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0:56Welcome to the NFL Pro Podcast. 2026 season preview show.
0:58If you're listening to this on audio, be sure to subscribe to the NFL Pro Podcast all season long as we deep
1:05dive into the hottest NFL trends and teach you to analyze the game like a pro.
1:10Football! Oh, it's season preview time here on the NFL Pro Channel.
1:13Go boys ready! Hell yeah! Go boys ready! Hell yeah!
1:16Go boys ready! Hell yeah! Today, we're talking about new teams that are poised to take the leap into the postseason.
1:23This year, we're going to identify some secret superstars around the league, give you our season awards, but a couple of picks.
1:29Ones with the head and then with the heart as well.
1:32I'm going to show you a play that Sean Payton designed for Reggie Bush back in 2006 that I think is making a comeback here in 2026.
1:40The man who is a company man right next to me with the NFL Pro Pro.
1:45That is Brett Coleman. And myself, the company man with the NFL Pro shirt.
1:49I am Trevor Sikkema. I appreciate you guys tuning in and watching this season preview here.
1:54But Brett, how are you doing, my friend? I'm good.
1:57This is actually remnants of a Rob Lowe Halloween costume that I got years ago.
2:01No way! I flew out to Buffalo. Wait, is it actually a Rob Lowe costume?
2:06Yes. Yes. I swear to God. I flew out to Buffalo for the first Sunday night game in Buffalo in a long time.
2:13The Packers were visiting. I think Aaron Rodgers was still in the Packers at this time.
2:17And it was Halloween weekend. And so I went trick-or-treating with my buddy and his kids.
2:22Went to the Packers or the Bills game that weekend.
2:25And it's cold in Buffalo in October. So I was like, okay, what Halloween costume can I do that also involves being warm?
2:32And so I got the Rob Lowe trench coat, the Rob Lowe hat, wore it to the game.
2:37I actually got recognized. People identified and were shouting like, Rob Lowe, let's go!
2:41And so I've just had this hat ever since.
2:44I actually can't find this hat anywhere anymore. I need to try to source one because it's starting to get a little beat up.
2:51But it's one of my prized possessions. Brother, we work for the league now.
2:55I think we can get a generic NFL hat for you at some point so you can get a new one.
3:02So we got a lot of things to cover here on this show.
3:06So we got to get it rolling. We've had a lot of coaches, players, as they do every offseason, change spots, have
3:12some new homes, some new threads, whatever you want to call it.
3:16But the question is, is the grass greener? And we're going to identify a couple of different scenarios where somebody is making a change to a different team.
3:24And we're going to talk about whether or not we think that that's actually going to be a good change or not.
3:30So Brett, I'll let you kick this one off.
3:33Who do you want to start with? Who do you want to shout out here for the first player in a new spot?
3:40Well, we wouldn't be a sports show without talking about the Chiefs first and foremost.
3:44Oh, here we go. Here we go. It's going to make sense.
3:48We were supposed to be different. We're not. People tuned into this show to be different.
3:53And now you're bringing up how many times we could say the word Patrick Mahomes in a 60 minutes minute.
3:59No, I'm just kidding. I will not say Mahomes's name at all.
4:02Other than that, in this segment, I promise. The reason why I'm bringing it up.
4:07So the central theme of today, at least one of the central themes of today, is the run game.
4:12How it affects the micro. How it affects the macro.
4:15We're going to be touching on this a lot.
4:18And so when I bring up the Chiefs first, it's really because of the effect that Kenneth Walker has on their run game.
4:25This is one of the biggest offseason additions around the league because this team was straight up awful in terms of generating explosive plays with their run game.
4:33It's been that way for quite a while. And if you're looking at league wide trends, drives that have an explosive play
4:40end in a touchdown 42% of the time, like just over 42% of the time.
4:44That's a lot. Yeah. If you don't get an explosive play, it goes down to 4.3%.
4:49So this league runs on explosives and however you can get them, right?
4:53You know, one of the oldest adages that I've operated on is the offensive line sets the floor for a run game.
4:59The running back sets the ceiling. The floor was actually pretty high for the Chiefs running backs last year.
5:05This was a good team as far as average yards before contact per attempt.
5:09And if you're looking at the Chiefs running back room the last couple years, they're the only team in the NFL that was sub 7% explosive run rate.
5:17Like that's atrocious. And a lot of it is because Kareem Hunt just can't break tackles like he used to.
5:23There's a whole bunch of examples where, hey, we got all of our guys accounted for in the blocking scheme.
5:29You need to make one miss on the edge.
5:32And he just couldn't do it. Again, Hunt was effective in that first half, but not on this play.
5:38You contrast that with Kenneth Walker, who was exceptional at making his guy miss.
5:42It's about a 37 yarder from here to try to go up two scores.
5:46And they're going to keep it conservative from Myers.
5:49Walker on the run. He may bust a touchdown.
5:51He had a 14.9% explosive run rate last year.
5:54Third best in the NFL among all running backs with at least 100 carries.
5:58And the difference between the Chiefs run game last year and the Seahawks run game, I always go back to ceiling and floor, right?
6:05Ceiling of a run game is set by the running back.
6:08The floor is set by the offensive line. The Chiefs offensive line actually set up the running backs for success way better than people think.
6:16It's just they were so atrocious in terms of yards after contact per attempt.
6:20Yeah. Meanwhile, you have Kenneth Walker, who's exceptional after contact.
6:23He can actually turn those lanes that the Chiefs are going to give him into explosive runs and therefore make this offense just better by default.
6:31And the Seahawks are averaging about eight yards a carry.
6:34I love how you put that there with the offensive line sets the floor, the running back sets the ceiling, because that
6:40goes back to my scouting philosophy as well. There's a lot of running backs that can work for a run game, but how many truly elevate?
6:48And that's sort of how I've tried to make sure that my scouting process is really identifying and prioritizing running backs that elevate.
6:55I thought Kenneth Walker, when he was coming out in his draft season, absolutely a running back that would elevate.
7:01He has done that with the Seahawks, and I do agree.
7:04I think he is the best chance to do that that they have had in a long time.
7:09I mean, the last one they had that was over 10% was Clyde's as worth a layer, and that was a half decade ago.
7:16Like, it's been a while. This goes into the deeper, like, do running backs matter, contract value discussion, which I know we'll
7:23dive deep into sort of at some point this season.
7:26But that's really where it stems from, exactly what you just said.
7:29The running back is the one that has to elevate the ceiling of the run game.
7:34If you don't have a back that can either make guys miss in a phone booth, get those yards after contact, get
7:41those explosive plays, you're always, I think, going to be wanting more.
7:44So I'm super excited about Kenneth Walker as well.
7:47All trolling you aside, like this was a good way to kick things off.
7:51I think that this is going to be exciting to watch.
7:54And, you know, I want to go to Minnesota for my first one.
7:58I understand that things were not great in Minnesota last year.
8:02Most of what you heard there was just the craziness of the quarterback position.
8:06Guys in and out. McCarthy is no good. And it just felt like everything took a step back.
8:11Brett, do we forget that this team won nine games last year?
8:15Like, this is... Somehow. This is somehow, someway. But I'll tell you what the somehow, someway was.
8:20Kevin O'Connell and Brian Flores, right? This is still this coaching staff.
8:23So, yeah. Count me excited for Kyler Murray being a part of this coaching staff.
8:28And you know what? I think Kyler has a career year this year.
8:31I think Kyler has, in some ways, one of the best years of his entire career.
8:36I think he throws for over 4,000 yards for the first time in his career, if he's fully healthy.
8:42And the reason why is because I think a lot of people look at Kyler in this Kevin O'Connell offense and they say, oh, he doesn't fit.
8:50Like, he doesn't fit and he's not going to work out.
8:53Just because a guy didn't necessarily run it or hasn't necessarily run it doesn't mean he's not going to be a fit.
9:00He doesn't fit and he's not going to run basically exclusive spread shotgun stuff throughout college and the NFL.
9:05But I'm actually really excited about him in a more under center, heavier play action, heavier boot game type of an offense.
9:12Because when you go back to Sam Darnold two years ago, when he was with Minnesota, he had the most rushing attempts
9:18of his career, most rushing first downs of his career, and the third most rushing yards, which is pretty much close to
9:25like where his rushing career high was. Because you look at Kyler since 2019, since he came in the league, he's got
9:31almost 2,000 yards rushing, 12 touchdowns, 104 first downs.
