NFL Week 2 Player Props: 10 Best Bets & Touchdown Picks (Ep. 2203)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
47 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 19, 2026
Published
Sat, September 19, 2026
24
Player insights
15
Players mentioned
Topics
Bijan RobinsonBrock PurdyColston LovelandDaniel JonesJeremiyah LoveMike EvansParker WashingtonRashod BatemanDalton SchultzJustin JeffersonMack HollinsMarlin KleinMatthew GoldenT.J. Hockenson
Player analysis
Player insights
Bijan Robinson
PositiveUsage12:02
Bijan Robinson is a high-volume play for the over on 126.5 rushing and receiving yards. He saw a career-high workload in Week 1, touching the ball on 65% of his snaps. He has exceeded this yardage total in four of his last five games and averaged over 127 scrimmage yards against Carolina last season.
Insight pagePositiveValue20:53
Bijan Robinson is highlighted as a strong plus-money play at over 6.5 receptions.
Insight pagePositiveUsage46:39
Bijon Robinson is a target for the over on combined rushing and receiving yards.
Insight pageBrock Purdy
PositiveProjection25:13
Brock Purdy is a five-star projection to go over 19.5 completions. He is operating efficiently underneath with an ADOT under 5 yards and has cleared this number in 7 of his last 12 games.
Insight pageColston Loveland
PositiveUsage38:03
Colston Loveland is a high-upside touchdown bet at +190. He led all Bears pass-catchers in routes run in Week 1 and is expected to see increased red-zone involvement.
Insight pagePositiveValue39:57
Colston Loveland is a strong buyback candidate; the market has not given him enough benefit of the doubt, as his receiving yardage and reception projections remain high despite the current market pricing.
Insight pageDalton Schultz
NegativeBust44:22
Dalton Schultz is expected to be over-ranked and over-steamed in fantasy, leading to a fade for first touchdown bets as the team is likely to favor other tight ends like Marlon Klein, Cade Stover, or Foster Moreau.
Insight pageDaniel Jones
NegativeProjection34:39
Daniel Jones is a five-star under play at 32.5 passing attempts. He has failed to hit this mark in five straight games and has only gone over twice in his last 10 outings.
Insight pageJeremiyah Love
PositiveUsage14:27
Jeremiah Love is a target for the over on 15.5 receiving yards. With the Seahawks expected to stifle the Cardinals' run game, Love is projected to see increased passing-down work. He saw four targets in Week 1 and has shown efficiency as a receiver out of the backfield.
Insight pageJustin Jefferson
PositiveUsage20:51
Justin Jefferson is a high-confidence play for over 6.5 receptions. Last week he commanded a 37.5% target share, 49% air yard share, and a massive 53% first-read share, proving he is the focal point of the offense despite Carson Wentz at quarterback.
Insight pageMack Hollins
PositiveBreakout17:01
Mack Hollins is the preferred target for Drake May in the Patriots' offense, drawing a 15% target share in Week 1. When playing at least a 66% snap share, Hollins has historically delivered, averaging over 60 yards per game. He is expected to exceed 35.5 receiving yards against the Steelers.
Insight pageMarlin Klein
PositiveSleeper44:13
Marlon Klein is an 80-to-1 first touchdown sleeper; with Nico Collins likely out, the team is expected to utilize their talented rookie tight end in the red zone, where he has already received positive feedback.
Insight pageMatthew Golden
PositiveBreakout41:05
Matthew Golden is a sneaky breakout candidate following a 12-target performance where he commanded a 30% first-read share and saw significant red zone usage, making him a strong deep-play bet at +220.
Insight pageMike Evans
PositiveUsage28:50
Mike Evans is a strong target for an alt-line of 5+ receptions (+158). He saw 7 targets last week with a 37.7% first-read share and remains a primary red-zone threat.
Insight pagePositiveUsage40:32
Mike Evans is a prime target for red zone and end zone opportunities, making him a high-value play at plus money; he consistently sees multiple targets in the end zone.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveUsage14:01
Parker Washington saw a 42% air yard share, 26% target share, and 28% first-read percentage in Week 1, hitting his reception prop in the first half alone. Despite a tough matchup, he is a target for the over on 4.5 receptions again, as Trevor Lawrence clearly looks his way.
Insight pagePositiveUsage46:21
Parker Washington is highlighted as an over-receptions play for the upcoming week.
Insight pageRashod Bateman
PositiveRole31:28
Rashad Bateman is the de facto WR1 for the Ravens with Zay Flowers and Jacoby Lane sidelined. He played 96% of routes and 79.7% of snaps in Week 1, and the offensive play-caller has explicitly stated a desire to get him more touches.
Insight pageT.J. Hockenson
PositiveValue20:31
TJ Hockenson at 26.5 yards is considered a solid play, though Parker Washington. It pivoted to Justin Jefferson to chase plus-money value.
Insight pageTerry McLaurin
PositiveProjection36:52
Terry McLaurin is a strong bounce-back candidate to score a touchdown at 2:1 odds against the Cowboys, despite a scoreless Week 1.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Which can mean big savings when it's time for your next Toyota.
0:05So get a great deal today and a great value tomorrow.
0:09ShopToyota.com for more. Toyota, let's go places. What's up friends and welcome into Betting Pros.
0:13This is the Week 2 Prop Show. I'm Chris Welsh.
0:16That is the very, very correct Andrew Erickson. And we're here to talk about our top 10 prop bets for Week 2.
0:22We're going to talk a little touchdowns as well.
0:25Maybe even a little first touchdown. And I think you teased it in the previous episode, but we talked about a little
0:31bit of a rollover counter that we're going to do.
0:34There's so much betting action that we're going to lock into for this episode.
0:38So strap in. We're glad to have you and we're ready to talk props.
0:42And speaking of talking props, Mr. Andrew Erickson, when we pull up the big board here and we look at last week,
0:48following our records weekly and for the whole season, I'm not in love with how I was last week.
0:54It could have been really bad, maybe a paper bag over my head, but I was able to pull out with an under to get to 2-3.
1:01I'm really not happy being 2-3 whatsoever, because I think I've actually come out strong the last couple of years in the
1:08very opening week, but I had an abysmal Sunday only picking up the one with Parker Washington.
1:13It was a plus money play. And then picking up the under on Xavier Worthy.
