Davis Mattek - Grinding the Variance: Week 2 Picks, Props & Survivor Pools
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 25 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 19, 2026
Published
Sat, September 19, 2026
28
Player insights
28
Players mentioned
Topics
Baker MayfieldBo NixBrock PurdyCharlie KolarChris BellColston LovelandDavante AdamsDeshaun WatsonDeWayne McBrideGeorge HolaniGreg DulcichJadarian PriceJalen HurtsJavonte Williams
Player analysis
Player insights
Baker Mayfield
NegativeUsage62:19
Matt Kelley notes that the Buccaneers play a high-variance style of football and highlights that Mayfield is prone to turnovers, specifically pointing to his multiple fumbles in the previous week as a reason for skepticism.
Insight pageBo Nix
NegativeProjection8:53
Matt Kelley expects Bo Nix to struggle in his home opener against the Jacksonville Jaguars, specifically anticipating a trailing game script.
Insight pageBrock Purdy
NegativeInjury54:19
Matt Kelley expresses concern regarding the 49ers' health, specifically noting that Brock Purdy has missed time due to injury in every year of his career, which adds risk to the team's long-term outlook.
Insight pageCharlie Kolar
NegativeBust47:45
Matt Kelley declares Charlie Kolar 'dead' for fantasy purposes, noting that he is currently only useful in the event of an injury to other tight ends or an extremely unlikely high-touchdown performance.
Insight pageChris Bell
PositiveDepth Chart30:21
Davis Mattek notes that Chris Bell is expected to see an increase in snaps as the season progresses, which could negatively impact the target share of other tight ends like Greg Dulcich.
Insight pageColston Loveland
PositiveUsage20:08
Matt Kelley and Davis Mattek are high on Colston Loveland, noting that he was a primary read in the previous game despite low production. They view him as a strong bounce-back candidate for fantasy props.
Insight pageDavante Adams
PositiveUsage26:43
Matt Kelley and Davis Mattek clarify that Adams' lack of red zone usage in Week 1 was due to him being sick and under the weather, rather than a decline in role. They view his current receiving yardage and reception props as undervalued and suggest targeting him for touchdown production.
Insight pageDeshaun Watson
NegativeRole61:58
Matt Kelley predicts this will be Watson's last game as a starting quarterback, suggesting he will be benched for the home opener in Week 3 due to poor performance and a lack of support from his teammates.
Insight pageDeWayne McBride
NegativeDepth Chart40:58
Despite fantasy managers gravitating toward DeWayne McBride as the replacement for Jordan Mason, Matt Kelley warns that coach speak from Wes Phillips and Kevin O'Connell suggests the team is not yet comfortable with him, emphasizing his need to improve in pass protection.
Insight pageGeorge Holani
NegativeRole23:17
Davis Mattek suggests that while Helani's role is unlikely to disappear entirely, he will likely be relegated to a long-down-and-distance specialist role as Jadarian Price takes over the primary rushing duties.
Insight pageGreg Dulcich
NegativeUsage27:02
Davis Mattek and Matt Kelley discuss the potential for a timeshare between Greg Dulcich and Adam Trautman, with concerns that Dulcich's route participation could be limited by the team's offensive scheme and the emergence of Chris Bell.
Insight pageJadarian Price
PositiveUsage20:46
Matt Kelley and Davis Mattek highlight that Price has more 'juice' than George Helani, and the coaching staff is acknowledging his talent. Despite a cautious Week 1 workload due to it being his first NFL game, the team is expected to increase his usage. Kelley notes that Price's previous fumble was a coachable decision-making error rather than a lack of ability, and he should absorb the snaps previously given to Emmanuel Wilson.
Insight pageJalen Hurts
PositiveProjection67:36
Matt Kelley defends Jalen Hurts against critics who claim he cannot throw, pointing out that even in his 'bad' seasons, the Eagles have easily made the playoffs, suggesting his future utility is higher than the market perceives.
Insight pageJavonte Williams
PositiveUsage2:05
Matt Kelley notes that Javonte Williams had a productive week one, scoring two touchdowns.
Insight pageJaylen Waddle
NegativeUsage13:53
Matt Kelley notes that Jaylen Waddle was moved around frequently and received schemed-up targets, though it did not translate to significant stat sheet production in week one.
Insight pageJordan Mason
NegativeInjury40:50
Jordan Mason is confirmed to be on IR with a thumb injury, opening up a potential role for backups in the Vikings' backfield.
Insight pageJordan Whittington
NegativeRole29:42
Davis Mattek expresses concern regarding the sudden emergence of positive coach speak for Jordan Whittington, noting that the team did not discuss him at all during the offseason, which threatens the target share of other players like Tyler Parkinson.
Insight pageJulian Hill
PositiveUsage46:47
Matt Kelley cites Mike McDaniel's comments indicating the Dolphins plan to utilize Julian Hill's skillset more moving forward, provided the game script doesn't force them away from their plan. Kelley notes the 23.5-yard line is high for a committee tight end but suggests following the coach speak.
Insight pageJustin Herbert
PositiveProjection63:26
Despite a poor Week 1 performance against the Raiders, Matt Kelley argues there is no chance the Chargers play that poorly again, viewing them as a strong game theory pick for survivor pools despite concerns about their interior offensive line.
Insight pageJustin Jefferson
PositiveProjection45:58
Matt Kelley is bullish on Justin Jefferson's performance against the Bears, stating he intends to project him for 99 yards and move him up in his rankings.
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
PositiveUsage39:32
Matt Kelley highlights Kenneth Walker's massive workload, noting 18.5 carries is a significant volume. Kelley suggests betting his longest rush prop, citing the Chiefs' recent defensive struggles against Derrick Henry, who dominated them both before and after contact.
Insight pageLuther Burden
PositiveUsage2:01
Matt Kelley notes that Luther Burden is the primary target in the Chicago Bears offense, suggesting he is the only consistent option in the passing game based on week one observations.
Insight pageRashod Bateman
PositiveUsage35:20
Matt Kelley and Davis Mattek like Rashad Bateman's outlook due to positive coach speak from the offensive coordinator, who praised his blocking and effort away from the ball. The staff explicitly stated a desire to scheme more touches for him, making his targets and yardage props attractive.
Insight pageSam Darnold
PositiveProjection69:14
Matt Kelley suggests that the Seahawks' future value will improve significantly once Sam Darnold returns to the lineup.
Insight pageSam Roush
PositiveValue22:07
Matt Kelley and Davis Mattek discuss Sam Roush as a high-value touchdown bet, noting he played more snaps than the Bears' WR4 and is often priced as a low-tier tight end.
Insight pageTreVeyon Henderson
NegativeUsage43:53
Matt Kelley advocates for taking the 'higher' on Trevion Henderson's receiving yards prop, arguing that if the Patriots' offense is struggling without AJ Brown, they should prioritize getting Henderson the ball to avoid being viewed as incompetent by the coaching staff.
Insight pageTrevor Lawrence
PositiveProjection9:01
Matt Kelley identifies Trevor Lawrence as the NFL leader in EPA per play and expresses strong confidence in him as a quarterback.
Insight pageZay Flowers
NegativeInjury35:03
Davis Mattek notes that Zay Flowers was present at practice but did not participate in drills or wear pads. Given the team is a heavy favorite, Mattek expects Flowers to sit out the upcoming game.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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1:00Before this, there's this. As you celebrate the game, take a deeper look at its roots.
1:05The people growing the grass, paving the lots, welding the goalposts, inspecting every football.
1:09The hardworking people that make every Sunday possible. Carhartt is proud to outfit the crews behind the game.
1:14Visit Carhartt.com slash join the trades to learn more.
1:17Unbelievably good week one for yourself and for Dave, the Dave's versus Goliath program.
1:21We hit our pick'em. Luther Burden receiving yards. Ashton Gentey doubled up his rushing yard prop.
1:25Javante Williams not only scored once, he scored twice.
1:28The Chicago Bears easily covered minus three points. We went 11 of 11 in our survivor entries.
1:33Our big survivor entry, we have 10 in the $100 on splash.
1:36Not only did we go 11 of 11. I would say our entries are probably worth thrice what an average entry is worth because we burnt a jet.
1:44We burnt a raider. We used zero Los Angeles chargers in our entry.
1:48Our only L last week was the Dallas football Cowboys against the New York Jets.
1:52And frankly, I don't really feel that bad about that one.
1:56That's just kind of, you know, that's the, that is the cost of doing business in these parts.
2:01Every once in a while, you are going to lose a Sunday night football game.
2:05My guy, Dave, how did week one treat you brother?
2:08It was good, man. I was stoked to hit the pick'em.
2:11But you know, week one is always humbling. You know, we talked so much over the off season about so many different things.
2:18And then when football is actually getting played, you get reminded like, oh shit, this is a little bit tougher than, than what I remember.
2:25So obviously thankful to hit the pick'em. You hit your Bears bet.
2:29I got railed by the New York Giants. I got railed in two aspects, being an OU laundry bro and being a Dallas Cowboy bro.
2:36So it was tough on that end, but we're only up from here.
2:40At least we were able to give the people some good advice for survivor.
2:44A nice pick'em. And now I'm ready to run it back.
2:47That's another pick'em, man. Yeah. I'm feeling, I'm feeling really, really good.
2:50Just kind of about like getting, getting off to that start in survivor.
2:54I tell you what, man, I would be, I would be feeling really not that optimistic about the future had we burned,
3:01you know, 30% of our entries on the chargers.
3:03We have like the exact opposite 30% of the field died roughly.
3:07Mm-hmm. And then there were a couple other, you know, weirdo picks in there that ended up losing as well.
3:12We've got the chargers as a viable option this week.
3:15And I am going to begin with my pick against the spread.
3:19Got the Chicago Bears last week. I was maybe sweating for like half a second when Jalen Coker scored his big long
3:25touchdown, but that one basically ended up being absolutely no sweat.
3:28My pick this week, I probably honestly am not going to take dogs very often.
3:33You know, there's kind of this old school Vegas thing.
3:36Like you just like people love to take the dogs.
3:39They love to be like wrong team favored, whatever that generally speaking, I go the other way.
3:43I'm like more likely to take an eight and a half point favorite than I am to take a six and a half point dog.
3:51But I'm going to take the Jacksonville Jaguars plus two and a half points against the Denver Broncos.
3:56And I'm actually just going to go ahead and toss $50 on the money line here.
4:01I actually do think this is a legitimate wrong team favored situation.
4:04The Jags got pressure on 45% of the Cleveland Browns dropbacks last week.
4:08Now, obviously, it's the Cleveland Browns. This is this is very this is a very different situation, but their pass rush is quite good.
4:15And the Denver Broncos offensive line is supposed to kind of be it's I mean, it's supposed to be the best in the I believe at ETR.
4:23I believe Mr. Thorne had them as the number one overall unit in the NFL.
4:27But having an elite pass rush can mitigate that.
4:30But frankly, there I mean, I do have a little bit of a clear statistical back argument for this one.
4:35But it would depend on how you would interpret this.
4:38But what generally speaking do NFL coaches do after they just got their ass kicked in a big spot in a national TV game?
4:45Keep it simple. Keep the ball on the ground limit turnovers.
