NFL - The Athletic on Jahmyr Gibbs
From the article
The model didn't love Gibbs quite as much, as he graded out as the No. 4 back after a slightly 'down' season...he still racked up more than 1,800 scrimmage yards and scored 18 total touchdowns...1,000 touches in three years tends to catch up to these guys quickly.
STACKED’s take
Slightly down season still earns $79.6M deal, but heavy workload raises durability concerns.
Gibbs is ranked No. 4 running back by the source's NFL Projection Model after a slightly down season by his elite standards, during which he still accumulated over 1,800 scrimmage yards and 18 total touchdowns. The model projects a four-year, $79.6 million extension at $19.9 million per year, below both Robinson and Barkley, though the source notes Gibbs will likely receive more money than projected. However, the source raises significant durability concerns: Gibbs has accumulated 916 touches in his first three seasons, substantially more than historical success stories like Saquon Barkley (646 touches) and Derrick Henry (580 touches). The source warns that 1,000 touches in three years tends to catch up to running backs quickly, and expresses skepticism about extending running backs given historical precedent with players like Ezekiel Elliott (1,078 touches before his extension, then cut before deal expired) and Todd Gurley (932 touches, released just two years after signing), who declined sharply after lucrative deals despite heavy early workloads.
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