FantasyPros Articles on Brian Thomas Jr.
From the article
It's also disconcerting how much better BTJ played with Mac Jones than with Trevor Lawrence in 2024...In the nine games that Lawrence played the majority of the snaps in 2024, BTJ recorded 12.5 half-PPR points per game and 11.4 expected half-PPR points per game...the presence of Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers and Travis Hunter...work against BTJ's 2026 outlook.
STACKED’s take
BTJ's WR30 ADP is too steep given his Mac Jones dependency and emergence of Meyers and Washington.
Brian Thomas Jr. is a bust risk at ADP 74.0 (WR30) despite an electrifying rookie season (WR4 in half-PPR points with 240.5, tied for WR11 in half-PPR points per game at 14.1). His sophomore season was a stark falloff: WR43 in half-PPR points (114.8) and WR43 in half-PPR points per game (8.2), though he dealt with a wrist injury. A critical concern is his quarterback dependency: with Mac Jones playing 70%+ of snaps in eight games in 2024, BTJ averaged 16 half-PPR points per game and 17.6 expected half-PPR points per game; in nine games with Trevor Lawrence as the primary starter in 2024, he averaged only 12.5 half-PPR points per game and 11.4 expected half-PPR points per game. His career marks (9.9 half-PPR points per game, 11.5 expected half-PPR points per game) would rank 25th and 32nd respectively among 91 wideouts with 250+ routes in 2025. Recent performance is concerning: in the final four games of 2025, BTJ recorded only 2.8 receptions per game, 31.8 receiving yards per game, 1 TD, 6.1 half-PPR points per game, and 7.4 expected half-PPR points per game, with Jakobi Meyers (91.0% route participation), Parker Washington (77.4%), and Travis Hunter creating target competition.
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