From the video
he earns targets. Like he's he's the guy that you look at first target rate, he's at 16%, worthy's at 14. 16% is not particularly high and it's obviously not much higher than Worthy, but he has a 29% targets per out run to Worthy's 19%. Like he's the guy who actually has the connection with Mahomes who can get open.
STACKED’s take
Negative signalMatchup
16% target rate, 29% TPRR; positioned for bounceback vs weak Colts pass rush
Rice is the primary target earner for Mahomes with a 16% target rate and 29% targets per route run (vs. Worthy's 19%), indicating a strong connection and ability to get open. Against the Colts' weak pass rush and interior defense, Rice is positioned for a bounceback spot; the source expects him to benefit from Mahomes' increased completion volume and targets over the middle when first reads against Sauce Gardner or Ward are unavailable. Rice is sub-baseline in man coverage beating ability, but the Colts' defensive scheme and pass rush weakness mitigate that concern. The source believes Rice could approach double-digit targets in this matchup.
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