TE5 with unsustainable 18.3% TD rate; career-low 9.9 YPC; A.J. Brown exit reduces upside.
Goedert exploded for a career-high 11 TDs, nine double-digit fantasy weeks, and 12.3 FPTS/game over 15 games in 2025, but his production is heavily dependent on unsustainable TD rate. Goedert scored on 18.3% of his catches in 2025 versus a 6.9% TD rate over the rest of his career; applying his career 6.9% rate to 2025 would have yielded 4.1 TDs instead of 11, reducing weekly output by 2.76 points and sliding him from TE5 to TE18 in FPTS/game. Additionally, Goedert registered a career-low 9.9 yards per catch (TE26). While A.J. Brown's departure opened 120+ targets, it also reduces space for Goedert to create after the catch and generate large gains downfield. With rookies Makai Lemon and Eli Stowers folding into the offense, Goedert's staying power is expected to wane. The source views him as a fine stream to start the fall but not a TE1 fantasy producer his current rank promises.
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View Dallas Goedert 2026 fantasy football value pagePlayer profile with fantasy value, ADP, projections, news, and source-backed STACKED insightsGoedert scored on 18.3% of his catches last season, a massive spike compared to his 6.9% touchdown rate over the rest of his career. For context, a TD rate of 6.9% would have resulted in 4.1 scores, rather than 11 TDs last year. Subtracting the production specifically attributed to those 6.9 receiving scores would decrease Goedert's weekly output by 2.76 points per week, sliding him from the TE5 to the TE18 in fantasy points per game.