Footballguys on Cam Newton

ArticleRegression Alert: Week 6
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Over his career, Cam Newton rushed for 77 touchdowns in 155 games, an average of 0.5 touchdowns per game... The standard deviation of Newton's rushing yardage is 24.5 yards. The standard deviation of Newton's rushing touchdowns is 0.65 touchdowns... The CV of Newton's yards is 64%, meaning it tends to vary by about 64% of his overall average. The CV of Newton's touchdowns is 130%. Touchdowns are much more random from week to week than yards are—in Newton's case, about twice as random, according to CV.

STACKED’s take

NeutralProjection

Newton's TDs are twice as volatile as yards; stochastic outcomes resist precise prediction.

Cam Newton's career rushing touchdown average is 0.5 per game (77 TDs in 155 games), but touchdowns are stochastic—binary outcomes that cannot be predicted precisely week-to-week despite conforming to a true production level over time; his rushing yardage is more consistent (38.6 yards per game average, 24.5-yard standard deviation) than his touchdown production (0.65 TD standard deviation), with a coefficient of variation of 64% for yards versus 130% for touchdowns, meaning touchdowns are roughly twice as random from week to week.

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