NFL Week 1 Predictions: Game Picks, X-Factors & Bold Fantasy Football Calls (Ep. 2181)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
54 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 10, 2026
Published
Thu, September 10, 2026
30
Player insights
28
Players mentioned
Topics
Jonathan TaylorKyler MurrayBijan RobinsonBryce LanceChase BrownChris GodwinChris OlaveColston LovelandDalton KincaidDerrick HenryEmeka EgbukaJ.K. DobbinsJayden DanielsJonah Coleman
Player analysis
Player insights
Bijan Robinson
PositiveUsage8:38
Bijan Robinson is expected to be heavily involved in the passing game, with the source recommending the over on his reception lines (6.5 to 8.5) due to the Falcons' reliance on check-downs.
Insight pageBryce Lance
PositiveSleeper32:21
Bryce Lance is a potential deep-threat sleeper for the Saints, with the source suggesting bettors look at the over on his longest reception prop in the matchup against Detroit.
Insight pageChase Brown
NegativeUsage22:08
Chase Brown is identified as an X-factor for the Bengals, though he faces a difficult matchup against a stout Buccaneers run defense that allowed the third-fewest rushing yards in 2024.
Insight pageChris Godwin
PositiveUsage17:05
Chris Godwin is expected to have a productive Week 1, as he is healthy and returning to a full-time slot role where he has historically been most effective.
Insight pageChris Olave
PositiveMatchup30:02
Chris Olave is expected to 'feast' against the Lions, whose secondary is significantly depleted by injuries to key players like Kirby Joseph and Brian Branch.
Insight pageColston Loveland
PositiveBreakout50:11
Alfredo identifies Colson Loveland as a player everyone is hoping for a big breakout from in the Bears' offense.
Insight pageDalton Kincaid
PositiveUsage29:16
Dalton Kincaid is highlighted as an X-factor who needs to play big against a tough Texans defense; the source is specifically monitoring his route share to see if he hits 60-70% out of the gate.
Insight pageDerrick Henry
NegativeUsage22:02
Derrick Henry historically starts slow, often accumulating low yardage on his first 10 carries before exploding in the second half; it remains to be seen if new offensive play-caller Todd Monken will stick with this usage pattern or abandon the run if it fails early.
Insight pageEmeka Egbuka
NegativeMatchup41:11
D-Bro predicts Emeka Egbuka will struggle in Week 1 due to a tough shadow matchup against D.J. Turner, who has historically limited top receivers to under 70 yards and minimal touchdowns.
Insight pageJ.K. Dobbins
NegativeRole9:00
J.K. Dobbins is currently the RB1 in Denver and is expected to handle early-down work, though the source notes a likely committee split with Jonah Coleman as the season progresses.
Insight pageJayden Daniels
NegativeUsage48:14
D-Bro expresses significant concern regarding the Commanders' offensive line, suggesting that poor protection could lead to frequent sacks and capsize the team's performance, negatively impacting Jayden Daniels.
Insight pageJonah Coleman
NegativeRole9:58
Jonah Coleman is expected to work into the Denver backfield rotation, likely eating into J.K. Dobbins' early-down carries, though he is not projected to be the primary passing-down back.
Insight pageJonathan Taylor
NegativeProjection23:11
The source predicts Jonathan Taylor is going to have a big day against the Ravens, noting this as a primary concern for betting the under in the Baltimore-Indianapolis matchup.
Insight pagePositiveProjection42:45
Erickson predicts Jonathan Taylor will have a monster game against the Baltimore Ravens, projecting 150+ yards and two touchdowns, citing a simple game plan and historical success against Jesse Minter's defensive schemes.
Insight pageJordan Mason
PositiveUsage38:24
Due to Kyler Murray's tendency to check down, Jordan Mason could be looking at a career-high in receptions within the Vikings' offense this year.
Insight pageJuwan Johnson
PositiveValue30:16
Juwan Johnson is considered an underrated fantasy tight end who should see significant volume against the Lions due to their secondary injuries, making him a strong target for fantasy managers.
Insight pageKenneth Gainwell
PositiveUsage20:20
Kenneth Gainwell is highlighted as an X-factor against Cincinnati, as the Bengals' defense struggled significantly against running backs in the passing game last season (yards per target, YAC, and yards per route run).
Insight pageKenyon Sadiq
NegativeBreakout11:56
Kenyon Sadiq is expected to have a 'slow burn' development path similar to Cole Kmet's early career, with the source expressing concern that the Jets' tight end room could become a crowded, unpredictable rotation.
Insight pageKyler Murray
NegativeProjection36:16
Kyler Murray is expected to struggle against the Packers, with the source noting his inability to access the middle of the field against 'two-high' safety looks and his tendency to become a 'check-down king' in recent years.
Insight pagePositiveRole39:51
The source suggests that Kyler Murray could see a better version of himself if the offense gets him out in space rather than forcing him to be a pocket passer, allowing him to utilize his athleticism and run when necessary.
Insight pageLuther Burden
PositiveBreakout50:11
Alfredo identifies Luther Burden as a player everyone is hoping for a big breakout from in the Bears' offense.
Insight pageMark Andrews
PositiveMatchup23:58
Mark Andrews is expected to have a productive game against the Colts because the Colts' defense has historically struggled against tight ends, allowing the fourth-most yards per target and 12th-most fantasy points per opportunity to the position last year.
Insight pageMarShawn Lloyd
PositiveUsage34:28
Marshawn Lloyd is expected to see a significant increase in playing time, potentially doubling his career total of 10 snaps in his first real NFL game, providing an opportunity to showcase his explosiveness.
Insight pageMason Taylor
PositiveDepth Chart10:37
Mason Taylor has been named the Jets' TE1 over first-round pick Kenyon Sadiq, largely due to his readiness as a blocker and Sadiq's injury-truncated training camp.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveBreakout47:52
The source predicts Parker Washington will go off and have a breakout performance for the Jaguars in Week 1.
Insight pagePatrick Mahomes
NegativeUsage5:20
Patrick Mahomes is expected to start Week 1 despite injury concerns, but fantasy managers should anticipate a 'dink and dunk' approach similar to the last three years; the source suggests betting the under on his rushing props for the early season as he likely won't run much.
Insight pageRashee Rice
NegativeUsage6:40
Rashee Rice remains a primary target for Patrick Mahomes in the Chiefs' short-passing, 'dink and dunk' offensive scheme.
Insight pageRome Odunze
NegativeInjury49:56
Alfredo highlights uncertainty surrounding Rome Odunze's health status and readiness for Week 1, questioning his potential productivity if he plays.
Insight pageTrevor Lawrence
PositiveProjection47:26
D-Bro expects Trevor Lawrence to ball out against the Cleveland Browns, projecting four total touchdowns in a game where the Jaguars are expected to dominate.
Insight pageTua Tagovailoa
NegativeDepth Chart7:05
Tua Tagovailoa is the starting quarterback for the Falcons by default, as the team lacks other options and Michael Penix has been inactive throughout the preseason. The source expresses skepticism about his performance, noting that he might not even be on the roster if Penix were healthy.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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0:23Welcome to the tailgate. I'm Alfredo Brown, joined by Derek Brown and Andrew Erickson.
0:27Boys, we are previewing and giving our predictions for Week 1 of NFL action.
0:31It just feels good. Deeper, I feel kind of like your shirt right now, you know, like when Iron Man lands in Iron Man 2.