9:34All of those numbers are top five around the league when it comes to a rushing quarterback.
9:39So I think that this is going to be great for him because people look at this offense as such a negative for Kyler Murray.
9:47I think Kevin O'Connell is the best coach he's ever had.
9:50I think Justin Jefferson's the best wide receiver he's ever had.
9:53He's had other good wide receivers, you know, like when DeHop was there and wide receiver talent wasn't really the big issue.
10:00But I just think that there's so much there to actually believe in.
10:04And in my opinion, there's too many people thinking, oh, he hasn't done it, so he won't be good at it.
10:10I actually think this is going to be the best thing for Kyler Murray in his career.
10:15And I think he's going to have a career year in a lot of ways.
10:19I'm going to put you on the spot. Their first three games this year, hosting Green Bay at Chicago at Tampa.
10:25What's more likely? 0-3, 3-0. I think what's more likely is 3-0.
10:29I would say so too. I don't think they go 3-0, but to your question, I think it's more likely they go 3-0 than they go 0-3.
10:37Yeah. They won more games last year than the Panthers did.
10:40Panthers won a division. Now, again, not a super high bar to clear, but like the third or fourth place team in
10:47a division won more than a division winner in the South.
10:50It's just, the NFC's crazy, man. They are. They are.
10:53All right. Who's next? Who's in a new place that you're looking forward to seeing?
10:58I'm really looking forward to seeing what Mike McDaniel and Amari and Hampton do together.
11:02After watching Amari and Hampton last year, it's honestly kind of the inverse of what we talked about with the Chiefs.
11:08The Chargers' average yards before contact per attempt was abysmal.
11:11Their average yards after contact per attempt was awesome.
11:14A lot of that was because of Amari and Hampton.
11:17If you're looking at running backs with at least 50 carries last year, Hampton was tied for third in missed tackle force
11:23percentage at 30.6%, which is a crazy high number for that large of a sample size.
11:28And if you look at carries like, say, the one that he had against the Raiders, right?
11:33This was a couple plays before they got a 60-yard touchdown.
11:36It was a third down. They had three shots at him to at least try to trip him up, which, you know, you look at Kareem Hunt's tape.
11:45He probably will get tripped up on these. Amari and Hampton was able to stay on his feet from not one, not two, but three guys.
11:52Eventually, the fourth guy got him. That was an explosive gain on third down.
11:57They scored two plays later. The rookie shows his power.
12:00They were not a very good team as far as blocking for him last year, but he still made something out of
12:06nothing so much that I have to imagine if their offensive line is remotely healthy this year.
12:11They've already lost a guy, so it's the Chargers.
12:14Bear with me. If they are remotely healthy, like maybe Slaughter is that guy at center.
12:19Go Gators. Just had to slip it in there.
12:21I have to imagine he's getting 1,300 plus rushing, maybe add a couple hundred receiving on top of there, and he's going
12:28to be the most productive running back the Chargers have had since Ryan Matthews.
12:32When Ryan Matthews went to the Chargers, I was like, this is just the passing of the torch with LaDainian Thomas, and
12:38I was like, here we go, baby. Another decade.
12:41I know injuries, obviously, unfortunately showed up Ryan, slowed up Ryan Matthews, but I agree with you.
12:46I love this call. I love McDaniel as the run game orchestrator because I think that they're going to get to the
12:53outside a lot, go straight into what you were talking about, honestly, with Jake Slater being a zone blocking guy.
12:59And anytime that you get Omari and Hampton to the outside and you get him one-on-one, man, he is too big a
13:05lot of times for corners to bring down, and he is too fast, and he is too quick for linebackers to bring down sometimes, too.
13:13I think he's in for a major, major year in Mike McDaniels offense.
13:16I agree. All right, bring us home. Who you got?
13:19I'm going to take the people on a little journey here, all right?
13:23Because earlier this offseason, the Miami Dolphins traded Jalen Waddell to the Denver Broncos, right?
13:28For a first-round pick. High price. High price. I think it's absolutely going to be worth it.
13:33When you look at the Broncos, since Sean Payton's got there, they've spread the ball out a ton.
13:38You know, guys, you have a target share in the low 20s, and it's just, it's a lot of different options for
13:45places where any of the quarterbacks, Bo Nix, obviously, the latest one, to be able to throw the football.
13:50And some people look at that and they go, oh, okay, this is just this era of Sean Payton.
13:56I don't think it is. I think Sean Payton wants to go back to what he had with Alvin Kamara and Michael
14:02Thomas when those guys were averaging above 30% of a target share.
14:06And when I look at Jalen Waddell, I think that Waddell is going to be top 10 in targets this season for any position.
14:13Running back, tight end, wide receiver. I think that that trade is going to look so well worth it because I think
14:20that the way that Payton wants to get him involved is reminiscent, not just of great wide receivers he's had in the past.
14:27I think he's thinking about Alvin Kamara and the usage out of the backfield as well.
14:31When you look at the last two years, the Broncos are second in the NFL in wide receivers that have played snaps in the backfield.
14:39And I got some plays to sort of highlight what I'm talking about here.
14:43So this clip here is from 2019. We're going to start with 2019.
14:47We're going to start with Alvin Kamara and the way that Sean Payton sort of used him.
14:52And the whole time I want you guys to think about this route combination.
14:56I want you to think about using Jalen Waddell out of the backfield.
15:00Think about his speed, okay? Let's start here by looking at Alvin Kamara.
15:04So first off, Kamara is lined up on the outside when they break the huddle.
15:08He is motioning back to the backfield and he's going to stand next to Drew Brees.
15:13So right off the bat, we sort of have an easy connection to Waddell being an outside wide receiver and then motioning him into the backfield.
15:21So we're going to look at two route concepts that are very similar here.
15:25The first one here in 2019 is this slant flat concept.
15:28And what it's going to do is it's going to take advantage of zone coverage.
15:32So you have these defenders right here that he's these deep zone coverage defenders.
15:37And then you're going to have this defender come here.
15:40There's a zone and this defender is going to occupy this zone.
15:43You're going to notice that the slant flat combination is going to carry this defender to the middle of the field and
15:50it's going to freeze this zone defender, which is going to open up all this space right here for Kamara to operate under.
15:56So if we let this play out, you see the slant, the flat.
16:00Look at all that space. Now, again, think about this route here, but it's Jalen Waddell speed.
16:05If Kamara is the prioritized player, look at all this space that he has to work with.
16:10Again, you get the ball in his hands. If he's the primary read, I think this goes for a touchdown, but that's not enough.
16:18I want to go a little bit deeper into the bag here.
16:21This is something that Sean Payton has been doing for a long, long time, getting speed out of the backfield.
16:27I'm going to take you all the way back to 2006.
16:30This is the NFC championship game here between the New Orleans Saints and the Chicago Bears.
16:35So this is instead of a slant and then a flat route here, it's a slant and a wheel route.
16:41Now, this is going to be against man coverage.
16:44Okay. Let's let this play out so we can see a little bit clearer.
16:48You see that this is a single high safety.
16:50Everybody else is in man coverage here. Okay. They're in man coverage basically everywhere across the board.
16:56And this is going to create this slant route.
16:58It's going to create this natural pick for this defender to, you know, he's not going to be able to keep up
17:05with Reggie Bush anyways, but Reggie Bush is just going to have this little bit of separation and then his speed does the rest.
17:12So we see how this plays out here. That is exactly what happens.
17:16Again, I say, think about this play with Jalen Waddle's speed.
17:19Bush wide open 30, 40, putting a move midfield.
17:22Can anybody catch Bush? He's the fastest guy on the field and nobody will.
17:2620, 15, 10, 5, bye bye baby. I think that Sean Payton views Jalen Waddle as that type of player, as an
17:32Alvin Kamara type of a player, as a Reggie Bush type of an athlete.
17:37And remember when he was talking about that Joker position a couple of years ago, right?
17:41And he never got that player that we all felt like was perfect there.
17:45Well, now he's got that player. Now he has that Joker position type of player.
17:50You want to hear a wild Sean Payton Broncos connection that also kind of loops in San Diego.
17:55So Reggie Bush, San Diego kid, right? So Sean Payton, after he was done playing, spent 87 with the Bears, a year
18:02or two later, he's at San Diego State starting his coaching career.