4:48You know what you cannot do against the Jacksonville Jaguars?
4:51You cannot run the ball. They have the best run defense in the NFL.
4:55Quinchon Judkins had absolutely nothing against them last week.
4:58I'm expecting that to be a trend that continues for the entirety of the season, which means that the way that this
5:04is going to go is the Jags are going to be able to run the ball.
5:09I think pretty effectively. I mean, I don't know what what was that tackling?
5:13What was the tackling from the Denver Broncos last week?
5:16I've never seen anything like that in my life.
5:19I think they're going to think they're going to try and run.
5:22They're going to try and establish it like I would bet the the opening script drive for the Denver Broncos is like 6535 run to pass.
5:30And I just don't think they're going to have anywhere to go.
5:33And I think you're going to have Bo Nix at home home opener trailing the Jacksonville Jaguars after after week one.
5:39Trevor Lawrence leads the NFL in in EPA per play.
5:42I'm a Lawrence believer. I am in on the Jaguars on the road.
5:46And also, this is another I think part of the reason why the Broncos are favored by this much is that this
5:52flies in the face of a classic. If you've ever listened to NFL picks podcasting before you've heard this one before the
5:59Denver Broncos home field advantage the first weeks of the season.
6:02It's the biggest home field advantage in football. It's worth an extra half point against the spread.
6:07I don't give a shit about that. Line it up.
6:10Knock them down. The Jags are a better team than the Denver Broncos.
6:13I love it, man. I'm also on this angle.
6:16I'm going to have to come back to my pick later in the show because I think you just like mine.
6:22Uh, Davis and I do not talk about the spreads or totals before the show.
6:26So I'm at the audible, but we'll come back to that here by the end of the show.
6:32I'll figure something out, but I love that angle, man.
6:35I also think the Jags, I don't think they should be favored.
6:38Uh, just given it being in Denver and everything.
6:41And, you know, there might be some week one overreactions.
6:44We'll see how Davis Webb does in week two.
6:46Um, but I do think the Jacksonville Jaguars win.
6:49Uh, I want to ask you over under how many games before Tom Payton is back on the play sheet.
6:55I literally think we might get it at halftime in this game.
6:58I think there, I think there's a chance there was, um, I don't remember which person tweeted this, but they, they tweeted
7:04out like Sean Payton is having to, um, keep his hand tucked in his right pocket because he kept pressing the button.
7:11Like, like subconsciously pressed the button to talk to Bo Nix via the, the, the, I think they said that on the,
7:17on the show or on the show. Yeah. There you go.
7:20So, so he is, he is absolutely itching to, he's absolutely itching to, to get the button back.
7:26I mean, there's absolutely no doubt in my mind about that one.
7:29And, you know, it's just one of those situations where I think the Broncos were treated coming off of basically the worst the AFC has ever been.
7:37Like the chiefs have a horrible year. The Ravens have a horrible year and, and, um, you know, the Patriots have the easiest schedule in modern NFL history.
7:45And we treat the Denver Broncos like them topping their, I guess, getting second in the AFC last year is like this huge accomplishment.
7:52And I'm just not that certain it is. I mean, the game, they played great in the game against the bills.
7:58They were awesome in that game, but that was honestly more about the bill shooting themselves in the foot.
8:04The bills could have won that game three separate times.
8:06And it basically just didn't, I mean, the Josh Allen turned the fourth quarter turnover.
8:11It's just like, he just lost his mind on, on that turnover, you know?
8:15So I think, I think the Broncos are probably to me, the most overrated team relative to what I think their floor is.
8:21I think their baseline is quite good, but as we saw on, on, um, on Monday night, I mean, their floor is so low.
8:28Like this. So, so, so bad, man. And, uh, I like that they were able to move Waddle a bunch.
8:34I know he was getting some, some schemed up targets.
8:37It just didn't really get there on the stat sheet.
8:40It'll be interesting to see how they, how they bounce back this week in a, another very tough matchup.
8:46So, uh, I'm excited for this game. I think it's gonna be a little bit more of a slog.
8:51There's two top 10 rated defensive lines, uh, heading into the week.
8:55And we have the Broncos six overall this week and then the Jacks ninth overall.
8:59Uh, so it might be a little bit uglier than anticipated, but I do think this is one that the Jacks, Jacks, they come back to Jacksonville.
9:07So could, uh, could definitely, could definitely be a slog.
9:10Some of the other spots that I considered, but did not get there as my, as my favorite one of the week,
9:16going back to the well on the bears. They're going to be starting, uh, the Vikings are going to be starting Carson Wentz in this game.
9:24I'm a smidgen worried just about Caleb, like can make bad decisions when he is facing a ton of pressure.
9:29He can obviously kill the blitz too, but like the floor is defense plays a very high variance strategy.
9:35So I considered that one else considered the bangles against the Texans without Nico Collins.
9:39How, how are the Texans going to score 21 points in, in this game?
9:43The bangles defense looked much better in, in week one.
9:46I just, I don't know, man. Yeah. Yeah. I guess they're just going to give the month, the ball 30 times in
9:53his belly and see, see what happens. But yeah, I mean, Bucky, I feel like he didn't have a ton of room last week.
9:59I know he had, you know, he got there in the passing game, but it'll be interesting to see how this bangles run defense acclimates.
10:07Uh, acclimates throughout the course of the season. Obviously having sexy Dexie, uh, Lawrence there is, is quite so, uh, yeah, I'm interested to see this game.
10:15I'm surprised the totals at 45 and a half.
10:17Um, I don't know if the market is just anticipating this Texas defense night might not be as good as it was
10:24last year, or if that's just Josh Allen stat.
10:26Uh, it'll be interesting to see how they've pulled up against two elite quarterbacks.
10:30Yeah. All right, let's go ahead and get to some of our pick them entries had the shipper last week.
10:36Uh, so my absolute favorite prop this week, I don't, I don't think that this is going to be, uh, I would
10:42imagine this is going to be very, very, very, very, very, very, very popular.
10:46So you can do the Loveland, you can do the Loveland stuff any which way you can do touchdown, which I think
10:53lends itself very well to what Ben Johnson does.
10:55If you guys are, are familiar with Ben Johnson's work, he loves to reward his guys.
11:00Uh, he talked about this with the jaw day Walker touchdown last week there.
11:04He was like, you know, Johnny Walker has been out here absolutely grinding in the run game.
11:09So we wanted to get him a touchdown. They got him a touchdown.
11:13I think you could do targets. I think you could do receiving yards.
11:17I, because we are on underdog for this one, I'm just going to take the fantasy points.
11:21Cause you've got so many different outs there. I would say my, my favorite of the individual statistics wagers is probably the
11:28yards followed by touchdown followed by receptions. Cause I do think one of the interesting things with the bears is they might
11:34actually end up being one of these like hyper efficient offenses where they have these like four play 63 yard touchdown drives.
11:41And they might be one of the only, um, teams in the NFL that is that efficient, but this, every, all your
11:47favorite touts are going to be on this, this week at your Loveland.
11:51Loveland hires, uh, will probably be like the absolute number one, most touted thing this week, but, uh, I'm on, I'm on all the Loveland overs.
11:58I love it. We are in sync. I have Loveland at the top of my notes on props.
12:04I wanted to touch on, uh, I'm looking at the Mike, Mike nuggets terminal.
12:08Uh, we have press Taylor talking to conference yesterday saying how Loveland was the primary read, uh, on multiple calls, uh, against the Carolina Panthers.
12:15And the game kind of just played out where he just didn't, uh, the ball didn't see his way.
12:20So, uh, it was reassuring knowing that, you know, he had a good game blocking wise, uh, that press Taylor's coming out
12:27and saying like, Hey, we try to scheme him up the ball.
12:30It just didn't get there. So I think this is a pretty good bounce spot bounce back spot, uh, against the Vikings.
12:37Uh, I will play devil's advocate here. Please. A note.
12:39I remember from week one of last year when the bears played the Vikings, uh, after the post game presser, uh, Ben
12:46Johnson was kind of saying like, uh, a reporter asked him like, Hey, like why were the tight ends as a ball?
12:52Uh, this game, I believe they had like zero catches against the Vikings last year.
12:57And I think kind of what Ben Johnson was saying is that just given how Brian Flores sets up his blitz, uh,
13:03that we have to keep the tight ends in line a lot more than we typically would have to.
13:08Uh, so that's just kind of the back of my mind, like maybe, uh, Loveland's not gonna run as many routes as,
13:15uh, as we anticipate just given the blitz nature of Brian Flores defense.
13:19So, uh, I do think it's a nice bounce back spot.
13:22I do, I am okay with the seven and a half fantasy points.
13:26And then look at that Sam Rouse, anytime touchdown score.
13:28Woo. There you go. I'm going to, I'm going to run.
13:32I'm going to run. I'm going to run this one back.
13:35I bet this, I bet this last week. Um, I, that's that's first touchdown.
13:39That's that's first touchdown. Yeah. Okay. I'll say this.
13:42If draft Kings, if draft Kings offered me or FanDuel or any of these sports book, if they offered me draft Kings,
13:48not a sponsor of the show, though you could be.
13:51So send me an email. Um, if this was offered as a line, Sam Roush to score the first touchdown in any
13:57bears game this season at like two to one.
14:00I think I, I think I, I think I, you might not even have a target in the end zone this year.
14:06All right. I, I, I can see it. I can see it for this particular instance.
14:11Like I can see them being like, all right.
14:13It's like person, first and goal at the goal line.
14:16They're like on the two yard line. Exactly. We're team personnel.
14:19Loveland stays the block. Kamek stays the block. And then, you know, a little bootleg out and Caleb just hits like Sam Roush.
14:26And everyone's like, who the fuck does this help?
14:29Who the fuck's this guy? And then we're like, yeah, that helps us.
14:33So I do like it. I'm not sure about the two to one odds I would take on any, uh, but I like it.
14:39He played, um, he played more snaps than the wide receiver for, for the bears, which is that's, that's always what I,
14:46when I, the, the first touchdown stuff that I do is very, very simple.
14:50I just look at the odds and I look for tight end twos that are priced like tight end threes or tight
14:56end threes that are priced worse than the wide receiver for that is literally it.
15:01That is, that is my whole, that's my whole formula for looking at first touchdown bets.
15:05I mean, they're, they're, they're historically speaking, not very good bets, but well, they're, the markets are priced horribly.
15:11So like you guys can see this right now.
15:13Like if you were taking Josh Oliver at 40 to one, donate that to a children's charity instead.
15:19Yes. But I don't, so like, uh, cause I, I bet, um, who did that last night?
15:24Like Jackson Hawes, but like the, the bills had four different touchdowns inside the five yard line and Hawes was on the field for all of them.
15:31Which is like, that's really for, for that bet.
15:34That is all you were asking. So Colston Loveland, 7.95 fantasy points higher.
15:38I like the touchdown. I like the receiving yards as well.
15:41Receptions. I actually probably would not do. I don't think that's the way the bears offense is going to work.
15:47I think it's burden. And then I think it's everybody else based off of watching the first game.
15:52I think Khalif Raymond, I don't know if he'll have eight receptions for the rest of the season.
