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Angles and Upside Week 2

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

3 hr 10 min

Duration

Estimated from transcript

Sep 19, 2026

Published

Sat, September 19, 2026

23

Player insights

23

Players mentioned

Topics

Aaron JonesBijan RobinsonBucky IrvingCaleb WilliamsD.J. MooreD'Andre SwiftDenzel BostonDeshaun WatsonDrake LondonDylan SampsonHarold FanninIsaiah LikelyJalen McMillanJerry Jeudy

Player analysis

Player insights

23

Aaron Jones

PositiveValue32:59

Aaron Jones is highlighted as a cheap DFS option in a high-scoring game environment, making him an attractive target for gamers looking to capitalize on the volatility of his matchup.

Bijan Robinson

NegativeUsage9:01

Bijan Robinson is used as a historical benchmark for receiving usage in a Zack Robinson-led offense, noting his significant target volume spike last season as a reference for the coaching staff's tendencies.

Bucky Irving

PositiveUsage8:32

Bucky Irving is a high-upside asset, earning more playing time than Kenneth Gainwell in Week 1 with a 26% target share, 2.29 YPRR, and 33% TPRR. Despite a 61% snap share, his efficiency (63% EPA success rate, 13 rush yards over expected) and motion-based usage suggest he is the primary back in an offense that prioritizes throwing to the position. The source expects this usage split to hold.

Caleb Williams

NegativeUsage1:49

Caleb Williams is struggling with efficiency, posting a 1.1% touchdown rate and a sack rate exceeding 7% when not blitzed. In Week 1, he played a style opposite to Jordan Love, featuring a 38% first-read throw rate and a 3.47-second time-to-throw, holding the ball over a second longer per dropback. While he showed growth with an 11% completion percentage over expected, his historical inefficiency against the Vikings makes his upcoming matchup a volatility risk.

D.J. Moore

NegativeInjury3:53

DJ Moore suffered an injury early in the game, forcing the team to revert to previous offensive patterns.

D'Andre Swift

NegativeMatchup62:34

Expectations for D'Andre Swift are tempered for this matchup against the Vikings; he failed to finish as a top-24 running back in either of his two games against them last year, where Brian Flores' defensive scheme consistently forced running backs into difficult blocking assignments.

Denzel Boston

PositiveUsage18:59

Denzel Boston is viewed as a boom-bust asset who may benefit from the current offensive environment, having secured a 19% target share in the recent game, matching Jerry Jeudy and Casey Conpsion.

Deshaun Watson

NegativeBust17:35

Deshaun Watson is a high-risk fantasy option and a 'sack eating machine' with a 19% sack rate, 10% turnover-worthy throw rate, and a 3.43-second time to throw. The source notes he is playing poorly, forcing deep passes, and struggling to adapt to the modern NFL, making him a liability for the Browns' offense.

Drake London

NegativeUsage15:52

Drake London's target share is used as a reference point for the high volume required for a player to succeed in a non-consolidated passing offense.

Dylan Sampson

NegativeInjury24:24

Dylan Sampson's injury did not result in the expected increase in opportunity for other backfield members like Quinshon Judkins, as his role was immediately filled by Rocket Sanders.

Harold Fannin

NegativeRole20:06

Harold Fannon's fantasy outlook is poor while Deshaun Watson is under center, as Watson frequently ignores underneath routes that would typically be Fannon's first read. Fannon's aDOT dropped to 3.3 last week, and the source expresses concern about his fit in this specific offense.

Isaiah Likely

PositiveRole0:46

Isaiah Likely is operating in a surprisingly strong and "pretty sick" role, exceeding pre-season expectations for his usage.

Jalen McMillan

PositiveDepth Chart13:50

The source expects Jalen McMillan's return to the lineup to provide necessary help to the Buccaneers' passing offense.

Jerry Jeudy

PositiveRole21:06

Jerry Jeudy recorded a 19% target share in Week 1, identical to teammates Casey Conpsion and Denzel Boston, but the source is highly critical of his performance, stating he 'stinks' and specifically noting his poor blocking ability. The source anticipates his playing time will decrease as other receivers in the offense become more comfortable.

Josh Allen

NegativeProjection4:16

Josh Allen is a potential "supernova" candidate; while expensive, his performance makes him a scary player to fade.

Justin Jefferson

PositiveUsage40:20

Justin Jefferson has a strong floor with Carson Wentz, historically posting a 32% target share and 2.6 yards per route run across six games; the source notes he is effectively a WR5 on an expected points basis when paired with Wentz.

Kalif Raymond

PositiveUsage34:16

Khalif Raymond saw significant usage with an 18% first-read target rate and a 41% targets per route run rate, indicating he was a primary target for Caleb Williams when moving off his first read.

Kenneth Gainwell

NegativeUsage13:14

Kenneth Gainwell is relegated to an ancillary receiver role in the backfield; he was out-touched 15 to 6 by Bucky Irving and ran fewer routes than the primary back in Week 1.

Luke Musgrave

NegativeUsage34:45

Luke Musgrave saw a 6% first-read target rate in Week 1, indicating he was not a primary focus in the passing game despite playing the full game.

Luther Burden

NegativeValue1:40

Luther Burden is considered a fine prospect, though the Bears' offense may not be as hyper-concentrated as drafters hoped when selecting him in the fourth round, due to Caleb Williams' play-creation style rather than a design-heavy approach.

Quinshon Judkins

NegativeUsage24:33

Despite a 65% snap share, Quinshon Judkins is viewed as a touchdown-or-bust low-end RB2 or high-end RB3. His role is limited by a poor offensive environment and the emergence of Rocket Sanders, who matched his 42% route participation.

Sean Tucker

NegativeDepth Chart13:04

Sean Tucker has been removed from fantasy backfield assessments as he is not being treated as a relevant part of the Buccaneers' rotation.

Zay Flowers

NegativeUsage23:39

Zay Flowers is used as a stylistic comparison for a versatile receiver profile, highlighting his ability to function as both a slot receiver and a downfield threat in a combo package.

Full transcript

Episode Transcript

1,983

0:00Welcome to the Legendary Upside podcast and YouTube channel. My name is Pat Crane. You can follow my content at legendary upside.com. With me today,

0:07Rich Reebar, Sharp Football Analysis.

0:10Reeves, how's it going?

0:11>> It's going good, man. We we've got one week in the books and week one's always kind of like that reveal like did it

0:17confirm our priors? Are we changing our priors? If so, how much? It's always kind of fun to that we we're actually

0:23got the ball rolling now.

0:25>> For sure. And there were some prior changing stuff. There's also some like not prior changing stuff that, you know, didn't go my way, but I'm still like,

0:32you know, it's fine.

0:33>> Um, it's a long season, right? So, there's some there's some things it'll be kind of interesting to dig into.

0:39>> Uh, we won't have the the Giants Rams in this one, but like I just wrote up that game and I was like, okay, like Isaiah

0:47likely is in like a pretty sick role.

0:49Like, didn't think that was didn't think he'd be in such an awesome role. So, there's some stuff like that. There's also some stuff that was like matchup

0:56based like we can we'll get to the Bears here shortly, but like Carlson Lelin and Luther Burden I had as the cover boy of

1:03the walkthrough last week. Didn't draft a ton of the Bears. I did draft some Burden. Didn't draft much Lovelin.

1:09Didn't draft much Caleb, but they were in a sweet spot last week. They're not in a sweet spot this week. We'll get to

1:15it. We'll see that. To me, it's like those the the fun thing about week two is >> you get to see how much of of last week

1:22was around some of the matchups >> and how much of it was around some of these teams becoming wagons and actually

1:28just dominating whoever was in front of them. Probably the biggest one for me last week, and it's easy to say this now

1:35because we we got to watch them again, but the Bills, you're like, "All right, like they just did that against the

1:40Texans. I assumed that they would have another big game against the Lions, which they which they obviously did.

1:47That one feels like Joe Brady has has definitely brought a new uh a new way of doing things, you know, in Buffalo that

1:57that seems refreshing and more aggressive and that should play pay dividends for a while. But yeah, some of the some of the spots where guys were

2:06like going in hard matchups and actually still delivered were were the ones that kind of shifted what I was thinking more

2:12than some of the spots that we identified before as being like really fertile matchups and then those hitting.

2:17>> Yeah, 100%. Yeah, that and if the Bills defense is going to suck too, like man, it's going to be so fun,

2:23>> right?

2:24>> They thought they're like the fourth team to ever start two and 0 like giving up 30 points in each game.

2:29>> Uh and I know >> they're like college games right now.

2:32That's nuts.

2:33>> Yeah, incredible. I mean, and it's crazy. You know, DJ Morg gets hurt early in that game and they're just basically

2:37back to trotting out what they had last year, but with like a not like a new coat of paint like with Joe Brady.

2:43>> It's like Kian Coleman and Josh Palmer bullish.

2:45>> I was like watching I was like, is Kian Coleman okay now? Like is Kian Coleman?

2:49>> He kind of looks okay.

2:50>> Yeah. Yeah. Like so yeah, it's going to be bonanza. I was I remember I was talking to JJ about it on a show we did

2:56and I was like, dude, I've never been more scared not to take Josh Allen. Like I very I very rarely ever take the QB1,

3:03but I was like the setup this year is like particularly scary. I was like I feel like they're going to throw more

3:08and their schedule's a lot harder. I was like I'm I feel like this could be like a supernova Josh Allen season and two

3:14weeks in I'm very upset that I have a lot of Josh Allen.

3:18>> Yeah, I I didn't take really any Josh Allen because he was just so much more expensive than the rest of the

3:21quarterbacks. And I >> The gap was crazy.

3:23>> The gap and it's still kind of crazy like he's he if he does this like it was a great pick. Is he going to do this all

3:29year? like maybe like it seems in the it seems possible but it also is kind of like because of how highcoring I think

3:38Burrow and Herz and May and Caleb who also wasn't taking a lot of but was going there you know like those guys I

3:46think can kind of help close the gap enough to where I'm not like positive that Josh Hound's going to be like the

3:52key but like he certainly looks more likely to be the key than I thought ahead of the season. Um the the the flip

4:00side of this stuff is the teams that like like the Chargers, right? We we called them a wagon last week. They were

4:05in fact not a wagon at all. They lost >> What was the inverse of a wagon, by the way?

4:09>> Uh a broken spoke, >> just a wheel on the side of the road.

4:16>> Like do we have like the image of like the remember Oregon Trail? Like when your wagon wheel would break and it'd be

4:20like like that's like what they were that's exactly what happened in that game. like that image like we don't have we don't have any production on this on

4:28this show but like that would be like on the screen right now.

4:30>> Maybe the opposite of a wagon is dysentery.

4:33>> Yeah, they were they had they died of dysentery 100%.

4:38>> It was easy.

4:40>> Oh my god.

4:41>> Dysentery hit in Los Angeles there. They made it to California, but they didn't they didn't get >> all the way to the destination because

4:49they they did not look good and they lose to the the Cardinals. And >> you know this I will say one thing with

4:56with them um >> that was kind of interesting was the the time of possession uh was not in their favor. So, but we'll get to all this

5:04stuff as we get get through the game.

5:06So, let's let's dive in. Um, we can start with the Browns and Buccaneers, which is the first game I had in the

5:12walkthrough. And obviously not the most exciting side on the Browns uh side of things, but the Buccaneers, I had Bucky Irving as the cover boy. Um, I was real

5:21impressed with Bucky Irving's role in week one.

5:25>> Uh, he had a 26% target share at 2.29 yards per route run, a 33% targets per route run. He only had a 61% snap share.

5:32He actually only had 40% of the attempts. Kenny Gainwell was at 25%.

5:36um that's team attempts, not not running back attempts, but uh you know, so he wasn't like dominating work, but he was

5:44getting plenty of receiving work and they didn't have that many carries to go around. And looking at uh the Browns defense, you know, they were a big run

5:53funnel last year, but they were pretty good against the run. They were actually quite good against the run. They were just, you know, so dominant in the pass

5:59rush, people were avoiding dropping back against them. But this Browns defense does not look nearly as as scary against the run. and I think will still probably

6:07end up as a runfunnel because the offense is going to be so bad. And Buccaneers are at home here. Uh Browns

6:14are coming away from week one with the second worst rushing success rate against them. And Bucky also ran really well last week at a 63% EPA success

6:24rate, 13 rush yards over expected. So, I I think this is my read on this ahead of week one, you know, entering the season

6:31was that Bucky Irving was going to be the clear running back one. Um, you I was unsure about that when Shawn Tucker

6:39looked like he might be in the mix, but when they were talking about maybe cutting him, making him take a pay cut

6:43and everything, I started to get a lot more bullish on Bucky and and really prioritize him in the fifth round. And

6:48he looks like he's just going to hit the ground running here in in this matchup.

6:52He could get a lot more work than he did last year as a runner. and he's still getting targeted on early downs. So, I

6:58think even in a positive game script, he can rack up carries and targets.

7:04>> Yeah, 100%. Uh yeah, and that he's going to get they're going to run the ball more than 13 times or your running backs

7:10ran it 13 times in week one. So, he's going to get a lot more volume. Like you said, the early down stuff was really

7:15good. I also was very happy to see him lose a fumble and then go right back to him, right? Yep.

7:20>> Like lost a fumble, then went right back to him. Uh because you you never want to see like that like pull a guy off the

7:26field especially when it's something fluky that happened to Jaory Kroski Merritt and you know we'll talk about that when we when we get there but yeah

7:32it's always a bummer man >> they had they treated that differently in Washington. Yeah. And it's a bummer because like there's like you love when

7:38they just go right back to a guy and he lost that fumble right back to him.

7:41Seven catches and I I've always thought that this offense was going to run a lot more the Zack Robinson offense would be

7:48a lot more like the Liam Cohen offense and that he threw to his running backs a lot two years ago. I think we'll see

7:54that uh again uh with Bucky Irving catching a lot of passes. I also think too like coming away from that game

8:01watching the Buccaneers wide receivers I came away and it's just one game and it's into you know the Bengals I think

8:06they're going to be a lot better spot here but like they don't have a lot of juice man like that they don't have a

8:11lot of of like outside juice and I think they're going to need a guy like Bucky I to be involved in the passing I think

8:16it's going to be largely a short into intermediate passing game any anyways like just top down.

8:22>> Yeah, that that seems likely to me as well. Well, I mean, Chris Godwin did not have a good game at all. Uh, Omechabuka

8:29was fine.

8:30>> They they have Jaylen McMillan coming back this week, which should help. Uh, Ted Hurst, we talked about probably being the sacrificial accent, and that's

8:37is what he was.

8:38>> Um, still kind of bullish to see him get on the field this quickly in a big role.

8:43>> Nice catch, man. A nice catch late in the game.

