Fantasy Football Week 1: Key Questions for Every Matchup | Rankings, Breakouts & Concerns (Ep. 2187)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 9 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 12, 2026
Published
Sat, September 12, 2026
36
Player insights
35
Players mentioned
Topics
David MontgomeryBijan RobinsonBraelon AllenCarnell TateCeeDee LambChris GodwinChris OlaveChristian McCaffreyChristian WatsonDalton KincaidDeebo SamuelDrake LondonDrake MayeGeorge Pickens
Player analysis
Player insights
Bijan Robinson
PositiveUsage43:56
Bijan Robinson remains a must-start regardless of the Falcons' quarterback situation, as he is expected to command significant rushing volume and check-down targets.
Insight pageBraelon Allen
PositiveUsage47:59
Fitz expects Braylon Allen to receive more work than anticipated, citing the Jets' desire to use a multi-pronged backfield and Breece Hall's recent groin injury as reasons to limit Hall's workload.
Insight pageCarnell Tate
PositiveProjection49:02
Debro is above consensus on Carnell Tate, arguing that his poor preseason performance was a result of Cam Ward's struggles rather than his own talent, and noting the Jets' secondary is weak.
Insight pageCeeDee Lamb
PositiveUsage69:10
Fitz projects a heavy workload for CeeDee Lamb, anticipating 11 targets, 7 catches, 93 yards, and a touchdown, noting his efficiency against two-high coverage.
Insight pageChris Godwin
NegativeValue23:29
The source is slightly lower than consensus on Chris Godwin due to concerns about his recovery from a 2024 ankle injury and his career-low 7.1 yards per target last season, though he remains a decent play in a high-scoring environment.
Insight pageChris Olave
PositiveProjection28:35
Chris Olave is a high-upside play against a Lions secondary missing both starting safeties. The Saints are expected to rely on the pass, and Olave has the potential to finish as a top-three wide receiver this week.
Insight pageChristian McCaffrey
PositiveUsage1:59
The source notes that Christian McCaffrey's lower snap share in the season opener was due to preseason lower-body tightness and the unusual circumstances of the game in Australia, rather than a permanent role change. He still recorded 15 opportunities and eight targets, looking explosive despite the limited snap count.
Insight pageChristian Watson
PositiveValue41:46
The source ranks Christian Watson at WR18, slightly ahead of Parker Washington (WR21), because he is considered more integral to his team's offensive success.
Insight pageDalton Kincaid
PositiveMatchup27:23
Dalton Kincaid is identified as the X-factor for the Bills against the Texans. Houston's defense allowed the 7th most receiving fantasy points per game to tight ends from weeks 12-18 last year, making Kincaid the only Bills pass-catcher outside of James Cook that the source is willing to start.
Insight pageDavid Montgomery
PositiveUsage30:46
David Montgomery is the only player from the Houston offense that the source is confident in starting for Week 1, as the team is expected to lean heavily on the run game.
Insight pagePositiveValue71:09
Fitz identifies David Montgomery over 54.5 rushing yards as a four-star prop bet, citing the Texans' upgraded offensive line as a reason he will clear the bar.
Insight pageDeebo Samuel
PositiveProjection5:21
Deebo Samuel looked slim, trim, and explosive in his season opener, recording a stat line nearly identical to Mike Evans with six catches for 48 yards, a touchdown, and a 12-yard carry.
Insight pageDrake London
NegativeProjection44:02
Drake London's fantasy outlook has been downgraded to WR11-12 due to uncertainty at the quarterback position and a tough matchup against the Steelers' defense.
Insight pageDrake Maye
NegativeProjection5:49
The source is not concerned about Drake Maye's three-interception performance, attributing it to facing a high-level Seattle defense and a game script where he felt forced to play 'YOLO mode' to win the game late.
Insight pageGeorge Pickens
PositiveUsage69:10
Fitz projects 10 targets, 6 catches, 90 yards, and a touchdown for George Pickens, highlighting that his splits against two-high coverage have improved significantly.
Insight pageIsaiah Likely
PositiveValue71:57
Debro recommends betting the over on Isaiah Likely's receiving yards, noting he could be the clear number two in the passing attack and the Cowboys struggled against tight ends last year.
Insight pageJalen Coker
PositiveSleeper15:24
Jalen Coker is a strong sleeper play against the Bears because Kyler Gordon is out, leaving the secondary vulnerable. He and McMillan showed similar target shares late last season, making Coker a viable low-end WR3 or high-end WR4.
Insight pageJames Cook
NegativeUsage27:00
James Cook is considered a must-start player for the Bills offense, regardless of the difficult matchup against the Texans' defense.
Insight pageJonathan Taylor
NegativeMatchup34:16
The source is worried about Jonathan Taylor's performance against the Ravens, citing the Ravens' strong run defense down the stretch last year and uncertainty about whether Taylor will immediately return to his previous elite scoring form.
Insight pageJordan Love
PositiveProjection65:52
Debro ranks Jordan Love higher than Kyler Murray for Week 1, noting Love's success against the blitz, which he expects Brian Flores to utilize heavily.
Insight pageJordan Mason
PositiveRole60:58
Fitz ranks Jordan Mason at RB26, believing he is the lead back for the Vikings in a redesigned run scheme that fits him well, while Aaron Jones will serve as a change-of-pace back.
Insight pageJosh Allen
NegativeMatchup23:59
Josh Allen has historically struggled against the Texans, posting two of his three lowest quarterback ratings in games against them and finishing as QB22 and QB19 in those matchups. Despite the tough matchup and the Texans' elite defense, the source ranks him as QB5, noting that his rushing upside makes him impossible to bench, even if it is a frustrating start for fantasy managers.
Insight pageJuwan Johnson
PositiveValue33:26
Juwan Johnson is a strong start at tight end because the Lions' defense struggles against the position when their starting safeties, Brian Branch and Kirby Joseph, are absent. The source ranks him as a top-seven tight end for the week.
Insight pageKyle Pitts
NegativeProjection44:18
Kyle Pitts has been bumped down to TE8 in the rankings due to the Falcons' offensive instability and quarterback concerns.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
NegativeProjection32:15
Lamar Jackson is ranked as the QB1 for the week, though the source expresses some nervousness regarding his first game under a new play-caller, Declan Doyle. Despite concerns about the offensive line and pass-catching group, his rushing floor keeps him at the top of the position.
Insight pageMarShawn Lloyd
PositiveUsage63:01
Debro ranks MarShawn Lloyd just outside the top 24, expecting him to see 15-17 opportunities including pass-game work, and is optimistic about his potential against the Vikings' run defense.
Insight pageMarvin Harrison Jr.
NegativeProjection53:04
Fitz ranks Marvin Harrison Jr. at WR30, slightly ahead of consensus, but suggests lowering expectations for superstar production while still anticipating a potential step forward in the new offense.
Insight pageMichael Mayer
PositiveValue56:53
Debro ranks Michael Mayer as a high-end TE2 (TE13) with Brock Bowers out, citing Kirk Cousins' history of being tight-end friendly and the Dolphins' inexperienced defensive backfield.
Insight pageMike Evans
PositiveRole4:04
Mike Evans does not look washed and is benefiting from an offensive play-caller who moves him around the formation rather than forcing him to win exclusively on the perimeter.
Insight pageNico Collins
NegativeMatchup31:13
The source expresses concern about Nico Collins in this matchup, noting that Bills cornerback Christian Benford is an elite defender who may shadow him, potentially limiting his production to under 50 yards.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveBreakout39:36
Parker Washington is a high-upside play for Week 1, with the source projecting a stat line of 6-9 catches for 80+ yards. The matchup against Cleveland's slot corner, who struggled significantly last year, makes Washington a prime target for targets.
