Footballguys on Marquise Brown

ArticleRoundtable: Listening to the Little Voice
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Brown had 16 targets in Week 1 because Travis Kelce accidentally injured Xavier Worthy in the first quarter. For that specific game, the offense adjusted on a whim, having Brown play 93 percent of snaps. Over the duration of the season, Kansas City adjusted the offense, resulting in Brown averaging 3.9 targets and 50.3 percent of snaps per game.

STACKED’s take

Negative signalProjection

Brown was WR1 in Week 1 but finished WR3 or worse; boom was temporary injury-driven.

Corey Spala cites Marquise Brown as a historical example of Week 1 overreaction: Brown finished Week 1 as a WR1 (WR9 in rankings) but finished the season as a WR3 or worse. Spala details that Brown's Week 1 boom (16 targets, 93 percent snap share) was driven by a temporary circumstance—Travis Kelce accidentally injuring Xavier Worthy in the first quarter—which caused a one-game offensive adjustment. Over the full season, Kansas City adjusted the offense, and Brown averaged only 3.9 targets and 50.3 percent snap share per game, demonstrating that boom weeks driven by temporary circumstances do not sustain.

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