PodcastFrom NFL: The Insiders
Brett Kollmann & Trevor Sikkema’s Week 3 Preview | NFL Pro
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
54 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 25, 2026
Published
Fri, September 25, 2026
14
Player insights
13
Players mentioned
Topics
Bo NixAaron RodgersCeeDee LambCourtland SuttonDak PrescottDavante AdamsDrew LockJaylen WaddleKyle JuszczykMark AndrewsMatthew StaffordWill LevisZay Flowers
Player analysis
Player insights
Aaron Rodgers
NegativeProjection30:41
Aaron Rodgers is currently struggling to start the 2026 season, with the source noting his EPA per dropback is among the lowest in the league.
Insight pageBo Nix
NegativeProjection30:15
Bo Nix has struggled significantly against man coverage through two weeks of the 2026 season, posting a -0.68 EPA per dropback, which ranks as the second-fewest in the NFL, only ahead of Aaron Rodgers.
Insight pagePositiveUsage32:10
Bo Nix has shown success on designed rollouts, with his usage rate increasing from 6% in Week 1 to 19.4% in Week 2. He currently holds a 0.74 EPA per dropback on these plays, the second-most in the league, serving as a potential mitigation strategy against heavy pressure.
Insight pageCeeDee Lamb
PositiveUsage51:52
The source confirms CeeDee Lamb remains a top-tier receiver for the Cowboys, noting his massive production on vertical routes and his ability to go off at any point alongside George Pickens in a high-powered offense.
Insight pageCourtland Sutton
PositiveRole39:04
The source identifies Courtland Sutton as a key target for crossing routes in a bootleg-heavy offensive scheme, noting his effectiveness against man coverage.
Insight pageDak Prescott
PositiveProjection51:52
The source describes Dak Prescott as 'damn near unstoppable' when at his best, highlighting his elite performance on vertical routes and his ability to lead a highly efficient Cowboys offense that scored on 10 of 15 drives to start the season.
Insight pageDavante Adams
PositiveProjection39:55
The source highlights Davante Adams' vintage performance in his recent game, noting that he has not lost a step and continues to excel as a technician who can beat various coverages, including scoring against blown cover-3 and using subtle moves against safeties.
Insight pageDrew Lock
PositiveValue81:53
Drew Locke is highlighted as a high-value backup quarterback because he allows the team to maintain its offensive identity without shrinking the playbook. He is capable of making the same throws as Sam Darnold, and his performance has been strong enough that the hosts jokingly refer to his impact as 'Lock-tober' coming early.
Insight pageJaylen Waddle
PositiveRole39:04
The source suggests that Jalen Waddle is a strong candidate to benefit from a Broncos-style wide zone and bootleg offensive scheme, as his skill set is well-suited for the crossing routes that typically succeed against man coverage.
Insight pageKyle Juszczyk
PositiveUsage4:58
The 49ers are utilizing Kyle Juszczyk in creative motion schemes where he acts as a fullback on the move at the snap, creating new gaps at high speed and forcing defensive linebackers and linemen to react instantly, which is difficult to defend.
Insight pageMark Andrews
NegativeRole48:21
The source notes that Mark Andrews is being utilized more heavily in the Ravens' passing attack when Zay Flowers is out, but expresses concern that Andrews is 'long in the tooth' and no longer the same player he was a few years ago.
Insight pageMatthew Stafford
NegativeProjection35:15
Matthew Stafford is coming off an MVP-caliber season, though the source notes this in the context of the 2026 season outlook.
Insight pageWill Levis
NegativeDepth Chart83:52
Will Levis signing to the Jets practice squad serves as an example of how even players with significant physical tools may not be immediately picked up as active roster backups. The source notes that teams prioritize 'dependability' and trust in a backup quarterback over raw ceiling when filling the crucial short-term reliever role.
Insight pageZay Flowers
PositiveUsage44:57
The source emphasizes that the Ravens' offense is significantly different without Zay Flowers, citing a drop in yards per attempt from 18.0 to 8.2 and a massive decline in explosive play rate from 54.5% to 17.2% when he is absent.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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1:00Get new episodes of the NFL Report Monday through Friday all season long.
1:04Listen to the NFL Report Podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
1:10Welcome to the NFL: The Insiders Week 3 Preview Podcast.
1:13Thank you for listening on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you guys get your podcasts.
1:19Be sure to follow and subscribe to the show.
1:22The theme of the day is aggression. Everybody's blitzing.
1:24It's not just Brian Flores. Although Brian Flores is blitzing a lot.
1:28I tell our guys all the time, if we're going to go down, we're going to go down a certain way.
1:35He's sacked! It does feel like so far this NFL season is just a race to the top in terms of who could be the biggest psychopath.
1:44Don't challenge Brian Flores because he's already at crazy levels.
1:47And hearing you say that anybody might even be within the realm of conversation with him could take us to DEFCON 1
1:54numbers when it comes to how many resources Brian Flores is going to send at the line of scrimmage.
2:00But you're right. We're going to do a lot of things here on this show.
2:05We're still going to preview some of the big games that are coming up for Week 3.
2:10But specifically, you and I and the team, when everybody talked about it, we're two weeks into the season.
2:16We are kind of starting to see some trends that I think are at least worth pointing out.
2:22And one of them is how defenses are kind of fighting back here.
2:26Before this season, you and I talked about, hey, the air raid style is dead.
2:31We talked about these more condensed sets from offenses.
2:34And defenses are now not just containing those, but we've seen in the numbers early on, they're kind of punching back here, which is pretty fascinating to see.
2:43Yeah, it's all about meeting aggression with aggression, right?
2:46And I think one small sliver of that that I want to highlight.
2:50So we had talked briefly, honestly, probably should talk more about it.
2:54After the Australia game, right, the Niners really put it to the Rams.
2:58They were doing some fun stuff with Juszczyk on motions where they would basically motion him sort of kind of into being
3:05a fullback, but he's on the move as the ball's being snapped.
3:09And then he would just open back up and they would do these really fast inserts.
