NFL Week 3 Player Props: 10 Best Bets + Anytime & First TD Picks (Ep. 2222)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
45 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 26, 2026
Published
Sat, September 26, 2026
20
Player insights
18
Players mentioned
Topics
Kenyon SadiqQuinshon JudkinsAdonai MitchellBucky IrvingChase BrownChris RodriguezChristian McCaffreyChristian WatsonDe'Von AchaneDK MetcalfJahmyr GibbsJameis WinstonKyle JuszczykMatthew Stafford
Player analysis
Player insights
Adonai Mitchell
NegativeInjury30:25
Andrew Erickson pivoted away from betting on Adonai Mitchell due to a finger injury reported this week, noting that Mitchell already struggles with 'stone hands'.
Insight pageBucky Irving
PositiveUsage23:50
Chris Welsh is betting Bucky Irving over 2.5 receptions against the Vikings. Irving has seen 71% of snaps and an 18% target share. The Vikings' aggressive blitzing scheme is expected to force Baker Mayfield into dump-off passes to running backs.
Insight pageChase Brown
PositiveProjection28:25
Chase Brown is a target for over 63.5 rushing yards. He has cleared this mark in seven of his last 10 games and averaged over 100 rushing yards per game against the Steelers in 2025. The game script favors a ball-control approach for the Bengals against a Steelers team that struggles to sustain drives.
Insight pageChris Rodriguez
PositiveUsage23:35
Chris Rodriguez is a strong under candidate for receptions (0.5). He has zero catches this season, has played only four routes in a game where LeQuint Allen was active, and averages just 0.16 catches per game over his 37-game career. The Jaguars also feature the fourth-lowest running back target rate in the NFL.
Insight pageChristian McCaffrey
NegativeUsage51:22
Christian McCaffrey is expected to be the focal point of a red-zone play-action sequence that sets up a potential touchdown pass to Kyle Juszczyk.
Insight pageChristian Watson
PositiveUsage37:10
Christian Watson has been a dominant force for the Packers in scoring the first touchdown of the game, having achieved this in at least two of the first three games of the season.
Insight pageDe'Von Achane
PositiveUsage26:01
Devon Achan is a high-confidence over play for receptions (3.5). He leads all NFL running backs in routes run (74% rate) and maintains a 20% target share. With the Dolphins likely playing from behind against the Chiefs, Achan is expected to be heavily involved in the passing game.
Insight pageDK Metcalf
NegativeProjection20:42
DK Metcalf is a fade for receiving yards (under 51.5) against the Bengals. He has failed to hit this marker in his career as a Steeler against Cincinnati. Despite a 45% air yard share, the Steelers' passing game looks lost, and Metcalf struggles with separation; betting pros projections are under 50 yards with positive ROI.
Insight pageJahmyr Gibbs
PositiveUsage3:26
The source is maintaining a 'two touchdown rollover' betting strategy on Jahmyr Gibbs, noting that the bet has been successful for two consecutive weeks despite heavy juice, and they are rolling over the winnings for a third week.
Insight pageJameis Winston
PositiveProjection49:15
Jameis Winston is described as a high-variance quarterback with a wide range of outcomes, but he is capable of winning games, which supports the Titans' potential to win outright against the Giants.
Insight pageKenyon Sadiq
PositiveUsage19:11
Kenyan Sadiq is a prime target for an anytime touchdown bet against the Lions, who are dead last in yards (93.5) and targets (12.5) allowed to tight ends per game. Sadiq is expected to run more routes in an uptempo game pace, and his explosive speed (hitting 20+ mph on a red zone run) makes him a high-upside play in this matchup.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout30:46
Andrew Erickson is betting Kenyon Sadiq over 26.5 receiving yards against the Lions. Sadiq may see increased opportunity with Mason Taylor potentially out due to a thumb injury. The Lions' defense is ranked dead last against tight ends, allowing 93.5 yards per game.
Insight pageKyle Juszczyk
PositiveValue50:40
Kyle Juszczyk is a narrative-based first touchdown bet at 40-to-1 odds, with the team rallying around him following his recent fine for a celebration; the expectation is for a red-zone play-action pass to him.
Insight pageMatthew Stafford
NegativeProjection30:11
Matthew Stafford is a fade for passing yards (under 243.5). The Rams may prioritize the run game to keep the clock moving and avoid the Broncos' top-10 pass rush and top-5 wide receiver coverage, especially with Puka Nacua potentially sidelined.
Insight pagePat Freiermuth
PositiveBreakout22:07
Pat Friermuth is considered a 'smash' play this week due to the Bengals' defensive struggles against tight ends, ranking dead last in both linebacker and safety coverage. He is a high-value anytime touchdown target at nearly 4-to-1 odds.
Insight pageQuinshon Judkins
PositiveProjection6:58
Both analysts are backing Quinshon Judkins to go over 59.5 rushing yards against the Carolina Panthers. The reasoning is that Carolina allows 173 rushing yards per game to running backs (6.5 yards per carry), and Judkins' rush attempts are trending upward into the 16-17 range.
Insight pagePositiveProjection34:03
QuinShon Judkins is a recommended anytime touchdown bet at even money (+105). He is expected to have a monster game for the Cleveland Browns.
Insight pageTerry McLaurin
NegativeUsage1:48
Despite having multiple opportunities, including a reversed touchdown and being missed by a teammate while wide open, Terry McLaurin failed to record a touchdown in Week 2, causing frustration for the analysts.
Insight pageTony Pollard
PositiveValue47:28
Tony Pollard is a strong first touchdown bet at 7-to-1 odds; he saw four goal-line carries last week and faces a Giants defense that allows the most rushing yards over expectation per carry and the highest rate of rushes over expected to running backs in the league.
Insight pageTravis Kelce
PositiveProjection35:18
Travis Kelce is a recommended anytime touchdown bet at +130 odds. He is facing a weak Dolphins secondary and is expected to be a primary target for Mahomes in a vintage Chiefs performance.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. The same team.
0:03And it's been amazing to feel the love and support.
0:06So keep showing up for our girl, show up for each other.
