0:00This is an iHeartPodcasts. Guaranteed Human. Welcome into Fantasy Pros.
0:03This is the Fantasy Football Podcast. Tara Roberts here with Pat Fitzmaurice and Jake Seeley.
0:08And today we are talking 8 fantasy players that fantasy football projections love.
0:12These players are guys that Pat and Jake and quite frankly me too as well because they picked a fantastic group of players.
0:19Spoiler alert on that one. These are players that they think have more favorable fantasy pros projections than their half PPR ADPs might actually suggest.
0:26And they are giving you a very nice variety.
0:29Multiple players here being taken before round one according to a half PPR ADP.
0:33And players being taken in the mid rounds and double digit round players as well.
0:38So we are doing a broad spectrum here in terms of finding value for you guys.
0:43Now Pat, how are you doing? I know this is a big week for us.
0:47We're finally getting actual football. It may not be the actual football that we want, but we're getting it.
0:53How are you doing? I'm doing great. Yeah, we're getting football.
0:56We're getting the pads. And you know, Hard Knocks debuted last night.
1:00First episode with the Seahawks. That was a lot of fun.
1:03So I feel like once Hard Knocks premieres, like you're into training camp now.
1:08We're knee deep. So I'm ready. How about you, Jake?
1:11I'm ready for all the hot takes to change our opinions after one game in the preseason where we saw 15 plays from a player.
1:18That's all that matters, right? Right. I've already seen the Jonathan Brooks RB one season because he is not playing in the Hall of Fame game there.
1:26So we've already got it. The hype is happening here.
1:29But let's go ahead and dive in because we've got a ton of players to cover for you guys.
1:35We'll start off here with Pat's number one player.
1:38It's Josh Jacobs with an ADP of RB 14 overall 21 here.
1:42Pat, talk to us about Josh Jacobs. Yeah, the projections really seem to like him, Tara.
1:46They've got him for 289 carries, 1161 yards, 12 touchdowns, and then another 36 catches for 284 yards and 1.2 touchdowns receiving.
1:53If he's healthy, I do think there's an excellent chance for Jacobs to hit those projections.
1:58And I can't wait to hear what Jake is going to say about this because I think Jake likes more than Josh likes Josh Jacobs more than consensus.
2:06I mean, it was Josh Jacobs being banged up over the second half of the 2025 season that kind of took some of the luster off last year.
2:15Like he was dealing with this bone bruise in his knee and a thigh contusion after landing hard on that infernal turf
2:22and MetLife Stadium in a mid-November game against the Giants.
2:25But look, Jacobs has averaged 18.9 touches a game since coming to Green Bay.
2:29Like Matt LaFleur leans up him hard. He scored 30 touchdowns in 32 regular season games with the Packers, almost won a game.
2:36So I get the projection we have of 13.2 total touchdowns.
2:39Seems spot on if he stays healthy. I mean, he's one of the best inside runners in the league.
2:45Matt LaFleur is a very good run game designer.
2:48I don't love the Packers offensive line. I mean, the newly renamed Zach Baco Bewele, formerly Zach Tom.
2:53He's probably the only above average offensive lineman the Packers have.
2:57But Packers offensive line has always been better than the sum of its parts while Matt LaFleur has been there.
3:03So while I have Josh Jacobs ranked a little lower than this, I can kind of get on board with these projections.
3:09Just a matter of Jacobs staying healthy, which, you know, he can't totally take for granted with a high mileage back in his age 28 season.
3:17But if he can just stay upright, I think he has a good chance to match these projections.
3:23Yeah, you mentioned that offensive line. That is a concern.
3:26Hopefully it works out very well. It's funny. The injury played such a major role last season.
3:31I mean, before the injury, he was literally the safest anytime touchdown bet that you could possibly make there.
3:37Jake, you love Josh Jacobs too? I want to say that my projections love him for some reason, a little bit lower
3:43than I have him in the rankings. But I do love the upside.
3:47I think the real reason that he's ranked where he is and where the ADP is, is because we don't know what's going on off the field.
3:56Even as bad as last year was, he was still top 10 in points per game.
4:01We're talking about somebody that if you look at, of course, his entire career, the only season he hasn't had at least
4:0713 fancy points per game and a half point PPR was that last season with the Raiders.
4:12So if you look at Jacobs, just like Pat said it, being healthy, this offense, even with a questionable offensive line will still be the Packers offense.
4:21He's still going to get the goal line touches.
4:23He's still one of the best at getting into the end zone with those ways, which is why he has double digit
4:30touchdowns half the seasons he's been in the NFL, even went to him with the Raiders.
4:35So I think that we're just looking for the off the field stuff.
4:39Like, don't diminish it at all. But if he plays 17 games, even 15 games, he's going to be in the RB1
4:46conversation just because he's as productive as he is.
4:48Yeah. Touchdowns carry him through three down back there.
4:51Before we move on to our next player here, to Jake's player, just a quick reminder, if you want the chance to
4:58win a Colston Loveland signed Bears jersey, courtesy of our friends at Pristine Auction, then this is your shot right here.
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5:27Now, Jake's next player here is another one that I love here.
5:31Again, guys, I said spoiler alert. This is a great list here.
5:35Emeka Abuka, ADP currently wide receiver 18 with an overall ADP of 41.
5:39Jake, talk to us about Emeka Abuka. The upside of the projections is showing it that he's even higher than ADP is
5:45the fact that he's stepping into the Mike Evans role.
5:48We already saw him last year. And you can look at it two ways.
5:53You can make the argument already that people will make.
5:56I've even brought him up. I did a breakout column for every single position and let off the wide receivers with Abuka,
6:02not surprisingly, and made the same comment that those first six games were without Mike Evans or Chris Guy.
6:08When one of the other were out for all the first six games.
6:12But at the same time, after the downturn, when we all know it happened, he was hurt.
6:17The offensive line was hurt. Baker Mayfield was hurt.
6:20This entire team played the second half of the season.
6:23Well, the entire offense played hurt. So I think we're still looking at Abuka and the ability.