1:17Oh, but Andrew Erickson held it high for the prop show here on BP, because you dropped a 4-1 bomb on us.
1:23And when we look at the touchdowns, as we can see, you were able to get one of your touchdown calls, which means you've got some positive ROI.
1:31I did not get a touchdown. I was 2-3.
1:34Shame, shame, shame. But Mr. Andrew Erickson, take a nice little victory lap.
1:37It was a very, very good week for you.
1:40Shout out to Tyler Shuck for never giving up and for peppering Juwan Johnson, because as I'm refreshing the game day app
1:46on Fantasy Bros trying to figure out, is Juwan Johnson hurt?
1:50Is this guy not playing? What's happening? It's his birthday.
1:52Why is he not getting peppered with targets? We didn't know it was his birthday, though.
1:57No, we did not know it. We didn't. I didn't find it until afterwards, but if I had known it was his
2:03birthday, I definitely would have talked about it a lot more, and I probably would have bet even more money on Juwan
2:10Johnson going over his receiving yards prop, catching a touchdown.
2:12But ultimately, because the Lions are the gift that keeps on giving, again, fresh off Thursday Night Football where they just got
2:19boat raced by the Buffalo Bills, putting another 40-burger on that defense.
2:22Yeah, I continue to attack the Lions through all pieces, overs, all over the place.
2:27So Juwan Johnson came through. My only fault was believing in my guy Greg Dulcich.
2:31He's the guy that let me down and kept me from a perfect 5-0 week, but beggars can't be choosers, hit the touchdown call.
2:38No first touchdowns for us, but that one's going to be obviously tougher to hit on a week-to-week basis.
2:43But hey, let's get some more dubs. Let's both get into the green in week two, Welsh.
2:48We're going to turn it around. I'm going to turn it around.
2:51You've got to keep up your momentum here. But like I said, we'll have this each week where what our overall season's
2:58looking like, where the week was before. We've got touchdown calls.
3:01We've got all of it. But a fun thing that you decided to do, so this is the tease that we talked
3:07about last week, and it just so happens that the Thursday game kind of rolled in prior to us recording this, is
3:14you had said, and I've got to be honest with you, I just don't remember how much you said it on air.
3:20We had talked about it before. But you wanted to do what had been done in years prior, at least in theory,
3:26where people talked about if you had bet Christian McCaffrey every single game and rolled over your winnings, you'd have X amount of dollars.
3:33Landry Erickson has said, bet. I'm going to do that.
3:36You bet Jameer Gibbs in week one a unit.
3:38Then you took all of that and you rolled it over to this week.
3:42Jameer Gibbs scored in week two. So we now have the official Jameer Gibbs rollover counter with two straight weeks.
3:48My question is, what's the week that's going to tempt you?
3:51It's cute in theory. This is all a fun game, but you get to eight or nine and we're talking serious bucks.
3:58Do you really think it's going to go 17?
4:00What is the week that you think you would be tempted on the cash out as you are putting your money where
4:07your mouth is and you're rolling over Jameer Gibbs week after week?
4:10Yeah, it really is that loaded question, right? Because you think about, man, I'm sitting on all this money already, all these winnings.
4:17Let's cash out now while we are firmly in the green because it's boom or bust, right?
4:21You're taking all the winnings you get every single week and you're putting it back into the Jameer Gibbs piggy bank, hoping
4:28that it's going to continue to grow by week to week basis.
4:31And he's tough because he's like pretty heavy, like minus money, like especially this week it got minus.
4:36So like I think in total, you're only up like a unit or maybe unit in a quarter.
4:42Which is why it's about the frequency that you're doing it every single week.
4:46That's why it's consistent because, you know, when you say, oh, Jameer Gibbs anytime touchdowns, like, yeah, of course, he's going to score a touchdown.
4:53Like just look at the odds, but not everyone's doing this, right?
4:56Not everyone is betting him every single week to score a touchdown.
5:00And if he does, you get money. Sure. Yeah, it is good money.
5:03It's premature. Like we're in the first quarter with about, you know, nine minutes to go, if you will, in this race here.
5:10But once we get to halftime, you know, and you get to like if you were to get there, we could just
5:16all follow along and see if you get to week seven or eight.
5:20When do you think the first temptation will really roll in?
5:23I think it's going to be when you've hit between eight and ten, somewhere in that markers where you're going to be like, this is a cute game.
5:31Maybe I take some out. But I do think, though, like, I mean, imagine if we get to like weeks 14, 15.
5:37We're talking fantasy playoffs. We're talking, dude, it's like it's the fourth quarter.
5:41Jameer Gibbs still hasn't scored a touchdown yet, but this is the fantasy championships.
5:45This is the 15th week in a row he's going to score a touchdown.
5:49Like, just think about the sweat, dude. Like that itself could be a lot of fun.
5:54And so, again, if the people are doing it with us, like we want we want this to be a squad ride,
6:00because I think it could be a lot of fun just following Jameer Gibbs in this journey.
6:05I think that he could put up 30 touchdowns this year, which is kind of the reason behind the thesis was if
6:11he's going to have a Christian McCaffrey level season, then he should be scoring touchdowns every single week and we should take advantage of it.
6:18Well, we got the counter. We're going to keep tracking.
6:21It's two straight weeks and hopefully we can have some fun and continue playing this game for a little bit longer.
6:27But let's get into the meat of the episode, meat and potatoes of the episode, where we are going to go through our top 10 props.
6:35We've got five each you have got to carry over this really fantastic week.
6:39So let's jump into number one on our favorite props for week two.
6:43And why don't you kick it off for us?
6:45It's actually very funny. The two guys we're going to talk about were both like heavily talked about by both of us last week.
6:52So this is kind of a rollover in a sense.
6:55But why don't you talk about the under you are going to start us off with because we have to get an under from you.
7:02Yes, this is my only under on the card this week.
7:05So being generous again, I am a changed man.
7:08Well, it's because of all the points that were scored in week one.
7:11I need to adjust my prior. So Quinchot Judkins running back for the Cleveland Browns is going to go under 49 and a half rushing yards.
7:19So he only hit this number once in his last six road games dating back to his rookie season.
7:24The matchup for him is absolutely terrible against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers boasting an elite run defense because that's the way that Todd Bowles runs his unit.