8:45>> Yeah. Um, so, you know, I'm hopeful for what he'll become, but it wasn't, you know, an incredible debut. Uh, so yeah,

8:54I think they they probably do need Bucky. And you know, you mentioned Zack Robinson looking more like Liam Cohen's offense, but last year they also threw a

9:01lot to Bejian Robinson. I understand Bucky isn't Bejan Robinson, but Bucky has been a good receiver uh all three years, and you know, counting week one

9:09as a as a year might be premature, but you know, in his first two seasons, he was he was quite efficient as a

9:14receiver.

9:15>> He's a good receiver in college, too.

9:16>> He was a good receiver in college, so it fits with his skill set. And at the very least, Zack Robinson, you know, has

9:21proven himself not to not to have any issues throwing to his running back. And Bejon saw a big spike in receiving work

9:30last year. So, he could be, you know, bringing over >> Yeah. In week one, >> some of that stuff. What' you say?

9:35>> And in week one.

9:37>> And in week one. Yeah.

9:38>> The highest target share in the NFL.

9:41>> I know. It's crazy, man. Um, I did like Ibuka's usage. Like all ever all of his uh stuff was all

9:50motion based. Like they were moving him and uh so we maybe we'll get like a better run out in the future because

9:55we've talked about the Bengals like they actually are they've been a sneaky good team against wide receiver ones and against wide receivers in general going

10:02back to last year. They just got killed by tight ends and running backs and it was at least nice for one week to kind

10:07of say like all right maybe we still do attack these guys with running backs. We just had like a It was a very weird game

10:12though uh because the game had two defensive touchdowns. Like Baker had all his weird fumbles. He had that crazy play. It was almost a great play and

10:19then turned into a disaster of a play uh on the fumble in the red zone. And Baker's led the NFL in fumbles each of

10:25the past two years. He's off to a good start uh to make it to make a three.

10:30>> He's still got the belt.

10:32>> Yeah, it was an interesting one because the uh like Baker stuff like he had a he was really accurate. He had an 82%

10:40completion percentage. He has he had a 4.7 ADA at 4% deep pass rate. So you what you're you're talking about there

10:47with it being, you know, kind of conservative offense, but like they're, you know, a high sort of high success rate, conservative offense, but then

10:57Baker injected kind of his own chaos into like this isn't an offense that should not actually be very chaotic, but uh he still found a way. So,

11:06>> yeah, it'll be it'll be interesting. I mean, the Browns do have, you know, good players on the defensive line still. Um,

11:14they were kind of weak in coverage last year, and I think that will probably be a vulnerability for them again. They

11:20were not good last week, though. They they currently ranked dead last in quick pressure rate. They're 27th in pressure rate. They're 29th in pass rush win

11:28rate, the Browns. So, this defense, I mean, it was just was straight up bad in week one across the board. Uh, they

11:36currently rank dead last in overall defensive success rate. So, if you know the goal for the the Buccaneers is kind of to dink and dunk and just have kind

11:46of the high completion percentage, high success rate approach. I mean, the way week one went, that seems like an effective strategy.

11:54>> Yeah. Just protect the football. That's all it is, >> right?

11:57>> Yeah. Yeah. the Browns we don't like we like they said they have good pieces but we just don't know right new defensive

12:02coordinator and Mike Gutenberg first time NFL defensive play play caller uh it's just kind of hard to know like where the losing Miles Garrett like

12:11where all these things were going to impact them >> losing Jim Schwarz is not good >> yeah and then they play the Jaguars who

12:17just like literally looked as dominant of where we left off like >> uh you know so it's like it's hard to

12:24get like a full gauge like I think they're probably a little bit better than what they played in week one because I think there's enough talent,

12:30but the fact that like the cohesion uh it might take a while and they're on the road again and the offense is bad like

12:37they're going to consistently even if they a little bit better like they're going to just be put in bad spots regardless.

12:43>> Yeah. Yeah, that's true. Um any any other thoughts on the Bucks pass catchers here? I mean it sounds like you're also into Bucky as well in this

12:50spot.

12:51>> Yeah, I think this is a pretty clear spot for Bucky even in DFS. like you got a home favorite uh you know spot where

12:57he could rack up touches and and get early down run uh receptions with runs and he's going to run more anyways. Um

13:04and we might get a you might get a little FOMO because Shawn Tucker's back, but we talked about it going into last

13:08week. I basically removed Shawn Tucker from my assessment of this backfield in the 11th hour of the summer. I was like

13:14I'm not even treating him like he's >> y >> you know part of it. And then to see him out touch Kenneth Gainwell 15 to6. He

13:21also ran more routes than G. Gainwell basically just played like the ancillary receiver role. Uh so like that was like really it like that that was all that

13:29Gainwell even played and maybe we'll see more of him going forward and he'll get involved here. But for week one >> you feel great. 23 yards per route run.

13:37He had a 4% target share and his success rate was 20% which is really really bad.

13:43Um, I one reason I like looking at at success rate is I think it's it's a metric that lines up pretty well with

13:50like what the coaches are kind of looking for. Like did you execute the play?

13:53>> You know, it's obviously not perfect.

13:55It's it like they you could execute the play quite well and someone blows it up, right? And it's not but you know it's

14:02also a metric that we get a signal on more quickly than some of the other stuff because you know it's just like a

14:09yes no metric. So, if you've got like 20 plays, like you actually get a little bit more signal there than something

14:14like breakaway yards where it's like, did you did you have a breakaway run in in 20 plays? No. Does that mean you're

14:20not explosive? Not necessarily. You could actually be extremely explosive and not have a breakaway run in 20 carries. So, it it is a you know, it's a

14:28it's one game, though. Like, it's too early to say anything about game, but I would say >> he didn't like make a case for more

14:34playing time and Bucky Irving did. So heading into this spot, I would I would I feel confident that like what we saw

14:42last week probably holds. Um, you know, enough to to bet that it does. And then, you know, if it does, then I think

14:50Irving can really take advantage of this matchup in a big way.

14:53>> Yeah, 100%. And and the Browns are just, like you said, it's such a run funnel.

14:56It's I I have no problem with anyone still playing Ibuka. Godwin I think would be more of maybe on the fence of

15:03me probably going in another direction this week just because you need the against the Browns like you need to be like ultra efficient to like have spike

15:11weeks like >> they faced 25 dropbacks last week and Trevor Lawrence was like that that's like the level of efficiency you need

15:20>> it was his EPA was nuts >> like I mean dude he was throwing absolute seeds too and uh well last but

15:28even going back to last here the Browns were they were uh they faced the third fewest drop backs per game. So like you

15:34have to be hyper efficient throwing against them because you just don't get a lot of opportunities because they're bad.

15:40>> Right. Right.

15:43>> Yeah. And it doesn't seem like I does not seem like he's going to have like a hyper consolidated role which is going

15:49to be you know tougher for him to get there.

15:52>> Yeah. He would need like the Drake London target share.

15:54>> Yes.

15:55>> Like you know what I mean like the Yeah.

15:57>> Yes. So, like maybe maybe he maybe that's something that develops over time, but >> he wasn't limited uh off the toe. Like

16:06he's one of these guys that we will talk about some guys that like there was their first game back by not playing the

16:11preseason. I mean, he he was on the field just under 90% of the pass plays.

16:16>> Right. Right. Um Yeah, but his his target share was 22% which is good.

16:22>> Yeah. Um first return target rate 16% which is which is good but nothing in in his week one really jumps out as like oh

16:29man he's he's clearly installed as the guy he could be like Godwin was pretty bad so maybe things move in his

16:36direction but it's probably like if I has a giant weak it's probably in a matchup where they get pushed more.

16:43>> Yeah. I think you're looking for him to score a touchdown. You're hoping that he has the you know the five to seven

16:48targets and you get a you get in the box out of it.

16:50>> Yep. All right. Brownside. What What is there to say, man?

16:55>> There's I mean, listen, Todd Mcca can sell us all he wants about the the Deshawn Watson, but we all know we all know

17:04>> Todd Mccin has like some kind of like Makea-Wish energy to the whole thing of like, hey, I get to coach a team like

17:10Browns.

17:10>> I thought too maybe >> I'm into it.

17:17>> He was Yeah. Like you get your you finally get your dream and be a coach.

17:20He's like, "Yeah, >> are you bummed out that it's just Sean Watson Brown?" He's like, "Not at all."

17:26>> But dude, they just got the hell out of there last week, though. Like, they didn't even try to like They were just

17:32like, "We're good. We're going to we're going to go home." Like, they they were below pass rate expectation. They were just content. They had a couple They had

17:39one garbage time drive uh in the fourth quarter where you got the Denzel Boston touchdown and like that was that was

17:45really it, man.

17:46>> Um Bucks defense, if they were available, pick them up. Uh that's really but he took n Watson that is took

17:53a 19% sack rate. It was his fourth start going back to the last time we saw him.

17:57He's had double digit sack rate. The dude is just a sack eating machine, man.

18:01>> Yeah. And it's just it's so there's a few reasons why the Browns are not going to be fun um for this the foreseeable

18:10future. One is uh they had a 73% expected pass rate last week. They passed 63% of the time. So 10% below

18:18expected on first and 10. They had a minus 22% pass rate over expected. Super super conservative.

18:25>> And and and that's just like bad football. Like you're you're just like you're kind of burning it especially in the context of

18:33>> what is happening on those runs. Like are do you have like some dominant run game? Like no you don't actually. you've

18:40got a terrible offensive line and they know you're going to run the ball and it's just like you're kind of just

18:46putting the offense in a bad spot and putting Deshun Watson behind the sticks which is not smart. So, and then you

18:53look at Watson, the way he was playing, he had a 10% turnover worthy throw rate which is nuts. His time to throw was

19:003.43 seconds which is super long. He was allowing pressure per PFF. They chart, you know, the responsibility for the pressure. he's allowing pressure at a

19:10super high rate. Uh then there was there was also a lot of pressure. Then he was turning pressure into sacks. He had a

19:1633% pressure to sack rate. So it's like the guy is doing everything he can to kind of put the ball in harm's way. He's

19:22not getting the ball out of his hands quickly. He's also he's got an eight out of 10.8 deep pass percentage of 18%. So

19:30he's he's chucking the ball deep like every think of every risky thing you can do. hold the ball, you know, take on

19:36create pressure, get sacked, you know, you you're you're throwing downfield, you're throwing near defenders, like it's all it's all bad. He's also moving

19:47off his first read at a at a really high rate. So, this isn't really like the design of the offense. It's it's more

19:52like him trying to create plays on his own, which, you know, Caleb Williams was doing a lot of this last week and it

20:00worked really well. So, it can be done, but Deshun Watson looks so washed that you can't really count on that. One

20:06thing that really sucks with with the way he's playing is that >> Harold Fannon is, you know, an underneath guy, right? His got an he had

20:14an eight out of six last year.

20:16>> His eight out last week was 3.3. Like when Deshawn Watson decides not to throw that five yard pass, that was probably a

20:24first read to Harold Fannon, you know.

20:26So this is this is actually looking really bad for Harold Fannon for as long as Deshun Watson is under center.

20:33Fortunately that might not be that long.

20:35Like next week we might get Shador Sanders when they go back to Cleveland depending on how this week goes. But I

20:40do have real concerns about Fannon's fit with Deshawn Watson and his like there's a chance that Fannon is the centerpiece of this offense but that is not the way

20:52that Watson was executing it. There's a chance that Casey Conpsion was the centerpiece of this offense, but that is also not the way it went last week. He

21:01had a 19% target share, which isn't which isn't terrible, but that was the same as Jerry Judy. Um, and the same as

21:07Denzel Boston. So, he uh Conpion wasn't standing out either. And I think both Conpsion and Fannon are going to be more

21:15shallow AOT guys. I think they're probably hurt the most by the way Watson is playing. and Boston has probably helped the most, but going to be pretty

21:23boom bust.

21:24>> Yeah. I mean, there's a lot of guys in that arc type that are in better offenses that we can you can kind of

21:29chase than than you know that that full-time X, you know, running the all the plays, but like getting all downfield targets, right? Like he's

21:37basically, you know, he's in the Courtland Sutton role, but in a very bad offense.

21:41So, you're just hoping you you catch that touchdown. Best baseball that's fine, right? Like if you drafted him, you'll you'll run into some stuff. Uh,

21:47but we kind of need Shador I think for one Fannon because we saw us in the preseason because Fannon didn't play

21:53with Watson last year because Watson didn't play and in the preseason all Watson's plays that he didn't target him either. So it's just like is he going to

21:59be a fit because uh that's not just Watson's game and it wasn't it was never honestly even at the height of Watson's

22:05games like he was he was throwing those types of plays. He was always been a guy that wanted that, you know, big game

22:10hunt and the NFL passed him by when he took that absence. The he came back to a game that just nuked that style play. It

22:17happened to Russell Wilson, too. Um, so it's just really hard to see why Deshun Watson's playing be real bullish on, you

22:23know, him and probably Conception.

22:25conception at least as a guy you know like when he plays they are going to find a ways to get him the football like

22:30his utilization per snap and route was really high and that's kind of what I expected but I he's still going to be

22:36limited because Judy's at least going to run like he's just going to be out there like so >> yeah although it's a problem

22:44>> I do I wonder like if if we're talking it's week eight week nine week 10 like I don't think Judy's going to be out there

22:51as much I mean >> Conpsion played 67% of his snaps in the slot which is 89th percentile at wide receiver. Uh, you know, based on last

22:59week and I think eventually he'll play more outside and that's he needs I think it's probably more about where Conception is at than where Judy's Judy

23:09stinks at this point. Like it's just he's not blocking anybody. So if Conpion can get more comfortable in the offense and start to add some of you know some

23:17of Z to his arsenal a little bit more than just playing out of the slot, I think his playing time will increase.

23:24But but yeah, I mean I think you he was he could earn uh targets downfield last year in college, but the real exciting

23:32part of his game is that he can he can be a downfield guy, but he can also be kind of an underneath guy, too. You

23:39know, a little burdeny um Z Flowers, you know, kind of that way where you're getting some slot receiver, some like downfield number one and and kind of a

23:48combo package. And >> he had the three.

23:51>> So Watson doesn't hurt. Say that. He had he had three runs too. Like you're going to get that a little bit like I mean

23:57that's not something you're counting on for like points but like you do just get it's at least in his range of outcomes.

24:02>> Totally.

24:03>> Yeah. So anyway, Watson is Watson's going to make this painful.

24:08>> Yeah.

24:08>> That's pretty clear >> pretty much.

24:10>> Yeah.

24:11>> If for one week we'll we'll probably only get one more week because I thought we would have solid during that game

24:16last week but we didn't.

