Analysts split on Irving; scheme fit and durability concerns outweigh receiving upside.

Irving splits analysts sharply. The bull case: Irving ranked sixth in rushing yards over expected in 2024 but dead last in 2025, a decline traceable to Tampa Bay's offensive line collapsing from 2nd to 22nd in adjusted line yards due to injuries. His receiving profile is strong—1.56 yards per route run for his career, well ahead of new addition Kenny Gainwell's 1.19—and he caught 47 passes as a rookie despite limited early-season usage. The new coordinator compared his passing-game skill set and versatility to Bijan Robinson, whom he coached in Atlanta. Even in an injury-marred 2025, Irving averaged 20.3 touches per game. The bear case: Irving faced stacked boxes on just 3.5% of carries last year (one of the lowest rates), likely because of the dangerous deep threat now gone; defenses could stack more often. Durability is a concern—foot sprain, shoulder issues in 2025; hip, back, toe, hamstring problems in 2024. His splits are scheme-sensitive: 3.66 yards per carry on zone-blocking versus 6.5 on man/gap concepts, and the new coordinator leaned heavily on outside zone in Atlanta. Kenny Gainwell isn't expected to sit on the bench and could cut into workload. When pressed on direct comparisons, both analysts preferred Javonte Williams over Irving given his more locked-in volume, were mixed on Cam Skattebo, and preferred Irving over Quinshon Judkins and a Kamara-blocked backfield elsewhere.

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