0:39He's like, oh, it's good to be back. That's exactly how I feel right now.
0:43Come on. Did you just make an Iron Man reference?
0:46You don't know what this shirt is. What is that shirt then?
0:49Is that not the arc reactor for Iron Man?
0:52No! What the heck is that? It's the Autobot Matrix of Leadership from Transformers.
0:56Oh, dog. I'm not. Okay. I'm not that locked in to Transformers.
1:00My bad. Oh, man. My bad. We just derailed the show right here from the beginning.
1:04Well, Erickson, you had no idea what it was either.
1:07Don't even know. I didn't know Erickson had no clue.
1:10I knew Erickson didn't have a clue. No, I had no idea to know it was Iron Man, didn't know it was Transformers.
1:17No idea. Not a clue. We got off to an awesome start.
1:21Good Lord. I feel like we're just like, we stumbled out the blocks, boys.
1:25That's fine though. That's fine. That's what we're here to do.
1:28It's been a long buildup. Again, this is a weird week.
1:31Monday was Labor Day. There was football on Wednesday and it wasn't because of some holiday or COVID implication that it was
1:38actually supposed to be scheduled for a Wednesday night football game, which we're recording.
1:42When you listen to this, it's after that game.
1:44So hopefully my Patriots pulled it through, got the dub.
1:47But yeah, the first game of the NFL season is in a foreign country on a Wednesday.
1:52Everything feels wrong. I don't even have words. I mean, eventually we're going to get to the point of the NFL schedule
1:59where there's a game every single day of the week.
2:02An international game every single week too. It's going to be crazy.
2:05And then we're going to be playing on the moon.
2:08Oh. There'll be a team in Antarctica. It's going to be, it's going to be fantastic, man.
2:13DK Metcalf's going to sign a mega deal with that team that plays in Antarctica.
2:17Did you guys see that? The conspiracy theory? Is there a candy factory they're building there too?
2:22No, Metcalfe believes that there is like a, a civilization like this city in Antarctica.
2:27He's been, he's been hanging out with Aaron Rodgers a lot.
2:30Is that a real thing? Is he a flat earther too?
2:33I don't know. I don't know. What is Roger's stance on that?
2:37Cause I think Metcalfe has just been. Where do the flat earthers even think Antarctica is?
2:41Where is it on the flat map? This is, this is, I'm guessing that it's not real.
2:46This is, okay. We have gone way too far off the move.
2:50Oh my lord, this is real. Yes. Believes Antarctica, another world hiding a secret civilization beneath the.
2:55Stalking. This is the trending news and notes. I'm in real time.
2:58I'm learning the. I'm learning the. Let us know in the comments.
3:02Do you think Antarctica is hiding a secret civilization below ground?
3:05What is it dude? Who snuck acid in his candy bro?
3:08Find out. Stay tuned. That's horrible. That's actually where all the Skittles come from.
3:12Oh my gosh. Oh my gosh dude. Oh, all right.
3:15Let's take a look at some of the, you know, somewhat more meaningful NFL news here.
3:20Boys right now, the headline that keeps coming out of Kansas City is that Patrick Holmes most likely to start week one.
3:26Well, let's just take that as yes, he is.
3:29Is there any concern here for you guys with the injuries that he's been, you know, recovering from and are we expecting a slow start in Kansas City?
3:37Is does this headline mean anything to you, D bro?
3:40No, he's going to play. And I think that we could see like, you know, people want to be attacking like the rushing unders for his props.
3:48I think that's definitely a good look on this for the first few weeks of the season.
3:53I don't think he's going to be running a ton, but outside of that, what is the chiefs offense been over the last few years?
4:00Dink and dunk Patrick Holmes like runs around in a circle for like five minutes and then throws a three yard drag route to Rasheed Rice.
4:08I mean, outside of the running, I think the offense is probably just going to stay very similar.
4:13Probably going to get the same thing. They're not going to have their starting left tackle in this game.
4:19Yeah, exactly. So it's going to be a lot of dink and dunk like it has been the last like three years.
4:25Speaking of dink and dunk Erickson to Tua Tagovailoa named the starting quarterback for the Atlanta Falcons.
4:30It's kind of like getting a perfect attendance for something that you're required to go to.
4:35Like he's just the only quarterback that's there right now, really.
4:38And Michael Penix has been inactive throughout the entire preseason.
4:41He's still currently inactive to a tug of Iloa being starting quarterback Falcons.
4:45How you feeling? I was listening that two of my not be on this roster if Michael Penix wasn't injured.
4:51So that's where we're at with how the Falcons feel confidence wise about to how he played during the preseason.
4:57The fact that his blindside blocker is a guy who's already off sides and has already false started twice.
5:02And that's going to be problematic against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
5:05T.J. Watt and that pass rush hostile environment. This is a bad look for the Atlanta Falcons.
5:10I'm all over the Steelers winning this game at home against the Atlanta Falcons, despite all the talent they have on the offensive side of the football.
5:18B.J. Robinson is going to be peppered, peppered with targets alt those reception lines, six and a half, seven and a half, eight and a half.
5:26I want the overs on all of the B.J.
5:28because it's going to be to your point, Alfredo.
5:31Check down season. Check down season. That is how they pronounce it.
5:34Yes. We'll go to Denver. All right. I know we already talked about Kansas City versus Denver game this week.
5:40J.K. Dobbins still reportedly the RV one in Denver.
5:43D bro. Is that sort of a for now?
5:46Or is this just kind of a little bit of pomp and circumstance putting him at the head of the depth chart?
5:52But really, it's just a big split. I mean, I think it's probably going to be a big split, but like I
5:58think Jonah Coleman, it's going to take himself time to work into this split.
6:02I still think J.K. Dobbins is going to be the preferred early down guy until he's hurt.
6:07I know he's come out and said a lot of things, you know, about staying healthy and stuff.
6:13I'd love to see it. I would love to see it.
6:16But at this point, I mean, we have questions if it can actually happen.
6:20But I think Dobbins will stay the early down guy.
6:23I think Archie Harvey is going to be the preferred passing down back.
6:27When Coleman gets on the field and I do think that happens, he's going to have to eat into the early down stuff for Dobbins.
6:34I don't think he's going to be the passing down option.
6:37Last little bit of news here. Mason Taylor, a name that we rarely ever talk about on the fantasy side, has been
6:44labeled the Jets tight end one over top 15 pick Kenyon Sadiq from the NFL draft this year in round one.
6:50Now, like this isn't all that surprising because Mason Taylor is just a guy who's ready to play.
6:55He blocks well. And Kenyon Sadiq missed a lot of time in camp with injury.
7:00So, Erickson, do you see this as something again, death chart wise where there's kind of like the rookie will earn his
7:06spot and eventually we'll just see him there more?
7:09Or is this one of these things where we're also just looking at the death chart and saying like it doesn't really matter who's number one.
7:16They're both going to play plenty. I think they'll both probably play plenty, but I think it's going to be more of a slow burn for Sadiq.
7:24I compare it to last year with Colson Loveland and Cole Komet, where it took a long time for Loveland to really
7:31get the reps with the starters playing a full time role in the offense.
7:35It wasn't until about midway through the season that Komet missed a game.
7:39And then Colson Loveland had a monster performance against Cincinnati Bengals.
7:42And then he was off to the races. And Loveland also was dealing with an injury last year as well entering the season.