6:28And the comparison I made for him coming out of college was kind of like a Keenan Allen type where some of
6:35the volume might have to offset a little bit of the average depth of target or the potential touchdown upside.
6:41But even so, we're talking about Keenan Allen, who for years was a wide receiver one.
6:46Like that's not a slight on Abuka. It's just the fact of what somebody might think that he was in a Jamar Chase world.
6:53I want to go that far. But to be a Keenan Allen, to be a back end wide receiver one, which is
7:00kind of where the projections have him versus the ADP.
7:03I actually thought this would be more on lockstep.
7:06It seems a lot of people want to get on the Abuka train and I'm there for it.
7:11I have him as a fringe wide receiver one, too, but have him in a lot of leagues so far.
7:17And it seems like I know that you were talking about with Pat and he pinged the audience, so to speak.
7:24And there's a lot of people that seem to be on Abuka.
7:27I'm surprised. Like I said, I would have thought the ADP was higher because it seems everybody loves them.
7:33But somehow the sites are reflecting that yet. Yeah, that's the beauty of it right there.
7:38Everybody is in. It's not rising. Maybe there's a certain point to which it can't rise.
7:43I feel like there's that stigma of what the Bucs offense was last year and Baker Mayfield and knowing that that, you
7:49know, that beautiful 41 touchdown season that he had definitely was an outlier year.
7:54But he can still be productive. Do you have any concerns around what if Chris Godwin stays healthy?
7:59You know, is it possible that he could be the wide receiver one of this offense?
8:04It's an overall fantastic group. I don't think at this point I have Chris Godwin a decent amount of shares, mostly because
8:11he talked about himself saying that, like, this is the first like the first offseason since the injury where he feels like he's getting back to 100 percent.
8:19Wasn't even close to that midseason last year and still didn't feel that at the end of the season.
8:25So Chris Godwin being alongside of him. No, I mean, even let's just even say Chris Godwin was peak Chris Godwin.
8:31This is still an offense that has supported Mike Evans and Chris Godwin before and with Baker Mayfield.
8:37So I'm not concerned at all. There's plenty of offenses out there support two wide receivers even more.
8:42And the Zach Robinson kind of implementation of his offense here would be a third wide receiver is going to be used
8:49anyway with a lot of three wide sets. And we know Cade Otten's basically a non-factor.
8:54So I have zero concerns, really. I think that a healthy Chris Godwin only just helps the offense.
8:59Not that he's the quarterback because Baker is the one with the tide that rises all the ships.
9:05But I think that Godwin would just help the offense click even more with less coverage for Ibuka.
9:10Yeah, that's a great point. Poor Cade Otten there.
9:13No relevancy unless everybody, every receiver goes down apparently there.
9:16So it is good. We are deep there at wide receiver.
9:19Moving on to our next player here. And again, guys, we are doing early round ones right here.
9:25Guys that are being taken before round six, according to our half PPR overall ADP.
9:29And the next player here is Rasheed Rice, ADP wide receiver 11.
9:33Moving on up there as we get a little bit more comfortable with the thought that he will be hopefully on the field for the entire season here.
9:42And overall ADP 29. Pat, talk to us about Rasheed Rice.
9:45Our projections have Rasheed Rice for 99 catches, 1099 yards, 9.7 touchdowns.
9:49That would put him wide receiver 7 in our projections ahead of Justin Jefferson, A.J.
9:53Brown, George Pickens, Nico Collins. There are just so many ways this type of season, these types of numbers could be short circuited with Rasheed Rice.
10:01I mean, let's start with the fact that Rasheed Rice has only played 12 games the last two years due to injuries and suspension.
10:08Recently spent time in jail for violating his probation, which he had received for causing a multi-car crash with injuries because he
10:15was street racing and then fled the scene. But Rasheed Rice then had to recover from a cleanup knee surgery in jail.
10:22And there was footage from training camp of him kind of lumbering around, not exactly looking spry.
10:27And hey, it's early in training camp. I wasn't too worried about that, but nor was it reassuring.
10:32So will Rice stay healthy all year? Will he stay out of trouble all year?
10:37Magic eight ball says reply hazy. We ask again later.
10:40And let's be honest here. The Chiefs offense has kind of sucked in the Rasheed Rice era, at least relative to what
10:47it was in the pre-Rasheed Rice era. In his first five seasons as a starter, Patrick Mahomes averaged just shy of 4,800
10:53yards a season, 38.4 touchdown passes a year, 8.1 yards per attempt.
10:57In the three seasons since Rasheed Rice joined the team, Mahomes has averaged about 1,000 fewer yards per year, hasn't thrown more
11:04than 27 touchdown passes in any season. And he's averaged like 7.1 yards, a full yard fewer per attempt.
11:10I'm not blaming Rasheed Rice for that, like not at all.
11:13But the fact remains that the Chiefs passing game has been much worse with Rasheed Rice as the number one receiver than
11:20it was with Tyreek Hill as the number one receiver.
11:23So maybe Andy Reid looks for new answers. Maybe Xavier Worthy has a bigger role.
11:27Maybe Cyrus Allen turns into something. And maybe some of the screen passes that have been going to Rasheed Rice, and he's
11:34been getting a lot of his catches and yardage on screens.
11:37Maybe some of those screens start going to new edition Kenneth Walker.
11:41So I'm fading the heck out of these Rasheed Rice projections.
11:44I just there's so many ways this could go wrong.
11:47Apologies to the excellent data scientists at Fantasy Pros.
11:50But yeah, I'm not with these projections. You know, it's interesting.
11:53I was looking at Patrick Mahomes last season, obviously.
11:56You know, he got off to an incredible start there without Rasheed Rice.
12:00But it was all driven by the legs there.
12:03The receiving core has been just so underwhelming. I mean, to your point, hopefully they can find something.
12:08And, you know, maybe Xavier Worthy can finally become that deep threat that they've been missing since Tyreek Hill.
12:14Not that he'll ever be Tyreek Hill, but they've got to give something downfield.
12:18Maybe Cyrus Allen, once he comes back from his injury.