0:09Thanks to Geico and our listeners. What's up friends and welcome to Betting Pros.
0:13This is the Week 3 Prop Show. We've got 10 props for you that Andrew Erickson and myself, Chris Welsh, are locked into for the week.
0:20We're going to tell you how we did last week.
0:23We've got the Jameer Gibbs rollover touchdown game. We're going to even get some touchdown scores and a little bit of first touchdown action.
0:30That's what's on docket for all of Week 3 for us.
0:33But as we have to do, Mr. Andrew Erickson, we've got to review how we did last week.
0:38And you know what? I'll take it. You sacrificed one of your great wins.
0:42Week 1, you were 4-1. You gave it to me.
0:45And we both came out 500. We were both 3-2 last week as we take a look at the big board here on the BP side.
0:52On the year, you are now 7-3. I'm an even 5-5.
0:55You have one touchdown call. I have none still.
0:57We're also placing out the ROI, which once we start hitting them, it'll be good.
1:02But 3-2 last week, no touchdown calls. We'll take it.
1:04You know, we want to be better. We had some close ones.
1:08I mean, you should deserve the touchdown call for Terry McLaurin.
1:11You had like three opportunities. He had so many opportunities.
1:14I was tilting my face off being like, why is this guy not catching touchdowns?
1:18He had a touchdown on the field. It's called touchdown, reversed, not to be touched down.
1:22And then he's wide open on the wide receiver reverse play from Antonio Williams.
1:26And of course, the rookie wide receiver misses Terry McLaurin when he's wide open in the end zone.
1:31So and of course, the Von Diggs scores touchdown.
1:34Like, you know, he's going to score a touchdown every single week.
1:37But nope, none for Terry McLaurin. Yeah, nope. Well, I mean, you know, good logic.
1:41We were in there. We definitely got to prove on the touchdowns.
1:45Glad to both of us check in to like plus 500 weeks.
1:48I'm at 500. You're over it. You're still crushing it for the year.
1:52You haven't had a bad week, you know, so knock on wood.
1:55That's the big plus. And then so those are the stats you guys want to keep track.
2:00I know you got to be our accountability buddies.
2:02You're going to let us know some other fun stats for the BP show.
2:06If we look at the Jameer Gibbs, the Jameer Gibbs rolling touchdowns.
2:10Yes, we have a Jameer Gibbs two touchdown rollover this week.
2:13So would you like to give us a little update?
2:16What does that look like? Because I don't remember what is like the return.
2:19Are we like 1.8? Are we just under two total units after two weeks of betting it?
2:24Because I know the first week was OK. The second week was like big, heavy juice.
2:29You've won both. But what are we going into week three with?
2:32I think it's like minus 220 for an anytime touchdown.
2:35And this is looking like around two ish units.
2:37Do I have that right? Yeah. OK, because it's basically doubled after the winning back to back weeks at heavy juice.
2:43But you take all the winnings. You bet on it again.
2:46And so far, yeah, we're up two units. So the play.
2:49So you'll you'll bet the two units on this one and then the return will be about a unit.
2:55You know, so we're playing the game like we're getting up there.
2:58Once you get into the higher weeks, if you guys are playing along on the Jameer Gibbs run.
3:03And I do have a little tracker is probably it's way too preemptive.
3:07And frankly, I'm setting myself up here. But the is it the under tracker, which we don't have to have official graphic for.
3:13It is 2 and 0. We are 2 and 0 on the official.
3:17Is it the unders for me? And unders are going to come into play here.
3:21So that's all of our accountability. If you will, Erickson, let's jump into the props.
3:25If you're ready to do it, you guys can do that as well.
3:29Download. Make sure you have the betting pros app downloaded.
3:32You guys can go check out all the great data.
3:34You can track your bets. You can follow along.
3:37And as long as you got a premium side of it, you can do all your data research as well.
3:43So make sure betting pros has got you set.
3:45And all you got to do is download the app and get set.
3:49And we are going to jump into prop one for the week.
3:5210 total. This is our top dog here. We're both going to play a couple running backs.
3:57Mine actually has a trend for both of us.
3:59And I'm a little bit of a thief. And you know what?
4:03Maybe I should just get mine out of the way, Erickson, because we have to acknowledge.
4:07I stole this a little bit from you and I did not realize it.
4:11So as many know, we have a gajillion shows together.
4:14We talk about a lot of stuff. And we are both very pro-Quin Sean Jutkins this week.
4:19And what ended up happening is we talked about this.
4:22We both were like, I think you had immediately said, you're like, I love rushing yards.
4:26I'm like, I love rushing yards too. And I said, oh my God, look at this.
4:31I'm like, I'm going to go in that range.
4:33So I am a thief of props. But I know you're going to back this one with me.
4:38QuinShon Judkins. I'm going to go back. It is not lived up to the expectation, but the expectation opens himself up this
4:44week going against the Carolina Panthers who have on average given up 173 yards on the ground to running backs, which is the big play here.
4:52The Cleveland Browns were also able to establish a pass game, which is, I think, the most important part of this because now they're opening up the field.
4:59And Quinch on Jutkins, you also see the rush attempts moving up for we're now pushing into the 1617 range.
5:05And if you look at what they were doing, six, almost six and a half yards per carry Carolina is giving up.
5:11We've seen Quinch on Jutkins have big attempt games.
5:14We've definitely seen him have some of that juice before, but it hasn't been able to get going.
5:19This is the week we're pro Quinch on Jutkins.
5:21I originally had the number at 55. It's moved to 59.5.
5:24So that's the number. So I'm pushing it over 60.
5:27So that's some of my analysis in my prop.
5:30But I do have to publicly apologize because I stole it from under you.
5:34And I hope that we both smash and I hope you can forgive me.
5:37You didn't steal it. It's a it's a good play.
5:40And we're all in on it. And you don't think I don't take some of your picks and put it in my betting price primary.
5:47Do it all the time. I'm like, oh, yeah, this Daniel Jones pick that was just talking about.
5:52That was great. What a sweat that was under the past over time.
5:56The game goes into overtime. What a what a fun sweat.
5:59I'm like getting ready. Dude, I was calculating the whole time.
