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Brett Kollmann & Trevor Sikkema's ULTIMATE 2026 Season Preview | NFL Pro

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 11 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 4, 2026
Published
Fri, September 4, 2026
31
Player insights
28
Players mentioned
Topics
Dak PrescottJoe BurrowLamar JacksonBrian Thomas Jr.Brock BowersCaleb WilliamsCeeDee LambChase BrownChristian McCaffreyDerrick HenryDK MetcalfDrake MayeGeorge PickensJa'Marr Chase
Player analysis

Player insights

31

Brian Thomas Jr.

NegativeProjection61:04

Brian Thomas Jr. has not yet developed into the player the team hoped he would be, though there is potential for improvement in the upcoming season.

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Brock Bowers

PositiveBreakout55:15

Brock Bowers is a non-obvious Offensive Player of the Year candidate, expected to be a primary security blanket for the Raiders' quarterback.

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Caleb Williams

PositiveBreakout54:14

Caleb Williams is a non-obvious Offensive Player of the Year candidate; if he improves his accuracy on short-to-intermediate throws by 5-10%, his dual-threat ability makes him a top-tier producer.

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CeeDee Lamb

PositiveProjection33:26

Brett Kollmann includes CeeDee Lamb as a primary reason the Cowboys' offense is expected to be elite in the upcoming season.

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Chase Brown

PositiveUsage65:01

Chase Brown was heavily involved in the Bengals' offense last year, receiving a significant number of carries and touches.

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Christian McCaffrey

NegativeUsage57:22

Christian McCaffrey is coming off a high-usage season, which creates uncertainty regarding his workload and durability for the upcoming year.

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Dak Prescott

PositiveProjection33:26

Brett Kollmann describes the Cowboys' offense as 'sick' and high-performing, citing Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Javonte Williams as key contributors to a unit that should remain elite.

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PositiveValue53:13

Dak Prescott is an underrated MVP candidate who is highly efficient and supported by a strong group of passing weapons in the Cowboys' offense.

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Derrick Henry

PositiveUsage43:39

The Ravens are expected to lean more heavily on Derrick Henry as part of a more coherent macro-level offensive strategy under new coaching.

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DK Metcalf

PositiveProjection55:41

The Steelers' passing game may rely on a generational yards-after-catch performance from DK Metcalf to achieve explosiveness, given the low air yards per completion.

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Drake Maye

PositiveProjection47:01

Drake Maye is highlighted for his ability to exploit single-high safety structures by targeting crossing routes, which are described as high-percentage completions.

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George Pickens

PositiveProjection33:26

Brett Kollmann identifies George Pickens as a key contributor to the Cowboys' high-powered offense alongside Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb.

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Ja'Marr Chase

PositiveProjection55:03

Ja'Marr Chase is projected to have a monster year alongside Joe Burrow, making him a strong candidate for Offensive Player of the Year.

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Jacoby Brissett

PositiveRole60:03

Jacoby Brissett served as a vital 'glue guy' for the offense, significantly improving the team's EPA per play, success rate, and explosive play rate during the back half of the season; his presence was essential for the team's success in the AFC South.

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Jahmyr Gibbs

PositiveBreakout51:34

Jahmyr Gibbs is a non-obvious MVP candidate with the potential for a historic season, projected for 2,300-2,400 yards from scrimmage behind an improved Lions offensive line.

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Jakobi Meyers

PositiveRole59:56

Jakobi Meyers is described as the 'glue-iest' receiver in the NFL, providing consistent value to the Jaguars' offense through his blocking and receiving contributions.

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Jaylen Waddle

PositiveUsage22:03

Trevor Sikkema expects Jalen Waddle to be a top-10 target earner following his trade to the Broncos. Sikkema argues that Sean Payton intends to use Waddle in a 'Joker' role similar to Alvin Kamara and Reggie Bush, utilizing his speed out of the backfield and in motion to exploit zone and man coverage through slant-flat and slant-wheel route combinations.

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Joe Burrow

PositiveProjection52:40

Joe Burrow is the obvious MVP pick if he remains fully healthy, as the Bengals' offense is expected to be highly productive and capable of lighting up the scoreboard.

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NegativeInjury65:11

Joe Burrow did not have a fully healthy season last year, which impacted the Bengals' offensive output.

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Jonathan Taylor

PositiveUsage63:25

Jonathan Taylor benefits significantly from Tanner Bordellini's elite athleticism and ability to reach block and climb to the second level, which creates consistent rushing lanes.

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Kareem Hunt

NegativeUsage8:37

Brett Kollmann notes that the Chiefs' run game struggled with explosive plays, partly because Kareem Hunt is no longer able to break tackles as effectively as he once did. Kollmann points out that Hunt often failed to make defenders miss on the edge even when the blocking scheme was sound.

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Kenneth Walker III

PositiveUsage6:58

Brett Kollmann highlights Kenneth Walker as a major addition for the Chiefs, noting his 14.9% explosive run rate last year, which ranked third among running backs with at least 100 carries. Kollmann argues that while the Chiefs' offensive line sets a high floor, Walker provides the necessary ceiling-raising ability to turn lanes into explosive plays, contrasting him with Kareem Hunt's inability to break tackles.

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Kyler Murray

PositiveProjection13:48

Trevor Sikkema projects a career year for Kyler Murray in the Kevin O'Connell offense, predicting over 4,000 passing yards if fully healthy. Sikkema dismisses concerns about Murray's fit, noting that Murray's rushing production (top five among QBs since 2019) will thrive in a system that utilizes play-action and bootlegs, similar to how Sam Darnold saw career-high rushing usage in this scheme.

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Lamar Jackson

PositiveUsage43:44

Lamar Jackson is expected to benefit from a more coherent offensive play-calling strategy that aligns micro-decisions with macro-goals.

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PositiveProjection50:52

Lamar Jackson is the obvious MVP pick because he historically performs at an MVP level with new play callers and is expected to lead a high-scoring Ravens offense.

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Matthew Stafford

PositiveProjection53:49

Matthew Stafford is the obvious choice for Offensive Player of the Year, with expectations for high production and significant touchdown totals in the Rams' offense.

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Parker Washington

PositiveBreakout60:18

Parker Washington emerged as a key contributor alongside Jacoby Brissett, with the two players combining to provide essential support in the run game and contested catch situations.

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Patrick Mahomes

NegativeRole42:47

While Patrick Mahomes initially thrived in an air raid-style offense, the Chiefs have shifted toward more under-center and traditional formations in recent years.

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Travis Kelce

NegativeUsage68:23

Travis Kelce is noted for his role in creative goal-line plays, such as shovel passes, which are considered an exception to the general inefficiency of shotgun formations in short-yardage situations.

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Tucker Kraft

PositiveUsage53:30

The Packers' offense is substantively different when Tucker Kraft is on the field, and his return for Week 1 is critical for the team's offensive success.

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Tyreek Hill

PositiveUsage45:36

Tyreek Hill was the catalyst for the Chiefs' success against single-high safety defenses, utilizing his 4.2 speed on deep crossing routes to exploit coverage gaps.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

