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Footballguys fantasy football takes on Patrick Mahomes
Every source-backed article insight STACKED has extracted from Footballguys about Patrick Mahomes.
53
Insights
29
Positive
11
Negative
Insight ledger
All Footballguys insights about Patrick Mahomes
PositiveProjectionNov 2, 2026
Listed as a Three Star quarterback selection for Week 9 DFS based on Vegas odds analysis and game scripting derived from opening NFL odds.NegativeMatchupOct 30, 2026
Patrick Mahomes II is featured in the Chiefs-Broncos matchup, which is expected to be a low-scoring game where neither quarterback has been a reliable option in recent weeks.NegativeProjectionOct 27, 2026
Patrick Mahomes II fell two spots to QB9 in Dave Kluge's rest-of-season rankings, indicating a negative adjustment in his fantasy outlook.PositiveProjectionOct 25, 2026
Despite modest volume (32 attempts per game) and limited rushing (2 per game excluding kneel-downs), Mahomes has the talent and ability to achieve beyond expectations and matchups. The source expects Mahomes to throw for 275+ yards and multiple touchdowns in a potential 27-23 semi-shootout against Seattle, making him a high-clip play in tournament lineups despite the tough Seattle defense (157 yards allowed per game, 5.2 per throw) and missing top wideout and both starting tackles.NegativeValueOct 20, 2026
Patrick Mahomes II was acquired in a dynasty trade where Jalen Hurts and a 2027 1st-round pick were exchanged for Mahomes, representing a selling opportunity for Hurts. Mahomes is identified as offering shelter and safety at quarterback compared to the risk profile of Hurts.NegativeProjectionOct 16, 2026
The source predicts that Patrick Mahomes II will generate fewer fantasy points than Kirk Cousins in Week 6, as part of a 'crazy prediction' for the week.NegativeRoleOct 15, 2026
Song notes that Tyreek Hill paired with Patrick Mahomes II again would have immediate WR3/flex potential in the Chiefs offense, highlighting the chemistry between quarterback and receiver.NegativeProjectionOct 13, 2026
Mahomes fell one spot to QB6 in the rest-of-season rankings.PositiveProjectionOct 9, 2026
Among only five quarterbacks to average above 20 points per game from Years 2 through 8 (Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson average 22 ppg; Jalen Hurts, Aaron Rodgers, and Andrew Luck are the others). One of only six first-round quarterbacks more efficient than Caleb Williams in their sophomore season by era-adjusted ANY/A.PositiveProjectionOct 6, 2026
Patrick Mahomes II is ranked QB5 in rest-of-season fantasy football rankings, up 2 spots from the previous week's rankings.PositiveUsageOct 5, 2026
Mahomes has rediscovered his deep ball this season, which supports Tyreek Hill's upside upon his return from injury given their undeniable chemistry.PositiveMatchupOct 1, 2026
Mahomes had little trouble finding holes on Indianapolis's pass defense, throwing for 382 yards with three touchdowns; the Colts allowed the second-most yards in NFL history through the first three weeks. Mahomes and Travis Kelce won constantly in the intermediate range against the Colts' vulnerable scheme.PositiveMatchupOct 1, 2026
Patrick Mahomes II is tiered as HIGH CEILING QB1 for Week 4 at Las Vegas, indicating strong upside potential in this road matchup.PositiveProjectionSep 30, 2026
Patrick Mahomes II posted 422 rushing yards in 2025, contributing to his top-tier QB finish. The source identifies him among quarterbacks hitting three or four benchmark categories (4,000 passing yards, 400 rushing yards, 25 passing TDs, 3+ rushing TDs) through three weeks of 2026, positioning him for sustained Top 10 fantasy success.NegativeRoleSep 30, 2026
Patrick Mahomes II was referenced in the context of star player preferential treatment in the NFL, with the source noting that elite players receive favorable officiating treatment across all sports.PositiveProjectionSep 29, 2026
Mahomes is delivering the production and consistency fantasy managers should prefer. He's ranked QB7 in rest-of-season rankings and has moved up two spots from last week.PositiveMatchupSep 29, 2026
Patrick Mahomes II is an obvious play in Week 4 against Las Vegas; Kansas City heads to Las Vegas with a 26-point implied total in a game carrying a 47.5-point over/under, and the Chiefs are favored by 4.5 points, which is more appealing than the double-digit spreads attached to other high-powered offenses this week.PositiveValueSep 26, 2026