3:14And what that does is it really, it kind of ups the pace that a defense has to react to you.
3:21Not only are you creating a new gap on the fly, but you're doing so at warp speed, right?
3:27And so it's really hard for linebackers to react to that.
3:30It's really hard for defensive linemen to react to that.
3:33And we almost saw like an immediate adjustment in week two of like, oh, okay.
3:38If we're going to be getting these inserts on the fly, Mike McDonald did this also in the NFC West against the Cardinals this week.
3:46And we see a very similar thing, right? We're motioning somebody into the backfield.
3:51He's not violating the rules technically because he's not going forward, but he is carrying that momentum as an insert.
3:57And what do we see the Seahawks do? They're in what's called a tight front here.
4:02So we've got the 4-I, we've got the 0-nose, we've got the 4-I.
4:06You have a bubble here between the right tackle and the tight end.
4:10That's where the insert's going to try to go on the fly.
4:14They want to get up to Witherspoon quickly. So what the Seahawks do is, okay, we're going to slant this 4-I into that gap.
4:22This insert is going at full speed. So he can't adjust and run off the inside hip of the tackle, like what
4:29a normal fullback would do when starting from a static position because they have time to correct their angle.
4:35You have no time to correct your angle. So you're getting a two for one here.
4:40Witherspoon's blitzing. You get a run-through and pretty much a free tackle for loss.
4:45And so that's really the theme that we're seeing with some of these early down blitzes is, okay, if we're going to
4:52be getting these inserts fast, we're going to disrupt those by being aggressive as well.
4:57Because if we can't time it up, that means you can't time it up either.
5:01And now we just have a bunch of chaos at the line of scrimmage, which typically is going to be a win for the defense.
5:09And you talked about that chaos at the line of scrimmage.
5:13So here's some numbers that kind of back that up.
5:16When you look at the average width of a formation on offense in 2026, it's just 21.7 yards.
5:22Now that used to be back in 2016. This is just an example.
5:262016, it was 28.1 yards. That means, okay, where are the furthest or widest offensive player?
5:31So an entire seven plus yards inside where things sort of used to be, that shows that things aren't as spread out.
5:38They're getting more condensed. And the rise in 12 personnel, more heavy personnel, more tight ends on the field.
5:44That also echoes that. So what have defenses done early on this season to combat that?
5:49You talked about blitzing. We'll talk about run blitzing and pass blitzing a little bit more in a second.
5:55But even those insert blitz that you mentioned, those little cheat code things that the offense can feel like they could do,
6:02well, you get to neutralize that if you stack the line of scrimmage.
6:07Flores is the most famous example of this. But it's not just the Minnesota Vikings.
6:11Teams around the NFL are stacking the line of scrimmage, and they're sending their guys.
6:16When you look at the five-man front percentage this year, it is 34%.
6:20Last year, it was 30.1. 4% of a jump is a massive jump in that category.
6:25And it has never been above 31%. Really, 30.6% is the highest that it was in 2022 since 2018.
6:32This year, we are seeing more five-man fronts than we have seen over the last eight years.
6:37So whatever you're trying to run with heavy personnel, whether you're getting an extra offensive lineman on the field in the form
6:44of an extra tight end, whether you have these fullbacks or these insert blocks, whatever, the defense is already ready.
6:50They already have their game plan. So it's a new-look philosophy, I think, for defenses to, like you mentioned at the top
6:57of the show, match aggression and creativity with aggression.
7:00Well, maybe this isn't creativity. Maybe it's just out-aggressing the creativity.
7:04Honestly, what it feels like from defenses because the blitz rate is up, not just overall, but on early downs as well.
7:11When we think of blitzes, we're thinking of, oh, okay, you know, those obvious passing situations where they get a little bit
7:18more trigger-happy to send an extra guy. It's early down stuff, too.
7:22It's rumblesses. It's first and second down. So you're able to do that when you're crowding that line of scrimmage a little bit more.
7:29So coming off of the peak spread offense era, when you started to see teams trickle in, getting more and more condensed.
7:36We saw the Rams do this a little bit more.
7:40They went from this outside zone rushing scheme to, okay, now they're a power rushing team.
7:45We're seeing teams that are adding more tight ends on the field, not just wide receivers.
7:50So they were trying to combat the fact that defenses were spread out to match their spread, and they were trying to get ahead of the curve.
7:59Now defenses are basically saying, wait a second. If you're just going to go condensed, we're going to go condensed, and then we don't have to guess anymore.
8:08If you're, like, we just get to attack the line of scrimmage.
8:11There's no, ooh, we're going to try to deceive that this guy is going to blitz you or not.
8:17He's already there. There are players already on the line of scrimmage.
8:21So it's a long way of saying that the more condensed offenses have been going over the last couple of years to
8:28say, hmm, now we've got the advantage over all these spread defenses.
8:32This year, for the first time since certainly 2018, they are more willing to stack the line of scrimmage to match the
8:39condensed sets and actually have an advantage with how aggressive they can get with more blitzes.
8:44Yeah, Theo Ash made a great point this week.
8:47Friend of the show, Theo Ash. And he was talking about this Bears-Vikings matchup and how Ben Johnson, in terms of his
8:54success rate in the past game as a play caller, on plays with motion is way lower against Flores than anybody else.
9:01Because a lot of the times when you're using motion, right, it's a formation indicator, or rather a defensive structure indicator.
9:08Are we getting man? Are we getting zone? Vikings are in zone anyway.
9:12So you send a receiver across the formation. It's like, oh, it's zone.
9:16Congrats, buddy. You knew that. We were doing that anyway.
9:19You know what we're doing. There's no deception here.
9:22The deception is just which one of these eight guys in the line of scrimmage are we bringing.
9:28That's the part that you don't know and you can't know.
9:32Short of having the greatest hard count in football history, you're not going to know who's coming and who's not.
9:38And so I think when you're looking at the league-wide early down blitz rate trend, they're at 31.7%.
9:44That's early down blitzes, highest since at least 2018.
9:47And the fact that so many teams are just playing zone with those pressures and not really caring if you know that
9:54they're in zone, it's almost like simplicity through aggression, right?