6:02I'm like, OK, he's at 30. Yeah, this is why did they do this drive?
6:06And then I then it was it was an awesome sweat.
6:09That was actually it's not we got the super fun.
6:12We got the perfect run out when it came to how that overtime period played out.
6:17They get the big play to tread well. But again, like this is why props are fun, man.
6:22Like when you get down to this, you're like, it's an overtime.
6:25There's no way he's going to finish under it.
6:28And that's the thing with the under dude. Like you got to sweat the whole game with these unders because at one
6:34one play can make the big difference. So you did.
6:37I did not steal this prop. Again, I also bet the Jeremiah love prop last week that you were on.
6:42You also hit the over. So I think that when we see eye to eye without even discussing it, I think it's just more conviction about certain plays.
6:50So QuinShon Judkins, it's a QuinShon Judkins week here.
6:52Fantasy pros and betting pros. All the Quinch on Judkins.
6:55We had attempted to figure out where like, was it possible to do an entire 10 card prop show on Judkins props?
7:01But then we thought better of ourselves because we're not that big a psychopaths.
7:05Rush attempts might still be in play if it moves down a little bit.
7:09There's a lot of different sides to this. But at the end of the day, this team wants to get Quinch on Judkins going.
7:16They want to give him the attempts. I know it's been sitting around 12.
7:20The line is moving up. This is a great spot.
7:23It's as simple as that. 59.5 over. That's the play.
7:26Erickson's with it. That's my bet. So Erickson, let's get to your first prop that I did not steal.
7:31But I do love this one. You told me about this one a couple days ago, and I very much like this one.
7:37Yeah, I'm going to go with Rashad White over two and a half receptions.
7:41Last week, the shoot from the hip over two and a half receptions was Rashad Bateman.
7:46And that came through with flying colors. So I want to give a shout out to the coach speak index because that
7:52was kind of what turned me on to Rashad Bateman as a player that the coaches are really high on this guy.
7:58And they really want to get more involved. And again, shout out to Greg Brainhouse.
8:02But that's been the buzz with Rashad White this week.
8:05It's been. Yeah, we really wanted to feature Rashad White.
8:08He looked really good at the end of week two.
8:11That's why we were getting him more involved. So I'm expecting more of the same from Rashad White as potentially the lead
8:17in this backfield with the Washington Commanders ahead of Jacory Krosky Merritt.
8:20If you look at the snaps, Rashad White paid 52% of the snaps to Bill's 37%.
8:25He also had six carries 39 yards. So played 93% of the snaps on third down.
8:29So that's really the selling point here with White is I don't really care about how many carries he gets.
8:35All I'm looking at is the game script in terms of they're playing Seattle, even though they're at home.
8:40There's a chance that Sam Darnold might even play in this game.
8:43So I think that Seattle rolls here. That was one of my favorite best bets in terms of picks against the spread.
8:50I feel very comfortable laying the points with Seattle.
8:52So a negative game script means to me that the commanders are going to be throwing a lot in the second half.
8:58And that means check down city to running backs, because that's the only thing Seattle gives up defensively.
9:03They suffocate you in every other single way, except they bleed targets to running backs in the passing game, because Mike McDonald knows.
9:10Yeah, sure. Dump it off to your running back.
9:12We don't care. It's not going to actually turn into points.
9:15So beat us through the air with your running backs through two games.
9:19Seattle ranks third and receptions, 10th and targets to running backs in the passing game, two straight overs to rookie running back.
9:25Shadarian Price went over his receptions against the Seahawks.
9:28And then you saw, excuse me, not Shadarian Price.
9:30Uh, from Andre Stevenson, Jerry Price is on the Seahawks.
9:33From Andre Stevenson went over his receptions against the Seahawks.
9:36And then last week, the one that you had, you had the receiving yards, but Jeremiah Love also went over his receptions prop against the Seattle Seahawks.
9:43So continuing the trend here, targeting running backs in the passing game against Seattle, who last year, 2025, they allowed the most
9:49catches and targets to running backs in the passing game.
9:52So white at two and a half receptions after he had six targets last week, caught all six for 40 yards.
9:58This one is an easy over for me. By the way, Jeremiah Love was a little bit of sweat too.
10:04Last week, a couple sweaty bets, half a yard.
10:06Yep. We got it by half a yard. And by the way, he had, he had two for 16 and then he caught another pass.
10:13And I was just like, oh my gosh, don't have the negative yard.
10:17Don't go backwards. And he caught one that was zero yards.
10:20And I was waiting for the correction, but there you go.
10:23Uh, Judkins Rashad white. That's how we're going to start this bad boy off props.
10:27Number two coming up here in a second, but find the best NFL player prop bets with a betting pros prop bet cheat sheet.
10:34We'll talk about that here in a second. We use the cheat sheet whenever we are putting our bets together.
10:40Funny enough, we had a couple of bets. Uh, I had a couple extras that I like and Erickson had a really
10:46astute point and said, go and check out the cheat sheet and the analyzer specifically to go and help you out to
10:52maybe make that be the differential between what we put on the show.
10:56What did it hate the most? If I wanted to get this other one in just one of the many ways that
11:02we use it, but you can quickly compare lines from leading sports books against our daily NFL projections to uncover the props offering the most value.
11:09Make smarter prop betting decisions all season long at betting pros.com slash props.
11:13Erickson, let's go back to you because it feels weird.
11:15Uh, me starting it off here. So let's go back to you.
11:19And actually this is one. I kind of had gave you a little bit.
11:23I mentioned this. This is one that I was originally thinking about and then I went into another direction and then I
11:29just shaved off my, uh, my, uh, what was it?
11:32Justin Herbert bet that I wanted to do, but this is one that I was actually a little scared to do.
11:38And I appreciate you because you have no fear.
11:40You are the lantern. You are the green lantern and you are locking this down.
11:44So let's hear prop number two that I was too scared to do.
11:48It is Quinshot Judkins week, but it's O'Meara and Hampton hate week here at Fanny's pros and betting pros, unfortunately.
11:53So O'Meara and Hampton is going to finish under 61 and a half rushing yards.
