Footballguys on Jonathan Taylor
From the article
Taylor led the NFL with 42.7 fantasy points scored from the 1-yard line, blowing away his averages over the previous five years. The Colts led the NFL in rushing TD% (51.9), which typically regresses the following season. Taylor led the league in touchdowns scored over expected.
STACKED’s take
Taylor's 18 TDs and 42.7 goal-line points are unsustainable; Colts' rushing TD% will regress.
After rushing for 1,585 yards and an NFL-high 18 touchdowns in 2025, Taylor was rewarded with a two-year, $44 million contract extension and is coming off draft boards as a top-five running back. However, the source identifies multiple regression risks. Taylor led the NFL with 42.7 fantasy points scored from the 1-yard line, blowing away his averages over the previous five years. The Colts led the NFL in rushing TD% (51.9%), which typically regresses the following season; over the past 25 NFL seasons, Indianapolis was one of the most efficient teams at the goal line, scoring a touchdown on 30-of-32 opportunities. Taylor led the league in touchdowns scored over expected. With a healthy Daniel Jones on the field, Taylor averaged 27.4 PPR points per game and was fantasy's top back last year; without Jones, that number dropped by almost 15 points per game. The source cites workload concerns, high touchdown totals, and offensive questions as red flags.
Jonathan TaylorRB · INDPlayer page — value, ADP, projections, and every insight