18:05From that staff, he learns about the slot option route, which is like a brand new thing back in football, back in the day.
18:12That staff was in the Dennis Erickson tree. That route concept was in the Dennis Erickson offense.
18:17Dennis Erickson got that offense from Jack Elway, who got it from his son's high school team at Granada Hills in LA.
18:24So bring it all around 40 years later. If I ever play you in NFL Jeopardy, I am screwed.
18:30Dude, I might as well just give you the charity money up front.
18:34I'll cut you the check beforehand and we could just not waste everybody's time for the episode.
18:39What a pull that was. But yes, that is how I see Jalen Waddle being used.
18:43And if you guys see these exact plays and concepts at some point this season, you just remember where you heard it
18:50first here on the NFL Pro Channel. I'm just saying, you better come back.
18:54That's why that happens. Everyone who watches this video, you owe us a subscription.
18:58Hey, hey, hey. If you're a f***ing dog, I need to see it today.
19:02If you're a f***ing dog, I need to f***ing feel it today.
19:06All right, let's talk about some teams that are poised to make the leap.
19:10We're going to talk about some teams that didn't make the playoffs last year that are going to this year.
19:16But of course, if you're adding teams to the playoffs, you get to subtract teams from the playoffs too.
19:22So Brett, talk to me about the first team that you see making the playoffs this year and why.
19:27Speaking of Sean Payton connections, I want to talk about the Cowboys.
19:31Their defense was bad last year. About 30 points per game is what they allowed.
19:35First of all, I think they're going to be a top 12 scoring defense this year.
19:40If they were even average last year, if they were 16th, 16th was about 23 points per game.
19:45So literally a touchdown less per game. If they held every team they played against last year to 23 points, they would have gone 12 and five.
19:53That's how bad their defense was, right? They would have pushed for a one seed or at least gotten close.
19:59So when I look at this team, the offense we know is going to be sick for all the reasons everybody talks about.
20:06Dak, CD, Pickens, Javante had a resurgent year. Like it's a good offense.
20:10If the defense can just execute better specifically on second down this year, almost by default, they're going to be an average defense.
20:17So kind of walk with me here on this.
20:19After they got Quinn and Williams in the post Quinn and Williams world, they went from 32nd in rushing success rate allowed.
20:26They were literally dead last in the NFL all the way up to 14th became an above average run defense as far
20:33as success rate allowed just from Quinn and existing, right?
20:36Massive jump. So they were a good first down defense.
20:38The issue was they got teams into a lot of second and longs and then completely crumbled.
20:44They were third worst in the NFL in offensive success rate allowed in second and long.
20:48DC's love being in second and long. If you're in second and medium, second and short, okay, now it's kind of ambiguous
20:55as far as run pass rates go. If you're in second and long, most teams are going to treat that as a
21:01passing down, which then favors the defense. The Cowboys, I mean, still they had the ninth highest pass rate, at least called
21:08pass rate against them on second and long. They knew teams were going to throw against them.
21:13They couldn't stop it. Not because the pass rush was bad.
21:16Pass rush was actually pretty decent, but 63.6% of all of these passes against them on second and long were quick throws under two and a half seconds.
21:24They couldn't cover anybody, but I don't necessarily think it was the player's fault.
21:29I mean, you're a draft guy. I'm a draft guy.
21:32We graded all these guys coming out. We like Revel, right?
21:35Bland a couple of years ago had a tremendous year.
21:38I don't think the players just got bad. But if you're looking at how they were used in the Iberflues system, Cooper
21:44Degene from week 11 on had more press snaps than either of the giant Cowboys corners.
21:49They were not letting them do what they do best.
21:52They would play a bunch of man, but they would make them play man in space and then wonder why the ball
21:59was getting out in two and a half seconds.
22:01Nobody could stop anything. So the pass rush had no shot of effect in the game because the ball was out.
22:08The DBs were not being played to their ideal skill set.
22:11Now you've got Christian Parker coming in. What does he like to do?
22:15A lot of match zone coverages, which means we're really playing man coverage, but with zone coverage principles.
22:20A lot more opportunities to get up on the line of scrimmage and press receivers and just not concede space.
22:26I still think they're going to be a good run defense because of Quinnen and Barham and Overshown and obviously Caleb Downs.
22:32But now they're actually going to have their stuff together on second and long and get to more third and long opportunities.
22:39This team, I think, was like conservatively bottom 10 in terms of third down plays run against them in the back half
22:46of last year because teams didn't get to third down.
22:49They just converted on second down. If you win second down here, it's going to be a good defense.
22:54And if they're a good defense with that offense, they could be like the two seed in the NFC.
23:00I agree. I mean, this is a team that I also picked to make the playoffs.
23:05I think Christian Parker is going to utilize his defense and their skill set in a lot better ways.
23:10They're going to play a lot more sort of zone because he's a Fangio guy, so he's going to want to stay in that too high world.
23:18But they'll play like zone matching where, okay, like a lot of zone is going on, but then the guys on the
23:25outside a lot of times are going to be afforded to play.
23:28Man, like their skill set actually says they should.
23:31You got a better front. You got Barham and overshone at the linebacker level.
23:35Like I'm super excited. So the Cincinnati Bengals are the team that I think makes the playoffs.
23:40One of the teams that I think is poised to make the lead back to the playoffs this year.
23:46And the reason why, yeah, we can see here and we can say like Joe Burrow, Jamar Chase, Tee Higgins.
23:52Like we can talk about the offense. Brett, we need to talk about both sides of the trenches.
23:57And one side of the trench is obvious, right?
24:00When you make a big splash for Dexter Lawrence, it's going to be better for this team.
24:05I know they don't want Trey Hendrickson anymore, but it's going to be better.
24:09They were so bad in the middle of that defensive front last year.
24:13His presence alone is going to be huge from a pass rush perspective, from a run stopping perspective, and from just a
24:19planetary perspective of what his gravitational pull and everything does to both his side of the trenches and the other side of the trenches.
24:26But I want to kind of focus on the offensive line a little bit here because I don't think enough people realize
24:33that the Bengals offensive line is not what it used to be.
24:37And I say that in the best way. When you look at this team, they're starting five offensive linemen last year.
24:43Only one of them had a quarterback pressure percentage above 7%.
24:46And it was Amarius Mims, who I think Mims is going to have a much better year this year anyways.
24:52Now, what does 7% pressure rate mean? Well, guys like Darnell Wright, Peter Skaronsky, Chris Lindstrom, Mike McGlinchey, those guys all had pressure percentages above 7%.
25:00So four out of the five spots on the Bengals offensive line had below a 7% pressure rate.
25:05And then again, the only one that didn't was Mims, who I think is going to take a leap this year anyways.
25:12Because there is athletic and just size progression that I think is naturally going to happen with him if he is fully healthy.
25:18It's kind of what we thought of him coming out of Georgia.
25:22And I think that's really manifesting right now. So give me the Bengals, man.
25:26Give me the Bengals to get back to the playoffs.
25:29But I think win that division. And I think this is an AFC championship team.
25:34And I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bengals making it back to the Super Bowl as well.
25:39I think this is a Super Bowl ceiling type of a team.
25:42So first of all, I agree. I think they win the division.
25:46But I also think the Ravens make the playoffs as well.
25:49I think two teams go to the playoffs from the AFC North.
25:53So I'm going to have the Ravens as my other making the leap team.
25:57And here's why. Ravens fans know this well. This team was really bad from a macro perspective over the last few years.
26:04I thought they were pretty good in that run in 2023.
26:07Then they got to the AFC championship game and just kind of lost their minds a little bit.
26:12And then since then, they've really been bad in the macro game, right?
26:16When am I kicking a field goal versus going for it?
26:19When am I punting versus going for it? When am I really leaning on Derrick Henry?
26:24When am I leaning on Lamar Jackson? It just felt like a lot of their micro play calls never made sense in the macro.
26:31And so you bring in Jesse Minner. You bring in, in particular, Declan Doyle, who comes from this Ben Johnson offensive school
26:38of the micro is in service of the macro.
26:40And I think it's just going to look very different.
26:43I think concepts will be similar. I think techniques will be similar as far as the offensive line.
26:49I still think it's going to be a bunch of wide zone, which the Ravens have done.
