Week 1 Fantasy Football Decisions: Start/Sit Advice for Every Position (Ep. 2186)

A.J. Brown is mentioned as an example of a wide receiver that might be drafted early and leave a drafter needing to shoot for upside elsewhere in Week 1.

Bo Nix averaged 6.8 yards per attempt as a rookie and 6.4 yards per attempt last year (matching Bryce Young's 2025 YPA), raising questions about his overall talent level; however, the source notes his fantasy situation is good given Sean Payton's system and Denver's high pass-attempt volume, and one the source prefers Nix slightly over Willis due to consistency concerns with Willis's floor, ranking Nix QB 18 while another ranks him QB 14-15.

Breece Hall is mentioned as a tough call in Week 1 due to Tua Tagovailoa's situation at Pittsburgh, which affects the overall game script and decision-making for the Jets offense.

The source prefers Breece Hall over Drake London in flex if Hall is 100% healthy, citing the Steelers matchup concern for Drake London and the uncertainty of the Tua Tagovailoa-Jaden Daniels pairing.

Bowers is not playing in Week 1, removing him from the tight end rankings and creating opportunity for other tight ends like Juwan Johnson to move up in weekly consideration.

Brock Bowers is out for the Raiders-Dolphins Week 1 matchup, which increases the offensive load on Ashton Gentty.

The source (Fitz) is a Bucky Irving believer and dismisses preseason narratives that Kenny Gainwell would share work evenly or outtouch Irving; the source expects Irving to be the lead back and projects him as a potential top-15 running back.

Caleb Douglas is a high-upside play for Week 1 if you need to shoot for upside after losing a wide receiver early in your draft (e.g., A.J. Brown). The source compares him to Cedric Tillman but notes Tillman is actually producing on the field; Douglas offers big plays downfield and touchdown upside. He's ranked low in Week 1 consensus (71st per one source), which feels too low given the Dolphins-Raiders game has one of the lowest Vegas totals (41.5) with two of the worst defensive backfields in the NFL, ensuring passing volume. The source would take Douglas over alternatives like Wandel Robinson.

Cedric Tillman is compared to Caleb Douglas but is actually producing on the field, unlike Douglas.

Long-term, Chris Bell is the answer as the Dolphins' clear number-one receiver; if not injured, he likely would have been a first-round NFL draft pick and would be in conversation with other first-round wide receivers. The Dolphins have no defense, ensuring passing volume, and Bell can throw the ball. However, Week 1 appears to be Caleb Douglas and Bell, with Douglas getting the start.

Johnson is ranked ninth at tight end by the source, behind Kittle, Goddard, and Fannin, and ahead of Sam Laporta.

DK Metcalf is one of the clear top two target-share receivers for the Steelers alongside Michael Pittman, with no conversation or concern about his role; tight end involvement is not a major concern at his level.

D.K. Metcalf is ranked below J.K. Dobbins in a flex start/sit decision. The source previously noted that Anthony Pittman could have better fantasy value than Metcalf, suggesting Metcalf's value is depressed relative to expectations.

The source expresses concern about Drake London facing the Steelers defense in Pittsburgh with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback; this matchup concern, combined with uncertainty about Tagovailoa's performance against Pittsburgh's defense, makes Drake London less attractive than Breece Hall in flex.

Drake London faces a difficult matchup with Tua Tagovailoa at Pittsburgh in Week 1. The source notes London is ranked wide receiver 10 overall but expresses nervousness about the Tua-at-Pittsburgh matchup. Fantasy Pros consensus shows London has the highest bust ranking of any top-15 receiver by a wide margin, indicating significant downside risk despite his ranking.

Jake Seeley drafted Drake May as a top four or five quarterback early and started him in Week 1, but the pick backfired; while the Seahawks defense deserves some credit, the early-season reliance on draft capital and previous season talk rather than careful Week 1 analysis contributed to the poor performance.

Kittle has top-three upside at tight end and should be started if available. The source explicitly states 'if I have Kittle, I'm starting him because he's got top three upside.'

Kittle has top three upside at tight end; the source is starting him if available in Week 1.

J.K. Dobbins is favored over D.K. Metcalf in a flex start/sit decision. The source emphasizes that when healthy, Dobbins projects as a top-20 running back. He is ranked 31st in consensus Week 1 rankings, which the source views as too low even against Kansas City. Concerns about Jonah Coleman creating a three-headed backfield are noted but secondary to Dobbins' health status.

The source prefers J.K. Dobbins in a start/sit decision, citing emotional attachment as a tiebreaker and the fact that he expects limited healthy weeks from Dobbins this season, making it prudent to start him while available rather than risk sitting him.