Insight pagePatrick Mahomes
NegativeProjection73:48
Fitz is not optimistic about Patrick Mahomes in Week 1, ranking him QB22 and expecting fewer passing attempts as the team manages his return from injury.
Insight pageQuentin Johnston
PositiveProjection52:09
Debro likes Quentin Johnston for a big game against the Cardinals, noting he was the Chargers' WR1 when healthy last year and the Cardinals' secondary struggled against perimeter receivers.
Insight pageTetairoa McMillan
PositiveValue8:50
The source views Tetairoa McMillan as undervalued at his consensus ranking (WR16/17) given the favorable matchup against a weak Bears defense that lacks a pass rush. He has the potential to ascend into the tier of elite wide receivers like CeeDee Lamb or George Pickens.
Insight pageTyjae Spears
PositiveUsage47:53
Fitz is above consensus on Tyjae Spears, ranking him at RB39 and noting that the Titans backfield will be a tighter timeshare than expected; preseason usage showed Spears and Tony Pollard splitting snaps evenly.
Insight pageWan'Dale Robinson
PositiveUsage49:53
The source is above consensus on Wan'Dale Robinson, noting his familiarity with Brian Daboll and projecting him to catch enough passes to provide a solid PPR floor, even if he lacks superstar upside.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Call 1-800-GRANGER, click Grainger.com, or stop by.
0:05Grainger, for the ones who get it done. I'm going to talk to you guys every single week.
0:11We have two fewer games, so I guess one fewer game than usual, because we usually do have a Thursday game, because
0:19we have gotten a couple of games already this week, a Wednesday and a Thursday game to kick things off.
0:27Fitz, we're going to dive right in just because we have a lot of games to get to and not that much time to get through them.
0:36But for those games we have seen, do you have any sort of early takeaways?
0:42It could be from the injury-riddled Game 1, I guess there's injuries in Game 2, but really only one team has shown up for fantasy managers so far.
0:52How are you feeling after those first two games?
0:55Yeah, I guess not totally shocked that defenses are ahead of the offenses at this early stage in Week 1 with a three-week preseason.
1:03Well, at least defenses ahead of the offenses in three out of four cases.
1:09The 49ers look pretty sharp for the most part.
1:12Yeah, and just usage was a little wonky in Week 1 in some cases, especially in the Australia game.
1:19I don't think people, CMC investors should be panicking that Kalen Black had more carries than Christian McCaffrey.
1:25Like, Christian McCaffrey was dealing with some lower body tightness in the preseason, and I just don't think, even though Kyle Shanahan
1:33is usually happy to give CMC 25 touches, I don't think he wanted to do that in Australia with the unusual circumstances of that game.
1:42Yeah, D-Bro, can you really take anything away from this game?
1:46I mean, even negative or positive. To me, it feels like it's just we're going to look back on this regardless of
1:54what happens the rest of the season and say, hey, just chalk it up to, like, travel weirdness.
2:00But, having said that, I do think there is a chance that the Niners are just, like, the team that, hey, we
2:08were all overlooking this summer because everybody likes Seattle and Los Angeles so much, and they actually are.
2:14This was an announcement that they're really good. What do you think's more likely, that we're taking nothing away from this game,
2:22or that the Niners are actually going to be pretty darn good this season?
2:27I think the biggest takeaway that we had all offseason is still the biggest takeaway for the 49ers.
2:34Their health is going to determine their season. Can they stay healthy?
2:38If they can stay healthy, they're still one of the most talented rosters in the NFL.
2:44And for everybody's offseason shade, boys, Mike Evans doesn't look washed at all.
2:49And now he's with an offensive play caller that's going to move him around the freaking formation and not ask him to just win versus on the perimeter.
2:59That was fantastic to see. But to Fitzy's point also about Christian McCaffrey, I mean, guys, like, yeah, like, he didn't play the 90% plus snaps.
3:08Dude still got freaking eight targets, 15 opportunities. And unless people were watching a different game than I was watching, he looked really explosive in that game.
3:18So a lot of really good takeaways for Christian McCaffrey.
3:21And I'll also give a shout out to Debo Samuel looking slim, trim and explosive back with the 49ers jersey on his back, man.
3:30Looking good. I was going to say he had almost an identical stat line to Mike Evans.
3:36Evans six for 49 and a touchdown. Debo six for 48 and a touchdown.
3:41So a couple of elder states. And a 12-yard carry.
3:45Yes, and the carry as well. Just very quickly, like 20 seconds on Drake May.
3:50What is your guys' concern level from that game?
3:53Just for him, for fantasy purposes, I'm not saying he's like a bad quarterback or whatever.
3:59But if, you know, AJ Brown missing at least a month, him throwing three interceptions, it was against a really, really good defense.
4:07Debo, any concern level whatsoever? No, I'm not concerned.
4:10It felt like very much where most of the game he was taking with the defense was given him.
4:17He went YOLO mode at the very end of it.
4:21Felt like he had to try to win it by himself.
4:25Same thing he was doing in the Super Bowl.
4:28If they put Romeo Dobbs into the Stefan Diggs light role, I think the Patriots can keep this ship afloat until AJ Brown is back.
4:37Fitz, any just quick reaction to Drake May's down game?
4:40Seattle's got a great defense and a great defensive mastermind in Mike McDonald.
4:45And Drake May didn't play well, but he will have better games.
4:49Yep. All right. Let's dive into the rest of our Friday show.
4:54We're going to go through game by game here, sort of in schedule order.
4:59And we're going to talk about one key question from every matchup.
5:03So it won't hit every single team, but it will hit every single matchup.
5:08And a lot of the questions will hit both teams.
5:12We'll get through as much as we can here on this show every week.
5:17Reminder for everybody, all of our 2026 consensus rankings and tiers throughout every week in terms of your start-sit decisions can be found at fantasypros.com slash rankings.
5:26Game number one, guys, Bears at Panthers. Key question here.
5:30I know we have question marks about the Carolina offense, but is Tetairoa McMillan a bit under-ranked by week one consensus at
5:38wide receiver 17 when he has a matchup against what we expect to be one of the worst defenses in football?
5:45Fitz, you have talked a lot about this Bears defense on shows this summer, so I'll start with you.
5:52Is Ted O'Roy McMillan a little bit under-ranked at wide receiver 17 by consensus?
5:57Yeah, the Bears defense is going to be really bad.
6:01And I think even Bears fans here in Chicago—I'm, of course, not among them.
6:06I'm a Packers fan. But Bears fans have no illusions about their defense.
6:10Like, it's going to be open season on the Chicago Bears.
6:14They're going to play in a ton of shootouts because their offense is really good.
6:20Their defense is really bad. And one of their bright spots on defense is Jalen Johnson, really good cornerback, although, you know,
6:28he hasn't been fully healthy recently when he's been less than healthy.
6:32He hasn't always been a tip-top cornerback. But I think he's going to get some face time with Ted O'Roy McMillan in this game.
6:41But still, it's really hard for any cornerback to hold up in coverage and for zone coverages to keep their shape when the pass rush can't get home.
6:51And lack of pass rush is just this glaring problem for the Bears.
6:55So I think this is a really favorable matchup for McMillan, who I think has a chance to, like, ascend into the,
7:03you know, if not the top tier with the Jamar Chase Puka Nakua category.
7:08At least, like, the CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens category of wide receivers.
7:13I mean, the guy had 1,000 yards as a rookie catching passes from a below-average quarterback.
7:18And he did it as an early-declare rookie. So, yeah, I'm pro-Tet.
7:23And I've got him, I think, wide receiver 12 this week.
7:27I was going to say that the consensus has updated since I put together the sheet.
7:32He has moved up only by one spot. So he's no longer a wide receiver 17.