15:57Um, all right. So that is my first one, Dave, where do you want to look on the menu now?
16:03All right. So the way I'm approaching this this week is I just went through the entire Michael Douglas terminal and I
16:09looked for, for specific quotes that I think the market might be underreacting to or react overreacting to the other side of it.
16:16So I'm just going to list off the notes I have here and then we can look at other lines, but, uh,
16:22I want to look into Dulcet chunders. Uh, so I'm going to look, I'm going to look at the line right now
16:29and then you can pull up his quote. Uh, but basically it was just, um, I'm expecting to split a lot more
16:35time between, uh, well, uh, Cass Merrick, uh, and Dulcet.
16:38So like coming into the season, I know like a lot of best ball brothers are just assuming Dulcet was B, uh, that tight end one there.
16:46Uh, he's lined at 23 and a half yards, two and a half receptions, uh, four and a half targets.
16:52Uh, obviously this could be a trailing game script.
16:54Uh, the Niners have, you know, one of the best linebacking cores and the lead, uh, especially with Fred Warner leading helm there.
17:01Um, I'm just going to make notes of all these players and then we can kind of discuss if this is something
17:07we want to look into, but 23 and a half receiving yards to the under, uh, what do you think they're given their extreme expected trailing game script?
17:15So the reason why you wouldn't that just, and this is like, this is fish brain logic.
17:20This is not, uh, this is not quant logic, but knowing that the dolphins are literally probably going to be trailing from
17:27the first time they get the ball till the end.
17:30I, they were able to play a more conservative game plan last week because they were not losing by that much.
17:36I mean, they were losing the whole game, but they weren't losing like the, like the lions last night tilted.
17:42So, so heavy to the past because they were down by so much.
17:45And also Dolcich in a weird way, he has a different target profile than kind of your, your average tight end.
17:51His a dot is a little bit higher. He is more of a seam stretcher.
17:56He is not a, he's more of a Kyle pits style guy or a T for style guy than a Pat Fryermuth.
18:02Like Fryermuth could have four catches for, for 18 yards, you know?
18:06Um, but I, I don't, I, I also lower on two and a perceptions I think is, is good as well.
18:12The, the deal with Kassmerrick is, well, really the deal with Dolcich would be is they could swap Kassmerrick out for him.
18:18If they thought Chris Bell could run 75% of the routes.
18:21We talked about his route participation and his conditioning from the Mike nugget stuff last week.
18:26Um, I don't, I don't know if there's been an update on the Chris Bell, but if Chris Bell plays a lot
18:32more, that will be, that'll be bad for Dolcich.
18:35I think. Yeah. He went on to say yesterday that he feels like that's the season.
18:39This is Chris Bell. As the season goes on, he's going to keep getting more snaps and he's just like saying, I'm pressing the process.
18:47So to me, that's kind of reading like, Hey, um, I, I think maybe this week, I'm not going to see the
18:53increased snaps, but like in the coming weeks I might.
18:56Uh, so I'm not too sure how much he's going to play there, but, uh, yeah, if you type Chris Bell, I
19:02know Campbell gets pulled up there when you type in Bell, but, uh, um, and then you have to type Bella again,
19:09but, uh, yeah, I, I, I do think we will see his increased snaps.
19:13I'm just not certain it'll be this week, but again, we don't have to take, uh, this also, it's honors.
19:19Again, I just want to kind of talk through these, uh, players that I, I, that stood out to me, uh, and we can come back to this.
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20:29Before this, there's this. As you celebrate the game, take a deeper look at its roots.
20:33The people grow in the grass, paving the lots, welding the goalposts, inspecting every football.
20:38The hardworking people that make every Sunday possible. Carhartt is proud to outfit the crews behind the game.
20:43Visit carhartt.com slash join the trades to learn more.
20:46The second player I want to talk about was the Jadarian Price over on carries.
20:50I was, I was, I was hoping you would bring this one up.
20:54He's at 14 and a half yesterday. Brian Flory in his press conference said, we were deliberate about how the reps, about
21:00the reps that he was going to get and how he was going to be used.
21:05He didn't play in the preseason. It was his very first NFL game, huge stage.
21:09And we just want to be cautious in terms of workload.
21:12He obviously earned more reps moving forward and will continue to bring him along the way.
21:17So, uh, you know, obviously to the naked eye, to anyone watching, you know, Wednesday night football, they're seeing like, all right,
21:23this dude obviously has more juice than Helani. Uh, and now we're kind of getting some confirmation bias.
21:28Like, Hey, the coaching staff also recognizes this. Uh, it was a tough week one matchup.
21:33It was his very first game. Maybe that's why they try to limit it a little bit more.
21:38Uh, he is set at 14 and a half carries.
21:41Uh, obviously they're, uh, are they favored against the Cardinals?
21:44They have to be right. Yeah. They're favored by, they're favored by not as much as you would think because Drew Locke is playing.
21:51I believe they are favored by three and a half.
21:54Three and a half. Yes. Correct. Three and a half on the road at the Cardinals.
21:59So, uh, again, this is a little bit more fragile, right?
22:02If the Cardinals somehow, you know, play like they did last week and they're moving the ball a bunch and the Seahawks
22:08on a trillion game script because, you know, Drew Locke's not as good, uh, as Sam Donald, obviously this can be a
22:15little bit more of a risky one, but I do think we see an increased workload for a Jadarian price this week.
22:21Yes. Yeah. Uh, so this was, if, if you did not do the Jadarian price stuff, this was going to be mine
22:27because actually this comment before represented exactly what I thought, which was clearly the Seahawks coaches have eyes.
22:33They can go back and watch the film and they can say, all right, we watched George Helani.
22:38We watched Emmanuel Wilson and we watched Darian price.
22:40The only bad carry that you Darian price had was just a bad decision.
22:44It wasn't a lack of physical ability. It was a, I want to say it was a second and short, maybe a
22:51third and short where he bounced it outside instead of cutting up.
22:54But that is a, that is a coachable moment, right?
22:57That's not a, that's not a, this guy's bad moment.
23:00That's a, that is a very coachable moment. I've been saying this just for fantasy stuff, which is the easiest thing is
23:06you just excise the four carries or the four snaps that Emmanuel Wilson got.
23:11You say, all right, well, price can definitely handle that.
23:13So then that gives him two or three more rush attempts right there.
23:17Also gives him the goal line stuff. And there's, I mean, George Helani is what he is.
23:22I don't, he's not a guy who's like going to get caught.
23:26I don't think his role is going to go to zero, but there's no reason if price is playing well to pull him off the field.
23:33And like obvious, like there's no reason to do the quorum Kyron rotation.
23:37You just play Helani as the long down distance guy.
23:40So I like the rushing attempts. I also like the receiving yards.
23:43That was one of the things I thought was interesting was price.
23:47I mean, he had 15 receptions at Notre Dame.
23:49So we just have like no way of knowing if he's any good at a receiver at all, but his prospect profile, it's a little bit smaller.
23:57He's a, he was a really good kick and punt return.
24:00Actually one of the best kick returners in FBS that would profile to me as a good receiver.
24:06So I like rush attempts and I like receiving yards.
24:08I'm going to lean, you know, I can kind of see him getting there on a, on just one target on the receiving yards.
24:15Um, I, I don't know how much of the games, uh, the game plan last week for the charges was a game
24:22specific versus like, Hey, like, uh, the Caroline or the Cardinals linebackers are covering a running backs.
24:27Well, we can't really target them. Um, so I'm going to lean rush attempts, just given that they're favored.
24:32We have some positive coach speak on, on Jadarian price.
24:35So, uh, let's lean higher rush attempts and hope that they get off to a hot start.
24:40So, you know, they start establishing the run. Yeah.
24:43And I, you know, this game is one of the more interesting games of the, of this late.
24:48We'll talk about it more when we get to survivor.
24:51I think where the assumption that the market is making now is that, Oh, the Cardinals, man, Cardinals might be kind of good.
24:57Cardinals defense, Jeremiah love look good. You know, we got Kendrick Bourne's contributing and it might just be the chargers are a mess.
25:04Might just be, it might just be the chargers have no interior offensive line.
25:08The, uh, the, the defensive coordinator changes are no good that their personnel is just not as good as we thought.
25:14And you know, if the, if the Cardinals get blown out this week by the Seahawks and drew lock, am I going to really be that surprised?
25:22Not really. I, I really, I really wouldn't be also would, would not be that surprised if the, if the chargers get
25:29their shit together and handle the Raiders as well.
25:31Like football is a weird game so much. I mean, obviously everyone does this, this, uh, thought experiment and it's so trite,
25:37but let's go back and look at week one of 2025 and go remember some of the insane stuff that happened like, and how anomalous these things are.
25:46Um, the bangles almost lost to the Browns, uh, in, in that game, uh, to, to, to the Raiders beat the Patriots representing the AFC in the Superbowl.
25:54The Cardinals beat the new Orleans saints, uh, in, in that game, the, uh, the Packers smoked the lions, the, the Rams and Texans.
26:01It was like almost an unwatchable game. Of course the, uh, everyone remembers the huge key on Coleman to touchdown game in Ravens bills.
26:08Uh, JJ McCarthy beat the Chicago bears and the Minnesota Vikings and Monday night football.
26:12Like weird stuff happens in week one that you will barely remember.
26:15And got offensive player of the week at that.
26:18Offensive player of the week. Uh, quite crazy. So I, I do like prices, uh, rush attempts, you know, you can kind
26:24of just tell yourself like, Hey, there's some positive coach speak on him.
26:28They have a full week of prepping of drew lock.
26:31You know, let's just try to establish the fuck out of the run and use our first round talent.
26:37Right. So, uh, I like prices carries. I'm glad we're on locks up there.
26:41The third one I wanted to talk about was the Vontae Adams.
26:44I know a lot of people were worried about his usage this past game.
26:48He wasn't in the 13 personnel packages in the red zone.
26:51Uh, he wasn't in any red zone snaps from what I remember, uh, but he came out yesterday saying, Hey, I was sick.
26:58And I felt like shit. So, you know, to me, that's kind of like telling me that's huge.
27:03That's huge. And no one's talking about it. Yeah.
27:06No one's talking about it. Uh, he was under the weather.
27:09Uh, and obviously they had the massive travel day.
27:12So, you know, being sick, traveling, all that bunch, you know, that can play a massive role into how many snaps he's
27:18running or how many routes he's running, how many snaps he's playing, if he's going to be in the red zone or not.
27:25So to me, I'm kind of just like not waving this and being like, Hey, it was just a weird week.
27:31Why he was not there in the red zone.
27:33And something also that I took note of is like, you know, these players talk, you know, semi-frequently that, you know, a couple of times a week.
27:41And usually we get some information about them into our terminal.
27:44Um, but he's one that we got nothing on for us since September 6th.
27:49And then the second one was yesterday. So I was wondering like, Hey, maybe was he not talking to the media because
27:55he was like actually sick or whatnot. So yeah, he was under the weather.
27:59He wasn't feeling a hundred percent. I think we can attribute this to his role to this.
28:04So I want to look into his overs on receiving yards.
28:07It's only 44 and a half against the giants, uh, receptions is three and a half.
28:12And then obviously his touchdown, uh, is always juicy.