7:32Per next gen stats, the Buccaneers rush defense under Todd Bowles has conceded a 38.2% success rate against opposing rushers.
7:38That is the lowest rate in the league since Todd Bowles took over as defensive head coach, coordinator, etc.
7:43in 2019. So we know that he's always good against the run.
7:47And Sean Watson, this Cleveland Browns offensive line basically got no push whatsoever against the Jaguars in week one.
7:52So I'm kind of expecting more of the same from Judkins.
7:55Again, last week it was 12 Rick carries for 33 yards.
7:58And some of that came in garbage time where there was already a blow at the games over Jaguars are gonna have their starters in.
8:06Judkins is still out there trying to just pick up some garbage time yardage.
8:10So 25% success rate on his 12 carries in week one against the Jags.
8:14I'm expecting just very similar type of production here.
8:16It's another tough run defense on the road. And I know Fitz talked about it on the prediction show, but you could
8:23see Shader Sanders in this game at some point.
8:25So I think this is another bad spot for the Brownies.
8:28Yeah, if I was doing that primer short that I did like last week, I'd probably join you in it and saying,
8:35Quincy John Judkins is if you've got the luxury to fade, you can get into that space and you're fading at under 49.5.
8:41I am going back to the well also. And this is the prop that hit for me and smashed for me last week.
8:48And we're gonna do it again. If you're gonna give me four and a half and you're gonna give me at least
8:54close to even money or plus money, I'm going to take it until the wheels fall off.
8:59This isn't quite Jameer Gibbs, but Parker Washington is back at four and a half receptions.
9:04And it's like in theoretical even money minus 104.
9:06It was plus money last week. And he smashed this in the first half.
9:10So obviously like that was a tough matchup. This is still a relatively tough coverage matchup.
9:15The Chiefs, I think, you know, by their own regard were the ones that hurt themselves the most.
9:20And how the Denver Broncos like they have like good coverage rates and stuff, but they got absolutely run on.
9:26But Parker Washington last week, we saw a 42% air yard share, a 26% target share.
9:30And we saw a first read percentage of almost 28%.
9:33I mind you just wasn't even used in the second half.
9:36He did all of that. He hit this number in the first half.
9:40I would say like when you looked at the Browns and you looked at the coverage and you looked at like Denzel
9:46Ward, and then you had much worse coverage playing out of the slot.
9:50That was a big thing that played a role into this.
9:53I don't think the Broncos are in that situation.
9:56Obviously, Patrick Sertan, great if he's not covering in the slot, not covering Parker Washington.
10:00The slot corners are a little bit better, but the matchup, especially like looking at like PFF, they love this matchup.
10:06They still think this is a great matchup, especially if he's up against Riley Moss.
10:10But I think Trevor Lawrence showed that he is going to sling the ball to Parker Washington.
10:15He got it in the first half. I think there's another chance we're going to get this in the first half again.
10:22So if you give me four and a half, you know what this reminded me of?
10:26This reminded me of, remember, I was actually reminiscing about it a little bit earlier.
10:30Remember, I think it was like two years ago and even in the last year when it was just like, anytime you
10:37saw Bijan Robinson at like 23.5 receiving yards, you're just like, take smack.
10:40Now it's like 38, 39. I was just reminiscing about the days where you can get mid-20s.
10:45This is going to be that same thing. Like when you gave me that, I was taking it.
10:51When you give me this, I'm going to take Parker Washington over on the receptions.
10:55That's where we're playing. We're back at some good ones, but we got more coming up here.
11:00If you guys are looking for some of your favorite props, go and make sure you find the best NFL prop bets with Betting Pros Prop Cheat Sheet.
11:08You can quickly compare lines from leading sports books against our daily NFL projections to uncover the props offering the most value.
11:14Make smarter prop betting decisions all season long at bettingpros.com slash props.
11:17And I highly suggest you go play around in there because once you've got access, you can check out the five-star ratings.
11:24You can check the projection EVs. They've got projection differentials from the prop to what they're projecting, which I think is a super helpful one.
11:31And then you can see all the different places around you can do it.
11:35So check out the prop cheat sheet. It is one of the most helpful tools, especially if you're just even looking for
11:41not just like the big information regarding it, but you're looking for some small pieces to kind of hone in and lock in your bet.
11:48But it's going to help you out. All right, let's go to prop number two on the card.
11:54We are both going with some running backs. And wouldn't you know it that I didn't even realize this.
11:59Did I manifest Bijan Robinson? Because poof, here he is, Erickson.
12:02It was so fun taking over on a good player last week, Jonathan Taylor.
12:06So I decided to run it back. Yeah, I'm going to just take these elite running backs and just, hey, they're going
12:13to smash when they have these pristine matchups. So Bijan Robinson over 126 and a half rushing and receiving yards.
12:18This is by far the biggest number I've ever put on the prop show in my time here at Betting Pros.
12:24So this is this is a weird territory for me.
12:27But dude, that Carolina Panthers defense, man. Cheeks, buns, whatever you want to say.
12:31They got absolutely truck sticked last week by the Chicago Bears, who almost combined for 300 rushing yards in total.
12:37So I am not just doing rushing yards here, though.
12:40I'm doing yards from scrimmage because we know that Bijan Robinson can inflict damage on opposing defenses in all sorts of ways, both as a rusher and receiver.
12:48And because I have no idea how this game is going to play out, this is a four outcome type of matchup between the Panthers.
12:55I could see the Panthers ball at the Falcons.
12:58I could see the Falcons ball at the Panthers.
13:00It could be a close game. It could be all over the place.
13:04But I do know that no matter what, all paths to the offense lead through Bijan Robinson.
13:09He had a career high in terms of his workload last week.
13:12I think that he got a touch on 65 percent of his snaps played.
13:16And I know the coaches are talking about, yeah, well, we want to balance it out a little bit more.
13:22It's like, well, dude, if you want to score points on offense, then you need to give him the ball as many times as humanly possible.
13:29So I think Bijan coming off a game last week against the Steelers, he went over 130 yards from scrimmage last week.
13:36He's been over 126 and a half rushing and receiving yards in four of his last five games played.
13:41And he actually averaged just over this number, 127 yards from scrimmage in both his games last year against the Carolina Panthers defense.