12:21But at the end of the day, you know, there has to be something in terms of pushing the ball downfield.
12:28But I want to ask you, you know, is it possible that we could see an uptick in production overall if this
12:34injury from Patrick Mahomes maybe keeps everything a little bit shorter?
12:38And so he continues to have to be forced to keep everything to the lower AD or lower ADOT players, which is, you know, Rasheed Rice.
12:46So, you know, under five yard ADOT there. So could the injury maybe be a factor in helping push these projections up?
12:52Possibly. I mean, maybe he just has to throw more.
12:55You know, and the Chiefs maybe have gotten a little weaker defensively with losing their cornerbacks.
13:00Maybe they have to get into more shootouts. That would certainly help Rasheed Rice.
13:04I think one thing that I'm curious about is like whether the presence of Kenneth Walker can start pulling some of these
13:11defenses out of too high safety looks against the Chiefs.
13:14Because Mahomes has been going against too high safety at a really high rate.
13:18And maybe that helps boost this offense a little bit.
13:21I don't know if it helps boost Rasheed so much as it could maybe help Worthy or some of the vertical threats in this offense.
13:29But interesting thought. Like, I'm really eager to see the Chiefs offense this year.
13:33Jake, where do you have Rasheed Rice ranked? Ranked or projection?
13:37Well, ranked. He's outside of the top 10. And even I think he's not even a wide receiver one for me at the top of my head.
13:45I have my projections pulled up. He checked in as wide receiver 17 in projections.
13:49And it really comes down to, I think, what Tara was alluding to there is that the projections on Fantasy Pros has him almost at 100 receptions.
13:58And I think that's like you see it. He doesn't even have 1,100 yards.
14:02So they're obviously accounting for not a lot downfield.
14:05A shout-out to a friend of ours, Ian Harditz, who tweeted out, I think it was yesterday, the day before.
14:11He's like, every Rasheed Rice, big play reception, air yards, 25-plus downfield.
14:14It was one highlight. So there you go. Just to prove the point here is that Rasheed Rice, this is who we know.
14:21And I think he'd be a little bit different if he was better.
14:25He's not terrible. Let me make that clear. I was just going to say, similar to Tyreek Hill in the day, better after the catch.
14:33That was the thing was Tyreek was over the middle too, but he was also racking up 20 yards after the catch here and there.
14:41So it's not that Rasheed Rice is bad. I just agree a lot with what Fitz is saying, especially because we did
14:47another show and I referenced it and they talked about it.
14:51I know you guys have seen it as well, is that the team is designing the passing game style for Kenneth Walker out of the backfield.
14:58So like Fitz said, maybe some of those targets to Rasheed Rice actually get lost to Kenneth Walker, even if they do stay short.
15:06Jake, talk to us about your next player here.
15:09Ashton Gentty, ADP RB6 overall 10. So we went high here, high here.
15:12We did. And I thought I was going to be the one to throw you the curveball is that like the projections love them, but I don't.
15:21But Fitz knows and that's why he's already smiling because we did another show where we argued ad nauseum about Gentty.
15:27But look, he got the more time on screen, get to talk up Gentty.
15:31I'm going to go the opposite way and talk down Gentty.
15:35Just not a lot. Like if you want to watch the other show too, I agree with a lot of what Fitz was talking about on that show.
15:43So but this really came down to and now mind you, the projections and the ranks have changed since I've put it
15:50because the rank adjusted one spot and the projections want to spot the other direction.
15:54Because I know this because I went through all the projections, all the rankings, and I look for a gap of at least four or more.
16:02Now it's only two, two spots between projections and rankings.
16:05So Gentty's collapsed a little bit, which is interesting because the projections went up and the ranking went down the spot.
16:12I don't know if I have that power, Fitz, is that I pulled a lot of people off Gentty in one day.
16:18But it really comes down to the projections aren't terrible.
16:21The projections are back end RB1. But that was my argument.
16:25That was my argument to Fitz is that I see him more as a back end RB1 than I do as top six, seven.
16:32And he was at six at the time of this.
16:35And the projections, their rankings, the ADP were lower.
16:38I think it was I think it was six and ten, because like I said, it was a four position gap or larger that I was looking for.
16:46And I was more in line with that. And I think that if you look at it or the ADP was six,
16:53the projections ten and the projections still love them.
16:56But the projections pointing out the fact that like that 10 spot is about 14 and a half per game.
17:02It's a decent season. But that fills you in as most seasons as RB10, 11, 12, which is really good because we
17:09just got a terrible season where he was a low end RB2.
17:12And my argument back to Fitz was he would say that he has the upside.
17:17And I'm not saying I'm right and he's wrong, but I'm just bringing up what we talked about on the other show.
17:24As Fitz was saying, he sees the upside of potential top six.
17:27And my pushback was he would need six points per game more than last year.
17:32If you want to tell me three or four and gets into the back end RB1 conversation.
17:37Sure. I have him as a back end RB1.
17:40I have him right there with Saquon Barkley and the rest.
17:43But even the projections are showing that that jump that we're expecting with a better offense, a better offensive line.
17:49I agree with him about the health of the offensive line being a big factor.
17:54The changes in what was one of the most miserable cold offenses we've seen in some time to hoping that Kubiak fixes everything.
18:01And but the quarterback situation is still a question mark and all that kind of stuff that where I say, you know what?
18:0814 points per game. It's a hell of a jump for what we just saw, how bad it was.
18:13That's still not enough to get me to RB6, whereas the ADP agrees with Fitz.
18:18I am actually on the side of the projections on this one, which is lower.
18:23But you know what? Let's debate it out here because we're looking at the projections.
18:27It's very interesting because basically what it's telling us is, hey, we're getting roughly the same receiving volume.
18:33They have been projected for two less touchdowns, 58 receptions, about the same 400 ish yards, about the same.
18:38But the increase here in the projections is we're going to get more carries on the ground, hopefully some closer games, better
18:45coaching, as you said, and a little bit uptick in terms of yardage as well.
18:50But you're right. It's not a dramatic jump in terms of the projections here.