28:14So, uh, I'm going to throw this to you.
28:17Well, what's, what's angle do you want to approach here?
28:20Man, this is, this is, uh, this is not an angle that I expected to take this week.
28:25Like I was like, dude, I was ready to like write Devante Adams off straight up.
28:30Like I was ready. I was ready to be done with, with Devante Adams this year.
28:34I, that, that, I would have never found that quote.
28:37I don't think, uh, without, without the Mike Nuggets tournament, really, really, really, really good.
28:42No one's reporting it for whatever reason to me.
28:44I saw that I was like, yo, this is, this is like a big deal.
28:49So, uh, again, you can check out the whole quote feed on Mike Nuggets.
28:53It's 99 or $99 for the year, 999 a month.
28:55Uh, the fastest coach speak, player speak, GM speak all that, uh, on the site.
29:00But yeah. So, uh, I think after this week, if we still see the same role, then we did that we did
29:06last week, then we can start to panic. But me personally, I'm still relatively calm.
29:11I'm going to play him a bunch of showdown just cause you know, there is a chance that he was just sick
29:17and didn't play that much cause cause of that.
29:20So did we get, did we get any speak on the, on the tight end room?
29:24Did we get anything on my boys, uh, on my boys, T for Parkinson, uh, anything?
29:29I did not see anything on Ferguson worth sharing.
29:31Uh, the Adams one was the big one that, that stood out to me when, uh, when going through all the quotes before the show.
29:39So I don't, I don't love, I don't love this Whittington thing.
29:42They, they didn't talk about, they didn't talk about Jordan Whittington for the entire off season.
29:47And now we get Nate Sheilhaas give a three paragraph answer about Whittington.
29:51So I can't say, can't say I'm loving to hear that with my big bags of T for, I mean, look, if
29:57the, if the first half usage from this is, here's my cope, uh, here's, here's my T for cope.
30:02So first half usage was more bullish than anything I could have imagined.
30:0673% wrap participation, uh, played like 83% of the snaps overall, like basically just didn't come off the field.
30:12Then in the second half, he was like totally subbed out.
30:15It was like, it was all, they, they were playing 11.
30:18They were playing Whittington and Xavier Smith and Kanata Mumfield and instead.
30:22But, uh, that is, that is, is my cope.
30:24So I don't want to, I, I like the Devonta Adams angle.
30:28I think the move would be to shop for a good touchdown price for him.
30:32Cause I still think that's the whole deal with Adams.
30:35It's, it's all about the, it's all about the red zone stuff.
30:38And frankly, I would think that that will probably be like a relatively low volume spot.
30:43Like I, I just, I don't think they're going to run a ton of plays there.
30:48What I want to check was I want to check the gente receiving stuff.
30:52I wanted to see what, okay. Well, five receptions.
30:54Nevermind. Okay. Well, I was going to say, I was going to say, I wanted to check, but I don't, I actually
31:01don't, I actually don't want to check. I don't want to check it that much.
31:05That is, um, that is a lot higher than I was anticipating.
31:09The other one was, I wanted to see if JCM stuff.
31:12Oh, okay. Perfect. This is the next one I was going to bring up.
31:16Uh, this is great. So I'll read the quote that, uh, that Bill had or that, uh, Dan Quinn had about fail.
31:22Um, but it was really bullish. Again, if you're not subscribed to Mike nuggets, you can just follow us on Twitter where
31:29we tweet out a bunch, uh, a bunch of these quotes.
31:32Again, there's probably, you know, out of the hundred, uh, quotes we put into the terminal a day, uh, you know, maybe
31:38only like five to eight, make it out to Twitter.
31:41Uh, but sorry, it wasn't Dan Quinn. It was David Blau.
31:44Um, kind of just, you know, having strong confidence in JCM, the, the reporter asked him about the fumble and then he
31:51kind of like nod waved the question and just like started just spewing about how much he loves him.
31:56Um, yeah, that that's the quote. I'm sorry. I'm looking at the wrong one.
32:00It's that, uh, September 16th on the one you have highlighted.
32:03Yeah. Uh, again, if you have a subscription, you can click the listen here button where you can hear the reporter ask the question.
32:10So you get the full context, but basically the report is like, Hey, how was JCM after this fumble?
32:16And then Dan Quinn's like, yeah, it's obviously a priority for us, but also here's like a three paragraph SMY bills been
32:22such an amazing back for our scheme. So, uh, obviously we saw how bad the Cowboys defense was, uh, against the giants.
32:29Uh, I'm into JCM stuff this week. I, I think that this is one of the few chances you are going to
32:35get to buy an underpriced running back against the Dallas Cowboys.
32:38It's your, your Dallas Cowboys. I think it's, I think it's really, I think it's really, really wrong.
32:43I now I will say this. If you have bill bags and fantasy, if he fumbles again here, it's bad.
32:49It's really, you, you could probably, you could, you could probably say K Toronto is going to get the lead for the
32:55rest of the game and probably next week. But the quote is exactly, if you're a bill guy, like I am, it
33:02would be exactly what you'd want to hear after a fumble, which is the coaches admitting the obvious truth, which is that
33:08bill is the only running back they have that has any juice.
33:12Like they know Rashad white has no juice. K Tron is juicely, like K Tron is already speed run being Najee Harris.
33:18Like he's just like, yeah, like he can get you, he can get you, he can get you three and a half yards.
33:25Like, you know, he's not going to fumble. He's like pretty dependable, but, uh, JCM higher than 53 and a half rushing
33:31yards is where I want to go with, um, with our, with our prop here.
33:35I love it. Uh, I'm going to continue to list.
33:38I have about four more names we can talk about.
33:41Um, and then we can kind of decide what, I don't know if we just want to do this, three entry every
33:48week or what, but, uh, I do think just blow and quit coming out and saying, Hey, we understand ball security is an issue.
33:55We don't really care because this guy's that good.
33:57So, uh, yeah, 53 yards against the Cowboys. The only way I would say that's a bad line is if you really
34:04think K Tron Allen plays a lot more, a lot more snaps this week.
34:08So, uh, I love the JCM angle this week.
34:10Yes. Yeah. Uh, it's, it's, it's quite good. So there we go.
34:14Oh, we got our first, and we can cook another one up too.
34:18We can actually, actually, what we should do. You know what?
34:21Let's reuse, reuse these picks. Let's hit like, let's go for like a six, seven leg.
34:25Let's give the people what they want. Let's give the people what they want.
34:29We are, uh, we, we were five of eight on the, uh, on the eight legger last week.
34:35So we're, we're, uh, we're directionally accurate there. Loveland 7.95 fantasy points, sharing price higher than 14 Nafirush attempts, JCM 53 Nafirush yards.
34:41We're going to reuse these picks and we are, uh, we are going to, we're going to cook even more where, what
34:48direction do you want to go now? Uh, give me one second.
34:51I need to, I'm getting corporate spamming me real quick.
34:54Let me, uh, Hey, that happens. That's happened. So I can, uh, I can go ahead and move to one of the
35:00ones I wanted to look at the Ravens receiving stuff.
35:03I wanted to see if there was anything posted flowers was at practice, but didn't do anything.
35:08I wanted to see if they had Surratt or any of these other guys for receiving yards.
35:13I don't think they will. I was, yeah. Uh, maybe, maybe if I click the receiving tab, Bateman 32 and a half yards.
35:20This is the perfect segue because, uh, Bateman was one of the guys I had highlighted, uh, in my notes.
35:26Uh, I like Bateman a lot this week. Uh, and again, I say, I like him a lot.
35:31I haven't seen his prop line. So I do need to see that.
35:35Um, but he is, uh, he got some positive coach speak from, uh, the clan door, obviously the new offensive coordinator, but,
35:41uh, his play off the ball, his blocking, uh, led the staff to being like, Hey, we need to get this guy more touches.
35:48We see what you're doing. It's almost kind of like the Ben Johnson thing.
35:52We know the clan door comes from the Ben Johnson tree and saying like, Hey, we see what you're doing the game.
35:58We know you're not getting the ball, but we want to scheme up some more touches for you.
36:04So, uh, I do think we see a little bit more targets this week for Rashad Bateman and a plus matchup against the saints.
36:11All right. I'm, I'm hip. I mean, I just think basically the Baltimore Ravens are going to be able to do whatever they want in football this year.
36:19I think they are going to be death star.
36:21I think we are going to see the bears, the Ravens and the bills just kind of compete to see who can
36:28have like the most efficient, like EPA offense. So Zay was, Zay was at practice today, but he did not practice is,
36:34is what he was at practice, but he didn't do any running or, or have pads on or do anything during media availability.
36:41I am, I am guessing that Zay flowers will not play particularly because they're, they're favored by a ton.
36:46Like if this was, uh, you know, if they were playing the bills at home.
36:51Yes. Yeah. I think, I think he probably would.
36:53I don't think he will play in this game.
36:56So I'm good with that one. Um, I wanted, yes.
36:59Before we switch to the next one, I just want to read out this quote real quick.
37:04Cause if you are Bateman bull, if you were taking him in the last round, I think you'd be pretty happy to
37:10hear this, but the clan goal saying yesterday, as the game gets going, you're like, man, I got to get Bateman a
37:16touch because he's played really well from away from the football.
37:20And that was the thing I was most excited about you turn on the tape.
37:24He's blocking. He's going after people that long touchdown run from Derek.
37:27It's sprung by Bateman on the front side. And so guys that play like that, that play the way that we want
37:34to play, you want to feed them and get them going.
37:37So I like his yards. I like his targets prop.
37:40Uh, I do think we see Bateman a little bit more involved out there.
37:44He had a really good game last week. It just didn't show up on the stat sheet.
37:49Yeah. Yeah. Which is kind of the, that is how that is like, this is how Bateman types get the ball.
37:55I mean, I just mentioned it with Jada Walker, like the bears did the same thing.
38:00They were like, Jada Walker's just out here busting his ass.
38:03So Kyle, I'm an unguy can score 60 yard rushing touchdowns.
38:06Let's get Jada, um, a touchdown. I did just want to see what Walker's, uh, rushing stuff is against the, uh, you have the Colts.
38:13Literally half the guys I have written on my notes is, uh, guys I want to bring up.
38:18So, uh, again, Walker's another one. The enemy came out yesterday or two days ago.
38:23I was like saying like, Hey, there is no, uh, there is.
38:26Yeah. That's that first quote right there. But to summarize, it's like, Hey, there's not a carry limit on this guy.
38:32We're not going to minimize our guy. There's been so many running backs in the past.
38:37I've carried bigger loads than, than Walker did this past week.
38:40Let's give this guy the ball. There's not going to be any limit to what we're going to give him.
38:46So, uh, obviously to me, that just screams, you know, go bet the over.
38:50Obviously you have to think about that a little bit more strategically, but yeah.
38:54What is this carries over? Uh, it's eight, it's 18 and a half.
38:58Uh, people are asking if there's a, if there's a Davis promo code for Mike nuggets, we might have to cook something up.
39:04We'll, we'll, uh, cook, cook something up. Have the, have the code be, uh, have the code be Goliath.
39:10Ooh. Okay. Yeah. We will right now there is not any, uh, promo for, for Davis, but we will, we will get on that.