26:54But I think it's all going to be in service of a more coherent macro.
26:58And I want people to walk with me here on this.
27:01Everything the Bears did was knowing in their back pocket, they were really good in third and short.
27:0772% conversion rate on third and short. They were one of the three best teams in the NFL at it.
27:13So that was always in their back pocket. So to them, first down was a great opportunity to throw the ball because
27:19really, as long as they could get to third and short, they were golden.
27:23They had the fifth highest pass rate on first down.
27:26Their play calls on second down really depended on whether or not that ball was complete on first down.
27:32Typically, like a normal yards per attempt on first down is going to be what?
27:36Seven, seven and a half. If that's complete, you're in second and short already.
27:41Once they got to second and short, they were hyper aggressive.
27:44This was a stat that I got from Ryan Paganetti.
27:47Great stats guy. Worth a follow. Always tweets really interesting stuff.
27:50Among 68 play callers with 70 plus games calling plays since 1999, Johnson ranks first in second and short aggression rate as
27:57far as throwing the ball down the field. No current projected 2026 play caller is even within 17 percentage points of him on second and one.
28:04They throw the ball on second and short. Why?
28:07Because if it's incomplete, who cares? We're good on third and short.
28:11We're already set up for that. So what if the ball's incomplete on that first down pass and they're in second and long?
28:17You would think that's where you throw it again.
28:20They don't. They run the ball. They actually had the second highest run rate on second and long because they were just
28:27trying to get to third and manageable. They were a really good team on third and manageable.
28:32What's interesting about that is when they would run the ball to get to third and manageable, where they were on the field determined what they did next.
28:40Again, micro in service of the macro. Once they crossed the 50, they treated third and long like it's another rundown.
28:46They would run the ball a lot on third and long because they're like, well, we're already across the 50.
28:52We're playing with two downs here. So they would turn third down essentially into second down once they were in opponent territory.
28:59If they were in their own territory, they would throw more.
29:02And again, they were really good at it. And so you see this pattern of our run pass rates, our personnel groupings,
29:08our formations, everything is kind of keeping that third down in the back of their mind because their whole philosophy is let's just keep getting first downs.
29:16If we string enough first downs together, we're going to score.
29:20And we know that Ben Johnson wants to be the highest scoring offense of all time.
29:25I think we're going to see a the Bears do this a lot again this year.
29:29But I also think we're going to see the Ravens do it a lot.
29:33I think their play calling is going to make sense from a macro perspective, which for the first time in years is something I could say about Baltimore.
29:42It's this like no surrender sort of like philosophy when it comes to we have four downs to get the first down.
29:48We don't have three and then a punt. We have four downs to get the first down.
29:53We see teams around the league being really aggressive with that.
29:57But obviously Ben Johnson's philosophy over the last couple of years goes into that, which sort of leads right into my point
30:03for my last team that I think makes the playoffs this year.
30:07And that's the Lions. I think the Lions are back in the playoffs this year.
30:11I think they're winning the division in the toughest division in football.
30:15I think that they actually come out on top because when you look at this team last year, still an OK year
30:21from them, especially given the fact that, man, they had so many injuries.
30:25They lost both of their coordinators. I think that they're back on track this upcoming season, specifically from an efficiency standpoint on
30:32those key downs that you mentioned, third and fourth down.
30:35Now, this team still scored a lot of points last year.
30:38They still racked up a ton of yards. But the big difference, I think, with the Lions last year was they just
30:44weren't nearly as efficient on third and fourth down.
30:47When they had Ben Johnson there, Ben Johnson was a whiz at setting third down up to be manageable, getting it ready
30:54for fourth down if that was the best case for them there, and then converting on that fourth down.
30:59They just were not the same without Ben Johnson.
31:02And I think that they're going to be much more cohesive and much more confident when it comes to those money downs.
31:08I certainly hope that this team isn't nearly as hurt on the defensive side of the ball as they were last season.
31:15And if those things are true, I think that they do have the right coaching staff.
31:20I still think they do have the right players, and I think they're going to once again light up the scoreboard.
31:26But beyond that, control the football more than they were able to last year.
31:30So give me the Lions to win what is the toughest division in the NFL.
31:35Teams that missed the playoffs, because if we're adding teams, we've got to subtract teams.
31:39So really quick, who are your two teams to miss the playoffs, since you talked about two teams to now make the playoffs this year?
31:46Well, we've talked positively about the entire NFC North except for the Packers, which is unfortunate, right?
31:51Because they're a good team. They really are. They had some tough decisions to make in the offseason because they were up against it cap-wise.
31:59They had to spend their money wisely, and so they lost a couple quality players.
32:03It's just, it's tough to project how successful this run game is going to be when there's been so much upheaval up
32:10front for the last couple of years. Not to mention, okay, Tucker Craft is going to be back for week one, we think.
32:17Is he going to look like Tucker Craft, right?
32:19If you're looking at the on-off splits for this offense, they are a substantively different team offensively when Tucker Craft is on the field.
32:26If he looks like himself, okay, great. We're cooking with gas.
32:30But I have even deeper worries about the defense because as dramatic as the splits are for Tucker Craft, they are way
32:36more dramatic for Micah when he's on and off the field, and he's not going to be there week one.
32:42Their quick pressure rate damn near doubles when he's on the field.
32:46They have other players we like. Edron Cooper is great.
32:49Xavier McKinney is great. You can't function without Micah Parsons there, and he's not going to be there.
32:54I worry they're going to have a hole that's too deep to dig out of.
32:59Who's the other team? Because you got one more.
33:01What's the other one? I mean, it's the same pick that everybody else has, the Steelers.
33:06And there are parts of the Steelers that I like a lot, right?
33:10Young, talented offensive line. I think the run game is going to be fine.
33:14I think the defense has pieces I really like.
33:17But there is no universe where you can keep making the playoffs in a tough AFC where you have the Bengals and
33:23the Ravens who I think are going to be better this year.
33:27You can't make the playoffs in that division, in my opinion, when your average completion traveled 3.4 yards past the line of scrimmage.
33:34That's basically a below average run as far as air yards per completion.
33:37Yeah. If they're not an explosive passing game, it would take like a generational yards after catch year by DK Metcalf to be a great explosive pass game.
33:46It's going to look a lot different, though. You know, like they're just there.
33:50I still think they're going to get the running backs involved in the passing game a lot because this team either led
33:56the NFL or was second in the NFL in targets to running backs last year, which is why the average set of
34:03the target is so low because Aaron Rodgers didn't want to get hit.
34:07So he's like, here you go, Jalen. You know, here you go, Kenneth.
34:11Hope you don't die. I'm just dumping it off every single time.
34:14But I think it's going to look a little bit better from an average at the target standpoint.
34:20But I do agree with you. I think just the fact that the Ravens and the Bengals, in my opinion, are going to be that much better.
34:28I think it's going to leave the Steelers out.
34:30So I took the obvious ones. What about yours?
34:33Who do you have missing the playoffs? I have the Niners sort of barely missing the playoffs this year.
34:39A lot of new, still some injuries that they're working through.
34:42McCaffrey coming off just such a high usage year for him last year.
34:46You know, Brandon Ayuk obviously not being a part of this.
34:49Ricky Pearsall not being a part of this. A lot of people are super excited about Deshaun Shribbling and you should be.
34:56I had him as a top 60 player as well.
34:58But man, that's a lot to ask of a rookie to basically carry your passing attack.
35:03I know they got Mike Evans as well, but we'll see what he is like in a new spot.
35:09But I just feel like there's just too many uncertainties, I feel, with the Niners to be in a division with the Seahawks and the Rams.
35:17And to also specifically be in a conference where we already talked about how we think the Cowboys are going to be a lot better.
35:24We already talked about how basically everybody in the NFC North could make the playoffs.
35:28I think they're going to just miss it this year.
35:31And then my other team is Carolina. I just don't think that Carolina is going to repeat as division champs.
35:37It is a wide open NFC South, but I like the Bucks and the Saints more than I like Carolina to repeat.
35:44Again, I have question marks in the trenches. Getting Jalen Phillips is huge for them.
35:48He has to be huge this season. But you're down what was your schedule starting two offensive tackles.
35:54Can Monroe Freeling really step up the way that he needs to?
