Buffalo Rumblings on James Cook
From the article
Buffalo Bills running back James Cook had his second fumble of the season... Cook's fumble rate has jumped to 2.01 per 100 touches... Running backs with high fumbling rates — like Cook since the start of 2025 — have enjoyed major regression to the mean eventually.
STACKED’s take
Cook's fumble spike is concerning but historical data predicts regression to the mean.
Cook's fumble rate has spiked to 2.01 per 100 touches since the start of 2025, placing him in the top 20% of fumble-prone running backs and raising immediate concern. However, a 25-year historical study of NFL running backs shows strong regression to the mean: the most fumble-prone backs in Year 1 (2.17 per 100 touches) nearly cut their fumble rate in half the following season (1.24 per 100 touches). While Cook's career fumble rate is 1.25 per 100 touches and his pre-2025 rate as a Bill was just 0.80, the source predicts his elevated 2025 fumble rate will regress downward based on historical precedent, despite eight fumbles in his last 14 games (including playoffs) sounding alarm bells.
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