9:57And it's you know what we're doing. We know that you know what we're doing.
10:02The question is, is your offensive line in sync enough to pick up whichever of these five or six guys that we're sending?
10:09Typically, the answer is going to be no, especially in September when nobody has reps.
10:14So again, offenses becoming more condensed. I think that they did that to believe that they were getting ahead of the cycle, right?
10:21Because football is a cyclical thing. But I actually believe that even though there was a short period of time, like a
10:28year, two years, whatever it was, where they did have sort of this advantage over the last couple of years, now the defenses are adjusting.
10:36Now that we are seeing five-man fronts at a higher rate than ever, and it's the only time that we've seen a
10:43higher six-man front rate is last year. So we know that that aggression is there from them as well.
10:49Well, you are allowing defenses to stack that line of scrimmage and just go after you all the time.
10:55And I just feel as though in this cycle of football of, okay, it was really spread out and now it's more condensed.
11:03I think defenses are going to have more of the advantage because of how much they can run these multi-man fronts that
11:10are beyond four players on the line of scrimmage.
11:13I like this kind of party. I like this kind of party, baby.
11:17All right. It's so funny because before everything was spread out, it was condensed and it was 12 personnel, right?
11:23Like you remember that 2010 tight end draft, like Cronk, Jimmy Graham.
11:27Oh, yeah. Everybody was running 12 personnel because the Patriots were really good at it and they were tearing people apart.
11:34Like that 2011 Patriots offense was one of the best in modern NFL history.
11:38And it was a bunch of tight ends and slot receivers.
11:42Woo-hoo-hoo! I just blocked him, baby! So you had a bunch of teams around the league that were taking tight ends early.
11:49Like Kobe Fleener made a lot of money in the draft because of that trend of everybody just wanting two tight ends that played specific roles.
11:57You had your Y tight end. You had your move tight end.
12:01Everybody wanted a Wes Welker. Eventually Julian Edelman. Like everybody was trying to match those archetypes.
12:06Real ball knowers remember the Kobe Fleener-Dwayne Allen 1-2 combination for the Indianapolis Colts.
12:11You just needed to shout that out because you shouted out Kobe Fleener.
12:15And real ball knowers know the intense debates between Kobe Fleener and Stephen Hill for which player to draft in the first round that year.
12:23That's deep. Deep pull. Deep pull. But you saw everybody try to mimic that.
12:27But if you don't have Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham or Greg Olson, it's not going to work.
12:33Right? Like it takes a unicorn type of tight end to do that.
12:37And so eventually, a few years later, you know, after defenses were responding to that and also playing really condensed, right?
12:44That was the Legion of Boom cover three era, which ironically teams run more cover three now than even back then.
12:51They just do it a different way. That's a topic for another show.
12:55Boom! A few years later, after like the Marcus Mariota Oregon revolution happened, you have Mariota coming in.
13:01You have Jared Goff coming in. He ran the air raid in college.
13:05Eventually, you had, you know, Patrick Mahomes coming in who ran the air raid in college.
13:10All these air raid Lincoln Riley, Cliff Kingsbury quarterbacks that we talked about in the season preview.
13:15They all came to the league. Everything spread out.
13:18Defenses eventually found their answer. Now everything's condensing. It's a 15-year cycle of just going up and down and up and down.
13:25Tight ends, yes. Tight ends, no. Spread, yes. Spread, no.
13:28Like we're just doing the same thing again that we did in like 2012.
13:33And this is sort of how football has always been, right?
13:36From the beginning. It's about offensive and defensive coordinators trying to find the advantage.
13:41And so for as long as football has existed, it's always been a little bit more of something, right?
13:47Okay, like here's the cycle of football is more of a power game between the tackles.
13:52I'm not trying to say that it's not. It obviously all starts up front no matter what.
13:57But you get more emphasis on sort of what's happening around the trenches and everything.
14:02So everything's very condensed. It's this power profile and everything.
14:05And then offenses try to push the envelope a little bit further out, further out, further out.
14:11And obviously in the 20, what was it? 2017, 2018, 2019 kind of era where we just see offenses more spread out than ever.
14:19You're putting more wide receivers, more speed on the field.
14:22Now we're having this next evolution of what the cycle is.
14:25But it also sort of depends on the types of players that are existing.
14:30Because the types of players and athleticism and size and skill sets, those things have also evolved as the game cycles through.
14:37And I just kind of feel as though in today's football with defensive players built the way that they are with the skill sets that they have.
14:45Inviting them and in some ways allowing them to play those five man fronts at a higher rate than ever.
14:52I just don't know if even some of these innovative condensed sets are going to combat what defenses are going to be able to do.
15:00So look, it's only two weeks. We're only two weeks into the season.
15:04But I feel as though this trend could be one of the defining trends of the entire season.
15:10With how much defenses believe they can stack the line of scrimmage and just be aggressive given how condensed offenses want to be.
15:17We do want to talk about some of these marquee matchups that we have in week three.
15:23The first one that I want to talk about is Rams and Broncos.
15:27And there's a lot of interest in this one.
15:30But it's a good first game to preview because it also ties in a little bit to what we were just talking about.
15:37Pairing, certain coverages with how aggressive you want to be.
15:40So look, both of these teams have the ability to suffocate you on defense but in a little bit of different ways.
15:47Brett, when you think about this game, where do you want to start sort of with our preview here?
15:53Both teams played a lot more man coverage in week two.
15:57Especially the Rams, right? They were a 44.1% man rate in week two.
16:01They were 16.7% in week one. We criticized them for bringing in two corners that can play man and not playing man.
16:08And obviously they weren't listening to us. But I think they saw the same thing we did.
16:13No, they subscribed to the show. Yeah, I've looked over.
16:17Definitely. Chris Shula, he has subscribed. He has smashed those notification buttons.
16:20No, I don't know if that's true or not.
16:23No, please nobody write that. But they did front a lot more man in week two.
16:28And it worked, by the way. Like, they were excellent.