24:19>> No. No. I think they'll just ride with him this week and then hopefully bench him. But, uh, the other thing that's

24:24that's disappointing about the Browns is, um, Dylan Samson gets hurt. Um, and then you think that Dylan Samson being out might open some stuff up for

24:33Judkins. It did not at all. Uh, Rocket Sanders was was coming in. Yep.

24:39>> And he matched Judkins with 42% route participation and had a 14% target share to Judkins 10%. Uh, Judkins had a 65%

24:48snap snap share, which is pretty good.

24:50was running back 13 on the week, but you know it it's like he's just kind of he's so clearly like in his role like

25:00they've got they've got the Judkins role, someone else is going to play the Samson role or whatever and that's I guess now the Rocket Sanders role.

25:09It it does feel like Judkins is really going to be limited um to kind of a touchdown or bust sort of low-end RB2,

25:18maybe even highend RB3 type of guy. Like it's just I mean this offense, this offensive line, he he needs he also

25:27needs them to go to Sanders and Sanders to be better than he was last year, I think.

25:32>> Yeah, he was just a tough he was just in a tough spot all year. like you the the the nonp passcatching running back in

25:38and like the worst one of the worst offensive environments in the NFL was, >> you know, kind of easy to avoid. You

25:44know, it's a bummer.

25:46>> It's a bummer. I think he's talented.

25:47So, >> yeah, I do I actually do think he's a good player, too. It's just that it's the dumb way our game doesn't overlap

25:52with with real football sometimes, >> right?

25:56>> Because I mean I mean they're just it's just impossible. They're gonna like even this week they're on the road again as

26:01what nine-point underdogs. because they have a 16-point team total. Like like what that's like that's top down. That's just an environment we've been told in

26:08our whole lives to always stay away from like >> right like like just >> tough.

26:15>> It is. And I think yeah he needs he needs the offense to take a step forward unless they're going to start throwing

26:22to him more which I which I don't think they are. I mean, Samson going out and then Sanders coming in and and filling

26:26that role, I think, tells you >> if you took him, they get the Panthers at home next week and maybe they make a

26:31a quarterback change or move and then you maybe can use that game as maybe a jumping off point to >> like to someone that needs that.

26:41>> Um, all right.

26:44Do you we we didn't discuss we we should probably talk about this beforehand, but do you have a wagon this week? I mean,

26:50you were leaning bears last week and did we didn't go with it. So, I think I just I'm going to follow your lead this week.

26:56You can just let me know when it happens. Uh, I'm going to follow you.

27:00>> It's a forward-looking wagon, right? We want we want a team that's going to be a wagon, not a team that that was a wagon.

27:06If it was a team that was a wagon, >> then I would say it's the Bears because the Bears were certainly a wagon last

27:12week. But what what are your thoughts on the Bears this week as they face this Brian Flores defense that pat that that

27:19blitz 78% of the time? They got a 50% pressure rate on Jordan Love. This is this is going to be a much more

27:25difficult test than the Panthers were.

27:28>> Yeah, 100%. This game is is super fun. I can't wait to see it obviously for all just the moving parts. Uh you know, will

27:34the Bears definitely have that look of like the be our carnival team this year?

27:38Like is this game environment one that we will get? Like there's just a lot of variables in play. we have a backup

27:43quarterback on the other side now uh you know a running back stop but I don't think that changes really a lot of

27:47dynamics here and then you have you know the two MadHatter matchups the the Ben Johnson versus Brian Flores and we we

27:54got to see it twice last year and it's interesting that Brian Flores had a lot more success not blitzing Caleb Williams

28:02and he blitzed them a lot in one game and then the other three games that they've played him the two of those are

28:08not Ben Johnson games they really didn't blitz him at all the other interesting thing too is that was only the second

28:13time that the Vikings won out of nine games where Brian Flores had a blitz rate over 60%. It seems like he just

28:21starts calling the dogs like when he's trying to create havoc and it worked in the fourth quarter of that game like

28:27they were losing that game and they just started creating a ton of havoc plays and it swung that game around. We saw it

28:32last night a little bit with Kelvin Shepard like do you know you ever play Madden and some dude is just beating the

28:37out of you and you're just like I'm just gonna start blazing. I'm just going to start like Kelvin Shepard did that

28:41last night and it just didn't work.

28:42>> It's kind of like FIFA where you're just like I'm going to like I'm slide tackling now. This is going to go either

28:49>> I just hope something I just hope something works out for me or red cards.

28:55Yeah, >> but when they haven't blitzed Kale Williams, uh Kale Williams has only thrown over six yards for passenth 1.1% touchdown rate. He's also taken a sack

29:04on over 7% of his drop backs. And what is interesting about that from two levels is last week the Vikings, not

29:10only did they blitz a lot, they had the highest pressure rate when they didn't blitz in the NFL. And even if you think

29:17about Caleb when he made that big jump last year from pressure to sack rate even in the two games last year when

29:22when the Vikings didn't blitz Caleb Williams, he had sack rates of 7.7% 8.3% in those games. So it's gonna be really

29:30interesting to see what Brian Flores does. Uh we did this show on our matchup show with Warren and Warren brought up

29:36uh pulled some like really dope charts that like if you are going to have success against the Vikings like under Brian Flores historically is like it's

29:43early down passing is like where they've been most vulnerable and um that's what I'm interested to see in this game like

29:50is Ben Johnson because the Bears are like a run first team and the Lions always were with Ben Johnson too to a

29:54degree right like they were setting stuff up for the uh with the Russian explosives and that's how this team works too and you saw them that last

30:02week was the fourth time that the Bears under Ben Johnson have outrushed their opponent by 150 plus yards. No other team has more than two of those games

30:10going back to last year. Uh, and the Vikings like they don't really let you run on them. And so I'm curious to see

30:16if the Bears are a little more aggressive on early downs here because if we know that stuff, I'm sure a guy

30:20like Ben Johnson's like it's been put across his radar as well.

30:24>> Yeah. Yeah. Well, it was interesting last week with the the way the Packers attacked. They had um a quick time to

30:33throw a really quick time to throw and uh a really high it was not just a really quick time to throw but 2.45

30:40seconds was the fastest of week one by Jordan Love. And then he had a first read throw on 74% of his drop backs

30:48which was also the highest rate of week one. So, it's get the ball out like you're and the offense is designed for

30:55you to get the ball out quickly, right?

30:57Like drop back. There's the read, throw it, you know, and this is the exact opposite of how Caleb Williams played last week. He had a 38% first read throw

31:08rate. Jordan Love was at 74% last week.

31:11He had a 3.47 second time to throw. Jordan Love again was at 2.45.

31:18So he was over a full second longer per throw than Jordan Love. And then Caleb Williams is attacking downfield. He had

31:26a 14% deep pass rate of 10.4 ADOT. So it was working great. He had a 72% completion percentage and a and an 11%

31:34completion percentage over expected despite being really aggressive downfield. So it obviously was an awesome game for Caleb.

31:42But it'll be interesting to see like how much they shift here to try to do more like quick passing versus maybe Caleb

31:50Williams can play his style of football and it works against uh Brian Flores. I mean Jordan Love did not have a great

31:56game last week playing in this quicker, you know, quick pass way. But it's just like it it is interesting that like you

32:04know Matt Laflur knows what he's doing.

32:06Jordan Love can be a guy who holds the ball and attacks deep. That that's in his bag. So, it's like kind of a weird

32:13fit here for Caleb potentially. And Caleb has not been good against the Vikings so far. Uh, under right um well, I guess half under Ben Johnson and half

32:23not, but he's he's had EPA per play percentiles of 55th, 15th, 42nd, and 33rd, and then success rate 48th, 7th,

32:3354th, and 27th in his four games against the Vikings. So, it'll be interesting. I mean, he's definitely uh, you know, looking like he's maybe taking a big

32:42step forward again this year, but play style-wise, this could be this could be a tough spot.

32:48>> Yeah, as I said, this game is is fun because it has to have like that volatility to it because and every

32:52anytime we have a oneweek sample and someone scores almost 60 points, like, you know, as DFS gamers, everyone's just go right back to that game and, you

32:59know, the defense is bad. You have cheap pieces in that game now with Wentz and Aaron Jones, you know, uh, opening up.

33:05So definitely people want to attack that. But this is a game I think has a wide range of outcomes. I think you

33:10could still get explosives too. I mean Jordan Love still like when the Vikings do give up plays, they will give up big

33:15plays. So you do have a shot for that as well. And >> yeah, that Christian Wson touchdown. I mean, >> yeah. Yeah.

33:20>> Yeah. Tucker Craft had some nice gains.

33:22Johnny Smith had a 50 yard play in that game. Uh they did give up a bunch of chunk gains. So those still are present

33:28as well. It's just the downto- volatility is always something I think we're going to have to deal with, especially when you go against Brian

33:33Flores. And I still think Caleb too is someone we have to see get over that crest. Week one was a great stepping

33:39stone. Now like stack those games for us. Show us that that's the next level of growth, right? Because year two his

33:45growth was the negative plays that the taking sack the taking sacks and turnovers. He cleaned up was still really kind of inefficient, volatile

33:54down to down and then in week one comes out and is has his highest completion percentage uh than any game he had last

34:00year. U Ben Johnson talked about him coming off of his primary too. music. We had uh plays for Love Land like where he

34:06was the primary and and you know Caleb was getting to his second and stuff like that. So uh that was something

34:12>> that almost has to be the case because I mean >> Right. Right. 100%.

34:16>> Like Khif Raymond had an 18% first read target rate which is actually like a lot higher than I would have thought

34:23>> but he had a 41% targets per route run.

34:27like >> he was getting >> we like Caleb was coming off his first read to someone else and going to Kher

34:37>> that's yeah I would believe that because he's Khalif Raymond but uh but yeah I mean he's and Burton was at a 15% first

34:45return target rate Lovelin was at 6% so Lovelin was not getting targets as the first >> and Lovelin played the whole game

34:52whereas the other receivers still were were not they were getting ramped up >> 89% % route participation, the highest among all tight ends last week.

35:01>> I noted in the walkthrough, I mean, I think he's pretty clearly in a good spot here. The the the goose egg is going to

35:08be a funny footnote, I think, as opposed to something that was a true signal of where he stands in the offense. I mean,

35:14week to week consistency might be an issue for Leland ultimately, but like the the ceiling week to week is still super high here. Um, and so I'm not real

35:23concerned about him. you know, I think he'll be just fine. The Raymond stuff is kind of It is wild that he got that

35:32much. You know, he had a 35% target share. Like, it's pretty pretty nuts. He he did only run uh a route on 58% of

35:38dropbacks. So, >> I'm not, you know, >> and they're going to play a lot 1213, too. Like, they're a team that's going

35:45to play a lot of multiple tight ends.

35:46So, his his route participation is always going to be, I think, really >> kind of, you know, lackluster. And we're not going to have a lot of games like

35:53this even if he even if he is even if he sustains like good utilization per route like you we're just not going to see a

36:00lot of nine target games for him.

36:02>> We're not. No. And and I think Yeah. So Luther Bird and Coulson Lovelin I think we'll be fine. It is interesting though

36:09like it does make you think about you know what kind of for an offense to be really concentrated generally that offense is going to be

36:20one that is like operating more by design like it did make me think about kind of Caleb's style which is to create

36:28plays and that that may ultimately like not lend itself to a hyper concentrated offense >> because if you're just kind of looking

36:36down to see who's open like that could be anyone on the field you know um kind of like how Josh Allen last night like

36:43he's finding Josh Palmer cuz Josh Palmer's wide open completely uncovered like that wasn't a play probably to Josh Allen or to Joshua Palmer Josh Allen's

36:51like buying time looks around boom you know throw it to the open guy so I think it is possible that this offense isn't

36:59as concentrated as as we were hoping and you know we were drafting Burden and Lovelin in the fourth round. Yeah, absolutely. I think they showed it and

37:05and because again I think the most underappreciated part of the offseason that for gamers because these guys are exciting, right? Like they're exciting

37:12young players and an offense with an offensive play caller and a quarterback ascending to not be like there's there's reasons to be excited but the most

37:18overlooked part was still that like dude this like they will run the [ __ ] out of the ball like >> that's also true like

37:26>> and that that we saw that last week like you know they will they will run the football. I'm curious to see if they're

37:31able to play that style this week. don't believe they will be. I mean, we saw them play the Vikings twice last year

37:37and in the two matchups that they played. Uh the backfield had like very limited production and that's what, you know, Brian Flores does anyways. Like he

37:45makes your running back have to block.

37:47He's always going to make sure your running back have to know their assignments and he's going to beat the out of them with blitzes. Uh but

37:54Swift was not in the top 24 running backs in either game last year um that they played. say 20 touches, 65 yards,

38:0221 touches, 90 yards. So, if you get in the box with that kind of game, you're fine. But, uh, and most people are

38:07starting him, but I've definitely sobered my expectations for him in this matchup.

38:12>> How committed do you think the Bears are going to be to, you know, establishing it? Because that's that is something

38:18with Ben Johnson where he has been, you know, he's tended to be pretty, you know, he has a pretty strong lean to

38:25the run. I'll note last year they had uh in week one they had a 1% proe ended up passing 68% of the time. Um in that

38:37first matchup so they weren't super committed there. Uh but then in the second matchup they had a 56% pass rate.

38:43Um sorry they had a 56% expected pass rate and a 50% pass rate. So they they passed 6% below expectations in that

38:52second game which is actually the game that that Caleb was worse in.

38:55>> Yeah. And that was also a JJ McCarthy game. So like you kind of have a little bit of cart launch,

39:01>> right?

39:02>> I guess they both were they both JJ.

39:04>> Oh yeah, the first one was a JJ McCarthy game, too. That's right. You're 100% right. That uh Yeah. When JJ came back

39:10at the end of the year, it was kind of like everyone knew at that point like we had kind of known the week one. It was

39:16kind of like there was still like a lot like be like, "Oh, this could work out, right?" Like and no. So, I don't think they're going to

39:24be able to like stack the the raw rushing volume they had in that game unless unless WZ is certifiably like has

39:29is a disaster in this game, but I think Wentz will be okay because they adjusted like when WZ came in the game, you could

39:36clearly tell like because he didn't prepare to be the starter last week. So, they had him running what they prepared with with Kyler Murray in the first half

39:43and then the second half they flipped.

39:45They changed everything. They got Wentz under center. they started playing more heavy personnel and they started playing more of the old school Kevin Oonnell

39:52offense like we talked about last week.

