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0:28All right, and welcome into the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
0:32By the time you're tuning in, the NFL season has certainly kicked off.
0:35But if you played someone like A.J. Brown or maybe even Drake May, you might be chasing some upside and in need of some must-start players.
0:43So we got you covered with this primer episode of the program.
0:47I'm your host, Seth Wilcox, joined by a man who puts pen to paper each and every single week here for us at FP in long form fashion.
0:55He's downtown, Derek Brown. D-Bro, how are you following a relatively rocky start to the pro football season, returning on Wednesday night?
1:02Oh man, I mean the betting record's good. Anybody not following me on the Betting Pros app?
1:07I don't know what the hell you're doing. We're already making money here, baby.
1:11But outside of that, yeah, you're not too happy in the Fantasy Streets, my man.
1:15Drake May? Not a good game. Ramondre Stevenson volumed his way to a decent game.
1:20Yeah. So I mean, dude, he would be like a top five play this week if he'd gotten the end zone.
1:26But outside of him, you started A.J. Brown? You're not happy.
1:29You started Hunter Henry? You're not happy. Yes. You started anybody from the Seattle backfield?
1:34You're not happy. Sam Dardorn and his Superflex? You're not happy.
1:37So a lot of unhappy people out there that we got to help here, Seth.
1:42Yeah, we absolutely do. And that is the point of this program.
1:45We're shooting for upside. We're shooting for those players maybe towards the end of your bench or maybe even out there on
1:52the waiver wire that you can acquire and go and fire up this week with confidence.
1:56And D-Bro, before we jump in everything, can you just give us like a 500-foot level of what the primer is and
2:03where we can find it each week, man? Fantasypros.com, baby.
2:06It is live every Thursday morning during the regular season.
2:09It's a living, breathing document. It's my love letter of every single week of the NFL season.
2:14So I bring you down the rabbit hole of my process with coverages and plays and matchups and everything in between.
2:20I try to give you as much in-depth information in a TLDR fashion as I can because I know everybody's busy.
2:26I know everybody's got no attention spans for all this kind of stuff.
2:30So, you know, if you're going to hop around the primer, and that's one of the big things that I love that
2:37Fantasypros has done with the primer since the last five years.
2:40The ability to, yeah, sure, you can control F and search your players and do all this kind of stuff.
2:46You can also hop around the primer from game to game with the links that are in the primer for all the players that you need.
2:54So if you want to go read my capsule on a player from the Buccaneers, fine, go ahead and do it.
3:00You want to go back and bounce back and go see what's going on with the Steelers, and you're looking at, maybe
3:07do I have Aaron Rodgers in a Superflex? Hmm, scary.
3:10But this is all to say that it's 15,000 to 20,000 words every single week on every single player that I think matters for Fantasy.
3:17And, but we have the easy functionality that you don't have to go wade in the waters of 20,000 words.
3:23You can just get in, look at all the players you need, and as well as take advantage of my primer if
3:30you have all your leagues sync to Fantasypros as well.
3:33You got the app and stuff. So whether you're going my primer, or you're going to hop around the primer article itself, it's all there for you, man.
3:41It's almost kind of like the sports bar of fantasy football articles, I would say, where you can slide in, pony up
3:47to a bar, still get a drink real quick.
3:50Hey, maybe I just want some wings. They'll be out in 10 minutes, baby.
3:54I can grab those wings. I can scarf them down.
3:57I'm out the door in 30 minutes. You know, we're not like the fast food.
4:02We're not a McDonald's or a Burger King. You can't have it your way.
4:06But we are going to give you the right takes here from Derek Brown in the primer every single week.
4:12That's a wonderful analogy. That's a wonderful analogy, Seth.
4:14Thank you. Because also, if you want to stay and play for a little bit and buy a round of shots for
4:21the whole room, you could do that as well.
4:24Get going on the touch tunes a little bit.
4:26You know, maybe fire up a little country music on there.
4:30I'm about it, man. I'm about it. Absolutely. All right.
4:33Now we've gone too far. Now we've gone too far.
4:36Can't go to the country music. We've gone too far.
4:39Do you have a number one touch tune song, Derek?
4:42Is there a number one that if like the bar is crowded, people are vibing pretty good.
4:47What are you throwing on the touch tunes? Journey.
4:49Don't stop believing. Okay. I like it. I like it.
