Yahoo Sports NFL on Puka Nacua

Nacua 53% TD probability; elite vs. zone; Morris' 49ers will play zone almost exclusively.

Nacua is projected with a 53% chance of scoring a touchdown versus San Francisco in Week 1, per player models. The source notes Nacua rates as the top WR versus zone coverage at PFF and scored against the 49ers in both 2025 matchups, plus a touchdown against Atlanta (Morris' former club) at season's end. Nacua collected five of his 10 TDs versus zone coverage in 2025. New 49ers defensive coordinator Raheem Morris will almost exclusively employ zone coverage, playing into Nacua's elite zone-coverage matchup profile. Uncertainty around his status and a lingering hip injury have tempered his touchdown market.

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