11:58I think that we both agree. We look at this matchup and I know that in the sheet, you originally had the
12:04Justin Herbert going over his either passing attempts or passing yards prop.
12:07Yeah. Passing yards because I think that's really their only recipe for any type of offensive success playing against the Buffalo bills.
12:13Bills are going to put up a 30 burger on their defense.
12:17They're going to have to try to keep pace.
12:19And if they just try to run the ball, like they've done the last two weeks where they ranked 31st in EPA
12:25per rush 31st and yards before contact per attempt.
12:28They're getting no room up front from this blocking unit that has already been banged up in the interior.
12:33So playing on the road against a Jim Leonard bills defense that has been selling out to stop the run.
12:39This is not the Sean McDermott run defense for the bills.
12:42I know traditionally it's always been, oh, it's so easy to run the ball on the bills.
12:47Yada, yada, yada. No longer the case under a new DC and a new defensive scheme.
12:51They are number one in the NFL and stuff rate at 33%.
12:55So a third of the time your running back is getting a cloud of dust.
12:59That's all that's happening here. And with O'Meara and Hampton, that's kind of his profile, right?
13:03He's not ripping off explosive runs. He is looking for contact.
13:06Now that worked last week against the Raiders. He put almost over a hundred rushing yards, but I just don't think that's
13:12going to be the case here with the charges potentially from a negative game script.
13:17Both running backs that the bills have faced this season have failed to surpass 60 rushing yards.
13:21Despite the fact that they combined for 36 carries Dave Montgomery had 20 carries for 60 yards against the bills defense in week one.
13:28And Jameer Gibbs could also not really get going on the ground in that Thursday night game where the lines were playing from behind basically from the jump.
13:36So I think that the Chargers offenses still struggles specifically on the run.
13:40And I'm going to take the under here on O'Meara and Hampton under 16 and a half rushing yards.
13:45And also the other out to is he fumbles again.
13:48That'll be a third game in a row. He might get benched.
13:51Give me this bet back. Give me this back.
13:54There's a great analysis. I love your analysis there.
13:56It was the last week after I did all of this.
13:59So you did it way better than I would have.
14:02But then I saw I was like, oh, yeah, the total from last week.
14:06And it just like slightly scared me off. But really great breakdown.
14:09And that's why you get it. You own that one where I'm going to go with this week.
14:14And for transparency, this is what replaced the Justin Herbert.
14:17So that's like a little side, you know, one for me was the Justin Herbert over passing yards.
14:22The betting pros analyzer didn't fall in love with it, but it does like this one better.
14:27And this is one that I just fell in love with.
14:30And we're going to Bucky Irving and we're going Bucky Irving over receptions.
14:34And he has been a reception demon early on in this year.
14:37This is given. This is a positive projection Evie on betting pros projection is rounding up to three.
14:42So that's why it's in support of this on the three star.
14:45He's hit this both of the games this year.
14:48He's had seven and four and then specifically going up against the Vikings, who one of the things with the Vikings that
14:54they're going to do is we know that they are going to blitz and they're going to bring everybody to the house.
15:00And that opens up opportunities, I think, for some of those dump off passes for quick decisions for Baker.
15:06And we saw that last week with the Bears where the running backs were targeted eight times for seven catches for 65 yards.
15:12Now they do have Kenny Gainwell. But so far, Bucky Irving has seen 71% of snaps.
15:17He's had routes run on almost 57% and on the team, almost 18% overall target share.
15:21So that can obviously change in a heartbeat. But if they're playing from behind at all, this puts us in a really good situation.
15:28Vikings kind of demon mode as well. I don't know if they're going to be able to run and it might be
15:34a lot of high powered offense and then just a lot of defense coming at Baker.
15:38So this is one that I just started to fall in love with the more I stare at it because he hits this.
15:45They've loved throwing him the ball a whole bunch.
15:47And I think the defensive scheme for the Vikings is going to play into that.
15:52So there's some support on betting pros. He's been hitting this this year.
15:55We need three as well. So it's 2.5 and there's actually some solid juice there.
15:59I've seen some juiced up numbers around one 25, but the best I found was around one oh eight.
16:05So Bucky Irving over receptions. That's what I'm going to lock into.
16:08Number two, you better hit it. And Herbert better not.
16:11You know, he doesn't hit it and then Herbert gets the overpassing and then I'm going to be going to be.
16:17I'm going to bet both. Yeah, I'm going to bet both.
16:20But you know, for the show purposes, I can't.
16:22All right, let's go in to bet number three.
16:25We're going to get in the mud. These are some dirty bets here, and I'm very I'm very excited about the one that you put up here.
16:32And then I'm just going to give you guys a little tease.
16:36My first under is about to jump in for my number three, and it's actually one of my favorite bets of the week.
16:42But yours is dirty. It's stinky. It's low. It's low name.
16:45And I love them. These are the ones that I love.
16:48So prop number three for you this week, Erickson.
16:51Hey, it's Ashanti Plummer from Foot Around and Find Out.
16:54Coming out of the draft, it's been a special time for us here at Futter Round.
16:58I want to thank everyone from the fans to the sponsors, especially Geico, not just for supporting AZ, but for showing up
17:04where it matters, like the business of Women's Sports Summit.
17:07That kind of thing really moves the needle. And now that AZ is starting a new life in Dallas, we don't know
17:13what next season is going to bring. But we know that we're all on the same team.
17:18And it's been amazing to feel the love and support.
17:21So keep showing up for our girl. Show up for each other.
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18:09We're headed to Ford Field, where the Lions are going to be taking on the New York Jets.
18:14There's going to be a ton of points in this game.
18:17So, of course, you got to get in some player prop action.
18:21Originally here, I was going to do Adonai Mitchell in the over on his receiving yards.
18:25It's gone up. But I'm going to be honest.
18:28Welsh got a little spooked when he popped up on the injury report with a finger injury.
18:33Because this guy already has stone hands. He's already playing like he's got nine fingers.
18:37Yeah, 100%. So that did just get me a little bit squeamish about betting in on him.
18:41So I'm just pivoting. I'm going down a tier in the Jets pecking order of targets.