39:53One of the big reveals we wanted to see was, you know, how Kevin Okonnell and Kyler Murray the marriage was going to

40:00work out and we didn't get any answer because, you know, it was cut short. But now I have a little bit more I'm

40:06actually a little more confident in the Viking side here because Wentz I think at least for all of us faults allows

40:12them to run like the base offense that like we've seen Kevin Okonnell have success with >> for sure >> and like because you brought up playing

40:20Justin Jefferson last week and I was like I don't know I don't know how to finish with Kyler but if you would have

40:23told me Wentz was playing I jam the button like jam the button dude like we've seen six games now where Justin

40:30Jefferson's played with Carson Wentz and dude on an expected point basis is he's the wide receiver five like like he gets

40:37he gets he's had a really good floor with him too and he's getting like a 32% target share like 2.6 yards per out run

40:43at Carson Wentz like I'm like maybe Wentz is his Jamus I don't know but like it just like >> well he's not Jordan Addison Jawan

40:49Jennings Jamus because they literally were held without a catch between them.

40:53Yeah. So I mean he's he's very much locked on 41% targets here for Justin Jefferson last week.

40:59>> Understand? He really does.

41:02>> I get it too, man. Right. So, but uh yeah. So, I think Wentz's playing actually gives me a little bit more

41:07confidence in the Vikings, oddly enough.

41:10>> Yeah. I'm less the floor I think is higher.

41:13>> Yeah.

41:14>> Yeah. It's But I mean, like I don't I just like I I understand more what's going to happen even though

41:21>> you know you could have >> Yeah. I don't know. There's there's with Kyler it is more of a question mark

41:27still. We don't know. And obviously he throws an interception and gets concussed. It was not, you know, super promising in this in the little blip

41:35that we got. But, um, I mean, this Bears defense could be pretty bad, at least until they get some of the

41:44secondary guys back at some point. Then maybe we can calibrate if Kyler Gordon and Kobe Bryant come back. But, I think

41:49the pass rush is going to be a problem the entire year. That was a big red flag coming in is that that I don't know

41:54who's going to put pressure on the quarterback from this unit. And the front seven in general is just largely lackluster. Uh, so we can definitely

42:02probably pick on that all year. Um, if not the def secondary too. I'm just >> saying like they are still missing a

42:09bunch of bodies. Oh, and they had another guy get hurt last week and they're starting they're changing Nickelbacks this week because they had

42:14another injury in the secondary.

42:16>> The the thing too like when you look at, you know, I'm using numbers heading into week one from last year and obviously a

42:23lot's going to change and these defenses are like literally different dudes in some cases. So, you know, it only can tell you so much. And then you get into

42:30week one and again you're dealing with like these numbers that are a oneweek sample and we don't know, you know, how

42:37much even tell us because of how good the opponent was can drive so much of it. I do feel confident in saying that

42:43if you're letting up explosive plays at the fourth highest rate and you just played Bryce Young that you probably have an issue there. Mh.

42:53>> Um, and so I I think the Bears are going to be pretty vulnerable from a big play perspective, uh, this season going, you

43:01know, which fits with what we know about the the pass rush not being great and then them having some coverage issues.

43:06And then they also ranked dead last in run stop win rate. I don't think the run the run defense is going to be

43:13particularly good either. You you do have Minnesota last week playing a different style than Kevin Oonnell typically does as far as the run pass

43:21stuff goes. like the the scheme was was operating the way you would expect with Wentz under center, but >> Okonnell has very consistently had a

43:28tilt to the pass and that wasn't the case last week. He had a minus 8% pass rate over expected. They only ran the

43:35ball 55% of the time and they were minus 16% on first and 10.

43:39>> That's you did you did note that. Yeah.

43:41But but with Wentz, seeing it even with Wentz was interesting to me and and I think we could see them lean on the run.

43:48>> Do you think they could?

43:49>> I think I think they could. Yeah.

43:51because they have their defense, right?

43:53Now, now if the but Bears come out and score points and get you out of that, >> right? But they I don't think the Bears

43:58are going to push them, you know, certainly not the way they were pushing the Panthers last week. Like it's going to be a lot more,

44:04>> you know, competitive that way. So >> maybe they'll go for a fourth and one on their 20 again for us.

44:11>> Yeah. I mean, well, obviously like it there is volatility to this game because the the Bears, >> you know, are coming off this massive

44:19massive offensive output. So, if that's what we get, then then that will change things. But I I could see the the Vik I

44:26mean to have a minus 16% pass expected on first down, I think tells you a lot.

44:31Like like on this chart that I that I have in the walkthrough, they're basically overlapping with the Seahawks um in terms of their approach. So,

44:40uh, they they were pretty conservative and I think, you know, with WZ, they'll probably be at least somewhat conservative again.

44:46>> Well, that goes good for your, uh, you know, your Aaron Jones bags. The good little run out to start.

44:51>> Yeah, we'll see. We might, you know, maybe he he could score like 11 points, dude. I don't >> Yeah, absolutely. want to dream too

44:58much. But >> we did see Jordan Mason miss a game last year and granted it's a new, you know, you know, offensive coordinator and but

45:05like they don't have anyone behind him to like threaten touches right now. They really don't. I think >> Claybourne was a healthy scratch last

45:11week.

45:12>> I think Claybourne's a fun player, but I my write up was like this is going to take time. Like he's he has too many

45:17he's just too raw in terms of anything other than handing him the football and letting him run. Uh >> he's got a real fun run style. like he

45:25he has like a little bit of Lehan McCoy to him, but like he just wasn't asked to do anything. He's smaller and just like

45:30has no pass game like nuance to him at all. He can't he's not a great catcher of the football and he's not uh good at

45:37pass protection at all. And that's why I think we'll just see they elevated DJ Dallas and I think DJ Dallas is just

45:42going to be like we talked about the Ogabwale like right he's going to be that dude like he's going to be in on

45:48like yeah he's going to be that guy and we're going to see but I could see Aaron Jones getting 20 touches when Mason

45:54missed last year he had 21 >> and you get if you're tell me I'm getting 20 touches against the Bears like I'm just going to let the fantasy

46:00deities take the wheel.

46:02>> I I'm I'm into the Aaron Jones play for sure. Um I mean he he had per the rush yards overex expected model he was he

46:08was running back five in success rate last week so he wasn't >> and you're getting him fresh >> the only thing he was good in rushing

46:13metric wise but let me >> get him early in the year man >> yeah yeah >> um uh yeah so I think TJ Hawinson although

46:24he played he had 77% round participation so the role there looks pretty pretty good like you know he's kind of back to

46:32what you would you would hope he was um that that was nice to see. I have him as a as a high-end tight end too type. Um

46:39but yeah, mostly I think this is about cheap Aaron Jones and and Justin Jefferson. Like that's that's the Vikings offense.

46:48>> Um all right, let's move to the next game, uh which I have as the Bengals and Texans. How how not for real is the

46:57Texans defense, do you think?

47:00>> I think they're probably going to be really good. Um, but again like this is early in the season.

47:05>> The Bills are a wagon.

47:06>> The Bills could just be the wagon. First off, >> I think they are a wagon.

47:09>> They are Bills. They >> The only reason they're not the wagon of the week is they they already played.

47:13>> Yeah, they went all against the Lions, especially dude. Did you Did you catch the halftime uh interview with Dan Campbell?

47:19>> No, >> dude. He I mean he basically said like not I'm verbating him in this, but like he basically said like we knew we were

47:24going to give up a shitload of points and we needed to score every drive. like he basically pretty much said that like

47:29he knew that they were going to get scored on. Like he was like we needed to score every drive like the like he

47:34basically was like he knew. So giving up points to Josh Allen I don't think is a huge deal even though they had success

47:40the previous two matchups like we talked about last week. Uh but I still think personnel wise this is a very good unit.

47:46Um, I think that they will be good. And the Bengals again, I know they win that game and the box score looks like their

47:52offense was good, but it wasn't.

47:55It wasn't again wasn't good to start the year. And we've had Burrows been dealing with a back injury this week. Um, so

48:01like I this is a game too like I don't think they're going to line up and be able to really run effectively. Uh, it

48:07just, you know, can we get some shot plays now in the passing game? You know, that's that's where it all stands. But

48:12this is an offense I still think is I don't have a ton of confidence in them right in this matchup.

48:17>> No, I I will say if you know the positive case I think for the Bengals is you look at what the Bills did last

48:25week. The Bills were actually quite aggressive against the Texans. Um they they were passing aggressively.

48:33>> And um then you look at what the Bengals did last year. The Bengals had the fourth highest shotgun rate. Shotgun per

48:40drop back. They were fourth highest there. Uh, and you know, they they didn't they didn't do like a ton of play

48:46action. They were third lowest in play action. Play action's good, but like there was this feeling of, hey, they're practicing a lot under center. Like, is

48:54this are they going to try to like build more around the run and probably not, you know, they they had a 6% proe. They

49:01were they were 14% on first and 10.

49:04um they kind of look like the Bengals in week one, including starting slow and yeah, week, >> you know, week one Bengals. So, they I I

49:14think that we do at least have um you know, the Bengals kind of are who we thought they were, >> right?

49:20>> Um which is good. You know, they're they're going to they're going to play to their strengths uh over the course of the

49:27season. Jamar Chase obviously has a big stinker in week one, but T. Higgins was in kind of his normal role. Masiki pops

49:34up for this insane role. He had 46% route participation.

49:38>> Um and and you know, but but had 4.59 yards >> perhaps was he was that's exactly what happened.

49:44Yeah.

49:47So, you know, I think that was kind of some week one weirdness. There's there's not a ton to say on on the bang was like

49:53pretty much, you know, the the Chase Brown that I was skeptical that he was going to take this huge leap forward

49:58from where he was last year. at the same time like he was pretty safe bet to be what he was last year which is kind of a

50:05okay running back in an amazing situation who doesn't really have a threat to his touches like that's looks like exactly what he he had 23.1

50:14expected fantasy points he turned in 18.8 like, "Yep, okay, Chase Brown." You know, it's it's uh >> so I not a ton to say. I do think the

50:27Texans are going to bounce back and they're going to be a really good defense. So, this isn't a great spot, but but the Texans might be a team that

50:33you actually do want to pass the ball against. They're they're rund last last week. Um >> still good.

50:39>> Still good. Um so, so that's the part where, you know, maybe you do just need to maybe they end up being kind of a

50:45pass funnel actually. Um especially if they're a little worse against the pass than than we were expecting.

50:51>> Yeah, we could see it. And then you got we have to worry now about this game too. The provided push with Nico Collins

50:56being out now in this game. Uh the removal of him from this offense because they already lost Jaden Higgins. And you

51:03know, we're just down bodies, man. Like down good players. And you're elevating Xavier Hutchinson. You're elevating Kahan Booty who's been with the team for

51:12three weeks. You're elevating Dalton Schultz, right? Like there's not a lot that's real exciting that Nico Collins missed time last year. CJ Strad almost

51:21lost a full yard per pass attempt >> and you have this D you have David Montgomery added and the touchdowns are

51:28great but like dude the efficiency was awful. Um they also switched up their run scheme in week one which I thought

51:35was really weird. Uh they were they were like a man gap team last year and they were number two in the NFL behind the

51:41Rams. And then at least for one week 55% of Montgomery's runs were outside zone which was like really weird. I don't

51:47know if they thought they had something schematically against the Bills that was going to work and that's what they went with. But he did run well like out of

51:54man power when they did it. Five six yards per carry. It's only five carries for 30 yards including that touchdown run he had. But I thought it was really

52:00weird outside zone 11 carries 18 yards.

52:03So like whatever they scouted or like were like it didn't really work. Um >> M man, >> I'm I'm genuinely concerned about them

52:13in this spot though because the Bengals I don't think are going to like make this jump from like a bottom end defense

52:18to like a top 10 defense. But I do think they could be like middle to bad and like they're just not going to be like a

52:24dog walk that they were last year. And if you're if you're missing Nico Collins and like your whole plan is just like to

52:30build the whole ship out of David Montgomery, I don't know if like that's optimal either.

52:36>> It's not. I I think Daltton Schultz definitely is intriguing here. Just like a guy >> he's going to get a bunch of I was like,

52:43uh >> I was tight end one, you know, it's it's like volume based, but like what else are they going to do?

52:49>> Um >> Hudinson Booty, like the both those guys were part-time guys last week. 69% round participation for Hutchinson, 64% for

52:57Booty. Still learning the offense, you would you would assume. Um I mean Kaylee did spend some time in New England, so

53:03maybe, you know, it's not like super hard for him to get up to speed. I don't know. But >> he played in the slot a decent amount

53:09last week, which I thought was interesting, but I don't know how steady now with Nico being out. I don't know if

53:13that's static though, >> right? And then null, I mean null had an 83% slot rate. So if you're going to have him on the field more, then booty

53:20needs to be outside as does Hutchinson.

53:21So, >> Mhm.

53:23>> Yeah, it's the wide receiver core is is, you know, in real real tough shape now.

53:28Um, you know, cuz that, you know, obviously Dell is on IR. So, like, you know, the three it's possible that that

53:37you know, the three guys they had planned for like week 17 this year were Higgins, Nico, and Dell.

53:44>> Yeah.

53:44>> And and none of them will be in this game. So, >> uh yeah, not not great for for the Texans. The Bengals, I will note, you

53:53know, their defense ranks 28th in success rate overall, 27th in dropback success rate.

54:00>> We talked about that was just like all the quick-hitting Baker stuff, >> right? The quick hitting Baker stuff, but but then also, you know, they

54:08benefited from the Baker madness, you know, so they're they're they're 10th in Dboa, they're eighth in EPA.

54:14>> That's not real. Yeah. Yeah. The turnover.

54:16>> That's not Yeah, that's not real.

54:18And that's what remember the Bears did that last year where they were they were horrible defense that got a bunch of

54:22turnovers somehow.

54:23>> Yeah. And the Jags were also like one of those Yeah. The success rate was bad and then everyone was passing against the

54:28Jags, but they would make big plays.

54:30>> Um so yeah, not not a ton of goodness here on the Texans side. I think Montgomery though is is fully

54:37established as kind of the >> Oh yeah, you're playing him.

54:40>> Yeah, he he had a 63% carry share. So Woody Marks actually led the team in led the backfield in snaps uh 51 to 49% but

54:48Montgomery led 63 to 28% in carries uh and then 8% to 3% in target shares. So you know he's he's the dude over over

54:58Woody marks pretty quickly.

54:59>> 65% snap his snap share went to 65% in the red zone and 85% at the 10 yard line and in so

55:05>> beautiful. Yeah, that he's got all the money, all the high value stuff. And if he gives you a couple catches a week,

55:11like last week, you'll feel relatively good as like a volume based dude.

55:15>> Nice. All right. Um, Saints at Ravens.

55:20Another potential wagon, the Ravens.

55:22But, uh, Z Flowers being out, I think, makes that makes that harder to get behind.

55:27>> They were a buzzsaw, dude, in week one.