39:17We'll figure something out. We'll figure, we'll figure. Uh, if you do end up signing up and obviously without the code right
39:23now, just, just DM us on Twitter and we'll, we'll figure something out.
39:27But, uh, uh, yeah. So Walker, obviously the, the coach speak is so good on him.
39:3218 and a half carries is a lot. You know, they would have to, I would say if we want to just
39:38take the, the, I mean, this is just inevitable.
39:41We could take, we could take the touchdown or longest rush.
39:44I love, I love longest rush. That's what I love.
39:47We saw them get absolutely destroyed by Derek Henry this past week before contact, after contact, all of it.
39:52It was just go longest rush on KW three.
39:55And man, I'm sorry. I can't imagine how hyped you are as a cheese fan, having like an actual running back that is like elite.
40:02I mean, when was like 2017 with Han was the last time the chiefs had something like this.
40:07So the, the, there has been one game since my homes got drafted there.
40:11There's been over 130 rushing yards. It was Clyde over to layer in a divisional game, his, his rookie year in the,
40:18in the playoffs, but Kenneth Walker in that game against the Broncos, that was the most rushing yards.
40:23A chiefs running back has ever had with my homes on the field.
40:27Oh, the rich get rich. I love it. The, um, the chiefs, the chiefs, uh, the last two seasons, since they started
40:33tracking explosive brushes as a stat, they're the two worst explosive rush seasons in NFL history.
40:38The 2025 chiefs and the 2024 chiefs. It's a, it's a new day.
40:42It's a new day at, uh, at G hop field at, at Arrowhead stadium.
40:46Um, there's two more. I want to touch on real quick before we enter survivor.
40:50One of them, we know, uh, we know Jordan Mason is out on IR with a thumb injury.
40:55And you know, this kind of happens every year.
40:58We're like, we have a late round flyer that people really like in this case being the Mont Claiborne and people are just like immediately gravitating.
41:05It's like, Oh, Jordan Mason's out. Perfect. Like the Mont Claiborne can slop back in, uh, into his role and be good there.
41:12But to me, all the coach speak I've seen this week between Wes Phillips, the offensive coordinator, Kevin O'Connell, the head coach
41:18is dumb kind of being like, Hey, we're not too comfortable with the Mont Claiborne yet.
41:23We're actually really comfortable with DJ Dallas. DJ. So I want to see if there's any, any props on dumb.
41:29That'd be interesting to me. Yeah. Yeah. I figured they wouldn't mind them.
41:33Uh, there's something to take note of. There, there will be Sunday morning.
41:36There will be some guys. So guys like this, they're not going to add anything until, until Sunday morning.
41:42But like if DJ Dallas, if his line on underdog is half a reception, I would, I would, it probably won't be,
41:48but if it was, I would, I would take the, uh, the higher there.
41:52Yeah. I'm going to go ahead and read out this quote, uh, that KOC had the other day.
41:58One thing that I've really noticed is like when multiple coaches go out of the way to like raise a guy multiple
42:04times throughout the week, that's just, you know, that should just turn on a light bulb in your head.
42:09Um, there's been so much positive coach speak on DJ Dallas and really the only quote about, uh, Claiborne has been, um,
42:16Kevin O'Connell says, uh, he says this at the NFL level with pass protection, all the different things that could come up.
42:22It's not as simple as just going in there and running the ball 15 or 20 times.
42:27There's a lot of layers to protection to the past game and even the run game itself from multiple plays at the line of scrimmage.
42:34So we really want to allow the mom to get comfortable and be ready when he feels to hit the ground.
42:40Uh, so to me, I know everyone's like wish catching, Hey, the mom, Clayboard's going to play a bunch.
42:46He's going to fill in the role for Jordan Mason.
42:49Uh, but between that quote and what's been said about DJ Dallas this week, I'm kind of leaning, Hey, it's not quite his time yet.
42:56Uh, again, it's not a guy you're going to play in DFS or anything.
43:00Maybe you'll take his props Sunday morning, but just keep in the back of your mind.
43:05If you have like Claiborne stash and you thought about starting him or was excited about the waiver pickup, just like, uh, tamper your expectations.
43:12I'm still, I'm still stashing him because when the, when the, when the, when the bullets start flying, um, and you watch
43:18DJ, there's a difference between watching a DJ Dallas in a game and watching him, um, in practice.
43:24Right. Uh, I think a lot of coaches have had that experience.
43:27Like you remember they, there, there are some players that they just say are bad practice players.
43:32Like I, I, the example I always remember is Tebow, all his coaches would be like, this guy looks like shit in practice.
43:39And then he gets to the game and he just makes stuff happen.
43:42DJ Dallas is the opposite. DJ Dallas is the ideal practice player.
43:46And then the games happen and, and he can't get anything.
43:49I was curious. Um, I want to take something with Trevion Henderson.
43:53Would you rather take rushing yards, rush attempts or receiving yards?
43:56Cause this is how I am thinking about the situation.
43:59I think receiving yards is seven and a half.
44:01Yes. Yeah. Fuck. He's not going to run very many routes, but my, my, my thought is if the Patriots without AJ
44:08Brown don't see, they have no explosive players and don't make it a point to get Trevion Henderson, the ball.
44:13I'm going to like, think all the coaches are dumb.
44:16I'm going to be like, you guys, you guys are, you guys are dumb and bad.
44:21I, I agree. This is something that I would imagine projections aren't a fan of, but we're kind of just like, I can't for sure.
44:28We're, uh, we're to know better than, you know, what the market says.
44:32I'm going to receive in yards. I just want to say something a little bit more before we are done with the
44:38fucking, uh, Vikings RB two and three. Uh, obviously I'm just, you know, playing devil's advocate.
44:43DJ Dallas has 22 career carries. So right. It's easy to talk this guy up during practice.
44:48It's easy, uh, to say like, yeah, he's going to have a role on first and second down.
44:53I do want to make note that he is 30 pounds heavier than the Montclair board.
44:58So maybe we see him at the goal line if Aaron Jones gets, gets spelled or something.
45:03Um, but again, all these quotes, all this information, it's just here to help you, uh, be informed and making your decisions.
45:09Obviously we know DJ Dallas is in some elite talent and, you know, probably the Montclair board's a lot better.
45:15Uh, but from everything I've seen, I don't, I'm not sure the staff is ready to throw the Montclair board out there.
45:21And that's not to say he might not be ready in like two or three or five weeks, but I'm just setting expectations for this week specifically.
45:29This is my main experience with DJ Dallas. I saved of, I saved a flex spot for DJ Dallas in this game,
45:36in the double spy on draft Kings. And I was pretty dead and I watched the entirety of this game.
45:41He was the worst running back I've ever seen, but he flopped in for two touchdowns, five receptions for 17 yards and
45:48a touchdown, 18 carries for 41 yards in a touchdown.
45:51It was a true, uh, it was, it was a truly phenomenal experience.
45:54We're going to take the receiving yards there for Trevion Henderson.
45:58And I also wanted to see just what Justin Jefferson had.
46:01I think Justin Jefferson, Justin Jefferson against the bears.
46:03I, I, I should be, I'm going to take him to like 99 yards.
46:07Actually. I'm just going to, I'm going to slide him.
46:10I'm going to slide him all the way up.
46:13We're going to do this one, um, as a flex.
46:16So give me your, uh, wait to get, to get to an eighth pick.
46:20Give me your, give me your last. Is there anyone you want to look at here?
46:25Yep. I got one last guy on my list.
46:27Um, a run against him. Uh, his line right now is 22 and a half.
46:31I'm going to share a quote that Mike McDaniel said.
46:34Well, that's actually really interesting. Yeah. Uh, I'll, I'll, I'll read this out, but Mike McDaniel yesterday said the way the game
46:41went and didn't play out that way. Every week we try to get, keep the opponent off balance by different ways to utilize people.
46:48I expect Gaz then to get more, the game plan didn't particularly play out, but moving forward and this game in particular,
46:54we may plan on utilizing his skillset more. Uh, I would expect him to be more involved outside of the unforeseen situation
47:00where the game and the parameters with which you're playing it changed.
47:04So basically what, or what McDaniel is saying is like, Hey, we're expecting to use him a lot more this week, unless
47:10it's a weird fucking game script where we're just getting destroyed or something.
47:14So, um, I do think we see a little bit more gas than this week, 23 and a half, uh, is a
47:20little bit high for a tight end and a three-way committee, but you know, we're the fall to coach speak here.
47:27So $10 to win $1,134, uh, a bunch of hires, not a single lower.
47:31I love it. Uh, but these are fun, man.
47:33This is fun. This is, this is fun for the people to tail.
47:37Again, we have some backing on coach speak and players speak throughout all these pigs.
47:41So ain't no committee. Yeah. Uh, the Kolar bears me, uh, he's dead.
47:45He's dead. Look, I drafted a bunch of Charlie Kolar at the end.
47:49It's dead. It's over brother. I mean, at this point you are, we need an injury or he just, he literally just
47:55has to have like a Mike Vrabel season. He's got to have eight targets, eight receptions, eight touchdowns.
48:00That's it. That's the only way. That's the only way he ever ends up being useful.
48:05I think it's not happening. Yeah. I'm pretty, you know, I have a lot of him.
48:10I still have like 20 something percent of him, uh, mostly on DraftKings, but yeah, I'm pretty much in the boat.
48:16I like this dude's toast. Uh, and he could get there if there's an Njoku or Gadsden injury, but yeah, man, obviously
48:22this was probably the most likely outcome, but yeah, it's looking, it's looking pretty bad.
48:27It's looking, it's looking, uh, it's looking pretty bad.
48:29Uh, all right. Before we get into survivor, just need to mention our sponsor live line IQ.
48:34This was actually sick. I got the notification on my phone at halftime last week, but their, their stuff had the live over in bears, Panthers.
48:42I don't care about my exact weight. I don't care how much I weigh.
48:46I care about how good I look and how good I feel.
48:49And that's why I'm so happy. I found HIMSS.
48:52Weight loss by HIMSS now offers access to the FDA approved Wagovi pill and Wagovi pen.
48:56Wagovi is designed to help you lose weight and keep it off.
49:00Plus HIMSS gives you the support you need to actually stick with it.
49:04You connect with a licensed provider who will determine if treatment is right for you.
49:08If prescribed, your medication is delivered right to your door.
49:11No insurance necessary. HIMSS makes hitting your goals seamless by offering access to 24 by seven messaging with your care team and
49:17in-app lifestyle and nutrition support like recipes, sleep content, and boy, the pod father needs his sleep.
49:22So if you're ready to reach your goals like I am, visit HIMSS.com slash player profile to get a personalized, affordable plan that gets you.
49:29That's HIMSS.com slash player profile. HIMSS.com slash player profile.
49:32Weight loss by HIMSS is not available in all 50 states.
49:35Wagovi is a registered trademark of Novo Nordisk AS.
49:38To get started and learn more, including important safety information with Govi clinical study information and restrictions, visit HIMSS.com.
49:43Before this, there's this. As you celebrate the game, take a deeper look at its roots.
49:48The people grow in the grass, paving the lots, welding the goalposts, inspecting every football.
