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NFL Week 1 REACTIONS: Jaguars, Bears & Ravens Go Off, Chargers Dud & Big Injury Updates (Ep. 2192)

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 18 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 15, 2026
Published
Tue, September 15, 2026
34
Player insights
32
Players mentioned
Topics
Christian WatsonD'Andre SwiftBijan RobinsonBrock BowersCam WardCarson WentzColston LovelandD.J. MooreDallas GoedertDalton KincaidDavid MontgomeryDerrick HenryDrake LondonIsaiah Likely
Player analysis

Player insights

34

Bijan Robinson

PositiveUsage33:33

Bijan Robinson is the only non-sittable player on the Falcons offense. He saw massive usage in Week 1, including a 50% target share and touching the ball on 66% of his snaps, keeping his 1,000-yard rushing/1,000-yard receiving season hopes alive.

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Brock Bowers

PositiveProjection99:02

The source suggests that Brock Bowers is a better bet for Offensive Player of the Year than Ashton Gentry because he plays on a better team, though Gentry may see a temporary boost in receiving work while Bowers is sidelined.

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Cam Ward

NegativeBust45:16

Debro and Erickson express significant concern regarding Cam Ward, labeling him a potential bust after a poor Week 1 performance (59.3% completion rate, 4.4 yards per attempt) and a wretched preseason. Ward struggled under pressure, which occurred on 46.2% of his dropbacks against the Jets, and showed poor decision-making against zone coverage. With a difficult upcoming schedule including the Eagles, Giants, and Ravens, there is speculation that he could be benched for Mitch Trubisky if the team enters tank mode.

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Carson Wentz

PositiveProjection15:13

Carson Wentz struggled with accuracy in relief of Kyler Murray, with 21.1% of his throws being off-target. The source expects his effectiveness to diminish as he continues to play.

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Christian Watson

PositiveBreakout54:26

Christian Watson is a major stock-up candidate after a dominant Week 1 performance against the Vikings, recording six catches on eight targets for 147 yards and two touchdowns. He excelled on vertical routes and is viewed as a high-ceiling breakout receiver in the Packers' offense, which is currently leaning more into the passing game in the absence of Josh Jacobs.

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PositiveBreakout95:10

Christian Watson looks like a top-level receiver this year; he showed elite burst on an 81-yard touchdown catch-and-run where defenders struggled to bring him down. The source feels strongly about his outlook, provided he stays healthy.

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Colston Loveland

NegativeUsage24:04

Despite a 59-point offensive explosion by the Lions, Colston Loveland recorded zero catches. However, he maintained an 84% route share, leading the team, and the source remains unconcerned about his long-term outlook.

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D.J. Moore

PositiveRole31:56

The addition of DJ Moore has made it easier for other pieces in the Bills offense to coexist and click, acting as the clear number one receiver.

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D'Andre Swift

PositiveUsage28:28

DeAndre Swift is being used heavily in the red zone and is positioned to potentially crack the top 12 running backs for the first time in his career. He left additional production on the table in Week 1, including a wildcat snap and an explosive run called back by penalty.

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PositiveValue122:02

DeAndre Swift is identified as a running back who was undervalued in the 'dead zone' of drafts and delivered a huge game in Week 1.

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Dallas Goedert

PositiveValue23:49

Dallas Goedert was the top-performing player for the source's fantasy team in Week 1, suggesting that the late-round tight end strategy may be viable this season.

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Dalton Kincaid

PositiveBreakout30:20

Dalton Kincaid is showing signs of a breakout season, playing a full-time role with a 74% snap share and 68% route share in Week 1. He demonstrated a diverse skill set, including 113 yards while aligned out wide, the most for a tight end in a single game since 2021.

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David Montgomery

NegativeValue122:35

David Montgomery scored three touchdowns in Week 1, but the source notes he only averaged three yards per carry. While he remains a goal-line threat, the source considers him a sell-high candidate as this may be his best game of the season.

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Derrick Henry

PositiveUsage13:13

Following injuries to Zay Flowers and Jacoby Lane, the Ravens' offense is expected to rely heavily on Derrick Henry in Week 2.

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Drake London

PositiveValue33:37

Drake London is currently a sit until the quarterback situation improves, though he remains an interesting buy-low candidate because he has performed well when Michael Penix is under center.

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Isaiah Likely

PositiveBreakout100:17

Isaiah Likely is a major stock-up candidate after an 8-catch, 78-yard, 2-touchdown debut. He was used as a primary receiver, running 91.6% of his routes from receiver spots with a 31.8% first-read target share. Despite a 49% snap share, his 70% route share suggests he could become a top-6 or top-7 tight end rest-of-season.

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Ja'Marr Chase

NegativeValue22:51

Jamar Chase continued his trend of poor Week 1 performances with only two catches for 12 yards. The source advises fantasy managers not to panic, as he historically bounces back with massive games in Week 2.

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Justin Jefferson

PositiveProjection20:33

Justin Jefferson remains a strong fantasy asset with Carson Wentz, having previously averaged 90 receiving yards per game with him. He is expected to score again in Week 2 against the Bears.

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Juwan Johnson

PositiveUsage22:26

Juwan Johnson was largely absent for 58 minutes of the game before salvaging his performance with a late-game surge, ultimately hitting his receiving yards prop and scoring an anytime touchdown.

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Kenneth Gainwell

NegativeUsage23:14

Kenneth Gainwell was started in the flex position over Rome Odunze, though neither player provided a significant fantasy performance.

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Kyle Pitts

PositiveUsage33:42

Kyle Pitts is currently a sit. He has reverted to a part-time player role for the Falcons, recording only one target in Week 1.

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Kyler Murray

NegativeInjury14:13

Kyler Murray suffered a concussion early in the game against Minnesota. The source suggests it is fair to assume he will miss at least Week 2.

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Ladd McConkey

NegativeInjury111:53

Ladd McConkey was cooking early in Week 1, but his injury in the second half significantly impacted the Chargers' passing attack. His constant injury issues are a concern given his undersized profile.

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Lamar Jackson

PositiveProjection41:46

Lamar Jackson is viewed as a top-tier MVP contender. The source notes that if he stays healthy, he is a primary candidate for the award, supported by his strong Week 1 performance and the high-level play-calling of offensive coordinator Declan Doyle.

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Mark Andrews

NegativeBust105:22

Mark Andrews looked 'washed' in his Week 1 performance, leading the source to question the Ravens' decision to extend him over the younger, more productive Isaiah Likely.

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Marvin Harrison Jr.

PositiveBust115:18

Marvin Harrison Jr. is a major disappointment after Week 1, recording only 33 yards on an 8.1% target share. He is being deployed as a field-stretcher rather than a chain-mover, and the source suggests he is currently in the wrong role for his skill set.

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Matthew Golden

PositiveUsage56:20

Matthew Golden led the Green Bay Packers in targets during Week 1, indicating he is a player whose stock is rising alongside the team's overall passing game efficiency.

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Matthew Stafford

NegativeProjection27:27

Matthew Stafford looked poor in Week 1, failing to throw a touchdown. While the source attributes some of this to travel and age, they acknowledge he looked bad beyond just the lack of touchdowns.

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Parker Washington

PositiveBreakout43:28

Parker Washington is identified as a key, elite number one wide receiver for the Jaguars. The source notes his contract value is expected to rise significantly following his performance and role within the offense.

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Rashod Bateman

NegativeUsage12:45

With Zay Flowers and Jacoby Lane exiting the game, Rashad Bateman is a candidate for a target bump in the Ravens' passing attack, though he recorded only one catch (which was nullified by penalty) in Week 1.

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Rome Odunze

NegativeUsage23:14

Rome Odunze was benched in favor of Kenneth Gainwell in the flex spot, and ultimately did not provide a strong fantasy performance.

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Trevor Lawrence

PositiveProjection39:48

Erickson views Trevor Lawrence as a legitimate MVP candidate following a four-touchdown performance against the Browns. Lawrence demonstrated elite downfield ability, recording 10 of 11 passes for 179 yards and three touchdowns on throws of 10+ air yards, with an 11.3 aDOT that ranked third in Week 1. While facing tough competition for the MVP award from Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, Lawrence is considered a strong value at +1400 odds, with significant upside to climb the betting markets if he performs well against Denver.

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Trey McBride

NegativeUsage24:11

Trey McBride was in the opponent's lineup during the source's fantasy matchup, and the source successfully defeated that team.

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Zay Flowers

PositiveInjury3:43

Zay Flowers suffered a hamstring injury that is not considered serious; he is day-to-day and would have likely returned if it were a playoff game. The source notes he had a 33.3% target share and 46% first-read share in the first half before exiting.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