55:30And when there's a new offensive coordinator, like I always want to see like are you doing stuff that's like optimal, right? Like that like that I

55:39not only I believe is optimal but like to like your game plan to like the specific team. So Lanarumo >> when Lanna Rumo acquired Sauce Gardner

55:48last year and S ended up getting hurt but they completely flipped and played like a ton of man coverage when they got

55:54Sarder. It makes sense you trade for saucegarder and the plan was and we >> they also have Trevarious Ward so they've got two really good corners now

56:02>> and the so to see like the proof of like Declan Doyle immediately saying I've got Zay Flowers dude Z Flowers was in the

56:09slot for 60% of his snaps and was just like shot out of a cannon creating plays for him away from those outside

56:16cornerbacks. Like he had a clear plan.

56:17He's like if he's going to come in and do this I've got this is how I combat this. Um, and I was like, "Dude, this is

56:22like I I saw the vision, right? We saw Lamar getting uh red zone RPO stuff. We saw Derrick Henry flew under the radar,

56:33dude. Like, so they played more the most under center snaps of Lamar's career.

56:36That was something that was rumored.

56:37They end up doing it. But Derrick Henry had uh 63% of his runs were outside zone is easily be his career mark if this

56:45holds. He he had he had 100 yards and three touchdowns in outside zone. Uh, and he's going against a team that in

56:51week one to Jir Gibbs gave up six and a half yards for carry on outside zone runs. Like now we don't have Z Flowers.

56:56He's a home favorite. Uh, man, like Yeah, but Declan Doyle like flying colors week one. Uh, keep it up.

57:05>> Yeah. Yeah. I mean, Henry's role looks very, you know, kind of Ravens Derrick Henryes. You know, there was, you know,

57:15maybe a little bit of optimism with a new offensive coordinator. They could throw to him a little bit more. He had a

57:204% target share.

57:21>> Yeah, >> that's not going to happen.

57:24But he's 32 and he still looks like Derrick Henry out there, which is pretty awesome. And this is an awesome matchup

57:30for him to do what we know he's going to do well, which is, you know, get rolling, score touchdowns. Um, so yeah,

57:39I mean, I think this is a really nice spot for Derrick Henry. Uh, watching the Lions last night, I kind of came away

57:47thinking, are the Saints not very good on offense? Like, how do you, you know, >> dude, that that Tyler shucked the first

57:54half of that game last week was an absolute nightmare, >> right?

57:58>> And then they then they scored all those points in the second half as they adjusted to the blitz and maybe the

58:03Lions just had the the the natural variance because they weren't good. But I think we're just going to I think that's going to be the Tyler Shuck

58:09experience. We talked about it last week. like he's just still like a very volatile player, man. Like, and the down to down consistency is I think going to

58:17be something that we just live with.

58:19>> And and I think like when we didn't have any expectations about Shuck, well, we did we that he was going to suck. That

58:26was the expectation when he was coming into the league, right? And then first our expectation was like, who? And then it became, oh, he oh, this 26-year-old

58:36guy, yeah, he's probably going to be terrible. Uh, no thanks. But then the volatility last season I think shocked people in a really positive way where

58:45it's like, "Oh, he's down to run a little bit. Oh, he's actually down to chuck it deep." Like he was doing

58:50>> volatile things that actually add upside to what we assumed would be this like boring one-year kind of or like maybe

58:58two-year, but like Davis Mill like he's probably Davis Mills, right? Well, oh, he's not Davis Mills. He's actually a little more fun than Davis Mills. That's

59:04cool.

59:06>> But I mean to he had 2.2 2 EPA last week, which was is not good. You know, it's not horrible, but against the

59:14Lions, you know, this is a spot where he could have put up like big numbers and really been consistent. He had 47%

59:21success rate, which is which pretty mediocre. So, just to have him come away from that matchup and look look mediocre in the numbers. Saints are like totally

59:30middle of the road, you know, in most offensive metrics right now. Um they're only 23rd in passing to be away.

59:37Yeah. So, they get this Ravens defense that looks maybe like pretty good. Um, so this is a and and you know with the

59:46Ravens it's hard to say because they played Daniel Jones in his first game off a torn Achilles. Like that could be

59:51inflating their numbers, but I'm pretty sure the Ravens are going to be better than the Lions. And I felt that way when

59:56I wrote this up before I watched the Lions play last night.

60:01And uh that aged well. So yeah, I think you know this is going to be a much more difficult test than he got in week one.

60:09>> Yeah, they're coming off a long overtime game on the road. Historically a spot where teams underperform like last night's Lions. Uh and and given too like

60:18when we get to the Chargers like what Chris Olirri did with that defense compared to what Jesse Mer did like Jesse Mer's probably a plus EV ad for

60:26this Ravens defense as well. Um, so >> right, >> I I have I have trouble going back to the I have trouble going back to the

60:34Saints box score, which a lot of people I think will go to because one, they ran 86 offensive plays, uh, which probably

60:40won't happen again here. And then I think people are just wiping out the first half of that game because the first half showed the floor of this

60:47offense as well. And I think that this game environment leads me more to saying that's I would lean to that being the

60:53more probable version we see than the fun second half version of of it. And there will be spots we get to go back to

60:59this Saints fun time, too. But I think this particular spot, I'm worried they get absolutely squished here, even with Z Flowers out because I I think it's

61:08just going to be a big dog game.

61:10>> Yeah. Yeah, I'm with you. And by the way, um I just pulled up from last night. Uh Josh Allen had had 21.5

61:22EPA. So, you know, that's what that's what a good performance against the Lions looks like. He you know, get up into the 20s, not a two, you know.

61:32>> So, uh obviously that's not fair to to compare anyone to jump, but you know, >> although golf last night was at was at

61:3921.2, so good. He was throwing some seeds in the second half, man. I know it didn't like it was cosmetic, but like that last

61:47touchdown to Aman Ra was >> Hey, our whole game is cosmetic.

61:52>> I don't.

61:52>> [ __ ] yeah.

61:54>> Yeah, it is.

61:58Hell yeah.

62:00>> Um, but yeah, I mean, what about what about ETN here? Because, uh, his role was like super super weird. He he gets

62:06there. I was going against him in some leagues, uh, you know, high stakes league. Uh I was like, "Oh yeah, nice."

62:12In the first half, like ETN's going to score nothing. And then they just started throwing to him a bunch and actually turned in a decent game. He had

62:18a 16% target share, >> but 40% of the team attempts and didn't run well. You know, looking like we're going to see some Kendry Miller uh as

62:29you know, kind of a split rushing role with ETN. It seems very It's just It's very surprising.

62:35>> Yeah, Nick Underh Hill was reporting that Kendra Miller was going to be part of the offense. Um and he got uh both

62:41touches inside the 10 yard line, converted one for a touchdown.

62:44>> Yeah.

62:45>> Uh again like like we have to block out that the Saints ran 90 plays like ETN was the RB18 in snapshare. He was

62:54the RB24 in route participation and didn't have goal line work. Pretty pretty big red flags uh are popping here.

63:01>> Yep.

63:02>> Because he's been a player throughout his career that has been based on like predicated on volume. like he hasn't really been the greatest efficiency

63:09player. Even last year, the Jaguars wasn't really good on a downto- basis.

63:14He just got the ball a lot in a good offense and that's all we need. That's really like the almost the barometer

63:20like did you clear that? You're probably be okay. And then are you really good in that scenario? Oh, you're going to be

63:23really really good at fantasy. Uh and all of those things seem removed from this equation. It's just one game, but we're going to get Alvin Kamara back.

63:30Who knows what how he fits into this at all. Uh, >> well, it's not going to help the passing stuff for for ATN, which was what saved

63:37him last week.

63:38>> And they're road dogs. They're massive road dogs against a defense we think's a lot better than the Lions. Like I I'm

63:44pretty suspect of him. I ranked him fairly low this week. Um, if you granted maybe he is just going to be like a PPR

63:51scam dude. I just don't know if that's going to be >> I have him as a high-end RB3. I'm also pretty

63:58>> I mean he he makes me nervous. Um, >> he had a 16% target share. He had a 33% targets per out run. So, there were some

64:06good like rate stats, but as part of an offense that, you know, needed to be throwing the ball a bunch and then was

64:16doing so against a defense that's not very good. So, it's like kind of kind of a sweet spot in a way like if you're

64:22going to be in this this otherwise, you know, not very valuable role because again, he only had 38% round participation. So, you kind of need the

64:30offense to be operating in a certain kind of way where they're passing a lot on early downs and, you know, getting

64:36the ball out to the running back at a higher rate. Like, that's not going to be all the time. You know, a lot of

64:41times you'd be running the ball in that situation. That might be to Kendry Miller uh a lot more than than we were

64:46assuming heading into the season. So, so that's not great. The Ravens run defense does look pretty bad uh at least through

64:53one week although they did face Jonathan Taylor which you know so it's hard to say but >> they also played sub package the highest

64:59rate in the NFL so they didn't care like and Jesse Mener did this in with the Chargers a lot too like he's one of

65:05those guys it's like I I'll concede some rush some rushing like I'm cool I'm cool with that like I understand the value of

65:11passing because we talked about this like my big article this year was talking about how offensive are starting to have success because defenses have

65:18started to take the cheese a little it and they're play they're playing more base defense >> and it happened again in week one. It

65:24lowered again because we saw our highest under center rate uh you know of the of the past 15 years in week one. There

65:31were there were 12 quarterbacks that were under center over 50% of their dropbacks. Last year in week one it was three uh and and the sub package stuff

65:38is what how these offenses are getting over. They're getting these teams to play sub package to one throw and then you know have their cake and eat it too.

65:45But Jesse Mer is not playing that game.

65:47Mike McDonald doesn't play that game, right? And granted, some teams try this and it can't work. Like the Bears do this, but they just don't have good

65:53players on the defense, but the Ravens do. The Ravens have good players. They've got Kyle Hamilton. Uh, so I don't think that them like

66:01conceding some rushing efficiency is like >> something that I don't think he cares about it to be honest.

66:07>> Okay. So then maybe that actually, you know, sustains and and that helps CTN a little bit, but you know, to our point

66:12here, it might help.

66:14>> Not as much as you would think. It's like they're still Yeah, they're still 10 point road dogs. And >> what what are your thoughts on on just

66:21like with Flowers out, is there any I mean Mark Andrews, you would imagine kind of gets a bigger role here. He did

66:27have 77% rap participation last week and uh 26% targets per out run, 2.13 yards per out run. So he didn't look, you

66:35know, completely washed and he would be the most likely guy, I think, to step up with both Jacobe Lane and Flowers out.

66:41Yeah, with with Flowers off the field last week, his route rate went to 84% and he had 36% of the targets. So, I

66:48think it's pretty clear it's going to be him. Uh, you know, Baitman was the sacri he got thrown. We talked about the game

66:55plan for the Z Flowers and getting thrown to Sauce Gardener. That was B.

66:58They threw Baitman at Sauce Gardner the game. Like he was I feel sorry because he ran around on he was out there 93%

67:05but like he just Sorry, man. You got to take one for the team. You gotta take one for the team this week. Uh, so I

67:11think he'll be more involved here, but the thing is the Saints don't give up a lot of passing production in a similar

67:18vein like the Browns because they suck like right and Brandon Staley does the same thing we talked about. Brandon Staley plays so much coverage and

67:27doesn't like he doesn't blitz, they don't rush the passer, but he doesn't want you to beat them through the air either. So it's like a combination of

67:34one, the Saints are usually bad. Since the start of last year, they've trailed at the highest rate of snaps in the NFL,

67:39and we have a defensive coordinator that doesn't want to allow big plays, and now we don't have any flowers in the game.

67:44It feels like just Mark Andrews, Derrick Henry, let's go home.

67:49>> Yep, I'm with you. Um, all right, Steelers at Patriots. Uh, Mike McCarthy, man, he he passed 72% of the time on a

68:0061% expected pass rate. So 11% above expected, 9% above expected on first down. I was thinking like, hey, this was a balanced team last year. Is there

68:10really that much upside, you know, as far as the the pass rate goes?

68:14Apparently, yes. Uh, now Aaron Rogers was was bad. He he had minus 5.7 EPA with a 37% success rate. On my EPA

68:24chart, he's he's just below Malik Willis in in both metrics. So, it's pretty rough for Aaron Rogers. But if you're going to get passing volume, that's

68:32pretty cool. Michael Pitman's looking like he he'll be out. So DK Metaf, who already had a 26% target share, is probably going to consolidate here in a

68:41nice way. So he he looks pretty interesting. Pat Fimmouth was in a in a pretty solid role. 72% round participation last week. I think if

68:48they're if they're going to pass like this, then, you know, he makes a lot more sense for the offense. Washington kind of gives you Darno Washington kind

68:56of gives you a little bit more of the run pass versatility, but if you're dropping back like 70% of the time,

69:01>> maybe maybe you don't need that. So, you know, going against the Patriots, they're on the road here. Uh this is a

69:07spot where they probably will need to pass and they seem pretty down to do that. Um even without Pitman, you know,

69:16we could be looking at some good passing volume, some good target volume for for DK Metaf here, I'd say.

69:23Yeah, I I was I really liked a lot of his usage uh on the route tree. He his slant rate was 24%, last year it was

69:2913.8%, crossing route rate was way up.

69:32Um so like it was nice to see that they did a lot of vertical targets. He left a lot of plays in the field. He could had

69:38a lot bigger game than he did. He had a drop where I think he was going to split the defense and and have like a 65 yard

69:44touchdown. He also had another weird play where he jumped where he didn't need to and ended up out of bounds on a

69:48on a one of the Rogers's better throws.

69:51Um, I think he's he's in play as like a a volume based bet here. Uh, the bummer is he's gonna go against Christian

69:57Gonzalez a lot in this game.

70:00>> Uh, we saw it last year. He did get a touchdown against Patriots last year, but it's u I don't know if they're going

70:04to scheme DK Metaf away from Christian Gonzalez the way Brian Flurry did with Jackson Smith and Jigba in the opener like where JSN and we talked to you man.

70:13>> I don't think he'll be like in the back field, you know.

70:16>> Yeah. So sort of like >> so I I mean I think you do play just sort of the volume and you hope

70:20something just works you know breaks your way because yeah uh you know you just need a couple big plays if you're a

70:24receiver right like uh cornerback match up be damned uh because he's going to have to get the football but it is a

70:30bummer that he is going against the literally the best cornerback in football since the start of last year uh as well. So that's a bummer.

70:38>> It is a bummer. Um, another bummer is what's going on with this back field where Rico Dowel led the team in snaps

70:4757%. Led the team in route participation 49%.

70:51But then had 38% of the carries with Jaylen Warren at 48%.