13:48So I get it's a high number. I get that this can be kind of shaky because it's such a big number for him to hit.
13:55It's going to take the entire game probably. But I think ultimately when push comes to shove, unless he gets banged up
14:01or something like that, I mean, he's going to get his opportunities against this Carolina defense that could not stop the run in week one.
14:09So give me the over on Bijan. Yeah, I like that you did the receiving and the rushing like that.
14:14That combo kind of covers you in a couple spots because, you know, Bijan can go absolutely ballistic in the receiving game.
14:21So I'm with that. That's a fun one. I do not have as much of a fun name, but I have talked
14:27about this throughout the week in my logic of where this is going.
14:31And I'm going to Jeremiah Love and I've been kind of negative about drafting on Jeremiah Love, but we did see him
14:37early on and this is a bad rushing matchup.
14:40So why Jeremiah Love? Because of the receiving end is what we're going to play.
14:44So the Seahawks definitely are going to stuff around.
14:46I got to be honest with you, there might even be some plays on unders on some of the rushing yards.
14:52I've seen the props, especially on Jeremiah Love. But I expect the Seahawks to be able to lock this run game down.
14:59I do not think the Cardinals are going to have the success that they had last week against the Chargers with that Seahawks defense.
15:06So what that is going to end up doing is that's going to put them in a situation where they're going to be passing more.
15:13And we saw Jeremiah Love have some success out of that.
15:16He had, I mean, didn't have a bunch of yards or anything, but he saw four targets in that early snap share.
15:22That's a big positive. His projections on betting pros is in the 19 range.
15:26So this is supported fantasy pros got it in the 19 range as well.
15:30But also you saw eight targets, seven catches and 53 yards out of the backfield against the Seahawks with the Patriots.
15:36That was around seven and a half per catch.
15:39So if Jeremiah Love is going to see that three to four marker again, and he catches two passes might get me
15:45in there, but catching three, we're going to lock this down.
15:48One big play. This is the way that any of these Cardinals running backs are going to make anything out of this.
15:55It's going to be in the passing game and it looks like he's going to be someone they want to get the ball out of.
16:02It's not going to be as much Tyler Algier.
16:04I think you're going to have situations where they're going to want to sling the crap out of it and they're going to have to play check down.
16:12And that's where Jeremiah Love is going to come into play.
16:16Also, you know, I'm very interested to see in more open field, if he can start forcing some more, uh, forcing some
16:22more missed tackles, which he had a couple of those in that first game snap percentages moves up a little bit.
16:28Give me Jeremiah Love receiving yards, 15.5 on the over for my second one.
16:32All right. Number three on this list. This is where I'm actually going to be jumping into my big name.
16:38That's going to make me give a little sigh of relief, but you have been teasing this one over the last couple
16:44of shows that people have been watching. I knew he was going to be on your card and I think you even insinuated it.
16:51So you're going to be digging a little bit into a lower name guy that you're locked into for week three, this wide receiver.
16:58And what prop are you going with? Mack Hollins, Mack money.
17:01Hollins, as I like to call him over a 35 and a half receiving yards, wide receiver, the new wide receiver one
17:07for the New England Patriots, because it's not Romeo Dobbs, despite the fact that the Patriots paid him so much money in free agency.
17:14He just has the trust of Drake May. It was so clear in the Seahawks game in week one when AJ Brown
17:20went down, who Drake May was hoping to get the ball to.
17:24And it was not Romeo Dobbs. It was not Demary Douglas.
17:27It was not Hunter Henry. It was Mack Hollins.
17:30Like that's the guy that was stepping up the biggest point.
17:33He drew four targets after AJ Brown left that game.
17:36That was the most of any, any of the receivers for New England totaled five targets in the game for a 15% target share.
17:42So if you look at just Mack Hollins and what he's done when he's had a full-time role in Sovitz, because he
17:49has really not been a full-time wide receiver for the Patriots for the most time that he's been there.
17:54People don't know this, but he's a 33 year old journeyman wide receiver.
17:58Like he's like not some like younger player. He's been around the NFL for a long time, but he's had a lot of success with Josh McDaniels.
18:06He was with Josh McDaniels with the Las Vegas Raiders alongside Devontae Adams.
18:09And he had some productive years there with McDaniels calling the shot.
18:13So I'm just looking at when he's actually had a full-time role.
18:16So if you look at him last 10 games he's played, he's over 35 and a half receiving arts in seven of those games.
18:23He went over 35 and a half receiving arts in both games last year when Kayshawn Booty was dealing with an injury.
18:30So again, when he's had his snap share and routes increase in the Patriots lineup with Drake May, he has delivered on this number.
18:36Last 10 games when he's captured at least a 66% snap share, which he also hit last week, he has gone over
18:4335 and a half receiving arts eight times, averaging over four catches for 60 receiving arts and 6.4 targets per game.
18:49And all the rumblings out of Patriots practice this week has Matt Collins leading all the Patriots wide receivers and drills.
18:55Every single drill. He's the first guy out there.
18:57So he was given off the Mike Evans number 13 drip when I was at Patriots training camp and I didn't believe it.
19:04That's what my eyes were telling me. I was like, does this guy really look like Mike Evans?
19:09Like he's got like the chrome visor on. He's wearing like these like weird, he like does all of this.
19:15Again, like, you know, the whole Matt Collins, he doesn't wear cleats or whatever.
19:19He doesn't wear shoes. No, it's all the drip without shoes.
19:22And he has a whole social media thing where he does like home hacks, where he's like, you need to know how
19:28to change your water heater and like stuff like that.
19:31Like he's really like interesting guy in character, but he's a good football player too.
19:35So I think he's going to deliver here. I'm not afraid of the Steelers defense.
19:40I know they have a couple of decent corners, Jamal Dean, maybe Joey Porter Jr.
19:44plays in this matchup, but I don't think it's going to matter.
19:47I think Drake May is going to find Matt Collins early and often.
19:51I think that he's going to easily go over 35 and a half receiving yards.
19:56Joey Porter is not playing in this game. Like we've talked about that.
19:59He, I think he even left practice and they said, he like downgraded.
20:03It seemed like he was trending in the right direction.
20:06And he's like, now my back hurts. It's like, Oh my, the contract that I don't have on my back really hurts.