1,029
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. amu.apus.edu slash military.
0:03Hello, everybody. Welcome into the tailgate. I am Ryan Warmly joined today by Derek Brown and Andrew Erickson.
0:08Guys, we have football to discuss. Week 1 is almost in the books.
0:12One more game tonight. We are recording here Monday morning.
0:14Broncos and Chiefs still on the slate. Everybody else has already gotten a game under their belts.
0:19We have week 1 to react to. Erickson, how are you feeling here the morning after the first Sunday slate?
0:25I'm feeling excited, exhilarated, ready to just continue to dive into everything that happened in week 1.
0:30There's so much data, film to digest and to then turn it around for Tuesday, for Wednesday, for waiver wire, for start sit.
0:36And before you know it, it's going to be Thursday night.
0:40It's going to be the Bills and Lions kicking off another great start to another great week of football coming up.
0:45So there's really no better time to be a live worm.
0:49It is such a rhythm of the season that you get into, but really quickly, as soon as the season kicks off
0:55of, you know, Monday's our reactions and Tuesday's our waivers and Wednesday's our traits like it really does flow.
1:00I always feel like fall is the fastest moving season because of the rhythm and regiment nature of the NFL season.
1:06Debra, how are you feeling here on the first Monday of the season?
1:10I'm doing good, baby. A lot of flagplank guys popped off at a really good betting week.
1:15I got nothing to gripe about on this Monday morning.
1:18Dude, I was going to say, you had a great week if you look at all of your rankings.
1:23We ran pretty pure, baby! Woo! Every single player that you were hyping up this summer, this was the week of Debro for sure.
1:30So I know you're feeling very good. Zay Flowers is in the touchdown lead too.
1:34Not to bury the lead here too far, but you know, just saying.
1:38If I wasn't in a public establishment, the pants would have been off.
1:41Zay Flowers after that touchdown yesterday or Sunday? My counter to that is even if you were in a public establishment.
1:47I was at my niece's birthday party. Okay, fine.
1:50Okay, well, that's not a public establishment. I can't let her see Uncle Erickson in that type of setting.
1:55I thought you were like standing in the middle of a Wendy's.
1:59Are you Uncle Erickson or Uncle Andrew? Because wouldn't everybody there also be Erickson's?
2:03Well, no. It's on the other side. So the other side.
2:06Okay. You can be Uncle Exilbert. My wife has yet to change her name.
2:10Or would you be Uncle Anderson? For those that are initiated.
2:13Only on a good day. Yeah. All right. Well, speaking of Zay Flowers, let's get into the news and notes here.
2:19That's how we're going to start off the show each and every Monday.
2:23And his hamstring injury, one of the biggest news of the week.
2:26There actually wasn't a ton of injury stuff. There was more last week.
2:30You know, in those first couple of games. You know, to start off the season last week.
2:35And then also like, you know, like the Bowers news, things like that.
2:38As far as the actual Sunday slate goes, relatively unscathed.
2:41Zay Flowers leaving the game after a dominant first half is really the big news there.
2:46He had 150 yards and a touchdown. And just looked like the best player on the field.
2:51Like just eye test watching that game. Didn't even finish two quarters and still is wide receiver five in scoring on the week.
2:57He left the game with a hamstring injury. There is an update this morning from Ian Rappaport.
3:02I'll just read it verbatim here. Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers, who left Sunday's win over the Colts early, suffered a hamstring injury that is not considered serious.
3:10Sources say he'll have an MRI, but if it was a playoff game, he likely would have returned.
3:15Flowers is considered day to day heading into testing.
3:18This is pretty good news. The offense looked very different with him on the field.
3:22They scored touchdowns in four of their first five drives.
3:25And if not for a holding penalty, it would have been five out of five.
3:29They looked unstoppable with him on the field. It looked very different with him off the field.
3:34They still were scoring. They still won the game handedly, but it wasn't as easy explosive as it was with Zay Flowers.
3:40So again, really did like I thought he looked better at receiver than the Marley looked at quarterback.
3:45I thought they looked like the best player on the field that day.
3:49So, Erickson, you have been all you guys both have been all over Zay Flowers this summer.
3:54But I know I've talked to you a lot, Erickson, about it.
3:57What was your reaction just to seeing him have this big game, but then also the injury stuff?
4:02Just the microcosm of what it's like to be a fantasy football manager and analyst and ranker that you get really high on these certain players.
4:10And when they hit in a big way, you feel so justified by all the research and work you put into.
4:16But then also realizing that it can get taken away at any moment.
4:19This game can be absolutely brutal. Last year for me, that was Tucker Craft, right?
4:23It just was a mega hit. But then eventually he got hurt.
4:27So he didn't actually end up finishing the season.
4:29So I'm really happy that the news is generally good for Zay Flowers.
4:33I guess from my perspective and understanding reading the tea leaves between the reporting, it's that he didn't suffer a hamstring strain
4:39and it's more he has hamstring tightness, which is why they're keeping him out so that it doesn't get worse.
4:45I would feel much better if he just doesn't play next week, even if he's good to go.
4:50Like because we've seen this with soft tissue injuries before the fact that he was also dealing with it beforehand, the fact
4:56that he was playing through this and still was balling out into your point where I'm looking at the best player on the field, despite having hamstring tightness.
5:04Just don't risk it. He's your best wide receiver on the team.
5:08Like you can get reproductive with Lamar with Derrick Henry.
5:11The Ravens are playing who again next week in week two?
5:14We're going to talk about the Saints. So and they're eight and a half point favorites.
5:18You need that five favorites. I mean, look, if they got to lose a game at home just to make sure Zay
5:25Flower is healthy throughout the rest of the season, like I would be.
5:28And then week three is against the Cowboys in Rio.
5:31So that's a game. I know the Cowboys lost in week one, but that's a game they're circling more.
5:37Like if you look at their first seven weeks, the Cowboys is the only game going into the season.
5:42You don't know how it's going to play out, but going into the season, the Cowboys was the first of those first
5:48six games that was like, oh, that's going to be the tough one.
5:52Everything else is like a pretty easy start to the schedule.
5:55So to me, that's the one you're circling. Especially because it's it's NFC, right?
5:59This matters so little in terms of the overall standing when you're trying again, it's different.
6:04This is an AFC North like the Cincinnati Bengals are coming to town.
6:07Like that would be probably a different type of mindset.
6:10But I think the Ravens would just be very smart to be conservative.
6:14We saw last year what happened with Lamar, right?
6:16When he came back, he wasn't himself. It was a disaster.
6:19So please Baltimore do the right thing and let Zay get healthy, even more healthy, 120%.
6:24And please, please, please, please. Their next five games, like I'm not saying he's going to miss five games, but like if
6:30they want it to be extra conservative, their next five games are the Saints, the Cowboys, the Titans, the Falcons, and the Browns, right?
6:37This is not a stretch. You should need Zay Flowers on your team to easily win.
6:42That Dallas game is the only one that's, you know, a little bit more notable there.
6:46So, yeah, I hope they are as conservative as possible.
6:49Jacoby Lane that, you know, the summer standout, D bro, fractures his wrist in this game.
6:54Really kind of a bummer because he catches his touchdown, has a fun celebration.
6:58First catch in the NFL gets called back on a holding penalty by Javon Gwynn.
7:02And then he gets hurt on two plays later and doesn't return.
7:05So he is going to miss several weeks, D bro.
7:08He is. And we'll see, you know, when he comes back.
7:11I mean, not, not all wrist fractures are the same.
7:14So it depends on, you know, how bad it is, how much, you know, does he need surgery?
7:19Are they going to splint it? What happens with that?
7:22Just back to the Zay Flowers conversation real quick.
7:25I just want anybody to understand in the first half of that game, this man had a 33.3% target share and a 46% first reach here.
7:32He was the passing offense. So, you know, Zay Flowers, like if he misses next week, as well as now with being
7:38without Jacoby Lane, we could see a Baltimore passing attack that obviously runs through Mark Andrews, but obviously maybe Rashad Bateman gets a big bump.
7:45Bateman had zero catches in this game, despite both those receivers going down.
7:49Well, no, he did have one catch, but what got wiped away out of penalty.
7:53Yeah. Yeah. So probably a big heavy dose of Derrick Henry.
7:56We're going to see in week two. Probably a lot of Derrick Henry.
8:00Maybe, maybe Lamar. I mean, the Saints Lions game, the Lions had no problems running the football over the New Orleans Saints.
8:06No. Yeah. We're going to talk a little bit more about the Ravens later.
8:10So let's move on here. Kyler Murray concussion, very scary hit early on in that game for Minnesota.
8:15Obviously concussions typically in the sort of modern era of the way they treat it are at least a week missed.
8:21I have not seen an update this morning. If there's any sort of news on that specifically D bro, but generally speaking,
8:28I think it's fair to probably assume he will not be playing in week two at the very least.
8:33What was your reaction? Like, obviously you don't want to see people get hurt and we're hoping for the best for Kyler,
8:39but also just like to seeing Carson Wentz running this offense.
8:42And, you know, Justin Jefferson did have a big bounce back game one compared to last season.
8:47Like what were your thoughts on the offense overall without Kyler in there and what you expect from them for as long as he's out?
8:54I still think this offense can be fine against way.
8:57Like I know everybody's going to look at the Justin Jefferson, two touchdowns and feel really good about it.
9:03I understand that. And then when it's leading them to the victory also, but if you look at it from a per
9:09drop back basis, 21.1% of Carson wins his throws were off target.
9:12So it's not like Carson Wentz played it like, like he was extremely accurate quarterback.
9:16Can he run the offense? Sure. Because he's not five foot eight.
9:20So I think it's still, you know, it remains to be seen that when Kyler comes back, can he run this offense or what that looks like?
9:28So I don't want to make too many sweeping judgments based off of week one where Kyler goes out immediately, whatever we
9:34were going to see out of the Vikings probably immediately you turned based off of like installs, full game plan, bet, like all of this around Kyler Murray.
9:42And then immediately he's lost in the game. So you're having to pivot on the fly, what they're going to do and
9:48stuff, you know, scripted plays and, and just kind of throw everything in the tank.
9:52But I mean, it was good to see the Vikings, you know, get out with a win.
9:57I think that, that, that win was more of a statement by the Packers of what are we doing here?
10:03I like they, are we at the point of having a conversation about the floor has a problem closing out games?
10:09If he can't just play slow and lean on Josh Jacobs.
10:12I think we're well into that conversation. Honestly, I agree with you wholeheartedly.
10:16That's the, he's always been a great play designer, but people have more problems with his play calling than his play design.
10:22And the stuff that goes into being a head coach besides designing an offense, you talk to Packers fans.
