BTJ's Year 2 collapse, target competition, and QB situation make bounce-back unlikely.

BTJ's Year 2 was rough: 48 catches for 707 yards and two touchdowns versus 1,282 yards and 10 TDs as a rookie. His drop rate was 11%, yards per route run fell from 2.45 to 1.45, and passer rating on throws to him dropped from 106.2 to 81.2. When Trevor Lawrence was hot down the stretch (265 yards, 18 TDs over final seven games), BTJ played in six games and averaged 3.0 receptions and 47.8 yards per game, catching just one of those 18 TDs. Though BTJ dealt with wrist, shoulder, and high-ankle sprain injuries, the source is skeptical of a bounce-back. Much of his rookie production came with Mac Jones at QB; with Lawrence in the first nine games, BTJ averaged 5.9 targets, 3.9 catches, and 66.1 yards per game, but from Week 10 on (mostly Mac Jones), he averaged 10.0 targets, 6.5 catches, and 85.9 yards per game. Target competition has intensified with Jakobi Meyers joining midseason and Parker Washington emerging as a breakout star late in the year. Travis Hunter, a two-way player, could be deployed as a cornerback and potential target thief. The source concludes this ecosystem does not set up well for a BTJ bounce-back.

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