18:46And I'm going to Kenyon Sadiq. The rookie tight end, the 16th overall pick in this year's draft to go over 26 and a half receiving yards.
18:54And honestly, I think I might like this play even versus a healthy Adonai Mitchell.
18:58Because I look at Sadiq and this opportunity he has potentially with Mason Taylor maybe out for the New York Jets.
19:04He hasn't practiced this week. He's dealing with a thumb injury.
19:07I don't know what happened to all these Jets players in their hands in this last game.
19:11And clearly something happened to all of them. Well, Kenyon Sadiq is healthy and he's ready to go.
19:16So he hasn't had a major role so far this season.
19:20He's only averaged three targets per game over the last two.
19:23But they have used him in unique ways around the red zone.
19:26He scored a rushing touchdown back in week one.
19:29And the matchup is divine for him against the Lions.
19:31They have been basically buns against every position, but specifically tight ends.
19:35Dead last in yards and targets allowed 93 and a half yards per game.
19:3912 and a half targets per game to opposing tight ends.
19:42Now back in week one, if you guys recall, I bet the over on Juwan Johnson.
19:46I bet the anytime touchdown on Juwan Johnson. Who was he facing that week?
19:50The Detroit Lions. So that's the only way I've actually gotten any of my touchdown calls.
19:55Correct. So spoiler. Yeah, I'm going back to Sadiq for my anytime touchdown because he is facing the Lions here.
20:00So I think that this is a big opportunity spot for him.
20:04He should he should run a lot more routes in a more uptempo game pace.
20:08And if I'm Aaron Glenn and I'm going to Detroit knowing that, okay, we're going to have to push pedal to the metal here.
20:14We're going to have to rip off explosive plays.
20:17Then you're going to have to use Kenyan Sadiq a lot in this specific matchup, especially if Mason Taylor is out.
20:23So planets are aligning kind of for Kenyan Sadiq, in my opinion, to really have a standout game.
20:28And he is so explosive. He hit over 20 miles per hour on his end around red zone touchdown run.
20:33If this guy gets into open space, he could catch one pass for 50 yards and we're going to hit this.
20:39So taking me over gets rookie tight end. All right.
20:42I love it. I am going to be playing an under this week.
20:46I'm going to tell you, I do think this is the type of guy where one play could completely ruin it.
20:52But he has been an under machine. Give me DK Metcalf under 51.5 receiving yards.
20:56You know, fun fact, as a Steeler against the Bengals, he has not gone over 51 yards.
21:01He has not hit that marker yet. So, you know, either do or trend here.
21:05It's been atrocious. It's been atrocious with the Steelers.
21:07Aaron Rodgers looks bad. He does not want to sling the ball, though.
21:11What you can acknowledge when I'm playing a yard marker here is that Metcalf does have a 44, essentially 45 percent air yard share.
21:18But some of those are just the ball slinging out into nowhere.
21:21He's looked really bad. He does get the first reads, but it's a whole lot of screen stuff.
21:26And then, you know, if you focus in on just how much better the Bengals have been, then PFF gives this a really, really poor matchup.
21:33Specifically, I think built around how Metcalf kind of struggles in general.
21:37I think that's where some of it is. But betting pros like this.
21:40Projections are under 50 on this. This is a four start bet, which has positive ROI on four start bets on betting pros.
21:47Projection EVs run 17 percent. The number even it floats around 52.
21:50So if I can get that 52, I really like that.
21:53But the Steelers have lost the passing game looks lost.
21:56And I think heavy coverage is going to be built around.
21:59And also you have a little bit banged up on the running game, but stopping DK Metcalf.
22:04And then it's you know what it's going to be.
22:07It's going to be Pat Friermuth. Actually, like Friermuth is kind of a smash this week, wherever the ball is going to go.
22:13They've been getting Bernard a little bit. There's a little bit of Roman Wilson.
22:17DK Metcalf doesn't have that great separation. And for me, what it's going to be, which is going to ruin this for
22:23me, this is going to be one of those spots where he catches one of those screen passes and then he goes for 40.
22:30Like that's what ruins this. It doesn't matter if he gets 10 targets.
22:34He catches 50 percent of them. The Aaron Rodgers doesn't want to sling the ball, doesn't have confidence in it.
22:39And the Bengals defense is a lot better. He doesn't hit this versus the Bengals.
22:43This is an easy under for me. DK Metcalf 51.5 under proud of me.
22:47You got an under. Yeah. Guess what? I mean, I got another under coming.
22:51I got two unders in the show. Let's go.
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23:35Props number four. Let's jump into it. I didn't realize this.
23:38We are we're kind of heavy in the rushing or running back receiving market here.
23:42I love it. You're going to play two and under.
23:45This one is another. I love when you're in the mud.
23:48And this to me is kind of a Sadiq mud play.
23:51And I'm all about this. So hit us with number four.
23:54Chris Rodriguez running back for the Jacksonville Jaguars under point five reception.
23:58So essentially, will he catch a pass? My answer is no.
24:01He has zero catches and targets this season through two weeks with the Jacksonville Jaguars.
24:05Last week when LeQuint Allen was back in a lineup, C-Rod ran just four routes.
24:09So right now, Bachel Toot is the lead back in the Jacksonville Jaguars backfield.
24:13And then they're mixing in guys like Amir Abdullah, LeQuint Allen, mostly playing on third downs, which leaves Chris Rodriguez kind of
24:19in this like early down red zone role where he's basically never targeted.
24:23He has seven career targets in the NFL, six career catches.
24:26He has played 37 games. Welsh, quick math. How many catches per game is that?
24:30Six catches in 37 games. Yeah, it's not 6, 12, 18, 24.
24:33That's about five. 0.16 catches per game is what he's averaging here.
24:37So the fact that the Jaguars offense is not even featuring running backs that much in the passing game, they have thrown
24:43at running backs at a 12% clip this season.
24:46That is fourth lowest in the NFL at three per game.
24:49So they have more running backs that catch passes than they're averaging running back targets per game this season.
24:54So, look, this could burn me. They could throw some type of weird swing pass to Chris Rodriguez out of the backfield,
25:00but I'm going to bet against that and it's not going to happen.