875
0:00The entire draft room groans because you just took the guy they wanted.
0:04There's no better feeling than crushing your fantasy football league.
0:07I'm JJ Zacharyson, host of the award-winning Late Round Podcast.
0:10Before your draft, our players to target and players to avoid episodes tell you exactly who to circle and who to cross off.
0:17Listen to the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
0:23Whether you're a seasoned NFL fan or new to the game, there's one place to keep up with all of it.
0:29The league's newest podcast, the NFL Report, hosted by me, Andrew Siciliano.
0:32It is your home for everything football. Breaking news, expert analysis, game picks, and hear from your favorite players too.
0:38Join me and an all-star cast of experts for everything you need to know from around the league.
0:44Get new episodes of the NFL Report Monday through Friday, all season long.
0:47Listen to the NFL Report Podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or Apple Podcasts, or Apple Podcasts.
0:53Or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, sickos?
0:56Welcome to the NFL Pro Podcast. 2026 season preview show.
0:58If you're listening to this on audio, be sure to subscribe to the NFL Pro Podcast all season long as we deep
1:05dive into the hottest NFL trends and teach you to analyze the game like a pro.
1:10Football! Oh, it's season preview time here on the NFL Pro Channel.
1:13Go boys ready! Hell yeah! Go boys ready! Hell yeah!
1:16Go boys ready! Hell yeah! Today, we're talking about new teams that are poised to take the leap into the postseason.
1:23This year, we're going to identify some secret superstars around the league, give you our season awards, but a couple of picks.
1:29Ones with the head and then with the heart as well.
1:32I'm going to show you a play that Sean Payton designed for Reggie Bush back in 2006 that I think is making a comeback here in 2026.
1:40The man who is a company man right next to me with the NFL Pro Pro.
1:45That is Brett Coleman. And myself, the company man with the NFL Pro shirt.
1:49I am Trevor Sikkema. I appreciate you guys tuning in and watching this season preview here.
1:54But Brett, how are you doing, my friend? I'm good.
1:57This is actually remnants of a Rob Lowe Halloween costume that I got years ago.
2:01No way! I flew out to Buffalo. Wait, is it actually a Rob Lowe costume?
2:06Yes. Yes. I swear to God. I flew out to Buffalo for the first Sunday night game in Buffalo in a long time.
2:13The Packers were visiting. I think Aaron Rodgers was still in the Packers at this time.
2:17And it was Halloween weekend. And so I went trick-or-treating with my buddy and his kids.
2:22Went to the Packers or the Bills game that weekend.
2:25And it's cold in Buffalo in October. So I was like, okay, what Halloween costume can I do that also involves being warm?
2:32And so I got the Rob Lowe trench coat, the Rob Lowe hat, wore it to the game.
2:37I actually got recognized. People identified and were shouting like, Rob Lowe, let's go!
2:41And so I've just had this hat ever since.
2:44I actually can't find this hat anywhere anymore. I need to try to source one because it's starting to get a little beat up.
2:51But it's one of my prized possessions. Brother, we work for the league now.
2:55I think we can get a generic NFL hat for you at some point so you can get a new one.
3:02So we got a lot of things to cover here on this show.
3:06So we got to get it rolling. We've had a lot of coaches, players, as they do every offseason, change spots, have
3:12some new homes, some new threads, whatever you want to call it.
3:16But the question is, is the grass greener? And we're going to identify a couple of different scenarios where somebody is making a change to a different team.
3:24And we're going to talk about whether or not we think that that's actually going to be a good change or not.
3:30So Brett, I'll let you kick this one off.
3:33Who do you want to start with? Who do you want to shout out here for the first player in a new spot?
3:40Well, we wouldn't be a sports show without talking about the Chiefs first and foremost.
3:44Oh, here we go. Here we go. It's going to make sense.
3:48We were supposed to be different. We're not. People tuned into this show to be different.
3:53And now you're bringing up how many times we could say the word Patrick Mahomes in a 60 minutes minute.
3:59No, I'm just kidding. I will not say Mahomes's name at all.
4:02Other than that, in this segment, I promise. The reason why I'm bringing it up.
4:07So the central theme of today, at least one of the central themes of today, is the run game.
4:12How it affects the micro. How it affects the macro.
4:15We're going to be touching on this a lot.
4:18And so when I bring up the Chiefs first, it's really because of the effect that Kenneth Walker has on their run game.
4:25This is one of the biggest offseason additions around the league because this team was straight up awful in terms of generating explosive plays with their run game.
4:33It's been that way for quite a while. And if you're looking at league wide trends, drives that have an explosive play
4:40end in a touchdown 42% of the time, like just over 42% of the time.
4:44That's a lot. Yeah. If you don't get an explosive play, it goes down to 4.3%.
4:49So this league runs on explosives and however you can get them, right?
4:53You know, one of the oldest adages that I've operated on is the offensive line sets the floor for a run game.
4:59The running back sets the ceiling. The floor was actually pretty high for the Chiefs running backs last year.
5:05This was a good team as far as average yards before contact per attempt.
5:09And if you're looking at the Chiefs running back room the last couple years, they're the only team in the NFL that was sub 7% explosive run rate.
5:17Like that's atrocious. And a lot of it is because Kareem Hunt just can't break tackles like he used to.
5:23There's a whole bunch of examples where, hey, we got all of our guys accounted for in the blocking scheme.
5:29You need to make one miss on the edge.
5:32And he just couldn't do it. Again, Hunt was effective in that first half, but not on this play.
5:38You contrast that with Kenneth Walker, who was exceptional at making his guy miss.
5:42It's about a 37 yarder from here to try to go up two scores.
5:46And they're going to keep it conservative from Myers.
5:49Walker on the run. He may bust a touchdown.
5:51He had a 14.9% explosive run rate last year.
5:54Third best in the NFL among all running backs with at least 100 carries.
5:58And the difference between the Chiefs run game last year and the Seahawks run game, I always go back to ceiling and floor, right?
6:05Ceiling of a run game is set by the running back.
6:08The floor is set by the offensive line. The Chiefs offensive line actually set up the running backs for success way better than people think.
6:16It's just they were so atrocious in terms of yards after contact per attempt.
6:20Yeah. Meanwhile, you have Kenneth Walker, who's exceptional after contact.
6:23He can actually turn those lanes that the Chiefs are going to give him into explosive runs and therefore make this offense just better by default.
6:31And the Seahawks are averaging about eight yards a carry.
6:34I love how you put that there with the offensive line sets the floor, the running back sets the ceiling, because that
6:40goes back to my scouting philosophy as well. There's a lot of running backs that can work for a run game, but how many truly elevate?
6:48And that's sort of how I've tried to make sure that my scouting process is really identifying and prioritizing running backs that elevate.
6:55I thought Kenneth Walker, when he was coming out in his draft season, absolutely a running back that would elevate.
7:01He has done that with the Seahawks, and I do agree.
7:04I think he is the best chance to do that that they have had in a long time.
7:09I mean, the last one they had that was over 10% was Clyde's as worth a layer, and that was a half decade ago.
7:16Like, it's been a while. This goes into the deeper, like, do running backs matter, contract value discussion, which I know we'll
7:23dive deep into sort of at some point this season.
7:26But that's really where it stems from, exactly what you just said.
7:29The running back is the one that has to elevate the ceiling of the run game.
7:34If you don't have a back that can either make guys miss in a phone booth, get those yards after contact, get
7:41those explosive plays, you're always, I think, going to be wanting more.
7:44So I'm super excited about Kenneth Walker as well.
7:47All trolling you aside, like this was a good way to kick things off.
7:51I think that this is going to be exciting to watch.
7:54And, you know, I want to go to Minnesota for my first one.
7:58I understand that things were not great in Minnesota last year.
8:02Most of what you heard there was just the craziness of the quarterback position.
8:06Guys in and out. McCarthy is no good. And it just felt like everything took a step back.
8:11Brett, do we forget that this team won nine games last year?
8:15Like, this is... Somehow. This is somehow, someway. But I'll tell you what the somehow, someway was.
8:20Kevin O'Connell and Brian Flores, right? This is still this coaching staff.
8:23So, yeah. Count me excited for Kyler Murray being a part of this coaching staff.
8:28And you know what? I think Kyler has a career year this year.
8:31I think Kyler has, in some ways, one of the best years of his entire career.
8:36I think he throws for over 4,000 yards for the first time in his career, if he's fully healthy.
8:42And the reason why is because I think a lot of people look at Kyler in this Kevin O'Connell offense and they say, oh, he doesn't fit.
8:50Like, he doesn't fit and he's not going to work out.
8:53Just because a guy didn't necessarily run it or hasn't necessarily run it doesn't mean he's not going to be a fit.
9:00He doesn't fit and he's not going to run basically exclusive spread shotgun stuff throughout college and the NFL.
9:05But I'm actually really excited about him in a more under center, heavier play action, heavier boot game type of an offense.
9:12Because when you go back to Sam Darnold two years ago, when he was with Minnesota, he had the most rushing attempts
9:18of his career, most rushing first downs of his career, and the third most rushing yards, which is pretty much close to
9:25like where his rushing career high was. Because you look at Kyler since 2019, since he came in the league, he's got
9:31almost 2,000 yards rushing, 12 touchdowns, 104 first downs.
9:34All of those numbers are top five around the league when it comes to a rushing quarterback.
9:39So I think that this is going to be great for him because people look at this offense as such a negative for Kyler Murray.
9:47I think Kevin O'Connell is the best coach he's ever had.
9:50I think Justin Jefferson's the best wide receiver he's ever had.
9:53He's had other good wide receivers, you know, like when DeHop was there and wide receiver talent wasn't really the big issue.
10:00But I just think that there's so much there to actually believe in.
10:04And in my opinion, there's too many people thinking, oh, he hasn't done it, so he won't be good at it.
10:10I actually think this is going to be the best thing for Kyler Murray in his career.