7:48So his preparation to the year was kind of truncated, similar to Sadiq.
7:52So I would follow where we could see a similar path, I think, for the Jets tight end.
7:58I'm going to go a little more pessimistic here.
8:00I kind of worry Sadiq is going to go the route of Terrence Ferguson and the Jets tight end room could just become a rotating cat.
8:08Like I think Jeremy Rucker probably also gets into the mix here.
8:11So you think he's getting Elijah Royo here? Could be.
8:14Yeah, I definitely think. But he's a first round pick, though.
8:17Yeah, like those guys get more opportunities early. And he missed all of rookie camp and he missed all of training camp.
8:24OK, under over 11 catches for Kenyon Sadiq this year, because that was Terrence Ferguson's.
8:28That's how many catches Terrence Ferguson had. I was like, that's a hell of a line to draw Terrence.
8:34I think it's well over the over. So but that's not saying anything.
8:38Erickson just proved his point deep, bro. You look foolish now.
8:41Egg on your face. All right, we're going to hop into all the games that matter.
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9:47All right, guys, the games that matter most this week and week one, it's hard to say because like, you know, we're
9:54not at the point where everything's a must win game.
9:57But there's I think some of these games that are going to really set the tone for the season.
10:02So let's start off with the first one here that I think is so interesting.
10:07Cincinnati Bengals versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. What we want to do here is look at a player or a facet of
10:13the game that's going to be the biggest X factor.
10:16And then just give a general prediction of how we think this game is going to go.
10:21So, Eric, why don't you lead us off here with the Tampa Bay since you?
10:25I'm going to go with my X factor being Chris Godwin, who might be the healthiest wide receiver on the Buccaneers currently.
10:32Agbuka has been dealing with some turf toe injury.
10:34And if you ask Todd Bowles, he might as well not have a foot because Todd Bowles has no idea what's going
10:41on with any of his players next year. Who knows in terms of how healthy they are?
10:46He's just hoping that they show up on game day and he's like, all right, sweet.
10:51We can play this guy this week. So I think Godwin has mostly been healthy this offseason.
10:56He's going back to a full time role in the slot, which is where he's been his most productive throughout his NFL career.
11:02And people forget. But the last game that we saw Chris Godwin play, he balled out.
11:07He looked really healthy, looked good. So I think that given DJ Turner, the lockdown quarterback Cincinnati Bengals, probably not going to
11:13cover Godwin much if he's operating from the slot.
11:16So I think that Baker Mayfield is going to feature Godwin a ton in this matchup, which should be pretty high scoring.
11:23I like I don't want to bet the over, but I think that this will probably be near 50 points total.
11:29It's just the Bengals are always a wild card when it comes to how fast they start on offense.
11:34They have been playing their guys more in the preseason, but they've traditionally been the week one turd every single year with Joe Burrow where they come out.
11:42Don't do anything on offense and they complain about, well, we should have played our guys more in the preseason.
11:48So we'll see what things shake out. Usually it's because in week one they play the Browns and the Browns just always
11:55have the Bengals number in week one at Cleveland.
11:57A couple of years ago, the Bengals lost to my New England Patriots in a big upset.
12:02So they can't be trusted in week one most years.
12:05So I think there's going to be points, though.
12:08And I think Chris Godwin is going to have a very productive fantasy outing.
12:12Dero, who's your X factor in this game and who do you think wins it?
12:16I love the Godwin call of Erickson. Didn't go that direction.
12:20I was going to go that direction. But I'll go with Kenneth Gainwell for all the improvements that Cincinnati Bengals made this
12:26offseason with their D line, with the back end, their safeties.
12:29Their linebackers are still horrible. They still suck. They're still improving.
12:32And I think that Kenneth Gainwell, like, like, and I'm going to allude to more Emeka Ibuka talk later in the show.
12:39But I think Emeka is heading for a tough day.
12:42I think Godwin is going to eat. But also you got to have somebody else step up in the passing game.
12:48And I think that's going to be Kenneth Gainwell because they didn't improve the linebackers.
12:52And this is a Cincinnati defense that quietly gave the six most yards per target, second most yak per reception and third
12:59most yards per route run to running backs last year.
13:02So I think Kenneth Gainwell is a player that's going to factor in early and often.
13:06Well, boys, I who'd you say is going to win here?
13:10Oh, Bucks or I didn't give up. I do.
13:12I have to give a winner. I can give a winner.
13:16Let's let's let's wait. Let's wait. Let's wait one second.
13:18I'll do I'll do my X factor and then we'll all pick our winners.
13:23We'll go across the board. This is the end, everyone.
13:25Yeah, yeah. We'll tack him on it. Yeah. My X factor for this one's going to be Chase Brown.
13:31This is going up against a tough Bucks run defense.
13:34Fifth fewest rushing yards last season. Third fewest in 2024.
13:37And Erickson, like you mentioned, man, the Bengals just get off to a slow start every single year.
13:42And the Bucks secondary has been improving over the years.
13:45But obviously, I mean, the offense is still going to run through Joe Burrow and that passing attack.
13:50But if we see the same kind of slow start that Chase Brown had last year for the Bengals, it stunts the
13:57offense just enough where it's like, OK, defense is no.
14:00There's really nothing else you can do except for, you know, keep playing like you're a 14 year old kid playing Madden
14:06and just throw the ball every single play. So that that's going to be my X factor on the Bengals side.
14:12Let's do predictions here. Who ends up winning this Cincy or Tampa Bay?
14:16Erickson, we'll start with you. Bucks cover, but the Cincinnati Bengals win it.
14:20I would have actually gotten Bucks with the full upset had Baker Mayfield not signed a brand new contract because he's not
14:26as pissed off if he has the contract. He got the back.
14:30You think he's so petty? He's still pissed. Come on.
14:33He's still pissed. He's not the same. Now he's petty and rich.
14:36But I want maximum petty. He's Richard Mayfield. I want him without a contract.
14:40I want him disrespected by every NFL team. Why didn't anybody sign me?
14:44But he signed the deal. So don't feel as good about him.
14:48So I'll say they cover, though. But the Bengals.
14:50Oh, so hold up. You don't think that he's not hearing some of the chatter about people saying that he's overpaid?
14:57Is that what he's spinning? And now he's over.
14:59I mean, come on, dude. Professional athletes have to look at it some way.
15:03There has to be some kind of bulletin board.
15:06Not happening. You know, I get a new contract.
15:09Now people are mad that I got too much money.
15:11Baker Mayfield is that meme of the guy pointing in the mirror.
15:15He did this his entire career. That's valid. Bucks cover.
15:18Yeah. Bucks cover. Plus three and a half. Block.
15:21Baker Mayfield is that meme of the dude pointing in the mirrors.
15:24You get in there. You make this about you.
15:27Just every single time. D-Bro, who wins this one?
15:29What's your prediction? I'll go Bengals. I think it's going to be a high-scoring affair.
15:34But I do think the improvements that the Bengals have made on defense make Baker's life tough enough.
15:39And Emeka Ibuka having a down game to where I think it's the difference.
15:43I'm going the exact opposite of you guys on everything here.
15:46I'm going Bucks win. And the game itself hits the under.
15:50Oh. Okay. I know this is projected to be the big shootout since he has lost.
15:54Oh, there's a few. There's a few. Yeah, yeah.
15:57I know. But obviously, we've got New Orleans and Detroit.
16:00But since he's lost three of their last four openers here, their only win was by one point to Cleveland last year.