4:52Everyone knows how to sing that one. Absolutely. And before we jump into the plays, folks, quick shout out to everyone who's
4:59tuning in either on the Fans Pro's YouTube channel or that audio feed.
5:03We're trying to get to 300,000 subscribers on YouTube by the end of this season.
5:07We can only get there with your help. So please give this video a thumbs up and make sure you subscribe to the channel if you're new.
5:15Let's go ahead and jump right into the play starting at quarterback where Derek, you think it might be a pretty nice
5:22debut for one Malik Willis out there in Sin City.
5:25I definitely do, man. This is not like, you know, kind of a sideways Brock Bowers take on the Raiders and stuff like that.
5:32But yeah, I'm looking at Malik Willis in the week one rankings and ECR over on fantasypros.com at QB 19.
5:38And I think it's kind of wild, dude. I would be starting him over a laundry list of guys that are going out there.
5:45Like if you got Malik Willis and Brock Purdy, give me Malik Willis because and I know we're, you know, we're recording
5:52this into the future and that game has already taken place.
5:55But Malik Willis, I think he can come out and have a really solid game.
5:59And this all goes back to yes, the throwing, but the rushing dude.
6:03If you draft a Malik Willis, if you're considering starting in week one, you know what your bread is buttered, dude.
6:09And that's Malik Willis on the ground, man. He's averaged 44.8 rushing yards per game in his starts over the last two seasons.
6:16Over the last two year or last three years amongst quarterbacks, that would rank top five in every single season.
6:22You have a Raiders defense that yes. Okay. They brought in a lot of guys.
6:27They could be better. Is that they're automatically better in week one?
6:30We shall see. And if that's not the case, we're talking about a Raiders defense last year that gave up the fourth
6:37most rushing yards to design QB runs. Okay. Malik Willis, let's go.
6:40As well as giving up the 10th highest pass rating and the 9th highest passing success rate.
6:45So while we can have hope for the Raiders defense, I don't think we see them come out and be formidable and
6:52just an elite unit in week one. And Malik Willis can get it done with his legs.
6:57And I think he can have success throwing the ball through the air.
7:01I'm really excited about Malik Willis this week, Derek.
7:04So much that I'm contemplating in a couple of different spots.
7:07Do I fire up someone like Jared Goff versus Malik Willis?
7:10I think I'm still going Goff in that circumstance.
7:13But it's a real conversation, right? Because the Raiders here, I'm not certain they're going to be able to move the ball that well.
7:20I'm not sure they're going to be able to possess the ball for that long of a time with no Brock Bowers.
7:26Ashton Gentry, not 100%. And Malik Willis boot scooting, boogying all around.
7:30I'm all about it here. Even from a betting standpoint, Derek, he's 3-1 for an anytime touchdown.
7:35He scored two touchdowns in his one start last year for the Packers.
7:39So, you know, I'm there on that side of the things, too.
7:43So Malik Willis this week, I think he gets it done in Miami.
7:46He's going to have to get creative pass catcher, right?
7:49Fine H. And out of the backfield. Can we get one of these rookies like Caleb Douglas going?
7:55We shall see. But Chris Bell, not on a snap count.
7:58They've already come out with that. He will not be on a snap count.
8:02So there you go. All right. Derek, take us to the running back position where you're going to start featuring a former
8:09love of mine, a Pittsburgh Steeler who has now gone south like a lot of these retirees do in this part of the state.
8:16So you've lost that love and feeling? You don't have it for Kenny Gamewell anymore, Seth?
8:21I still have it, but it's like an old flame from high school that's kind of fading.
8:26You know what I mean? Kind of fading. Well, I'll just tell you you need to text the old flame then because
8:32Kenny Gamewell, I think, gets it done in week one, dude.
8:36For all the upgrades of this Bengals defense this offseason, got better in the D-line, got better in the back end of the secondary.
8:43Their linebacker room is still quietly terrible, Seth. And I think when you're looking at just telling yourself a story of how
8:49the Bucs game plays out, I'm low on Emeka Buka.
8:52I think he gets a shadow from D.J. Turner.
8:55Not even agnostic of the toe stuff. I think not only does Chris Godwin, we will talk about here in a little
9:01bit, but I think Kenneth Gamewell gets it done through the air in this game.
9:06So if you're in a PPR league, you look at him as a strong PPR flex.
