Fourth RB at 11.9 ADP; Hill/Waddle losses, Willis QB downgrade, McDaniels exit erode ecosystem.

Achane is being selected early in Round 2 as the fourth RB off the board despite significant ecosystem deterioration. While Achane posted 1,800+ scrimmage yards, 12 scores, and 20+ FPTS/game in 2025 with 24 runs of 15+ yards (RB1), the loss of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle removes field-stretching receivers, allowing defenses to key in on him. Only 55 of his 238 carries (23%) came against eight-plus defenders in the box in 2025, but that number is expected to skyrocket, proportionally dipping efficiency. Additionally, QB change from Tua Tagovailoa (5.3 targets per game to Achane, RB5) to Malik Willis—who has yet to attempt 25 passes in an NFL game and is more likely to scramble—removes his checkdown king. Mike McDaniels' exit further divests Achane of his premier running game coordinator. The source concludes Achane's 11.9 ADP is high risk rather than guaranteed reward given lost vertical threats, QB downgrade, and coaching change.

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