7:38His wide receiver 16. Still feels a little low, especially compared to Fitz's ranking.
7:43But I wanted to mention for transparency there that he has moved up a little bit already just earlier this week.
7:51Debro, where are you at on Tetairoa McMillan? Again, really good player.
7:55Questionable environment. But a great matchup to have going up against this defense.
8:00So with all those factors combined, where is he ranked for you?
8:04I think he's a fantastic player. My problem with Ted has not been a Ted problem.
8:10It's been the questionable quarterback play. Is the matchup fantastic?
8:13Yes. The problem is I still have questions about what is the passing volume going to be?
8:19Now, maybe the Chicago Bears force the Carolina Panthers and they get out to an early lead to force Bryce Young to chuck it.
8:28It's a fantastic matchup, as we've all kind of alluded to here for Ted Aromac-Millan.
8:33I'm also on a coverage perspective because week 17 on Chicago leaned into single high 58% of their snaps.
8:40On the defensive side, Ted versus single high, 26 target per run rate, 2.06 yards per run last year against single high.
8:48So that's awesome. I just don't know what the target ceiling looks like for Ted in week one.
8:54So if the game script goes favorable for Carolina to throw the ball more than maybe I'm expecting, can he be a wide receiver one this week?
9:04Yeah, it's definitely possible. I do have Ted right now.
9:08I'm with consensus. I've got him at wide receiver 17.
9:11So I think the rankings appropriate based off the target volume I'm expecting.
9:16But can he outplay it? Absolutely. But also, to the positive Ted side, this is also a fantastic matchup for Jalen Coker.
9:24I don't want that to get lost either because Kyler Gordon's not playing in this game.
9:30He's facing the same garbage secondary in week one.
9:33And if you look at when both these guys were healthy in weeks 13 through 19, including the playoffs, target shares weren't that different, boys.
9:42So I think that both these guys can eat.
9:45Where's Coker ranked for you, Debra? Oh, Coker, Coker, Coker.
9:49Where are you at? I will have him comfortably probably inside my top 40 wide receivers.
9:54I'm still looking for him in my ranks right now.
9:58I've got my wide receiver 42, but honestly, I've still got to go through ranks and stuff like that.
10:05He's going to be a back end, low end wide receiver 3, high end 4 for me.
10:11Probably wide receiver, low 30s. Fitz, wide receiver 45 for Coker and consensus.
10:15Too high, too low, just right? I've got 49.
10:19No major issues with that ranking. I'm kind of in line.
10:23I just I don't think we're going to see anything like Tedderone McMillan and Jalen Coker are not going to have anything
10:31close to the same target volume this year, though.
10:34That I would push back on that in a big way.
10:38Did last year? No, they did late last year.
10:41But like that's not that's a small sample size.
10:44We are not going to see that over the long haul.
10:48Like they're just not in the same class of player, Debra.
10:52They're all okay. All right. We'll see how it works out, Fitzy.
10:56By the way, Tetairoa McMillan plus 1100 plus 1200, depending when you look for a first touchdown score.
11:03If you like him to have a big game.
11:06Hmm. And if I kind of think Carolina might come out and say like, hey, he didn't get enough touchdowns last year.
11:14Let's really prioritize this early this year. I think it might be worth a sprinkle.
11:19Let's go to the next game here. Bucks at Bengals.
11:23This game has the highest total on the week's slate.
11:26The only game over 50 with high scoring expectations.
11:30Give me one player each that you are actually lower than consensus on.
11:34We think this is going to be a high scoring game.
11:38Let's see who we're maybe fading a little bit in this one.
11:43Debra, I'll start with you. If DJ Turner plays in this game, I am lower on Emeka Ibuka.
11:49And right now it is up in the air if he plays or not.
11:54He popped up with a hamstring injury in the middle of the week.
11:59Still managed a limited practice. We got to see what the practice reports look like for the rest of the week and what his game designation is.
12:08But if DJ Turner is active in this game, I am extremely worried about Emeka Ibuka.
12:14Because if you look at DJ Turner, maybe he was one of the best shadow corners of the entire freaking NFL last year.
12:22He shadowed DK Metcalf twice, Justin Jefferson once, Romeo Dobbs, Zay Flowers twice.
12:27Yeah, you could throw Gabe Davis in there. He followed each one of those guys on 60% of their routes in those matchups.
12:35Only allowed one receiving touchdown. And only Justin Jefferson surpassed 70 receiving yards in his coverage.
12:41Even if you zoom out from a 100-foot view, this is not a good coverage matchup for Emeka Ibuka.
12:48When he was at the height of his powers last year, weeks one through five.
12:53And this goes back to, again, single high coverage.
12:56Cincinnati used this at 57% of the defensive snaps last year.
13:00Weeks one through five, Emeka Ibuka, while he was crushing opposing defenses versus single high in that stretch, 1.36 yards per route run.
13:09So if Turner is active, since he rolls back the single high of last year, I am very worried about Emeka Ibuka.
13:17And I would be very consistent in being a tad below consensus walking into this game this week.
13:23But to the flip side of this, if Turner is out, I will be at least at consensus with Ibuka despite the coverage matchup.
13:32Okay. Debra, I just want to ask because we got a lot of questions on the live stream we did yesterday about Christian Watson and Parker Washington.
13:41Those three guys, Ibuka, Washington, and Watson, are all within four spots of each other in consensus.
13:47Do you like Ibuka better than those guys or worse, or is that just entirely dependent on DJ Turner?
13:54Watson and Washington over them. Over Ibuka, even if Turner's out.
13:58Okay. Fitz, what is a player in this matchup that you are fading?
14:03Who is a guy that you're looking at that you maybe are a little lower than consensus on?
14:09Chris Godwin. I'm two spots below ECR on him.
14:13I've got him at wide receiver 34. It's not so much about the matchup because DJ Turner does factor into this.
14:20I'm kind of propping up Godwin because I think if Turner plays, that could funnel a few extra targets Godwin's way.
14:28I just worry Godwin isn't the same player he was before that gruesome ankle injury midway through the 2024 season.
14:35Last year, they had to shut down Godwin early in the year because of lingering issues.
14:41Averaged a career low 7.1 yards per target last season.
14:44But, you know, it is a good scoring environment in this game with the high Vegas total, as you mentioned, Worm.
14:52And maybe if Turner isn't playing, like I'm probably going to drop Godwin another spot or two just because that would kind of elevate Ibuka.
15:01I feel the same way that Debro does about Turner.
15:04I mean, he is one of the unheralded stars of the NFL.
15:08Yeah, he's going to get paid. So Fitz, then if you're lower on Godwin, are you higher on Ibuka than Debro is?
15:16Because, you know, with the game, we think it's going to be a high scoring game.
15:22The passes are going to have to go somewhere or.
15:26Wide receiver 22. OK, so just one spot ahead of consensus.
15:30I think I'm I think I'm a little ahead of consensus on Jalen McMillan for whatever that's worth.
15:36Sure. I don't think many people in week one with fully healthy starting lineups are starting Jalen McMillan, but you never know.
15:44He's like a wide. Baby low and wide receiver five or something like that.
15:49So he's wide receiver 64 in consensus. Debro are sort of the reverse question.
15:54Are you higher on Godwin since you're lower on Ibuka?
15:58I am higher on Godwin. I am a wide receiver 29.
16:02I think it's a good coverage matchup for him.
16:05I do share Fitz's concerns about like, what does he got left in the tank?
16:10I'm a little bit higher on him only because if you look at.
16:15Just weeks 13 through 18 when he came back last year, only a 16% target share, but he was producing 1.88 yards
16:23per route run 0.107 first downs per route run.
16:26Those are really solid numbers. So I we got to see it, though.