25:04So I'm going to sweat this the entire time I'm watching Parker Washington, Christian Gonzalez go head to head and be like,
25:10is Chris Rodriguez out there running a route? But it'll be fun because he's not going to catch any passes this week.
25:16The best is going to be when they do throw one and it bounces off his hands and you're just like, let's go.
25:22But then you're going to have to sweat it the rest of the way because they threw him one.
25:28This is a good sweaty one. And then they're going to realize, oh yeah, that's why we don't throw him the ball.
25:34Yeah. It has been a strange development. Like I just don't understand why they don't trust spatial tootin maybe in that space,
25:40because it seems like they did it a lot more last year.
25:43Obviously, Achan and what he did, but you know, look when Allen doesn't get on the field a whole bunch.
25:49And to your point, this is not what they bring in Chris Rodriguez to do.
25:53So this is a really fun one. Really low end number.
25:56I like that. I'm on the on an opposite end here for a heavy reception running back.
26:01And I'm looking at Devon Achan, Devon Achan over receptions at 3.5.
26:04I think this is the highest rated, I believe, or it actually might be my last one.
26:09I might be, I didn't realize I might be progressing myself up to the highest rating, but this is a four star
26:15bet from betting pros that it supports on on for me.
26:183.5. It's a little juicy, but projections are over for 17% projection EV market EV 7%.
26:23So there's a lot of support on it. I don't like really need to do all this stuff, but you know, Devon
26:29Achan, it's like a heavy snap percentage. He's running like 74% on routes.
26:33He's targeted 20% for the team as a total.
26:35And you're going up against a tough Chiefs team, which by the way, is going to just throw at will on them.
26:41They're going to be playing from behind. Malik Willis does not have massive trust in slaying in that ball.
26:47And that's why we see Devon Achan in this space.
26:50He only did catch three last week. He cashed us in the first one.
26:53They got to get him the ball a little bit more if they're going to stay competitive.
26:58I think they're going to be down a decent amount.
27:01And that's where you got it. You got to get Achan involved.
27:04So three and a half. I think it's a little bit low.
27:08I'm not even that uncomfortable playing the five, to be honest with you.
27:11But, you know, the heavy, heavy route run, heavy target percentage.
27:14They've got to show something like Willis has got to show something.
27:18This is a really, really great spot for Achan.
27:20And as far as like coverages go, staring over at PFF, linebacker coverage, if there's any linebackers on, they struggle.
27:26Defensive backs are going to play a much better spot if they decide to end up doing that.
27:31But I don't think they will if they're running those three wide receiver sets.
27:35So this is an advantage to Achan, regardless of even it being like a fair-ish graded matchup.
27:40Love Achan. Love the receptions. 3.5 over. Got to play it.
27:43Yeah. I really like this one too for you.
27:45I think Achan leads. I think I mentioned on the rank show.
27:49He leads the NFL in routes run among all running backs.
27:52And last week he had the targets, but he was like brutally in a fit.
27:56I don't think he caught like 50% of his targets, which you're always going to see that be a higher number with
28:02running backs because it's usually closer to line of scrimmage.
28:05So I think this is a really sharp play.
28:07Thank you, sir. Let's go to our last one.
28:10You're almost, you're just like, I love this for you.
28:13Good for you. Good for you. I need, I need some wins here.
28:16And that's where we're going to go with our last one.
28:19You have been, you've talked about a couple players a lot this week.
28:23Quinch on Judkins. We've said it's QuinShon Judkins week.
28:26Negatively, you've, you've played against Hampton, but there's one player that has come up as your option to pick at.
28:31And this player is who you were jumping in and the prop market this week.
28:35You are very pro this running back. Chase Brown running back for the Cincinnati Bengals going to go over 63 and a half rushing yards.
28:42I think that if the Bengals are going to try to slow down this Steelers pass rush playing on the road hostile
28:49environment, I think that got established the run here.
28:51And I think they trust Chase Brown enough to feed him enough volume to rip off some big plays.
28:56He has gone over 63 and a half rushing yards in seven of his last 10 games played dating back to last season.
29:03And in his two matchups against the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2025, he averaged over 100 rushing yards per game.
29:08He's averaged 68 rushing yards per game this season.
29:11So he's gone over this number once and failed to hit it in the other game.
29:15But you got to point out, he's had tough matchups to start the season.
29:19He has faced the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who have a really good run defense.
29:23And he's facing Houston Texans who actually went over this number against last week because the offense just had the ball for so often.
29:30That's going to be the same script because the Steelers offense is three and out in a cloud of dust.
29:35That's exactly what they do. First, they're going to throw the ball to DK Metcalf.
29:40He's not going to catch it. We already know that.
29:42We're going to have a ball control with Chase Brown.
29:45The Steelers have allowed an opposing running back to hit at least 76 rushing yards in two straight games.
29:50And after week three, it'll be three. Love it.
29:53My final one. This is actually a play that I talked about on.
29:57I'm going to talk about on the Sunday night football show on the betting show.
30:01But sometimes it kind of like the Dana Jones one when I really like a play.
30:05I'm going to jump all into it. And that's this one.
30:08And this is my second under of the show.
30:11And it's Matthew Stafford passing yards under 20, 243.5.
30:13And there is. I would just tell you, there are actually also a few places.
30:18I mean, I guess that's the number I'm locking in, but I do see like even a 249.5, but it's right in that 240 range.
30:25That's kind of my key number. I actually had originally looked at this at like 240.5.
30:29And this has to do a lot of like where I think this the script of this game is going to go.
30:35We talked about on the rank show and on fantasy pros that it's almost like this inverse type of game for me
30:41where it's you would expect the Broncos would be a team that want to keep it on the ground.
30:47And then the high flying Rams would want to throw the ball a whole bunch.
30:51Rams look like they could be without Puka. The Broncos might be without 400 different running backs.
30:56Erickson might be suiting up for them. So this might be a situation where the Rams want to establish the run, keep
31:02the clock down, not try to get into heavy pass game.
31:05And the Broncos are trying to play the high side.
