Footballguys on Caleb Williams

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The Madden cover, the MVP odds, and the seven fourth-quarter comebacks have built a reputation that Caleb Williams' production hasn't caught up to. He completed just 58 percent of his passes last season, sat in the bottom half of the league in passer rating, and was roughly average in efficiency per dropback, with a good chunk of his box-score value coming from late-game desperation drives.

STACKED’s take

Negative signalProjection

Williams' reputation exceeds production; 58% completion rate, bottom-half passer rating.

Maurile Tremblay notes that the Madden cover, MVP odds, and seven fourth-quarter comebacks have built a reputation that Caleb Williams' production hasn't caught up to. Williams completed just 58 percent of his passes last season, sat in the bottom half of the league in passer rating, and was roughly average in efficiency per dropback, with a good chunk of his box-score value coming from late-game desperation drives. The stated mandate for Williams in 2026 is to stop playing hero ball and take the checkdown more often, which will subdue his fantasy production.

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