70:56And then like this is the exact opposite of the way you should use these guys, right? Like you're it's shouldn't it be Warren is

71:04kind of like out there for routes? He's a good pass blocker. was awesome pass blocker last season in the PFF stuff and

71:10and kind of has a reputation as that over the course of his career.

71:14>> He's a good player.

71:15>> He's a good player. He's a really good receiver. I mean, he had 2.23 yards per out run this past week. 46% targets per

71:21out run. So, when he was on the field, Rogers is really looking for him. Even with Kenny Gainwell last year, he had 40

71:26receptions. So like Warren makes a lot of sense as kind of the the guy who plays more often and gets used as the

71:32pass catcher but also kind of eats some some you know non-fantasy friendly snaps does the Dar stuff in addition to to you

71:41doing some useful stuff and then Rico comes in and Rico's kind of there to do what Rico does you know downhill running

71:48but but that's not the way they played it. They had them in the wrong roles.

71:52Although to be honest, the right roles I think would just be to like start Jaylen Warren and play him all the time. But,

71:59you know, Rico Dattle can play. I've been generally supportive of Rico Dattle over the last couple years uh because he's been really cheap.

72:06>> But yeah, it was a weird weird deployment. It was sort of like kind of like with the Giants where like they

72:11they threw to Devin Singleary like 14% of the time and not a single time to Cam Scaboo. Like did you watch any of last

72:18year, bro? like this guy's really good as a receiver.

72:20>> Writing that up was painful, man.

72:22>> It's so bad. So yeah, >> you called it. I heard you on coach speak at one point this off seasonason

72:28talking about like they were saying all the all these things about Scatbo being like a grinder, but they were never talking about him like as a pass

72:34catcher. And I remember I think it was you were just like I like cuz they're is not going to throw to him and they

72:39didn't throw to him.

72:40>> My my like drunk Don Draper uh meme is just like NFL coaches watch Red Zone.

72:46Like that's just I just want NFL coaches to sit down and watch Red Zone because I swear to God they like never have seen

72:54Cam Scataboo do this, you know, the cool receiving stuff that he does. It's like they see him and they meet him and they

73:00interact with him and they watch him practice and they're like, "Yeah, he's like a downhill smashmouth football player," which he clearly very much is,

73:07but like he's also weirdly this like really good receiver, too. So anyway, I I I kind of get that vibe with McCarthy

73:14a little bit where I'm like, you you seem to have the wrong impression about what these guys are and and I think

73:18he'll figure it out eventually, >> but maybe not this week.

73:21>> Well, listen, if one guy is turning 10 touches into 21 yards, like it's going to be real quick. We we've solved the

73:27equation because uh Warren didn't touch the football a lot and it's not like he was, you know, hyper efficient, but he was a

73:33lot more efficient, a >> lot more efficient than Rico was. I think the ultimate role is you have Warren be literally like the lion share

73:40guy and if he's still his one shortcoming that's like been consistent is he's like a not a good short yardage runner and like you just use dattle for

73:48that. You just use that's fine. Sure.

73:50Like >> but the rest of the game like Warren is like Warren should be the dude. He's just like I think he's a better

73:55all-around player. We'll see if it solves itself out. They they didn't run the ball well.

73:59>> It's Aaron Jones and Jamal Williams, right? like, hey, >> yes, >> just use Aaron Jones.

74:05>> That's he's better.

74:06>> That's That's true. That's 100%. That's what it is. And that's hopefully it ends up settling there. But, uh, it was

74:12encouraging to see them just wing it around and wing it down field. I knew they were going to run more 11 personnel

74:17this year, but like my whole thing was like at this stage of Rogers career, is he have any interest in throwing the

74:22ball downfield? Like any interest like because he he doesn't want to hang on to the ball. We know that, right? Uh, and

74:28man, week one he was he was chucking it, man. Like, so it could be kind of fun for like two QB stuff. They're going to

74:35have to throw here. It's just I wish they were going against the worst defense that hasn't been uh, you know, doesn't had like the longest rest

74:43advantage in the NFL, >> right?

74:47I do think they pushed them because, you know, looking at the the numbers from week one, it it was, you know, it was

74:53kind of encouraging where you go, okay, Drake May, he literally throws the game away with this this bad interception at the end of the game um in a situation

75:04where they didn't even need to really go for the touchdown. They could have kicked a field goal. So, it's just like,

75:09god damn it, right? And but hey, the numbers he has 5.5 EPA in that game, a 51% success rate. It really like wasn't

75:17that bad. I kind of you watching it, I I would have thought he looked more like Matthew Stafford in the numbers. It was

75:23like legitimately awful.

75:24>> Let me ask you about uh his his arm strength though >> because it's been a while. That game feels like it happened like a year ago,

75:31by the way. Uh the what we've lived through since. But yeah, man, he had no juice. like that throw to AJ Brown like

75:40I know that you should go ahead.

75:44>> Well, I mean I'm not so he's playing with AJ Brown Romeo Dobs doesn't have booty the guy he has the

75:52connection with. I'm like my my kind of expectation would be that there's kind of lack of chemistry as

76:02much as arm strength issues on me. I could be wrong, but you know, he didn't have shoulder surgery or anything, >> you know, so I would anticipate that he

76:12looks better over over time.

76:14>> Yeah. I was like, he made a couple I was like, where was the zip? Like where's the juice, man? Cuz he's we know he

76:19could throw it. Like >> I mean, he did have some zip on the one was a third down conversion to Hollands,

76:23I think. Like he he put zip on the ball at times. It's not like he was just he didn't look like two out there, you

76:30know? Yeah, he just didn't look like last year May like where because Yeah, he was like literally the he was so

76:35sharp downfield.

76:37>> He was so sharp and Yeah, but even when he's at his best, it's like he drops it in the bucket. His ability is like he

76:43kind of he's like, "Hey, I'm going to hand you this ball 40 yards downfield."

76:49But it's not like always the like a rocket, you know? He's not JJ McCarthy.

76:55He's not like throwing 95 mph heat. It's like he's got he's got a nice long throws a very catchable and wellplaced

77:02deep deep ball. So, I don't know. I think chemistry might be part of that.

77:07Hopefully, that is it and it's not an arm issue that he's got, you know, lingering from last year. I guess we'll

77:13see with more with more games. I, you know, obviously I don't know. It could be that.

77:17>> Nerously shifting everything again this week, >> right? Well, I mean, yeah, Romeo Dobs was was pretty bad last week. Brown's

77:26out. Obviously, trading booty for like literally nothing seems pretty dumb now.

77:32Kind of seemed dumb at the time.

77:35M. Collins, Deario Douglas, um, and Dobs are going to be the three main receivers here.

77:42>> Um, what what's your outlook on this? I mean, I would also say Kyle Williams will will have some kind of role. He'll

77:47mix in. Yeah, he's gonna mix in uh against the You want Kyle Williams though against like aggressive man coverage teams. That's like where like

77:56his you want him. He's a good man coverage undresser. That's like really all we've seen from him so far is that

78:02he wins at the line of scrimmage and he's fast.

78:04>> But like nuance we haven't seen like any that's probably what's held him back from playing more snaps is that you know

78:09outside of running you know getting off the press and running fast in a straight line we got we don't really have

78:15anything else on the sample. So, and I think this game too, they're probably going to be uh they're not going to like

78:21just wing it all over the the Steelers defense who we know they weren't tested last week obviously. Uh so, we don't

78:27have a gauge how they I think they are a good personnel defense though and Joey it sounds like Joey Porter Jr. is

78:31actually going to play this week instead of you know not to hold out for this money. Uh, so I I do think that they're

78:38going to be a lot more just like like how they were operating last week where they're they're trying to be like

78:42efficient, move the sticks, maybe not trying to necessarily even really push the ball downfield a ton. Anyways, but I could be wrong on that. Uh, with no AJ

78:50Brown. They're getting Trayvon back, too. Uh, my probably most the guy I'm probably the most excited about for them, my guess would be would be Hunter

78:58Henry, man. I think I think Hunter Henry gets the lift. He was really good in this matchup a year ago. I know there's

79:03moving pieces. We can't just I'm not going to go box score play him, but I do think he gets the biggest lift because

79:08he's got probably the arguably the best rapport of the remaining guys because unless Holland is going to like play 100% of the snaps.

79:15>> He'll play a bunch I think.

79:17>> Yeah. Um I >> mean Holland is going back to the the playoff run and stuff like he's kind of been May's Foxhole guy like

79:25>> he's just a reliable big-bodied target and May likes to throw over the middle and he kind of has that he kind of

79:32throws high sometimes over the middle.

79:33So I think he likes like a tall receiver over the middle is is kind of nice for him. The big kind of like power forward

79:39type guy like the tight end but also you know Hollands who >> spend some time in the slot. Um he spent

79:46less time in the slot last week because Deario Douglas you know 86% of his snaps came there but he can >> even if he's not in the slot as well

79:54sometimes he'll be you know in the same spot that a slot receiver ends up in. I look at these receivers and Jamal Dean,

80:00Joey Porter, and I'm like, "All right, like Deario Douglas, Hunter Henry, running backs out of the back field, right?" Like this, it makes a lot more

80:08sense.

80:09>> Yeah, I do. With Dobs, there was like some real consternation about his snap rate, which came in at 56%. And I I

80:17would note there he was at 76% route participation, and I think that goes up with AJ Brown out. It >> was 81% with Brown when Brown left.

80:26>> When Brown left. Yeah. Yeah. So, I I think he's like they're going to rotate it more than is ideal, but he's not like

80:33some total part-time player. He's going to be, you know, you're not going to be 95 or even 90% round participation, which you'd prefer, but he'll be out

80:43there plenty. Um, and I think he might get his first catch as a Patriot.

80:51>> Yeah, there are going to be some guys that didn't catch a pass last week.

80:53They're going to catch some.

80:54>> Yeah, I think that I think that's right.

80:56I mean, he c he should have had a guess.

80:59>> He definitely should have.

81:00>> Yeah, we can't love Lindon, but uh he should have had one.

81:04>> What What are your thoughts on uh on the backfield with with Henderson back?

81:08>> I think that this game still sets up probably for Raandre unless they we're going to be still see like a complete

81:14flip and trusting Trayvon and pass protection, right? Like >> one one thing the Steelers do have is still a lot of good pass rushers. So, I

81:20still think and especially Henderson just coming back from an injury, >> right? Right.

81:24>> I still think it favors uh Stephvenson for matchup and then just timing of injury. Uh all those things I think

81:31still favor Stephvenson, but it does lower Stephenson as well because last week he was largely like a volume based play because we knew he had the

81:39backfield to himself in a tough matchup and we kind of remove at least a portion of that element. We probably need a

81:45touchdown out of him this week.

81:46>> I I agree. Yeah. Um, I think he he'll still be ahead, but but he's >> Yeah, I'm kind of an RB3. Uh,

81:57uh, Panthers at Falcons.

82:00Um, Cooper Rush, man.

82:05Not not very good. You know, this is this might be like um some kind of like do you think that Tua realized he was

82:14dead to win, you know, the long-term job that he's basically going to get thrown out there?

82:18>> He knew it.

82:20>> And he's just like, "Fine, let's see how you guys feel about Cooper Rush. Then you're going to you're going to wish you

82:26had me then.

82:28>> What if I don't put any more tape on like what if I don't put any more tape out there?" two. It was his agent was

82:34like, "Don't put any more tape on this."

82:35Like, "We could do something next year."

82:38>> Honest to God, that might be he probably gets a decent, you know, get someone to pay him 10 million.

82:46>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Be a backup. Well, hey, dude. I'll get if you don't put any more tape out, I'll go get you 10 I'll

82:50get you 10 more.

82:51>> Get you $10 million, dude. just >> you like >> Yeah, I think I mean it makes sense.

83:02>> Cooper Rush now started three games since the start of last year and he has 5.7 total fantasy points.

83:08>> That's like that's like impossible as a quarterback to do.

83:11>> The underlying numbers on Cooper Rush are so funny. Like he so he didn't run at all. Like he didn't no scrambles, no

83:19design runs obviously. So he's he has zero rushing attempts. His time to throw was 2.63.

83:26The pressure rate was only 23%. So he's just like getting the ball. Just get the ball out. Like don't even let there be

83:32pressure. When there was pressure it was a disaster. It was a 50% pressure to sack rate. So he's like you have to get

83:39the ball out immediately or you're getting sacked. His A dot was 3.2.

83:44So he's just like super super sh immediate throw crazy shallow. his completion percentage even under those circumstances was horrendous. 55% 14%

83:53below expected. Uh that like it's just like he screamed everything about it is just like incredibly low upside pure pocket passer. The offense is just nuked

84:05by this. Like it's just you can't you cannot have this be your quarterback. Uh which obviously was not the plan. Uh

84:12they had two other plans go south for for the you know them to end up here.

84:16But um the the thing that jumps out to me is kind of the the worst of it is, you know, as far as the fit with Rush um

84:25would would be Kyle Pittz who his ADOT was 27. Um he didn't have a catch. Uh but he I I was hoping maybe Pitts would

84:34be like in an Injoku Fannon kind of role where Injoku's AOT was actually below six between five and six in the the

84:42three years he you know uh over the last three years with the Browns and then Fannon was at 6.0 last year. So I'm like

84:49oh may you know maybe we get like some quick hitting stuff to pits that was really to Bejon. Bean had a 53% target

84:57share. So, you know, and fair enough, Bejian's Bjan's awesome. So, they were getting the ball to him instead and then using Pitts as kind of more of a field

85:05stretcher. That's pretty awful for for Pitts. It's going to be maybe they mixed it up this week, but if that's the plan

85:11again, I mean, it's just really really hard to be a downfield receiver in a Cooper Rush offense, which is the same

85:17problem Tundan has.

85:19>> Yeah. Yeah, and that that was my fear for London, at least until PennX comes back cuz they gave us the inkling in the

85:25preseason that because the addition to of Ali Zakius and Zachariah Branch that he just wasn't he was going to have his

85:32slot roll reduced this year and week one 84% out wide. Uh his highest rate in a game since 2023 and while Cooper Rush

85:42just under center like this just like what are you gonna do, man? Like what are you until Panics comes back? I don't

85:48even like we were debating in our one main like I think we're just going to bench Drake London like we're just not

85:53going to play him. Uh we were debating a couple guys to play him against guys like even Michael Mayer like in FFPC

86:00like you know do we just play that?

86:01>> Play mayor tight end premium.