18:54So let's debate it because we got you guys on two sides.
18:57I'm undecided either way here. I have not clicked Ashton Gentry's name thus far because I'm very pro.
19:03You guys know I'm pro HN. I'm pro Barkley.
19:06So it's the same range. You know, Chase Brown, I could click any name there.
19:10And I don't find myself clicking Ashton Gentry a ton there.
19:14So, Pat, what's your argument for him? That the offensive line is going to be so much better.
19:19That it's not going to look like Ashton Gentry.
19:22It's in a Bruce Lee movie every time he gets the ball with guys running at him from every direction behind the line of scrimmage.
19:29And so Tyler Linderbaum, they add the best center arguably in the league.
19:33They get Colton Miller healthy. They get Jackson Powers Johnson healthy again.
19:37They get Clint Kubiak who always seems to design his offenses that, like Matt LaFleur and I was saying earlier with Josh
19:44Jacobs, like some of the offensive line is always better than the parts with Clint Kubiak offense.
19:49So I think that's going to be better. More first downs, fewer three and outs.
19:53These are all going to lead to greater play volume for Ashton Gentry.
19:57There's no one behind him. And I didn't even like Mike Washington very much as a prospect.
20:03I mean, I really think there's nothing behind him and that Gentry and Brock Bowers are going to account for a massive
20:09percentage of the yardage and touchdowns in this offense because wide receiver, that room is also pretty barren with talent.
20:15So I think it's going to be great. I mean, he was a pretty dazzling prospect with a pretty immaculate prospect profile.
20:22I still think he's that guy and I just think the ecosystem is going to be so much better this year.
20:28Yeah. I'm just glad you didn't. I was going to say that he didn't bring up the best shape ever that he put on muscle and slimmed down.
20:37I was surprised you didn't bring that up. It's trying to avoid that sort of training camp as best I can, Jake.
20:44Everyone's in the best shape ever. Even Depot came in looking good.
20:47I'm joking. Well, not really. He didn't. He came in looking better than we thought there.
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22:34All right, moving on to our next group here.
22:37We're going to jump out of the early round players.
22:40I'm going to hit the mid rounds, which honestly, guys, is often the one that people struggle with the most there because
22:46there's such a wide range of outcomes. So we're going to talk about players being taken according to ADP between rounds 6 and 10 here.
22:54And Pat's going to start us off with Rome Odunze.
22:57Wide receiver 28 in ADP. Overall, 64. There is the constant online debate here, Pat, about is it Luther Burden?
23:03Is it Rome Adunze? Where's the hype going? So talk to us about Rome Odunze.
23:08Yeah, Tara. Everyone is trying to read those tea leaves on how the targets are going to be split up in Chicago
23:14among Rome Odunze, Luther Burden, and Colston Loveland. I'm not really sure what to think about it, but our projections seem pretty rosy for Roma Adunze.
23:22You said what was it? Wide receiver 28 ADP?
23:25Yeah, wide receiver 23 in our projections with 63 catches for 980 yards and 8.1 touchdowns.
23:30That puts him ahead in our projections of Lad McConkie, Jalen Waddell, and Luther Burden.
23:34So a couple of weekends ago, I was at the Fantasy Football Expo, and I was talking to Jim Coventry of Roto-Wire.
23:41Jim is a Chicago guy, a Bears fan. I asked him what he thought about the Bears receivers, and Jim correctly pointed
23:48out that Bears head coach Ben Johnson tends to speak his mind, say what he thinks, isn't coy about his feelings.
23:54I mean, Tara, you know Ben Johnson hates Matt LaFleur and the Packers.
23:58He makes no effort to hide it, no real effort to disguise his hatred with fake conviviality.
24:03Talks openly about his disdain for the Packers. Cool, cool.
24:06But Ben Johnson also seems to be pretty honest with the media when he talks about his players, and he has been gushing, just gushing about Luther Burden.
24:15Jim Coventry believes that's a reason to prefer Burden over O'Dunzane Fantasy this season, and I kind of agree with Jim on this.
24:22But our projections do slightly prefer Burden. I'm curious what you guys think about this.
24:26Yeah, it's interesting because I think you can tell by the 63 receptions, nearly 1,000 yards, 8 touchdowns.
24:32You know, projections kind of show there that, again, we think it's coming through.
24:36It's the opposite of Rasheed Rice, right? Whether he's roughly the same productions, about 40 difference in receptions there.
24:42We think it's coming through big plays here. Jake, what side are you on here with Romadunze versus Luther Burden?
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26:41The day we found out that you and the whole crew was at Hit Factory, the mission was to get me to
26:48go to the gate, start freestyling, and see if I could get in the studio.
26:52I'm rapping, and then suddenly I hear a voice.
26:55Hey, open the gate. Let him in. The gate slowly went.
26:58Come, come, come, come, come, come. They all, they're watching this, and they watch me walk into there, and that is a
27:05moment that I will remember for the rest of my life.
27:09Listen, and Laugh But Not Lease with MC Jin on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
27:15I have 20 more fantasy points for the season for Luther Burden in my projections, so I agree that Luther Burden is
27:22the guy, but I think the real, real guy is Colston Loughlin, which we've talked about before.
27:27The real thing here is, I think the difference is, is my projections are almost lockstep with fantasy pros on this one,
27:33but I still have Burden, not significantly. 20 points isn't the biggest gap, but significantly in the ranks where you're talking about
27:40wide receiver like 18, 19, 20 versus wide receiver 30, 31, because I just think that maybe the projections are accounting for
27:47more factors in the passing game than I have, and that's what it is.
27:51And I think there's going to be a lot of funneled in this offense.
27:55I think it's going to be between the big three, Loveland, Burden, and Adunze.
28:00I don't see a lot of the ancillary pieces getting involved here.
28:03I mean, DeAndre Swift out of the backfield, I'm talking about pure pass catchers.
28:08And I think that's, that might be, that's what I'm assuming might be the biggest difference.