16:31I have concerns about which version of Chris Godwin we see this year, but I do really like him.
16:37Like I've already bet his over receiving artage market or excuse me, his prop for week one.
16:44And I will be above consensus on him because if Turner plays, I'm very worried about Ibuka.
16:50Next game, Saints at Lions. This game has the second highest total on the slate.
16:55It's just under 50 at 49 and a half on betting pros consensus odds.
17:00That's betting pros dot com. Unlike the last question, let's lean into the fun of the high number.
17:06Give me a player ranked highly in this matchup who you expect to have an even better game than his high ranking would suggest.
17:15Debra, I'll start with you. Chris Alave. I don't care that he's a top 10 wide receiver already.
17:22Like he could be a top three wide receiver this week.
17:25Like we're going against this secondary. If Tyler Shuck is slinging the ball, there's so many different paths for Chris Alave to crush.
17:34I mean, if you look at last year, weeks 12 through 18, Detroit Lions give it the fourth most fantasy points per target.
17:42Perimeter wide receivers, 10th most yards per target. They were terrible against guarding against the deep ball.
17:48Give it the second most deep passing yards per game in that stretch as well.
17:53They have both their starting safeties out. I'm not worried about any of their starting corners that they're going to run out there.
18:02Terry and Arnold's not on this roster anymore. We know that the total is high.
18:07We know there's going to be points. We know Tyler Shuck is going to have to freaking throw the ball.
18:14This is also more of a pass funnel than I don't think the Saints are going to have a lot of success
18:22running the ball in this matchup against the Lions defensive line.
18:26So all signs for this game point me back to Chris Alave.
18:30The consensus odds, six and a half receptions, 76 and a half receiving yards.
18:35Those aren't small numbers, but I feel really attainable in this matchup.
18:40Yeah, I mean, he could go for 100 and like 100 receiving yards and two touchdowns in this game.
18:47He's wide receiver seven and consensus. You mentioned that you could see him being wide receiver three.
18:53You can't really rank him that high just given some names.
18:57And obviously guys like Jason and Puka have already played and were ranked more highly.
19:02So the ranking isn't going to reflect that. But obviously just somebody that you are very, very high on for this week.
19:10Fitz, who stands out to you, a player that's ranked highly that you are even higher on than consensus?
19:17I'm thinking along the same lines Debro is like without Brian Branch and Kirby Joseph, those Lions safeties.
19:23Detroit is a pass defense we're going to want to attack early in the year because Branch and Joseph are both like star caliber guys.
19:32And when they played full seasons in 2023, we know that safeties are largely responsible for tight end coverage.
19:39They played full seasons in 2023. The Lions allowed the second fewest fantasy points to tight ends.
19:45And then last year, Branch missed five games. Joseph missed 11 games and the Lions were middle of the pack against tight ends.
19:5315th fewest fantasy points allowed with both guys out.
19:56I mean, I think tight ends are going to hammer Detroit until those guys are back.
20:02So I want to lean into that with Juwan Johnson.
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21:36Toyota, let's go places. Debra, I asked, fits this already on the Thursday show, so I want to ask you, because I
21:44think a lot of us are really excited about Juwan Johnson this week.
21:49There was a very consensus top eight tight ends in draft season.
21:53One of those was Bowers, so set him aside for now.
21:57That leaves a consensus top seven from draft season that are ranked as the top seven in consensus for week one.
22:05McBride, Loveland, Warren, Pitts, LaPorta, Craft, Fan. And don't worry about the order.
22:09Those are the seven. Do you think Juwan Johnson deserves to be ranked eighth right behind them, or even within that top
22:17seven ahead of those guys who are going well ahead in draft season, given the matchup and the opportunity here?
22:24Or do you still have them outside of that range?
22:28Why does Kyle Pitts, why should it be ranked above Juwan Johnson?
22:32I just realized I have Johnson ahead of Pitts, so he's actually tight end seven.
22:38Okay, so I've got Johnson tight end seven right ahead of Pitts.
22:42He belongs ahead of one of those guys. Yeah, Pitts is tight end four, by the way, in consensus.
22:49Does everybody realize Cooper Rush could be starting that game?
22:52Right. I mean, just saying. Well, I went in a week ago.
22:57I was feeling pretty good that my two tight ends in the Dynasty League that we're all in were Bowers and Pitts.
23:04And now I'm like, what am I going to do with one already?
23:09I was like, Debra, you were talking of Kate Otten on the stream yesterday.
23:14Should I start him over Pitts? I mean. Based on the quarterback.
23:18I don't know that I can actually do that.
23:22I don't know if I can actually do that.
23:25But, I mean, dude, like Kyle, whatever way, you know, we'll get to that one later.
23:31But, John Johnson, I'm with you. So, Johnson, you guys do have inside your top seven.
23:36Okay, so, like, very, very much a guy you're trying to look at.
23:41Would you consider starting him in the flex? I mean, it's not really likely that you guys would need to this early in the season.
23:50Again, people are still pretty full rosters. But if you like the matchup that much, would either of you consider a flex spot?
23:58Tight end premium, regular scoring. And no. I mean, I just don't think there's enough injuries and there's not enough, like, there's
24:06no bye weeks and stuff like that. So, I don't think you have to go there.
24:12Okay. Yeah. All right. If you want to win a Todd Gurley signed Rams jersey, then this is your shot.
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24:39All right. Bills at Texans. Key question here. Across the last two seasons, two of Josh Allen's three lowest quarterback ratings in
24:47any individual games have come in his two matchups against the Texans defense.
24:52And he's finished as QB 22 and QB 19 in those two games.
24:57Now, the Texans look better on defense than ever.
25:00What are your expectations for the Bills offense in this one, Fitz?
25:04Yeah. Boy, Josh Allen does not like the city of Houston, does he?
25:09Last year, 253 yards, no touchdowns, two interceptions in a Bills loss.
25:13In 2024, Allen was 9 of 30 for 131 yards in a road loss to the Texans.
25:19Much earlier in his career, rookie year, threw for 84 yards and no touchdowns in one of his starts.
25:26And then Josh Allen's first ever playoff game, a loss in overtime to Houston 22-19 after he completed 52.2% of his throws and didn't have any touchdowns.
25:36I've got Allen ranked QB 5 this week. I can never completely fade a guy who runs the way he does and
25:44could give you two rushing touchdowns in any game, even against what might be the toughest defense in the NFL.
25:51But man, it does kind of stink for the people who spent an early round draft pick on Josh Allen to get
25:59this matchup right out of the gate. It's one of those things where it's like, I can't in good conscience, as somebody
26:07who does this professionally tell somebody to not start the consensus QB 1.
26:11Yeah. And I also don't, like, I think typically fantasy managers overreact to tough matchups.
26:17This is, to me, as tough as a matchup can get.
26:21Because again, I do think this is, A, it's a defense that has already given him fits, and B, is going to be even better this season.
26:30I think this really will be like the 2000 Ravens, you know, O2 Bucks, 2013 Seattle.
26:36Like, I think this year's Texans team can be, if they stay healthy, in that category.
26:42Like, they are that good. But, like, if you drafted Josh Allen, who else did you draft that you're going to start instead, right?
26:50Like, that becomes really actionable. For the rest of the offense, D-Bro, like, even if we say, okay, even if we don't like it, we're starting Josh Allen.
27:00Are you fading DJ Moore? I mean, again, James Cook is another guy that you, like, pretty much have to be starting.
27:08Like, what are you doing with the rest of the guys in this offense?
27:13You're starting James Cook. You're not playing DJ Moore unless you have to, depending on your options.
27:19You're not playing, obviously, Khalil Shakir in deeper leagues.