16:06And they've hit the under in all four of their last week one opening games as a total.
16:12I know this is a better matchup and it looks good on paper.
16:15I just don't know that since he gets the monkey off their back in this one, man.
16:20The Bengals just continue to struggle week one. There's no rhyme or reason to it.
16:25I'm just going with the continuous trend of the Bengals don't know how to start off their season.
16:30That's fair. All right. Let's go to the other one.
16:33The other shootout or potential shootout here. New Orleans Saints versus the Detroit Lions.
16:37Debra, let's start with you this time. Who's your X factor in this game?
16:41Tyler Shuck, dude. He's got to come ball out.
16:44He's got to be willing to sit here and grip and rip.
16:47And he's got to be willing to put up points on the board.
16:51And play with some of the out of structure playmaking that we saw to close last season.
16:56If he's going, if the Saints have any realistic chance of winning this game, and I'll just go ahead and spoil this.
17:02I think the Lions do win this game. Then Shuck is going to have to play one hell of a game because
17:09the Lions are going to come out. They're going to put up points, man.
17:13I fully believe that. So I think Tyler Shuck walking away with having like he's going to have to play extremely well.
17:19If Jordan Tyson was healthy and playing this game, I might actually take the Saints to upset.
17:24But I'm not going to go there. Erickson. All the points that you could possibly imagine in Detroit, board field, the course field of the NFL.
17:32I love taking unders, but never in Detroit. You'll never catch me betting a player prop under or a game total under.
17:38And the fact that it's under 15 and a half points is all the reason I need to slam you over.
17:45Last 23 home games for the Lions, 16 have gone over the total.
17:4816. Last 34 home games for the Lions have averaged over 55 points total.
17:5371% of those games have gone for at least 51 points.
17:56So the trends are strong. This field, especially when you look at the Lions secondary and how it's so eviscerated from injuries
18:02from last year where Kirby Joseph, he's not going to play.
18:05Brian Branch, he's not going to play. Rocky Asin, DJ Reed, older cornerbacks are going to be starting for the Detroit Lions.
18:12And I think that means Chris Alave is going to just absolutely feast.
18:16And my X factor for this matchup is Juwan Johnson.
18:19The most underrated fantasy tight end in all the land could have gotten with your last pick.
18:24And I was always really mad when I didn't get him.
18:27Someone else would always pick him in round 14 ahead of me because I was waiting for round 15.
18:32I'd be like, man, that's a really good pick.
18:35Good on you. Picking Juwan Johnson. So he was third in receiving yards among all tight ends last season.
18:41And he was going like outside the top 20 tight ends for a lot of draft season.
18:46So he's going to be the number two guy here.
18:48Given the injuries to all the safeties, I think that he's going to also see a ton of volume and be a
18:55big reason why this game goes over the total.
18:58Bro, I was also I was about to challenge you and say, like, no, the total is 50.
19:03But apparently it was at 50 and 50.5 and it's been bet down to 49.5.
19:07I'm like, what are people doing? People slam over.
19:10Yeah. Their money. Everything. Yeah. Amazing. Erickson, you took my guy.
19:13I was going Juwan Johnson here as well. Lions secondary decimated with injuries, man.
19:17No Jordan Tyson. It's just someone's got to step up.
19:20I know we have the possibility of Devon Vele, Bryce Lance, someone else stepping up.
19:24Juwan Johnson seems like the easiest number two target on his team to step up, especially in this game where, I mean,
19:31I think we're all taking the over here. I'm still going Detroit in this one, but I think it's going to be a fun one.
19:38Is everyone Detroit across the board? Yep. Detroit with BW.
19:41I will shout out not like a true X factor, but I do think Bryce Lance could catch a long touchdown in this one.
19:48So bet the over in his longest receiving or longest reception this week.
19:52He said it. He said it with his chest.
19:55His chest that has the matrix of leadership. Yes.
19:57What is it? What is it? What is it?
20:00I think I've heard of it once. Is it Optimus Prime?
20:03Is this from the Transformers movie with Shia LaBeouf?
20:06Is that the one that you're referring to? No.
20:08No. This is from the Transformers movie in the 80s.
20:11The cartoon version. Is it Optimus Prime that tells Shia LaBeouf's character and be like, put it in my chest?
20:17That's the AllSpark. The AllSpark. That's the AllSpark. Yeah.
20:20Totally different things, Erickson. Erickson, don't act like you were too cool to watch Transformers.
20:24I didn't watch the cartoon. It came out when you were like eight.
20:28I was watching Turtles, man. Yeah, because you weren't alive.
20:31I was watching Turtles. I have Transformers tattoos on me, so there's no way I can run from this.
20:36It just doesn't sound cool. The Matrix of Leadership.
20:39No, it doesn't sound. It sounds like the conch.
20:42Say it like that, doesn't it? How else would Optimus Prime say it?
20:46I have the conch. RIP, by the way. RIP Peter Cullen, by the way.
20:50That's right. All right, let's go to our next game here.
20:53Baltimore versus Indy. Ravens versus Colts here, guys. Erickson, let's start with you this time.
20:57Who is your X Factor for this game? My X Factor is the trenches.
21:01Looking at the offensive defensive line matchup for the Ravens offensive line against the Colts defensive line.
21:06Now, I know Pat Fitzmaurice threw some cold water on the dynamic duo of Grover Stewart and DeForest Buckner, but I know they are a little bit older.
21:15So is Derek Henry. He's also not some spring chicken.
21:17He's a little bit older, too. But those guys are healthy, and they significantly improve the Colts run defense when they are
21:24out on the field, and they both should be good to go here.
21:28So I think that them against a interior offensive line for the Baltimore Ravens that has three new starters.
21:33No more Tyler Linderbaum. Big Ione, very excited about him, but it's still his first game in the NFL as a rookie.
21:40And it's going to be a tough matchup, I think, for this interior blocking unit for the Baltimore Ravens versus this Colts defensive front, especially on the road.
21:48Bad offensive lines don't travel. I think it remains to be seen when you look at the Ravens losing Tyler Linderbaum, what
21:54and how well will they protect Lamar Jackson, how much push they'll get up front from a run blocking perspective for Derek Henry to get going?
22:02Because Derek Henry needs his carries. Like, he's a guy that I wish I could go back in time and just bet
22:08the under on all of his first half rushing and then bet the over in the second half because he always seems
22:15to explode in the second half after he has 10 carries for 20 yards and everyone's complaining like, why do they keep giving the ball to Derek Henry?
22:23The run's not working. How the Derek Henry recipe works.
22:26So I'll be interested to see if Declan Doyle will stick with that or if he'll abandon the run if it's not
22:32working as a new offensive play caller and think I got Lamar Jackson, MVP quarterback.
22:37Let's let it sling. Was a flowers. So that's what I'm kind of looking for here from an X factor.
22:43I like the Ravens to win, but I don't really feel good about them covering lane three and a half points on
22:49the road for a rookie head coach. That is a little suspect to me.
22:53I actually like the under of all the plays here.
22:56It's another really high total. I think around 48 and a half, 49 and a half betting against Daniel Jones in his first game back from the Achilles.
23:04The only thing that scares me the most about the under overall is just and this is going to be my player
23:11predictions is Jonathan Taylor is going to have a day.
23:14Oh, oh my. All right. Well, you took my X factor because I was going to do the same thing.