35:57I mean, if they end up making the playoffs, I think Monroe Freeling, we're going to look back and we're going to
36:04be like, what a hell of a pick that was because he's going to have to have an incredible year for them.
36:10But they're still figuring things out in the vertical passing game.
36:14Their run game hasn't looked great this preseason. Is it going to be able to start right out of the gate and play well?
36:21So just too much up and down for me for the Panthers to repeat.
36:25So I think the Panthers are out. They were a team that very much relied on low possession counts to win games last year.
36:32Right. The more possessions are in a game, you would think that it means that the more talented teams or rather just
36:39the more cohesive teams, as they get more possessions to pull away from you, they're going to pull away from you.
36:45The Panthers didn't want that to happen. So their average offensive and defensive possessions was like nine and a half last year.
36:51Right. In a sport where there's only so many points you can score per possession, the Panthers limited your ability to score
36:58a lot of points to pull away. And so they would drag you down in the mud and beat you with experience.
37:04Right. This year, I'm not sure they're going to be able to do that again.
37:09I think they're going to have to like actually go toe to toe in these games where you have 11, 12 possessions
37:15and you have to score at the same rate as the other team.
37:19We'll see if they can do it. But I'm in agreement.
37:22I think the Bucks win the division. All right.
37:25We have a little quick segment in the middle of the show.
37:29And I want you guys at home to also play along with this.
37:33Pause the video where you need to, because we're going to play stat or cap.
37:37It's essentially like two truths and a lie. Right.
37:40I'm going to present three stats that Trevor has not seen.
37:43He's going to tell me which one is the lie.
37:46And I want you guys to tell me in the comments if you also got it correct.
37:51I have these stats in front of me. I was actually very surprised at the answer.
37:56So I'm not sure if you're going to get it.
37:59Oh, okay. All right. All right. I said that I said that I wouldn't beat you in jeopardy, but I could, I
38:05think I can get you in a one question versus one question, two truths and a lie.
38:10So let's do this. Let's, let's lock in. I'm locked in here.
38:14All right. Your three stats. The Bengals led the league in called pass rate last year, six quarterbacks through for 1000 plus yards just from under center.
38:22And the 2025 season had the highest rate of two tight end sets.
38:26What's the lie? I think the first one's a lie and I'll kind of like talk through it as people are sort
38:32of thinking about their answer as well. We, we talked a little bit when we answer some of your Q and a
38:39questions in our initial episode here on the channel.
38:41And we talked about sort of the rise of 12 personnel and how I mentioned 12 teams last year had 100 play action snaps from under center.
38:49So I think that whenever, a lot of times when you're doing that, that leans into heavier personnel.
38:55So I don't think it's the tight end one.
38:57And when I think about the Bengals specifically, Chase Brown had a, uh, I believe this is a from the metric system
39:04here, a crap ton of carries and touches. So they actually involved Chase Brown a lot last year, not a fully healthy borough season.
39:11So I'm going to say that a is the lie.
39:14So you're correct. Let's go for, for bonus points that aren't real.
39:18Uh, which team did lead the league in called pass rate?
39:21It's going to seem so obvious when you hear it.
39:24First thought, first thought was lions, but they have Gibbs.
39:27So I don't think that that's the case. I don't think they would have put that much on Caleb's plate.
39:33Was it the Cowboys? No, you're going to kick yourself when you hear it.
39:37The Cardinals. Oh yeah. Of course. Yeah. Right. Come on.
39:40For like 50 times a game. I should have known that.
39:43I should have known that. This is yours. By the way, shout out to the fine folks over at NGS for, uh,
39:50getting us these stats, the database that they have and the researchers that we have over at NFL media.
39:55Insane. I cannot wait to take advantage of their knowledge and expertise of the platform all season long.
40:01All right, here we go. These are the three statements.
40:04Will Anderson recorded the most pressures in the league in 2025.
40:07Miles Garrett has recorded the quickest get off time in each of the last four seasons, minimum of 250 snaps.
40:13And Patrick Queen missed more tackles than any other defender in a season in the NGS era last year.
40:18What do we think it is? Ooh, man, that's tough.
40:21I think number three is, yeah, I'll go. Number three is a lot.
40:25I think Patrick Queen ideally had a better tackle rate than that.
40:29I hope he did. He did not. Oh, no.
40:32He did not. Hold on. Let me look up Patrick Queen's salary right now.
40:36More than us, brother. More than us. The lie was actually a will.
40:40Anderson did not record the most pressures in the league last season.
40:43Aiden Hutchinson led the NFL with 90 pressures last year.
40:46I think one of the craziest Aiden Hutchinson stats I've ever seen was, so when he broke his leg a couple years
40:53ago, I think it was like week 11 or week 12.
40:56He broke it in like week six. I'm pretty sure it took another six weeks for somebody to pass him in pressures that year.
41:03Yes. Yes. Absurd. So you know why I know that specifically?
41:06Because in that God mode Aiden Hutchinson like six games, whatever it was, the Bucs, they played the Bucs in like in that span.
41:13The Bucs were down, I think, both of their starting offensive tackles, if not one of them.
41:18And Aiden Hutchinson ate him alive. Hutchinson had like double digit pressures.
41:22I don't know. Don't quote me on that one.
41:25But he had like double digit pressures in one game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers where he would just, Mayfield was running for his life.
41:32So I do remember that. Aiden Hutchinson got in there and nailed him.
41:36All right. I want to hit on a trend here.
41:39Unfortunately, it's one that Trevor might not like because we're holding a little funeral for the air raid offense.
41:45Which I know your favorite thing. May it rest.
41:47May it rest. But I will say, if you're looking at what NFL teams are telling us with their moves this offseason,
41:54really the last couple offseasons, the air raid is, and I want to say dead, it's not doing well in the NFL.
42:00You have about 20% of the starting quarterbacks in the league that have some kind of connection to the Cliff Kingsbury, Lincoln
42:07Riley, even like the old BYU air raid. Connection there.
42:10What's the pop culture game? It's like eight separations of Kevin Bacon or something like that.
42:15Yeah. The Bacon number to 80 BYU. All you need is three to get to Cliff Kingsbury, it feels like, over the last five years.
42:22All right. Lincoln Riley guy. And so Cliff by association.
42:25Buccaneers. Baker was a Lincoln and a Cliff guy at various points in college, I believe.
42:30The Browns kind of converted him to being more under center centric when he was early in his career, which was good for him.
42:37But again, he kind of came out of that shotgun air raid world.
42:41And then you got the Chiefs with Andy Reid, who again, like he was there when the deep magic was written.
42:47He was a player at BYU in the 80s when they started this whole thing.
42:51And so that was honestly what I should have seen coming because I wasn't, I was famously like not a huge Patrick
42:58Mahomes guy in his draft class because we had never seen an air raid quarterback work in the NFL.
43:04And then of course he went to the coach that knows the air raid better than anybody.
43:09And it's like, okay, of course it worked there.
43:11But even Mahomes over the last few years, more under center, more quote unquote traditional looking like they're kind of getting away from it as well.
43:19And so there's such a huge swath of these quarterbacks.
43:22They're not going to be in gun as much.
43:25It's not just going to be inside zone all day, less RPOs, less screen, more under center, more play action.
43:31We're all kind of going back to 2000s football.
43:33And I think the reason why, you know, if we're talking about like how we get to this point, it's because one college football, right?
43:41Bill Parcell says the NFL can only take what the college game is giving them, right?
43:45There's some obvious changes that the pro game will bring just because of the elevated strength, size and athleticism.
43:51But if college is trending towards a certain way, a lot of times the pros are going to try to take advantage
43:58of those concepts and skill sets and things like that.
44:01So when you look at college, you get, you look at these teams that were just lighting up the scoreboard in the 2010s.
44:07And then Patrick Mahomes, there were a lot of people that thought it wasn't going to work with Patrick Mahomes, but he
44:14gets to the league and they spread things out and he just shreds these single high defenses.
44:19Anybody that was playing cover one, cover three, there was all this base of the seam and they were just punishing these defenses for it.
44:26Terry kills wide open. The Chiefs go 73 yards in one play.
44:30When you look back in 2017, the NFL teams were 111 personnel, 58.7% of the time.
44:35Then a couple of years later, about five years later, it goes all the way up to 61.4.
44:40But last year, it's all the way down to 56.3.