28:12But I think that's why I go back to also just, if you really believe that things are going to take off
28:19this year is why you buy Caleb Williams. The risk here was that I think that we all agree Luther Burden, it
28:26seems like a lot of these shows, I say these as the fantasy proto shows are on Luther Burden well ahead of
28:32Roma Dunze because of everything Fitz said, including Ben Johnson speaks about his guys and loves his guys when he's like, tell us the truth.
28:40Um, it's just because the risk is that it feels like it's Colston Loveland end.
28:45And maybe if Luther Burden gets off to a slow start and Adunze looks anything like he did at the beginning of
28:51last year and his foot does actually feel great, like he says it does in the best shape of his life, um,
28:58that there's games where you get those inconsistencies and maybe both of them finishes like a wide receiver, 24, 26 range while
29:05Bert or Loveland continues just to be the guy, the top option at that tight end position.
29:10So I think that's the little bit of the risk here.
29:13Yeah, I think that makes a lot of sense.
29:16Maybe projections are on point here when it comes to Roma Dunze, but maybe underestimating Burden a little bit because yeah, we've got that.
29:23We've got the exit of multiple bodies there. Chicago did a whole bunch of subtraction there as opposed to other teams that
29:30did a whole bunch of addition there. So right.
29:33Targeting funnels down to the big three here, big things for Caleb Williams.
29:37So yeah, that makes a ton of sense there.
29:39But Jake, talk to us about player number three here.
29:4225 in ADP overall 64 there. Yeah. And this is another one where it went up a little bit in the projections
29:49that he actually was behind, I think Laporta at the time of this.
29:53So there was a little bit bigger gap. Um, projections still love him, but the ADP was ahead and I'm more in ADP in this one.
30:01And I think the projection should still arise even with the quarterback situation, because I know we don't know if it's Watson
30:08Sanders, heck Dylan Gabriel is getting talk that he's looking the best at camp in this limited sample.
30:13But I mean, what team is he playing with at that point?
30:17Um, as in the second unit and everything like that.
30:20But the biggest takeaway here is that whether it's conception on who I'm a big fan of and it looks good through
30:26camp, whether it's Judy in a bounce back, whoever, blah, blah, blah.
30:30Zach Jackson, the athletic multiple beat reporters are saying the same thing that look for fan in to lead this team and
30:37targets that he's going to be the one similar to, you know, a Bowers and McBride and not in the fact that
30:43he's going to get 140 targets or that there'll be as efficient of those guys, but that he's the number one.
30:50And they're just trying to figure out who the wide receivers are alongside of them.
30:54So for that case at six to have these projections are not far off from mine.
30:59Mine are a little bit more aggressive because I am accounting for him being the number one target getter, but the touchdowns
31:06aren't that different because no, I don't have a lot of faith in the Browns offense scoring a lot of touchdowns this year.
31:13I wouldn't be surprised if we're talking about 20 on the season as being a high bar in the passing game.
31:19But all that being said is that to get that kind of volume where you're talking about 120 plus targets, and then
31:26you're looking at this is at one of the highest reception leaders at 78.
31:30And those projections, I have them just over 80.
31:33I think I like 81. That's the real appeal about fan.
31:36And if you miss on that top group, the Loveland Bowers McBride, I'm happy so far waiting on fanning because it seems
31:43like people are taking those shots and Laporta bouncing back, Warren being the guy if Daniel Jones is healthy.
31:49And I wait two or three rounds and I just take Harold Fanning.
31:53I think it's very reasonable in the projections. You know, 78 receptions, 100 or 812 yards, five touchdowns, you know, reasonably conservative,
31:59just a little tiny uptick compared to what he did in his rookie season.
32:04And, you know, as we've talked about with multiple other players here, you know, the one thing that Cleveland has going for
32:10them, you know, as they try to figure out what on earth they're doing at quarterback is the fact that they did
32:17actively make moves to upgrade the offensive line. Now, whether or not it will pan out to truly turn it around to
32:24an elite level or just an average level, it has to be better than what the output was last year because that
32:31was literally one of the worst by far in the league there.
32:34So at least they've made those changes. So regardless of who's starting at quarterback, they'll at least be behind a better line to help there.
32:42I do love the potential there for the rookies and both Casey Concepcion and Denzel Boston there.
32:47But at the end of the day, I kind of see them more so as pushing Jerry Judy out the way there eventually.
32:54And again, talking about a core three here of the rookies there and Harold Fanning Jr.
32:59as the strong veteran second year there makes a lot of sense.
33:02Pat, how do you feel about Harold Fanning Jr.?
33:05I'm pretty excited to know that Jake is high on Fanning.
33:09And like, that's the one player Jake and I have done a lot of shows together in the off season.
33:15I don't think Fanning has ever come up on one of those shows.
33:19I didn't know where Jake stood. I've had trouble figuring out how to rank Fanning vis-a-vis Kyle Pitts and Sam Laporta.
33:25And I started with Fanning ahead of those two.
33:28I recently slid him behind those two. Now I think I'm going to move him back ahead.
33:33Like I'm encouraged. What what I what I'm sandwiched.
33:36Do you? Makes you feel any better. I go a little poor.
33:39I go a little poor to Fanning pits. Yeah, I mean, I almost think you could argue those three in sort of any order.
33:47But what appeals to me about Fanning Fanning? Like he might just be so much better than we have come to grips
33:53with in his final college season at Bowling Green.
33:56He leads all FBS patch pass catchers, wide receivers and tight ends with 117 catches and 1555 yards in 13 games.
34:02I mean, he was the Bowling Green offense. Then he comes to the NFL.
34:07No one expecting him to have any sort of rookie or impact.
34:1072 catches for 731 yards and six touchdowns in a lousy offense.
34:14Like this guy might just be a complete super duper star.
34:17And we're not fully grasping that yet. So, yeah, I mean, like the upside case for him, even in this kind of putrid offense is still pretty.
34:25There's a case that, you know, he could be an upper half, upper half TE1, high end TE1.
34:31Makes sense there. I, too, have them kind of sandwiches.
34:34It's a range where you kind of feel good about, you know, multiple tight ends in general, the value that they're getting.