16:32And while it is unfortunate, well, not beyond unfortunate, it's awful that Jackson Dart got hurt in the last game.
16:38This defense was playing so well on the back end.
16:41I still think it would have been tough for Giants receivers to get open, quite frankly.
16:46And also just the way that they paired that man coverage with pressure.
16:5166.7% of all their man coverage reps in this game.
16:54About two-thirds of it was paired with five-plus pass rushers going to the quarterback.
16:58Aggression and aggression. That's exactly what that is. You're playing tight coverage and you're hoping that you get home because you're just firing guys to the line scrimmage.
17:07And when you have Aaron Donald and Byron Young and Kobe Turner, like, yeah, you're going to get home because everybody has a one-on-one.
17:15And the windows are tight because you got McDuffie back there, Quentin Lake back there.
17:20This was the game plan that I feel like the Rams remembered.
17:23They have a lot of talent, so they should just let their talent be good.
17:28And they didn't do that in week one. It was a lot of zone, a lot of four-man rushes.
17:34It kind of felt like, oh, we have Myles Garrett, we'll win with four.
17:39It's like, well, Myles' knee isn't right, so you kind of can't get away with that.
17:44And they didn't have Aaron Donald on the field yet, obviously.
17:47And so they played very passively in week one.
17:50And meanwhile, the Niners were playing super aggressive on offense.
17:54And that aggression steamrolled them. They really course-corrected quickly of, okay, we're just going to be as aggressive as possible because we have guys and you don't.
18:02And we're the Rams and you're not. And it worked.
18:05They don't need to be worried about me. They don't need to worry about me at all.
18:11And it's interesting going up against Knicks specifically because in 2025, Knicks had a 0.17 EPA per dropback against man coverage.
18:18That was the seventh most amongst qualifying quarterbacks. So he was a top 10 quarterback in the NFL.
18:23But when you look at the last two weeks, now, one year of a sample size is a, I would say, a
18:30much more stable sample size than two weeks. But it's worth monitoring through two weeks this season, negative 0.68 EPA per dropback
18:37for Knicks, which is the second fewest in the NFL.
18:41I believe Aaron Rodgers is the only quarterback who has a lower EPA per dropback.
18:45By the way, if you're in Aaron Rodgers territory, that's not good this year.
18:50Not, and you know what? Normally, that would be quite the compliment to be in Aaron Rodgers' area.
18:56But over the last couple of seasons, not quite the case, especially to start 2026.
19:00So I wonder what's going to mean more here.
19:03Is it going to be the Rams and how talented they are with how they run man coverage?
19:09Is it going to be how well Knicks played against man coverage in 2025?
19:14Or is it going to be a little bit more of, hey, it seems to be something that he is struggling with this year.
19:21And does it have to do with the fact that it is man coverage paired with pressure?
19:27The Broncos have already sort of tried to mitigate for that pressure.
19:30A lot of guys around the line of scrimmage, a lot of cats around the line of scrimmage, because the design rollout
19:38rate for Bo Nix went from 6% in week one to 19.4% in week two.
19:42That was the third highest among starters last week.
19:45And overall this season, Nix has a 0.74 EPA per dropback, which is the second most this season, on those design rollouts.
19:52So that's one way to sort of counter. Hey, we've got a lot of chaos.
19:57It's crowding the line of scrimmage. But I'm just very curious to see how this plays out.
20:02Because a lot of times it's like, all right, week one, all sorts of stuff is going on.
20:08Week two, sometimes it's continuing what we saw in week one.
20:12Sometimes it's totally different. Week three, we start to get into, okay, are these struggles real?
20:17Is this success real? Do we really start to see things moving forward?
20:21So how often are the Rams going to continue to play man coverage?
20:25Is Nix going to be good against it? And how much are they going to try to get him away from the
20:32pocket as maybe a way to mitigate a lot of that chaos and clutter that might be up at the line of scrimmage?
20:40Yeah, if you don't think you can keep him clean in the pocket, move the pocket.
20:45Like that's... Right, exactly. Exactly. Football 101, right? Exactly.
20:48So I am fascinated to see if they dial that up even more this week.
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23:27And if they really kind of go back to the Broncos' roots of wide zone, wide zone, wide zone, boot, wide zone, wide zone, wide zone, boot.
23:36Like, let's see if it works, right? Especially if you're getting that much man coverage.
23:40Well, those crossing routes off boot tend to do well against man coverage.
23:44Especially when you have Jalen Waddell or Cortland Sutton.
23:47I think that could be a worthy game plan for them.
23:51I kind of want to flip it over to the other side of things.
23:55You know, got a marquee matchup. Devontae coming off a remarkable game.
23:59Yes. Especially for a receiver his age. Like, one of the best.
24:03Vintage. Vintage Devontae Adams games. That was 2019-2020 Devontae right there.
24:07Honestly, he doesn't look like he's slowed down. Not that he was ever, like, a true speedster back then anyway, but it
24:14feels like he just, he hasn't lost what steps he did have even back then.
24:18His skill set just ages so gracefully in the sense that he's a great technician.
24:23Catches everything. And when you have, you know, the Giants blowing cover three, you can score off that as well.
24:30Or when you have safety stepping in the bucket and you give him a little nod and go.
24:35Like, he can still get it done. Hard part is going up against Pat Sertan, who he has faced a lot throughout
24:42his career, having spent time in the AFC West.
24:45Sertan has the third most matchups against him. And in particular, during their career matchups, he's matched up with Devontae Adams on 70 of 132 routes.
24:54That is 53%. So, they will give him shadow duty against Devontae.
24:57Because as much as we like Riley Moss, if you're paying Pat Sertan that much money, you're going to put him on Devontae Adams.
25:05We're going to get our money's worth on that.
25:08I don't think that doesn't happen around the league as much as people think that it does.
25:13Like, true shadow. Like, the old Darrell Revis style of, we're going to build our defense around one guy taking away one guy.
25:21It just doesn't happen very much in the league anymore.
25:24So, for Sertan to have that sort of a rate, man, that just shows you the faith and trust that they have in his talent.