49:52The hardworking people that make every Sunday possible. Carhartt is proud to outfit the crews behind the game.
49:58Visit Carhartt.com slash join the trades to learn more.
50:00And it smoked. It was gone. I want to say, I want to say, I believe, I believe I bet it at 76 and a half.
50:08And it just like blew by. The bears almost got that.
50:11The bears almost, the bears almost, the bears almost got that on its own.
50:15So shout out to my friends over at Liveline IQ.
50:18I actually just talked to them yesterday and they reminded me that you can get a 40% discount for the first two months with code Davis.
50:25So hop at the link of that is in the description.
50:29It is. And they actually just implemented the feature.
50:31Someone asked about this in the comments last week, but if you're in the app on your phone, it will just open it up automatically.
50:38Wow. Okay. So, so you just, it's just the, it's just, it just puts it right in the slip.
50:44It like works the same way like Gambly does where you, you type it in and then it just pops it right
50:50in to your, I think it works on DraftKings, FanDuel, MGM and Caesars.
50:54And I also told them yesterday, they need to work on adding Polly and Kalshi because I would, I would bet, I
51:00actually don't know this, but anecdotally I would bet that the live stuff on Polly and Kalshi is very exploitable because you
51:07are working with a bunch of, frankly, the, the liquidity providers on Polly and Kalshi outside of like main, main markets are going to just be just guys.
51:15It's literally just going to be guys providing liquidity to the market.
51:18So I would think that'd be pretty exploitable. All right.
51:21Time to lock in because we have some big, big business here on, on our survivor.
51:26So to recap survivor last week, we did one, two, we did two Raiders.
51:30We did one New York football jets. We did one, two, three, four, five Pittsburgh Steelers.
51:35And we burnt two Jags. I mean, obviously in, in retrospect, obviously I wish we would have just went like 10 jets,
51:41you know, but really, really optimal, um, distribution there only burning, frankly, only burning two Jags.
51:46Really, really good for the portfolio. I think it was fantastic, man.
51:49And I know we came on here last week, we were touting the jets and I know that felt really uncomfortable.
51:55Uh, but it turned out working out pretty well.
51:58Uh, so I'm happy there again, obviously I think Sunday morning we were talking about like, should we run five jets?
52:04Should we run one? We're going to decide how much, how much exposure we really wanted to have, uh, with the jets.
52:10Uh, but just giving like their ownership and like, what do you win when you, when they win?
52:16Uh, wasn't that high. We decided to only go with one, but still just having one jet in our, in our portfolio just out of the way.
52:23It's just, it feels good. We're 11 for 11.
52:26We have a lot to discuss this week. Um, I'm excited to pick your brain cause we haven't talked about what, what
52:32angle we're going to play our portfolio this week.
52:35Uh, but yeah, there's a couple of games we need a touchdown.
52:38Uh, do you want to start with the 49ers versus the dolphins?
52:42Yeah. So this is the big question this week is basically the 49ers are, are more or less guaranteed, um, a win.
52:48However, they obviously have loads of future value. Um, they are, if you, if you look at the run, the Sims future
52:55cost, they would be one of the top five teams to burn in terms of, uh, of future value this week.
53:01And then I have a Cody stuff pulled up as well on ETR.
53:05He has them as the sixth highest future costs that you could burn this week.
53:09So it's not great, right? It's it's, I think, do you want to stone?
53:13Spade the 49ers? I don't, I don't think so.
53:16I think if you're doing a portfolio exposure, you should probably use some of them, but just because they are like, you
53:22know, Cody, Cody had this really fun tweet that I'm going to spend the rest of the year mocking where he was
53:28like, it doesn't matter how many Sims you run because you're just going to get beat by some dude who goes, LOL, no way they lose.
53:36And, uh, the 49ers are this week's LOL. No way they lose like the Steelers.
53:40The Steelers last week were the LOL. No way they lose.
53:43It was a sweat, man. It was a little bit.
53:46I was like, Oh shit. This is, it was a sweat in the sense that the Steelers were never going to make
53:53it easy, but Cooper rush was so bad that it was just like, how many points can they possibly get?
53:58Like, I don't even think they can get to, um, to 20 points now.
54:03So that is, that is the big, big favorite.
54:05Right. And that is basically just like, you have to decide what is the 49ers future worth to me?
54:11Is it worth it to me? This is, so this is a point I'm like, not even kidding about, which is the 49ers have Kittle who's 33 CMC.
54:19Who's 30 Mike Evans, who's 34. And then Purdy has missed a game with multiple games with injury every year of his career.
54:25Every single year, Brock Purdy has missed time with injury.
54:28So what you have to ask yourself is how comfortable the 49ers have the oldest offense in the NFL.
54:34They were saying that on the Netflix broadcast, they on, on aggregate, the, the median age of the 49ers offense are the oldest offense in the NFL.
54:42It goes for their line as well. So are you feeling really good about them being healthy in week eight?
54:47I think that's like a legitimate question to ask.
54:50Yeah. This is something that I think like the models have like a really hard time digesting.
54:55It's just like accounting for injuries that might happen later in the season, especially with the 49ers being, you know, the 49ers.
55:01So I'm just like looking at their best matchups ahead.
55:04We have week three against the Cardinals in our specific contest.
55:07I believe that's a double pick week. You have week six versus Washington on Monday night football.
55:12That can be a nice spot. Week seven against Atlanta.
55:15Week nine versus Vegas. Week 18 against Arizona. So again, like you're talking about, they do have a lot of future value.
55:22It just, to me, how much do we want to weigh the risk of potential injury?
55:26To me personally, I think, yeah, I kind of want to play them like the Jags last week.
55:32I feel really good about them. I don't want to dedicate my entire portfolio.
55:36We have 10 teams left. Let's, you know, dedicate maybe one or two to the, to the Niners, just given how much future value they have.
55:43Because again, they're not guaranteed to get hurt. Obviously, you know, they always get hurt, but I don't want to like just
55:49play the Niners off the facts like, Hey, these guys are healthy.
55:53And that means they can't be healthy the rest of the season.
55:56So yeah, definitely not a full fade. But I think one or two, three entries.
56:01So like 20 to 30% in our portfolio is something that's optimal.
56:04I agree. I also think they, we, we've earned ourself a little bit of cover because they are a good pairing with
56:11the Raiders and with the Jets entry. Because those entries, like I, I would not want to take them on our Jags entry.
56:17The Jags have a really hard schedule, but something you have to think about.
56:21And this is, I w I mean, I'm sure some of the mega minds who were in hundreds of thousands of survivor
56:28entries have modeled this, but something you, you, I think should be thinking about is what teams are set up to take
56:34advantage of a weird thing happening in their schedule.
56:37So for example, the Steelers made a sweat against Cooper rush, right?
56:40Right. But if the Jags got to play the Texans backup quarterback, they'd be favored by a ton.
56:45They would be, they would be like, when, when you're up against an injury ravaged team, does that, does that help you?
56:52Like, are you such a good team? You'd be favored by 10 and a half against the team that ran into cluster injuries or whatever.
56:59Yeah. I'm just looking at like the odds ahead of time and you know, you're making a good point.
57:05Like, obviously if you have a portfolio, you need to be approaching this.
57:08Like, how does this specific team play with this pick that I made in week one?
57:13So talking about our Jets entry, I think that'd be a good spot for the Niners because, you know, the only other
57:19time you could ever use the Jets would probably be in week seven when they're three point favorites at home against Miami.
57:26Uh, and that's the week that the Niners, uh, have a usable week against the Falcons.
57:30So, uh, yeah, it's just, I just want to make note that keep in mind the type of teams you have going
57:37on, like what picks you're making when allocating for your future.
57:40Um, but yeah, yeah. Guns in my head just to wrap up the 49ers.
57:44Like, yeah, I would, I'm going to play two to three entries out of my 10 entries with you properly.
57:50Uh, unless you feel strongly otherwise, uh, I do have a team that I really want to go heavy on.
57:56I'm not sure how you're going to feel about it, but yeah.
57:59I, so I'm, I'm, I'll just say right now I'm completely with you and I'm in a, so I'm in a pool with a group of other guys.
58:07We bought, I think six entries, some, some amount of entries in the 1000 and, um, slightly different strategy there because of the lack of double picks.
58:15So part of the reason why I think you and I will play a little bit more fast and loose with like, that's why we took the jets.
58:23It's why we took three Raiders was because the double pick weeks are going to be like the chaos of like, once
58:29we get through the second double week pick in the 100, like 70, 70% of the contest is going to be, is going to be done.
58:37Yeah. Probably, probably more. Yeah. So I am with Mr.
58:40Henry Burns, 2555 here. I frankly am tempted to just press the button on the, on the Buccaneers.
58:45What are your thoughts? So I'm, I'm actually kind of on the, on the scale where I'm at least in my personal
58:52stuff, I'm likely going to fade them. Uh, before we talk about any other teams, yeah.
58:56Yeah. But before we talk about any other teams, I just want to say, uh, the bears games, uh, so bears, um,
59:03Vikings jets Packers game in the bucks Browns games, uh, all have concern for like fairly significant rain this week.
59:08So I'm just throwing that out there. Obviously, um, you know, check Sunday morning, you know, check, uh, Kevin Roth, whatever, or,
59:15uh, about, uh, about the rain, about the weather, but I'm just, you know, just throwing that out there before we talk about anything else.
59:22Just have that on the back of your mind.
59:25Um, I just think the bucks are very volatile team.
59:27And I know you have a narrative like, yeah, Baker revenge game.
59:31You know, obviously the Browns are fucking horrible. Deshaun Watson's played awful.
59:34Um, and this might be the best matchup Tampa Bay gets all season.
59:38It's the most, it's the most they're favored by.
59:41And I believe Cody tweeted out, this is the, the last time they will be amongst the top five favorites in a week in the look headlines.
59:49Yeah. I just, this is just like a internal gut takes.
59:52Like, I just don't trust them, uh, as a team.
59:55And I don't think Cleveland was as bad as the Jags as they like are perceiving.
59:59The Jags are very good. Yeah. I just think Jags are like a wagon.
60:03Uh, so I do think Cleveland's just like slightly better than like what the market's perceiving.
60:08Uh, so I just given, you know, the ownership that I think is gonna get steamed up, I think we have them around 30% right now.
60:16I think they're easily to take, uh, the Niners just given the future value.
60:20Um, yeah. Again, I'm not gonna pull fade. We're gonna have some entries on the bugs, but I'm just being a little
60:26bit more skeptical based off, you know, a lot of variance with the weather.
60:30Uh, maybe the market's not accounting for the Browns not being as horrific, uh, as they were against the Jags.
60:36Again, I, this is just me saying, I'm not saying the Browns are good.
60:40I'm just saying that I think the Jags are a wagon.
60:43Um, so yeah, I, I, it's just like a pure gut take.
60:47I don't have like any evidence or facts to tell you like, this is a bad pick.
60:52It's just like internally, I just don't feel very confident or trustworthy about this team, but I don't know.
60:57Maybe you can tell me something that gets me off that.
61:00So here you go. I started with you actually first, first time I opened up the slate, started looking at it.
61:06I said, man, this is just, this isn't, this just a classic spot.