23:20Colts D line versus Ravens O line here. So I'll also love it.
23:23I'll switch around because I'm also feeling the same way with the prediction.
23:27I'll switch around Declan Doyle being the X factor here.
23:30First game as the play caller, you're going to have to give us something special, something unique, something that the opposing defense
23:37will not be ready for because everyone knows Derek Henry is getting his touches right.
23:41Like what else can you do? How well can you move Zay Flowers around this offense to keep Sauce Gardner off him?
23:47Like how well can you implement this new offense where everyone goes, damn, the Ravens might be legit Super Bowl contenders this year.
23:54So Declan Doyle is going to be the X factor for me.
23:58D bro, who's your X factor? I'm going Mark Andrews on this one and I'm not high on Mark Andrews from a
24:04season long perspective, but versus the Colts, the Colts were terrible, horrible against tight ends defending.
24:09And this isn't really just a Colts thing. This is a Lou and a rumo thing.
24:13If you look back through years and years and years of NFL seasons, the Bengals were always got awful at covering tight ends.
24:20The Colts last year, quietly gave up the fourth most yards per target and the 12th most fantasy points per opportunity to the position.
24:27I think Mark Andrews has a good day here.
24:30I can't, I will not speak on or hype him up for a season long bet or anything like that, but I do think he scores a touchdown.
24:38And as far as X factors go, you talked about Zay Flowers.
24:42You talk about concerns with Derek Henry. Mark Andrews is going to get some targets in this game.
24:47They did add Cam Bynum. That's the only thing that I would push back on them being so horrible against Zay.
24:53I mean, he's going to be the green dot play caller for their defense this year.
24:58So I think that he's a pretty big upgrade.
25:00Their linebackers are not good. So I think Andrews can probably beat like CJ Allen and Akeem Davis Gaithers on some routes,
25:07but I'm pretty high on the Cam Bynum sign, especially how important he was to the Vikings defense the last couple of years.
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25:30Shop now at MinkyCouture.com. That's M-I-N-K-Y-C-O-U-T-U-R-E dot com. Minky Couture, the blanket everybody reaches for first.
25:35Hey everyone, it's the Jonas Brothers with the Hey Jonas podcast.
25:38We've been catching up with some great friends, Paul Rudd, Michael Buble, Seth Meyers, Niall Horan, Jake Shane, and making some new
25:45friends while getting into what's really like to have sisters, like Alex and Astrid and Earl.
25:49She likes to control everyone and tell everyone what to do.
25:53Okay, well control is a harsh word. I would say that's a harsh word.
25:57I am more outspoken growing up a lot of the times because she was so quiet.
26:01I would speak for like the both of us.
26:04Now I'm working on like thinking a moment, really knitting, thinking before I speak.
26:08And Joey King. You know if your like mom is yelling at your sibling and even if you're annoyed with your sibling,
26:15you just like won't let that slide. It's like only you can yell at your sibling.
26:19I'm like, you can't do that here. That is not in my house.
26:23You don't want to talk about her like that.
26:26Only I talk about her like that. Plus, we've been taking your calls, listening to your voicemails and giving you advice.
26:32Or at least trying to. So if you've got catching up to do, now's the perfect time.
26:37Listen to Hey Jonas on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
26:42Our town is small taters by most standards, right?
26:44But to the people who grew up here, it's everything.
26:47What happens when a quiet Tennessee town becomes the front line in a battle over the future of America?
26:53Developers with right-wing ties have purchased hundreds of acres of land in the area.
26:57The first thing you see when it pops up is pioneers in Appalachia.
27:01But they weren't just planting houses. We need cities on a shining hill that exemplify and embody the Christian way of life.
27:07Stop right there. Is that normal? A podcast about what happens when a small town becomes the site of a social experiment.
27:14God need men to rule. Great. And decides to fight back.
27:17Do not use my hard work to sell your bull****.
27:20They're not just opposing what's being planned for here.
27:22Our hometown is not a test tube. They feel like they're standing in opposition to an entire administration.
27:28Guess you didn't move in on a bunch of dumb hillbillies now, did you?
27:32Listen to our town on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
27:36He could help just for some context. But again, going back to the Anarumo stuff and the just defensive design stuff.
27:432024 with Anarumo, Bengals gave up the third most receiving yards to tight ends.
27:47The previous year, they gave up the second most.
27:49The year prior to that, and I can keep going down this well as far as we want to.
27:55They were top 12 in receiving yards to tight ends.
27:582021, they gave up the fifth most. So that's a four or five year sample right there.
28:03Like Lute Anarumo's defense is, you got to give production up somewhere, is consistently allowing tight ends to have big days.
28:09I think at least for when you look at the Ravens team too, it's who are you willing to let beat you?
28:15The guy who's probably not going to gash your team for a ton of yards after the catch.
28:21Like you're going to try to shut down Derrick Henry and Zay Flowers as best you can and be like, OK, we'll
28:27give up a couple singles and doubles to Mark Andrews.
28:30But we're not giving up the home runs to Derrick Henry and Zay Flowers.
28:34Is the Mark Andrews like five catches for like 15 yards and a touchdown?
28:38Is that the sound line? Yeah, I mean, look, the Mark Andrews PPR scam could be here.
28:43Five for 25 and a touchdown. That's probably still a tight end one in fantasy.
28:48But I'm with you guys on the under. I think this game, like I was actually kind of surprised.
28:53This feels like a lot of last year's hope and Ravens hope for this total, maybe at 48.
28:58I'm not feeling that I'll take the under and I do think the Ravens win this game.
29:03Yeah, I think Ravens want a close one here with the under.
29:07Let's go a little quicker to these games. We're running behind.
29:10We talked a lot of Transformers today. Bills versus Texans.
29:13Debro kick us off. X factor for this game.
29:16Don Kincaid, baby. Where are you going to attack the Houston Texans defense?
29:19It's a good question. Really good linebackers. Really good corners.
29:22D-line is arguably the best in the NFL. I think Don Kincaid is going to have to play big this game.
29:29He really is. And if I know the Houston Texans add a re-blankenship in the offseason.
29:33So that probably helps here and stuff. But again, we're discussing a Texans defense that really is returning most, if not everybody,
29:40outside of blanket ship, like back to this defense.
29:42And in weeks 12 through 18 last year, they get the seventh most receiving fancy points per game and the 11th most points per opportunity to tight ends.
29:50So I think Kincaid. And again, I really want to see what is his route share look like?
29:56Is he a 60, 70% route share out the gate when maybe he's as healthy as possibly the entire season?
30:02So I think Kincaid is going to have to play up for this one.
30:06That's a guy I originally had as my X factor for this one.
30:09I decided to go the opposite direction, though. I went David Montgomery here.
30:13The Bills have struggled against the run for a minute here.
30:17Dave Montgomery is the new. I mean, I don't want to say new shiny piece for the Houston Texans, but they repaired
30:23the old car and they're going to they're going to give it one last ride here.
30:28It's like Fast and Furious 11. They're just going to do it one more time.
30:32And I think this could actually be a good game for David Montgomery, especially.
30:36I mean, Texans defense got Derek Stangley going up against DJ Moore.
30:40Like you said, like the Bills are going to need Don Kincaid to do something.
30:44They're going to need James Cook to do something.
30:47There's a chance that this Texans defense looks awesome and they can run out the clock pretty well and kind of play
30:53a little keep away here against the Bills. Also, I'm just going to I'm going to go with the Texans.