25:32That's really impressive. And, you know, they still target him.
25:35At least the Raiders still targeted Devontae a lot against Sertan.
25:39He had 22 targets against Sertan on those routes.
25:42Nobody else in the league has more than 12 career targets against Sertan.
25:46He has 13 receptions versus Sertan. DK is the only other one with more than 6.
25:51He has 9. Adams has gained 172 yards against Sertan.
25:54DJ Moore is the only other one with more than 100 over the life of his career, right?
26:00And he is the only player in the entire NFL to score twice on Patrick Sertan.
26:05Nobody else has done it more than once. So, not that he's like the Sertan kryptonite, because even those numbers aren't gaudy across four games.
26:13But he's the one that gets, like, success at all, which I would say is something to watch in this game.
26:20So, what you're saying here, Brett, is may the most aggressive team win.
26:24Essentially, yeah. Brings it in over the shoulder! For our next game, let's talk about Ravens and Cowboys.
26:30Two teams that are one-on-one. Two teams that have championship game aspirations in both of their conferences.
26:35Brett, where do you want to start with this one?
26:38Because the Ravens looked unstoppable in Week 1, let down in Week 2.
26:42The Cowboys had a letdown in Week 1, looked unstoppable in Week 2, especially with how they ended the game there.
26:49And Dak Prescott will have thrown more touchdown passes than any Cowboys quarterback in a career ever!
26:55Where do you want to start with this preview?
26:57I kind of want to start with, you know, the Zay Flowers of it all.
27:02This team with and without Zay Flowers, again, two-week sample size, I understand.
27:06We're not going to get too crazy with it.
27:09But just watching the game, like, even setting the data aside, which we do have the data, just watching the game, it's a different offense without Zay Flowers.
27:18Dude, I'm with you 100%. When you look at the, again, small sample size, it's one week and one week.
27:25But when you look at the on-off splits with Zay Flowers when he was out there in Week 1 versus when he
27:32was not in Week 2, even when he was not out there in Week 1, the yards per attempt average is overall for the offense.
27:40It goes from 18.0 to 8.2. Insane. The success rate drops from 63.6 to 55.2.
27:44But then this is, to me, the most important one.
27:48The explosive play rate overall on the offense, it went from 54.5% in Week 1 to 17.2% in Week 2.
27:54Again, small sample sizes. But to me, the big issue here and the thing worth talking about is not necessarily, oh, Zay Flowers is a good player.
28:03Who knew? We knew that already. The issue is the Ravens' depth chart with and without him.
28:08Because when you look at their receivers, they have Rashad Bateman.
28:12They have Elijah Surratt. They did have Jacoby Lane before his injury.
28:15They elevated veteran Chris Moore. Okay, they've got Devontez Walker.
28:19Who's the Zay Flowers replacement? They don't have one.
28:22There's not. They have LeJonte Wester, who can sort of give you that same skill set.
28:27But that's what I'm saying. There's nobody to get those targets.
28:30So, for some great receivers that may get hurt for a short period of time or go out of the game or
28:37whatever, you have somebody else who at least gives you that prototype of wide receiver that you can put in the game
28:44and say, we can still run our offense. Now, is it going to be as good as when we had our top guy in there?
28:52No. But we can still fundamentally run what we want to run schematically and from an emphasis of how we want to put pressure on the defense.
29:01Without Zay Flowers, the entire passing attack changes. They got Mark Andrews a lot more involved.
29:06Obviously, they're leaning more heavily into Rashad Bateman, but we knew that that was going to happen.
29:11But then it's like, okay, who's next? And even fundamentally getting Mark Andrews more involved with him a little bit long in
29:18the tooth here as a veteran tight end, I mean, he's not the same Mark Andrews that he was a couple of years ago.
29:26So, the pivot to a totally different offense that is not only less explosive because you don't have as talented of a
29:33player out there, but also because you don't have that replacement skill set, that worries me about the Baltimore Ravens.
29:40Now, as of us doing this show, it looks like that Zay Flowers is going to be back out there.
29:46But this is something to monitor as things go on here in a long NFL season is, are the Ravens, are they
29:53just completely derailed on offense, even with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, if they don't have Zay Flowers out there?
29:59It's worth sort of monitoring, I think, as this year goes on.
30:03The splits that you're talking about, I think, just kind of highlight how much of a knife's edge a lot of these
30:10teams are on because not a whole lot of teams have two Zay Flowers, let alone one Zay Flowers.
30:16But, you know, one of the teams that you could argue has two receivers that might be even better than Zay are the Cowboys.
30:24And so, they're one of the few teams that I think could withstand that kind of injury.
30:29The Ravens are part of the vast majority of the league where, you know, you lose your number one receiver and your offense looks very different.
30:38The Cowboys, they have two number one receivers. So, they're a little bit more insulated than 95% of the rest of the league.
30:45And that's probably a good transition to talk about this Cowboys offense because, goodness gracious.
30:50Yeah! Here we go! Yeah! They've had 15 drives so far this season.
30:54Keep in mind, the Raiders had 13 drives just last week alone.
30:58Cowboys have had 15 the entire year. They've scored on 10 of them.
31:02They punted once the entire game. Like, they had eight possessions last week.
31:06They had 37 points. This offense is bananas. And it's largely because you can have a George Pickens game.
31:12You can have a CeeDee Lamb game. No matter what, as long as you're having a Dak game, you're good.
31:19Because you have two top 15 receivers in the league that can go off at any point.
31:24And Dak is just playing out of his mind.
31:27Like, this is a... This is kind of a normal Dak season now.
31:31Which sounds like faint praise. It's not. I'm saying that Dak...
31:35This is just what he is. When he is at his best, he is damn near unstoppable.
31:40Some of the throws that he made in the fourth quarter last week were unbelievable.
31:45Like, far hash hole shots to CeeDee Lamb. And CeeDee went nuclear.
31:49Which I know some people were concerned of like, okay, is George taking over the number one because of the season he had last year?