10:27They're really unhappy with him in that regard. So I, yeah, I'm, I'm with you there.
10:32By the way, the next two games for the Vikings at Chicago, at Tampa Bay, Erickson.
10:36I mean, it's not like we expect Kyler to miss the season or anything like that, but if he misses like significant
10:43time, like depending on the severity of this concussion, you know, the Vikings were kind of one of the fun, they were
10:49the fourth team in the division for a lot of people, but one of those like fourth place teams going into the
10:55season, like, hey, you could totally still see them winning and kind of a fun, you got to pick somebody that's going to be surprised.
11:02I saw a lot of, you know, podcasts out there picking the Vikings as sort of a surprise division winner.
11:08Do you think that's on the table with Carson Wentz or is this just like, you got to get Kyler back as soon as possible?
11:15No, I think that the Wentz wagon will run dry as the weeks continue and progress.
11:20Like there's a reason why they stuck with JJ McCarthy, kept them on the roster.
11:24There's reason why they went out and got Kyler Murray.
11:27Carson Wentz has been on this roster the entire time.
11:29He was never the number one option. He was okay.
11:32Well, he knows the offense and we can use him in a case of emergency like they did in week one.
11:38Now the Vikings had all the breaks go for them in this game.
11:42When it comes to the penalties, you know, Carson Wentz got picked off and it came back on a holding penalty and then they scored.
11:49And then Jordan love has a sack fumble and they get the ball at the one yard line.
11:54Jordan Mason punches in for a touchdown. Like they were getting beat handily.
11:58And then they ended up blowing out the Packers in the fourth quarter of the game because everything kind of worked in
12:04their favor again, in terms of just the yardage, like they were, they were outplayed not matched.
12:09So I know that as the Minnesota Vikings money line ticket holder, I was not upset about the outcome of this particular game.
12:16I was disappointed though, because Alfredo and Debra, we all talked about on the tailgate prediction show about this game.
12:21They liked the Packers. I liked the Vikings, but a lot of the analysis was about Kyler Murray.
12:26So we didn't even get to see that even like play out in terms of how this game was actually going to end up finishing.
12:33Like, so I would say just on the surface level, I just think that having Wentz is great for Justin Jefferson because
12:40we've already seen this proof of concept work before.
12:42Jefferson was putting up 90 receiving yards per game last year with Carson Wentz.
12:46He already has as many touchdowns as he has last year too.
12:50And he's going to get his third touchdown because he's facing the bears in week two.
12:54So Jefferson's already going to exceed his touchdown total in the second game of the season.
12:59Get ready. Line up those Justin Jefferson, Jay Jettas, anytime touchdown bets in week two.
13:03Packers to get right spots after this week one, they get the Jets and the Falcons.
13:08So I expect them to be two and one after the, after week three.
13:12I would agree. Yeah, I agree with that as well.
13:14Quick note. Miles Garrett goes on IR, obviously like the Ram super team.
13:18He was a big part of that. Um, you know, I am operating Debra.
13:22I talked about this with Erickson when we taped the betting pros, uh, week two lines show last night.
13:27I'm just operating as if the Australia game didn't happen.
13:30I, I, there's so much like weirdness with the travel and everything that, um, I, I'm trying to evaluate the Rams, not
13:37taking that game into consideration, but miles Garrett, not being there is a huge factor, right?
13:41That's that is a difference maker in terms of our opinion of this team.
13:45So, um, what are your thoughts on the Rams just as a team in general?
13:49And, you know, maybe we're not calling them the prohibited favorite to win the Super Bowl anymore.
13:54I mean, what are you doing with this information?
13:57I guess is the question. I was very worried about all the off season hype, but the Rams throughout the entire of
14:03the off season, like as top heavy as this roster is again, I don't want to make too many sweeping judgment calls
14:09and stuff based off of one freaking game, especially in division game that those games have always kind of played out weird.
14:15Shanahan's kind of seemed to have McVay's number and stuff.
14:18The thing I will say about miles Garrett, uh, two, two big points here.
14:22One, the Cleveland Browns absolutely unequivocally won that trade like that.
14:25That is a masterclass trade. Like, you know, if you held on to miles Garrett and had any kind of like it,
14:32if Browns fans if they were like, Oh, we should have hold on to miles Garrett.
14:36Maybe we could have got more in season. Oh, this is telling you that that move was very, very good.
14:42Uh, as well as man, what has happened to the news reporting?
14:45Like, can we also talk about just real quickly?
14:48Miles Garrett, like in the broadcast in that game, they're like, Oh yeah, well, you know, I was scared.
14:53It's dealing with a little bit of a knee injury.
14:56Like he's not really in game shape. He's coming in and out.
15:00He's very winded and stuff. Excuse me. Did I just take a nap all off season and wake up in the midst
15:06of a broadcast and week one and all this stuff is just talked about as like common knowledge where it's like, I
15:12excuse me about miles Garrett having a knee issue coming into this at less than a hundred percent being a part-time player, not being himself.
15:19That's all news to me. I'm learning this in real time.
15:22I mean, am I crazy guys? Like they, the Rams kept that undercover.
15:26He wasn't practicing when we first got to LA, right?
15:29Wasn't that the case? Yes, but it was kind of like shrouded in like, you know, we're just going to slow ramp him up and stuff.
15:36None of this knee issue stuff was out there like common knowledge.
15:40And now he's having an injury or he's having surgery.
15:42And again, the media slanting this is it's a minor procedure.
15:46Although we still have no clue what the actual injury is for miles Garrett.
15:50Is it a meniscus? Is it a PC? Like we have no, we don't know.
15:54I mean, maybe it's not just the reporting. I mean, sometimes these teams seem to have a disconnect with the medical.
16:00I mean, Kent Kubiak thought Brock Bowers was going to play.
16:03Oh, that's all media slant. That's all BS. I think there's a disconnect, not just between people like us who are absorbing
16:09the game, but between the coaching staffs and how healthy is this guy actually?
16:13So, I mean, again, I'm not, I'm not, I think that's, I think that's the media carrying the water for the head
16:19coaches on the teams to personally, I'm just saying as well, to make another point, the game in Australia seems a lot less popular.
16:26If you don't have your prize first or trade acquisition playing in that particular game.
16:30Just saying. So, I mean, it's hard. It's hard.
16:33It's not as fun to sell it when miles Garrett is on IR and not playing.
16:38Oh, there's no Aaron Donald or miles Garrett. That's lame.
16:40I'm going to watch something else on Netflix tonight.
16:43Yeah. It's also not great when the, the MVP of last season doesn't look like he's over the hill, but it looks
16:49like he's just staring at the hill again, but that's, he's old.
16:53The travel stuff. Like I need to see a touchdown regression because of course he throws for the most touchdowns last year
16:59and then doesn't throw a touchdown in week. No, no, but to your point, he did look bad.
17:04It wasn't just like, like statistical touchdown regression. Like he looked bad, but again, he's an older player who just was on
17:10a plane, you know, for 17 hours. Like I want to see more weeks before I'm ready to say Stafford's cooked.
17:16By the way, one more note here. Just like a very awesome week one highest scoring week one since the 1970 merger.
17:22That's prior to Sunday night football. I didn't check to see if those numbers changed after Sunday night football, but it was
17:29the highest scoring week one in NFL history since the 1970 merger.
17:32We talked, you know, on the betting show Erickson about unders were the, are the play in week one.
17:38That was not the case yesterday. Do you think this is sort of a sign of things to come for the season?
17:44Like offenses back. There's been a lot of talk in recent years about how defense has been ahead of offenses, or is
17:50this just like a kind of a fluky week one?
17:53And we'll see what happens. I think that week one is probably probably more fluky than anything else.
17:58You're going to see the books adjust and the lines are going to be much higher in week two than they were in week one.
18:05I would say that to make another point, the primetime games went under.
18:09Yes. Those games did not go over the total.
18:11And those ones are the ones that are the most often bet up games because they're primetime and you're watching with your family.
18:18You're not watching anything else. You're all locked in and you're like, I want points.
18:22I want to watch stuff happen in this game.
18:25So don't be like me and lame and bet all the unders on these primetime games.
18:29But if I'd make a bet right now, what's going to happen in Broncos chiefs, just based on how things tend to balance out that game's going under.
18:37There's a primetime game. That's all we've seen is the primetime games go under the project.
18:42Toals were the one o'clock, four o'clock. We're seeing tons of shootout.
18:45Also to your point though, Erickson, it like, I don't want to also get lost too much into the week one of
18:51like high total games all going off. Like the, okay, the bucks and Bengals, that was a high total game.
18:57The saints and lions. That was a high total game.
19:00The rave in the Colts. That was a high total game.
19:03It's also like we did get a stinker out of the Falcons and Steelers, the bears and Panthers.
19:08Yeah. But the bears and Panthers was a high total game.
19:11The Jaguars were massively favorited. Like I like when, when you have two games, when you have a game at course field
19:18for field, that's going over and then bank of America stadium where the Panthers play low key cores light field of the NFL.
19:24Like those games also go over a ton. So I do think it's kind of like the perfect, the planets kind of
19:30aligned for a lot of week one teams just kind of lined up to project for shootouts.
19:35Like let's not get too far away of Wednesday and Thursday being massive under games.
19:39You know what I mean? Like also. I think it's like fluky, maybe in terms of betting, like all the overs and everything like that.
19:47I do think there are a handful of teams that I'm just immediately bought in.
19:51And these are going to be awesome offenses all season.
19:54I think the Ravens, if they're, if those guys are healthy, I think the bears, obviously I think the bills doing what
20:00they did in Houston wildly impressing me. I think the Jags are going to be an awesome offense.
20:05I think there are like a half dozen or so offenses that I think might go like fire breathing dragon on NFL defenses all season long.
20:12That really excites me. It's not going to be every team.
20:16It's not gonna be every games and over. I think there are some really elite offenses this season that I'm really excited to watch.
20:22No, that's all fair. I don't disagree with that.
20:25Can I detour us really, really quickly? Just into a small like question that I had about week one.
20:30Does anybody understand or can make sense out of the, and I don't know if y'all have watched this cause again, I'm bringing this up on the fly.
20:38Can anybody actually talk to me like I'm a five year old and make sense out of the Jarek off play where
20:45that wasn't a scoop and talk like a touchdown where they come on the broadcast and they're like, oh, that was a forward pass.
20:51So it was meant to go forward. It didn't go forward.
20:55Weird. His arm didn't go forward. It goes backwards.
20:57And they're like, yes, but it was meant to be a forward pass.
21:01His arm was supposed to go forward. So it's a forward pass.