61:10You, you have a narrative, you know, human, the human brain loves the narrative.
61:14And so the narrative that's going to pull up people is the Baker revenge game against the Browns.
61:19He's going to want to run the score up, yada, yada, all that stuff.
61:23So I've gone through like, uh, you know, in poker, there's like levels of thinking.
61:28So I've gone fish brain, which is bucks by a million Baker with the, with the beat down.
61:33And I said, oh, well, you know, the Browns weren't really that bad.
61:37The Buccaneers play more high variance style of football.
61:39There's a lot of evidence. Like Todd Bowles is not going to min max in this game.
61:44He does not do, he does not do the good fourth down stuff.
61:48He does not make the right calls. Like he will cost you expected points with this coaching.
61:53That's level two. Then level three is for me, Deshaun Watson is not, this is going to be his last game as a starting quarterback.
62:00I, I, my guess is that he plays so bad in this game that Shadr starts the home opener.
62:06Cause I think something that's very hard to account for.
62:09And I was talking about this with Jacob yesterday, which is just like, don't you think all of Deshaun Watson's teammates are just sick of them?
62:16They're just like sick of playing with them. They're just, they're like, this sucks, dude.
62:21We just want to play football. And instead we have this guy that no one likes who's getting paid a million dollars.
62:27Who's like the worst quarterback in the NFL. And we might not like Shadr cause he's not our cup of tea, but
62:33like Shadr's teammates seem to really like him. And that is, that's gotta be like such an untenable situation.
62:39Right. This is a thousand percent of ownership thing.
62:41This is Jimmy Haslam's throwing, you know, throwing his cock in the ring saying like, Hey, this is we're, we're paying this dude fucking $56 million.
62:49We are playing him. And again, I do think probably next week is the, has been the plan all along.
62:55You start Deshaun Watson and two tough road games and then, and then start him and start Shadr in the week three opener.
63:01But yeah. Coming into this, I kind of was wanting a full fade, especially just like if there's a risk of like
63:08torrential downpour, you know, that just adds onto the variance that can only help the Browns.
63:12And again, like you're saying, the Bucs do play a very volatile style football.
63:16Baker turns it over again, like four times or however many times he fumbled last week as a team.
63:22Like you start getting a little worried and on top of the revenge narrative and everything, I think their ownership gets pushed up a little bit.
63:30So I'm going to fight you on, you know, going like full in on, on the Bucs this week, just given that.
63:36I will, I will have plenty. I will have plenty of exposure to the Bucs.
63:40Well, I'm not going to fight you that hard.
63:43Cause I think Peter and I in our 1k entry are going to do the Bucs.
63:47And I think it's, it sounds like the last I looked at our accumulative sheet, it sounds like my group that I'm in a bunch of them with.
63:56It sounds like half the guys in the pool only want the Bucs.
63:59They're like, fuck the 49ers. Let's just take the Bucs.
64:02So I'm not going to fight you at all.
64:05But those are only, those are only two teams.
64:07Where are some of your, your other thoughts here?
64:10And a lot of this has to do with, you know, the other option I'm about to talk about.
64:16And so Chargers, Restorators, six point favorites, projected ownership at 9%.
64:19To me, this is probably like the team that gets steamed up from being like, oh, this is such a good like tournament play.
64:26Like there needs to be more of it. But I mean, is the market overreacting?
64:30Like maybe I understand their interior offensive line was bad.
64:33And I understand like the lack of confidence you can have with this team, especially with their outlook in week one.
64:39And given how the Raiders played pretty well, but you know, you also have to account for they played the Dolphins.
64:45And just thinking about like the future value of these teams, right?
64:49You know, maybe the next usable week you get for the Chargers is week 11.
64:53Like they're about to go through such a, such a horrible stretch of games.
64:57I believe like this next six games they have after week two is like the hardest in NFL history.
65:03Um, they go. So the Chargers go, I don't know why the lines are not populating here.
65:07So they go at Buffalo at Seattle versus Denver at Kansas city by at Rams versus Houston at Baltimore.
65:13They will not be favored. Actually, frankly, not only will they not be favored, they won't be less than three point dogs.
65:19Maybe that game against Seattle, maybe that game against Seattle since lock is playing until after, after Thanksgiving against the, against the jets.
65:26That's what I'm saying, man. So like, if you just account for their future value, um, they're obviously six and a half point favorites.
65:33Uh, I know the bucks are, are eight and a half, uh, which is also another awesome spot.
65:38Uh, just thinking about the tea leaves. And I do, you know, thinking ahead, uh, I do think the bucks, you know,
65:45they might be usable in week eight, week 12 against the Panthers week 15 against the saints.
65:50Obviously those are all divisional games that are much harder to win.
65:53Um, but to me, I would rather say the bucks later into the season than use, uh, than use them this week,
65:59just because I like the chargers this much. And I think, you know, you know what Tampa is going to be favored
66:06against Pittsburgh at home would not surprise me if they're favored at Carolina, they will certainly be favored home versus Atlanta.
66:12They could very easily be favored in this week 11 game at Detroit.
66:16I mean, how shitty did Detroit look, uh, defensively, uh, the most, the most reasonable, uh, the most reasonable tough two times.
66:22I, I just, I think that there is a big overreaction.
66:25I, and frankly, I love to do it cause I fucking love to dunk on Justin Herbert.
66:30It's like literally one of the things that gets me up in the morning.
66:34And so it's like so hard for me to be unbiased because I feel like everyone in the world is biased towards
66:41Justin Herbert, but they just will not, there's just no way they will play that bad again against the Raiders.
66:46There's no chance they will play that poorly. I don't care about my exact weight.
66:51I don't care how much I weigh. I care about how good I look and how good I feel.
66:56And that's why I'm so happy. I found HIMSS weight loss by HIMSS now offers access to the FDA approved Wagovi pill and Wagovi pen.
67:03Wagovi is designed to help you lose weight and keep it off.
67:07Plus HIMSS gives you the support you need to actually stick with it.
67:11You connect with a licensed provider who will determine if treatment is right for you.
67:15If prescribed, your medication is delivered right to your door.
67:18No insurance necessary. HIMSS makes hitting your goals seamless by offering access to 24 by 7 messaging with your care team and
67:24in-app lifestyle and nutrition support like recipes, sleep content, and boy, the podfather needs his sleep.
67:29So if you're ready to reach your goals like I am, visit HIMSS.com slash player profile to get a personalized affordable plan that gets you.
67:36That's HIMSS.com slash player profile. HIMSS.com slash player profile.
67:39Weight loss by HIMSS is not available in all 50 states.
67:42Wagovi is a registered trademark of Novo Nordisk AS.
67:45To get started and learn more, including important safety information, Wagovi clinical study information, and restrictions, visit HIMSS.com.
67:50Before this, there's this. As you celebrate the game, take a deeper look at its roots.
67:54The people grow in the grass, batting the lots, welding the goalposts, inspecting every football, the hardworking people that make every Sunday possible.
68:01Carhartt is proud to outfit the crews behind the game.
68:04Visit Carhartt.com slash join the trades to learn more.
68:07Yeah. Yeah. And again, there's six and a half point favorites.
68:10Their future values as, and everyone's piling onto the box, which I perceive as a volatile team.
68:15And you might, you know, again, the weather bros, they're right, like one out of 20 times, but in the off case
68:21is like a torrential downpour and there's more barriers.
68:24The chargers on run the Sims show the same amount of future value as the dolphins and the Carolina Panthers.
68:30They are number 30 in the NFL in future value because of how hard their schedule is.
68:34Exactly, man. So just taking that for account, you know, people feel really off of them because they got burned by them last week.
68:41They're perceiving that, you know, this team's not good, but again, this is a one week sample and there's six and a
68:48point, six and a half point favorites. And the future values, like to me, the chargers seem like the slam dunk pick.
68:54We have them at 9% ownership right now. I imagine that goes up a little bit.
68:59But to me, it's not so much that I hate the bucks this week, more so that I just love the chargers from a game theory perspective.
69:07I think you're, I think you're right. And, and look, you know, it could totally, this could totally be one of those
69:13where like we are game theory broing it and the LOL, no way the Buccaneers lose guy is right.
69:19Like I could, I could absolutely, I could absolutely see that.
69:22Um, I would say, I don't want to do any more than four chargers probably.
69:26Cause I, I do think, I do think the chargers are the interior offensive line really bad.
69:31We knew it was going to be bad when they started to get injuries.
69:35And if your interior offensive line is bad and you plan on being a running team, um, that is an issue, particularly
69:41with like Hampton's ability as a runner is like North South.
69:45It's all, you can't get him, you cannot, you cannot get that guy moving East, West.
69:49Like if you want to do East, West, you got to bring Keaton in, which is why I think Keaton played a
69:56ton last week, more than I thought as a big Keaton drafter, he actually played more than I thought he would in, in week one.
70:03Um, so I think I'm, I'm hip with that.
70:05I also wanted to talk through using, I wondered if you were interested at all in using, um, one of the, uh, Carolina Panthers against the Falcons.
70:13That's my, that's my call for the off the board one.
70:16This, I actually think they are dogs in this game, but it's another chance to line them up against Cooper rush.
70:23And again, a very, very low future value team, the Carolina Panthers after this game, I guess the issue is, is they get the Browns next week.
70:30And then of course, obviously they get to play the Atlanta Falcons later, later in the year.
70:35Yeah. So let's just think about, again, I personally am in the boat that they've been planning to start Shadir this entire
70:42time week three in their home opener. So I imagine the line will look at a slightly different if Watson's not starting.
70:48So maybe it's like closer to a pick them in week three.
70:52Uh, again, I'm just playing devil's advocate. I'm thinking like throughout all the scenarios here, uh, I am good using the Panthers
70:58as like our, our jets of the week. I like talking about like some of these under own plays underdogs.
71:04Uh, well, I know they're not underdogs this week, but underdogs in terms of like the mentality.
71:09I mean, they'll be, they'll be what they'll be like legit 1% owned.
71:12I think. Um, I would be good at advocating like for two, two entries on, on our, on Panthers.
71:18Uh, again, I don't know how we're going to distribute them, uh, given like our Jags and Jax picks and whatnot, but I think Panthers are a spot.
71:26I'm comfortable going to this week. And again, their future value is not, uh, fantastic.
71:30Like when would be the next time you could use them?
71:34Like maybe, um, again, next week, obviously, but maybe the line changes.
71:37You could, you could potentially use them. New Orleans week 14, but that's the home to new Orleans.
71:42Maybe Rattler is, is starting there. Like maybe week 18 against the Falcons.
71:46But you know, this contest might not have been live then.
71:49Oh, did you, uh, someone, someone ran a sim yesterday.
71:52I don't know if you saw this, but someone on Twitter ran a sim of how likelihood that a contest gets to
71:59week 18 and all of them were above 80% or all of them were above 70% except for the splash 100.
72:05So the thousand, the big circa, the grandissimo, like all that, they were all over 70%.
72:09But the, the 100 was 29% to get to week 18.
72:12Yeah. Uh, that's very interesting. That makes sense with like the fucking colossal amount of double.
72:17The, the, the crazy guys. Like I think people have, have doing this, have not started to think about week three.