31:57Nope. They just have two number ones. If you're looking at Dak and CeeDee into the boundary last week, eight of nine for a buck 53.
32:05Fourth most in a game this season. And two touchdowns.
32:08If you're looking at Dak total on vertical routes in week two.
32:12Four or five for 107. Two touchdowns. Three total TDs this season on vertical routes.
32:17Fifth most in the league. Five throws getting over 100 yards.
32:20It's just unfathomable numbers. This offense is so deadly when they're going vertical.
32:25Because when you have a quarterback like that, and when you have receivers like that, even when the defense is playing shaky,
32:32the fact that you can still put up 37 points in eight drives, nobody else can do that.
32:37I mean, literally. Right. Nobody else can do that.
32:40So, okay, if you want to play the low possession count game, that's fine.
32:45We'll beat you doing that because we're going to score more than you.
32:49All day, brother. All day. Lovely. Got your back.
32:52You already know it. I'm very curious to see how the Ravens continue to use Kyle Hamilton because we've got some numbers
32:59from NGS here of how Kyle Hamilton has been used so far this season.
33:03They're all-star, do-it-all defensive chess piece. 4.0 yards deep from the line of scrimmage.
33:08That's the fewest in his career, which means he's been lining up more at the second level than he has even in the slot or deep at safety.
33:17He just has 11 snaps of safety this year, which is 9.5%.
33:21That's the lowest in his career. He's got 20.7% of his snaps at the line of scrimmage, highest in his career.
33:2736.2 snaps at linebacker, again, highest in his career.
33:30And then overall, 56.9% of his snaps in the box, once again, highest rate of his career.
33:36So, it kind of goes back to how we introed the show.
33:39Are teams just really trying to crowd that line of scrimmage with chaos?
33:44Now, there's some logic to why, even outside of that trend, Kyle Hamilton might be putting that spot.
33:49This team signed Jalen Hawkins. They drafted Malachi Starks.
33:52They may think, oh, we're good at safety. Let's use Kyle Hamilton elsewhere.
33:56But I think that it leans into being more aggressive at the line of scrimmage.
34:01And having that sort of agent of chaos in Kyle Hamilton closer to the box, closer to the line of scrimmage.
34:08You never know. Is he blitzing? Is he in man coverage?
34:11Is he dropping? What's he doing? I think that five-man front philosophy, that crowd the line of scrimmage philosophy, only gets more
34:19and more daunting for quarterbacks when you have a player like Kyle Hamilton who is sitting right there.
34:24So, that chess match between Dak and Kyle Hamilton this week, I'm very much looking forward to see how that plays out.
34:31Let's talk about the Raiders and Saints. To give some love to the Raiders and the Saints here.
34:37Saints we've talked about quite a bit. Towshuk's been fantastic so far this season, especially under pressure and especially in the vertical passing game.
34:45But the Raiders, also 2-0. And I feel like we haven't talked about the Raiders as much as maybe we should.
34:51The comment section reminded us of that last week.
34:54They do. Hey, look, Raiders fans haven't been 2-0 in a long time and they want somebody to talk about their team.
35:01So, Brett, how do you feel about this one?
35:04Where do you want to start with this game?
35:07So, one of the only good things the Raiders had going for them last year was they had a very good run defense.
35:15It didn't look that way because of volume stats, but if you're looking at carry-to-carry, you know, efficiency-wise from carry-to-carry, they were really good, right?
35:22They're yards before contact allowed per attempt last year.
35:25It's a mouthful. 0.9 yards. So, basically, running backs were getting less than a yard before getting hit against them last year on every single carry.
35:34That was the best in the NFL. It's just when teams are running it against them, I don't know, 35 times a
35:41game because they're in the lead, yeah, the volume stats are going to add up.
35:46This year, it's still 0.9 yards before contact per attempt.
35:49They have a 34% success rate allowed against the run this year.
35:53That's 6th best. They are negative 19.5 EPA allowed on the ground and negative 0.39 EPA per carry allowed this season, both
36:00best in the NFL among all run defenses. So, this team can really stop the run.
36:05I know Omarion had good volume stats last week, but if you're looking at total touches Omarion Hampton had, that kind of
36:12explains why he had the numbers he did. They were feeding him and feeding him and feeding him and added up over
36:19time, but this team makes run games inefficient. And, you know, when you have, you know, the Saints already taking on injuries
36:26in their offensive line going against a very good Raiders run defense, I worry about their ability to stay ahead of the
36:33sticks and at least make third downs manageable. And then you get into third and long and you got Max Crosby against a backup left tackle.
36:41Things could go sideways pretty quick here. And it's so night and day from what it was last year.
36:47Specifically, the fact that I'm just watching this defense and do the Raiders have the most talented defense in the NFL?
36:54No, I don't think that anybody's, we're going to sit here and say that the Raiders have, you know, the best defense
37:01in the NFL or even a top five defense.
37:04But are they a lot better than what they were last year?
37:08Yes. And that is while getting a lot of really important snaps from rookies, from young guys.
37:13And yet Rob Leonard, their defense coordinator, and probably just honestly top down, John Spitek, their general manager, Clint Kubiak, their new head coach.
37:21Like there's so much confidence in all of these guys that are playing.
37:25And you see that on defense. Trayden Stooks was a standout at safety for them in week one.
37:31But Hezekiah Massis, my guy, somebody who I had as a top 100 player on my big board.
37:37I thought there was no way he should have lasted until the fifth round.
37:41He is such a great early success story for the Raiders because this is what happens when you have a cohesive vision
37:48between your front office and who is doing the scouting and drafting of these players and what the defense wants.
37:54Hezekiah Massis, cornerback out of Cal. What was he best at when he was at Cal?
38:00Off coverage rolls. Cover three step. Quarters. When he could sit off the line of scrimmage and really read quarterbacks and just bait those throws.
38:08Sit and manage space very, very well. That's when he was at his biggest impact in college.
38:13The Raiders run zone second most in the NFL this year.
38:17And when I watch Hezekiah Massis who had one of the best games of any defensive player last week.
38:23Or I should say one of the most impactful games.