34:41I move them back and forth quite frequently, but it's such a nice range of mid-round tight ends there.
34:46Moving on to our next player here. We're going to jump here to players being taken after round 10.
34:52So we are searching for the double digit round value here, whether or not we believe it in or we're fading it on that one.
35:00Now I want to know what Pat's opinion is on Tyler Shuck here, because looking at these projections, they were they were very fancy projections here.
35:08QB 21 in ADP overall 139 here. Just a note there, real time ADP has him at 165.
35:13I wanted to note that because that was a pretty dramatic difference in terms of what I was looking at.
35:19You can see real time ADP on fantasypros.com as well.
35:22So, Pat, talk to us about Tyler Shuck here.
35:25I think fancy is a great way to describe the projections for Tyler Shuck, Tara.
35:30Almost 4,000 passing yards. He's projected for 3,977, 22.1 touchdown passes, 329 rushing yards, 4.1 TD runs.
35:35So the projections put him at QB 17 ahead of Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Jordan Love.
35:40I've got Shuck at QB 21. He was impressive last year.
35:43Like, he challenged defenses downfield, which is something Spencer Rattler had not been doing for the Saints early in the season.
35:49Shuck fully unlocked Chris Alave, who had gotten off to kind of a sluggish start.
35:54And Shuck adds some rushing value, too. There is a lot to like here.
35:58My concern is that Shuck was not exactly facing a murderer's row of defenses when he was cooking down the stretch last season.
36:05Makes his first start against the Rams in Week 9.
36:08Kind of just meh in that game. 176 passing yards, one touchdown, one interception.
36:12Then the rest of his starts, when he really got it going, were against the Panthers, Falcons, Dolphins, Buccaneers, the Panthers again,
36:19the Jets, the Titans, and the Falcons again. So, no fearsome defenses in any of those last eight starts.
36:25I'm cautiously optimistic about Shuck, but I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a little bit of statistical recoil in his second season.
36:32You know, that's the advantage of the NFC South there.
36:35Those defenses who are unfortunately falling apart there even further with all of the injuries that we have here in training camp,
36:42season-ending injuries there on defense for both the Panthers and the Falcons there, unfortunately.
36:46I won't lie, Pat, I do like Tyler Shuck.
36:49Not that I'm trusting him as my QB1 in one QB, but he's been a fun super flex target for me, especially if that rushing upside continues through.
36:57That's a little fancy part there that I was throwing in.
37:01That's 78 attempts. That's a good little amount there.
37:03So they think he's going to keep running despite the upgraded rush attack here with the addition of Travis Etienne, maybe hopefully
37:10a healthy Alvin Kamara in terms of checkdowns there and then all the added weapons as well.
37:15So, you know, I hear what you're saying, but I am feeling him a little bit, although I will say 4,000 feels pretty optimistic.
37:22But at the end of the day, it is a Kellan Moore run offense, and we do know that he loves to
37:29push pace and chuck the ball there. So perhaps he can get there.
37:33Jake, do you have any pros and cons on Tyler Shuck there?
37:37No, I just think part of it is perception and the fact of how bad it was to start last year to
37:43go from somebody who throws it five yards at a time to somebody who knows how to throw it 20 yards downfield was the biggest thing.
37:51And then Chris Alave's ascension and everything like that is just it was kind of a like I said, his perception of how bad it was.
37:59And then it was actually OK. Like, even to Fisk's point, and I'm not dismissing his point to make this clear, but
38:06even dismissing the fact of the strength of schedule, it was just a better half of the second half of the season
38:13because of how bad the first half was. And then you look at Shuck and his ability, and yeah, he can throw and he can run.
38:20I think the big question is we're talking about somebody who's still in.
38:24Yes, I love the addition of Jordan Tyson as much as anybody, but somebody who didn't throw very many touchdowns at starts.
38:31I think it was 10 and nine had a few games with zero had a few games.
38:36We were struggling to get 200 yards. And I'm not saying he can't make a leap forward in year two.
38:42I just say the leap forward in year two for me gets into that mid QB two conversation with like a Baker Mayfield rebound season hoping to happen.
38:51Kyler Murray with the Vikings because you brought up the other aspect of it.
38:55Yeah, he will run. I think that you're looking at somebody who'll get three, 400 on the ground.
39:01That's why I bring up Baker Mayfield is like two years ago, Baker on the ground.
39:05Do I think he gets 4,000 plus yards and 40 touchdowns?
39:09Absolutely not. I think that there's a good chance that you might see mid three, upper 3,000, like a 37, 3800, like a Caleb Williams.
39:16I think we might see like a Caleb Williams with a little bit more rushing from two years ago, which would put him as a mid QB two.
39:25And maybe we're thinking more about him. Okay, year three can make that jump into.
39:29So QB one territory, maybe, but I just think he's going to be a QB two.
39:34Jake, do you agree with Tara? Like, are you in a super flex draft?
39:39Are you comfortable with Shuck as your QB two or do you want better?
39:43I want better. I want at least so I want at least two top 18s.
39:47It depends if I go super early on a QB.
39:50I want a top 15 with him because I don't want to throw away that advantage.
39:55But my 18th cutoff is actually funny enough. It's Baker Mayfield.
39:59After that, I have like the Jordan, like Jordan Love, Tyler Shuck, I think could have very similar seasons.
40:04And I think that for the value, that's why you take Shuck.
40:08But I wouldn't be super comfortable. If I have Shuck as my two, I'm definitely being one of the six teams that comes out with a third starter.
40:17Yeah. Very interesting on that one. I like that more, more aggressive on quarterback in super flex this season before that cut
40:23off into the kind of later round low end QB twos.
40:27Before we move on to our next player here, today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.
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42:04All right, moving on to our final player here in the double-digit round, Values.
42:08I hope you don't break my heart on this one, Jake.
42:12It is Quentin Johnston here with a wide receiver, 42 ADP overall, 106.
42:16And just a note there again on real-time ADP, that ADP is continuously on the rise there.
42:21Talk to us about Quentin Johnston, Jake. Well, so I'll give you the projections because you've usually been giving them for us.