27:23I do think that Dalton Kincaid, depending on your tight end options, because Houston, yes, they added Reed Blankenship in the offseason,
27:31but last year, weeks 12 through 18, this is mostly, I mean, pretty much the exact same freaking defense that are rolling back.
27:39Dalton Kincaid is the X factor in this game, because during those weeks, 12 through 18 last year, Houston gave up the
27:477th most receiving fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, 11th most fantasy points per opportunity.
27:53So, Kincaid is the only Bills option outside of Josh Allen and James Cook I'm probably willing to start in this game.
28:01Yeah, the Bills, or the Texans defense is kind of a tight end funnel, but, like, I don't know, I don't feel
28:09great about being funneled into Reed Blankenship and Jalen Petrie and those guys, like, really good personnel, man.
28:15If you guys had to pick, who do you think will be the better defense this year, Seattle or Houston?
28:22To me, those are, like, the two that are, even ahead of teams like Denver, who I think is really good, like,
28:30those two, I think, stand apart for me. Do you guys think, like, do you have a sense of which one you like better?
28:39That's really tough, but I think Houston is number one right now.
28:43We've never seen year three of them like McDonald defense, so I'm, like, really curious what that's going to look like in Seattle, but, man, Houston's good.
28:53I think if you look, and they're just, they're very different defenses based off of, like, because Seattle, you get all the
29:01coverage disguises, you get the safety rotations and stuff.
29:04Houston, they're just, like, straight up, like, they don't do a lot of the same kind of bells and whistles at McDonald.
29:12Like, D'Amico Ryan's is like, our dudes are better than your dudes.
29:16Yes. Try to beat us. Good luck. It's all I can tell you.
29:21Good luck for sure. Yeah. With Houston, it's got to feel like, you know, being chased by the zombies and 28 days
29:29later who are just, like, fast and unrelenting. Yes.
29:32I have seen that movie, by the way. I knew you were going to ask, D.B.
29:38All right. Let's go to a second question, actually, because I do think this is sort of the biggest game of the
29:45day, and I think it's worth looking at the other side of the ball in this matchup, too.
29:52If the Bills offense versus Texans defense is strength on strength, the other side of the ball is closer to weakness on weakness.
30:00You know, we'll see what, this Houston offense looks like, and we'll see what the Bills defense looks like under Jim Leonard,
30:08but it looks like more of the weakness on weakness here.
30:12So who wins the day between that new Buffalo defense under Jim Leonard versus C.J.
30:17Stroud in his first game since his disastrous postseason performance, Fitz?
30:21Well, being a fan of the University of Wisconsin football team where Jim Leonard used to be the defensive coordinator, I know a little bit about him.
30:31He's a sharp cat. I'll say the Bills hold the Texans under 20 points this week.
30:37Yep. Debra, you feel the same? Yeah, I don't look at the Bills defense as being weak.
30:43I do can definitely say that about the Houston offense.
30:46Like, I think it's going to be a lot of running the ball, a lot leaning on David Montgomery.
30:53I mean, Bills, because even like we could talk about like if they weren't like a top tier defense, they were really
31:01freaking good down the stretch last year. Like weeks 12 through 18 give the fewest yards per attempt, six lowest pass rating.
31:09They're good against defending against the deep ball. Christian Benford might shadow Nico Collins.
31:14He did that a few times last year. So if they take him away, what is Houston going to do?
31:21I, I think this is going to be a rock fight type of game.
31:26I don't really want to invest again, like going back to this, like I'm worried about Nico Collins in this matchup.
31:34CJ Stroud, no thank you. Dalton Schultz versus a defense that's been elite versus tight ends over the last few years.
31:41Yeah, the only guy like I really want to start from the Houston offense is probably David Montgomery and that's about it, man.
31:49Benford's good, but you think he's taking Nico away?
31:53Like under 50 yards? Benford is, is that dude.
31:56He's really freaking good, man. Fitz, do you like the under in this one, 44 and a half?
32:02I do. Yeah, I do too. All right, next game, Ravens at Colts.
32:07Let's look at the stars in this one with two guys ranked inside the top five at their respective positions who will
32:15have a higher positional finish in week one. Lamar Jackson in his first game with a new play caller or Jonathan Taylor
32:23against a defensive play caller who has historically been weaker against the run.
32:28Fitz, I'll start with you here. Well, I guess it's Lamar since I've ever ranked QB1 this week and it's not necessarily an easy matchup for him.
32:37The Colts have an excellent cornerback duo in Sauce Gardner and Charverius Ward.
32:42Ward isn't always healthy, but he's healthy right now.
32:45But the Colts might not have much of a pass rush, which could be a problem.
32:51I know the Baltimore run defense was shockingly soft last season, Worm, as you remember, but things should be better with Nnamdi Madabuike back from his neck injury.
33:01Although it's not totally clear whether he's going to play this week.
33:05He's been getting limited in practice. I think they're more circling week two, but week one is still not ruled out is sort of my interpretation.
33:14All right. Plus, the Colts running game fell off last season after Daniel Jones got hurt.
33:20Jones is back, but I don't know if the Colts running game immediately goes back to what it was before the injury
33:28when Jonathan Taylor was scoring touchdowns like Lydani and Tomlinson.
33:32I just, I don't know about that. I think Lamar's a slightly better bet to finish at the top of his position this week.
33:40For what it's worth, Jonathan Taylor in a matchup against Jesse Minter's Chargers defense a year ago, 16 carries, 94 yards, and three touchdowns.
33:49The Chargers scored 38 points in that game against him.
33:53It is definitely different, but I just want to throw it out because he has faced a Jesse Minter defense relatively recently.
34:00Debra, where are you at on this one? Do you like Lamar better amongst QBs or Jonathan Taylor better amongst running backs?
34:08Lamar better, and it's not close to me. I think you're not giving your Ravens run defense enough credit, Worm, to be honest, man.
34:17Like, if Matabuque plays, then they get a bump there, but your Ravens were really freaking good against the run down the stretch last year.
34:26Like, again, weeks 12 through 18, fourth lowest explosive run rate, ninth lowest rushing success rate, fourth highest stuff rate.
34:33I don't think you're giving Ravens enough credit here, Worm.
34:37I'm actually kind of worried about Taylor in this game.
34:40Interesting. Well, do you guys have any concerns about Lamar?
34:44I know he's been really good in, like, first games with new play callers in the past, but this is, like, a
34:52brand new play caller who's never done it before, who's very young.
34:56Like, to me, I'm not even saying that, like, I'm nervous about losing the game.
35:01I mean, of course it could happen. The Colts aren't terrible, but, like, it's more just like, I wonder how Lamar will actually look.
35:10And the offense in general will actually look in game one with a very detail-oriented Declan Doyle offense who, like, maybe it takes some time.
35:19You know, Lamar's a lot more established than Caleb Williams, but it did take a little bit last year for this offense
35:27to start clicking, like, under Ben Johnson and Declan Doyle.
35:30Now it's just Declan Doyle. It doesn't have Ben Johnson there to help.
35:35And, you know, again, Lamar is more of a veteran there, but, you know, the offensive line isn't perfect, right?
35:42Big question marks at center. Pass catching group isn't perfect.
35:46There's question marks beyond Zay Flowers. Like, I wonder if this end up, will end up, A, being an under game again,
35:54which we're picking a lot of, and B, if Lamar maybe.
35:58The problem here, as I see it, D-Bro, is like, there's not really an obvious QB1 on the week with Josh Allen facing Houston.
36:06If you are nervous about Lamar in his first game with the new play caller, it's like, Joe Burrow usually starts off slow.
36:15Jalen Hurts has a new play caller as well, right?
36:18Like, there's not like, you know, Justin Herbert, we're all excited, but again, a new play caller.