10:15And I think he's going to have a career year in a lot of ways.
10:19I'm going to put you on the spot. Their first three games this year, hosting Green Bay at Chicago at Tampa.
10:25What's more likely? 0-3, 3-0. I think what's more likely is 3-0.
10:29I would say so too. I don't think they go 3-0, but to your question, I think it's more likely they go 3-0 than they go 0-3.
10:37Yeah. They won more games last year than the Panthers did.
10:40Panthers won a division. Now, again, not a super high bar to clear, but like the third or fourth place team in
10:47a division won more than a division winner in the South.
10:50It's just, the NFC's crazy, man. They are. They are.
10:53All right. Who's next? Who's in a new place that you're looking forward to seeing?
10:58I'm really looking forward to seeing what Mike McDaniel and Amari and Hampton do together.
11:02After watching Amari and Hampton last year, it's honestly kind of the inverse of what we talked about with the Chiefs.
11:08The Chargers' average yards before contact per attempt was abysmal.
11:11Their average yards after contact per attempt was awesome.
11:14A lot of that was because of Amari and Hampton.
11:17If you're looking at running backs with at least 50 carries last year, Hampton was tied for third in missed tackle force
11:23percentage at 30.6%, which is a crazy high number for that large of a sample size.
11:28And if you look at carries like, say, the one that he had against the Raiders, right?
11:33This was a couple plays before they got a 60-yard touchdown.
11:36It was a third down. They had three shots at him to at least try to trip him up, which, you know, you look at Kareem Hunt's tape.
11:45He probably will get tripped up on these. Amari and Hampton was able to stay on his feet from not one, not two, but three guys.
11:52Eventually, the fourth guy got him. That was an explosive gain on third down.
11:57They scored two plays later. The rookie shows his power.
12:00They were not a very good team as far as blocking for him last year, but he still made something out of
12:06nothing so much that I have to imagine if their offensive line is remotely healthy this year.
12:11They've already lost a guy, so it's the Chargers.
12:14Bear with me. If they are remotely healthy, like maybe Slaughter is that guy at center.
12:19Go Gators. Just had to slip it in there.
12:21I have to imagine he's getting 1,300 plus rushing, maybe add a couple hundred receiving on top of there, and he's going
12:28to be the most productive running back the Chargers have had since Ryan Matthews.
12:32When Ryan Matthews went to the Chargers, I was like, this is just the passing of the torch with LaDainian Thomas, and
12:38I was like, here we go, baby. Another decade.
12:41I know injuries, obviously, unfortunately showed up Ryan, slowed up Ryan Matthews, but I agree with you.
12:46I love this call. I love McDaniel as the run game orchestrator because I think that they're going to get to the
12:53outside a lot, go straight into what you were talking about, honestly, with Jake Slater being a zone blocking guy.
12:59And anytime that you get Omari and Hampton to the outside and you get him one-on-one, man, he is too big a
13:05lot of times for corners to bring down, and he is too fast, and he is too quick for linebackers to bring down sometimes, too.
13:13I think he's in for a major, major year in Mike McDaniels offense.
13:16I agree. All right, bring us home. Who you got?
13:19I'm going to take the people on a little journey here, all right?
13:23Because earlier this offseason, the Miami Dolphins traded Jalen Waddell to the Denver Broncos, right?
13:28For a first-round pick. High price. High price. I think it's absolutely going to be worth it.
13:33When you look at the Broncos, since Sean Payton's got there, they've spread the ball out a ton.
13:38You know, guys, you have a target share in the low 20s, and it's just, it's a lot of different options for
13:45places where any of the quarterbacks, Bo Nix, obviously, the latest one, to be able to throw the football.
13:50And some people look at that and they go, oh, okay, this is just this era of Sean Payton.
13:56I don't think it is. I think Sean Payton wants to go back to what he had with Alvin Kamara and Michael
14:02Thomas when those guys were averaging above 30% of a target share.
14:06And when I look at Jalen Waddell, I think that Waddell is going to be top 10 in targets this season for any position.
14:13Running back, tight end, wide receiver. I think that that trade is going to look so well worth it because I think
14:20that the way that Payton wants to get him involved is reminiscent, not just of great wide receivers he's had in the past.
14:27I think he's thinking about Alvin Kamara and the usage out of the backfield as well.
14:31When you look at the last two years, the Broncos are second in the NFL in wide receivers that have played snaps in the backfield.
14:39And I got some plays to sort of highlight what I'm talking about here.
14:43So this clip here is from 2019. We're going to start with 2019.
14:47We're going to start with Alvin Kamara and the way that Sean Payton sort of used him.
14:52And the whole time I want you guys to think about this route combination.
14:56I want you to think about using Jalen Waddell out of the backfield.
15:00Think about his speed, okay? Let's start here by looking at Alvin Kamara.
15:04So first off, Kamara is lined up on the outside when they break the huddle.
15:08He is motioning back to the backfield and he's going to stand next to Drew Brees.
15:13So right off the bat, we sort of have an easy connection to Waddell being an outside wide receiver and then motioning him into the backfield.
15:21So we're going to look at two route concepts that are very similar here.
15:25The first one here in 2019 is this slant flat concept.
15:28And what it's going to do is it's going to take advantage of zone coverage.
15:32So you have these defenders right here that he's these deep zone coverage defenders.
15:37And then you're going to have this defender come here.
15:40There's a zone and this defender is going to occupy this zone.
15:43You're going to notice that the slant flat combination is going to carry this defender to the middle of the field and
15:50it's going to freeze this zone defender, which is going to open up all this space right here for Kamara to operate under.
15:56So if we let this play out, you see the slant, the flat.
16:00Look at all that space. Now, again, think about this route here, but it's Jalen Waddell speed.
16:05If Kamara is the prioritized player, look at all this space that he has to work with.
16:10Again, you get the ball in his hands. If he's the primary read, I think this goes for a touchdown, but that's not enough.
16:18I want to go a little bit deeper into the bag here.
16:21This is something that Sean Payton has been doing for a long, long time, getting speed out of the backfield.
16:27I'm going to take you all the way back to 2006.
16:30This is the NFC championship game here between the New Orleans Saints and the Chicago Bears.
16:35So this is instead of a slant and then a flat route here, it's a slant and a wheel route.
16:41Now, this is going to be against man coverage.
16:44Okay. Let's let this play out so we can see a little bit clearer.
16:48You see that this is a single high safety.
16:50Everybody else is in man coverage here. Okay. They're in man coverage basically everywhere across the board.
16:56And this is going to create this slant route.
16:58It's going to create this natural pick for this defender to, you know, he's not going to be able to keep up
17:05with Reggie Bush anyways, but Reggie Bush is just going to have this little bit of separation and then his speed does the rest.
17:12So we see how this plays out here. That is exactly what happens.
17:16Again, I say, think about this play with Jalen Waddle's speed.
17:19Bush wide open 30, 40, putting a move midfield.
17:22Can anybody catch Bush? He's the fastest guy on the field and nobody will.
17:2620, 15, 10, 5, bye bye baby. I think that Sean Payton views Jalen Waddle as that type of player, as an
17:32Alvin Kamara type of a player, as a Reggie Bush type of an athlete.
17:37And remember when he was talking about that Joker position a couple of years ago, right?
17:41And he never got that player that we all felt like was perfect there.
17:45Well, now he's got that player. Now he has that Joker position type of player.
17:50You want to hear a wild Sean Payton Broncos connection that also kind of loops in San Diego.
17:55So Reggie Bush, San Diego kid, right? So Sean Payton, after he was done playing, spent 87 with the Bears, a year
18:02or two later, he's at San Diego State starting his coaching career.
18:05From that staff, he learns about the slot option route, which is like a brand new thing back in football, back in the day.
18:12That staff was in the Dennis Erickson tree. That route concept was in the Dennis Erickson offense.
18:17Dennis Erickson got that offense from Jack Elway, who got it from his son's high school team at Granada Hills in LA.
18:24So bring it all around 40 years later. If I ever play you in NFL Jeopardy, I am screwed.
18:30Dude, I might as well just give you the charity money up front.
18:34I'll cut you the check beforehand and we could just not waste everybody's time for the episode.
18:39What a pull that was. But yes, that is how I see Jalen Waddle being used.
18:43And if you guys see these exact plays and concepts at some point this season, you just remember where you heard it
18:50first here on the NFL Pro Channel. I'm just saying, you better come back.
18:54That's why that happens. Everyone who watches this video, you owe us a subscription.
18:58Hey, hey, hey. If you're a f***ing dog, I need to see it today.
19:02If you're a f***ing dog, I need to f***ing feel it today.
19:06All right, let's talk about some teams that are poised to make the leap.
19:10We're going to talk about some teams that didn't make the playoffs last year that are going to this year.
19:16But of course, if you're adding teams to the playoffs, you get to subtract teams from the playoffs too.
19:22So Brett, talk to me about the first team that you see making the playoffs this year and why.
19:27Speaking of Sean Payton connections, I want to talk about the Cowboys.
19:31Their defense was bad last year. About 30 points per game is what they allowed.
19:35First of all, I think they're going to be a top 12 scoring defense this year.
19:40If they were even average last year, if they were 16th, 16th was about 23 points per game.
19:45So literally a touchdown less per game. If they held every team they played against last year to 23 points, they would have gone 12 and five.
19:53That's how bad their defense was, right? They would have pushed for a one seed or at least gotten close.
19:59So when I look at this team, the offense we know is going to be sick for all the reasons everybody talks about.
20:06Dak, CD, Pickens, Javante had a resurgent year. Like it's a good offense.
20:10If the defense can just execute better specifically on second down this year, almost by default, they're going to be an average defense.
20:17So kind of walk with me here on this.
20:19After they got Quinn and Williams in the post Quinn and Williams world, they went from 32nd in rushing success rate allowed.