38:26Because you go back and you watch some of the snaps and there's still a lot of rookie plays that are out
38:33there where, okay, he needs to handle this a little bit better.
38:37He needs to be a little bit stronger in run defense when he's taking on a block.
38:42But you see him fire downfield in run defense.
38:45And even though he got got on some run defense plays, he also had some serious run stops.
38:51And Brett, I'll take you back to my scouting report that I had for him pre-draft.
38:56One of the things that I noted is has to play stronger and with more fire in run defense.
39:02He had a missed tackle rate above 25 in each of the last two seasons that he played college ball.
39:08But this year, even though, again, it's not perfect, the confidence he has.
39:13Yeah, he's about it. Dude, and the same thing with Trayden Stooks the week before.
39:17So you're playing this Raiders. Again, is it the best defense in the NFL?
39:22No, but they're playing with so much confidence. That's when you get the results here.
39:27You are identifying player strengths. You are identifying their weaknesses.
39:30You are putting them in a position to succeed with those strengths more often.
39:34And then when it comes to those weakness points, you're making sure that they're playing with as much confidence as possible.
39:41That's what Hezekiah Massis was this past week. And it's an encapsulation, in my opinion, early on of how different this Raiders
39:48organization feels this year versus last year, the confidence that those young guys are playing with.
39:53How do you change the place? You do something they say you can't.
39:57You guys did something they said you can't. Seven point dogs.
40:01Oh, yeah. Great job, man. So seeing all that, there is a non-zero chance that one of these young Raiders DBs gets
40:08their hands on the ball in this game. And that did happen to Tyler Shuck in week one.
40:14He threw two picks in the first half against Detroit.
40:17And they were both against zone coverage, by the way.
40:20And they were both against zone coverage. Yes, they were.
40:23Yes. That has been something that we've talked about with him, even though he was better against zone last week.
40:30It is something we're going to have to keep an eye on.
40:33But, you know, Dimitri, who's on the team with us here at NFL Pro, he happened to be a former teammate of Tyler Shuck at Texas Tech.
40:42And we were talking through it with the meeting about how well Shuck was able to bounce back from those picks, how
40:49well he's played in these second halves of games so far.
40:53And even, you know, late last season, like he faced some early adversity, got really hot late in the year.
40:59He's tried to, you know, carry that over this season.
41:02Something Dimitri brought up is just how resilient he is, right?
41:06And how even when he fails, he's so good at kind of just flushing it, moving on to the next play.
41:12And he has supreme confidence and he has belief in himself.
41:16And that really is a necessary skill set to have as a quarterback because there are some guys, you know, they throw two picks in the first half.
41:25You're down 21-0. You just go completely in the tank.
41:28And you can see it just based on body language.
41:31Like, wow, we didn't win this game. We'll move on to next week.
41:35Whereas, you know, Tyler Shuck is like, 21 points in the second half?
41:40Yeah, I can close that gap. And he did.
41:43No, we're good. Right? And, you know, Dimitri compared it to Josh Allen, which I found interesting because Shuck got fired up
41:50last week by an opposing coach referring to him as a poor man's Josh Allen.
41:54He reminds me a little bit like a poor man's Josh Allen.
41:58Has all the arm talent in the world. Can run, right?
42:02I don't think he gets enough credit for how good an athlete he is.
42:06The new NFL season is here. And you should be listening to NFL Daily as we march along to Super Bowl 61.
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44:41And then the entire week, everybody in the Saints building was just calling him poor man over and over and over again
44:48and just really getting under his skin. You don't say the Josh Allen part.
44:53Because honestly, I thought that that quote was hilarious.
44:55Because if you're called a poor man's Josh Allen in your second year in the NFL, that's a genuine compliment.
45:02That is a genuine compliment. But by just calling him poor man all week and leaving out the Josh Allen part, that's
45:09when he's just, you know, he's the LeBron Miami Heat meme where he's like, all right, okay, all right.
45:15Can I get like an upper middle class Josh Allen?
45:18But he played really, really well. You know, I think part of it is mentality.
45:23Maybe I'll use Eli, Eli Manning as like a better example.
45:26Like anytime Eli made a mistake, I don't want to say he didn't care, but he didn't let it affect him.
45:33He was always just coming out firing and having belief, okay, I can make this tight window throw.
45:39I'm not going to second guess myself. Because the second you stop shooting is the second you stop scoring.
45:45And then the defense wins. And I just really respect the hell out of Tyler Shuck for having that mentality and not
45:52letting those early picks get to him. It's very possible the Raiders get him once, maybe even twice in this game.
45:59But I still think as long as he's there and as long as he has all those vertical threats, the Saints are never entirely out of a game.
46:08We've already seen that this season, that that's not the case.
46:11I mean, we saw it on the road in Baltimore on week two.
46:15What that does for morale and confidence to know that you are never out of it.
46:21Because sure, like a quarterback's mentality is really, really, really important.
46:24But let's face it, like everybody has to believe that you're going to come back.
46:29Everybody on offense, everybody on defense, all of that, man.
46:32And I just, I feel as though when the quarterback will show you what he's capable of, it just permeates with confidence
46:39throughout the entire rest of the roster. When you look at Shuck in the first half and then the second half slash
46:46overtime, we'll throw overtime in there as well. Over the last two weeks, first half, 0.29 EPA per dropback, which is the sixth fewest in the NFL.
46:55But in the second half and overtime, plus 0.26 EPA per dropback, which is the tenth most.
47:00So when this man's back is against the wall, when they need Captain Clutch, when they need somebody to lead them on
47:07a comeback here, he is a top 10 quarterback in the NFL through two weeks into the season.
47:13So to me, just it's such a difference maker.
47:16Again, when you have a player that can instill this kind of confidence and you've seen it a couple of times from
47:23him already in his career, that never say die mentality and how that goes to the rest of the team, extremely powerful
47:30stuff when you talk about a long NFL season against some really, really good teams that you're going to face.
47:36Now, Saints and Raiders fans both wanted us to talk about them.