20:12I got to go. It's totally not a state.
20:15It's the most ridiculous thing. He's not playing. I like this one.
20:18All right. I am going, and I want to give you some transparency on this.
20:22I did have another name on this team. So I just want to put it out there when this doesn't hit.
20:28And this other one hits, I'll hate myself for it.
20:31I had, I'm just going to say it. I had TJ Hawkinson, 26.5, but I also have the bad taste in my
20:38mouth of taking all of my crappy players that I love on props and having a bad week last week.
20:43I still think the Hawkinson one is a solid play, but I had to move it because I really like this because it's plus money.
20:51I'm going with Justin Jefferson. So that's my big name.
20:53That's my sigh of relief. You had your, uh, Bijan Robinson because you're getting big plus money at six and a half
21:00receptions, like plus one 20 plus one 21 on six and a half receptions for Justin Jefferson.
21:05Now the reason behind it is obviously going to be a concern around Carson Wentz.
21:09I think they have her in the offense, but I don't think you have to.
21:13That's kind of been my point for this week.
21:16You Erickson, we've talked on so many shows that like the bears defense, not great.
21:20Carson Wentz is a pretty good manager of these pieces.
21:23And what did he do? He did a good job getting the ball to Jefferson last week.
21:28Jefferson saw nine targets last week. He had around a 10, a dot.
21:32Check this out. A 49% air yard share, 37 and a half percent, uh, target share.
21:36And then this is the big one. 53% first read 53% first read.
21:40I say that again, when you go and look at the matchup from the previous week for the bears against the Panthers,
21:46they led eight and nine targets to Ted Aroa and Jalen Coker, the top two wide receivers.
21:51One of those guys went over this, uh, Jalen Coker actually caught a bunch of his passes.
21:56He had eight and McMillan only caught five, but he had eight opportunities on it.
22:00They're going to throw the ball. Justin Jefferson saw the most absurd first read percentage there.
22:05They're taking this down because it is Carson Wentz, but I think Carson Wentz is sneaky.
22:09I had to talk myself out of his passing yards.
22:12I had to talk myself out of his, his touchdown number.
22:15Cause you could do that 1.5 over. I had to talk myself out of TJ Hawkinson.
22:20I'm not going to do it with Justin Jefferson.
22:23I don't think the Vikings are done in this.
22:25We talked about on the tailgate. I think the Vikings are actually live in this game as well, even though they're, they're
22:31plus four and a half, I think was the earliest number, but plus money.
22:36Justin Jefferson after getting a 53% first read share.
22:38Yeah, I think so. I'm going to lock that in six and a half over on the receptions for Mr.
22:44JJ, Justin Jefferson, Jetta. Give me that all day for the plus.
22:47Love me some plus money reception props. All right.
22:50We've each got two more coming up, but let's talk to you about our friends over at Polymarket.
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24:49All right, prop number four for each of us.
24:51This is, oh God, can I count? This is what, seven and eight, I believe, total.
24:56It belongs to the 49ers, because we are straight 49ering it, which I can appreciate right here for good luck, even though
25:02this helmet is not either one of the guys we're going to talk about.
25:06I think ours play a nice correlation here. So why don't you present your 49er bet for the week against the Miami Dolphins?
25:13I'm going with Brock Purdy over 19 and a half completions, and this comes courtesy of the betting pros prop bet cheat sheet.
25:19This is a five-star bet courtesy of the projections.
25:22He has gone over this number, seven of his last 12 games played, four of his last five home games.
25:28Last week against the Rams in week one, he completed 25 passes.
25:31The 49ers ranked third in week one in terms of pass rate over expectation, and it was Brock Purdy doing a lot of his damage underneath.
25:38And anyone that was watching that game, you could see that Purdy was just in full command of the offense, and he
25:45was just finding the open guy, whether it was Mike Evans, moving the chains, Dio Samuel behind the line of scrimmage, Christian McCaffrey out of the backfield.
25:52He was peppering his targets all over the place, but it wasn't a lot of downfield attempts.
25:57His average depth of his throw was under five yards.
26:00So if he continues to kind of operate efficiently underneath, then I think he's going to crush this number against the Miami
26:07Dolphins secondary that you can basically do whatever you want against this defense, right?
26:11They just don't have many good players. Last week, Kirk Cousins, he completed 21 passes on 30 attempts against the Dolphins, and
26:17that was at a 7.8 average depth of target.
26:19So he was even trying to go more downfield, and he was still getting over 21 completions or over 19 and a half completions.
26:26So I'm just trusting the prop bet cheat sheet here.
26:29And there is a scenario, too, where if for some reason the 49ers don't completely just like blow the doors off the
26:35Miami Dolphins because of the time zone thing, I know that's what Seth is telling us on the betting pro.
26:41You know he picked the spoiler. He picked the Dolphins as his upset special.
26:45He picked the Dolphins on the money line. Get out of here.
26:49Really? No, that's what he picked. What is this, the whole West Coast going to the East Coast thing?
26:54No, it's no, because they're playing at home. It's just the whole, like, Australia to the West Coast.
26:59Again, I couldn't get there with the money line, but I'm just saying, like, if the game is not a total blowout,
27:06because the 49ers have been known to be overvalued at home against the spread, they've actually, I'm pretty sure, not covered the
27:12spread in 15 of the last 16 games after a win.
27:15So they have been overrated. So if it's a 10-point game, then at least Brock Purdy, you're assuming, isn't just, like, handing
27:21the ball off to Kalen Black for the entire second half of the game.
27:25And hopefully completing passes to get over this number.
27:28Okay, hold on. Is he taking the Dolphins straight up, or is he taking the spread?
27:33His pick was Dolphins money line. Oh, my God.
27:35Okay. That was his upset special. I'm going to, we get one Seth a year.
27:39Like, we're going to put it up here. Three Seths and you're out.
27:43That's what it's going to do. I guess I'm going to give him more than one.
27:48That, I got to figure out how I'm marking this.
27:51You know what? He, I will boom, boom to him.
27:53I'm going to get him on the show next week.
27:56A prop show. So this is what's going to happen.
27:59I'm going to tell you right now. If that win, I'll let him host it if he wants.
28:04That'll be my gift. You can host it. I'll leave.
