Big Cat Country on Brian Thomas Jr.
From the article
Baltimore's defense ranks bottom three in completion percentage (65.1%) and EPA per attempt (0.67) allowed on downfield passes. Minter's unit has also allowed in-breaking passes to be wide open by 5+ yards of separation at a league-worst 24.8% rate.
STACKED’s take
Thomas projected to score long TD; Baltimore allows league-worst separation on in-breaking routes.
The source predicts Brian Thomas Jr. will score his first long touchdown of 2026. His receiving over/under prop is set at 12.5 yards on FanDuel with +550 odds to score a touchdown. The prediction is supported by favorable matchup analysis: Baltimore's defense ranks bottom three in completion percentage (65.1%) and EPA per attempt (0.67) allowed on downfield passes, and Minter's unit has allowed in-breaking passes to be wide open by 5+ yards of separation at a league-worst 24.8% rate. The source notes Thomas has run only 3.3 deep routes per game this season compared to 5.1 in 2024 and 5.9 in 2025, with just 3 deep targets and zero catches on deep routes. The source frames this as a positive opportunity for Thomas to 'refinds his groove' and help Jacksonville's offense.
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