ESPN Fantasy Football on Matthew Stafford

ArticleFantasy football: Sleepers, busts and breakouts for 2026
Read the full article

From the article

I hate to say it as a staunch Rams fan, but Matthew Stafford is screaming regression for 2026. His 2025 MVP campaign was magical. At age 38, Stafford started all 17 games, led the league in passing yards (4,707) and set career highs in passing TDs (46) and TD% (7.7). It is extraordinarily likely that most, if not all, of those numbers take a dip in 2026. Even if he plays all 17 games again -- which at his age is also going to be hard to do -- it's going to be tough to match what he did in 2025. He also adds next to nothing with his legs. This year we're drafting Stafford as QB9, when in 2025 his price tag was QB20! I hate to admit this, but Stafford is likely going to disappoint fantasy managers who invest in him this season.

STACKED’s take

Negative signalBust

Stafford's age-38 regression risk and QB9 ADP make him a likely 2026 bust after MVP 2025.

Stafford is screaming regression for 2026 after his magical 2025 MVP campaign. At age 38, he started all 17 games, led the league in passing yards (4,707), and set career highs in passing TDs (46) and TD% (7.7). It is extraordinarily likely most or all of those numbers will decline in 2026. Even if he plays all 17 games again—difficult at his age—matching 2025 production will be tough. He adds next to nothing with his legs. Stafford is being drafted as QB9 when his 2025 price tag was QB20, making him likely to disappoint fantasy managers who invest in him.

Matthew Stafford headshotMatthew StaffordQB · LARPlayer page — value, ADP, projections, and every insight

More on Matthew Stafford and from ESPN Fantasy Football