20:26They were literally dead last in the NFL all the way up to 14th became an above average run defense as far
20:33as success rate allowed just from Quinn and existing, right?
20:36Massive jump. So they were a good first down defense.
20:38The issue was they got teams into a lot of second and longs and then completely crumbled.
20:44They were third worst in the NFL in offensive success rate allowed in second and long.
20:48DC's love being in second and long. If you're in second and medium, second and short, okay, now it's kind of ambiguous
20:55as far as run pass rates go. If you're in second and long, most teams are going to treat that as a
21:01passing down, which then favors the defense. The Cowboys, I mean, still they had the ninth highest pass rate, at least called
21:08pass rate against them on second and long. They knew teams were going to throw against them.
21:13They couldn't stop it. Not because the pass rush was bad.
21:16Pass rush was actually pretty decent, but 63.6% of all of these passes against them on second and long were quick throws under two and a half seconds.
21:24They couldn't cover anybody, but I don't necessarily think it was the player's fault.
21:29I mean, you're a draft guy. I'm a draft guy.
21:32We graded all these guys coming out. We like Revel, right?
21:35Bland a couple of years ago had a tremendous year.
21:38I don't think the players just got bad. But if you're looking at how they were used in the Iberflues system, Cooper
21:44Degene from week 11 on had more press snaps than either of the giant Cowboys corners.
21:49They were not letting them do what they do best.
21:52They would play a bunch of man, but they would make them play man in space and then wonder why the ball
21:59was getting out in two and a half seconds.
22:01Nobody could stop anything. So the pass rush had no shot of effect in the game because the ball was out.
22:08The DBs were not being played to their ideal skill set.
22:11Now you've got Christian Parker coming in. What does he like to do?
22:15A lot of match zone coverages, which means we're really playing man coverage, but with zone coverage principles.
22:20A lot more opportunities to get up on the line of scrimmage and press receivers and just not concede space.
22:26I still think they're going to be a good run defense because of Quinnen and Barham and Overshown and obviously Caleb Downs.
22:32But now they're actually going to have their stuff together on second and long and get to more third and long opportunities.
22:39This team, I think, was like conservatively bottom 10 in terms of third down plays run against them in the back half
22:46of last year because teams didn't get to third down.
22:49They just converted on second down. If you win second down here, it's going to be a good defense.
22:54And if they're a good defense with that offense, they could be like the two seed in the NFC.
23:00I agree. I mean, this is a team that I also picked to make the playoffs.
23:05I think Christian Parker is going to utilize his defense and their skill set in a lot better ways.
23:10They're going to play a lot more sort of zone because he's a Fangio guy, so he's going to want to stay in that too high world.
23:18But they'll play like zone matching where, okay, like a lot of zone is going on, but then the guys on the
23:25outside a lot of times are going to be afforded to play.
23:28Man, like their skill set actually says they should.
23:31You got a better front. You got Barham and overshone at the linebacker level.
23:35Like I'm super excited. So the Cincinnati Bengals are the team that I think makes the playoffs.
23:40One of the teams that I think is poised to make the lead back to the playoffs this year.
23:46And the reason why, yeah, we can see here and we can say like Joe Burrow, Jamar Chase, Tee Higgins.
23:52Like we can talk about the offense. Brett, we need to talk about both sides of the trenches.
23:57And one side of the trench is obvious, right?
24:00When you make a big splash for Dexter Lawrence, it's going to be better for this team.
24:05I know they don't want Trey Hendrickson anymore, but it's going to be better.
24:09They were so bad in the middle of that defensive front last year.
24:13His presence alone is going to be huge from a pass rush perspective, from a run stopping perspective, and from just a
24:19planetary perspective of what his gravitational pull and everything does to both his side of the trenches and the other side of the trenches.
24:26But I want to kind of focus on the offensive line a little bit here because I don't think enough people realize
24:33that the Bengals offensive line is not what it used to be.
24:37And I say that in the best way. When you look at this team, they're starting five offensive linemen last year.
24:43Only one of them had a quarterback pressure percentage above 7%.
24:46And it was Amarius Mims, who I think Mims is going to have a much better year this year anyways.
24:52Now, what does 7% pressure rate mean? Well, guys like Darnell Wright, Peter Skaronsky, Chris Lindstrom, Mike McGlinchey, those guys all had pressure percentages above 7%.
25:00So four out of the five spots on the Bengals offensive line had below a 7% pressure rate.
25:05And then again, the only one that didn't was Mims, who I think is going to take a leap this year anyways.
25:12Because there is athletic and just size progression that I think is naturally going to happen with him if he is fully healthy.
25:18It's kind of what we thought of him coming out of Georgia.
25:22And I think that's really manifesting right now. So give me the Bengals, man.
25:26Give me the Bengals to get back to the playoffs.
25:29But I think win that division. And I think this is an AFC championship team.
25:34And I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bengals making it back to the Super Bowl as well.
25:39I think this is a Super Bowl ceiling type of a team.
25:42So first of all, I agree. I think they win the division.
25:46But I also think the Ravens make the playoffs as well.
25:49I think two teams go to the playoffs from the AFC North.
25:53So I'm going to have the Ravens as my other making the leap team.
25:57And here's why. Ravens fans know this well. This team was really bad from a macro perspective over the last few years.
26:04I thought they were pretty good in that run in 2023.
26:07Then they got to the AFC championship game and just kind of lost their minds a little bit.
26:12And then since then, they've really been bad in the macro game, right?
26:16When am I kicking a field goal versus going for it?
26:19When am I punting versus going for it? When am I really leaning on Derrick Henry?
26:24When am I leaning on Lamar Jackson? It just felt like a lot of their micro play calls never made sense in the macro.
26:31And so you bring in Jesse Minner. You bring in, in particular, Declan Doyle, who comes from this Ben Johnson offensive school
26:38of the micro is in service of the macro.
26:40And I think it's just going to look very different.
26:43I think concepts will be similar. I think techniques will be similar as far as the offensive line.
26:49I still think it's going to be a bunch of wide zone, which the Ravens have done.
26:54But I think it's all going to be in service of a more coherent macro.
26:58And I want people to walk with me here on this.
27:01Everything the Bears did was knowing in their back pocket, they were really good in third and short.
27:0772% conversion rate on third and short. They were one of the three best teams in the NFL at it.
27:13So that was always in their back pocket. So to them, first down was a great opportunity to throw the ball because
27:19really, as long as they could get to third and short, they were golden.
27:23They had the fifth highest pass rate on first down.
27:26Their play calls on second down really depended on whether or not that ball was complete on first down.
27:32Typically, like a normal yards per attempt on first down is going to be what?
27:36Seven, seven and a half. If that's complete, you're in second and short already.
27:41Once they got to second and short, they were hyper aggressive.
27:44This was a stat that I got from Ryan Paganetti.
27:47Great stats guy. Worth a follow. Always tweets really interesting stuff.
27:50Among 68 play callers with 70 plus games calling plays since 1999, Johnson ranks first in second and short aggression rate as
27:57far as throwing the ball down the field. No current projected 2026 play caller is even within 17 percentage points of him on second and one.
28:04They throw the ball on second and short. Why?
28:07Because if it's incomplete, who cares? We're good on third and short.
28:11We're already set up for that. So what if the ball's incomplete on that first down pass and they're in second and long?
28:17You would think that's where you throw it again.
28:20They don't. They run the ball. They actually had the second highest run rate on second and long because they were just
28:27trying to get to third and manageable. They were a really good team on third and manageable.
28:32What's interesting about that is when they would run the ball to get to third and manageable, where they were on the field determined what they did next.
28:40Again, micro in service of the macro. Once they crossed the 50, they treated third and long like it's another rundown.
28:46They would run the ball a lot on third and long because they're like, well, we're already across the 50.
28:52We're playing with two downs here. So they would turn third down essentially into second down once they were in opponent territory.
28:59If they were in their own territory, they would throw more.
29:02And again, they were really good at it. And so you see this pattern of our run pass rates, our personnel groupings,
29:08our formations, everything is kind of keeping that third down in the back of their mind because their whole philosophy is let's just keep getting first downs.
29:16If we string enough first downs together, we're going to score.
29:20And we know that Ben Johnson wants to be the highest scoring offense of all time.
29:25I think we're going to see a the Bears do this a lot again this year.
29:29But I also think we're going to see the Ravens do it a lot.
29:33I think their play calling is going to make sense from a macro perspective, which for the first time in years is something I could say about Baltimore.
29:42It's this like no surrender sort of like philosophy when it comes to we have four downs to get the first down.
29:48We don't have three and then a punt. We have four downs to get the first down.
29:53We see teams around the league being really aggressive with that.
29:57But obviously Ben Johnson's philosophy over the last couple of years goes into that, which sort of leads right into my point
30:03for my last team that I think makes the playoffs this year.
30:07And that's the Lions. I think the Lions are back in the playoffs this year.
30:11I think they're winning the division in the toughest division in football.
30:15I think that they actually come out on top because when you look at this team last year, still an OK year
30:21from them, especially given the fact that, man, they had so many injuries.
30:25They lost both of their coordinators. I think that they're back on track this upcoming season, specifically from an efficiency standpoint on