The source expresses concern about Jaden Daniels facing the Steelers defense in Pittsburgh, citing the poor offensive line situation in Washington that could limit his time to throw and affect his receivers' production.

The source uses Jalen Waddle as a comparison point when discussing Quentin Johnston's role in the Chargers offense, noting that Waddle and Ladd McConkey work better together than Johnston and McConkey, suggesting Johnston may have a different role than Waddle.

Jaylen Waddle is favored over Bashtart Tootin in a flex start/sit decision. The source prefers Waddle as a top-20 wide receiver with guaranteed target volume over Tootin, who may be in a committee backfield with uncertain snap/touch splits. Waddle is ranked wide receiver 19 positionally and around 40s overall flex.

Jake would prefer Jalen Warren in games where the Steelers are expected to play catch-up and pass more, as Warren's pass-catching ability becomes more valuable in negative game scripts.

Fitz believes Jalen Warren is a much better fit for late-career Aaron Rodgers than Rico Dowdle. Warren is a superior pass catcher and pass blocker, which are critical for protecting an aging quarterback who cannot move and does not want to take hits. Fitz also believes Warren is a better runner than Dowdle.

The source expresses legitimate concerns that Jonah Coleman could turn the Ravens backfield into a three-headed committee; Sean Payton has used three-headed backfields in New Orleans before, which could limit Coleman's workload and opportunity if he proves productive.

Jonah Coleman presents a concern for J.K. Dobbins' workload. The source notes that Coleman could turn the Broncos backfield into a three-headed committee, similar to Sean Payton's usage patterns in New Orleans. If Coleman proves productive, this could significantly limit Dobbins' touches and fantasy value.

The source notes that Justin Herbert and Quentin Johnston have played many games together, providing familiarity and chemistry that contrasts with Stefan Diggs and Jaden Daniels, who have never played a regular season game together.

Saints tight end has a very promising matchup against the Lions in Week 1. Detroit's offense is lethal and will force the Saints to keep pace offensively; Saints head coach Kellen Moore operates at a fast pace. Saints-Lions Vegas total is 49.5, and Ford Field is noted as high-scoring. Lions will be without star safeties Brian Branch and Kirby Joseph early in the season; with both healthy in 2023, Detroit allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends, but last year with injuries they allowed the 15th-fewest. With both out, Detroit is a very favorable tight end matchup. Starting safeties Avante Maddox and Chuck Clark are not reassuring replacements.

The source ranks Johnson at tight end 8 in Week 1 rankings, just behind the top seven tight ends (with Brock Bowers out). Another the source ranks him at tight end 9, with only George Kittle ranked ahead of him among the consensus top options.

Johnson had almost 900 yards last season and is walking into a situation where the Saints don't have a number two receiver. This role expansion supports his Week 1 appeal as a primary target option in the Saints offense.

Juwan Johnson benefits from Saints head coach Kellen Moore's fast-pace offense and Ford Field being the Coors Field of the NFL, creating a favorable matchup environment.

The source leans toward Kenny Gainwell in a flex start/sit decision, believing he can still deliver RB3 value in Week 1 even with Bucky Irving as a potential top-15 running back, viewing both players' success as compatible outcomes.

The source references Ladd McConkey as part of the Chargers receiving corps, noting that McConkey and Jalen Waddle complement each other better than McConkey and Quentin Johnston, suggesting McConkey will be a primary target.

Malik Willis joined the Dolphins as a backup quarterback. The offseason narrative was that he would go to a team and get a chance to be the QB1, but when he landed on the Dolphins, expectations shifted. The appeal of the Dolphins is their lack of defense, which ensures passing volume, and Willis knows how to throw the ball.

The source ranks Malik Willis as a top-tier fantasy QB option due to his rushing ability, comparing him favorably to Lamar Jackson; Willis is ranked QB 13 by one the source and is noted to have "top five upside because of the rushing," though the source acknowledges floor risk if he underperforms as a rookie in Week 1.

The source (Fitz) prefers Malik Willis over Bo Nix, citing Willis's running ability as a cheat code; while Bo Nix does run, Willis is a more dynamic rushing threat, making him the preferred start in this matchup.

Goddard is ranked eighth at tight end in consensus rankings, which places Johnson at ninth.

In limited sample with Jacoby Brissette (three and a half games), Marvin Harrison Jr. was treated as the clear number one receiver ahead of Michael Wilson and Terry McBride, all three being healthy together.

Fitz drafted Marvin Harrison Jr. more than intended this offseason, viewing him as the last receiver in draft rankings with upside potential. He felt there was a real gap between the top 30-31 receivers and everyone else, and Harrison represented the last upside play before that gap.