36:24So there's not like an obvious QB1 to slot in there as far as I can tell, but yeah, that's just some of my nervousness, D-Bro.
36:34Yeah, I mean, I think you could poke holes in all the top quarterbacks this week.
36:39I mean, I think like, we could see like Dak Prescott be QB1 or Jared Goff be QB1 this week.
36:46I mean, again, like you go down the laundry list of guys, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, new play callers or they typically start slow.
36:56Justin Herbert has a smash matchup and then Amari and Hampton is going to go for like three touchdowns.
37:03Herbert tosses none and then we're all like, oh, Justin Herbert had a really efficient game.
37:08Didn't lead to any fantasy points, but getting back to Lamar Jackson.
37:13Yeah, I've got some concerns, man, like a new, a brand new offense that's going to ask new things out of Lamar
37:21Jackson to play on, play on time, play in structure and things like that.
37:26but the reason why I do have, I'm with it's like or you got him at QB1, I do him at QB2 is just the rushing.
37:35So, I think this will be an under game, but I think that the Colts are kind of bringing the total down.
37:43I think that this total is only so high because of last year's Colts with Daniel Jones and a lot of that carrying this total.
37:52Like, I think this total should be more of like the 45 and a half type of variety than 48.
37:59I know that that obviously is very different than the betting markets, but I like the under in this game.
38:06I think Lamar can still get it done with his legs.
38:10I love Mark Andrews matchup. We've talked about that on previous shows.
38:14I think Zay Flowers can get it done versus Osgarter.
38:18We'll see if Traverius Ward plays in this game, but I'm worried about Lamar, but I think the rushing will definitely can,
38:26you know, raise the ceiling and floor like it always does for Lamar.
38:30I, uh, I think this is sneaky one of the most fascinating games in the entire slate.
38:37Just like, what does Lamar look like with Declan Doyle?
38:40What is the Jesse Minter defense look like with him now?
38:44It's just his first game as head coach. What does Daniel Jones look like coming off of the injury?
38:51I mean, some of the soccer camps are pretty positive.
38:55Louie Anarumo has been like pretty good against Lamar in the past when he was a Cincy, like as a defensive play car.
39:03Like this is just a really fascinating chess match to me.
39:07Um, so I, I'm even aside from being a Ravens fan, what does Alec Pierce look like in his first game?
39:14What's his route share? Question marks in this one.
39:17So I'm really, really intrigued by that game. Uh, next one here, a little less intrigued by this one.
39:24Browns at Jaguars. Uh, I don't really want to spend too much time on this one.
39:30So I'll just keep this very simple. Parker Washington was every fantasy analyst favorite draft darling this season.
39:36Predict his week one stat line D bro. I will give you seven catches for 80 and a touchdown.
39:43Um, and it could be more than that. I think that, uh, James Gladstone is trying to get this Parker Washington contract
39:51done before week one for very good reason, because I think Parker Washington could eat in week one.
39:58So I'm going more of a median and not like the true high end, high end projection for Parker Washington.
40:05Miles Harden, the slot corner for Cleveland was God awful last year, gave up a 71.9% catch rate, 119 pass rating in
40:13his coverage amongst 34 qualifying slot, uh, corners last year.
40:16That was the fifth highest pass rating and coverage ninth most fantasy points for target and the ninth highest rate of step or separation last year.
40:26And I think if you look at just, you zoom out and you look at just the sample of when Denzel Ward
40:33and Tyson Campbell were healthy last year, this Browns defense was an elite unit versus perimeter wide receivers.
40:40They gave up in those eight games, the third lowest marks and fantasy points per target in yards per target to perimeter wide receivers.
40:49I think you look at this matchup, it funnels targets to Parker Washington.
40:53I think Brenton Strange can have low key, a really good game, quieter games for Brian Thomas Jr.
41:00and Jacoby Myers on the outside, but Parker Washington, I think he's going to justify the big contract that I think is coming for him.
41:09Fitz, give me Parker Washington stat line. Nine targets, six catches, 81 yards.
41:13Just want to give you something commensurate with my wide receiver 26 rating.
41:18Nice. I got him top 24 and already bet the over four and a half receptions right now.
41:24You can get it plus money out there in the market.
41:28Enjoy people. Wow. But by the way, Fitz is very quickly because Debra and I got this question a billion times in the stream.
41:37I already referenced it earlier. I want to see what Fitz says.
41:41Who do you like between Christian Watson and Parker Washington this week?
41:46We got this question. I'm not kidding. Probably three dozen times on the stream yesterday.
41:51Oh, over 20, over 20 times. I've got what, uh, Watson ranked a little higher.
41:56I just think he's a little more, uh, integral to his team's, uh, offense than Washington is to his.
42:03But I mean, I really like both guys. That's a, that's a tough one for me.
42:09Debro's answer was consistently start them both. If you can start, I was like, it's start both start both.
42:16Yeah. But I've got Watson at wide receiver 18.
42:19I've got Parker Washington at wide receiver 21. Okay.
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43:32All right, guys. Falcons at Seelers. I originally asked this question when I made the sheet about Tua Tungavailoa.
43:39It pretty much still applies if that ends up being Cooper Rush or Jack Strand or whoever.
43:45How far down the ranks are you dropping Falcons skill players with insert whoever the quarterback is here playing at quarterback, especially
43:53against the defense with such a strong front 70, bro.
43:56I'm not dropping Bajon Robinson. I think regardless, he's going to get checkdowns.
44:01He's going to get rushing volume. Not worried about him at all, but Drake London, I've adjusted down to wide receiver 12 and I could go.
44:10I mean, I'm probably going to nudge him a little bit lower depending on who's going to be under center and we
44:18already kind of covered Kyle Pitts like I've bumped him down to tight in eight.
44:24I'm going to update both those guys in the primer by Friday night and stuff and regardless whoever the quarterback is like I'm worried about them.
44:33Like, so, yeah. I mean, we're, we're bumping down Kyle Pitts a lot.
44:38It's already sounded like compared to consensus from when we talked about him earlier.
44:43I think Fitz Drake London should definitely get bumped down like a pretty significantly to me.
44:48Yeah, right now I've got him at wide receiver 11 and that is with the I'm, I've still got the, the two
44:56are ranks and this is a guy who if it were Michael Penix Jr.
45:01Even against the Steelers, I would have London inside the top 10, but yes, if it's going to be Cooper Rush and
45:09maybe even if it's going to be a compromise to, I do have to look at moving London down a little bit.
45:17I've got Bijan running back three. I had him behind McCaffrey this week and I've got Pitts as we talked about at tight end eight.
45:26I mean, it's, it's sad to say, I'm not trying to be snarky here genuinely.
45:32Like there's no such thing as an uncompromised to a anymore.
45:35Like every game he plays, you're watching him. It's, he's not the quarterback he was coming out of college and when he's at Alabama.
45:44And it's like, like, even if it was to a, and this like latest tweak to his oblique didn't happen this week,
45:52I would still be terrified of starting London in this matchup at, you know, at Pittsburgh.
45:58I, I, I, we've been talking about this a lot.
46:01I really think the Steelers are just going to put the clamps on this offense.
46:07Like regardless of the court, Penix is the only quarterback that I would be, you know, more excited about for Atlanta.
46:14Um, the, any other option, I really think it's going to get really ugly.
46:19I was just going to forward. Go ahead. I was just going to point out the spreads only what?
46:26Three and a half, which right now is kind of wild.
46:30Yeah. Every, but every time you think the Steelers are going to smash someone, they lay an egg.
46:36And every time you think the Steelers are overmatched, they somehow win the game.
46:41But we talked about this, but is that form of Mike Tomlin magic?
46:46Yes. I was going to be John like, right.