30:32those key downs that you mentioned, third and fourth down.
30:35Now, this team still scored a lot of points last year.
30:38They still racked up a ton of yards. But the big difference, I think, with the Lions last year was they just
30:44weren't nearly as efficient on third and fourth down.
30:47When they had Ben Johnson there, Ben Johnson was a whiz at setting third down up to be manageable, getting it ready
30:54for fourth down if that was the best case for them there, and then converting on that fourth down.
30:59They just were not the same without Ben Johnson.
31:02And I think that they're going to be much more cohesive and much more confident when it comes to those money downs.
31:08I certainly hope that this team isn't nearly as hurt on the defensive side of the ball as they were last season.
31:15And if those things are true, I think that they do have the right coaching staff.
31:20I still think they do have the right players, and I think they're going to once again light up the scoreboard.
31:26But beyond that, control the football more than they were able to last year.
31:30So give me the Lions to win what is the toughest division in the NFL.
31:35Teams that missed the playoffs, because if we're adding teams, we've got to subtract teams.
31:39So really quick, who are your two teams to miss the playoffs, since you talked about two teams to now make the playoffs this year?
31:46Well, we've talked positively about the entire NFC North except for the Packers, which is unfortunate, right?
31:51Because they're a good team. They really are. They had some tough decisions to make in the offseason because they were up against it cap-wise.
31:59They had to spend their money wisely, and so they lost a couple quality players.
32:03It's just, it's tough to project how successful this run game is going to be when there's been so much upheaval up
32:10front for the last couple of years. Not to mention, okay, Tucker Craft is going to be back for week one, we think.
32:17Is he going to look like Tucker Craft, right?
32:19If you're looking at the on-off splits for this offense, they are a substantively different team offensively when Tucker Craft is on the field.
32:26If he looks like himself, okay, great. We're cooking with gas.
32:30But I have even deeper worries about the defense because as dramatic as the splits are for Tucker Craft, they are way
32:36more dramatic for Micah when he's on and off the field, and he's not going to be there week one.
32:42Their quick pressure rate damn near doubles when he's on the field.
32:46They have other players we like. Edron Cooper is great.
32:49Xavier McKinney is great. You can't function without Micah Parsons there, and he's not going to be there.
32:54I worry they're going to have a hole that's too deep to dig out of.
32:59Who's the other team? Because you got one more.
33:01What's the other one? I mean, it's the same pick that everybody else has, the Steelers.
33:06And there are parts of the Steelers that I like a lot, right?
33:10Young, talented offensive line. I think the run game is going to be fine.
33:14I think the defense has pieces I really like.
33:17But there is no universe where you can keep making the playoffs in a tough AFC where you have the Bengals and
33:23the Ravens who I think are going to be better this year.
33:27You can't make the playoffs in that division, in my opinion, when your average completion traveled 3.4 yards past the line of scrimmage.
33:34That's basically a below average run as far as air yards per completion.
33:37Yeah. If they're not an explosive passing game, it would take like a generational yards after catch year by DK Metcalf to be a great explosive pass game.
33:46It's going to look a lot different, though. You know, like they're just there.
33:50I still think they're going to get the running backs involved in the passing game a lot because this team either led
33:56the NFL or was second in the NFL in targets to running backs last year, which is why the average set of
34:03the target is so low because Aaron Rodgers didn't want to get hit.
34:07So he's like, here you go, Jalen. You know, here you go, Kenneth.
34:11Hope you don't die. I'm just dumping it off every single time.
34:14But I think it's going to look a little bit better from an average at the target standpoint.
34:20But I do agree with you. I think just the fact that the Ravens and the Bengals, in my opinion, are going to be that much better.
34:28I think it's going to leave the Steelers out.
34:30So I took the obvious ones. What about yours?
34:33Who do you have missing the playoffs? I have the Niners sort of barely missing the playoffs this year.
34:39A lot of new, still some injuries that they're working through.
34:42McCaffrey coming off just such a high usage year for him last year.
34:46You know, Brandon Ayuk obviously not being a part of this.
34:49Ricky Pearsall not being a part of this. A lot of people are super excited about Deshaun Shribbling and you should be.
34:56I had him as a top 60 player as well.
34:58But man, that's a lot to ask of a rookie to basically carry your passing attack.
35:03I know they got Mike Evans as well, but we'll see what he is like in a new spot.
35:09But I just feel like there's just too many uncertainties, I feel, with the Niners to be in a division with the Seahawks and the Rams.
35:17And to also specifically be in a conference where we already talked about how we think the Cowboys are going to be a lot better.
35:24We already talked about how basically everybody in the NFC North could make the playoffs.
35:28I think they're going to just miss it this year.
35:31And then my other team is Carolina. I just don't think that Carolina is going to repeat as division champs.
35:37It is a wide open NFC South, but I like the Bucks and the Saints more than I like Carolina to repeat.
35:44Again, I have question marks in the trenches. Getting Jalen Phillips is huge for them.
35:48He has to be huge this season. But you're down what was your schedule starting two offensive tackles.
35:54Can Monroe Freeling really step up the way that he needs to?
35:57I mean, if they end up making the playoffs, I think Monroe Freeling, we're going to look back and we're going to
36:04be like, what a hell of a pick that was because he's going to have to have an incredible year for them.
36:10But they're still figuring things out in the vertical passing game.
36:14Their run game hasn't looked great this preseason. Is it going to be able to start right out of the gate and play well?
36:21So just too much up and down for me for the Panthers to repeat.
36:25So I think the Panthers are out. They were a team that very much relied on low possession counts to win games last year.
36:32Right. The more possessions are in a game, you would think that it means that the more talented teams or rather just
36:39the more cohesive teams, as they get more possessions to pull away from you, they're going to pull away from you.
36:45The Panthers didn't want that to happen. So their average offensive and defensive possessions was like nine and a half last year.
36:51Right. In a sport where there's only so many points you can score per possession, the Panthers limited your ability to score
36:58a lot of points to pull away. And so they would drag you down in the mud and beat you with experience.
37:04Right. This year, I'm not sure they're going to be able to do that again.
37:09I think they're going to have to like actually go toe to toe in these games where you have 11, 12 possessions
37:15and you have to score at the same rate as the other team.
37:19We'll see if they can do it. But I'm in agreement.
37:22I think the Bucks win the division. All right.
37:25We have a little quick segment in the middle of the show.
37:29And I want you guys at home to also play along with this.
37:33Pause the video where you need to, because we're going to play stat or cap.
37:37It's essentially like two truths and a lie. Right.
37:40I'm going to present three stats that Trevor has not seen.
37:43He's going to tell me which one is the lie.
37:46And I want you guys to tell me in the comments if you also got it correct.
37:51I have these stats in front of me. I was actually very surprised at the answer.
37:56So I'm not sure if you're going to get it.
37:59Oh, okay. All right. All right. I said that I said that I wouldn't beat you in jeopardy, but I could, I
38:05think I can get you in a one question versus one question, two truths and a lie.
38:10So let's do this. Let's, let's lock in. I'm locked in here.
38:14All right. Your three stats. The Bengals led the league in called pass rate last year, six quarterbacks through for 1000 plus yards just from under center.
38:22And the 2025 season had the highest rate of two tight end sets.
38:26What's the lie? I think the first one's a lie and I'll kind of like talk through it as people are sort
38:32of thinking about their answer as well. We, we talked a little bit when we answer some of your Q and a
38:39questions in our initial episode here on the channel.
38:41And we talked about sort of the rise of 12 personnel and how I mentioned 12 teams last year had 100 play action snaps from under center.
38:49So I think that whenever, a lot of times when you're doing that, that leans into heavier personnel.
38:55So I don't think it's the tight end one.
38:57And when I think about the Bengals specifically, Chase Brown had a, uh, I believe this is a from the metric system
39:04here, a crap ton of carries and touches. So they actually involved Chase Brown a lot last year, not a fully healthy borough season.
39:11So I'm going to say that a is the lie.
39:14So you're correct. Let's go for, for bonus points that aren't real.
39:18Uh, which team did lead the league in called pass rate?
39:21It's going to seem so obvious when you hear it.
39:24First thought, first thought was lions, but they have Gibbs.
39:27So I don't think that that's the case. I don't think they would have put that much on Caleb's plate.
39:33Was it the Cowboys? No, you're going to kick yourself when you hear it.
39:37The Cardinals. Oh yeah. Of course. Yeah. Right. Come on.
39:40For like 50 times a game. I should have known that.
39:43I should have known that. This is yours. By the way, shout out to the fine folks over at NGS for, uh,
39:50getting us these stats, the database that they have and the researchers that we have over at NFL media.
39:55Insane. I cannot wait to take advantage of their knowledge and expertise of the platform all season long.
40:01All right, here we go. These are the three statements.
40:04Will Anderson recorded the most pressures in the league in 2025.
40:07Miles Garrett has recorded the quickest get off time in each of the last four seasons, minimum of 250 snaps.
40:13And Patrick Queen missed more tackles than any other defender in a season in the NGS era last year.
40:18What do we think it is? Ooh, man, that's tough.
40:21I think number three is, yeah, I'll go. Number three is a lot.
40:25I think Patrick Queen ideally had a better tackle rate than that.
40:29I hope he did. He did not. Oh, no.
40:32He did not. Hold on. Let me look up Patrick Queen's salary right now.
40:36More than us, brother. More than us. The lie was actually a will.
40:40Anderson did not record the most pressures in the league last season.