31:08They're trying to throw the ball. But also, unlike the previous matchup, the Broncos are going to be tough from the pass game.
31:14If there's no Puka, Sertan locks down Devante Adams in a much more strict way.
31:18So it benefits this team to run Kyron, to run Blake Corum.
31:22And I think what that does is that keeps the ball out of Matthew Stafford's hands a little bit.
31:27And there is support on this on betting pros.
31:30This is a three star. I think it was at one point of five.
31:34So let's move down a little bit. But over 25 units, the three star bets, three star bets have actually been very sneaky on betting pros.
31:41And projections are right around that general line. But from a grade perspective, you're talking like a top 10, a top 10
31:47pass rush, top five in wide receiver coverage. They're without their big wide receiver.
31:51I think it's pretty simple. I think they're going to play to the under.
31:55Oh, by the way, did I mention Broncos have not given up over 200 yards passing so far?
32:00And they have gone against Patrick Mahomes and Trevor Lawrence.
32:03So I think they're going to play it on the ground.
32:06Matthew Stafford underpassing yards, two unders in one show.
32:08What could go wrong? What could go wrong, Erickson?
32:11What could go wrong? Touchdown calls. Let's talk about some touchdowns.
32:14But before what could go right? Touchdown calls. Let's go.
32:17Come on. We need it to go right. We need the touchdowns.
32:20We need a first touch. We talked about this.
32:23We get a first touchdown. First touchdown is going to juice the rest of our year that we can play it up
32:29here because we are tracking the ROI. But before we jump into what we are playing this week, if you guys are
32:35looking for an edge in touchdown bets, our touchdown score report compares anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to
32:41help identify the best anytime touchdown bets. So head over to bettingpros.com slash touchdown for the latest touchdown prop analysis today.
32:47Every single week we pick like a, you know, between like, you know, even money to like one right before two to one essentially.
32:54And then we'll try to do like a over two to one play.
32:57That's where we like to sit in for our touchdown bets on every single week.
33:01You are the only one that is called one though.
33:04You should probably have another. I have been a little bit abysmal.
33:08It's also played out. Dude, I'm doing a, I'm so into this, but I'm doing one of those touchdown survivor pools and it's three strikes.
33:15And your boy has got to, I got to play the big dog this week.
33:19Otherwise I'm going to be eliminated after week three and the survivor there.
33:22Touchdowns have been rough. So we both got to get back last week.
33:26Oh, I think I had Mike Evans and then my, remember Mike Evans, right before at the goal line doesn't get in
33:32and then he gets pulled from the game. So that's screwed me.
33:36So that was super fun. And I had him on here too, which didn't get me in.
33:40We had some close touchdown calls. We didn't get it.
33:43Uh, you and I both have, uh, kind of our lower end play and we actually both have gone in to the
33:49more than three and a half to one on our bigger call.
33:53So Erickson, why don't you kick us off with your main dog?
33:56And then how deep are you going for your second one?
33:59Yeah. Going to the dog pound, QuinShon Judkins. He's going to score touchdown.
34:03You're still getting it at even money or close to even money plus one Oh five for him to score a touchdown.
34:09Just think he's going to have a monster game.
34:11So give me Quinchot Judkins to score a touchdown for the Cleveland Browns.
34:15And then my long shot, anytime touchdown, I did kind of allude to when I was talking about Kane Sadiq and maybe
34:21that's what we got to do is we got to pair one of the guys having a monster receiving game, rushing yard
34:27game, and then pairing it with a touchdown. It worked with John Johnson.
34:31I did it in week one. So I'm kind of rolling it back here, targeting the Detroit Lions as the defense to
34:37make my Kenyan Sadiq anytime touchdown bet hit. Talked about how he scored in week one on a end around play.
34:43So they like using him around the red zone.
34:46And the Detroit Lions have given up four touchdowns to tight ends.
34:49They've given up a touchdown to two bills, tight ends and two states, tight ends.
34:53People forget when John Johnson was sucking for the first three quarters of that game, because I was watching it.
34:59Noah Fant was going off and having a very productive game.
35:02And he also scored a touchdown against that team.
35:04So Knox scored. Kinkade scored. Everybody scores against Detroit Lions at tight end.
35:08And that will include Sadiq after week three. Tight ends tried and true.
35:12That's why I've always lived in that range. And guess what?
35:15I'm doubling down. These are both tight end bets this week for me.
35:18So mine, I'm going to take Travis Kelsey versus the worst secondary in the NFL.
35:23Travis Kelsey relived the glory days. He looks faster on the field.
35:26Mahomes, we got that trust separate. Great. You have to worry about finding separation against the Dolphins.
35:31They're buns. So this is a spot early on that I think we're going to get to just the old vintage chiefs.
35:37And what does that mean? That means Travis Kelsey touchdown and we're getting it at plus one 30.
35:42Only thing that's going to go against me is if it goes to like, it's a stupid Rishi Rice one and then
35:48an Xavier worthy one, they might be up by three touchdowns by the half and it's just not going to play.
35:54But I really love this one. Travis Kelsey plus one 30.
35:57And then my longer play. I think I kind of alluded to is that I, I think the Steelers offense looks really, really rough.
36:04Aaron Rogers looks really rough. I don't think they're going to just get completely shut out, but it's just not going to be from the wide receivers.
36:11It's going to be from the tight ends, big hole in what the Bengals is coverage wise have.
36:16They are the worst linebacker coverage is dead last in the league.
36:20Safety coverage dead last in the league. Pat Friermuth is the play here.
36:23I think Eric, what is it? Fitzy has them like top 10 in fantasy this week.
36:28He's almost four to one on this line. So I think if they can get into the red zone, if they can
36:34rush that ball up, not give it to DK Metcalf, Rogers is going to be looking for Friermuth because that's the coverage play.
36:40So that is going to be my deep play touchdown call.
36:43So some tight ends. We're going to go heavy tight.
36:46If I can, if we both get our long shot call, we're back to positive ROI on our touchdowns, which will surprise
36:52that both of these are like you have plus three 70 minds plus 400.
36:56And I feel like, I feel like those are really good values for these type of bets.
37:01Yeah. All right. Last one. This is a new addition.
