QB7 at pick 60; rushing volume decline (600+ to 421 yards) is clearest bounce-back path.

Hurts disappointed relative to expectations and ADP last season and is currently going as QB7 around pick 60 overall, a range the source views as a buying opportunity. The bull case leans on Hurts' track record of proving doubters wrong: he improved as a passer every year in college, faced real skepticism entering his second season as a starter, then broke out, earned a massive contract, and reached multiple Super Bowls, winning MVP in one of them. That all happened under offensive coordinators who haven't gone on to get head coaching or play-calling opportunities elsewhere, viewed as a sign those systems leaned heavily on explosive plays rather than fully developing the offense around him. With new weapons in the receiving room this year and a new play caller, another leap is possible. The comparison drawn is to another star quarterback also getting a new play caller this year, despite that quarterback finishing last season on one of the worst stretches of his career. The more measured view is less about aggressively drafting Hurts and more about accepting the discount when it's there in a live draft. The clearest path to a bounce back is rushing volume: Hurts topped 600 rushing yards in each of the two seasons before last year, then dropped to 421, and his rushing touchdown total fell to eight after previously reaching double digits. More called quarterback runs, including short-yardage sneaks, could push his rushing production and touchdown total back toward his earlier norms.

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