28:07Got the ax. I'll leave. If, if, if the Dolphins went on the money line, he's going to come on and I'm
28:14going to give him a minute to gloat. But if the 49ers beat the pants off, he's going to come on here
28:20and he's going to take it for about 30 seconds.
28:23If they, if they went by 20, if they went by 24 or more, he's coming on this show and he's a
28:29wrecking for that as the 49er Homer, I guess here.
28:32Oh, I mean, okay. Like I'm fine with like, I took the Rams last week and I get that, but that's the,
28:38that's some insanity in there, but I'm going to go to my prop because I'm going to join you in this.
28:44I do not buy or co-sign the upside special of the week, but God, God willing for him, not for me.
28:50I actually am playing an alt line here. Mike Evans receptions is actually three and a half over, but it's juiced and I don't like it.
28:58I don't like that number. And I feel very confident that we are going to see more than the three and a half over.
29:05I kind of wonder if one of it is, you know, maybe there's like a little bit of hold for them coming back.
29:11Maybe it's that they beat the woodworks off of the team and then they're not really playing in the second half.
29:17But regardless, Mike Evans saw seven targets. He saw them early on.
29:21His average depth of target has not been tremendously high.
29:23He was around an eight ADOT. You know, he got the 37.7% first read share.
29:28He didn't dominate the target share as you kind of mentioned, or even the actual first read share.
29:33It was around 24%, but he was kind of early and often.
29:36And if he does play it shorter downfield, this still works really well for Mike Evans.
29:41And guess what? If Seth is right and he's the new daddy of the amazing calls, this still works out well for
29:47me because the Niners are ultra competitive. The thing that doesn't work well for me is that the 49ers are up 30 to nothing at half.
29:55And then they want Mike Evans to, you know, massage and work out and rest that hamstring so it doesn't get blown out or whatever.
30:02That's the thing that doesn't work out for me.
30:04But even then, I don't care because a defense is bad.
30:08And Mike Evans is going to see early targets as the Niners did before.
30:12And I really like this alt reception line. It is plus 158 for five receptions for Mike Evans in this game.
30:18My biggest plus money play so far on the prop show, five receptions.
30:21Mike Evans, lock it up. And maybe either way, you guys are going to see Seth next week.
30:27What a call. I mean, I appreciate that. Seth ain't afraid.
30:30He ain't scared. So I can appreciate that. But absolutely horrendous, horrendous call.
30:33And I will eat my words. And I wouldn't say I'm not going to eat a dolphin or something like that, but
30:40I'll let him choose some horrible punishment. The poor animal.
30:43No, I love dolphins. That's like one of my favorite animals.
30:46I wouldn't do that in the first place, but we'll figure out some punishment.
30:50People probably love to see me shut the hell up.
30:53All right, let's go with the final one here.
30:55The final ones. These are actually going to be really fun.
30:58I'm going to preemptively tell you my under is coming up.
31:02I did hit my under last week. And this under, I talked about another show, but I love it so much.
31:08It's like my favorite under. I'm really locked into it, but I will do that here in a second.
31:13You've got a really sneaky play that you're dropping in here.
31:16And I'm actually surprised this number is out there.
31:19There's a little bit of juice with it, but I think people are going to vibe with it.
31:24So let's talk about your final prop. Rashad Bateman over two and a half receptions.
31:28It seems like the trend is that Zay Flowers is not going to be playing in week two, dealing with his hamstring injury.
31:35Jacoby Lane, we already know is not going to play after he fractured his wrist in week one.
31:40So that leaves Rashad Bateman as the de facto Ravens wide receiver one.
31:44Now don't look at any of his box scores from last year because you will find basically no games where he has at least three catches.
31:51This is a really more of a shoot from the hip kind of vibe type of pick.
31:56Vibes play. Hell yeah. That's why I got the cool glasses.
31:59I'm giving the vibes, baby. Again, just hit midnight here while we're recording.
32:03It's Friday for me. It's Thursday for Welsh. I mean, that weird time warp thing with Kyle Shanahan, et cetera.
32:09But Rashad Bateman, he's going to catch at least three passes in week two against the New Orleans Saints because number one
32:15wide receiver left for the Ravens last week. The usage was very strong.
32:19He ran a route on 96% of Lamar Jackson's dropbacks.
32:22He is on the field almost every single time they throw the football.
32:2579.7% snap share. Again, he has a full-time role in this offense and the head coach.
32:30Shout him out after the game. Shout to the coach peak index.
32:33Again, Jesse Minter mentioned big days are still ahead for Rashad Bateman, even after an empty box score in week one.
32:39And technically it wasn't even that empty of a box score because he did actually have a 19-yard catch that was called back due to a holding penalty.
32:47So his box score is a donut with one target.
32:50It was actually one catch for 19 yards on two targets.
32:53So a little bit better. Still not three receptions like we're trying to get to, but we're not done yet.
32:59One more thing to mention. Declan Doyle, the new offensive play caller, said post game again, shout out to the coach peak index, Greg Brainos.
33:06Excellent job over there. Was regretting not getting Bateman more touches in week one.
33:10Quote. Man, I got to get bait a touch here.
33:13Wait, wait. Hold on. Hold on. That quote was killer.
33:16Can you give it to me one more time?
33:19That was so good. Man, I got to get bait a touch here.
33:22Declan Doyle, the offensive play caller. So again, don't look at the numbers because there's no numbers that suggest that he's going
33:29to hit three catches, but everything else we're projecting ahead.
33:31We're forecasting what this matchup could look like against the Saints.
33:35And I think Rashad Bateman, because he's also good.
33:37This isn't like an Xavier to get play where I'm like, yeah, he's going to be out there.
33:42Like that guy can't catch a cold. So never Xavier to get overs.
33:46Rashad Bateman, very good separator. He always ranks really high in a lot of these separation metrics.
33:51He's going to be open. I think Lamar Jackson is going to hit him a couple of times.
33:56So going to take the over two and a half catches in week two for Shoddy B.
34:01We're having like way too much fun with these shows.
34:04We should also do a, we should track vibes, vibe bets this year.
34:08We're tracking Gibbs rollovers and props. Let's do some vibe bets.
34:11I'm totally down with it. Because we're recording late at night.
34:14Now you're getting Erickson after midnight. This is what happens.