86:04>> Yeah. I mean that's kind of where we were too and we we had guys in the game last night too so we feel like a little

86:08bit like a luxury but I think that's where a lot of people are like and it sucks. He was probably your second round

86:13pick. Like I get it. It's s but until Pennix comes back like what are what are we really latching on to? Like they

86:20didn't even try to throw like they they literally was like they were like our whole game plan is we're just going to

86:25give the ball to Beijian Robinson a bunch uh near the line of scrim. Bejian Robinson had the highest target share in

86:30the NFL last week and the highest target share for a running back I could find like I I'm sure I'm sure it's some

86:36oldtimey game exists where like a running back had a higher target share than this but like I couldn't find since targets have been tracked a game where a

86:43running back >> were you in the archives? Like dude, I was >> you're up on a ladder pulling.

86:47>> Yeah. I like trying to >> 1934.

86:51>> It just wasn't a real operation. Like like so Beijian Robbins is the only guy I would play for the Falcons and that's

86:58really where I'm at.

87:00>> Yeah. Yeah. I'm with you. I mean the the one thing you have going for you here is that it is the Panthers defense

87:09>> and you have I think you know the Falcons the Falcons understood what the situation they were in was right they

87:17have a minus 17% pass rate of expected they had a 64% expected pass rate which is above the the average expected pass

87:24rate um of 63% and then they had a 47% pass rate so they're just like refusing to pass minus 21% on first down. So, I I

87:34expect them to be pretty similar this week going against this Panthers run defense that just got absolutely torched last week. Off of that though, there is

87:43the potential for some bigger plays, you know, just because the Panthers defense is so bad and they might overplay the run and, you know, so there's at least

87:52like a little potential, but it's >> Yeah, I mean, I think it's more like just hope, you know, if you got if you

87:57got like Drake London in baseball, you're like maybe he ces catches a touchdown that way. I I I agree. I don't

88:03want to play these guys in start, you know, in reddraft leagues where I'm controlling start sit decision. Like man, it's it's really difficult to

88:10actually put them in your lineup with Cooper Rush there. In part because like >> I'd feel a lot better if you had someone

88:17that was bad and willing to take risks.

88:20>> Yes.

88:21>> Like you know if like if it was JJ McCarthy back here, >> maybe Jack Strand get >> I would Yeah. Yeah. I mean I don't I

88:28don't know anything about Jack Strand, but I would like to >> Yeah. I would like to know less about Cooper Rush. Yeah.

88:38Yeah, just like anybody, you know, if you're just like willing to like hold the ball, like do some dumb stuff, that's fine, you know, like throw an

88:46interception, throw a pick six, but like please, you know, hang on to the ball and wait for Drake London to get open.

88:54And I I just don't think Cooper Rush is going to do that. So, uh I I agree with you as sad as it is.

88:59>> Yeah.

89:00>> Um but Bejon set up quite well here. I mean, he's he's going to he's going to have a good game. Even Cooper Rush can't

89:06prevent that. Uh Panthers side, they were they were down a throw last week. 3% pass rate ever expected. They had a minus 4% on first down and and

89:15we've got a long history of Dave Canals wanting to run the ball. So I think they they revert to form here and they go

89:21more runheavy um with Chuba Hubard leading the way. Is that your read as well?

89:27>> Yeah. I mean the the fact that just Cooper Rush is playing just sucks the helium out of the other side too, right?

89:33like cuz even if the Panthers really wanted to to stick with this, like how much are they going to have to? And so

89:40it just points to them being a little more runheavy here. These teams have played some real fun games the past couple years, but they all involve

89:46Michael Penn and right >> that's it's just really tough to say like are we going to get the push? Are we going to get anything from the

89:53Falcons side to drive this into and to be fair, they didn't uh uh the Steelers were still willing to to throw so maybe

89:59they will, right? like the the Steelers are willing to throw on the Falcons. So maybe true, you know, maybe we do get

90:04that here. Um and I do think the Falcons defense like maybe maybe they'll be game maybe it'll be who knows.

90:10>> The Falcons run defense looks good after after facing the Steelers and and mostly Rico Dowel there, but still like it

90:18might it could be the case that the Falcons are just way worse against the pass.

90:21>> Yeah, it very well could be. And Jeff Albert, I think, is a good defensive head coach. They've been able to, you

90:26know, scheme pressure the past two years. So, um, maybe they're able to do that. Maybe it's a little bit under under uh valued the losses that they

90:34had. And, uh, but they they it's just how did the the Falcons score enough points to drive Dave Canales to to want

90:43to keep throwing? And that's why you just go back to Chuba Hubard, uh, who had like another guy that had like a

90:49weird usage share, too, but >> 45% of the attempts, running back, 27.

90:54So, he didn't get% target, which is fine. It's not what people think. Yeah.

91:01>> Yeah. Brooks only had 18% of the carries, so he was clearly ahead of Brooks. Um, and then Brooks had that one

91:07really nice reception, but he only had a 6% target share, so he's also ahead there. So, Chuba looks very much like

91:12the lead back right now. I also think Brooks is ramping up as he returns from injury and gets, you know, some actual

91:18NFL experience where I, you know, I do anticipate that Brooks's role grows, >> but probably not a ton this week. So,

91:26>> um I think Chuba Chuba is a pretty nice play here and looked like he had the short yardage goal line stuff

91:33>> over Brooks for sure.

91:34>> 100% of the snaps in the red zone.

91:35>> Yeah. So, yeah, he's he's you know kind of kind of touchdown dependent here, but it's a good spot to bet on a touchdown.

91:42So, I I think Chuba is a a strong play.

91:44>> Jaylen Coker's coming off a huge game.

91:47Uh, Tero McMillan had a similar target rate, 20 21% to 23% for Coker, 25% target share to 28% for Coker. Cooker

91:56was a lot more efficient, had that big play. Um, but I think McMillan and Coker clearly in a tandem here. I still prefer

92:04McMillan. I think McMillan's really talented, but Coker what an awesome debut. Um, and you know, very much like a a hit already. If you have him, you're

92:14feeling really good about it.

92:15>> Yeah. And then going back to last year, three straight games with a touchdown.

92:18He's gone over 130 receiving yards. He did have an ankle injury uh that they kind of nursed this week. They said, you

92:25know, he's going to play it looks like, but he was in a boot and then they they kind of took a precautionary approach.

92:29So maybe if that's something that flares up in the game or just limits him a little bit, it maybe swings back. The

92:34problem, like we talked about last week, is, you know, these two guys working with Bryce Young, it's there's probably going to be very few games where both

92:42guys get off >> and it's gonna be a little frustrating.

92:47Um because I do think both guys are really good players. I also agree just like I mean I think T was a really good

92:52prospect. Um but on a weekly basis there's gonna be very few times like Bryce Young just supports both these dudes. They're like where they're both

92:59like auto jams and like >> Yeah. Like if it wasn't last week, like when would it be? You know, like Bryce

93:05Young was actually really efficient last week. Um and they had a lot of volume.

93:10So, >> but they're the only guys they don't really throw at anyone else is a good thing. It's uh they had 50% of

93:17the team targets, so at least that's going for us.

93:20>> That is nice. Um Darren Waller only had 42% route participation. Um didn't didn't get a ton of targets, so the

93:28tight end doesn't seem like it's going to be a huge part of the the other guys a lot this week. It's probably not a

93:34huge route game. Well, maybe part participation wise, it'll be okay for Darren Waller, but I think that's probably not a huge

93:41dropback game anyways. So, we probably will see a lot of Tremble and Evans anyways because they're they're going to run more than they did last week where

93:48they just were put in just like this hellish, you know, game state uh right off the rip. And if if Ben Johnson

93:54doesn't go for that, if they don't make that fourth down stop at the the one that Ben Johnson for at his own 20, I

93:59mean, they pro like there was a point in that game where they were going to be in real real trouble.

94:03>> And they still lost by >> Yeah, they still they were I mean >> Yeah, they still lost by 21.

94:10>> Got a hand on the shoulder here.

94:12>> But there was a point Ben Johnson let them back in that game for a second and >> he didn't give a [ __ ] He let them dream

94:18a little because they were going to let you like I don't care if you score. He's like I really don't care if you score.

94:24I don't care. He's I don't care.

94:27>> Oh man. Um All right. Eagles at Titans.

94:31Uh I will say like I the one:00 slate and we'll get there's some there's some fun games on the four o'clock slate. The

94:37one:00 slate. There's not as many, you know, great games uh as there were last week for sure. But >> we're making good time for with these

94:46ones, man. Usually we're like we're like, "Man, we've got five we got five four o'clock apes and we've been talking for two hours." Like

94:52>> I I never I never anytime we're ahead of schedule, I assume that we're going to like, you know, go for a pit stop. We're

95:00we're Yeah, it's a little bit like there's going to be some we're going to pitch up pick up a hitchhiker. There's

95:06always going to be some kind of thing that slows us down a little bit. Uh but yeah, Eagles at Titans. Uh Eagles were

95:15were kind of inconsistent last week. 38% success rate for Herz, but but ultimately efficient. He had 4.6 EPA and

95:23now gets uh a a terrible Titans defense.

95:27It looks like I mean Titans were at least supposed to be good against the run. They weren't last week at all. Uh

95:32and and they look pretty bad against the pass. They had uh 28th uh in in quick pressure rate or sorry 30th in quick

95:41pressure rate, 28th in pressure rate last week. Uh 30th in in pass rush grade. So just like not this, you know, and then

95:50the Titans offense is not going to push you at all. But >> this feels like a the type of game like

95:56you you know you know when you were watching the Bills last night and then it's like this game's over. Like you

96:03we're barely in the second quarter.

96:04game's over. It's like that except then the Lions never push back, you know, like it's like that and then like then

96:10the game is over.

96:12You don't you just don't really get any push back at all. But this that's kind of the setup that I'd be expecting here

96:20uh from from the Eagles and and I think they'll be pretty run based here. You know, even last week there was a little

96:27bit of you know they had a 70% expected pass rate so they they could have gone past heavy. They really didn't. They

96:32pass 64% of the time, minus 5% PE, minus 4% on first down. So, Manion looks to be, I think, a a better offensive

96:39coordinator than Pulo, but understands kind of the general idea here of this Herz offense that's going to be built around the running game and and Barkley

96:49looks great from from the numbers last week. Looked looked back. Um, and if this Titans run defense isn't what we were expecting it to be, then he could

96:58have an awesome game here.

96:59Yeah, e Eagles very interesting game from like even watching it just it's just such pulling teeth with these guys.

97:07Uh it's again like you just they just meander and then hit a big play. Like that's they were they averaged the

97:15fewest yards per play on first down last week. Jaylen Herz had zero passing yards on first down.

97:20>> Whoa. Only the Titans were were wor uh the ahead of them or the I'm sorry the only the Eagles were worse than the

97:27Titans on first down. U they faced third down on 70% of their set of downs. That was uh number one in the NFL in week

97:36one. And >> wait, they face what? Sorry, what' you say?

97:38>> So on their set of they faced third down 70% of their set of downs. That means like each time they had a first and they

97:43got to third down.

97:44>> They got to third down.

97:45>> The league the league average in week one was 43.8%. It's like significant difference. Like this team was really bad on early downs.

97:52>> They were they stuck with like Saquin had a huge run. He had a 42- yard run early in that game and then they did

97:58absolutely nothing on early downs and were very runheavy. Uh Landon Dickerson uh removed himself basically from the game and removed himself basically put

98:07himself on IR. Uh we did have someone reach out to you and I I said they went to Europe for the stem cells and it was

98:12Colombia. Maybe they shouldn't went to maybe he should have went to Europe.

98:14Maybe Europe had a little maybe caught a discount. We did that BOGO Columbia deal, but it was >> you want to get the you want to get the

98:21primo stem cells generally. I would say >> you do. I think you want the good the good stem cells. I don't know if they

98:27paid they paid for the right stem cells, but the offensive line just maybe is never going to be back to like maybe

98:32we'll always be just chasing at Ghost like the Eagles offensive line. It's just never going to be as good as it

98:36once was. I don't think it particularly matters here because like you said, >> they're going to not get pushed and they'll just be able to hand off a bunch

98:43even if it's not working. Like they'll do it. But yeah, >> outside of Saquon though, I'm like not necessarily scared of like any of the

98:50Eagles ceilings though here either because I just don't think they're going to have like an enormous amount of drop backs even if they hit some big plays.

98:58You're probably still starting all your guys and manage stuff, but like I'm probably not going to like go even against the Titans like go to a lot of

99:04these guys outside of Saquon from a DFS perspective because I just I'm not like worried about any of these dudes putting

99:0930 up on me either really.

99:12Yeah, I mean I think Goddard is in a good spot. You know, he had a really nice role last week.

99:17>> I mean, starting him >> and just because of the nature of the position and then them being in that kind of like downhill mo mode mold or

99:26no, sorry, mode, he could be uh he could be a part of, you know, play action, you know, kind of some of the big plays.

99:33They're working off the run game to him.

99:35I think I think he makes a lot of sense in this in this setup. But generally I agree with uh you know this being very

99:43much a Saquon focused script. Of course Herz has upside you know more for for um you know managed stuff.

99:51>> Yeah.

99:51>> But he has upside as a touchdown score obviously with the tush push. So um >> yeah I see this as like an 18 to 24 like

99:59point Jaylen Herz outing like a nice >> Yeah.

100:01>> And go out do do the thing.

100:03>> He could even get to 26.

100:05>> Yeah. Yeah. If you get if Yeah. If you get the if you get the the rushing touchdown added in there, you could do

100:10that. But it's it's probably a game where he throws what like >> 18 to 25 passes like probably uh so you

100:17need the the efficiency for from touchdown equity. Uh probably doesn't have to scramble a lot because you're not getting the the drop backs.

100:24>> Uh but yeah.

100:26>> Yeah.

100:26>> Looks lean though. Like he looks this is like the >> Yeah, he does. Herz always had like that body type where I thought it like last

100:32year maybe was starting to be like a problem for him. like he was carrying too much weight and just like wasn't

100:36fast. He does look leaner this year.

100:39>> He does. Yeah, he got there was one run where he kind of got >> the fact that the Eagles the

100:44Philadelphia Eagles only have a 23 point implied team total against the Titans I think is kind of the lead here.

100:52>> That's fair. Yeah, it's I mean the Titans implied team total of 16.25 though is uh >> Yeah. Yeah.

100:59>> also not great. Um, and I think >> there's a lot of these swaps like we have the where we have like the Jaguars

101:05last week and they still have team totals like in the high 20s or mid to high 20s. The fact that the books have

101:09like come around and be like like the Eagle are the Eagles going to score points like are they down like I would

101:15love because this is a game where the Eagles should >> are they going to put it on someone?

101:18>> They should this would be it like the I want to see the Philadelphia Eagles >> like because it was such again like last

101:24week it was just like do nothing do nothing. Oh, we hit a 60-yard play and that's how we like that's unsustainable

101:29offense. Like >> come out come out here and put it on someone. Like this is a team you should come out and put a state like come here

101:36and just whip these dudes. And uh until that they do that like I'm like always going to have this in the back of my

101:41head like come on man.