37:04We do this year is our first touchdown calls.
37:06We, we haven't gotten there by the way. Am I wrong about this?
37:10Has Christian has Christian Watson had a first touchdown in every single Packers game so far this year.
37:15He is at least had two of the three first touchdowns at minimum.
37:19I feel like we scored the first touchdown for the Packers tonight.
37:22Yeah. That's what I'm saying. Cause he did it tonight and I know he did it like in week one.
37:28I think he scored the first touchdown in all three games.
37:31Maybe I'm wrong about that. I don't think you are.
37:34Well, I know it's not the running backs. No.
37:36These touchdowns of the green Bay Packers. I know that very, very firmly.
37:40I meant to go look for the game. So I think you might be right.
37:44Yeah. Sorry for throwing this out. If it's like wrong and nobody cares, but whatever.
37:48But I think he's at least scored two of the first three.
37:52This has nothing to do with this, but I was just thinking about like, wow, how I don't recall seeing like a
37:58guy dominate first touchdowns this early on like he has.
38:00And that actually kind of takes me to, I'm a little disappointed in you because my expectation out of you is I
38:07want to see 50 to ones when I see your, your first touchdowns.
38:10And I, I think you might be able to hit this one, but I just, I felt left alone in a, you
38:16had an 80 to one last week and now you're just going to like some puny little seven to one or something like that.
38:23So let's get your first touchdown call. You are, you're in it to win it.
38:27This is probably going to be the lowest first touchdown call odds.
38:31I bet you're going to play this year, but hit it, hit us with it.
38:35He's trying to get in the green. Okay. I don't blame him.
38:38Trying to get, trying to get on base, man.
38:41OBS. What is it? What is it on base percentage?
38:44Yeah. That's a, that records your streaming and it can get you on base.
38:48I'll be honest. OBS. Tony Pollard is my first touchdown bet.
38:51I, I think that these odds are just too long.
38:53I mean, seven to one for a starting running back who saw four goal line carries last week did not end up finding the end zone.
39:01Cam Ward ended up scoring twice on the ground.
39:03I don't think that will happen two weeks in a row.
39:06I can, we're talking about buns cheeks, the giants run defense, man.
39:10It is absolutely atrocious. So I think the Titans are live here to just win this game outright.
39:15I agreed with Seth on that take because Jamis wins.
39:17Jamis Winston is the most wide range of outcomes type of quarterback where he can win you games.
39:23He can lose you games in dramatic fashion. I do think that the Titans have an edge here.
39:28And I think given the fact that Pollard got more run in the second half of last week's game, ton of goal line opportunities.
39:34I think he finds the end zone early on here in the Titans jump out to an early lead as road underdogs
39:40against the Giants, who, if you look at what they have done on the ground, most rushing yards allowed over expectation per carry of the season.
39:48Highest rate of rushes over expected to running backs in league.
39:51So it sets up very favorably for Tony Pollard.
39:53By the way, we totally forgot about the set.
39:56I think Seth's mad at me. I think he's done with me with my Niner stuff and picking on him last week.
40:02I don't blame him. I don't blame him. I was shocked by the, we all have bad calls, so it's okay.
40:08And he didn't want, I didn't think to even ask, and he's probably super happy about it.
40:13I love you, Seth. Worst call ever, but I love you.
40:16You're super smart. You're going to make a bunch of million calls.
40:19Just ain't going to be with the dolphins. Speaking of the reason that made me think of it too, it's 49ers.
40:25My first touchdown run is going to be with the 49ers here.
40:28And I'm, you're going to love this because I'm going to go theme here.
40:3240. This is his birthday. No, it's not. It's not his birthday.
40:36Well, there's a celebration around him right now. And the problem is that celebration costs him $14,000.
40:40Kyle use check is 40 to one for the first touchdown after being fined by the NFL for.
40:45However, his chugging celebration, mind you, his name is juice.
40:48He says he doesn't drink beer. They sent him a letter that he was displaying an act of alcohol and he had
40:54to drinking alcohol, which by the way, sponsored by Bud Light that, you know, that was a whole egregious thing.
41:00The NFL is kind of up in arms right now about suspensions or fines with these type of celebrations.
41:05The team is rallying around Kyle use check. They put a little thing in his thing, not beer.
41:10They put a can when he did an interview.
41:13George Kittle is a I ratting him out in the top.
41:16Everyone's having fun with it. Well, guess what's going to be the most fun when the 49ers get into the red zone,
41:22they play action to Christian McCaffrey, and they throw that outlying pass to Kyle use check on the first play.
41:28He scores the first touchdown and then does he do the juice?
41:31They're all planning it. It's 40 to one. There's really no good data to it.
41:35It's just me creating narrative. But sometimes on first touchdowns, narrative is what I got 40 to one.
41:40Kyle use check book it. I don't think I love this.
41:43Love this one. That's my love this one. Definitely squad ride.
41:46And let's go, baby. All right. What are you guys riding?
41:50Drop it in the comments below. First touchdowns. Love to see.
41:53Those are probably like the most fun. If you've got some favorite props, drop them below.
41:57And thank you guys for hanging out with us.
42:00Hopefully you guys are going to cash some good bets.
42:02We'll be back again next week. We'll tell you how the card went.
42:06Hopefully it's good. We're in a good mood and we're not vibes are down or anything like that, but maybe we'll hit some touchdowns as well.
42:13That'll be the big play. And can I continue the is it the unders?
42:17That's the fun one in Gibbs. So I got these little fun games that we're going to play with, but hopefully you guys dug the bets.
42:25Those are the props. Those are the touchdowns. Download the betting pros app.
42:28You guys can log yours in. You can check out all the data that supports it and you can see some really
42:34great recommendations on picks when using the app. So go and download that today.
42:38Get the premium side. So you have access to everything and have a ton of fun with it.
42:43Good luck in week three for Andrew Erickson. I'm Chris Welsh.
42:46We'll talk to you next time right here on betting pros.
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43:38Thanks to Geico and our listeners. This is Daniel Cormier from the Daniel Cormier show.
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44:35This is an I heart podcast guaranteed human.