44:43Now, if you look at heavier personnel, so not the spread, not the air raid, heavier, more condensed personnel.
44:49In 2017, it was only 26.9%. And last year was 33.2.
44:52It's been going up every single year. Now I got another stat that, you know, I think really contextualizes this even more
44:58because next gen stats can do this. If you measure from the widest wide receiver on one side of the field to
45:05the other, there was a 26.3 average width from wide receiver to wide receiver back in 2017.
45:10Last year, it was an entire four yards closer and it was at 22.9.
45:14It's been going down every single season. So to go back to what you said, is the air raid dead?
45:20I don't know if it's dead, but it certainly ain't trending in the right direction.
45:25You kind of brought it up there with the cover three, cover one thing and how the Chiefs were absolutely demolishing people
45:31that were in single high safety structures in Mahomes' first couple of years as starters.
45:36A big reason for that is because you have Tyreek Hill and you put Tyreek Hill as the number three when you're
45:42going into a trips look and you can run a deep cross with a receiver that runs 4-2 and there's nobody that can keep up with them.
45:50And so when teams were in cover three, like that throw was just available to them all the time.
45:56It really wasn't until the AFC championship game against the Patriots, specifically in the second half of that game where Belichick kind of adjusted.
46:03They started playing literally a cover it's that they call one cross.
46:06Some coaches call it one lurk, whatever you want to call it, where you're putting a zone defender.
46:12It's man coverage. It's single high, but you're putting a zone defender in that intermediate middle in order to stop those crossing routes.
46:19Right. And that's the misconception that I think a lot of people have is when you're dropping a safety down in the
46:25box and you're opening yourself up to be vulnerable against the pass.
46:29It's not because you're throwing go routes down the boundary.
46:32It's not because you're throwing a deep post. Cover three is going to stop both of those throws more often than not.
46:38It's those crossing routes. That's what kills people. That's the air raid identity is those crossing routes.
46:43And so when you see the rise of a too high safety look, the teams that are trying to stop crossing routes
46:50are playing quarters to stop those crossing routes because if they play cover one or they play cover three, you're going to get absolutely torched.
46:57I want to bring up this touchdown by Kyle Williams to illustrate this, right?
47:01This is the nightmare fuel that makes people want to play quarters.
47:05If you have these two crossing routes and you only have one high safety, that safety has to choose which one he's going to cut, right?
47:13That's what coaches call it. You're cutting the crosser because you have a depth and leverage advantage to handle this crossing route
47:19a lot better than the corner does who's covering it.
47:22You only have one available safety to do that.
47:25And typically he's going to cut the crosser that's deeper.
47:28And so when you have Kyle Williams one-on-one here with a route that is designed to break man coverage, a crossing route,
47:34and there's nobody there with a leverage advantage to cut it because you only have one high safety, then all Drake May
47:41has to do is wait for him to clear a linebacker, get to that last window.
47:46It's a much higher completion percentage throw than a go ball down the boundary where you're hoping for 50-50.
47:51This is a much easier one to complete. And there's nobody there.
47:55If you complete it, there's literally nothing that can stop him from scoring.
47:59That was how the Chiefs absolutely destroyed everybody. It was with these crossing routes because they had Tyreek Hill and you didn't
48:05have anybody that could cover Tyreek Hill. That's why you now see teams play a lot of quarters against teams that love crossing routes, right?
48:13You look at this PBU by Julian Love here.
48:15Seattle loves quarters. Why? Because if you're in a three-by-one look, right?
48:19You do a late motion. You're switching the two and the three to the field side.
48:24You have the new three, he's running a shallow.
48:26You have the new two, he's running across. You have the safety that can play over the top of number one, but
48:33you still have another safety that's available to cut the crosser.
48:36He has a leverage advantage. He has a depth advantage.
48:39You're not going to get absolutely killed here. Like when you have these leverage advantages with multiple safeties, it takes away the
48:46bread and butter of the air raid, which is these crossing routes.
48:49It's not about the deep post. It's not about the go ball.
48:53It's not even about screens and RPOs. It's can we stop the deep crossing route?
48:57You're going to sacrifice a little bit as a run defense if you're playing quarters, unless you have a unicorn type of
49:04defensive tackle like Byron Murphy, which we talked about last show, but you still have to do it or else you're going
49:10to give up explosive plays in the pass game.
49:13That's why they want to force you into cover three is to open up those crossing routes.
49:18EPA per pass damn near doubles. If you're looking at single high safety structures versus two high safety structures, as in you
49:24will get a much higher EPA per pass. If you can force teams into playing single high safety.
49:30That's why we're seeing more tight ends on the field.
49:33We're seeing more condensed formations on the field because they know defenses will play more cover three against those looks.
49:39It's not that they want to. It's because they have to because they have to stop the run first.
49:44That's rule number one. And if you can force them into cover three, you're going to get explosive plays in the pass game.
49:51Not from go balls from crossing routes. That is the sport right now.
49:55That'll be an ongoing thing. But that's a big area of improvement for us because I'm not going to run away that
50:02I haven't done a good enough job of making that an emphasis and it's cost us and that's nobody's fault but my own.
50:08All right. Thanks guys. Let's move on to some season awards because we got to hit the season awards.
50:14We got to hit MVP, offensive player of the year, defensive player of the year, but we're going to have two different picks here.
50:21We're going to have, okay, this is what your head says.
50:24And that might be a little bit more of the obvious pick, but then a pick from the gut, pick from the
50:31heart, whichever organ or body part you want to say is a little bit off the beaten path here.
50:37So give me your MVP. Let's knock these out because I want to get to as many as possible, but MVP, obvious one, non-obvious one.
50:44What do you got? I think the obvious one to me is Lamar because it seems like every time he gets a new play caller, he wins MVP.
50:52So we're going off this right here. But also all the reasons we talked about with Declan Doyle, I think the offense is just going to make sense.
51:01And I think they're going to score a lot of points.
51:04I think they're going to win a lot of games.
51:07You know, obviously Jesse Minner, I didn't even talk about him.
51:10Like he's going to get that defense right. Fun fact, if I recall correctly, the Ravens defense allowed more points in the
51:17first five weeks last year than they did the entire rest of the season combined.
51:21And that's the reason they missed the playoffs. So as long as they're not like historically the worst defense of all time
51:28in the first month, they'll be okay. They'll probably make the playoffs.
51:31And then my non-obvious MVP is going to be Jameer Gibbs.
51:34How's this for a bold prediction, by the way?
51:37I think it's possible he has the greatest running back season in Lions history this year, which by the way, Barry Sanders played for the Lions.
51:45I was about wait. Oh, I just went through.
51:47I just went through the entire circle of emotions right there because I thought you were going to say of all time.
51:54And I was thinking in my head, like some unbelievable running back seasons, like LaDainian Tomlinson seasons.
51:59The first one that came to my mind is like, okay, he didn't say better than LT.
52:04And then I went, wait a second, Barry Sanders played for the ball.
52:08I mean, I think he has, he has a legit shot to get like 23, 2400 yards from scrimmage.
52:14And we've seen how many touchdowns he can score.
52:16Even if you go back to like Barry's, you know, best year yardage wise, Jameer's already had, I think two seasons where
52:23he had more touchdowns than that Barry Sanders. Yeah.
52:25Yeah. So you add in a metric ton of yards with an improved offensive line and all those touchdowns, he could legitimately win MVP.
52:33I think it'd be fun if a running back won MVP, but it is a quarterback award.
52:38So I'm gonna go quarterbacks with my two picks.
52:40The, with my head or the obvious pick here, if I think the Bengals are going to win the division, if I
52:47think the Bengals are going to get to the AFC championship game, it means that Joe Burrow is fully healthy and it
52:53means that offense is firing on all cylinders. So I'll go with Joe Burrow as the MVP there.
52:59You just know that they can light up a scoreboard and a stat sheet when he is healthy.
53:04So I'll go Joe Burrow as the obvious one.
53:07Uh, and then the not obvious one, I don't know, maybe this isn't, uh, out there enough, but I'll go Dak Prescott.
53:13We talked very highly of the Cowboys here on the show and what we think they can be.
53:19We've highlighted the defense. We highlighted the defense last show as well, but man, I, I, I love what Brian Schottenheimer did with this, this unit last year.
53:27And I think that Dak is at this point underrated.
53:30It feels like people just go like, Hey, yeah, Dak Prescott, whatever.