34:17Things get kind of loony. Loony. Yeah. Well, and I think one you can do for me is we can track my
34:23unders because it's not something it's, it's, is it the over is where I go.
34:27You're one that you're perfect on unders on Monday night football.
34:31Want to know? And we'll see if I can go to a no.
34:34I'm going back to a primetime game here. And this is one of my favorites.
34:39And I found out after the fact, because I did do the Sunday night, Monday night football shows with Bogman.
34:44Found out after the fact that this bet is a five star bet on betting pros fully locked in.
34:50Daniel Jones, the game. Daniel Jones, the game. Daniel Jones, the game.
34:53And I'm going to go to a no. 32.5 under.
34:56Big old under. Projections around 30. By the way, last week, Bo Nix held a 28 even when they were down.
35:02Daniel Jones has not hit this marker in five straight games played and has only gone over this twice in his last 10.
35:09So eight of 10 on the under. I think also this game is primed to be more of a game that's on the ground.
35:16The Chiefs set themselves to want to run the ball a ton with Ken Walker.
35:20They did not. They didn't find success passing the ball, but they want to run with Ken Walker and Emmitt Johnson.
35:26Well, guess what? The Colts are going to want to do the same thing early on.
35:30They're going to want to get Jonathan Taylor's involved in this game as possible.
35:34The Chiefs are just not a team that you're also going to be passing that much on.
35:39So this is a smash play for me. Hopefully it's going to pan out.
35:4332.5 on the under. Projections at 30. Five-star bet on Betting Pros.
35:47We're trying to go 2-0 on the unders. Those are the 10 prop bets that we are locked into, but we are
35:53not done because it is time for some touchdown calls and our newest addition, our first touchdown in here.
35:59First, tell you guys about the touchdown score report.
36:01If you guys want to get in, check out bettingpros.com slash touchdown.
36:05Because if you're looking for an edge in touchdown bets, our touchdown score report compares anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds
36:11and projections to help identify the best anytime touchdown bets.
36:14Head to bettingpros.com slash touchdown for the latest touchdown prop analysis.
36:17Do it today. Last week, you did hit yours, and I think it was like a, was it like 220?
36:23220 to one or something like that? So you're positive ROI.
36:26We tend to attempt to do like a, somewhere between it's gotta be plus money.
36:30We always do plus money, plus money, like, you know, plus 105 to 195 ish.
36:34And then we do a little deeper one, that deeper one, usually going to probably sit in the two or two and
36:41a half to ones, but Hey, sometimes we might get crazy with it.
36:44We got two touchdown plays and yours are both close to that two to one marker.
36:49So where are you going with your touchdown calls this week?
36:52Going with Terry McLaurin, two to one facing the Dallas Cowboys.
36:55He saw all of his other wide receiver friends on the commander score touchdowns last week.
37:00Stephon Diggs scored touchdown and Tony Williams scored touchdowns, but no touchdowns for Terry McLaurin.
37:04Got a big old fat zero for fantasy points and catches and yards for McLaurin so much so that on the extra
37:11point on the fantasy pros feed, people were talking about, yeah, I'm an Eagles fan.
37:15Does Terry McLaurin, does he still have it? What is this guy?
37:18Someone, someone compared to a bag of chips. What was that question we got?
37:22Wasn't it like, it was like Caleb Douglas or Terry McLaurin, like that worried.
37:26Should I pick him up again? People, people are upset about Terry.
37:30And that's why I think this number is valued here at two to one when he's facing the Dallas Cowboys and all of Jaden Daniels rookie season.
37:37We saw Terry McLaurin just score touchdown after touchdown after touchdown.
37:41So he had a monster year that year. Obviously last season was a down year because he was injured, but I think
37:47this is a great bounce back spot for him.
37:49So you could approach it with the yards or the receptions, but I just think it's going to hit Pater.
37:55So give me Terry McLaurin at two to one to score a touchdown.
37:59And then my other touchdown bet is going to this bears Vikings game.
38:03I think when you're doing your touchdowns, you got to have a bear.
38:06I think that's got to be the rule for the show.
38:10We got to have at least one bear on the card or someone that's facing the bears on the card.
38:15So my pick here, I know because you have Jefferson going.
38:18So I have Colston Loveland again, another player coming off a really bad game, basically no involvement, but he did get a run zone target last week.
38:26Caleb Williams missed him. That won't happen two weeks in a row.
38:30I think especially against a Brian Flores led defense.
38:32I think you could see some opportunities where you're getting heavy personnel sets to pick up the blitzes, which means a lot
38:39of tight ends, which means a lot of involvement for Colston Loveland, who still ran the most routes among all of the bear skill pass catchers.
38:46So again, at close to two to one plus one 90 Colston Loveland, big red zone target for Caleb.
38:51I think he scores in week two. It's actually kind of pissed at myself for not picking that one after you.
38:57I was like, dang, I did leave him on the table because I think we've said that's great buyback opportunity on Colston Loveland.
39:04I will say the market didn't really give him a lot of like benefit of the doubt.
39:09You know what I mean? Like his reception, his receiving yards are still up there.
39:13His you would love to see it have come down a little bit like three and a half receptions and like low 40s.
39:20It's high 40s. It might even push into the 50s.
39:23Receptions are around the 4.5 over. So there's not a lot of benefit of the doubt given.
39:28But where I'm going, one of them, the easy one, but it's plus money, plus 130.
39:32Mike Evans, as mentioned before, Mike Evans saw multiple targets in the end zone.
39:36He also saw an end zone target when they were inside the 20.
39:40I don't really need to give you those numbers to know that like Mike Evans is going to be a red zone target.
39:46I think the 49ers are going to have plentiful of end zone and red zone opportunities.
39:51They are going to clearly try to get the ball to Mike Evans.
39:55And this is a really good spot. We're getting plus money on him.
39:59The other one, it's a little bit deeper. So I guess this is the biggest number of the four that we have here.
40:05And it's Matthew Golden. Matthew Golden last week with the Green Bay Packers.
40:09One of the biggest surprises was not just the big target share, but how about a 30% first read share?
40:15Also, he saw three targets inside the 20 and two red zone targets.
40:18It's phenomenal. Like he is like a sneaky waiting to happen wide.