21:04Although it didn't actually travel a forward pass to me is supposed to move in a forward direction.
21:09I cannot make any sense out of that play.
21:12The description, the explanation, any of that. I felt like maybe I'm just a homer, but the Saints got wrong.
21:18I don't feel like I've ever heard that description for any call that I can remember.
21:22It felt like made up BS. I'm like, what?
21:25Like we're doing talking intent now. Like, sorry, I didn't intend to fumble the ball.
21:29Therefore, I don't have to give it away. So it doesn't count as a fumble because I meant to hold on to the ball.
21:36Right? Yeah. I threw an interception. I meant to throw to my guy.
21:39That was my intent. Like what? I'm totally with you.
21:42I was wildly confused by this. Erickson. Do you have any thoughts here?
21:46I mean, I was way too preoccupied of, of where Juwan Johnson was for 58 minutes of this game before he showed
21:52up with two minutes left in the fourth quarter.
21:55So that's where my mind was going when it came to the Lions and Saints game.
21:59Juwan Johnson was on the milk carton for like the entire game ends up salvaging not only his receiving yards prop, but he also gets the anytime touchdown.
22:07So, uh, yeah. Juwan Johnson came through. I could not make any sense out of the play.
22:12I just had to bring it up because I've been legit tilting ever since then.
22:16I mean, dude, you should be upset. You should be upset.
22:19It just felt like, like what in the name of made up BS?
22:23And then they get Pereira on the, on the freaking broadcast.
22:26And he's like, Oh yeah. I'm like, dude, you just, you just saying a bunch of nonsense.
22:31Like this doesn't make, I was like, okay, let's spin this however we want to.
22:35But none of this makes any freaking sense. Uh, one last thing, Erickson, give us a very quick update on our tailgate fantasy league, please.
22:43Oh yeah. We are looking at a one and O start for the, the tailgate here.
22:47So very excited about that. Um, we were lucky enough to draw Jamar chase.
22:51And I'm going to sign up two for 12.
22:54So Jamar chase continues his streak of terrible week ones.
22:56So that's just, if you drafted your chase, don't be upset.
23:00This is literally does every single season. He always sucks in week one.
23:03And then he always goes for 200 yards in week two.
23:06So when we buy him back on the Bengals offense going burr in week two, but overall the team didn't nobody like lit up the scoreboard.
23:14I did put Kenneth gain well in instead of Roma duns a because we bullied D bro into drafting Roma duns a, it's fine.
23:21Neither of them were good, but it was fine into the flex.
23:24We had the lines defense going. We had Jared Goff.
23:27So he did enough where yeah, Bukunakua. So not a standup performance by anybody specifically, but overall, uh, we've got enough points
23:33to get the W and I actually want to check if you got, I don't know.
23:38Can you guys pull up that screenshot that I sent you?
23:41Because I, I know I mentioned before my, uh, my slack is not, uh, working.
23:45It's your slack is slacking. Yeah. My slack. I've got the screenshot here.
23:49Dallas Goddard was our best player. Oh, yes. Yes.
23:51Yeah. After one week, it looks like maybe late tight end was the way to go in fantasy this year.
23:57We shall see. Well, it's training bride or yes.
24:00Speaking of milk cartons. We didn't talk about Colson Loveland, but he's still in a milk carton somewhere.
24:05We got, we got more show to get to, uh, Trey McBride was also in our opponent's lineup and we are tight end out.
24:11It's Gordon. So we, uh, we, we won that battle for sure.
24:15There you go. All right. Quick note for everybody.
24:17If you want to win a Todd Gurley signed Rams Jersey, then this is your shot.
24:22All you have to do is subscribe to the tailgate YouTube channel right now.
24:26Drop a comment below on any video. That is it.
24:29We will be announcing a winner right here on the channel.
24:32So make sure to turn on those notifications. So you can know when new videos are up and to claim your prize.
24:38All right, guys, we're going to do on the show week to weekend, by the way, we're open to suggestions from the listeners.
24:45If you guys have ideas of what you want the show to look like, any particular points you want us to hit
24:51on or segments that you are interested in, please let us know.
24:54We want this show to be something that the audience, uh, you know, is enjoying and, and, um, feels like they have
25:01a voice in what we're going to do here is sort of one thing that we each learned this week.
25:06One conclusion that we are drawing from the week's games.
25:09Erickson, I'll start with you. What did you learn in week one?
25:13Bears might have a record breaking offense. Potentially. That's the question that I want to pose now taking on Carolina.
25:18You have to take that into consideration. But the fact that they didn't stop trying to score points when they got to
25:2530, when they got to 40, when they got to 50, 59 points for them to beat the Carolina Panthers.
25:30Ben Johnson knows that his defense can't stop anybody.
25:33And he knows that most teams aren't going to be able to stop this run game.
25:37The fact that they scored 59 points and Colson limited zero catches.
25:41The fact that we talked about this on the betting pro show where I'm where I don't know how much money I
25:47would have bet on if you had told me that this wasn't even a possible scenario where, yeah, the bears are going
25:53to score 59 points and Colson 11 is going to score zero and just do absolutely nothing without an injury and be out there running routes.
26:01I did. He did get some targets. I know Williams missed him on one.
26:05And then he had one in the end zone that was called back on a penalty, I believe.
26:10So wasn't totally uninvolved, but the fact that the past game didn't pop off really at all with any of these receivers,
26:16except for Kalief Raymond, who apparently Ben Johnson bought stock and it didn't tell anybody.
26:20He just said that he bought stock and Luther burden.
26:23I think it's just absolutely crazy. When I saw this box score and I looked up and I was like 59 points.
26:29I just had to do like a double take because he did tell us that he wants to score a lot of points this year.
26:36And I guess I didn't take him seriously. Honestly, I think that, yeah, we got to take them seriously, especially with how bad the Bears defense is.
26:44And it's just like, these are the game scripts they have to go and play in.
26:49So I know we talked about it as the Bears are going to be this year's Bengals or this year's Dallas Cowboys.
26:55I think that just after week one, how is that not cemented that this is what this team is going to be?
27:01Well, and it's particularly crazy because like you said, so much was in the running game, which is not that surprising with
27:07Ben Johnson running things, but like 59 points. And yet Caleb Williams didn't top 300 passing yards, 59 points and no receiver had 100 receiving yards.
27:15Only one receiver had more than 63. Like you look at the box score.
27:19I'm like, how did this add up to 59?
27:21And it's well, they had two running backs get 100 plus each.
27:25And six of those touchdowns were on the ground.
27:27I mean, when you run for almost 300 freaking yards in a game, then you see why they didn't throw anything.
27:33And, you know, I kind of led this off or at least kind of teased this a second ago, but like, I'm
27:40not worried about Colston Loveland at all. I want to be very clear about that.
27:44He had an 84% route share yesterday. He led the entire freaking team and route share.
27:48I'm not worried about Loveland at all. I think this is just a blip on the screen.
27:53By the way, they scored two touchdowns in every quarter.
27:56So this was like just spread out throughout the entire game.
27:59And, and, and to the point of the Bears defense, they gave up almost 500 yards to Bryce Young.
28:05Yep. The Bryce Young. Bryce Young cooking them for three 61, 9.8 yards per attempt, three passing touchdowns.
28:10Ah, Carolina scored 37 points and got blown out.
28:12That's insane. Lord. That just doesn't happen. That that's, that's absolute.
28:15Ben Johnson wants to break records. He might actually do it.
28:18I think it's a good call. Eric. He's going to do it on both sides of the ball.
28:24Actually. But just very quickly, do you guys think maybe we were a little low on Deandre Swift this summer?
28:29Or like, he's not gonna score three touchdowns every game, but.
28:32Wow. It's like, he's not running there. They're not going to run the ball freaking 39 times.
28:37He's not getting one 20. That was the other thing.
28:40We want to zoom out. I've never seen a week or I would have to go pull this up and pro football reference.
28:47I cannot remember a single week in history where as many running backs went for over a hundred yards and hat tricked
28:53as much as we saw like Deandre Swift, Derrick Henry, David Montgomery got a hat trick.
28:57I think what did Ashton Jensie get a hat trick as well?
29:01Like how many running backs just went ham with three touchdowns?
29:04Yeah. Same. I felt like I, I felt like I did come around on Swift as the off season progressed.
29:10I know that I moved him up my rankings just because I was buying more into what this offense could be and
29:16like what these game scripts could be. And I looked at Swift as always finished as a fantasy RB to basically every single year of his career.
29:24And I looked at, well, maybe in this two 2026 bears offense, he can actually crack the top 12 for the first time in his career.
29:31He'd actually joined like Garrett blunt as the last running back to be at RB one for the first time in his
29:37seventh season and how to blunt get there. He scored like 20 touchdowns on the Patriots.
29:42And right now Swift has that role in this offense.
29:45Like they're using him a ton in the red zone.
29:47He left production on the table in this game.
29:50There was more stuff that he could have. Hey, he had a wildcat snap.
29:54He had an explosive run that came back on a penalty.
29:57So I mean, yeah, I mean, you just wanted many pieces of as bears as you can get.
30:02We didn't talk about this at all, but also shout out to Deandre Swift, the paid man getting that, that extension.
30:08Like he's, he's not going to be a free agent to be the bear said, no, we like you.
30:14We're going to keep you around. This is good stuff.
30:16Uh, D bro, let's go to your, what you learned this week.
30:20I had the Dalton Kincaid breakout season might be upon us boys.
30:23Uh, we finally saw Kincaid in a full-time role and surprise, surprise.
30:27He looks immaculate. I mean, dude, he had a 68% route share his highs last year.
30:31He only had five games above, above a 50% route share last, last year.
30:35He played 52% of the snaps high higher. He eclipsed that only once last year.
30:39He played 74% of the snaps in week one, 68% route share, 23% target share.
30:44I mean, I know that we're, we're going to give a caveat of if he stays healthy, but dude, if he stays
30:50healthy, Don't Kincaid might be posting some, I'm not going to go out there and say Trey McBride type of stats, but
30:56I'm not going to be surprised if he does.
30:59Erickson, where are you at on Kincaid looking rest of season?
31:02Do you feel like this was, oh, he's, you know, arriving in a different way and we were too low or are
31:08you more like, Hey, it's one week. Let's kind of see what's happening here.
31:12I think that he and likely were two prime candidates for the late round tight end strategy because where they were going
31:18and you saw the path is for opportunity for these types of players.
31:22Kincaid averaged over 25 yards per catch against the Houston Texans.
31:25It's just like absolutely bonkers. They went for 130 yards on five catches.
31:29That is absolutely insane. And next gen stats had that three of his targets were actually from out wide.
31:34And when he was aligned out wide, he went for 113 yards, which is the most for a tight end.
31:40That was aligned out wide in a single game since Kyle pits did it back in 2021.
31:45So he's showing more of a diverse skill set when he is healthy.
31:48So it's not just him out of the slot.
31:51Like, no, he's moving around a lot. And I think the biggest thing with Kincaid and what's actually helping this passing game