30:59Is this like Fast and Furious 11? Is this game set on the moon?
31:03Kind of what we're talking about earlier. I mean, like what we're we're didn't hear.
31:07They want to get back to basics. They need it to be about racing.
31:12OK, OK. So on the tough streets of Houston.
31:14Got it. Yes. Actually, I don't know. I don't know how tough the streets of Houston are.
31:19It seems lovely, though. Seems like a great city.
31:22No, I don't. But Josh Allen owed four against the Texans on the road in his career.
31:27Yeah. As I usually go for him. It's not good.
31:30Something I didn't say. Erickson, Erickson, you look like I'm about to make a trade meme.
31:34The way you put the hands like this. Are you doing like Illuminati symbols for me?
31:39Well, he's debating on whether he wants to say what he wants to say or he doesn't.
31:44I was going to go with those players. He was has X factors.
31:48So I'm kind of. I mean, now he's just like it's Josh Allen and CJ Stroud.
31:53I was just going to list off the obvious where it's the Houston, Texas defense against Josh Allen.
31:58Josh Allen turns into Superman. Man, like we all know he's capable of doing is taking over games and the bills will win.
32:05But if it's more of the same recipe where the Houston Texans defense has dominated Josh Allen, I'm not going to say
32:11it because I don't know if that's allowed on these radio waves.
32:15Ryan's with loaned and owned Houston Texans. I think they're just going to win this game.
32:19I don't see why the addition of DJ Moore is going to dramatically change the odds that the Buffalo Bills go on
32:26the road in a hostile environment and beat the Houston Texans when his Texans defense has had Josh Allen's number in multiple stops.
32:32They lost last year against Davis Mills, their backup quarterback.
32:35They were six point dogs at home and the Texans won outright.
32:39I love the way people are just giggling. So I think that the Texans are going to win this game.
32:45And I think that kind of being disrespected again, going back to all that these lines care about is the quarterback.
32:51If Josh Allen wasn't the quarterback, it would be the Texans as favorites.
32:55But because it's Josh Allen, because as we get into some of the other matchups and because it's Mahomes, like those guys just get more points.
33:02And I think that's being disrespectful to how elite.
33:05Honestly, the best way to describe Houston Texans defense, in my opinion, is suffocating.
33:09It just makes offenses not be able to move.
33:12So give me the Texans. Yeah, I mean, when you lose to Captain Turtleneck, it's not a good thing.
33:17Who's Captain Turtleneck? Davis Mills. Davis Mills. I can't even.
33:20I have not heard that before. You've not seen, dude, you have never seen like the graphics and stuff with Davis Mills and his neck.
33:27I mean, it's my. I've seen it. I've seen it.
33:30I've just never called him Captain Turtleneck. You had me.
33:33You had me here guessing first. I guess I guess a real X factor would actually be CJ Stroud, not just playing like total garbage.
33:41Now that he has that, he had a minute to look up some stuff.
33:45I would add CJ Stroud. I think that the I mean, the Bills defense is just much worse than the.
33:51Just say Kayini Fairbairn, you coward. Honestly, it's not a bad call.
33:54Well, it's probably going to be kicker one. I got to adjust my kicker rankings.
33:58This is all to say the Texans do win.
34:01Yes. Yes. All right. Last game on here. Green Bay Packers versus the Minnesota Vikings.
34:05This one, I actually think it may not be the sexiest one of the week, but I think it's the most interesting
34:12because these are two teams that kind of need to figure out what their identity is.
34:17Green Bay with running the football now without Josh Jacobs and the Vikings throwing the football with Kyler Murray technically under center, but in shotgun.
34:24So let's talk about our X factors here. Erickson, kick us off for this one.
34:28It's got to be Marshawn Lloyd. We're going to finally get to see this guy play in a real NFL game, and
34:35he may more than double his career NFL snaps, which is 10.
34:38Two seasons into his NFL career. So we get 20 snaps out of Marshawn Lloyd.
34:43That is a big W for the Marshawn Lloyd stands.
34:46And dude, if he gets 20 snaps, the streets are going to riot.
34:49Why would he not get? Okay. I'm saying at least we write it on.
34:54I just say we write it on. Okay. Because if he just gets just 20 snaps, like this is a.
34:59I mean, the Packers are known for being a very efficient offense.
35:03So maybe they only have 25. Lloyd stands. We write it on.
35:06But also, it's going to have all the opportunity to showcase his expulsiveness.
35:10This drawing Minnesota Vikings is never a easy matchup, but I think that their personnel overall is weaker than it's been in years past.
35:17But Brian Flores always knows how to throw a curveball and make things tough on opposing offenses.
35:22And obviously, these teams are familiar with each other playing in the NFC North twice a year.
35:27I do like the Vikings to win, though. I think that they're playing at home.
35:32And when you look at the Packers, they did not win a single game last year after Micah Parsons went down.
35:38And I think that matters so significantly because when you invest so much into one player and he misses time, especially a
35:44player with an impact like a Micah Parsons. Again, it was twofold last year.
35:48How good was Green Bay with Micah Parsons? How bad was Dallas without Micah Parsons?
35:53Like that matters so significantly. So even though they've made some additions in moves this offseason, knowing that they would be without
35:59Parsons, I got to see it first before I'm going to be betting on the Packers in any way, shape or form
36:06to win games without Parsons in the lineup. All right.
36:08D bro. D bro. X factor. I'll leave this off with I think the Packers win and I think the X factor is Kyler Murray.
36:16And I think he's going to struggle here. And I understand the reasons why with Micah Parsons.
36:21But the counterpoint to that is I don't want to rush Kyler Murray.
36:25I want them to play contain. Like I want to force Kyler Murray to win from the pocket, which he can't do.
36:31And if you're going to the other, I could also have thrown the X factor here to be Jonathan Gannon.
36:37If there is any coach in the entire freaking NFL that has an innate knowledge of what Kyler Murray does well and
36:43what he sucks at, it's Jonathan Gannon. And if you look at Kyler Murray, one, Jonathan Gannon over the last three years
36:50has had the third highest two high rate in the NFL, almost 58% of his snaps.
36:54Kyler Murray over the last two years amongst 31 qualifying passers against too high.
36:5914th lowest yards per attempt, 12th lowest EPA per drop back and 13th lowest highly accurate throw rate.
37:04Kyler cannot access the middle of the field. When you face too high, it's funneling everything down underneath.
37:09He cannot see the middle of the field. If they're going to contain him and not try to get him on as
37:16far as blitz him and rush him and stuff like that, they're going to force him to win from the freaking pocket.
37:22Kyler Murray cannot do that. I think the Packers win.
37:25Yeah, when I charted him and wrote up the profile for Kyler Murray for reception perception, I was just grossed out.
37:31It's not good. Yeah, it's not good. It's just not good.
37:34I don't see the fit there in Minnesota. That's why he was my X factor as well here.
37:40I think that's what everyone wants to see is can he be a starting quarterback?
37:44And I think a lot of a lot of.
37:47We get like these rose colored fantasy football glasses with Kyler Murray.
37:50We're like he runs and then and then well, not us, but I'm saying like the industry as a whole.
37:56It's like he runs and he can be good for fantasy and he can help this person and that person.
38:02And that kind of distorts our view as to whether or not he's actually a good quarterback.