42:27And I'll give them the fact that it's 53, 755, and 6.
42:31So I'll give you a second line for Quentin Johnston.
42:3451, 735, and 8. That was last year in 14 games.
42:37So you're telling me, and kudos to the projections team, like I do my own, it's a very hard thing to do.
42:44But we're telling them with all the excitement of Mike McDaniel, the all excitement of Justin Herbert behind a healthy offensive line
42:51that everybody keeps going on and on and on about that, like look at how good he was before the offensive line started falling apart.
42:58And all these factors that we love about the Chargers, and we're projecting a full season to be exactly what we just
43:05saw essentially from last year from Quentin Johnston, actually two fewer touchdowns than he had last year.
43:10Look, I know the risk, and I've brought it up before.
43:14I know the risk is Trey Harris shows more in year two.
43:17That Brennan Thompson, who's getting a lot, like Brennan Thompson's a rookie.
43:21That was later in the draft. Like, I don't think he's a threat, but I'm just putting out there, like people think it might be a threat.
43:29Arande Gasson could take off in year two. And I do like Gasson, and then maybe like all these factors mean that
43:36Ladd McConkie is the only one we want, and everybody else is just the sum of the parts.
43:41But the upside potential is that what we've seen from McDaniel before, and I know it's a completely different team and different
43:48offense, but is when you talk about your top two targets in his passing game, and that's potentially Quentin Johnston is the two.
43:55There's risk, but at this point where he's being drafted, he doesn't end up hitting in the first two or three weeks, you drop him.
44:03But where he's going into year four, he's somebody that's a first-round draft pick that we knew had concerns coming out of
44:09college, and then he shows those concerns in the NFL, and everybody's like, ah, I don't want Quentin Johnston.
44:15Well, he was exactly who he thought he was, to use that quote a little bit.
44:20And then he started to show development finally last year, even more than the year before.
44:25Actually, there was some flashes in 2024, too. But he's starting to see that and really made that turn last year to
44:31some consistency on top of it, including his hands.
44:34And now Mike McDaniel is going to help everybody on this team except Quentin Johnston.
44:39I don't buy it. I am in on Quentin Johnston.
44:42I have him higher. I have him over 800 yards.
44:45But I actually have him approaching 900 yards, and I have him approaching nine touchdowns because I have fractions of touchdowns on my projections.
44:52So I think there's a lot of upside where that could even be underscoring what Quentin Johnston does if, and again, this
44:59is an admitted if, he is the clear number two in sitting in like an 18 to 21 target share this year.
45:05I can breathe now. I can breathe because, yes, 100%.
45:09Thank you so much on that one. You know, when I look at the projections, I'm like, yeah, that's a baseline projection
45:15that is very similar to previous years. But we make the excuses when we look at, you know, Ladd McConkie, who, you
45:22know, Quentin Johnson did outperform in terms of fantasy points last season.
45:26When we look at Ladd McConkie, we make the excuse like, hey, what he did last season, that was not him.
45:32That was not on him. Obviously the offense in terms of the system just doesn't benefit the pass game whatsoever.
45:38We know the offensive line was an issue. So we know that Ladd McConkie is better than that.
45:43And he'll put up the numbers that we expect this year, but we don't say that about Quentin Johnston.
45:49We're treating it as if it's going to be the exact same thing, despite the fact that we have upgrades across the board in health and scheme there.
45:58So I am 100% on board with you with that.
46:01And I'm actually going to clip this and use this as my personal Jake Seeley defense for the remainder of the draft
46:08season there as I put out my defense of Quentin Johnson.
46:11So thank you so much. Pat, are you on board with us on this one?
46:15I think I'm getting more on board after hearing you guys talk about him.
46:20I'm loud and opinionated, but Quentin Johnson is, Johnson is strangely one of the guys I don't have a strong opinion on this year.
46:27I've, I've been, I didn't completely abandon him when he had the drop issues and I'm not to the point of being a Quentin Johnston apologist either.
46:35And I do think it's kind of strange that the projections are pretty static with him from last year to this year,
46:42when we've now got the enthusiasm about the Mike McDaniel offense and a offensive line that isn't going to be left the,
46:49letting the pocket crumple on Justin Herbert after two seconds on some of these drop backs.
46:53So there is reason to be excited. I guess the one bit of hesitation I have, like I'm not a hundred percent
47:00sure that Quentin Johnston is better than Trey Harris.
47:03That's my only reservation. That's fair, fair assessment there for sure.
47:06Before we move on to our, our, actually before we close out the show here, um, we have a listener Q and a section here for you guys.
47:15Um, we turned to you, the listeners, Pat asked in discord, which players do you guys think will have much bigger seasons
47:21than their ADP would suggest and outperform their projections.
47:24And y'all hit us with the, with some fantastic answers.
47:27Quite frankly, you hit us with stuff that we have literally already talked about here.
47:32Um, we had responses of Tyler Shuck, Jonathan Brooks, Javante Williams, Emeka Ibuka, of course.
47:36Um, we've already talked about that one there. Um, he was obviously the most popular answer, which is funny because again, we
47:43were talking about the fact that the ADP has not risen to an egregious level.
47:48So we're still getting value on him, despite the fact that everybody and their mother is in on him.
47:53And then the other player mentioned there was Carnell Tate, which I thought was very interesting because I don't feel like this one gets discussed enough here.
48:02Uh, Pat, I'll start off with you here in this list of players that we got from the listeners here.
48:08Again, guys, thank you so much for responding. Um, we, you know, what is your, what's your outlook on these guys?
48:14I, so I'm interested that Ibuka was, uh, named by so many of our discord peeps, uh, as a player.
48:20So maybe that means they think that the projections are too rosy for Ibuka and they regard him as more of a
48:27low end wide receiver too, which is interesting. So maybe we'll have to start talking up Emeka Ibuka even more on this
48:33show to, uh, get people on board. Um, I'm bullish on Jonathan Brooks.
48:37So I'm, I'm cool with any optimistic projections on him.