31:57and talking about, well, what was the difference between the bills of the past against this Houston Texans defense is something that
32:04I definitely didn't give enough credit was the addition of DJ more like making it a little bit easier for all the
32:10other pieces in this offense to coexist. I think more being a or the number one receiver in this offense made everything
32:16else easier for the passing game to click on all cylinders with Joe Brady calling the shots.
32:21And I was the head coach, not just the offensive coordinator.
32:24So all in all, like Bill's stock, we could have talked about just Bill's overall is a they're a massive winner after beating Houston.
32:31I thought that the postgame presser or in the locker room, how Josh Allen gave the game ball to Joe Brady and then he took his shirt off.
32:39And it was just like a grand old celebration because, yeah, that's why they moved.
32:43They made the move to Joe Brady because they couldn't get off the shine with Sean McDermott.
32:48They couldn't get over the hump with Sean McDermott.
32:50And at least after week one, you're thinking, man, this team can really beat anybody.
32:55Yeah, I was going to say, and I'm glad you brought him up, like the combo of a healthy Dalton Kincaid and
33:01the addition of DJ more feels like it really changes things like the two of them together.
33:06Not that Josh Allen needs help to be good, but maybe a nuclear season is incoming from him if those guys are healthy and producing all season.
33:13A lot of first time coaches getting wins like their first, like Jesse Minter, Clint Kubiak, Joe Brady.
33:19A lot of guys in their first games ever getting those that, you know, game ball postgame, you know, video clips go out.
33:25Super fun to see my what we learned this week.
33:28I'm just kind of keeping this on the negative side because you guys have done some positive ones.
33:33Non-Bijon Robinson Falcons are suitable until further notice. The quarterback situation is too bad.
33:37I don't care where you drafted Drake London. I don't care where you drafted Kyle Pitts amongst tight ends.
33:42Unless their name is Bijon Robinson, you can sit them until Michael Penix is playing quarterback.
33:47I think even when Tua's back, I'm going to be afraid to play these guys.
33:51Yeah, I don't know if Tua's ever coming back.
33:54I should say if he comes back. But yeah, no, I'm like, ignore the ADP.
33:58Ignore where you took these guys. Well, I invested a second round pick of Drake London.
34:03Sorry, that might have been a mistake. Again, if Penix comes back, I'll feel differently and maybe it'll look differently and it'll still save you.
34:10But until that happens, don't be, you know, beholden to where the draft capital you spent on these guys.
34:15They're both suitable. Bijon is the only non-sittable Falcon.
34:18Debra, what do you think? I am absolutely with you.
34:21I'm reacting in real time to something I just saw that Sean McVeigh came out and said he does not have a
34:27timeline for how many games Miles Garrett will miss after the minor knee procedure, by the way.
34:32But no, I'm totally with you. The Falcons offense looks like an absolute dumpster fire outside of Bijon Robinson.
34:37Like, you can't. Yeah. Oh, and by the way, for everybody that is not aware right now, Kyle Pitts apparently is back
34:43to being a part-time player for the Atlanta Falcons in the year 2026.
34:47Zero? Yep. He had one target? Yep. One target.
34:50One target. Kyle Pitts. Oh, man. Two for 29 for Drake London.
34:53I will say, though, and maybe we'll just tease from the trade show for fantasy pros.
34:57Look, Drake London, when Michael Penix is on our center, is really good.
35:01And right now, Drake London's stock is, like, bottom.
35:04I think that he might be an interesting buy-low player.
35:07Because eventually, Penix is going to come back. It doesn't need to be this week because you can stick on your bench.
35:13Like, yes. But until that happens, don't, again, I think you should feel more than comfortable sitting these guys until that happens.
35:19I've said it before, and I will say it again right now.
35:22Atlanta Falcons, they're cowards. Start Jack Strand. Yeah, I picked him up in two quarterback weeks.
35:27He's the best quarterback on that roster. He's the best quarterback on that roster.
35:31I do. They keep losing games. I don't care.
35:34They have an incentive to play someone just to see.
35:36Yeah. He's better than freaking Tua. He's better than Michael Penix, who can't run anything outside of pistol.
35:42Cooper Rush didn't complete a pass when he was under pressure.
35:45Cooper Rush is bad. Cooper Rush has got all.
35:47Cooper Rush was so bad as Lamar's back last year.
35:50And that it brought back Tyler Huntley. Oh, my God.
35:53That was so horrible. Oh, my God. I heard people out there, and I saw it on social media, like, but Cooper
35:59Rush is surrounded by all these good players. They're like, yeah, he was in Baltimore.
36:03That didn't go well. He was in Dallas. That didn't go well.
36:07He's not good. And that's where they gave B.
36:09John, what, 29 touches because he's so good with all these weapons?
36:13Dude. Yeah. B. John Robinson, I mean, look back at this, right?
36:16Dude, he had almost a 50% target share. Does everybody realize Cooper Rush dropped back and threw 22 passes?
36:22Ten of those went to B. John Robinson. B.
36:24John touched the ball on 66% of his snaps.
36:27Dude, he almost went 100-100 in this first game.
36:29So, yes, I will. The only thing I will say is thank you, Cooper Rush, for keeping the B.
36:35John Robinson 1K, 1K season alive. The hopes are still there, baby.
36:38People were starting to sweat the B. John versus Jamar Chase at two.
36:42That was becoming a question because everyone was afraid of the Falcons.
36:45And at least those people that took B. John number two instead of Chase, at least after week one, I feel okay.
36:51I feel right about the decision. Falcons fans, I'm sorry.
36:54I will say for Falcons players, next two opponents, Carolina, Green Bay.
36:58So maybe some opportunity against those defenses. Jack Strand.
37:00If the quarterback can get them the ball. Football is back, folks.
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39:34All right, guys. Reality check. Another conclusion here from each of us, but we're going to kind of talk out, is this
39:40a legitimate conclusion or an overreaction to what we just saw?
39:43We'll work through that conversation together. Erickson, what is your reality check for the week?
39:48Trevor Lawrence, real MVP candidate. Now, not the favorite because Josh Allen definitely should be the favorite after what he did get to Houston Texans.
39:55But in terms of who's going to be in the conversation all year long, I think that Trevor Lawrence, after a blowout
40:01victory of the Cleveland Browns, where all the shows we did last week on the tailgate.
40:06Again, I'm wrong about tons of things, but last week I was very high on the Jaguars.
40:10I said, take the Jaguars, laying the points. Take the Jaguars, laying two touchdowns.
40:14Trevor Lawrence is not going to score one, two, three, four touchdowns.
40:18And that's exactly what he did. And it didn't take all four quarters for him to get there.
40:23So I think that this Jags offense is the real deal when he has all of these weapons to work with.
40:29He's a surplus of weapons from the tight ends to the running backs to the wide receivers.
40:34They don't even need to use all these guys every single week, but there's just so much depth.
40:39And I think that and maybe we'll have to resurface Trevor Lawrence as a talking point next week because it's a much
40:45tougher matchup next week on the road at Denver.
40:48But we saw him do this before. He went to Denver last year.
40:51The Jaguars beat the Denver Broncos and Trevor Lawrence diced up that defense.
40:55So we'll see if the travel going to Denver.
40:58I know Worm, obviously you're from Denver. You know that the altitude has a effect on how these NFL athletes will play.
41:04But if that doesn't end up causing the Jaguars to fall on their face, I think this is an upset spot for
41:10them, especially with the Denver Broncos playing on a short week, playing tonight on Monday night football.
41:15Jaguars feeling good riding the high from even last year where they broke out in the second half of that season.
41:21So I think that Trevor Lawrence is the real deal.
41:24I think this is a legitimate conclusion. I'm curious what Debro thinks.
41:27It is funny that you mentioned Josh Allen. I think there were like four or five quarterbacks this week where I was
41:33like, wow, what a strong statement MVP case here in week one.
41:37And then it's like, oh, so did that guy.
41:39So did that guy. So did that guy. Like Allen was amazing.
41:43Lamar was. I texted my buddy. Obviously, I'm a Ravens fan.
41:46I texted my buddy who's a Ravens fan too during the game.
41:49I was like, I've seen enough. Like with Declan Doyle, Lamar Jackson, if he stays healthy, is winning the MVP.
41:55And then Josh Allen went out and did what he did.
41:58And then Trevor Lawrence had four touchdowns. Caleb Williams' team scores almost 60 points.
42:02There was just so many great performances in week one.
42:05Even going back to Thursday, Brock Purdy, I thought, looked awesome.
42:08And maybe this is the year he gets a little bit more credit.
42:12So yeah, it's tough to say like, oh, Trevor Lawrence is going to win MVP because there's so many other really good players there.
42:19Joe Burrow is also still third in odds on bettingpros.com.
42:21I don't really get it. He didn't like that.
42:24That didn't seem like he was the reason they won that game or anything.
42:28Not that he was bad. But at any rate, lots of good names there.
42:32But I thought Lawrence looked as good as any of them, Debro.
42:35Trevor, I'll just say this right now. With my reaction, I'll start this off right now, that I am betting Trevor Lawrence's
42:42MVP odds right now at the seventh longest. He has the longest odds of any of those names I just mentioned, right?
42:48That's part of this too. Yeah, dude. What is it now?
42:51Plus 1400 consensus on bettingpros.com. Yeah, you can find it other places.
42:54Yeah, but like consensus plus 1400. Allen's plus 450.
42:57Lamar plus 650. Burrow plus 900. Caleb plus 800.
42:59Mahomes and Purdy are both in that same range as well as with Trevor Lawrence.
43:04Yeah, so yes. Because here's the thing and the caveat to all this.
43:07He has these long odds right now. If he goes out and he does the damn thing against the Broncos, those odds are changing.
43:14Then people are going to say, oh, it's not just the Browns.
43:18He's going to go up. He'll be like top three in the odds if he goes and handles business versus Denver.
43:24So I think this is real too. And also shout out to everybody here.
43:28Parker Washington being a dude, being a number one wide receiver, being their elite number one wide receiver.
43:33Also, congrats to Parker Washington because the size of that contract prior to week one and the size of that contract now, it's going to go up, baby.
43:41So he could have had a monster game, but Jaguars were just like, we don't need to do anything with this.
43:47Like this is not a competitive football game. And to like, to quantify to what Trevor Lawrence did again, and we all
43:53saw four touchdowns, but this wasn't like he was dinking and dunking and the Browns were missing tackles.
43:58Like he was just an assassin down the field.
44:0110 of 11 passes for 179 yards, three touchdowns, all on throws of 10 plus air yards.
44:05I got to pull up as a dot. Ripping the Browns defense down the field and the Browns have good perimeter cornerbacks.
44:12Like they have guys, they have personnel. So I know the Browns defense isn't as good when they play on the road
44:18as they do at home, but they still have good personnel and it didn't matter because he was nearly flawless.
44:24And 11.3 a dot to your point, which just for everybody at home was third in week one behind only Malik Willis
44:30and Josh Allen amongst all qualifying quarterbacks. Same a dot as Lamar.
44:33It is just so funny. Cause I'm like, you're saying all these stats, like, yeah, he like, he's incredible.
44:39I'm sold. I'm like, but, but Allen was amazing too.