40:43Aiden Hutchinson led the NFL with 90 pressures last year.
40:46I think one of the craziest Aiden Hutchinson stats I've ever seen was, so when he broke his leg a couple years
40:53ago, I think it was like week 11 or week 12.
40:56He broke it in like week six. I'm pretty sure it took another six weeks for somebody to pass him in pressures that year.
41:03Yes. Yes. Absurd. So you know why I know that specifically?
41:06Because in that God mode Aiden Hutchinson like six games, whatever it was, the Bucs, they played the Bucs in like in that span.
41:13The Bucs were down, I think, both of their starting offensive tackles, if not one of them.
41:18And Aiden Hutchinson ate him alive. Hutchinson had like double digit pressures.
41:22I don't know. Don't quote me on that one.
41:25But he had like double digit pressures in one game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers where he would just, Mayfield was running for his life.
41:32So I do remember that. Aiden Hutchinson got in there and nailed him.
41:36All right. I want to hit on a trend here.
41:39Unfortunately, it's one that Trevor might not like because we're holding a little funeral for the air raid offense.
41:45Which I know your favorite thing. May it rest.
41:47May it rest. But I will say, if you're looking at what NFL teams are telling us with their moves this offseason,
41:54really the last couple offseasons, the air raid is, and I want to say dead, it's not doing well in the NFL.
42:00You have about 20% of the starting quarterbacks in the league that have some kind of connection to the Cliff Kingsbury, Lincoln
42:07Riley, even like the old BYU air raid. Connection there.
42:10What's the pop culture game? It's like eight separations of Kevin Bacon or something like that.
42:15Yeah. The Bacon number to 80 BYU. All you need is three to get to Cliff Kingsbury, it feels like, over the last five years.
42:22All right. Lincoln Riley guy. And so Cliff by association.
42:25Buccaneers. Baker was a Lincoln and a Cliff guy at various points in college, I believe.
42:30The Browns kind of converted him to being more under center centric when he was early in his career, which was good for him.
42:37But again, he kind of came out of that shotgun air raid world.
42:41And then you got the Chiefs with Andy Reid, who again, like he was there when the deep magic was written.
42:47He was a player at BYU in the 80s when they started this whole thing.
42:51And so that was honestly what I should have seen coming because I wasn't, I was famously like not a huge Patrick
42:58Mahomes guy in his draft class because we had never seen an air raid quarterback work in the NFL.
43:04And then of course he went to the coach that knows the air raid better than anybody.
43:09And it's like, okay, of course it worked there.
43:11But even Mahomes over the last few years, more under center, more quote unquote traditional looking like they're kind of getting away from it as well.
43:19And so there's such a huge swath of these quarterbacks.
43:22They're not going to be in gun as much.
43:25It's not just going to be inside zone all day, less RPOs, less screen, more under center, more play action.
43:31We're all kind of going back to 2000s football.
43:33And I think the reason why, you know, if we're talking about like how we get to this point, it's because one college football, right?
43:41Bill Parcell says the NFL can only take what the college game is giving them, right?
43:45There's some obvious changes that the pro game will bring just because of the elevated strength, size and athleticism.
43:51But if college is trending towards a certain way, a lot of times the pros are going to try to take advantage
43:58of those concepts and skill sets and things like that.
44:01So when you look at college, you get, you look at these teams that were just lighting up the scoreboard in the 2010s.
44:07And then Patrick Mahomes, there were a lot of people that thought it wasn't going to work with Patrick Mahomes, but he
44:14gets to the league and they spread things out and he just shreds these single high defenses.
44:19Anybody that was playing cover one, cover three, there was all this base of the seam and they were just punishing these defenses for it.
44:26Terry kills wide open. The Chiefs go 73 yards in one play.
44:30When you look back in 2017, the NFL teams were 111 personnel, 58.7% of the time.
44:35Then a couple of years later, about five years later, it goes all the way up to 61.4.
44:40But last year, it's all the way down to 56.3.
44:43Now, if you look at heavier personnel, so not the spread, not the air raid, heavier, more condensed personnel.
44:49In 2017, it was only 26.9%. And last year was 33.2.
44:52It's been going up every single year. Now I got another stat that, you know, I think really contextualizes this even more
44:58because next gen stats can do this. If you measure from the widest wide receiver on one side of the field to
45:05the other, there was a 26.3 average width from wide receiver to wide receiver back in 2017.
45:10Last year, it was an entire four yards closer and it was at 22.9.
45:14It's been going down every single season. So to go back to what you said, is the air raid dead?
45:20I don't know if it's dead, but it certainly ain't trending in the right direction.
45:25You kind of brought it up there with the cover three, cover one thing and how the Chiefs were absolutely demolishing people
45:31that were in single high safety structures in Mahomes' first couple of years as starters.
45:36A big reason for that is because you have Tyreek Hill and you put Tyreek Hill as the number three when you're
45:42going into a trips look and you can run a deep cross with a receiver that runs 4-2 and there's nobody that can keep up with them.
45:50And so when teams were in cover three, like that throw was just available to them all the time.
45:56It really wasn't until the AFC championship game against the Patriots, specifically in the second half of that game where Belichick kind of adjusted.
46:03They started playing literally a cover it's that they call one cross.
46:06Some coaches call it one lurk, whatever you want to call it, where you're putting a zone defender.
46:12It's man coverage. It's single high, but you're putting a zone defender in that intermediate middle in order to stop those crossing routes.
46:19Right. And that's the misconception that I think a lot of people have is when you're dropping a safety down in the
46:25box and you're opening yourself up to be vulnerable against the pass.
46:29It's not because you're throwing go routes down the boundary.
46:32It's not because you're throwing a deep post. Cover three is going to stop both of those throws more often than not.
46:38It's those crossing routes. That's what kills people. That's the air raid identity is those crossing routes.
46:43And so when you see the rise of a too high safety look, the teams that are trying to stop crossing routes
46:50are playing quarters to stop those crossing routes because if they play cover one or they play cover three, you're going to get absolutely torched.
46:57I want to bring up this touchdown by Kyle Williams to illustrate this, right?
47:01This is the nightmare fuel that makes people want to play quarters.
47:05If you have these two crossing routes and you only have one high safety, that safety has to choose which one he's going to cut, right?
47:13That's what coaches call it. You're cutting the crosser because you have a depth and leverage advantage to handle this crossing route
47:19a lot better than the corner does who's covering it.
47:22You only have one available safety to do that.
47:25And typically he's going to cut the crosser that's deeper.
47:28And so when you have Kyle Williams one-on-one here with a route that is designed to break man coverage, a crossing route,
47:34and there's nobody there with a leverage advantage to cut it because you only have one high safety, then all Drake May
47:41has to do is wait for him to clear a linebacker, get to that last window.
47:46It's a much higher completion percentage throw than a go ball down the boundary where you're hoping for 50-50.
47:51This is a much easier one to complete. And there's nobody there.
47:55If you complete it, there's literally nothing that can stop him from scoring.
47:59That was how the Chiefs absolutely destroyed everybody. It was with these crossing routes because they had Tyreek Hill and you didn't
48:05have anybody that could cover Tyreek Hill. That's why you now see teams play a lot of quarters against teams that love crossing routes, right?
48:13You look at this PBU by Julian Love here.
48:15Seattle loves quarters. Why? Because if you're in a three-by-one look, right?
48:19You do a late motion. You're switching the two and the three to the field side.
48:24You have the new three, he's running a shallow.
48:26You have the new two, he's running across. You have the safety that can play over the top of number one, but
48:33you still have another safety that's available to cut the crosser.
48:36He has a leverage advantage. He has a depth advantage.
48:39You're not going to get absolutely killed here. Like when you have these leverage advantages with multiple safeties, it takes away the
48:46bread and butter of the air raid, which is these crossing routes.
48:49It's not about the deep post. It's not about the go ball.
48:53It's not even about screens and RPOs. It's can we stop the deep crossing route?
48:57You're going to sacrifice a little bit as a run defense if you're playing quarters, unless you have a unicorn type of
49:04defensive tackle like Byron Murphy, which we talked about last show, but you still have to do it or else you're going
49:10to give up explosive plays in the pass game.
49:13That's why they want to force you into cover three is to open up those crossing routes.
49:18EPA per pass damn near doubles. If you're looking at single high safety structures versus two high safety structures, as in you
49:24will get a much higher EPA per pass. If you can force teams into playing single high safety.
49:30That's why we're seeing more tight ends on the field.
49:33We're seeing more condensed formations on the field because they know defenses will play more cover three against those looks.
49:39It's not that they want to. It's because they have to because they have to stop the run first.
49:44That's rule number one. And if you can force them into cover three, you're going to get explosive plays in the pass game.
49:51Not from go balls from crossing routes. That is the sport right now.
49:55That'll be an ongoing thing. But that's a big area of improvement for us because I'm not going to run away that
50:02I haven't done a good enough job of making that an emphasis and it's cost us and that's nobody's fault but my own.
50:08All right. Thanks guys. Let's move on to some season awards because we got to hit the season awards.
50:14We got to hit MVP, offensive player of the year, defensive player of the year, but we're going to have two different picks here.
50:21We're going to have, okay, this is what your head says.
50:24And that might be a little bit more of the obvious pick, but then a pick from the gut, pick from the
50:31heart, whichever organ or body part you want to say is a little bit off the beaten path here.