72:23Like we're under 50% of the entries. They're gone.
72:26They're gone. They're, they're going to be eliminated, dude.
72:28They're, they're going to be gone. Gun in my head.
72:31I think the contest is over, uh, week 13.
72:34Like you, you make no picks for week 13.
72:37Uh, like the contest. So the week it's over week 12.
72:40Uh, or no, I'll say week 14. Uh, I think, I think week 14, because then you've got through, uh, cause what
72:46week 12 is week 12, the Thanksgiving one. I like, I like when Thanksgiving, I believe the, I believe the circa one does Thanksgiving as its own.
72:54It is. It is. Which I, which I always love.
72:57Um, I, I think no, I think in my mind, LOL, no shot.
73:01It's to week 16. Not like straight up. Like it's just too hard, dude.
73:05It's way too hard. I agree. So if you are pointing the premise that like, Hey, Watson is so fucking bad that
73:11they have to start to do next week. And the line is a little closer to like, you know, instead of minus
73:17two and a half, it's like minus one or it's like pick them.
73:21Uh, I do like burning Carolina this week. Uh, we just have to make note of it, given that next week is a double pick week.
73:29So, uh, I do like Carolina has like a little sneaky, I guess not sneaky, but like our, as our sleeper pick,
73:35uh, for this week on top of, you know, if we can build our portfolio, you know, like have 20% Carolina, 40%
73:41chargers, and then like 20% bucks and niners. Honestly, honestly, dude, I think sitting here talking with you, I think for this
73:48contest, I don't think for the big contest. So I don't think for the one K and I don't think for circa,
73:54I would be doing this, but the way this contest works, just knowing there's no shot in week six or week nine, I'm taking the chargers.
74:02I, the chargers might even have a buy on one of those, um, uh, seven by, I believe they play, they play
74:08at Kansas city and then they're home to Houston in week nine.
74:12I mean, is there any scenario where you're taking the chargers home to Texans with their offensive line?
74:17No, it would have to be the only situation I'd use them.
74:20If there's like a massacre of injuries, I do want to say like the EPA splits with lad on and off the field for the chargers.
74:28There's so it's quite drastic. So if you're telling yourself like, Hey, their run game can't get going, they don't have lad.
74:34And now they're depending on huge a and you know, fucking Charlie Kolar, you know, that's where I'm a little bit more
74:41skeptical, but again, the field notices this and that's why they're so low on.
74:45Uh, I just, I really don't believe we're going to have a chance to use the chargers until week 11.
74:50Um, so it's kind of just like, obviously we're going to have to watch the injury new see like if lab plays or not.
74:57Cause that to me is a pretty significant difference.
75:00Obviously I don't think that's going to move the line at all.
75:03Um, but to me, uh, you know, just like personally, I would feel a lot better if lad was playing.
75:09Uh, so yeah, let's say lad is playing. He's good to go.
75:13No, no snap count or anything. I mean, how much would you want to allocate to the chargers?
75:18I would say in, in this contest, I would actually be comfortable doing half our entries.
75:23Like how we treated the Jags last week. I think we do, I think optimal distribution in the 100 would be like
75:29probably one Panthers, three bucks, one Niners, five chargers, something like that.
75:32I like that. Uh, I do want to bring up a couple more, uh, Eagles at tight ends.
75:38They're seven point favorites, uh, on the road. Uh, they don't have, I don't know.
75:42I want to ask you this before I say anything else.
75:45Like, do you think that he sucked? I do not think they, I do not think they suck.
75:50No, I think, I think people offensively because I think people are so bad at just evaluating the Eagles.
75:56Like, you know, there's always this like thought like, oh man, Jalen hurts dude.
76:00He can't throw and you like, look at what the bad seasons for jail and hurts have been.
76:05And it's been like, just like easily making the playoffs, like easily making the playoffs, like not even having to win in
76:12week 18 to, uh, to make the playoffs. Like, I just think, I just think they, and I can certainly see.
76:18So you wouldn't want to take them against the bears.
76:21You wouldn't want to take them against the Rams.
76:23I, you definitely don't think want to take them at Jacksonville, but Carolina at home.
76:28Yes. Versus Washington versus Dallas at home. I think you, I mean, Hey, sad to say, I think you would be fine taking them.
76:34They're at Washington. I think you're fine taking them there home to the giants.
76:39I think you're fine taking them there home to the Steelers.
76:42They'll be favored by four and a half in, in that game.
76:45I, I, I think they have, I probably would be higher on their future utility than the market.
76:50The thing is though, is they, you would not want to take them in a double pick week three because they're, they're, they're going to lose.
76:58They're going to lose that game. However, home to the Panthers week six, that is also a double pick week.
77:04And they would be a very viable selection. Yeah.
77:06They'd be chalked there. You have week eight at Washington, obviously divisional game tough week nine against the giants.
77:12Week 13 against Arizona week 14 against the Colts, which is, we'll see how that plays out week 18 against the giants.
77:18Um, yeah, I just planning this out in my head.
77:21I would try to save the Eagles for week six.
77:24Uh, the more I talk about this and the more that I'm looking at like the future value and the schedules and
77:30everything, it just making me feel more and more onto the chargers, uh, which is very scary, especially if Vlad doesn't play.
77:37But, um, yeah, obviously we're going to talk about this a little bit more as we, as we go through throughout the weekend.
77:43But yeah, this is, this could be interesting. Uh, but I do think we have like a nice basis of how we want to attack our portfolio.
77:51Yeah. Yeah. I think that was, uh, I, I trying to see if there's anyone else worth, I, Panthers were kind of my off the wall call.
77:59Um, that's, that's really about, that's really, that's really about it.
78:02Like, I, I'm not really interested in, in, I mean, Seahawks maybe just to like total, total, like no one's taking them,
78:09but they, when their, their future value is going to be so much better when Darnold comes back.
78:14Um, yeah, I, I don't see, I don't see anything else.
78:17You be divisional on the road. Just there's so many better spots.
78:21Uh, week 10 against the, against the Raiders is one that sticks out to me.
78:25Um, and I was thinking, you know, if you wanted to just grab a free win, the Baltimore Ravens, but dude, the
78:31Ravens, the Ravens get to play Dallas, Tennessee, the, the Falcons, the Browns, they get to play and then they get to close.
78:38They get Carolina again. Then they closed the season.
78:41Buccaneers, Steelers, Browns, Bengals, Steelers, they're, they might win 15 games looking at, looking at the Ravens schedule.
78:46This is unreal. I would say if you're playing survivor, map it out that you are not even considering the Ravens until week six, like you're straight up.
78:54They, they don't even enter your lexicon until week six because their, um, their future equity is just too large.
79:00Yeah. There's a chance like this is just straight up the best team in the NFL.
79:04Uh, I do not want to burn any of these, any of those Raven picks or them the season.
79:10Obviously it feels like a free win against the same speed, nine point favorites, eight and a half point favorites.
79:16Um, yeah, again, it's a free win, but sort of the Niners and I would take the Ravens over the Niners for future value wise.
79:23So, um, I, I also wouldn't consider the chiefs.
79:26The chiefs have almost as many, they have as many free wins.
79:29They get to play the dolphins. They get to play the Raiders, frankly, free win against the chargers week six.
79:35They get to play the jets. They get to play the Falcons.
79:38They get to play the Cardinals. Then they close the season.
79:41Actually, they closed the season a little bit harder.
79:44So I would say, you know, you start thinking about week 11, you start.
79:48Yeah. Uh, that Arizona game, I would say circle that Arizona game for the, um, week 10, week 11, because again, obviously
79:55we don't think this is going to last the entire season.
79:58So when I'm thinking about week 18, that's not even, I'm just assuming it's over before then.
80:03So I definitely want to hold onto the chiefs.
80:05I don't, yeah, no desire to play them. I know that the Baltimore doesn't have to say, but, uh, one, I don't
80:12think that's confirmed to, you know, there to be plenty fine.
80:15What I'd say. So, um, yeah, I think we're going to kind of like put a cap on the, on the survivor recap.
80:21I think we're personally going to go like 50% chargers in our entries, which feels really bad.
80:26And that probably might change if Vlad is out, just given their EPA splits with him.
80:31I don't, I don't think it will. Part of the reason why we ended up with no chargers last week was because
80:37it was such like, if, if the chargers were not chalk last week, I would have been more down to take it, but, but chargers chargers as chalk.
80:46Has that ever worked for anyone ever? It's never worked in any scenario, DFS, whatever.
80:50Like anytime everyone has decided the chargers are all in, they'd never do well.
80:54They're like the most cursed franchise. Um, if the chargers don't win, if the chargers don't win this week, everyone's getting fired.
81:00They're, they're fucked. Dude, they could legitimately, if they lose this week, they can legitimately be all in seven to start the season.
81:07They could be, they could, if so, if they lose this week, they're for sure going to lose to the bills.
81:13They could easily lose to the Seahawks. They could easily lose home to Denver.
81:17They could easily lose at Kansas city. There could easily lose to the Rams.
81:21They could easily lose to the Texans. They could easily lose to the Rams.
81:25They, there are worlds where the chargers do not get their first win until week 11.
81:30Obviously, obviously that's an insane parlay to hit and like is not the modal outcome, but it, they they'll be dogs in
81:36all those games, except for the Seahawks one. They won't be dogs against the Seahawks.
81:41They need a win this week. And I think they all know that, which kind of makes me think that Ladsden to
81:47push to play as someone with a fucked and allowed.
81:50I don't, I don't love that, but yeah, man, to me, the chargers seem like the best pick of the week right now in time.
81:57So I think, I think I'm with you, man.
82:00I wasn't, I wasn't prepared to be there, but I, I do think, I do think I'm probably, I do think I'm
82:06probably with you, which is not a spot that I thought that I was going to be in, but you know, you
82:12look at the, you look at the consensus ownership, 5% on the chargers, 9%, you know, somewhere kind of in this range.
82:19I think the chargers will be a lot heavier.
82:21I imagine Cody and Sky are to talk them up on the ETR show today.
82:26So I'm sure that will raise a little bit, but I would be shocked if it's more than like 12%, just given the options we have this week.
82:34And then, you know, we're also playing the angle, like on the off chance, I like the bucks somehow lose because you
82:40know, whether it's rain or the Browns aren't as horrible as we anticipate them being, uh, or like the dolphins somehow make an upset.
82:47We are sitting so, so, so pretty the rest of the season.
82:51So I'm scared to say this, but I will have it on record.
82:55I'm okay. I mean, half of our portfolio on the fucking chargers.
82:58Famous, famous last words. Yeah. All right, guys. Well, you can, uh, you can, uh, if you're watching this on replay, you
83:04guys can comment down below, tell us who you are taking in survivor.
83:08Maybe, maybe you will, um, maybe you'll be able to talk some sense into us so we don't nuke, uh, 500 American dollars on the Los Angeles chargers.
83:16Uh, make sure to check out our sponsors live line IQ promo code Davis will get you a $40.
83:22I think there's a, you get a free week, free month.
83:25Maybe I don't remember which one of you sign up with the code as well.
83:29Uh, you can check out all of the Mike nuggets stuff over on the Mike nuggets terminal and, uh, we'll be back with you guys next week.
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