44:42And Lamar was amazing too. And yeah. Well, but that's why it's going to come down to a lot of these head
44:48to head matchups and like who wins in these games.
44:51Like if it is, where it's like pretty even between them all, like Lawrence will get, uh, you know, preference just because he hasn't won before.
44:58And you know, Josh and Lamar have combined for three like that.
45:01So the tiebreaker will go to the new blood typically.
45:04Well, and also if you're going to the betting markets, two of those guys are plus 450 and plus 650.
45:10Uh, one of these guys is plus 1500 on some books.
45:13So it's spot on. Yeah. Debra, what's your reality check?
45:16Like is cam board and unequivocal bust. And I, I know this is after just one week, but I'm lumping this together
45:22with a horrible, wretched and God awful preseason where cam word looked lost.
45:26Like when I'm watching the all 22 in preseason and we're seeing vanilla zone coverage, simple safety rotations were pre-snap.
45:32Cam Ward thinks he gets single high. He checks, he's going to hit the go route on the outside immediately post snap.
45:38He drops back. They drop into too high and he looks like he has lost, like just absolutely lost.
45:43He's jittery. He's patting the ball. Like he's trying to burp a baby.
45:47Like, and then he goes out versus the freaking jets guys.
45:5059.3% completion rate, 4.4 yards per attempt. He directed an offense that had 4.0 yards per play.
45:55Is he a bust? Cause I, I, I'm having a, I'm having a really tough time seeing the light and seeing some hope.
46:01You said in your, when you first posed this question, unequivocal bust, I can't use that word, but it doesn't look good.
46:08Like I, I can't put the nail in the coffin yet, but I, I certainly lean more bust than not bust at the moment.
46:14It Erickson, what do you think? Yeah. My only hesitation with the Titans, cause I was very high on them in terms of, okay.
46:21I like them as a dark horse to be one of these teams that goes from worst to first in the division.
46:28And the one thing that was always holding me back from being even more bullish on that type of long shot was the offensive line, the Tennessee Titans.
46:35And it's horrible. Cam Ward was constantly under duress against the New York jets, right?
46:40This isn't some like super dynamic Seattle Seahawks, Houston Texans defense.
46:43Yeah. They got some new personnel. Aaron Glenn is a defensive minded head coach.
46:47So yeah, they're going to throw some stuff at him.
46:50But when you're at home and you're pressured on almost 50% of your dropbacks against a brand new jets team.
46:55Like, and again, that's not also all on the offensive line when you're holding onto the ball and not making your reads then.
47:02And yeah, it just, it's very stark to me looking at Cam Ward and then watching Jackson dart, both year two quarterbacks
47:08dart in full command of his offense. That's also new for him too, with Matt Nagy and Greg Roman.
47:14And I was immediately just watching that Giants game and just thinking the entire time I chose the wrong dark horse long shot to win their division.
47:21And I should have picked the Giants and not the Tennessee Titans.
47:25Like that was my immediate reaction after Sunday or one of them was picking the wrong team.
47:29So I still think the Giants probably have some decent odds to win the NFC East.
47:34And I think it could potentially be a two man race between them and the Eagles if Dallas doesn't get their ish together.
47:41To your point, Erickson, Cam Ward pressured on 46.2% of his dropbacks.
47:44And Warren, before you weigh in here, if he doesn't look like a bus now, please tell me, do we feel better
47:50after he faces an upcoming schedule of the Eagles, Giants, Ravens?
47:53It's remarkable. Yeah, go ahead. You walk the schedule with us.
47:56Walk the schedule with us and tell me if we should feel any better about Mr.
48:01Ward. From here on, they place the Eagles at the Giants at Baltimore, the Texans at the Colts.
48:06They get the Browns. That might be a win.
48:09Okay. Is it at home or is it in Cleveland?
48:12It's home. It's in Tennessee. Okay. But then they're at Cincinnati.
48:15Then they have a bye. And then they go Jacksonville, Dallas at Jacksonville.
48:18This schedule through November, they're going to be one in 10 at best.
48:22They're going to need to win that Cleveland game to get a win this season.
48:26Even after that, it's Washington, Detroit, Indianapolis. So Mitch Trubisky, are you making starts this year?
48:31What are the Giants' odds to win the division?
48:33I want to move. I just want to cash out.
48:36I love that you have no hope for Cam Moore that you just left that in the rear view and you're just like, okay, what about the Giants?
48:44Well, what about the Giants? I've been to check on all the Titans stuff, put it into the Saints after they lose
48:50against the Ravens, put them on the Saints because that's another long shot that you've got to take.
48:56And yeah, the Giants did not give them enough credit.
48:58Consensus right now on bettingpros.com. I get longer than 3-1, honestly.
49:02I'm fine with that. It's plus 375 is the consensus.
49:04I think that's... Done. I like that. Okay, done.
49:07After the Cowboys looking like they did not actually fix their defense in the offseason.
49:11Real quick, just last point on Cam Ward. We're probably going to see Mitch Trubisky start games this year then, boys.
49:17Yeah, that is rough. It's a bad start. It's a bad upcoming schedule.
49:21Do you think he gets benched? I mean, I don't think Trubisky is going to be much better behind a bad offensive line.
49:27This coaching staff did not draft him. They are not tied to Cam Ward.
49:31Ryan Able did not draft him either. Sala didn't either.
49:34Bob Sala didn't either. If we are like, okay, he is clearly not...
49:38If you go through half this season and he is clearly not the answer for this franchise, then we go into tank mode and it's...
49:45True. All right, what quarterback are we looking at in the draft?
49:48Yeah, Mitch Trubisky is your tank quarterback. I mean, listen, Cam Ward might be your tank quarterback the way he has looked.
49:55Nah, dude, I don't know, man. Mitch Trubisky is pretty bad.
49:58I said might. I said might. You might. I mean, here's what we're all kind of describing, though.
50:03The difference in that quarterback play might not be that far, though.
50:06All right, let me do my reality check here.
50:09That's so sad. I'll do this kind of quickly.
50:11Declan Doyle, Ravens offensive coordinator, is going to become the youngest head coach in NFL history this January.
50:17I just was really impressed with his first game calling plays.
50:20We know he has the pedigree in terms of Sean Payton and Ben Johnson have both spoken very highly of working with him.
50:26He comes from this offensive system that people want their hands on now.
50:30We know that young offensive coordinators, like everybody wants to find the next Sean McVay or Ben Johnson.
50:35He, if he is hired in January, so the Ravens, you know, losing in the playoffs to make him available and he
50:41becomes a head coach, he will be younger than Sean McVay was when McVay became the youngest head coach in history.
50:47If the Ravens make the Super Bowl, then it's going to come down to like literally what day he gets hired in
50:54February if he like would break the record or not.
50:56But the point is, I think the Ravens are only getting one year with this guy.
51:01I was wildly impressed and I think that Lamar, assuming Lamar is healthy, is going to be good enough this year that
51:07even if, even if some of it is, smoke and mirrors isn't the right word, but like Doyle, Doyle will get sort
51:13of his reputation will rise because he's playing with Lamar and getting to coach Lamar.
51:18But I also think he's got the goods and I was just, their explosive play rate was like one of the best the Ravens have had in years.
51:26That's despite being a very good offense in recent years.
51:29Um, I, I just thought he looked, it looked really, really good.
51:32Um, and I was really impressed and I think he's going to be a head coach, uh, this time in like five months.
51:38Erickson, what do you think? Couldn't agree more. I think that this is a cosine for me.
51:43Nothing else to add. I want to clean sweep this and I want to follow this up real fast.
51:49Where is his destination? Cause I got two right off the top of my head right now.
51:54So I want to throw these out there and I'm going to give you guys some time to look at any other positive destinations.
52:00Maybe I'm overlooking looking stuff. The New York jets or the Washington commanders.
52:04Oh yeah. With Daniels. Yeah. The jets were in my mind.
52:07The commanders were not. That's a good call. You're Declan Doyle.
52:10You're, you're not going to New York, dude. You do not, you stay away from New York as long as you can.
52:17And you get Jane Daniels. I mean, he said that he took the Ravens job in large part because of Lamar.
52:23So really the correct answer is which team is getting a high draft pick and he's going to be able to pick
52:29his quarterback with like maybe that's the jets. If you like to get the number one pick and he loves Archie Manning, right?
52:35Maybe it's the Browns. If Todd Munkin is one and done.
52:38I mean, I mean like Miami and Arizona, it wouldn't surprise me.
52:42I mean, no Arizona one, but like wouldn't surprise me if those teams ended up going one and done with their coaches.
52:48Like, I don't think they will, but we have seen that happen more in recent years than we did before Tennessee.
52:54Same thing. If they get an early pick. So I think where those early picks go will matter.
52:59I want to, I want to throw another fun one out there.
53:03If this team disappoints this year, can you imagine him coaching the Cincinnati Bengals?
53:07Oh, I'm actually mad you brought that up because I really don't want that to happen.
53:11That would terrify me in the division. I don't honestly say I'm giving him like nightmares right now in real time.
53:17Yeah. If they didn't just give him an extension, I was going to say maybe Green Bay too, but like they did just extend the floor.
53:24Yeah. There is frustration. Yeah. No, I think that Washington calls is really good.
53:28Actually. I, I think that's, that's a fun one.
53:31Yeah. No, but for your reality check, I think this is a reality.
53:35And I hate it. I wish we could get multiple years with him, but he's, I think he's got the juice.
53:41Toil to the Bengals. Come on. Let's make it happen.
53:44Let's go. I just want to see it because I want to see Worm and Payne over it.
53:49Last segment we're going to do, we're going to change up this segment week to week.
53:53We're going to try and come up with something fun to wrap up the show on a week to week basis.
53:59This week, we're just doing an early stock watch here.
54:02We're each going to have a stock up and a stock down.
54:05We can move a little quicker through these because we have so many names to get through.
54:10And these can be players. They can be coaches.
54:13They can be narratives. They can be teams. You know, we largely went with players, but we got a team in there
54:19and a narrative in there as well. So we'll see what you guys think.
54:23Erickson, we'll start with you. What's your stock up?
54:26Christian Watson, wide receiver one season for the Green Bay Packers.
54:29Good thing about having Micah Parsons is they're letting Jordan Love cook a little bit.
54:33No Josh Jacobs. So they're throwing the ball a little bit more.
54:36Don't know how long this offensive line is going to hold up for Green Bay, but in the aggregate, in the meantime,
54:43it's going to be Christian Watson just dominating. Six catches, eight targets, 147 yards, two touchdowns, 81 yards score on Green Bay's
54:49first offensive touchdown of the day against the Minnesota Vikings.
54:52He caught four of his five targets for 131 yards and the two touchdowns on vertical routes against the Vikings.
54:57So Christian Watson was a player that I think that we all kind of like collectively at Fantasy Pros this year.
55:03He was a player that I thought was of those breakout wide receivers in that range of, it was like Watson and Parker Washington, right?
55:10Like those are the two guys. And then I was always torn when someone was like, who do I draft?