40:22I know Christian Watson absolutely went ballistic, but don't sleep on Golden because the opportunities are coming.
40:27There might be some more props in there, but for him to have gotten those red zone opportunities already in that first
40:33one, a 30% first read share when they get into the red zone, that opportunity is going to pop back up.
40:39And if we get it this week, we're getting it at plus 220.
40:43So I really, really like that one for my deeper play.
40:46Matthew Golden. Wasn't he on your card last week?
40:48He was my first touchdown. He was my first touchdown bet.
40:52Yeah. He did get, I mean, he, he had an opportunity when they were rolling to catch one, but he would have
40:58had to make like a cool play, but he's not my first touchdown.
41:02I mean, he had a, I mean, being in on Matthew Golden last week in any capacity was very, very sharp because
41:08he had a monster game, 12 targets. Like, so, well, now we're going to get that touchdown here.
41:13All right. The final thing in, this is the newest thing we've added.
41:17First touchdown. We did not hit. I had Matthew Golden last week.
41:20I'm forgetting who you had. Charlie. No, are Charlie.
41:23It's bad. It's don't work. But you said, you said, hold my first touchdown because I'm going to go bigger this week.
41:29No joke. 80 to one. Erickson's dropping an 80.
41:32You know what? Hold on. I'm telling you 80 to one.
41:35Let's do mine. Cause mine isn't as impressive. I'm going to give you a 28 to one.
41:40So know that there's an 80 to one coming and I'm going with Eli Raritan.
41:44Hopefully you like that one. I actually think like back in the red zone, they could do this again.
41:49Pittsburgh Steelers can typically struggle against tight ends. They seem to like him in that spot.
41:54I think Drake May is going to have a bounce back spot.
41:5728 to one Eli Raritan for my first touchdown, but it holds nothing to an 80 to one marker.
42:03Present us with the ultimate first touchdown. This first touchdown will cover you for the season.
42:08If you lock it out, who do you have?
42:10I have a Houston Texans rookie tight end Marlon Klein.
42:13For those that aren't familiar. We know that Nico Collins probably a long shot to play in this matchup against Cincinnati Bengals
42:19who are notoriously been very bad against tight ends.
42:22Dalton Schultz is most likely going to be the most steamed up guy in fantasy rankings across the board.
42:27And Welsh, what happens when a tight end like that gets put and thrust into a, oh, this guy's going to smash.
42:34Every other tight end on the team catches a touchdown except for him.
42:37So unfortunately, that's not wrong. Okay. So like that's my process here.
42:41Dalton Kincaid is going to be amazing. Cole Komet for the touchdown.
42:44Dawson Knox for the touchdown. Even though Kincaid got one too.
42:47Yeah. That's okay. But who scored first? That's what matters.
42:50So Marlon Klein, you know whose birthday? It was.
42:53No. Don't you tell me there's an 80 to one birthday first touchdown bet.
42:57Do not tell me Klein's birthday is on Sunday.
42:59It's not on Sunday. It was today. His birthday was today.
43:03Oh, well, happy birthday. But they're still going to celebrate him by getting him the first touchdown because it's either, it's either
43:09going to be him or Cade Stover or Foster Moreau.
43:12It's going to be one of these guys for the Houston Texans.
43:15You could bet them all, but only one of them is at 80 to one.
43:19And that guy is Marlon Klein. And he only ran two routes last week.
43:23So we were working with a very low sample size, but he did get one target.
43:28He looked pretty good. And he's a player that they have been very buzzy about in a very Eli Raritan way where
43:34out of camp, it's like, hey, we really like this guy.
43:38He's a talented player. They drafted him pretty high and they like him a lot as a receiver.
43:43And the fact that he got positive feedback after the first game of the season, I think that his role will increase,
43:49especially with Neagle Collins, not in the lineup, especially as a red zone threat.
43:53So I know ultimately it's going to be end up being Moreau or Cade Stover or one of these other dudes.
43:59It's not going to be Schultz. I know it's not going to be Schultz.
44:03Guaranteed. That's a lock. Anti-touchdown first touchdown for Adela Schultz.
44:06So I'm going to go with Marlon Klein. And again, pick your favorite Texans tight end to score a touchdown.
44:12First touchdown. I like it too. Should be fun.
44:14He could straight up double his routes run 100% and he gets four.
44:18Two to four. That's all that he needs. If he can get two, I get it.
44:23I only need one target. You care about one.
44:25You only care about one. All right. So again, recap here.
44:28Marlon Klein at 80 to one. Eli Raritan for mine.
44:3128 to one on our first touchdowns. We've got, I've got Mike Evans and Matthew Golden for my any times.
44:37Erickson's got McLaurin and Loveland. And then the big props, as you saw before.
44:41Parker Washington over receptions for me, as well as Jeremiah Love over receiving yards.
44:45Jefferson over receptions at plus money. Plus money on Mike Evans alt receptions and Daniel Jones under pass attempts.
44:50Erickson has got Quinchon Jutkins under rushing yards. Bijon over rushing receiving.
44:54Matt Collins over receiving. Brock Purdy over completions. And Rashad Bateman over receptions.
44:58Those are our bets. What are yours? First touchdowns, drop them in the chat below.
45:02Any of your favorite bets and touchdown calls, drop them in the chat below.
45:06Let's see who's smashing. And hopefully you guys are having a fantastic week.
45:10And let's, we already got the Jameer Gibbs rollover.
45:12So we're not going to be looking for it for this weekend.
45:16But next week, we are going to go on to what the third play is going to be.
45:21More props, but until then, get in on Betting Pros.
45:24Lock in all your bets, whether you're tracking, whether you're looking for great information.
45:28Betting Pros has got you hooked up. Play along with us all weekend and we will see you next week.
45:33Good luck in week two. Props, we're done. Betting card set for Erickson.
45:37I'm Welsh. Good luck and have a fantastic one.
45:40I'll talk to you next time on Betting Pros.
45:42Peace. Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast.
45:45If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
45:51Follow us on X and TikTok at Betting Pros and Instagram at Betting Pros NFL.
45:56Also subscribe to our YouTube channel at youtube.com slash Betting Pros.
45:59This is Colin Coward from the Colin Coward podcast.
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46:46Some people use ChatGPT to answer questions. Others use it to get real work done.
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