Buffalo Rumblings on Brian Thomas Jr.

ArticleNFL trade deadline: Buffalo Bills trade candidate – Brian Thomas Jr.October 21, 2026

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his rookie season in 2024, when he caught 87 passes for 1,282 yards with 10 touchdowns. That year, he had a gaudy 2.45 yards-per-route-run figure and a drop rate of just 6.5%. Last season, Thomas had a YPRR of 1.45, and his drop rate jumped to 13.5% on 90 targets. Through six games in 2026, his YPRR is a pedestrian 0.95, and his drop rate is 25.0%.

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Negative signalProjection

BTJ's efficiency has cratered from 2.45 YPRR as rookie to 0.95 in 2026 with 25% drop rate.

BTJ's efficiency metrics have collapsed since his rookie season: 2024 YPRR was 2.45 with 6.5% drop rate (87 rec, 1,282 yards, 10 TDs); 2025 YPRR fell to 1.45 with 13.5% drop rate on 90 targets; through six games in 2026, YPRR is 0.95 with 25.0% drop rate. This represents a clear downward spiral in productivity and effectiveness.