9:11Going against the Cincinnati defense that gave the six most yards per target, the second most yak per reception, and the third
9:17highest yards per route run, two running backs through the air, can we get a better matchup for Kenny Gamewell out the gate in week one?
9:25I don't think so. Got to play him. Yeah, I don't hate it.
9:29Keep in mind, too, this is the same team.
9:31Logan Wilson was really, I felt like, just an absolute stalwart there in that linebacker position.
9:36He retired at the age of 29 earlier this offseason.
9:39So I think that does leave a big hole that the Bengals didn't necessarily fill.
9:44And if you think the Bengals are going to go out there and score points, well, wouldn't you think that Tampa Bay
9:50is going to want their best pass-catching running back out there on the field, too, in Kenneth Gamewell?
9:56And we've seen him not only working out of the backfield, he's been in the slot at times.
10:01He's also worked into running back sets, so I think they get creative.
10:05I like Kenneth Gamewell this week. I think he was a value in drafts.
10:09And speaking of a value in drafts, man, this was one that I left my home league draft on Sunday without him, and I took Harold Fingham Jr.
10:17over him. And I already have buyer's regret. I know.
10:20You should. I know. You should. You should. Shame.
10:23Shame upon your house. Shame upon your name, Seth.
10:26What do you have out there from the running back position?
10:29Oh, young Marshawn Lloyd making his starting debut against the Vikings.
10:32ECR apparently hates him, man. He's RB 29, and I don't understand why.
10:36It is low. He is a locked-in RB 2 for this week.
10:40Who's taking work away from this man? You're worried about Chris Brooks?
10:43You shouldn't be. You're worried about Caleb Johnson? You shouldn't be.
10:47Josh Jacobs ain't walking through that door for week one, people.
10:50So what the hell are we doing here? Like, Marshawn Lloyd, I understand the Vikings, like, we could talk about, okay, their defense might be improved.
10:58We'll see, man. They made a lot of different changes in their D-line.
11:01They got two rookies. Now, how fast do they gel in Caleb Banks and Big Citrus there up front?
11:07Can they hit the ground running in week one?
11:10If they don't, we're talking about a Vikings run defense last year that was middle of the road, dude.
11:1516th in explosive run rate allowed. 15th in yards of contact for attempt allowed.
11:20Gave it the sixth highest rushing success rate and at the fourth lowest stuff rate last year.
11:25So, if this is not a truly improved unit, I think Kyler Murray also struggles in this game.
11:30Marshawn Lloyd is going to have opportunities both on the ground, through the air.
11:34We saw him in the preseason on a damn angle route, you know?
11:38So I think Marshawn Lloyd is locked into 15-plus opportunities, split those between pass game and rushing, and if he gets in
11:45the end zone, man, he's a top 15 back this week, and yet he's being ranked as an RV3.
11:50This felt like low-hanging fruit in the ECR in the rankings, where I was like, I pulled it up, and I was like, what are we doing here?
11:59Y'all are really starting Jeremiah Love over Marshawn Lloyd.
12:01Everybody really ranked Jadarian Price over Marshawn Lloyd. They ranked Jalen Warren, Quinshawn Judkins, Chuba Hubbard, Basial Tootin, Rico Dowdle over Marshawn Lloyd.
12:08This cannot be, Seth. Especially with Tucker Craft not 100%, right?
12:11Like, him and Josh Jacobs, those two have been really the, you know, returning studs of this team the last couple years, right?
12:18And both of them are not going to be, I mean, Jacobs won't be out there, and we're not going to see
12:25Tucker Craft likely at 100%, probably on a snap count here to start week one.
12:29So it feels like, you know you got what you got from Christian Watson.
12:33Jane Reed's going to get his gimmicky touches, as always, right?
12:37We don't really know if Matthew Goon will take that next step, but Marshawn Lloyd feels like kind of just a blatant
12:43opportunity in front of everyone's faces, and they're not seeing it.
12:46So, yeah, I like that a lot. I like that a lot, man.
12:50And also what I like, Derek, is giving away free stuff, and that's what we have right now for everyone.
12:56If you want a chance to win a signed Kyron Williams, Los Angeles Rams mini helmet, then this is your shot.
13:03All you have to do right now is leave a review on either Apple Podcasts or Spotify, screenshot that review, and then email it to mailbag at fantasypros.com.