55:16I'm like, oh, like I like them both so much.
55:19Like you really can't make the right. Both. The answer is both.
55:22Just try to get both of them on your team.
55:25So it's interesting because Watson is the first Packers wide receiver with over 100 receiving yards and multiple receiving touchdowns in a single game since week 10, 2022.
55:332022, who do you think was the last receiver to do it for Green Bay?
55:37100 yards, two touchdowns. In 2022? Or are you saying it wasn't?
55:41That's the last time it happened was 2022. For the Packers.
55:44Or that's the last time it happened for any Packers.
55:47No, I know it's not. I know it's not going to be a name that I think you're baiting us.
55:53I think it's Al Mazzard. No, it's Christian Watson.
55:55Okay. There you go. See? I knew this was a trick question.
55:59It just goes to show how high this guy's ceiling is and how talented he is now that just fingers crossed that
56:05he is healthy and good to go. The fact that he didn't come off rehabbing a season-ending injury entering this season.
56:11I think this dude is off to the races.
56:13And the fact that he did all this damage and Matthew Golden was the one that actually led the team in targets.
56:20I was going to say, Goldenstock could have been up too.
56:23Yes. For sure. Packers passing game really is like the takeaway here because there's no Josh Jacobs.
56:28They were fine running a committee with Lloyd and Chris Brooks, which is gross that Brooks started the game.
56:33I was all in on Jordan Love this year as a late-round quarterback too for this exact reason.
56:38Going back to just do the quarterback depth, man.
56:41As good as Josh Allen was, there were so many quarterbacks who could get when the last pick.
56:46Like a Jordan Love. Just ugh. Absolutely. So many leagues.
56:49I took Love and Willis back-to-back in like rounds 10 and 11 and just like loaded up also before.
56:54And it just felt like the play. And Debro's point about when we talked about the Packers and their upcoming schedule, why
57:00is this passing game not going to continue to cook?
57:03Especially if the defense is struggling without Michael Parsons.
57:06By the way, there were four receivers in Fantasy Bros ADP in round six this year.
57:10Christian Watson, Parker Washington, Mike Evans, who looks very good, and Roma Doonesy, who didn't have the best game but is in
57:16this awesome offense that's going to score a lot of points.
57:20Like that was a good round to be drafting a receiver.
57:23Yeah. Yeah, Debro, we got so many questions last week about Watson versus Parker Washington for week one starts.
57:28And we said both. We said both. But you did say...
57:31We said both. And both was the right answer.
57:34You would go Watson and you were right about that.
57:37So... Yes. Yeah. Yeah. Watson, dude, he looks so good too.
57:40That catch and run where he just bursted up the sideline and guys are trying to like just falling off of him
57:46and he takes it to the house for 81 yards.
57:49And I'm just like, oh baby! Let's go! Let's go!
57:52Last year. Christian Watson. All pro vote. Last year.
57:54He will be a top-level receiver this year. He was awesome.
57:57I feel really strong about that. Just the health.
58:00He's Christian Watson looking like a dude, baby. Love it.
58:03Debro, you're stuck up. Ashton Gentry. Speaking of guys looking like dudes, Ashton Gentry looked like all of the rookie hype and
58:09the hope that we had for last year. That ankle looks pretty good, boys!
58:13Like, week one, 29 touches, 147 total yards, and the big, big takeaway for me was the pass game utility.
58:19Ashton Gentry gets 45 receiving yards, 2.25 yards per route run.
58:22Oh. It's just... He looks like the discount you got because of the ankle injury is going to really matter in fantasy leagues this year.
58:29I will say, I'm toying with the idea of instituting a rule on this show throughout the season that we're not allowed
58:35to award stock up to anybody who just played the Dolphins.
58:38The Dolphins are, like, maybe going to go 0-17, and so, like, that is in the back of my mind.
58:44Having said that, you're right. It's the usage. It's how he looks.
58:47The ankle. Like, I'm totally with you on Gentry, but I also am like, this was Miami.
58:52Just in the back of my mind. I mean, dude.
58:55No, I get it. I get it. That caveat is real.
58:58I understand it. I mean, the fact that he's healthy is the biggest thing, in my opinion, right?
59:03Like, just their ankle doesn't... Again, that doesn't matter who his defense is, right?
59:07If he's playing on a bum ankle, it's going to be very clear by his inability to force broken tackles, but that wasn't the case here.
59:15More to the pass game utility. This is my biggest takeaway.
59:1821.3% of his routes were from the slot or out wide, boys.
59:21D-Bro, they're not going to win enough games for this to actually happen, I don't think.
59:26But can I talk you into a little 40-1 action on Ashton Gentry, Offensive Player of the Year?
59:31I can't just because they're not going to win enough games.
59:34It has to be on a good team. Has to be on a good team.
59:38The player that wins that has to be on a good team.
59:42I think, too, his receiving was always going to get a boost without Bowers in a lineup.
59:46Well, if Bowers misses more time than expected... Yeah, but even when Bowers comes back...
59:51But you could make the idea that he's the best receiver in this game for the Raiders.
59:56Yeah. He won't be when Bowers is back. Fair.
59:58Yeah, that's true. No, that's fair. But still. Who else is threatening Bowers and Gentry in that passing attack?
60:04Oh, nobody. I'm not saying that this hurts Gentry, but what I'm saying from Offensive Player of the Year perspective, I would rather bet on Bowers.
60:11I got you. Honestly. Michael Mayer, outside of the ridiculous contract that the Raiders gave him, is not Brock Bowers, just in
60:17case the Raiders aren't aware of this. My stock up is Isaiah Likely.
60:21He looked awesome in his debut for the Giants.
60:23Obviously, John Harbaugh brought him over from Baltimore. We talked about late tight end is the play.
60:28Guys like Dallas Goddard we liked. Guys like Dalton Kincaid is an upside swing.
60:32Isaiah Likely, I think early, was a really popular late tight end guy.
60:36Kind of, I think, fell under the radar a bit later in draft season.
60:40At least I felt like there was, you know, people were hyping up Juwan Johnson instead.
60:44Or again, guys like Kincaid. Likely ended up as tight end 12, but going outside the top 100 picks by Fantasy Pros ADP.
60:51And he was terrific. And obviously Malik Neighbors is going to shake off more and more rust as we get further into the season.
60:58But likely Neighbors really complement each other in terms of their skill sets, I feel like.
61:02And for me, the reason that I point to him as a stock up isn't just the stat line, eight catches, 78 yards, and two touchdowns.
61:10I was really impressed with Jackson Dart. I had been pretty low on Dart the player throughout the summer.
61:15I thought he looked really good watching that game.
61:18And if Dart is very good, that's just going to create more opportunities for the best receivers on this team, which I
61:24think are clearly Neighbors and Likely over the course of the season.
61:27So I think Likely is going to get a ton of red zone usage in this offense.
61:32I think if Dart is good, he's going to get a ton of volume just amongst tight ends.
61:37And I'm not putting him in that Bowers, Loveland, I know, bad game McBride tier.
61:42But I think we might be two weeks away from saying, oh, he's comfortably like a top six or seven tight end rest of season.
61:49I was really impressed. We've always said he just needed the opportunity.
61:52Not in the same tight end room as Mark Andrews.
61:55He's now getting that opportunity. I think we're in for a really, really fun Isaiah Likely or Erickson.
62:00I'm so on board with this. He only played 49% of snaps and he had caught all of his ATAR.
62:06He was perfect. Like you were bearing the lead.
62:08He was perfect for the New York Giants in week one against the Dallas Cowboys.
62:13Two touchdowns doing everything that this passing attack needed.
62:15And they moved him all over the formation. So again, giving more credit to guys like Matt Nagy and Greg Roman, who
62:21I was really low on entering the soft season.
62:24They moved him all around. 11 in line. Five out wide.
62:27Two backfield for Isaiah Likely. And he was moving all over the place.
62:31And he was under 50% of the snaps. So there's still a chance where his role can grow in this offense where
62:37he can take on an even bigger part of the pie.
62:40Malik neighbors only pay 52% of the snaps. So going back to, yeah, the Giants.
62:44I think that we got to take them for real because of the quarterback.
62:48Because of what this offense could do and what we've seen from them so far in week one against the Dallas Cowboys.
62:55So, yeah. Isaiah Likely. I wrote a lot of my guys' articles this year.
62:59He was the perfect storm tight end type of approach.
63:01Likely was a player that I really liked a lot.
63:04I know I have him on a bunch of teams.
63:07So I was giddy seeing him targeted at a hyper rate.
63:10Jacksoner was always looking for him. And you just look at the other receivers on this team.
63:15Again, Malachi Fields popped a little bit. But Darnell Mooney, Odell Beckham Jr., those guys aren't going to command significant target shares in this offense.
63:22So I like Lee. Yeah, dude. I mean, like the better he looks and the worse that Mark Andrews looks, it's just
63:28it's like this weird parallel of why the Ravens decided to extend the wrong guy.
63:33And it was like so clearly. You're just twisting the knife on Warren right now.
63:37You're just twisting the knife. I don't get it.
63:40Like I literally do not understand why they're like, oh yeah, we got to sign Andrews.
63:44And it's like likely walk even though it's so clear who's better.
63:47In the moment, the reason I was okay with it, and I didn't like it in the moment.
63:53You might recall in the moment I was not happy.
63:55But the reason I was like allowing, like I was okay with it at least is I thought there was going to
64:02be a bigger gap in their contracts. I felt like, oh, well, likely as a young ascending player, he's going to make a lot more money.
64:09That's why they felt like, oh, well, we know maybe he's not as good.
64:13He's on the decline. But at least we can get a guy Lamar's really comfortable with, et cetera, et cetera.
64:19Likely getting basically the same contract as Andrews makes this just baffling to me.
64:23And it might be a season-defining decision if Flowers does end up banged up for longer than we expect in no Jacoby Lane.
64:29Like having a guy like Likely would really change things for Baltimore with all those receiver injuries.
64:34Having Andrews isn't moving the needle. At least it doesn't look.
64:37Andrews looked so, so washed in that game. But yeah, I'm crushed by this decision.
64:41But final point on Likely is despite the snap share being down, he had a 70% route share.
64:47And that's what matters. So like to Erickson's point, if the snaps come up just a tick more, maybe he's sniffing like an 80% route share.
64:54And I'll just take a – I've stretched previously, so I'll take a small victory lap here.
64:59I'm old enough to still remember when people said Jackson Dart was not a first-round quarterback.
65:03Andrew Cooper, friend of the show, had a tweet about an hour ago.
65:07Isaiah likely ran 91.6% of his routes from a receiver spot last night and had a first-read target share of 31.8%.
65:13He was used basically like prime Andrews or it's the examples that Cooper uses.
65:17Yeah. Yeah, it was almost 70% slot, 21% out wide.
65:20He was only in line for 8% of the snaps.
65:23He was a wide receiver. We all know this.
65:25And he was the guy that was puffing him up last year and then likely didn't get the contract from the Ravens
65:31because he got hurt at the beginning of last season.
65:34And that kind of derailed the contract. And obviously the Ravens moving on from Harbaugh.
65:39So just this connection, Harbaugh's the heist on his own.
65:41I'm ready to get dangerous. Like I think truly like possible league winner level season from Likely.