Fitz has hope that Marvin Harrison Jr. will take things to another level in Michael Fleur's offense after a disappointing start to his career, though he acknowledges skepticism about his ability to elevate his game.

Marvin Harrison Jr. faces the Falcons' strong defensive backfield, which includes the Terrell brothers (AJ and Avion), safeties Jesse Bates and Xavier Watts, and slot corner Billy Bowman returning from injury.

Jake believes a healthy Michael Pittman might actually be more valuable than DK Metcalf with the Steelers this year under Mike McCarthy, given Pittman's role as a short-range intermediate target and the Steelers' expected strong performance against Atlanta.

Michael Pittman faces Atlanta, which is missing key defensive pieces including injuries to their rookie cornerback, creating an opportunity for the Steelers' passing game to come out strong.

In the Cardinals' passing game with Jacoby Brissette, Michael Wilson is expected to be the number two receiver behind Trey McBride, with Marvin Harrison Jr. and Wilson competing for the second target share.

The source dismisses Mike Washington as a timeshare threat to Ashton Gentty, characterizing him as an overage prospect who didn't pop until his fifth college season, in contrast to Gentty being one of the best running back prospects of the millennium.

The source mentions Quentin Johnston as having upside in the wide receiver range, comparing him favorably to other receivers in the flex rankings and noting that his upside is worth considering despite uncertainty about target splits.

The source has been bullish on Quentin Johnston's preseason and believes he has Tyreek Hill-like upside in the Chargers offense under Mike McDaniel, who can leverage Johnston's catch-and-run ability; the risk is a goose egg if the Chargers control the game, but the upside is worth chasing in Week 1 over Stefan Diggs.

Jake believes Rico Dowdle is a better three-down back than Jalen Warren and expects the split to favor Dowdle, potentially 55-45 or even 50-50. He notes the connection between Dowdle and Mike McCarthy, similar to the Wondell Robinson-Brian Dable relationship.

Jake prefers Rico Dowdle in games where the Steelers are expected to be in control, as he believes the Steelers will win by a lot against Atlanta, favoring the running game and Dowdle's role.

The source expresses skepticism about the narrative that Mike McCarthy favors Rico Dowdle in the Dallas backfield, citing the risk of a 50-50 split that would create weekly uncertainty about which back to start.

The source identifies Stefan Diggs as a potential beneficiary of Washington's historically poor offensive line (described as worst in 10 years by coverage), which could lead to more targets; however, there is a risk of shallow targets with low average depth of target due to quick releases.

Jake believes Stefan Diggs will be a beneficiary if Jayden Daniels doesn't have time behind what is being called the worst offensive line in 10 years. More pressure on the quarterback means more short, quick passes to Diggs.

The source notes that a poor offensive line situation for the Commanders means Jayden Daniels will have less time, which typically results in more targets for short-range receivers like Stefan Diggs.

While Saints head coach Kellen Moore's fast-pace offense and Ford Field's favorable environment apply to Etienne, he lacks the individual matchup advantage that Juwan Johnson has; the Lions allowed the seventh fewest fantasy points to running backs last season, and their middle linebacker Jack Campbell is strong against inside runs.

The source expresses concern about Tua Tagovailoa's performance against the Steelers defense in Pittsburgh, which affects the outlook for his receivers like Drake London.

The source raises multiple concerns about Wandale Robinson's Week 1 outlook: the Titans offense looked broken in preseason, there's no guarantee Robinson will see the same workload he had with the Giants now that Calvin Ridley is healthy, and Cam Ward's learning curve in the new offense (Eli Manning took six games to adjust at his peak) creates additional uncertainty around volume and efficiency.

The source (Fitz) prefers Wandale Robinson over Kenny Gainwell, expecting Robinson to replicate his PPR-friendly production from his time with the Giants under play-caller Brian Daboll; now reunited with Daboll in Tennessee, the source projects a classic Robinson stat line of seven catches for 52 yards.

Zay Flowers has been dealing with a hamstring injury heading into Week 1, though the source characterizes it as not a major concern and expects him to play. However, there is at least a slight element of risk.

Zay Flowers faces elite cornerback coverage from the Colts' Sauce Gardner and Charverius Ward. While Ward has injury concerns (missed 15 games over last two years), he is excellent when healthy, and Sauce Gardner is widely regarded as an elite cornerback.

Jake champions Zay Flowers for his ascent to wide receiver one status over a complete season, and prefers him over Ted Rowe-McMillan in Week 1 due to the Ravens' superior offense and quarterback. He notes that Flowers finally delivered what was wanted from him.

The source notes uncertainty about Zay Flowers' role in the Ravens' new offensive system under Declan Doyle, which may feature more under-center and play-action looks. However, the source is not overly concerned given Lamar Jackson's presence and track record with new coordinators.