13:11Again, that's mailbag at fantasypros.com. We will announce a winner right here on the program, so make sure you ring the bell
13:17so you can know when all podcasts are up, and then you can tune in and make sure you find out if
13:24you win that prize, if you're a lucky winner.
13:27Derek, can you make a giveaway winner? I haven't won many giveaways over my life.
13:31I think I have a signed Tyreek Hill jersey, but I think that's about all I have, which isn't worth much now.
13:38Yeah, I don't think you're going to get that.
13:40That might be time to just head to Goodwill with that one.
13:44Yeah. You know what? Going back, I won two giveaways when I was a kid, like school age and stuff like that.
13:50But past that, nothing. I never went to a pro game and got the t-shirt cannon or anything like that.
13:56Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. No, no, no. I'm not lucky, Seth.
14:00You are not someone who's lucky and receives, but you are certainly someone who gives away that good luck, and you're going to do it here.
14:07And once again, touching my heart with the Pittsburgh Steeler here.
14:11What do you got? DK Metcalf week, man. I think he's going to ball out in week one, and this is a
14:17combination of coverage matchup and the Atlanta Falcons' woeful secondary.
14:20Week 12 through 18 last year, the Atlanta Falcons had the fourth highest single high rate in the NFL, 59.4% of their snaps.
14:27Why does this matter? It's because DK Metcalf, man, it's been easy.
14:31Know when to start him and know when to not start him is single high matchups, fire up DK.
14:36Two high matchups, sit DK. This has gone back all the way to freaking Seattle, dude.
14:41And last year, the splits held true. Against single high, DK Metcalf had a 28% target per route run rate, 2.38 yards per route run.
14:49Again, looking at the secondary, weeks 12 through 18, the Atlanta Falcons gave up the seventh most receiving yards to perimeter wide receivers.
14:55Wow. I think Metcalf gets it done in week one, dude.
14:59Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it feels like a good spot for him.
15:02We know he's healthy. We know some of these other receivers still kind of working on that chemistry with Aaron Rodgers.
15:08Apparently, like him and DK are best friends. And with some of the things I've heard recently about what DK believes is
15:15happening down there in Antarctica, I'm not super surprised, right?
15:18Dude. I just researched this yesterday. We recorded an episode of the tailgate.
15:22And I think Alfredo brought it up where he was like, you do realize DK thinks that there's a secret civilization in Antarctica.
15:29And I was like, I am today years old finding this out.
15:32Are you serious? What are we talking about, man?
15:35Like, I mean, there's tinfoil hats and there's tinfoil hats, my man.
15:39That's why. And I just think two Steelers are set up really well here to just run away from the Falcons, right?
15:45I mean, this is a team with a serious pass rush going up against one of the most brittle and beaten quarterbacks
15:52that I don't even know if he lasts this whole game with captain Jack, Nick Herbig, TJ Watt, and Alex Highsmith coming off the edge.
15:59Right. And we know Aaron Rodgers track record of success is not only very strong in week one, also super strong eight
16:06and three straight up against, uh, or with Mike McCarthy there at the helm calling these plays.
16:11So excited to see what happens out there in the steel city at 1 PM Eastern time.
16:16Let's go ahead and move forward where again, I think you're paying her to me because not a former Pittsburgh Steeler, but
16:22a former Penn state Nittany line hashtag. We are baby.
16:25Here we go. Oh my, your Penn state love is, is so undefeated.
16:29I should be. Do you just see what we did?
16:32We just blanked Marshall, man. Come on. It's Marshall.
16:35My man, don't get too, don't get too far out ahead of your skis, but I think people can do this with Chris Godwin this week.
16:43I think Godwin's going to eat in this matchup.
16:45Kind of talked about it with Kenny Gainwell. I think DJ Turner is going to be on a Mecca.
16:51Buka. It's going to push targets to other players in this offense.
16:54I think one will be Kenny Gainwell. Um, another benefactor of this is Chris Godwin, dude.
16:59You look at last year, weeks 13 through 18, he's back on the field.
17:03Chris Godwin was not washed dude in that sample.
17:06One, he did, he, he was in his customary role, played almost 60% of the snaps out of the slot.
17:12He had 1.88 yards per route run, 0.107 first downs per route run for context, the arts per route run.
17:18That's pretty freaking solid. That first downs per route run mark is elite.
17:22So Chris Godwin is not washed. You're looking at a Cincinnati defense that was horrible against defending the slot last year.