50:37So give me your MVP. Let's knock these out because I want to get to as many as possible, but MVP, obvious one, non-obvious one.
50:44What do you got? I think the obvious one to me is Lamar because it seems like every time he gets a new play caller, he wins MVP.
50:52So we're going off this right here. But also all the reasons we talked about with Declan Doyle, I think the offense is just going to make sense.
51:01And I think they're going to score a lot of points.
51:04I think they're going to win a lot of games.
51:07You know, obviously Jesse Minner, I didn't even talk about him.
51:10Like he's going to get that defense right. Fun fact, if I recall correctly, the Ravens defense allowed more points in the
51:17first five weeks last year than they did the entire rest of the season combined.
51:21And that's the reason they missed the playoffs. So as long as they're not like historically the worst defense of all time
51:28in the first month, they'll be okay. They'll probably make the playoffs.
51:31And then my non-obvious MVP is going to be Jameer Gibbs.
51:34How's this for a bold prediction, by the way?
51:37I think it's possible he has the greatest running back season in Lions history this year, which by the way, Barry Sanders played for the Lions.
51:45I was about wait. Oh, I just went through.
51:47I just went through the entire circle of emotions right there because I thought you were going to say of all time.
51:54And I was thinking in my head, like some unbelievable running back seasons, like LaDainian Tomlinson seasons.
51:59The first one that came to my mind is like, okay, he didn't say better than LT.
52:04And then I went, wait a second, Barry Sanders played for the ball.
52:08I mean, I think he has, he has a legit shot to get like 23, 2400 yards from scrimmage.
52:14And we've seen how many touchdowns he can score.
52:16Even if you go back to like Barry's, you know, best year yardage wise, Jameer's already had, I think two seasons where
52:23he had more touchdowns than that Barry Sanders. Yeah.
52:25Yeah. So you add in a metric ton of yards with an improved offensive line and all those touchdowns, he could legitimately win MVP.
52:33I think it'd be fun if a running back won MVP, but it is a quarterback award.
52:38So I'm gonna go quarterbacks with my two picks.
52:40The, with my head or the obvious pick here, if I think the Bengals are going to win the division, if I
52:47think the Bengals are going to get to the AFC championship game, it means that Joe Burrow is fully healthy and it
52:53means that offense is firing on all cylinders. So I'll go with Joe Burrow as the MVP there.
52:59You just know that they can light up a scoreboard and a stat sheet when he is healthy.
53:04So I'll go Joe Burrow as the obvious one.
53:07Uh, and then the not obvious one, I don't know, maybe this isn't, uh, out there enough, but I'll go Dak Prescott.
53:13We talked very highly of the Cowboys here on the show and what we think they can be.
53:19We've highlighted the defense. We highlighted the defense last show as well, but man, I, I, I love what Brian Schottenheimer did with this, this unit last year.
53:27And I think that Dak is at this point underrated.
53:30It feels like people just go like, Hey, yeah, Dak Prescott, whatever.
53:33And I just think that he is a, an awesome quarterback and efficient quarterback.
53:38And he's got a lot of passing weapons to throw the ball to.
53:41So I'll go Dak Prescott there. Offensive player of the year.
53:45Who you got, who you're to Matthew Stafford, I think is the obvious choice.
53:49I think the Rams are going to be sensational this year.
53:52They're everybody's favorite pick for the Superbowl. I think he's going to be as long as he's healthy.
53:58Uh, I think he's going to be tremendously productive again, him and Devante in the red zone.
54:03I think you're going to get a bunch of touchdowns again, as far as my non obvious.
54:08And maybe to some people it is obvious, but you know, looking at the metrics last year, it shouldn't be Caleb Williams.
54:14If we just get a little bit more accurate on the normal run of the mill first, second down, get me some completions type of throats.
54:22If he's just 10% better on those, he's one of the most productive quarterbacks in the NFL.
54:2710, maybe five. That's a lot. That's a lot.
54:30Hold on here. Give me to like 65% on like, okay, that's fine.
54:33We can, we can set the bar at 65 jumping 10% accuracy.
54:37How about this? I don't know if anybody's done that.
54:40The fully formed like Caleb Williams is Jared Goff with the layups, but still Caleb Williams with like the logo threes.
54:46Of course. Yeah. That player, that player wins offensive player of the year and that player might win MVP, honestly.
54:52Yeah. I think he can get there. I really do.
54:55My, uh, I'll go with, again, if Joe Burrow is going to win MVP, I think Jamar Chase probably win an offensive player of the year, right?
55:03Jamar's going to have a monster year. So that's a little bit chalk, but I'm, I'm going with the Bengals combination there
55:10with how good Jamar and Joe Burrow are together.
55:12But my non-obvious one, I'm gonna go Brock Bowers.
55:15I'm gonna go Brock Bowers here. I think the good Kubiak is going to utilize Brock Bowers a ton in that offense.
55:22I think he's going to be a security blanket, best friend, whatever cliche you want to say for Fernando Mendoza when he eventually becomes a starting quarterback there.
55:30So I'm, uh, I'm in on Brock Bowers. I'll go real quick with defensive player of the year, uh, before you hit yours as well.
55:37I'll go Will Anderson sort of as the obvious one with defensive player of the year.
55:42And then my non-obvious one, let's go more Cowboys.
55:45I go Quinton Williams. And I'm only going Quinton Williams because of what you said last week about how important that defensive
55:51tackle is to a Christian Parker defense. I think Christian Parker is going to sit Quinton Williams down, just look him in
55:58the eye and be like, we will go as far as you, as you could take us this season.
56:03And I'm going to put you in the best positions to succeed.
56:07And it's going to be up to you to execute.
56:10And I think Quinton is going to be motivated.
56:13I think he's going to stuff the stat sheet.
56:15And I think he could be a defensive player of the year candidate.
56:19What about you? What do you got? I mean, if you want a little cross promotion here, if people go over to
56:26the NFL channel and they watch the video of Will Anderson and Miles Garrett working out, watch Miles Garrett do that box jump.
56:32And then tell me he's not winning it again this year.
56:36You mean box fly? Because it's what it looked like he was doing, just floating in the air.
56:41Like straight up, it looked like CGI. It was unbelievable.
56:44You never know what you believe. Maybe it is.
56:47No, I'm just kidding. Aliens are among us. If Miles Garrett came around for the first time in 2026, we'd all claim he's AI.
56:54So, you know. Yes, actually. The non-obvious one, speaking of aliens, Jeffrey Simmons.
56:58I think he is tremendous. I think he's the best interior defensive lineman in football right now.
57:03Now, he outproduced, I think it was five entire interior defensive line groups by himself last year.
57:08Like you look at Jeff Simmons versus the Niners and like he lapped them.
57:12That's how good he is. I think he could definitely win it.
57:16Coming on in the last couple of seconds, we got on the show here for the season preview.
57:21Obviously, we'll continue to talk ball throughout the entire season with you guys.
57:25But secret superstar, secret glue guys, whatever you want to call it.
57:28These guys that not a lot of people are talking about, but a lot hangs on their shoulders or they're bringing everything together.
57:35However you want to say it. We got two each.
57:38Brett, who is your first secret glue guy here in the NFL?
57:42Dude, Kamari Lasseter is a psychopath. He's a dog.
57:44Like he's unbelievable. You watch him last year. It's fourth and one against Buffalo.
57:48Reggie Gilliam. Everybody's favorite fullback. Reggie Gilliam. He plays at like 260 and Kamari Lasseter took him on shoulder to chest and bent him backwards.
57:56And that set up a TFL on fourth and one in a crew.
58:00Like that's a corner taking on a 260 pound fullback and winning.
58:03He's unbelievable. Got seven picks in his first two seasons.
58:06Roughly the same missed tackle rate as Devin Witherspoon.
58:09Everybody loves Devin Witherspoon as a run defender. He just got paid for it.
58:13And you should. But he had 62 solo tackles last year while Spoon had 48.
58:18And they had roughly the same missed tackle rate.
58:20Like he absolutely abuses receivers in the run game.
58:23Abuses tight ends. Takes on fullbacks. Takes on pulling linemen.
58:26Like I don't know if there's a tougher corner in football right now.
58:30And that's a high bar. I love Lasseter. And let's just stick a corner for mine.
58:34And it's Jacob Parrish for the Buccaneers. If Jacob Parrish is bad for this team, it's not going to be great, Brett.
58:41It's not going to be pretty. Hey, my mood's not going to be very good when we record the show after the Sunday games.
58:48That's all I'm saying. It's not going to be great.
58:51Rondé walking through that door, bud. Rondé walking through that door.
58:54They need somebody to step up at cornerback big time.
58:57And Parrish was great for them last year. He had a league high eight pressures when he was lined as a cornerback.
59:04So we know that Todd Bowles is going to utilize him everywhere.
59:07But the fact of the matter is he was super versatile for them last year.
59:12He was one of five defenders who played more than 100 snaps at linebacker, outside corner, and slot corner.
59:18They love being able to move him everywhere, especially because they've put Antoine Winfield Jr.
59:22specifically back at safety. So they're not rotating him down in the slot.
59:26Jacob Parrish did a lot of that for them last year.
59:29But this year, he basically has to play as an outside corner.
59:33He has to. And somebody has to step up outside on the other side.
59:37You know, Benjamin Morrison, Zion McCollum, one of the guys who are big-time standouts throughout the preseason.
59:42Somebody's got to play well opposite Jacob Parrish. And that is just by saying Jacob Parrish has to be the glue guy.
59:48Because without him, I think the entire secondary in Tampa Bay might fail.
59:52So he is my first one there. Who is your second one?
59:56Jacobi Myers, the other side of the ball. Talk about glue guys.
59:59You look at the difference between the Jaguars offense pre and post-Jacobi Myers.
60:03Dude, he's been a glue guy his whole career.
60:06His whole career he's been a glue guy. He might be the best glue guy at the receiver position in the NFL.
60:12Like, as far as his... The glue-iest receiver in the NFL.
60:16That might be the dumbest thing I've ever said.
60:18I mean, it's true, though. And it wasn't even just like the emergence of Parker Washington.
60:23It was the emergence of both of them together.
60:26Like, even in the run game. Like, there was a play against Denver.
60:30I'll throw it up on screen. The fact that they combined on these combo blocks to seal the edge.
60:35Jacoby got a two-for-one on this play. Sets up an explosive run.