53:33And I just think that he is a, an awesome quarterback and efficient quarterback.
53:38And he's got a lot of passing weapons to throw the ball to.
53:41So I'll go Dak Prescott there. Offensive player of the year.
53:45Who you got, who you're to Matthew Stafford, I think is the obvious choice.
53:49I think the Rams are going to be sensational this year.
53:52They're everybody's favorite pick for the Superbowl. I think he's going to be as long as he's healthy.
53:58Uh, I think he's going to be tremendously productive again, him and Devante in the red zone.
54:03I think you're going to get a bunch of touchdowns again, as far as my non obvious.
54:08And maybe to some people it is obvious, but you know, looking at the metrics last year, it shouldn't be Caleb Williams.
54:14If we just get a little bit more accurate on the normal run of the mill first, second down, get me some completions type of throats.
54:22If he's just 10% better on those, he's one of the most productive quarterbacks in the NFL.
54:2710, maybe five. That's a lot. That's a lot.
54:30Hold on here. Give me to like 65% on like, okay, that's fine.
54:33We can, we can set the bar at 65 jumping 10% accuracy.
54:37How about this? I don't know if anybody's done that.
54:40The fully formed like Caleb Williams is Jared Goff with the layups, but still Caleb Williams with like the logo threes.
54:46Of course. Yeah. That player, that player wins offensive player of the year and that player might win MVP, honestly.
54:52Yeah. I think he can get there. I really do.
54:55My, uh, I'll go with, again, if Joe Burrow is going to win MVP, I think Jamar Chase probably win an offensive player of the year, right?
55:03Jamar's going to have a monster year. So that's a little bit chalk, but I'm, I'm going with the Bengals combination there
55:10with how good Jamar and Joe Burrow are together.
55:12But my non-obvious one, I'm gonna go Brock Bowers.
55:15I'm gonna go Brock Bowers here. I think the good Kubiak is going to utilize Brock Bowers a ton in that offense.
55:22I think he's going to be a security blanket, best friend, whatever cliche you want to say for Fernando Mendoza when he eventually becomes a starting quarterback there.
55:30So I'm, uh, I'm in on Brock Bowers. I'll go real quick with defensive player of the year, uh, before you hit yours as well.
55:37I'll go Will Anderson sort of as the obvious one with defensive player of the year.
55:42And then my non-obvious one, let's go more Cowboys.
55:45I go Quinton Williams. And I'm only going Quinton Williams because of what you said last week about how important that defensive
55:51tackle is to a Christian Parker defense. I think Christian Parker is going to sit Quinton Williams down, just look him in
55:58the eye and be like, we will go as far as you, as you could take us this season.
56:03And I'm going to put you in the best positions to succeed.
56:07And it's going to be up to you to execute.
56:10And I think Quinton is going to be motivated.
56:13I think he's going to stuff the stat sheet.
56:15And I think he could be a defensive player of the year candidate.
56:19What about you? What do you got? I mean, if you want a little cross promotion here, if people go over to
56:26the NFL channel and they watch the video of Will Anderson and Miles Garrett working out, watch Miles Garrett do that box jump.
56:32And then tell me he's not winning it again this year.
56:36You mean box fly? Because it's what it looked like he was doing, just floating in the air.
56:41Like straight up, it looked like CGI. It was unbelievable.
56:44You never know what you believe. Maybe it is.
56:47No, I'm just kidding. Aliens are among us. If Miles Garrett came around for the first time in 2026, we'd all claim he's AI.
56:54So, you know. Yes, actually. The non-obvious one, speaking of aliens, Jeffrey Simmons.
56:58I think he is tremendous. I think he's the best interior defensive lineman in football right now.
57:03Now, he outproduced, I think it was five entire interior defensive line groups by himself last year.
57:08Like you look at Jeff Simmons versus the Niners and like he lapped them.
57:12That's how good he is. I think he could definitely win it.
57:16Coming on in the last couple of seconds, we got on the show here for the season preview.
57:21Obviously, we'll continue to talk ball throughout the entire season with you guys.
57:25But secret superstar, secret glue guys, whatever you want to call it.
57:28These guys that not a lot of people are talking about, but a lot hangs on their shoulders or they're bringing everything together.
57:35However you want to say it. We got two each.
57:38Brett, who is your first secret glue guy here in the NFL?
57:42Dude, Kamari Lasseter is a psychopath. He's a dog.
57:44Like he's unbelievable. You watch him last year. It's fourth and one against Buffalo.
57:48Reggie Gilliam. Everybody's favorite fullback. Reggie Gilliam. He plays at like 260 and Kamari Lasseter took him on shoulder to chest and bent him backwards.
57:56And that set up a TFL on fourth and one in a crew.
58:00Like that's a corner taking on a 260 pound fullback and winning.
58:03He's unbelievable. Got seven picks in his first two seasons.
58:06Roughly the same missed tackle rate as Devin Witherspoon.
58:09Everybody loves Devin Witherspoon as a run defender. He just got paid for it.
58:13And you should. But he had 62 solo tackles last year while Spoon had 48.
58:18And they had roughly the same missed tackle rate.
58:20Like he absolutely abuses receivers in the run game.
58:23Abuses tight ends. Takes on fullbacks. Takes on pulling linemen.
58:26Like I don't know if there's a tougher corner in football right now.
58:30And that's a high bar. I love Lasseter. And let's just stick a corner for mine.
58:34And it's Jacob Parrish for the Buccaneers. If Jacob Parrish is bad for this team, it's not going to be great, Brett.
58:41It's not going to be pretty. Hey, my mood's not going to be very good when we record the show after the Sunday games.
58:48That's all I'm saying. It's not going to be great.
58:51Rondé walking through that door, bud. Rondé walking through that door.
58:54They need somebody to step up at cornerback big time.
58:57And Parrish was great for them last year. He had a league high eight pressures when he was lined as a cornerback.
59:04So we know that Todd Bowles is going to utilize him everywhere.
59:07But the fact of the matter is he was super versatile for them last year.
59:12He was one of five defenders who played more than 100 snaps at linebacker, outside corner, and slot corner.
59:18They love being able to move him everywhere, especially because they've put Antoine Winfield Jr.
59:22specifically back at safety. So they're not rotating him down in the slot.
59:26Jacob Parrish did a lot of that for them last year.
59:29But this year, he basically has to play as an outside corner.
59:33He has to. And somebody has to step up outside on the other side.
59:37You know, Benjamin Morrison, Zion McCollum, one of the guys who are big-time standouts throughout the preseason.
59:42Somebody's got to play well opposite Jacob Parrish. And that is just by saying Jacob Parrish has to be the glue guy.
59:48Because without him, I think the entire secondary in Tampa Bay might fail.
59:52So he is my first one there. Who is your second one?
59:56Jacobi Myers, the other side of the ball. Talk about glue guys.
59:59You look at the difference between the Jaguars offense pre and post-Jacobi Myers.
60:03Dude, he's been a glue guy his whole career.
60:06His whole career he's been a glue guy. He might be the best glue guy at the receiver position in the NFL.
60:12Like, as far as his... The glue-iest receiver in the NFL.
60:16That might be the dumbest thing I've ever said.
60:18I mean, it's true, though. And it wasn't even just like the emergence of Parker Washington.
60:23It was the emergence of both of them together.
60:26Like, even in the run game. Like, there was a play against Denver.
60:30I'll throw it up on screen. The fact that they combined on these combo blocks to seal the edge.
60:35Jacoby got a two-for-one on this play. Sets up an explosive run.
60:39Like, it's that kind of stuff. The dirty work kind of stuff that he really brought to this offense.
60:45That helped power them in the back half of the year to having a really successful run there.
60:50And winning the AFC South. But even if you're just looking at overall, like, EPA per play before and after Jacoby.
60:56Success rate before and after Jacoby. Explosive play rate before and after Jacoby.
61:00Like, the contested catch rate down the field between him and Parker combined.
61:04Like, they would not have functioned without him. Because, unfortunately, BTJ hasn't turned into what we hoped he could yet.
61:10We'll see this year. And then Travis got hurt.
61:12Like, they needed him to be the guy. And he was.
61:16Yeah. I've been such a big fan of his.
61:18Obviously, with the Raiders as well. And, yeah, I think he's the glue-iest.