17:28And again, going back to, I think the Bengals are going to field an improved defense, but there are still some issues
17:35with this defense that they got to clear up this year, man.
17:38Jalen Davis was not good last year amongst 33 qualifying slot corners.
17:42He gave up the fourth highest rate of stepper separation.
17:45He was 15th in blanketed rate. This team overall, this defense gave up the fifth most yards per target to opposing slot receivers.
17:52This all was to say, Chris Godwin and ECR wide receiver 31.
17:55I'm not telling you that you have to start him as a confident wide receiver too, but I think he can produce as that in week one.
18:03DK Metcalf, Chris Godwin back to back in ECR.
18:06Who do you like more this week? If you had to pick between one of them.
18:11Half point, I'll go DK because the touchdown equity in that offense PPR, it's Chris Godwin all day.
18:16Okay. All right. Veteran move there from Derek Brown.
18:19And speaking of veterans, he's selecting one here at the tight end position.
18:23What do you got D bro? Oh, I'm not telling everybody to feel good about Mark Andrews and season long formats, but I'm telling you good, feel good.
18:31I hit week one for Mark Andrews. And again, I'm just picking on the Bengals in this episode.
18:36So looking at the Colts defense, Lou and Arumo has given up production to receiving tight ends year after year, after year,
18:43after year, if anybody, again, once a nice little spend of their time, go look at the Cincinnati Bengals defense over the
18:49last five to 10 years versus tight ends, not last year, but all the years before for Lou and Arumo during his tenure with the Bengals.
18:57It is God awful. That's when they were historically bad against tight ends for a couple of years, right?
19:03Yep. Yep. Dude. I mean, but it holds up like over like six or seven straight years.
19:08You're talking about a defense that's top 12 and receiving yards allowed to tight ends.
19:12Oh, sweet Lou brought it over to the Colts last year.
19:16Indy last season, fourth, most yards per target, 12th, most fantasy points per opportunity allowed to tight ends.
19:21Again, I'm not telling you to feel good about Mark Andrews for the whole season.
19:25Sure. But I am feeling good about him. Week one.
19:28I think he scores a touchdown. I think he can be a top 12 tight end.
19:33If you're dealing with Brock Bowers issues and you picked up Mark Andrews late, or you've got other guys that are in
19:40that low end tight end one category, like just looking at ECR for fantasy pros right now, if you're debating between Isaiah
19:46likely or a Michael mayor, and you have Mark Andrews on your roster, even other guys like a George Kittle, adult Kincaid,
19:53I'm playing Mark Andrews over these guys. Yeah. I don't hate that call at all.
19:57I was talking about this game earlier today with Andrew Erickson.
20:00And while we do like the under in this matchup, I'm playing the under no doubt.
20:05I think the interesting thing is that like, this is a brand new interior offensive line for Baltimore.
20:11How well is there? Henry getting acquitted to that.
20:13And also like, I know all the Jacoby lane hype and you know, I'm a big Elijah Surratt guy.
20:19These are still rookies, right? Like aside from Zay flowers, Mark Andrews is the number two target in this offense.
20:25So not a bad play, you know, and I like your, you know, your thought there that, Hey, I don't feel great about him season long.
20:33It goes back to our bar analogy. I don't want to be in a bar every single day.
20:38Right. But a couple, a couple of times a month, hanging out with the boys, crushing a couple of brews, maybe a couple of burgers and wings.
20:46I'm there for it. So speaking of the bar analogy, it's kind of like with Andrews, you're cool hanging out from like 10 to midnight, right?
20:54But once it gets past midnight, nothing good happens after about 2am.
20:57So like week four through on for Mark Andrews, nothing good probably happens.
21:01So we're, we're just heading out of the bar at midnight.
21:04Just leave the bar at midnight. Yep. Enjoy from 10 to 12.
21:08It's fine. Yes. Yes. Go for dinner, have, have some late night drinks, but I agree.
21:13I am in home tucked away, hopefully by midnight.
21:15And hopefully y'all are tucked away. Some great fantasy football starting options here from downtown.
21:20Derek Brown. That's going to do it though, for us on this episode of the fancy pros fans, football podcast, comment down below your favorite week.
21:28One must start players. We want to hear from you.
21:31And while you're here, make sure you smash in that like button and subscribing to the channel.
21:36If you're new for Derek Brown, I'm Seth Wilcock.
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