65:46Well, I remember when you were talking about on the Dynasty show, I'm pretty sure you were like Likely over Sadiq.
65:52Yes. Like just kind of looking like you could see a scenario where Likely is going to be going ahead of someone like.
65:59Fitz and Bogman pushed back on my aggressive Likely ranking.
66:02But I said in Dynasty, this was like a few months ago, but I thought there was a chance.
66:07Yeah, it was a while ago. I said I think there's a chance that he's at the top of the tier two
66:13of tight ends of Dynasty by the end of the season.
66:16That's best case scenario. It would take a great season to get there.
66:20I was not guaranteeing that, but I thought that was on the table.
66:24And obviously a great start for that. So far, so good.
66:27There was a lot of residual Theo Johnson truthers out there, you know, pushing back about like, I'm like, what is Theo
66:33Johnson showing you in his career to make you believe that much?
66:37Yeah, really excited. And again, he's also only 26.
66:39Like tight ends, their primes come later. So like I really like Likely.
66:43Let's go pretty quickly here on the stock downs because we are up against the clock.
66:47Erickson, who is your stock down? Uh, the Los Angeles Chargers and anybody that took them in the survivor picks.
66:53Wall. Yeah. When you lose against the Arizona Cardinals as 10 and a half point favorites at home, you can't not be a stock down.
67:00So obviously in the game itself, some things didn't work in their favor.
67:04Turnovers. That's how usually these upsets happen. But the fact that their offense didn't come out as firing as what we mostly
67:10expected, what the market was expecting was obviously disappointing.
67:13Losing Lab McConkie definitely hurt in the second half of the game because at the start of it, it like, oh man,
67:19like Ladd will look clearly ahead of everyone else on the depth chart for the wide receivers.
67:24He was cooking. I think Herbert and his first four passes had 72 yards passing, just like ripping the Arizona Cardinals defense to shreds.
67:31Then Ladd gets banged up, which unfortunately is part of his profile.
67:34Like the guy is constantly banged up as a more of an undersized wide receiver.
67:38And then the fourth quarter, the Chargers didn't really have a lot of answers for, I think, an underrated Arizona Cardinals defense.
67:44We talked about them, their defensive line, how they added a lot of depth this offseason.
67:49The fact that they're not as injured as they were last year.
67:52That was part of the reason why they were so bad last year was just they had so many injuries on the defensive side of the football.
68:00And maybe they weren't getting enough credit for revamping, being healthier.
68:03So Chargers obviously going to get stock down here.
68:06Cardinals deserve to stock up for playing a lot better than most people would give them credit for.
68:11But I do think the Chargers will bounce back.
68:13It's the first game with Justin Herbert and Mike McDaniel.
68:16But the Ladd McConkie injury obviously had a big impact because clearly they built a lot of their passing attack out of what he could do.
68:24So, Debra, I'll keep it quick, but I know you were kind of worried about the Chargers a little bit anyway.
68:30Hmm. Yeah, I was I was more skeptical about the Chargers when there was all this like hope and hype and stuff.
68:36And I threw this stat out in the preseason.
68:38And I don't think everybody kind of like realized what I was kind of talking about here.
68:43Just for everybody just to understand, is it really Mike McDaniel that's so awesome?
68:47Or is it the fact that Mike McDaniel had Tyreek Hill?
68:50Because if you look at the on-off splits with Tyreek Hill for the Miami Dolphins 2022 to 2025, with Tyreek Hill in
68:57the field, EPA per play, seventh best. EPA per drop back, sixth best.
69:00Success rate, tenth best. Without Tyreek Hill, in those same three statistical categories, 27th, 27th, 23rd.
69:05So, is every Mike McDaniel hope and hype tweet really just more respect that should have been given to Tyreek Hill?
69:11We're going to find out, boys. We are going to find out.
69:14Debra, who's your stock down? Is it time to just give up hope for Marvin Harrison Jr.?
69:19I mean, we're walking out of week one. He got out-targeted by Trey McBride, Michael Wilson, Jeremiah Love.
69:24Oh, no, those are big shockers. Oh, wait, Kendrick Bourne says hi as well.
69:28Marvin Harrison Jr. had 33 receiving yards. He basically just played—he was the field stretcher.
69:32He had a 23 ADOT. He had an 8.1% target share and a 7.4% first read share.
69:37I—is it—is it the point where we just say Marvin Harrison Jr.
69:41will never be the person or the player that we were hoping he was going to be?
69:46It is time to just sell, sell, sell. I also kind of believe that he is still being put in the role that is not suited to him.
69:54If I'm the Raiders, I call the Arizona Cardinals right now.
69:57I trade for Marvin Harrison Jr. and I put him into the Drake London role and would see what he can do.
70:03But I doubt that happens. So, ugh. This was tough.
70:06I don't want it to be true. Not a great start to my—I went into the season saying I'm going to give him one more chance.
70:13Like, one last ride, one last opportunity to show something.
70:16Are you off now after week one? I'm not— Are you, like, done?
70:20I'm not wired to be off on anybody after just one week, but it is a discouraging start through it.
70:25I think I'm more on the other side of things.
70:28I'm not sure what else more we need to see in terms of how is he going to be in a different role.
70:35That's totally fine. I'm done. I'm done. With the Cardinals offense with the way that's being deployed where Michael Wilson is in that Z role.
70:42So he's getting more of the underneath stuff. Michael Wilson still had nine targets in this game, despite Kendrick Warren seeing a
70:48ton of all— Kendrick Warren was just eating up underneath, like out of the slot.
70:52It's so clear what these roles are defined as.
70:55And Harrison is the ex-field stretcher. And to give him credit, the catch he made was really good.
71:00Like, he made a really nice, over-the-shoulder 33-yard gain, but that's not good for fantasy.
71:04Like, he can be an okay real-life wide receiver for the Arizona Cardinals, but in terms of where he falls for fantasy
71:11football purposes, where he falls and how important he is to the Cardinals passing attack, it's just not nearly as important.
71:17And because he is a leftover from previous coaching staffs— I get that it's the same GM, but Monte Allison for it necessarily hasn't.
71:23I don't know how long his leash is as the Arizona Cardinals GM, considering how dysfunctional the franchise has been.
71:29They don't have an allegiance to, or we have to feature Marvin Harrison Jr.
71:33It's like, nope, like he's going to be our ex-receiver, field stretcher, and when we give him opportunities— I mean, he also had a drop in this game.
71:41Like, one of the first passes, it was like, all right, let's get Harrison going and drop, right?
71:46So, I don't think we've seen it with Jacoby as well.
71:49I think Jacoby has rapport with Michael Wilson. Jacoby has rapport with Kendrick Warren, dating back to when they played in New
71:55England together, and obviously has rapport with Trey McBride.
71:58So, Harrison's competing with, like, the running backs for targets.
72:01Yeah, it's not happening, unless he goes to a different team.
72:04I'm not out. I'm not putting the nail in the coffin.
72:07I am down, though. I don't disagree with that at all.
72:10This stock down, I think, is super valid, and I'm on board with it.
72:14He's been played in the absolutely wrong role for the entirety of his NFL career.
72:18Like, I'll say it again. He should be in the Drake London role.
72:22He should be in a 50%, like, in the slot, out wide, chain mover, let him go beat up, like, nickel corners.
72:28Like, and that has never been what they've done with him, ever.
72:32I think with Harrison, though, I don't think he's even— he's not as good as after the catch, though.
72:37Like, that's the thing. Like, at least London, I feel like, can do more.
72:41No, that's fine. London can do way more after the catch.
72:44He could be your possession guy. It's like, yeah, you want to make him a possession receiver, but then he doesn't create yards after the catch.
72:52So now you're running into another issue of, okay, he's still now a limited player even when we're putting him into a
72:58more ideal role for his skill set. So, yeah.
73:01All right. My stock down is the running back dead zone narrative.
73:04I don't know when exactly the dead zone starts, for your guys' opinion in drafts, but some of the names that you
73:10could make a case are in that dead zone, like rounds three to five or six range, however you define it.
73:16But Javante Williams, multiple touchdowns last night. Brees Hall, good first game it was against the Titans, of course.
73:22I thought Bucky Irving looked good. DeAndre Swift was in this dead zone.
73:25Obviously a huge game from him, and we were saying he might be a little undervalued.
73:30Cam Scadaboo scores a touchdown coming back from injury.
73:32We think the Giants might be pretty good. Yeah.
73:35I think that's obviously the biggest name of the dead zone running backs you listed because I think some of them are
73:41– Can I just name off some running backs that went everywhere in real-time ADP from 32nd overall to 65th?
73:47Yeah. Brees Hall, Travis E. Chan, DeAndre Swift, Cam Scadaboo, Bucky Irving, David Montgomery, and we'll throw in Basial Tootin and Ramondre Stevenson for good luck there.
73:55Yeah, and to Erickson's point, Montgomery, like a huge standout there, I think.
73:58I mean, Swift too, I would say as well.
74:01But yeah, my point is stocked out and it's like, hey, maybe it was okay to invest in running backs in this
74:07range, especially when you can get guys like Christian Watson and Parker Washington a couple rounds later.
74:12It seemed to be the right play. Or do you sell high?
74:15Is this the time? You got to sell high on the dead zone.
74:19I mean, I called Dave Montgomery dead zone back and scored three touchdowns, so that didn't make me feel very good.
74:25I think David Montgomery might be my favorite guy to sell of these.
74:29I mean, he only rushed for three yards a carry.
74:31He just got a lot of touchdowns, right? And it was against a team that was a really poor run defense a
74:38year ago in their first game with a brand new defensive coordinator.
74:41Like, I liked Montgomery this year. I wouldn't be surprised if this is the best game he has all season.
74:47Obviously, it's hard to get three touchdowns in a game.
74:50Like, I do still think he will get that kind of usage near the goal line, so I don't think the touchdowns are going anywhere.
74:57But I don't think this is going to be a good, efficient, high yardage back.
75:01The flip side to that is, okay, fine, they get the Bengals next week.
75:05But after that, the Colts, Derek Henry just demolished them.
75:08Then they get the Cowboys, who look lost on defense still.
75:11And they get the Titans. Hello, Brees Hall and what he did.
75:14They get the Jaguars. That's not great. Then the Giants and the Chargers.
75:18The Chargers look like they're still, what are we at, like a decade plus of, like, the Chargers still trying to figure out their run defense?
75:25It's rest of season, Dave Montgomery or Jeremiah Love?
75:28Montgomery. Jeremiah Love for being a top five pick played behind Tyler.
75:31Yeah, but he looked good. Tyler was your rainbow.
75:34Yeah, but he's coming back from the ankle stuff.
75:37I get it. I get it. But, like. You look like the best running back on that game.
75:42He's really good, but still, man. It's a fair question, but I prefer Love.
75:46I'm not going to say after one win that the Cardinals are a good, a well-run organization.
75:50That's all. I prefer DeAndre Swift to both. But I would prefer Love, I think, to memory.
75:55Yeah, Killsine. All right, we'll go ahead. We'll wrap things up there.
75:59Thanks, everybody, for checking out our Week 1 reactions.
76:01For Erickson and Debro, I'm Ryan Warmly. We'll see you again next time.
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