Patrick Mahomes II at $6,200 is at least $500 too cheap in the upper mid-range for Week 3 DraftKings GPP; the source identifies him as a value play where quarterback spending will naturally gravitate due to salary relief needed to fit expensive running backs and top wide receivers.NegativeValueSep 26, 2026
Mahomes is rostered at 7.7 percent but should be faded; Kansas City's elevated implied total runs mostly through the running game in the projection, and a shootout is unlikely against the Dolphins.NegativeValueSep 26, 2026
Patrick Mahomes II is at 7.7 percent rostered and is a little over-rostered relative to optimal lineups. Dan Hindery would go under the field on Mahomes since Kansas City's elevated implied total runs mostly through the running game in his projection, and a shootout is unlikely again.PositiveProjectionSep 26, 2026
Patrick Mahomes II needs one passing touchdown to move into the Top 20 all-time. He currently sits tied with Joe Flacco and is one TD away from passing Vinny Testaverde (275) and Joe Montana (273). Mahomes holds every Chiefs franchise record.PositiveProjectionSep 25, 2026
Patrick Mahomes II's magic has returned, and the source predicts the Chiefs will defeat the Dolphins in Week 3 as favorites by 10 points, though the source notes the advantage seems short. Mahomes is expected to lead Kansas City to victory.PositiveProjectionSep 24, 2026
Mahomes looks like himself—confident, in rhythm, and clutch—and is clearly fully recovered from his torn ACL injury. The Chiefs haven't fielded a top-10 offense since 2022, but the addition of Ken Walker II has brought balance and unpredictability that the offense sorely needed. Mahomes' early 2026 success hasn't been built on zeroing in on one game-breaking receiver; he's targeting open receivers and dominating situational football.PositiveProjectionSep 23, 2026
Mahomes threw 47 times for 382 yards and three touchdowns in last week's overtime win over the Colts. He is in the best offensive spot on the slate with Kansas City at 29.0 implied total as an 11.5-point road favorite in Miami. He ranks third by optimal share at 7.2 percent with a $6,200 DraftKings salary.PositiveProjectionSep 22, 2026
Mahomes has looked like his pre-injury self in consecutive games, ranking QB9 (+3) in rest-of-season rankings. The source identifies this as one of the early positive trends that can't be ignored.PositiveMatchupSep 22, 2026
Patrick Mahomes II has an excellent matchup against Miami, which has allowed the seventh-most QB fantasy points. Kansas City carries a 28-point implied total, and the Chiefs are favored by roughly 10.5 points.PositiveProjectionSep 22, 2026
Named as a Three Star quarterback for Week 3 DFS, indicating strong game script appeal based on Vegas odds analysis for the Chiefs game.PositiveProjectionSep 20, 2026
Mahomes' 2025 debut was far from perfect but showed his run-and-gun mentality remains intact; he threw aggressively while the game was in doubt and ran plenty, including a red-zone touchdown. Against the leaky Colts defense, 300-yard averages may be past, but that may be the baseline expectation.NegativeMatchupSep 18, 2026
Mahomes of Kansas City scored 25.7 fantasy points against Denver in Week 1, providing a recent benchmark for Trevor Lawrence's Week 2 matchup against the Broncos.PositiveMatchupSep 17, 2026
Patrick Mahomes II is placed in the HIGH FLOOR QB2/SUPERFLEX/STREAMER tier for Week 2 against Indianapolis, indicating reliable floor as a streamer option.PositiveProjectionSep 16, 2026
Patrick Mahomes II's return to health in Week 1 significantly improves the league's overall quality and entertainment value, suggesting his presence elevates competitive balance and game quality.PositiveProjectionSep 16, 2026
After concerns about his recovery from an ACL tear, Mahomes demonstrated he's back to form in Week 1: he extended plays, welcomed contact, and played without mental lapses. The source confirms Mahomes is back to being a fantasy QB1.PositiveProjectionSep 15, 2026
Mahomes rose +4 in QB rankings after Week 1 allayed concerns about his return from ACL injury. He extended plays, welcomed contact, and played without mental lapses. Dave Kluge confirms Mahomes is back to being a fantasy QB1.NegativeProjectionSep 13, 2026
Mahomes is making his debut post-ACL tear in a tough matchup against a Broncos defense that ranked eighth in EPA/Play Allowed, second in Success Rate, and 10th in Dropback EPA Allowed. While he ranked fifth in passing yards per game (256.2), seventh in passing touchdowns per game (1.6), and tenth in EPA/Play last season, his rushing upside projects to be capped coming back from injury despite career highs in rushing yards (422) and rushing touchdowns (5) last season.NegativeRoleSep 12, 2026
