Footballguys on Jake Ferguson
From the article
Ferguson has emerged as a reliable target for Dak Prescott in a high-scoring Dallas offense, which has led to solid fantasy production. Last year, Ferguson set career highs in catches and touchdowns on the same number of targets as he had in 2023. In fact, Ferguson has handled a 17 percent target share each of the past three seasons, and he's coming off a 2025 campaign in which he ranked third among tight ends in receptions, touchdowns, and end-zone targets (10). He finished the season as TE4 overall, and his nine top-12 fantasy weeks tied for second-most at the position.
STACKED’s take
TE4 finisher undervalued at TE11 ADP; ninth-round fair value with consistent 17% target share.
Ferguson's TE11 ADP undervalues his 2025 production: he finished TE4 overall with career highs in catches and touchdowns, ranked third among tight ends in receptions, touchdowns, and end-zone targets (10), and posted nine top-12 fantasy weeks (tied for second-most at position). He has maintained a consistent 17% target share over three consecutive seasons. The source rates him TE8 on its rankings and recommends a ninth-round pick as fair value, arguing that a third top-10 finish in four seasons is realistic and that fantasy investors may be overreacting to his injury-marred 2024 season. His role as a reliable target in Dallas's high-scoring offense is supported by historical precedent: the 2021 Cowboys situation with Lamb, Amari Cooper, and Michael Gallup led to the emergence of then-tight end Dalton Schultz, who averaged double-digit yards per reception in consecutive seasons. Ferguson replicated that double-digit yards-per-reception mark in 2023, the first year Schultz was gone, and is positioned to benefit similarly from Lamb and Pickens drawing coverage.
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