48:40I do think he's going to pass Chuba Hubbard at some point.
48:44Tyler Shuck talked about Carnell Tate's an interesting one for me.
48:47I just, I worry that maybe Wondell Robinson is the target leader for the Titans this year and not Carnell Tate as so many people are assuming.
48:56And our projections are sort of conservative with his touchdowns only 4.5 for a guy who, uh, was fantastic on deep balls
49:02last year and had some, you know, a lot of, a lot of big plays for the Buckeyes.
49:08Um, but you know, pretty bullish to have Carnell Tate for over 900 yards.
49:12I feel like the yardage might be overly optimistic and the touchdowns a little conservative.
49:17Yeah, that, that one is the interesting one for me, uh, particularly because his ADP is very reasonable.
49:22It comes in that range of guys where you start questioning like, okay, what role are we going to have?
49:28Are they going to bounce back? They've maybe had one or two struggle years there guys that are, you know, maybe a
49:35little bit older dealing with injury issues. So it's a very interesting range once you get to that kind of wide receiver
49:4230 ish, um, plus five or six there. So that one, I agree with you on the fact that Wondell Robinson could very well be a factor here.
49:50It's, I guess it's just a matter of how much do we trust Kim Ward to progress forward?
49:56Because he did look fantastic at the end of the season.
49:59Someone who was deserving of being the overall number one pick there.
50:03How much can Brian Dable get this offense progressing forward here?
50:06So that's also one that I'm watching to see because the projections are aggressive potential rookie of the year there.
50:12So we'll see how that one pans out. Jake, um, what are your thoughts on this list?
50:17Yeah. To talk about Tate, since we're talking about, um, I did an article a few years ago on the athletic of
50:24the hit rate of rookie wide receivers that were taken in round one and within the first year, uh, for them.
50:30And my bar was top 36 overall or in fancy points per game, because you want to account for some of these guys injuries and stuff like that.
50:39And the hit rate was exactly 50%. It was half and half over the past 10 years.
50:44So you look at the first round for this year and you assume that we're going to see two ish, maybe three.
50:51And with Cardinal Tate, it feels like a good spot.
50:54I'm with you guys in the fact that I don't necessarily think Wanda leads, but I think they're close enough, but I
51:00know that Tate will do more on a per reception basis.
51:04Well, I don't want to say a no, but like I would assume given Tate's ability, but there's the risk factor there.
51:10I just said it's a good position to be in, um, which is why I'm kind of okay with this.
51:16My projections are too far off. I do have it for over a thousand yards and six touchdowns.
51:22It really hinges on cam Ward. Uh, but the bigger one here is the kind of skip past it fits, but you did mention it.
51:29Um, I'm assuming the readers are as flabbergasted by Javante Williams as I am as somebody who is just 11th overall 12th
51:36in fantasy points per game at running back. And the projections down ticked them across the board.
51:41And what changed for the Cowboys? Well, a healthy Dak Prescott, we're assuming for a full season as of today, I would
51:48know that's always a risk, but also Jaden blue year two question.
51:52Like what are we doing? Why is Javante Williams getting so much hate down at 18, 18 and running back in projections.
51:58I am at 13, like on the heels of a Marion Hampton, Kenneth Walker, Ashton Jenty.
52:03I will not let the slander for Javante Williams stand.
52:06There we go. I'm glad you did not skip over that one.
52:10You know, perhaps Jaden blue, it's always, you know, sometimes people get, you know, the rookie prospects that they get very attached
52:17to and they want to believe in the hype is going to happen there.
52:21And maybe Jaden blue was one of those guys, but I agree with you.
52:25There's, there's zero logical reason. If anything, maybe we see an improvement as the Cowboys continue to try and retool the offensive
52:32line and hopefully get that defense back on track.
52:35So games are closer. Perhaps they can maybe lean on the ground game a little bit more there, but he feels like such a safe option.
52:42So I do feel that the projections are kind of underselling him there a little bit.
52:47Yes. Safe. I guess my one concern is that he was like objectively pretty bad as a pass catcher last year, like really bad.
52:55And, um, no, he could, uh, he could, uh, he could, uh, he could get better.
52:59He could, I'm saying he doesn't need to. Oh yeah.
53:03Right. He doesn't, he was so good as a runner.
53:06I agree. Although, um, you know, like a little better at, at first, um, tailed off a bit with the efficiency metrics down the stretch.
53:13And I feel like he ran pretty pure with touchdowns last year, but then again, like it's, it's true who is going to challenge him.
53:21I don't think Jaden blue ever cuts into his, at least not his early down workload in what should be a really good offense with an offensive line.
53:29That's good and stable. Not a lot of turnover in that offensive line.
53:33So I see the point. I do think he looks like a pretty safe option at running back.
53:39I just feel like it feels like I'm walking into a trap with Javante Williams for some reason.
53:44Like I wound up with him in a lot of leagues last year, just because he was going so late.
53:50I just, I worry about the, he's not as appealing in the fourth round this year as he was in the eighth round last year.
53:58That's true. No longer a discount. I did have the dumbest amount of Javante Williams shares last season for that exact reason.
54:05Um, passing upside does keep him out of that top five, but you know, still low end RB one very much in the realm of logical outcomes here.
54:13If these projections, if these projections change how you value any of these players, make sure your rankings reflect it and go
54:20to the cheat sheet creator where you can build your custom rankings straight from projections, move projection backed values up your board
54:26and adjust everything for your league settings. And draft strategy is a great tool guys.
54:31You need to take advantage of it and go to fantasypros.com slash sheet or download the fantasy pros app and build your custom cheat sheet today.
54:39That wraps things up for the show. Thank you guys for being here before we head out, make sure that you like
54:46the video and make sure that you are subscribed to the YouTube channel and the podcast as well so that you do
54:52not miss out on any fantasy football content as we go through draft season here and that you were checking out all
54:59the fantasy pros tools to put your fantasy teams in the best position for 2026.
55:04For Pat Fitzmaurice, for Jake Seeley, I'm Tara Roberts.
55:06Thank you for tuning in. We will see you next time.
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