60:39Like, it's that kind of stuff. The dirty work kind of stuff that he really brought to this offense.
60:45That helped power them in the back half of the year to having a really successful run there.
60:50And winning the AFC South. But even if you're just looking at overall, like, EPA per play before and after Jacoby.
60:56Success rate before and after Jacoby. Explosive play rate before and after Jacoby.
61:00Like, the contested catch rate down the field between him and Parker combined.
61:04Like, they would not have functioned without him. Because, unfortunately, BTJ hasn't turned into what we hoped he could yet.
61:10We'll see this year. And then Travis got hurt.
61:12Like, they needed him to be the guy. And he was.
61:16Yeah. I've been such a big fan of his.
61:18Obviously, with the Raiders as well. And, yeah, I think he's the glue-iest.
61:22He's one of the glue-iest guys. And one of the glue-iest guys along the offensive line.
61:27Dude, how good was the Indianapolis Colts offensive line?
61:30Specifically, you know, at the beginning of the season.
61:32First half of the season. When things were really rolling.
61:35And I don't think that Tanner Bordellini, their center, gets enough credit.
61:39Let's pull up the telestrator once again. Let's break a couple of plays down here for you guys.
61:44So, first and foremost, Tanner Bordellini, who has played so well over the last calendar year.
61:49He's a fantastic athlete. The 80th and 90th percentile in so many of the athletic tests that we saw from him at the combine.
61:56The point of the running game, right, is to get the ball in the hands of the running back and for him to get upfield.
62:03But it's not always about just getting all the offensive linemen downhill.
62:07Like, smash-mouth football, it's great. We love it. Hell yeah.
62:10But sometimes you need to be a little bit more creative.
62:13Sometimes you need to be a little bit more horizontal in order to get vertical in the run game.
62:19And that's exactly what Tanner Bordellini does as an athletic center.
62:22You'll see him here. He's going to snap the football and fire off the ball and just drive this defensive lineman all
62:29the way to this part of the field. And you'll see the running back go right behind him.
62:34That's because of that leg drive. That's because of the athleticism, playing with great pad level.
62:39It really is fantastic to see. So, any type of, you know, zone running game where you're really trying to get horizontal before you get vertical.
62:47You see that he's just clearing the way for the running back to be able to get a ton of yards on that play.
62:54You absolutely love to see it. So, here's another example where he's kind of doing the same thing on this next play.
63:00Now, this next play is a little bit different because it's going to involve some combo blocks here.
63:06You've got a little bit of a combo block here before this offensive lineman climbs to the second level.
63:11And it's the same thing here. Tanner Bordellini's got to hold on to this block before the right guard next to him
63:18is able to really get his shoulder pads in between where this defensive lineman is.
63:22And then you'll see Bordellini climb up to the second level.
63:25But the properties are the same here. It's highlighting his athleticism.
63:29That's what we're really looking for here. Snap the ball, getting off the football.
63:33There's a combo block there from him. And then he just gets to the second level and, again, paves the way for
63:39Jonathan Taylor to get those extra yards there. So, that athleticism, highlighting that, it's a major calling card of his game and
63:46why he is so good, has been so good over the last year.
63:50This play really, though, is the one that I want to highlight.
63:53So, you'll see Bordellini here is the center. All right?
63:56He's got a defensive lineman right in front of him, right over the shade of the left shoulder.
64:02Okay? So, you would think that once the ball gets snapped, that's his guy that he has to block.
64:07But, no, the concept of this rushing play, everything is getting horizontal before it is getting vertical.
64:12So, Tanner Bordellini actually has to get, not only does he have to snap the ball quickly, he has to get all
64:19the way to this defensive lineman, reach block him, and create a wall for the running back to run behind him.
64:25That's an incredibly difficult thing to do. And yet, Tanner Bordellini can do it and do it very well.
64:31You see him get off the ball, fire off the ball, get to that defensive lineman, reach block him, have good hand
64:37usage, good pad level, good strength, and there it is.
64:40Creating that rushing lane because he was able to wall off this defensive lineman in a way that you only get to do if you're a top-tier athlete.
64:49That first half of the season, they were just one of the best run-blocking units in the NFL.
64:54And I think Tanner Bordellini is a huge reason why they will need him again this year.
64:59They had Ryan Kelly for all those years. Bordellini stepped in and was just like, boom, hey, I'm here now.
65:05I'm taking the torch from him. We're good to go.
65:08Let's rock and roll this season. I think he's going to do that this year as well.
65:13See, here's how I know this show is going to change sports media.
65:17How many other season preview shows are doing Tanner Bordellini XOs?
65:20Yeah. I don't think any of them. If there's more than one, it's probably less than three.
65:25That's all I'll say there. But that's what we're all about here on this show.
65:29We got a couple of fun things to point out before we get out of here.
65:34We're throwing the challenge flags on these. England is challenging the ruling on the field.
65:39What's on our mind? What we really want to speak about?
65:42Something that's been bothering us that we just need to get off of our chest before we get out of here.
65:48Brett, what is your topic that you want to bring up to the people?
65:52I understand the value of joint practices. We have to do it smarter, right?
65:57The number one rule of these, and I know it just drives coaches crazy.
66:01The number one rule of joint practices, everybody stay off the ground.
66:04I think how the Bills have approached their preseason process this year, their injuries, and this is actually a stat that came
66:11from banged up Bills over on Twitter. You guys follow him.
66:14He's awesome for Bills injury news if you're a Bills fan.
66:17Bills preseason injuries are down 47% year over year.
66:20Wow. Because they are practicing very smartly. They kind of stretched out their practice schedule a little bit, so they weren't doing so many back-to-backs.
66:27Guys had more recovery time. They were cautious about bringing guys back too early, so there wasn't any overuse injuries.
66:33They weren't getting exposed to injuries quite as often.
66:36And now they're actually going into the season healthier than they have in quite a while.
66:41And I think it's because Joe Brady understood, like, it's a long season.
66:45We've got 17 regular season games. We've got four playoff games, ideally, after that.
66:49Like, we can't be losing people in July and August.
66:52Not that we're taking it easy on guys, but we're doing it smart, right?
66:56We're lessening the load because it's such a long season.
66:59We're not throwing teammates into knees. And you look at some teams that are already really banged up, and you look at
67:05the Bills and how they did it. I think that's the model that teams should really adopt here.
67:11All right. Brett, I also have something that I need to get off of my chest here.
67:16This is my challenge flag that I'm throwing. Why are we in the shotgun on third and fourth and short, specifically on the goal line?
67:23I can't stand this. You know how hard teams have to work just to get closer to the goal, whether it's a
67:30first down, whether it's the end zone? I mean, millions.
67:33I'm talking billions of dollars go into making this job a little bit easier.
67:37And now you're going to say, nah, we're good.
67:40Kick it back a little bit. We've got to up the difficulty before we get into the end zone here.
67:45I got these numbers from next-gen stats. On third and short and fourth and short, the success rate is more than 10%
67:52higher when you are not in the shotgun versus in the shotgun.
67:56So when you are under center, it is a 10% higher success rate there.
68:00On the goal line, it's 6% higher. Everything's more difficult in the goal line, but it's 6% higher when you're under center instead of in the shotgun.
68:08Brett, I just don't understand it. Why are we making this more difficult?
68:12Why are we adding yardage to the goal of what we're trying to achieve here?
68:16I'll bet you anything the only exception is the Chiefs during peak Dynasty Chiefs years because they would do just random stuff
68:23on the goal line, like shovel passes to Kelsey.
68:25That's a little different. If you are being creative like that, essentially, if you're Andy Reid, I'll give you a full pass
68:32because of what Andy Reid does when he is on the goal.
68:35If you're one of the greatest coaches of all time, you get a full pass.
68:40By the way, actually, hold on. Bonus challenge flag.
68:42The Chiefs just had an entire dynasty, and who knows?
68:45Maybe it's not over. We'll see this season. You know when the last time Andy Reid won Coach of the Year was?
68:52Ooh. 2002. It's been over two decades. He didn't get any Coach of the Year awards since taking over in Kansas City.
68:58He's been there for over 10 years. They've been to like five Super Bowls.
69:03They've won three of them. No Coach of the Year ever.
69:06That's an absolute travesty. You know what? That's our unified challenge flag.
69:09We're on the same sideline for that one because that's egregious.
69:13We appreciate you guys watching. This is a ton of fun.
69:16Hopefully, you guys had a lot of fun as well.
69:19This is sort of like Brett said in the middle of the show, a little taste of what you guys are going to get every single season.
69:27We're going to be with you every Monday and Friday.
69:30Obviously, on the Monday show, we'll be breaking down what we just saw sort of on Sunday.
69:35And then on the Friday show, we'll really be diving into the film and be breaking down a lot of stuff for
69:42you guys of why things are happening around the NFL the way that they are.
69:46So, yeah, man. Full steam ahead. We're rolling. And we'll see you guys for the next one.
69:51Appreciate you watching. Follow us on the iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcasts and analyze the game like a pro.
69:58And we will see you back here. It's a beautiful day for some football.
70:02The entire draft room groans because you just took the guy they wanted.
70:06There's no better feeling than crushing your fantasy football league.
70:09I'm JJ Zachary Eason, host of the award-winning Late Round Podcast.
70:12Before your draft, our players to target and players to avoid episodes tell you exactly who to circle and who to cross off.
70:19Listen to the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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70:30Are you ready to dominate your fantasy league this season?
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