STA-95: Beat the K Line with Monte Carlo Simulation
0%
Target Win Rate
N/A%
Current Best
0
Iterations
Model: Monte Carlo simulation with 50K+ runs per prediction
Baseline Formula: K_rate = -0.099 + 0.589×batter_k + 0.421×(batter_k - avg_pitcher_k) + 0.874×pitcher_game_k
Improvements: Pitch mix weighting, TBF modeling, recent form, umpire adjustments, platoon splits, park factors
Target: 60% win rate against historical K prop lines
Data Source: MLB daily pitcher stats, prop odds, scouting data