QB will start for Chiefs in Monday Night Football vs. Denver; undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson will start at LT with Josh Simmons ruled out.NegativeMatchupSep 11, 2026
Patrick Mahomes II is coming back from a knee injury with limited mobility heading into Week 1 against Denver. The Guru expects the Chiefs to employ max protection with extra blockers, a short passing game that gets the ball out quickly, and quick throwaways to limit hits on Mahomes, which will reduce sack opportunities for opposing edge rushers.NegativeProjectionSep 10, 2026
Mahomes is nine months removed from reconstructive knee surgery, his left tackle is hurt, and his only wide receiver who can consistently beat man coverage is a fifth-round rookie. The Broncos have been stingy to Mahomes even in good times, and these are not good times for the Chiefs offense, which will be putting a lot on Ken Walker III's shoulders. Mahomes' value is more reputation than recent track record.NegativeBustSep 6, 2026
Patrick Mahomes II received 5 votes from industry experts as the most overrated quarterback in drafts. Voters included Nic Bodiford, Jamey Eisenberg, Luke Sawhook, Dan Fornek, and Rich Hribar.NegativeValueSep 5, 2026
Patrick Mahomes is a premium starter with a Week 5 bye; his backup J. Fields costs $7 to roster as injury insurance in contest play.NegativeProjectionSep 5, 2026
Patrick Mahomes projects for 363.0 fantasy points with a contest cap price of $17, yielding an ROI of 21.4 FPs/$ and ranking 14th in quarterback ROI as of September 2nd projections.NegativeValueSep 4, 2026
Patrick Mahomes II rose one positional rank from QB12 to QB11 but his ADP declined 3.9 points from 93.8 to 97.7 between April and August, showing slight market pullback despite the rank improvement.NegativeInjuryAug 29, 2026
Patrick Mahomes II is ranked QB15/114 overall but the source avoids him due to being only nine months removed from reconstructive knee surgery, raising durability and performance concerns.NegativeValueAug 28, 2026
Bloom advises to avoid Patrick Mahomes II, indicating significant concern about his draft value and production outlook.NegativeProjectionAug 26, 2026
Patrick Mahomes II is falling outside the Top 12 QB range in drafts, reflecting concerns about his recovery from a significant 2025 injury and potential loss of mobility, though his arm strength remains unchanged. The Chiefs have lacked a Top 10 offense in the past three seasons, and the addition of Ken Walker III suggests they plan to run more, reducing Mahomes' passing volume and fantasy upside.PositiveValueAug 25, 2026
Bob Harris notes that Patrick Mahomes II is available after Jaxson Dart comes off the board, making him a better value pick than Dart at QB11 ADP.NegativeValueAug 25, 2026
Chad Parsons includes Patrick Mahomes II in a list of QBs likely available late in drafts for those who wait at the position, describing the situation as a fish-in-the-barrel opportunity; Mahomes is positioned as a viable late-round target alongside other options.PositiveInjuryAug 18, 2026
Eight months removed from serious knee surgery, Mahomes looks like himself per The Athletic's Jesse Newell; while some physical limitations may persist, he has cleared a significant mental hurdle and no longer appears to think about his knee or brace during competitive moments. Fully cleared for team practice in August.PositiveValueAug 12, 2026
Patrick Mahomes II is ranked QB14 in ADP, just after Jaxson Dart (QB11). The source argues that Mahomes offers comparable production to Dart at a better or similar price point, making him a preferable target in drafts.PositiveInjuryAug 2, 2026
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes II has been cleared for full practice activities after a knee injury cut his 2025 campaign short, signaling his return for the 2026 season.NegativeProjectionJul 31, 2026
Patrick Mahomes II ranks fourth over the last four years in 20-point fantasy games with 26, behind Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts.PositiveValueJul 30, 2026
JJ Zachariason prefers Stafford in this spot, but if he's gone, he'll bank on Mahomes' ceiling.PositiveValueJul 30, 2026
Zachariason prefers Stafford in the middle-round QB spot, but if Stafford is gone, he'll bank on Mahomes' ceiling as a strong alternative.NegativeRoleJul 26, 2026
Mahomes is returning from a torn ACL, and the Chiefs signed Ken Walker III to add explosiveness to the offense and take pressure off the quarterback.