Overreacted-to at 50-to-1; 61% career win rate with healthy Collins and improved weapons.

Andrew Erickson presents CJ Stroud as a dark horse MVP candidate at 50-to-1 odds, arguing the market has overreacted to his poor playoff performances (five fumbles vs. Steelers, bad game vs. Patriots). Erickson notes Stroud is still a good quarterback and shouldn't be completely rewritten based on two bad games. He highlights Stroud's track record: won at least nine games every year of his career with the Texans, 23-14 record over his last 38 games (61% win rate, good for 10.5 wins over 17 games). The Texans started 0-3 last year but dug out and made the postseason. Erickson points to potential improvements: Nico Collins healthy, Jalen Noel and Jaden Higgins no longer on training wheels, and a potential run game. If the Texans win enough games and Stroud plays well in early matchups (Bills, Bengals), he could be in MVP conversation. Stroud showed elite pocket-passing ability in his rookie year.