From the video
he is also objectively the starting running back in a very good offense, in a very good scheme behind one of the league's best offensive lines... if he ends up running for eight to 10 touchdowns because he's just in a good offense, right place, right time, getting the workload of 12 to 15 carries a game, you could do a lot worse than the ninth round. he is a relatively good pass-catcher... Sean Payton offenses target the running back at such a high rate. Like, annually they're within the top three to five in terms of target share to the running back position... I could see this being a random, you know, variance problem where next year he's seeing two to three targets per game because he's playing so many of the snaps.
STACKED’s take
Ninth-round value with 8–10 rushing TD upside in elite offense despite injury risk.
Starting running back in a very good offense with one of the league's best offensive lines; the source projects 8–10 rushing touchdowns as a realistic outcome given his workload of 12–15 carries per game, despite injury risk. Touchdown variance was a major factor in his disappointing 2024 season (4 TDs in first five games, zero in next five), not a decline in role or efficiency. Ninth-round recommendation balances injury risk against upside in a Sean Payton scheme that historically targets running backs at a top-3 to top-5 rate. Untapped pass-catching upside in a Sean Payton offense; while Dobbins didn't catch passes at high volume last year, Sean Payton offenses historically target running backs at a top-3 to top-5 rate annually, including on early downs. The source projects potential variance where Dobbins could see 2–3 targets per game given his snap share, adding PPR value beyond rushing production.
J.K. DobbinsRB · DENPlayer page — value, ADP, projections, and every insight