From the episode
Devon A-Chan. He's so good... I've soured on him tremendously over this offseason... It's strictly situation... the loss of Mike McDaniel... you lose Tua, who I know isn't very good. By no means a Tua apologist... But he was good for A-Chan... A-Chan ranked third in target share among all NFL running backs in 2024... Tua ranked fifth in check down rate... enter Malik Willis, who is a run first quarterback... the Dolphins just stink... FanDuel has their total win line at four and a half... A-Chan was so dependent on that passing volume to be an elite fantasy asset... he's going as the seventh running back off the boarding PPR. That at that cost, I just can't do it.
STACKED’s take
Achane a bust at RB6-7 ADP; losing McDaniel and Tua's check-downs
Devon Achane is ranked running back 6 or 7 in PPR redraft and RB5 in Dynasty, but the source has grown increasingly bearish on him this offseason despite acknowledging his elite talent and efficiency. The primary concern is situational: loss of Mike McDaniel (who built the offense around Achane and previously elevated Raheem Mostert to RB2 overall in 2023 and Elijah Mitchell to RB20 in PPR points per game in 2021) and the departure of Tua Tagovailoa for Malik Willis. Tua ranked 5th in check-down rate among QBs with 200+ dropbacks in 2024, creating a perfect environment for Achane's passing-game success. Achane ranked 3rd in target share among all NFL running backs in 2024 and 2nd the prior year. Malik Willis is a run-first QB with the #1 scramble rate in the NFL last season and the 4th highest eight-odd of any QB with 50+ snaps—both metrics unfavorable for receiving volume. The Dolphins are projected to win 4.5 games (FanDuel), creating negative game scripts and poor field position. Achane accumulated 139.8 PPR points last year (RB5), with the passing work being the primary driver of his elite finish. The source projects that if passing work is cut by 30-50%, Achane will not justify his late first/early second round ADP. The source's conclusion: too much systemic risk at his current cost, despite his talent and efficiency.
De'Von AchaneRB · MIAPlayer page — value, ADP, projections, and every insight