38:07And in this system, too, where he's going to be asked to go under center a lot more, he's going to be
38:13asked to hit throws outside the numbers that he doesn't normally hit and hit end breakers and stuff that he doesn't typically do well.
38:20Kyler's actually become a check down king over the last few years.
38:24Like Jordan Mason might be looking at a career high and catches this year on this Vikings offense.
38:29So I'm deeper. I'm with you, man. Kyler is my X factor in this one.
38:33And I think in a bad way, I think the Packers sneak this one out this week.
38:38I don't want to put us too long on this one, but real fast, just zooming out 100 foot view.
38:44I do think the Vikings offense is going to be massively different.
38:48I think it's not going to be what we've seen in previous KOC offenses.
38:52They have been shrouded. They don't want anybody like videoing or letting any kind of news out.
38:57I think we're going to see a run heavy offense and this is going to look very akin to the final years of Russell Wilson's career.
39:04I think it's going to be very run heavy.
39:07I think it's going to be boot action. I think it's going to be play action drops and deep heaves down the field.
39:14So I think the passing volume is going to drop for Minnesota this year.
39:18Alfredo, do you disagree Erickson? I mean, I can see that happening.
39:21Yeah. It's a function of Kyler can't run KOC's offense the way it's been designed for you.
39:26I guess to me that I also suggest if they're running the ball effectively, then you can do more play action, get
39:33him out in space where he doesn't have to worry about like, oh, I got to see all the offensive linemen and he's on the move.
39:40I think to your point, it's like don't stick him back there and make him be a pocket pat, like get him out in space.
39:48And maybe that's where you're going to see a better version of Kyler Murray where he can use his athleticism a little bit more.
39:55He can run if he wants to. If so, yeah, I agree with that.
39:59All right. We're going to give you guys some player specific predictions.
40:02But before we do that, you all watching and listening have a chance to win a Todd Gurley signed Rams jersey.
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40:48Boys, let's do this. Let's take a look at some player predictions here.
40:52Initially, we were going to do team and players, but we're kind of running behind.
40:56So let's just do like specific players and what kind of prediction we might see because we did a lot of team talk here.
41:03D bro, kick us off with a player that you think might surprise everyone or some sort of a bold prediction you have for week one.
41:11I think Emeka Ibuka is going to massively struggle this week.
41:14And I think everybody that there's going to be an overreaction by the masses and saying, OK, now he's cooked or he's going to have a bad season.
41:22A lot of the toe and all this kind of the kind of stuff.
41:26I think it simply comes down to D.J. Turner is going to take him out of this game, man.
41:32D.J. Turner has proven himself to be one of the best shadow corners in the NFL.
41:37Emeka ran 63.5% of his routes from the perimeter.
41:39I think that number goes up this year. D.J.
41:42Turner was freaking awesome last year. All of these wide receivers from last season, he followed in at least 60% of the routes.
41:49D.K. Metcalf, Justin Jefferson. He followed D.K. twice. Justin Jefferson, Romeo Dobbs, Zay Flowers twice.
41:53And yes, Gabriel Davis is thrown in there just for S&Gs.
41:56All of those wide receivers in that sample, he allowed one receiving touchdown and only Justin Jefferson went over 70 receiving yards in his coverage.
42:04Even if you zoom out, Cincinnati went more single high last year, 57% of their snaps.
42:08When Emeka was at the height of his powers weeks one through five last year, 1.36 yards per route run against single high.
42:15So whether you want to talk about coverage, D.J.
42:18Turner, all of it together, Emeka Buka is not going to have a good game in week one.
42:23I like that one. Well, I mean, I don't like it because I've got him on a lot of my fantasy teams.
42:29So I kind of hate you. And if he has a bad start, put him on the bench.
42:35Coming back and cursing your name. Put him on the bench.
42:38Bench him. Sacko's been. Yeah, I know. He's got the foot.
42:41Bad matchup. Bench. I'm allowed to do that. I'm allowed to do it.
42:45Erickson, player prediction for this week. Jonathan Taylor is going to go nuclear against the Baltimore Ravens.
42:50150 plus yards and two touchdowns. Last year, when the Colts faced Jesse Minner's defense, when he was defensive coordinator of the
42:56Chargers, they gave up a season high 38 points.
42:59It was the most points allowed by the Chargers all season long and came against this Colts offense led by Daniel Jones and Shane Steichen.
43:06Given all the question marks about Daniel Jones coming off of his Achilles, I know the reports have been pretty positive about him.
43:13But we'll see at full speed in live game action how his Achilles actually is doing and where his mobility is at.
43:19And then with the wide receivers who seem like, Alex Pierce, is he going to be 100%?
43:24How effective he's going to be? I know Josh Gadsman in our lineup with some injury stuff.
43:29Keenan Allen, older wide receiver. So I think the Colts keep the simple.
43:33It's like, let's just feed Jonathan Taylor 30 touches and just steamroll this Baltimore Ravens interior defensive line that they're hoping.
43:39They get Matabuke back. He's still not even a lock to play in this game coming off season ending neck surgery last year.
43:46So I think that this is something where Steichen makes the game plan really simple.
43:51And that matchup against Jesse Minner's defense last year, Jonathan Taylor had 16 carries, 94 yards, and not one, not two, but
43:57three touchdowns against the Los Angeles Chargers. So I think that he is in for a big game.
44:02It's why the under does scare me a little bit.
44:05But if it is Jonathan Taylor ball control, maybe that speeds up the clock, keeps Lamar Jackson off the field.
44:11And that's how this game disappoints in the total score.
44:14But I think that Jonathan Taylor is going to have a monster game.
44:18That's the only thing that scares me there is that he is so game script dependent that if they get behind, we
44:24may not see as many carries for him. Because if the Ravens offense comes out shooting from the hip like early on, we'll see.
44:31We'll see, man. I like the insight you gave us to Taylor versus Jesse Minner's defenses in the past.
44:37So it gives me some hope there. Everyone is listening, watching.
44:40If you've been enjoying this show, please make sure you subscribe to the channel here on YouTube or Apple or Spotify or wherever you're enjoying us.
44:48OK, because the tailgate channel is going to bring you episodes all the time.
44:52It's not just our faces and voices that are on here, but a whole crew of great analysts.
44:57They're going to bring you all of the NFL action.
45:00If you're also listening on Apple or Spotify, please take a second to leave a review.
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45:12Gents, let's close this one out here with one thing to watch.
45:16For week one in the NFL. Erickson, you're the only one that didn't put something on the show sheet here yet.
45:22So go for it. You get to go first.
45:25I want to see the surprise. What are you talking about?
45:28You don't have anything. I have an old copy.
45:31Yes, I do. Oh, well, that's because I make a copy so I can.
45:35Oh, interesting. Hey, Alfredo is technically the only person that doesn't have anything in the sheet.
45:39Being called out and then being wrong about what's on the show sheet.
45:43No, no, no, no, sir. Sir, I made this copy an hour before the show.
45:48What were you doing? I was putting my one thing to watch together.
45:51That's exactly what I was doing. I want to watch the Patriots, but they already played, so I can't watch them.
45:58Okay. Let's go to Debro. All right, Debro, you're up.
46:01I'm going to watch the Jacksonville Jaguars offense against the Cleveland Browns.
46:04I like it. Because I think that this is going to be a total blowout.
46:08I don't think this is even going to be close.
46:11I would be happy to lay 14 points with the Jacksonville Jaguars at home.