47:40Be careful what you wish for. Anytime I start praising a team, they start doing poorly.
47:45So if they lose this week, it's on you.
47:48The Coleman curse. But hold on, hold on though.
47:51You talked about both teams. So if they tie this week, we have to intro next week's show with the Coleman curse
47:58being just an insane force of universal properties here if they tie in this game.
48:03We could do a super cut over the last five years of every time I praise a team and they immediately lose.
48:10So you ask for it, guys. The last thing that we want to talk about here on this episode of NFL Pro is the importance of backup quarterbacks.
48:19We're talking about a lot of trends that we're seeing early on in the season.
48:24But Brett, I feel like you pointed this out or somebody on the NGS team pointed this out.
48:29How much teams have relied on backup quarterbacks already?
48:32And through two weeks of the season, we've already seen 41 quarterbacks play in the regular season.
48:38Just for those keeping score at home, there's only 32 NFL teams.
48:42And we've already had 41 quarterbacks play through two weeks of the regular season.
48:46It reminds me a little bit like a poor man's Josh Allen.
48:50Which I think lends itself to a bigger conversation.
48:53I'm not just like, oh man, a lot is sort of up in the air when these quarterbacks go out.
48:59But the importance of backup quarterbacks, and I think that we're seeing that early on in this season.
49:05And especially backup quarterbacks that don't make you change your offense.
49:08Are they still capable of running the same plays that are your bread and butter?
49:13Look at Drew Locke. Drew Locke can make the throws that Sam Darnold can make.
49:18Now, I think Sam Darnold will make them with more regularity.
49:22But Drew's out there spinning it. Like, Locke-tober came early this year, I would say.
49:26He's been great. Because you don't have to shrink the playbook.
49:30Going from Caleb Williams to, if he doesn't play this week, to potentially Case Keenum, that's a different playbook.
49:36Right? It's a different conference. Even going from Caleb to Bajit.
49:39You call it different stuff. Going from Darnold to Locke, it preserves what your offensive identity is.
49:45Going from Kyler to Wentz, I don't necessarily think that shrinks the playbook.
49:49Now, will Kyler execute it with more regularity? Maybe.
49:52But at least you're fundamentally still preserving the offense.
49:55The Jackson dart to Jameis drop-off, I think the playbook does change a little bit, especially with how mobile dart is.
50:02Because, you know, I think going from Jaden to Marcus Mariota, roughly the same, but Jaden's obviously more dynamic.
50:08Yeah, but to your point, it's the same skill set that's there.
50:11Yeah, you're just not going to intentionally run Mariota at this age.
50:15Right. Which, by the way, 10 years later, Jameis and Marcus starting games?
50:19Let's go. We got there somehow. Longevity, folks! The Bucs and the Titans, they knew all along that these guys are going to be in the league.
50:28No, but I think that you bring up a good point.
50:32And there was actually a transaction earlier this week that happened with Will Levis signing on the Jets practice squad that I
50:39think he's a perfect example of sometimes people go, well, hold on, how does somebody with all the tools in the world
50:46like Will Levis, like how is he not picked up immediately just as a flyer quarterback?
50:51And I think the reason why is because the most important part about having a backup quarterback is having somebody that you trust.
50:58Or at least, that's how I would fundamentally view it.
51:01In a perfect world, I'd love to have three spots for quarterbacks.
51:05One is your starting quarterback. Two is a backup that you know can give you the chance to win football games, the
51:12chance to win football games for a two to four week span.
51:16Right? Like a short term, like reliever type of quarterback.
51:19If your quarterback has, your starting quarterback has a high ankle sprain or something like that.
51:24And then ideally, like you'd love to have a younger, higher ceiling type of quarterback that you have sort of your QB
51:31three, you know, whether it's on the practice squad or you've actually got it on the 53 man roster.
51:38But that middle player, that short term reliever is so, so important.
51:41And I think that that player often gets overlooked by some fans who just want sort of the flashy, high ceiling, younger quarterback.
51:49You need that guy. You need dependability to be able to come in and sort of steady the ship for you for
51:56a week or two or maybe even a month while your starting quarterback is down.
52:01So when I go to that wedding Halloween week in Vermont, who's my backup that you're going to bring in that you can execute the same show?
52:09Remember, Connor's watching. Brother. No pressure. In the very first show that we did, you brought up people.
52:15What position was it? Somebody's getting Timothy Mozgov money.
52:18Who else is doing that? I don't know. Who's the replacement there?
52:22I don't know. At that point, I'm just getting a young hot shot to come in and I'm just throwing it deep.
52:29That's what I don't think. I don't think I can find anybody that's going to be able to give me that sort of comp.
52:36So you'd have to give me a while. Can we get Danny Kelly on loaner for a week?
52:42Just with the creative comps? Yes. Yes. Thank you for listening to our week three preview podcast.
52:48Listen to NFL Pro on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
52:53The new NFL season is here and you should be listening to NFL Daily as we march along to Super Bowl 61.
53:00It is in the name NFL Daily. You'll have fresh content in your feed every day, all season long.
53:06That game winning drive. Maybe it's Herbert. Maybe it's Gino.
53:09Maybe it's Mahomes. We'll have the highlights. If Fernando Mendoza or any of the rookies are balling out, we'll break down the tape.
53:16Join me, Greg Rosenthal, and an all-star cast of co-hosts as we preview and recap every game.
53:22Listen to NFL Daily on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
53:27Hey, I'm Mike Yam. And I'm Trevor Sikama. And together, we host the NFL Fantasy Football Show.
53:32Are you ready to dominate your fantasy league this season?
53:36Because if you aren't locked in with us on the NFL Fantasy Football Show, you're already playing from behind.
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53:50Listen to the NFL Fantasy Football Show on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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54:03The league's newest podcast, The NFL Report, hosted by me, Andrew Siciliano.
54:07It is your home for everything football. Breaking news, expert analysis, game picks, and hear from your favorite players, too.
54:13Join me and an all-star cast of experts for everything you need to know from around the league.
54:19Get new episodes of The NFL Report Monday through Friday, all season long.
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