Turf Show Times on Matthew Stafford

ArticlePFF QB Annual: Can Matthew Stafford replicate MVP season?
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According to PFF's interception modeling, Stafford threw nearly seven fewer interceptions than expected. While Stafford finished with single-digit interceptions with nine, he really should have been closer to 16 when all said and done.

STACKED’s take

Negative signalProjection

Stafford's nine interceptions benefited from ~7 fewer than expected; regression likely in 2026.

Stafford's 2025 MVP season benefited significantly from turnover luck that is primed for regression in 2026. According to PFF's interception modeling, he threw nearly seven fewer interceptions than expected; two came from turnover-worthy plays and 4.5 from pure good fortune on non-turnover-worthy throws. Additionally, opposing defenders dropped nine would-be interceptions. Stafford finished with nine interceptions but should have been closer to 16 when accounting for all luck factors. This regression risk could derail another MVP campaign and spoil LA's Super Bowl expectations.

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