NFL - The Athletic on Bijan Robinson
From the article
the model sees Robinson as the league's top running back after an electric 2025 season, which saw him tally a league-high 2,298 scrimmage yards with incredible efficiency both on the ground and through the air...he would become the new king of running back contracts with a market-setting four-year, $87.6 million deal, putting him at almost $22 million per year...1,000 touches in three years tends to catch up to these guys quickly.
STACKED’s take
Elite 2025 season earns record RB deal, but heavy workload raises durability red flags.
Robinson is projected by the source's NFL Projection Model as the league's top running back after an electric 2025 season with a league-high 2,298 scrimmage yards and incredible efficiency, commanding a market-setting four-year, $87.6 million deal at nearly $22 million per year—surpassing Saquon Barkley's $20.6 million AAV as the most lucrative running back contract on a per-year basis in NFL history. However, the source raises significant durability concerns: Robinson has accumulated 1,003 touches in his first three seasons, substantially more than historical success stories like Saquon Barkley (646 touches) and Derrick Henry (580 touches). The source warns that 1,000 touches in three years tends to catch up to running backs quickly, and expresses skepticism about extending running backs given historical precedent with players like Ezekiel Elliott (1,078 touches before his extension, then cut before deal expired) and Todd Gurley (932 touches, released just two years after signing), who declined sharply after lucrative deals despite heavy early workloads.
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