46:49You can't drop him because he's, he's B. John Robinson, but like everybody else, even though I think they're really good players,
46:57like Jake London particularly, I just, I can't see bro.
47:01Before we move on quick PSA, I've said it before and I'll say it again.
47:06This team should be starting Jack strand. I don't care about Penix.
47:11I don't care about Tua. I don't come on dude.
47:14Penix is not good. 2026 Max Brosmer. Oh dude, they're so different.
47:18They're, they're not even comparable. Michael Penix, he runs, too many games to get through to have a Brosmer versus strand debate.
47:26So we'll move on to the next. That's fair.
47:30That's fair. Let's go to the, to the matchup.
47:33That is the Brosmer versus strand of matchups this week.
47:36Jeff at Titans, the total on this game consensus of betting pros 39 and a half, the lowest of the week by a wide margin.
47:45If I force you to pick one player in this matchup to be significantly above consensus on sort of the opposite of
47:53those high totals of questions we were asking, who would it be?
47:58Fitz, is there anybody that you are above consensus on in this poor matchup?
48:03Yeah. Both the backup running backs and especially TyJ Spears.
48:06I have Spears at running back 39 and I think even that might be too low.
48:12I just think the Titans backfield is going to be more of a timeshare than most people realize.
48:18And in the preseason when Cam Ward was on the field, Spears and Tony Pollard's split snaps pretty evenly.
48:25I think Spears might have even had like one or two more snaps on Cam Ward's snaps in the preseason than Pollard did.
48:33So I think that's going to be a tighter division of labor than people realize.
48:39Also, Braylon Allen. I just... Brees Hall coming off this groin injury, I don't think the Jets want to beat him into the ground.
48:47They've talked pretty openly about wanting to use a multi-pronged backfield.
48:51So I think Braylon Allen's going to get a little more work than maybe people realize.
48:57So both running backs here for Fitz's call. Zebro, who are you above consensus on?
49:02I'd make the case for Carnell Tate and I know how bad Cam Ward looked in the preseason.
49:09I'm very worried about Cam Ward. But playing the other side of the coin here, the Jets secondary is not good, man.
49:17Like Brandon Stevens is not good. Last year gave up a 126.4 pass rating.
49:22Nashawn Wright is not anybody that I'm worried about in coverage.
49:26If Cam Ward can just run the Daniel Jones version of this freaking offense from Brian Day Ball, I mean, Carnell Tate
49:34can have a really good game here. So, you know, bucking all the preseason worries and not coming out with a catch
49:42and stuff, which really wasn't a Carnell Tate thing, that was a Cam Ward problem.
49:47If Cam Ward can put it together in this game, Carnell Tate can have a really good one.
49:53Neither of you guys picked the player that I was sort of circling in my head, which is Wandale Robinson.
50:01Just, you know, familiarity with Brian Dayball, of course, obviously they paid him to bring him in this offseason, and he's down at wide receiver 42.
50:10I think in any league where you're getting points, even a half point PPR, but any league where you're getting anything for
50:18catching passes, I think he might catch a lot of passes in this game, and it won't be like a superstar performance,
50:26but it'll be like you look up and in PPR, oh, he had like 14 points of PPR because he caught so many balls.
50:34I think that's on the table for Wandale, so I like him above consensus too.
50:40I'm starting him in a league this week. I'm above consensus on him, so I'm with you, man.
50:46A lot of names to be above consensus on apparently in this one, so I don't feel great about that, but if
50:54you're not sure who to start, get fast, free starter sit advice with the Fantasy Pros Who Should I Start tool.
51:02Compare your players and get instant recommendations powered by more than 150 fantasy experts.
51:07Set your best lineup today at fantasypros.com slash start.
51:10We're through the early slate, guys. Let's go to the late afternoon slate.
51:14Cardinals at Chargers. Marvin Harrison Jr. and Quentin Johnston are just two spots apart in week one ECR at the wide receiver position.
51:23Who do you guys like to have a better stat line in this game between the two Debra?
51:29I'll start with you. Quentin Johnston. I think that he was the wide receiver one for the Chargers when he was healthy last year.
51:38I think he's going to have a big game in this one.
51:42I mean, again, going to a secondary that I am not worried about at all.
51:47Cardinals secondary give the ninth most yards per target to perimeter wide receivers last year.
51:53So I think QJ can have a big game.
51:56Whereas I mean, the Chargers secondary is still kind fits.
52:00Who do you like better? I've got Harrison wide receiver 30.
52:04So I guess I'm a little ahead of consensus on him.
52:07And I've got QJ wide receiver 36. So just behind consensus.
52:11I think it's more about game flow for me.
52:15And I don't like to make sweeping assumptions about game scripts and how things are going to go.
52:21But look, the Chargers are favored by 10 points.
52:24They're the biggest favorites on the slate. I don't expect them to skew somewhat pass heavy in week one as big underdogs
52:32with Jeremiah Love probably not ready to handle 20 carries coming off the high ankle sprains.
52:38I think they're going to be pass heavy in I don't know.
52:42A lot of top 30. I kind of agree with you fits just in the sense of the game script.
52:49This is the consensus on bettingpros.com and I know that we spent all off season saying they're not going to pass as much as they did last year.
53:00in this one I think they might have to try to keep up.
53:04this might be one where even if it's garbage time I do think he will get some catches.
53:11I need another year before I'm willing to put the nail in the coffin on Marvin Harrison Jr.'s career.
53:17I'm not saying he's going to be the superstar that we thought was promised when he came in but I'm not ready
53:25to rule out a legitimate step forward this year if Mike LaFour can do something more with this offense even with the
53:33quarterback question mark you hit it on the head the new play caller and I just think we have to lower expectations
53:41that he's probably not going to achieve the superstar level we thought he was capable of coming into the league but I
53:49think he could still want to lose you that's all that is for the record I probably have both these guys ahead
53:57of consensus not just Marvin Harrison Jr. I like is expected to miss one to two games or more I don't know
54:05if there's been an update on the timetable there where are you guys ranking Michael Mayer against the Dolphins in Bowers is
54:13absent Steve bro I've got Mayer a tight in 13 I think high end tight in two is kind of the range
54:21now you know we could quibble on like tight in 13 versus tight Dulcich all these different guys that were you know
54:28whoever scores a freaking touchdown this week like we can quibble upon like where we got Bowers and now you're like okay
54:36who the heck do I play you should have picked up Michael Mayer and you're probably starting him so just looking at
54:44this matchup I think it's pretty good but the other thing I'll add here I think the Raiders are being extremely positive
54:52about the time possible miss for Brock Bowers I in the last couple of days the three names ahead of him Jake
55:00Ferguson Dalton Kincaid Mark Andrews like I know we like the matchup for Andrews Kincaid we talked about a little during that
55:08Buffalo Houston preview we haven't gotten to Dallas yet but some interesting like like I almost think about if you are going
55:16to start Mayer or not where is ranked for you tight end 11 so last year when the Raiders shut for 10
55:24yards but that was a game where the Raiders got demolished by the Chiefs 31 and nothing and ran fewer than 40
55:32offensive plays that was just a complete washout offensively for them the Raiders have a real coaching staff this year they've improved
55:39their offensive line Kirk Cousins historically has been a very tight end friendly quarterback and perhaps most important of all if you're
55:47looking for reasons to play Michael Mayer this week the Miami defensive backfield could be the worst in the league like really
55:55young and inexperienced Chris Johnson their late first round rookie probably the best guy in their defensive backfield hasn't played an NFL
56:03snap yet and at safety again safety is very responsible for tight end coverage they've got two fifth round draft picks one
56:11a rookie one a second year guy next game who by the way I don't know if he wears Michael Mayer jerseys
56:1924 7 I think he does love Michael Mayer in every league for the reason of his last name which I respect
56:27he definitely embraces the bit Packers at Vikings I could have gone with more of a narrative question here like Kyler Murray's