46:15Because when you look at how well they played at home last year, they had the highest average margin of victory by two touchdowns last season.
46:23You're facing Deshaun Watson behind a banged up offensive line against a top tier run defense.
46:28The Browns are going to be super one-dimensional. It's going to be Deshaun Watson dropping back 40, 45 times and just praying
46:34that he can complete a ball down the field to one of his wide receivers.
46:39So I think the Jaguars defense is going to feast on Deshaun Watson and this Browns offense.
46:44Quinjohn Judkins is going to be a total zero in the run game.
46:47And we saw last year Liam Cohen and Trevor Lawrence not afraid to run up the score on bad teams.
46:53They threw all over the Jets. They killed the Titans twice because they overmatched those two teams.
46:58And we'll get a chance to kind of see how the hierarchy of the receivers and tight ends is in this offense.
47:05And then with the backfield as well, who is seeing the majority of touches?
47:09Who's seeing the red zone usage between Bayshaun and Chris Rodriguez?
47:12I think it's going to be interesting because they're going to be able to do whatever they want.
47:17And it will be interesting to see what Liam Cohen actually decides in the first half of the game.
47:23Okay, who are we going to feature the most on this offense?
47:26So I think Trevor Lawrence is going to ball out.
47:29I think he's going to combine for four touchdowns and they're just going to smoke the Browns.
47:34So I'm looking forward to watching this Jaguars offense.
47:37I'm very invested in them. Jaguars, Trevor Lawrence for MVP.
47:40So if he starts out on fire, I think I'll be feeling really good after watching them on Sunday.
47:45Can I give you a crystal ball prediction of which one of these guys just actually balls out from the receiving court?
47:52No, that's not him. It's all Parker Washington, baby.
47:54He's going to go nuke. He is going to go off.
47:58He is going to go off. Why do you think James Gladstone is trying to get this contract done before week one?
48:04Because the price of the brick after week one is going up, baby.
48:08It's going up. This boy has got to get paid.
48:11D-Bro? Let's hear. What's your one thing to watch in week one?
48:14The commander's offense and more specific, their offensive line.
48:17I'm so concerned about this going against the Eagles.
48:20Like, is this offensive line going to be like, can this team mitigate all of the injuries and the worries about this offensive line?
48:27Can it or is it going to capsize this team from the jump?
48:30And if it's going to be a problem, then that early season schedule for the commanders is going to rear its head.
48:37It's going to be ugly after the Eagles. They get the Cowboys, improved defensive line.
48:41They get the Seahawks. They get the Colts. They get the Giants.
48:45Oh, my Lord. Then they get the 49ers, maybe a small reprieve.
48:48And then the Eagles again. Then the Rams. Then the Giants again.
48:52Then the Bengals. I mean, it's bad, boys. The offensive line cannot hold up.
48:56Jane Daniels? Good luck, sir. I just love that the commander's offensive line turns you into a Southern Belle.
49:01Oh, my stars. Oh, no, again. Start fanning yourself.
49:04Another sack for Katie Daniels. Oh. All hot and bothered here.
49:07Easy. Easy. Family show. Well, see, why don't we get to the person who didn't play anything?
49:12Yeah, what is your... I guess that's... I guess that's good.
49:16Well, thanks for tuning in, guys. I'm staring at him right now.
49:19All right, that's it. Bye, everyone. Enjoy week one.
49:22Is that what we're doing? Is that how you thought it would?
49:25Yeah. I want to see the surprise. Come on.
49:28That's okay. No. No. My one thing to watch for week one is going to be the Bears offense.
49:33There has been so much talk from Ben Johnson about how he wants to break records.
49:38Caleb Williams is now no longer goofy. He's taking things more serious.
49:42And we've seen mustache Caleb. We've seen Caleb not painting his fingernails.
49:45We've seen Caleb at Cubs games where he's fully embracing Chicago.
49:48He's also the Madden cover athlete. I mean, there's just...
49:51Everything has been surrounding Chicago. And now as we're approaching the season, Roma Dunze is having complications?
49:56Health issues? Is he going to be ready to go?
49:59Is he not? If he does go, how good and how productive is he going to be in week one?
50:05And then you've got two players that everyone is expecting or hoping for a big breakout with Colson Loveland and Luther Burden.
50:11I am so curious to see what this offense looks like in week one.
50:16I can't wait. I can't wait to watch this team and see how good it ends up being.
50:21But guys, I know after week one, there's going to be a ton of overreaction, especially in the fantasy football area.
50:27I tweeted this out a couple of days ago.
50:30It's like you go back and look at all the players who were at the top of fantasy production in week one and then like towards the bottom.
50:38And a bunch of them were guys that either they were at the top and they ended up being terrible later on
50:44throughout the year or they were near the bottom and ended up being great.
50:48So like, can we please just not overreact to week one?
50:52I think it's a Travis Fulgham tweet. I think the way that you're describing it, Alfredo, is to just zig while others zag.
50:58So whoever gets buried after week one, you buy and whoever we go way too far out on one side of the ledge on you sell.
51:06That's the move. You want to you want to hear it?
51:09I tweeted this out yesterday. Please last year after week one, Drake May was the quarterback 18 in fantasy.
51:15Jameer Gibbs was running back 36. George Pickens was wide receiver 65.
51:18And Trey McBride was the tight end 17. Anyone who was able to like make some sort of move after a week one, the guys just don't panic.
51:26Don't panic. I know we're talking. Wait, who are the good guys that we should have sold, though?
51:32Do you have that? You have that list? Don't.
51:34All right. For next prep. I was too busy.
51:37I was too busy. I was too busy writing Bears offense on my side of the show sheet.
51:42Yeah, yeah. It took him a long time. So.
51:45All right, guys. Before we head out here, please, if you have not already, make sure you check out the Betting Pros
51:51podcast for the best NFL bets during each of those weeks here in the season for, I mean, for all the top bets.
51:58Guys, you guys put your NFL bets there on the Betting Pros podcast?
52:02Yeah, me and Debra went head to head on a certain rookie running back prop in the Patriots Seahawks game.
52:08And only one of us was right. We'll see.
52:10Sick. We'll see. I mean, that's kind of how it goes, right?
52:14One of you is typically going to be right if you get a push or a guy gets injured or scratched.
52:20I heard that. Yeah. I'll get so much more out of this by taking Erickson down.
52:25All right. I think that's going to do it for us here.
52:28As always, I want to thank everybody for watching and listening all the way through to the tailgate for myself, for Debo, for Erickson.
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53:00More specifically, Black literature. I'm Jacqueline Peace Thomas and on this season of the Black Lit Podcast, we're outside asking why.
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53:12And when you look at a lot of different cultures, they're like, you need to know where you came from.
53:18And considering this is Black Reading Month, the only real question is, what are you reading next?
53:23Listen to Black Lit from the Black Effect Podcast Network on our iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
53:29The entire draft room groans because you just took the guy they wanted.
53:33There's no better feeling than crushing your fantasy football league.
53:36I'm JJ Zacharyson, host of the award-winning Late Round Podcast.
53:39Before your draft, our players to target and players to avoid episodes tell you exactly who to circle and who to cross off.
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53:52College football will hijack your weekend, ruin your sleep, and break your heart.
53:55And that's why we make the Solid Verbal College Football Show.
53:59I'm Ty Hildenbrandt. He's Dan Rubenstein. Every week, we preview the games that matter and the storylines that are going to ignite your group chat.
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