FantasyPros Articles on Brian Thomas Jr.
From the article
It could be a colossal mistake to fade a former first-round draft pick who had 1,282 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns as a rookie. But Year 2 for Thomas was rough: 48 catches for 707 yards and two touchdowns. His drop rate was 11%. His yards per route run fell by a full yard, from 2.45 to 1.45. The passer rating on throws to BTJ went from 106.2 as a rookie to 81.2 last year.
STACKED’s take
Thomas' Year 2 decline (2.45 to 1.45 YPRR) and QB/target competition make bounce-back unlikely.
Brian Thomas Jr. had a rough Year 2 after a strong rookie season: 48 catches for 707 yards and two touchdowns (vs. 1,282 yards and 10 TDs as a rookie). His drop rate was 11%, yards per route run fell from 2.45 to 1.45, and passer rating on throws to him dropped from 106.2 to 81.2. When Trevor Lawrence was cooking down the stretch (averaging 265 yards and 18 TDs over the final seven games), Thomas played in six of those seven games and averaged only 3.0 receptions and 47.8 yards per game, catching just one of those 18 TDs. Thomas was banged up with a wrist injury early, a shoulder injury at midseason, and a high-ankle sprain that cost him three games. However, Pat Fitzmaurice argues the bounce-back case is weak: much of his rookie production came with Mac Jones at QB, not Lawrence. With Lawrence in the first nine games, Thomas averaged 5.9 targets, 3.9 catches, and 66.1 yards per game; from Week 10 on (mostly Jones), he averaged 10.0 targets, 6.5 catches, and 85.9 yards per game. Target competition is stiffer now with Jakobi Meyers joining midseason and Parker Washington looking like a breakout star. Travis Hunter could also be a target thief. This ecosystem doesn't set up well for a Thomas bounce-back.
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