61:22He's one of the glue-iest guys. And one of the glue-iest guys along the offensive line.
61:27Dude, how good was the Indianapolis Colts offensive line?
61:30Specifically, you know, at the beginning of the season.
61:32First half of the season. When things were really rolling.
61:35And I don't think that Tanner Bordellini, their center, gets enough credit.
61:39Let's pull up the telestrator once again. Let's break a couple of plays down here for you guys.
61:44So, first and foremost, Tanner Bordellini, who has played so well over the last calendar year.
61:49He's a fantastic athlete. The 80th and 90th percentile in so many of the athletic tests that we saw from him at the combine.
61:56The point of the running game, right, is to get the ball in the hands of the running back and for him to get upfield.
62:03But it's not always about just getting all the offensive linemen downhill.
62:07Like, smash-mouth football, it's great. We love it. Hell yeah.
62:10But sometimes you need to be a little bit more creative.
62:13Sometimes you need to be a little bit more horizontal in order to get vertical in the run game.
62:19And that's exactly what Tanner Bordellini does as an athletic center.
62:22You'll see him here. He's going to snap the football and fire off the ball and just drive this defensive lineman all
62:29the way to this part of the field. And you'll see the running back go right behind him.
62:34That's because of that leg drive. That's because of the athleticism, playing with great pad level.
62:39It really is fantastic to see. So, any type of, you know, zone running game where you're really trying to get horizontal before you get vertical.
62:47You see that he's just clearing the way for the running back to be able to get a ton of yards on that play.
62:54You absolutely love to see it. So, here's another example where he's kind of doing the same thing on this next play.
63:00Now, this next play is a little bit different because it's going to involve some combo blocks here.
63:06You've got a little bit of a combo block here before this offensive lineman climbs to the second level.
63:11And it's the same thing here. Tanner Bordellini's got to hold on to this block before the right guard next to him
63:18is able to really get his shoulder pads in between where this defensive lineman is.
63:22And then you'll see Bordellini climb up to the second level.
63:25But the properties are the same here. It's highlighting his athleticism.
63:29That's what we're really looking for here. Snap the ball, getting off the football.
63:33There's a combo block there from him. And then he just gets to the second level and, again, paves the way for
63:39Jonathan Taylor to get those extra yards there. So, that athleticism, highlighting that, it's a major calling card of his game and
63:46why he is so good, has been so good over the last year.
63:50This play really, though, is the one that I want to highlight.
63:53So, you'll see Bordellini here is the center. All right?
63:56He's got a defensive lineman right in front of him, right over the shade of the left shoulder.
64:02Okay? So, you would think that once the ball gets snapped, that's his guy that he has to block.
64:07But, no, the concept of this rushing play, everything is getting horizontal before it is getting vertical.
64:12So, Tanner Bordellini actually has to get, not only does he have to snap the ball quickly, he has to get all
64:19the way to this defensive lineman, reach block him, and create a wall for the running back to run behind him.
64:25That's an incredibly difficult thing to do. And yet, Tanner Bordellini can do it and do it very well.
64:31You see him get off the ball, fire off the ball, get to that defensive lineman, reach block him, have good hand
64:37usage, good pad level, good strength, and there it is.
64:40Creating that rushing lane because he was able to wall off this defensive lineman in a way that you only get to do if you're a top-tier athlete.
64:49That first half of the season, they were just one of the best run-blocking units in the NFL.
64:54And I think Tanner Bordellini is a huge reason why they will need him again this year.
64:59They had Ryan Kelly for all those years. Bordellini stepped in and was just like, boom, hey, I'm here now.
65:05I'm taking the torch from him. We're good to go.
65:08Let's rock and roll this season. I think he's going to do that this year as well.
65:13See, here's how I know this show is going to change sports media.
65:17How many other season preview shows are doing Tanner Bordellini XOs?
65:20Yeah. I don't think any of them. If there's more than one, it's probably less than three.
65:25That's all I'll say there. But that's what we're all about here on this show.
65:29We got a couple of fun things to point out before we get out of here.
65:34We're throwing the challenge flags on these. England is challenging the ruling on the field.
65:39What's on our mind? What we really want to speak about?
65:42Something that's been bothering us that we just need to get off of our chest before we get out of here.
65:48Brett, what is your topic that you want to bring up to the people?
65:52I understand the value of joint practices. We have to do it smarter, right?
65:57The number one rule of these, and I know it just drives coaches crazy.
66:01The number one rule of joint practices, everybody stay off the ground.
66:04I think how the Bills have approached their preseason process this year, their injuries, and this is actually a stat that came
66:11from banged up Bills over on Twitter. You guys follow him.
66:14He's awesome for Bills injury news if you're a Bills fan.
66:17Bills preseason injuries are down 47% year over year.
66:20Wow. Because they are practicing very smartly. They kind of stretched out their practice schedule a little bit, so they weren't doing so many back-to-backs.
66:27Guys had more recovery time. They were cautious about bringing guys back too early, so there wasn't any overuse injuries.
66:33They weren't getting exposed to injuries quite as often.
66:36And now they're actually going into the season healthier than they have in quite a while.
66:41And I think it's because Joe Brady understood, like, it's a long season.
66:45We've got 17 regular season games. We've got four playoff games, ideally, after that.
66:49Like, we can't be losing people in July and August.
66:52Not that we're taking it easy on guys, but we're doing it smart, right?
66:56We're lessening the load because it's such a long season.
66:59We're not throwing teammates into knees. And you look at some teams that are already really banged up, and you look at
67:05the Bills and how they did it. I think that's the model that teams should really adopt here.
67:11All right. Brett, I also have something that I need to get off of my chest here.
67:16This is my challenge flag that I'm throwing. Why are we in the shotgun on third and fourth and short, specifically on the goal line?
67:23I can't stand this. You know how hard teams have to work just to get closer to the goal, whether it's a
67:30first down, whether it's the end zone? I mean, millions.
67:33I'm talking billions of dollars go into making this job a little bit easier.
67:37And now you're going to say, nah, we're good.
67:40Kick it back a little bit. We've got to up the difficulty before we get into the end zone here.
67:45I got these numbers from next-gen stats. On third and short and fourth and short, the success rate is more than 10%
67:52higher when you are not in the shotgun versus in the shotgun.
67:56So when you are under center, it is a 10% higher success rate there.
68:00On the goal line, it's 6% higher. Everything's more difficult in the goal line, but it's 6% higher when you're under center instead of in the shotgun.
68:08Brett, I just don't understand it. Why are we making this more difficult?
68:12Why are we adding yardage to the goal of what we're trying to achieve here?
68:16I'll bet you anything the only exception is the Chiefs during peak Dynasty Chiefs years because they would do just random stuff
68:23on the goal line, like shovel passes to Kelsey.
68:25That's a little different. If you are being creative like that, essentially, if you're Andy Reid, I'll give you a full pass
68:32because of what Andy Reid does when he is on the goal.
68:35If you're one of the greatest coaches of all time, you get a full pass.
68:40By the way, actually, hold on. Bonus challenge flag.
68:42The Chiefs just had an entire dynasty, and who knows?
68:45Maybe it's not over. We'll see this season. You know when the last time Andy Reid won Coach of the Year was?
68:52Ooh. 2002. It's been over two decades. He didn't get any Coach of the Year awards since taking over in Kansas City.
68:58He's been there for over 10 years. They've been to like five Super Bowls.
69:03They've won three of them. No Coach of the Year ever.
69:06That's an absolute travesty. You know what? That's our unified challenge flag.
69:09We're on the same sideline for that one because that's egregious.
69:13We appreciate you guys watching. This is a ton of fun.
69:16Hopefully, you guys had a lot of fun as well.
69:19This is sort of like Brett said in the middle of the show, a little taste of what you guys are going to get every single season.
69:27We're going to be with you every Monday and Friday.
69:30Obviously, on the Monday show, we'll be breaking down what we just saw sort of on Sunday.
69:35And then on the Friday show, we'll really be diving into the film and be breaking down a lot of stuff for
69:42you guys of why things are happening around the NFL the way that they are.
69:46So, yeah, man. Full steam ahead. We're rolling. And we'll see you guys for the next one.
69:51Appreciate you watching. Follow us on the iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcasts and analyze the game like a pro.
69:58And we will see you back here. It's a beautiful day for some football.
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