56:35first game I feel like we talked about that a lot all summer long like what this offense is going to look
56:43like under Kyler I want to see it rather than try to guess what exactly it will look like there are two
56:50running backs in this game who are very Jordan Mason is RB 32 Fitz who do you prefer for week one so
56:58I also have Barshan Lloyd RB 28 but I've got Jordan Mason RB 26 and I think people are maybe sleeping on
57:06the likelihood that Mason is the lead back for the Vikings and they have a redesigned run scheme that apparently is a
57:14great fit for him I don't know just like I've heard beat writers smart people observing the Vikings in training camp say
57:22they think Mason is the guy this year and Aaron Jones is going to be more of a change of pace guy
57:30so Packers did have a lot of trouble defending the run late last year although they had some injuries Micah Parsons Devontae
57:38Wyatt still I think a pretty favorable matchup for Mason and with Lloyd I just I don't think they're giving him that
57:46many carries this week like they're not giving him 20 carries with his injury history I think Chris Brooks is going to
57:54get of consensus on Jordan Mason where are you at on these two guys I have got Jordan Mason at RB 30
58:01and I've got Lloyd right outside the top 24 I think Lloyd is going to get more of the backfield than Chris
58:09Brooks because of the past game utility I'm not saying he's to get 20 carries but I think 15 to 17 opportunities
58:17with also 3 or 4 catches in this game I think it can definitely be had and I got more respect on
58:25the Packers run defense man I know they struggled a little bit down in but I'm excited to see what Lloyd can
58:33do against this Minnesota run defense they've got new parts and pieces Caleb Banks is brand new big citrus is brand new
58:41does this Vikings run defense look much improved from last year because they were a middle of the road unit last year
58:49they were 16th in explosive run rate 15th in yards up to contact per attempt they give the 6th highest rushing success
58:57rate so I'm pro Lloyd in this one by the way very quickly don't even give me an explanation just give me
59:05a name who is ranked higher of the two quarterbacks for you guys in this game Kyler or Jordan love this week
59:13fits yeah debatable whether it's a good like I think their best cornerback is their second round rookie Brandon Cisse it's good
59:20analysis but it makes me laugh that I was like just give me a name no deep dive sorry no it's okay
59:28Debra who's ranked higher for you of those two Jordan love easy Jordan love he's been awesome versus the blitz and we
59:36know Brian Flores is going to blitz him how many touchdown passes Flores Vikings defenses before but his last two have not
59:44been good at all so it's like he has it on his resume but not recently so I'm curious I know we're
59:52supposed to go short with this but the flip side of the Kyler coin if there is any coach in the entire
60:00freaking NFL that knows both Kyler strengths and his obvious weaknesses you have but here's the other side of that coin I
60:08don't really care about the pass rush if you're forcing Kyler to play from the pocket he can't see over the offensive
60:16line he doesn't throw to tour that I meant us to take apologies there no apologies I will not apologize for let's
60:24go to commanders at Eagles another game where I'm really surprised by the spread here we'll get to that in a second
60:31two new young offensive coordinators in this one David Blau and Sean Mannion we talked about this actually in our season preview
60:39key questions episode which offense is going to do that do what I got to see in this game is the commanders
60:47offensive line functional enough to allow the commanders and David Blau to do the things he wants to do because I am
60:55really worried about this offensive line especially attacking the Eagles in week one given how that tweet went around you might ask
61:03if it's going to the tier two defenses I'm looking at that are still really good I have a second question on
61:11this game which is along those lines every Eagle is ranked higher in their week one ECR than the area they were
61:19drafted this summer and every commander is ranked lower in week one ECR than fits or do you think this we talked
61:27about with Falcon Steelers is this another example of like this line might be smaller than you would expect for a reason
61:35well I bet the Eagles I tend to think not and that the line is too tight I number of targets I'm
61:42curious what you guys think the target share is going to look like Fitz I'll start with you I'm going to make
61:50it a very close split of the workload I'm going to say 11 targets for CD Lamb 7 catches for 93 yards
61:58and a touchdown 10 targets for George Pickens 6 catches 90 yards and a touchdown Do you think most games this season
62:06fits you're expecting these year 9th highest and too high rate when CD and route run against too high I can give
62:14you but for time I was not going to but I can no no you're good I just quickly on this receiving
62:22room does any part of you think that CD might is talking about now the Pickens previous years had massive DK Metcalf
62:30level splits versus single high and too high those splits closed the gap massively last year with the way Dallas used him
62:38and again back to the two high coverage to this point CD lamb 2.2 yards per route run in those 12 games
62:462 high George Pickens 1.9 I think that they are going to be back and forth depending on the week every Sunday
62:53night football matchup we're going to talk about our favorite bets from the prop bet cheat sheet on betting pros dot com
63:01fits what's your favorite three or four star bet from the cheat sheet it's a four star bet it's David Montgomery over
63:0954 and a half rushing yards I Texans have upgraded their offensive line I think Monty clears this bar Debra what's your
63:17favorite prop bet this week I'm going to go with Isaiah likely I'm going to stay in the Sunday night game on
63:25the prop bet cheat sheet we're projecting the over for Isaiah likely is receiving yards the Isaiah likely could be the clear
63:33number two in this passing attack and just if any of this crosses over this year the Dallas Cowboys in weeks 12
63:41through 18 last year give it the fourth most yards per target to opposing tight ends those were our top prop bets
63:49for Sunday night football and for pros dot com slash props one last game here guys Broncos at Chiefs Monday night football
63:57this is an obvious question to ask D bro how is Patrick Mahomes going to look in his first game back from
64:04injury up against a Walker really the impetus is going to be get the ball out of his hands and I don't
64:12think we're going to see a ton of rushing from Mahomes in this game where's Mahomes ranked for you D bro he's
64:20QB 20 in consensus QB 20 yeah I got him as QB 2 yep okay Fitz what do you think we're going
64:28to see out of Mahomes here in week one I'm not wildly optimistic I think he threw for what like 245 yards
64:36in his one game against Denver last week but needed like 45 pass attempts to do it one touchdown yeah average like
64:446.1 yards per attempt I just think it's kind of more of the same with fewer passing attempts they're not going to
64:52let him drop back 45 times coming off that injury so I've got him ranked QB 22 Fitz are you down on
65:00like all the chiefs players Walker is you know I think RB 12 I want to say you know Rasheed Rice is
65:08wide receiver 18 I'm a little below I think I'm pretty consistently below consensus on not way below consensus but like basically
65:15one or two on just about every guy I got Rasheed Rice at wide receiver 22 I've got Walker at RB 12
65:23where's Kelsey at tight end 11 so yeah chiefs are favored by two and a half in this one it is it
65:31at arrowhead I kind or do you guys prefer the over I like the under I mean I just I'm gonna go
65:39you know Anderson with a lot of this I'm channeling my best Andrew it's week one it's a good defense is my
65:47home's back from injury like yeah I mean both lines not a different type of injury right so yeah I like the
65:55under here fits also under I mean you can most seasons if you just bet 16 unders in week one you're Erickson
66:03I talked a lot about they don't call it the land down over they call it the land down under so we're
66:11off to a hot start there we'll go ahead and wrap things up there I know we kind of sprinted through the
66:19end there we had a hard out today normally we'll give a little more time to breathe in those later games so
66:26hopefully everybody enjoys the show and has a good week one best of luck in all your leagues here and we are
66:34finally just a couple of days away from a full NFL Sunday I absolutely can't wait for Fitz and Debro I'm Ryan
66:42warmly thanks for tuning in we'll see again next time it's on on on plus nicotine pouches with Niko silk mesh no
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