101:44>> That's totally fair. I mean, I do think that last week's tendencies were, you know, fairly conservative and that they

101:54could be playing, you know, the stuff you're talking about where it's like they're getting a third down a lot and they've had kind of two mediocre runs.

102:03>> But this is how you lose to bad teams, too.

102:05>> That is how you lose to bad teams. True.

102:07And you know, where's Manion come from?

102:10The Packers, they lose to bad teams.

102:12That's kind of their whole deal. They almost they had no business losing that almost being in the position they were in last week. And if Stefan Diggs

102:18doesn't take the dumbass penalty and they can't go for two uh because he takes the penalty that happened to someone else too uh that got a penalty

102:27and and hurt someone from going for two.

102:28God, I forget what game it was.

102:30>> It was Javvante with >> It was Javvante. Yeah, they would have totally went for two cuz they were down the Yeah, it's like come on guys.

102:38>> That was even more the diggs one. I think like in his mind he like needed to do it because he was like running and

102:44he's like I can't stop myself and then he just like like a child, you know?

102:48He's like, "Oh, yay."

102:51>> But Javvante's one was like more like >> Yeah. Come on, man. Like you're losing, buddy. Like >> Yeah. Don't do that. You know, there was

102:58no Diggs kind of ran out of space and was like, I'm gonna hit the Gold Coast.

103:02What if I jumped into it? That'd be fun.

103:04>> Yeah.

103:07>> Yeah. uh Titan side of this the I mean this is one of those ones we talked about at the top like all right you're

103:17who are you going against you know and >> Yep. Yep.

103:21>> And so this is this is just like it they did not have a tough week one matchup. You're going against the Jets.

103:28You're at home by the way as well. And Ward puts up minus 6.1 EPA.

103:36uh he had a 45% success rate which is which is not good. Uh you know so he's he's turning in this really awful game.

103:46Uh there are some bright spot like if you look at you know like Carninal Tate right Carninal Tate's week one usage for

103:53a rookie wide receiver 92% round participation 22% target share like that's really encouraging if we just stopped there

104:03>> slot rate too like >> the concern for him is that the concern for him was that he would be kind of

104:09Marvin Harris and Tedo McMillan right >> well he's not the X he's the Z >> yeah so like >> the the X is uh Ridley. Ridley wasn't

104:17targeted. He had 64% round participation, zero targets. And then INOR was rotating in with Ridley and uh you know he he had 54% round participation

104:29and an ADOT of 13.3. So I that kind of sacrificial outside wide receiver looks to be uh either Ayam or Ridley who

104:37whoever is out there. But Tate's ADOT was 10. So, kind of in that like a nice sweet spot kind of number one fantasy

104:45receiver. A dot is Yeah, the slot rate is a is a great point. 30 32% I have there. I mean, he if you got any kind of

104:54quality quarterback play, Carninal Tate looks like he's ready to score some fantasy points. So, I I would came away pretty excited about the player who is

105:03Carnell Tate. Now what what is happening like to Carnell Tate is like is see is is horrendous. Like I don't know how

105:11he's going to overcome this. The situation is so much worse than I was hoping. I mean obviously I understood that it could be quite bad,

105:19>> right?

105:19>> But there was, you know, some reason for Ward. I mean some of the film guys insist that Ward's actually good. I'm

105:27starting to think they're wrong. But but you know they're >> but these six plays with these six plays in isolation.

105:35>> Yeah.

105:37And then uh the Titans were also they had a plus 6% pass rate over expected.

105:41They passed 80% of the time. Yeah.

105:44>> So you do have the potential for some pass volume here. Like there are there's actually again like the whole situation

105:49for Tate really comes down to like can you get anything out of Cam Ward this week? The answer is probably no. this

105:58this Eagles defense is gonna make that very very difficult I'd say.

106:03>> Yeah, 100%. It's just hard to have any faith going against Vickfangio. Like this is where it turns on. And Brian

106:08Brian Dable I thought watching that game like he's running he's just too cute for the situation. Like buddy we've got like

106:16we got to work on getting like >> what was that flip to himself? What was what happened there?

106:20>> But like we got to work on getting like basic plays right with this unit. Yeah.

106:25>> Like you can't be trying to run exotics with with these guys right now. Like what are we doing, man?

106:32>> Would you call this exotic smashmouth?

106:33Was that what this was?

106:36>> It was I don't know what you would call it. This is like when you go to like the pet store and like they you buy like a

106:42bird and you get sold like it's like some kind of like toucan from it's just like painted feathers or something like

106:47when you get in front of the store like it's just a a parakeet. And like you were told it was some you were told it

106:53was some like bird and your friend comes over like no man that's parakeet like tell like it's it was just like this this is

107:02awful man. This is just terrible. And against this defense they're just not going to move the ball in the back field

107:08like you said. They they didn't try to run. They couldn't run. They're not going to do anything against the Eagles.

107:13It's >> I do I do like that this team seems to like very quickly be embracing its fate as a garbage time passing offense,

107:23right? Like just don't even try to run.

107:25Just chuck it >> inefficiently most of the time, but like maybe that leads to to some >> like I don't even want big plays. I was

107:33about to say to some big plays. I don't No, don't even have big plays. just like get to the point in the game where the

107:39defense is vacated the middle of the field because because those completions keep the clock running, but like they're they get there so quickly. They're like

107:48there's actually still 10 minutes left in the in the third quarter and they're they're already playing pre-event. Like that's where I want that's that's the

107:56upside case I think uh for these the next couple weeks. I mean maybe Ward can take a step forward over over time in

108:02this offense. Pretty skeptical and it's not going to be this week. No. And if you're looking down the pipe here, I

108:08mean, you have Eagles this week, then you go at the Giants, which again, you're probably not going to squint and say anything positive because you just

108:14scored 10 points against the Jets. Then they go at Baltimore, then Houston. Like it's >> the Giants game. Maybe >> maybe

108:22>> their defense looks pretty bad.

108:24>> Yeah. So like, but like you don't have a lot of windows here even where you're like pretty bullish.

108:28>> Although the Giants defense might not be bad. They might just have had a bad game against the Cowboys because they got

108:32some dudes on the defensive line. So >> yeah, I mean the secondary I think is probably going to be a problem, but it

108:38will won't we'll get exploited by this outfit. But then like Ravens Texans are not expecting anything. So like we're going a good month here where we're not

108:45>> really anything.

108:48>> Yeah. I mean >> it could be one of these situations too where Cam Ward like maybe it's a Zack Wilson situation, right? Like where he's

108:54either or maybe it's a Sam Darnold situation like there's a like there's two outcomes here. I think right now the state of this franchise it looks pretty

109:02bleak like that he's going to be around like they're going to have to probably reassess after this year will they not

109:07like they might have the first pick.

109:10>> I think they should have reassessed after this year. I thought Cam Ward's >> Yeah. I mean was there was no quarter

109:16but there was no quarterback. So >> there was no quarterback. Yeah.

109:19>> But I mean they you know I think I would have like >> I was shocked no one was trying to trade

109:25for Penn. I thought if Pennix and maybe he wasn't available, but maybe you know they bring in Tua and Tua was kind of

109:31seen as the as the starter there when they when they brought him in and everything and it's like >> he also had the ACL so

109:37>> so what I mean by mean like you know what I'm saying >> that's how you get him the ACL is why

109:44the buying windows open the ACL is bullish for you get the discount.

109:48>> Yeah, it's bearish for them. They're worried about it. You're not.

109:52>> But I think the situation is bleak. I do think for Cam Ward though, I think we're probably leaning towards drawing dead in

109:58his current environment to like like like I said, does now what path does he take? Does he take the Zach Wilson path

110:03or does he take the Darnold path?

110:07>> The Zach Wilson path is a lot more common. That's also the Trey Lance path, Anthony Richardson path, right? Like which is, you know, we probably the path

110:15J McCarthy's on. Yeah. like that is the the Josh Rosen path like you know that's what that path normally the the Darnold

110:22one is a huge outlier Gino Smith also a huge outlier >> significant outlier as well >> yeah so I think and you know in fairness

110:31to Ward like th this offensive line >> yeah terrible >> is bad you know and they they've invested a lot in it but it's still

110:40awful so you know they have their quick pressure rate they rank 28th in preventing quick pressure. Um, they got blitz at the seventh highest rate last

110:50week against the Jets.

110:51>> Jets.

110:52>> Yeah. So, I mean, quick pressure wrecks plays and if you're already struggling and then you have to deal with a ton of

111:00quick pressure, that's going to be a real problem. They're 30th in in pass block win rate right now and they were

111:06expected to have a a bad offensive line.

111:08So, yeah, it's it's definitely not like entirely his fault that it looks this bad. At the same time, >> would be better with Trabiscy, right?

111:19Like Trabiscy, everything improves.

111:21>> Yeah. It's also what sends you down to like you can't excel either, though.

111:25Like you can't just like the situation's probably hurting him, but it's going to just create it's just going to compound what he's doing badly.

111:32And and the thing that's that's tough for Ward and really why you know this situation if you if you did want to kind of make

111:40the pro ward case, it's like what he does well, they're almost like trying to hide because what he does well is is

111:47like he can if you give him time, he can survey the field and he can and he's he's down to throw downfield and put his

111:55guys in position to win. But and I mean it's kind of like Darnold, right? Like you can't you wouldn't you wouldn't

112:02expect Sam Darnold to be good in this situation.

112:05>> I mean maybe you would maybe he's grown enough to where he wouldn't look like this. But like >> the idea with Sam Darnold is he's got a

112:12crazy good arm.

112:14>> Maybe limit the drop backs though. Try to create some big plays. You know, use play action to your advantage. Use a

112:20runheavy attack and protect him well.

112:23And if you don't do those things, then it's probably not going to go great. And so, yeah, I mean, Ward, it's just

112:30I mean, this Eagles defense is maybe we're maybe equals defense is the is the play in this in this match up from a DFS

112:37perspective.

112:38>> I mean, honestly, probably. Well, you could say you can correlate with Saquon if you want to correlate.

112:41>> Correlate with Saquon.

112:42>> Yeah, that's old. That's old school.

112:44>> Yeah, that's you could do it with Bucks and Bucky Irving, too. Uh, plus they correlate names.

112:49>> Uh, that's true.

112:50>> Yeah, great point. Uh, I I will note I mentioned >> Yeah. Find my optimizer. Yeah.

112:58Uh, Wando Robinson, I I thought his underlying stuff was also fairly bullish. 87% round participation despite playing 80% of his snaps in the slot. I

113:06mean, that that is partly because they were they were constantly throwing, but like guess what? That's what the Titans offense is going to be. And then 22%

113:13target share. So, you know, Tate and Robinson, I think, are are in a nice spot here where they're going to play a

113:18ton.

113:19>> Um, yeah, we had >> be a big part of the offense. If we had just like a functional vet, would those

113:24dudes might be able to do something for us, >> right? They're in a nice spot again within the context of being on the

113:29Titans.

113:33But yeah, um Gunnar Helm 56% round participation. He's like, you know, we're we're we're done with this. This isn't this isn't

113:44>> doing anything for us. And Tony Pard uh >> dead >> combined with Taj Spears for 10 carries.

113:50Yeah, they had 10 running back runs, the fewest in the NFL.

113:53>> That's Yeah.

113:54>> Not going to get it done for us.

113:56>> Not going to get it done. All right.

113:57Packers Jets, what what are your how how real are the Jets? Are you uh are you buying this?

114:03>> We talked about their offense last week.

114:04Now, the defense I still have questions about they again, we just came off the Titans and talked about them. I think

114:10that it will the Packers will if they come out and have another good defensive performance, I'll start to believe. I'm thinking a lot what happened last week

114:17is more of a statement of the Tennessee offense versus what the the Jets defense is truly going to be. And I know that

114:23they made a lot my Ray Summer Emerland who I work actually does our defense likes their defense like likes their ads. So he's like they were going to be

114:30better than you thought. But I'm like were they going to be this good? Like I don't think so. Uh so we'll remains to

114:34be seen. But the Jets offense was one I thought was gonna be very like have a a lot higher floor than people thought and

114:41then be pushed into some game environments to where it could have been fun. And last week obviously wasn't one where they just got the turtle and then

114:48just run the piss out of the ball in the second half. But I do think this spot here they will be pushed to throw the

114:54ball more and could have a lot more success because the Packers defense I also don't think is very good especially without Micah Parson. So this could be a

115:02fun sneaky game. I know this is on like big weather alert. I'm not someone that does weather stuff. This is one that's

115:08come up though for like some kind of storm or something that's supposed to come through. But on paper, objectively, I think this game looks pretty damn fun.

115:17Yeah. I mean, the the one thing I'll say with where I'm maybe like a little bit less excited about this game is the Jets had

115:25a minus 9% pass rate over expected, which led to a 43% pass rate. And you what kind of tends to

115:34happen generally is like when a team has an expected pass rate that's super low, they don't tend to be like really

115:41conservative relative to that pass rate because like teams kind of have a sense of like, hey, maybe we shouldn't pass only like 40% of the time, you know?

115:49>> Yeah.

115:50>> Not the Jets. The Jets are like 43% pass rate. Great. And I was kind of thinking that Frank Reich might bring a little

115:56bit more of, you know, some balance to the offense compared to where they were last year. And and that ultimately could

116:02prove true in certain game environments, but I could see them being really conservative here. And I could see the Packers being pretty conservative uh as

116:12well. They they had a minus 3% POE last week and minus 3% on first and 10 and have a long history of being overly

116:21runheavy. So, you know, if both teams are >> well, they they might not be able to run. They did go against the Vikings, so

116:30I I'm not I'm not convinced that >> that they can't run the ball, especially against the Jets. Like that >> they're going to try.

116:36>> They couldn't run at the end of last year. That's the thing. They probably will try more, but that this offensive

116:42line is awful.

116:43>> It is bad. It is bad, but I mean that affects the the ability to pass the ball, too. But we've seen this scheme

116:49like the the Shanahan coaching tree has been able to coach scheme around offensive lines. Like I'm not as worried about the passing stuff

116:56>> in general because I think that's just like what they do. Like we saw even last week, I mean the explosives were still

117:02there. Like they like they were designing stuff for the pass game.

117:05>> Um and like I said by pro by proxy they're going to run more here. I think that have more handoffs, but I don't

117:10know if they like can I don't know if they're at any point going to be a good running team. And maybe that's just me

117:14because I'm I'm hungry on my priors.

117:16This is like how I felt about the Packers coming in is like I don't think I think they're going to be a a more

117:21pass heavy version what we saw and then week one I'm like cool but then yeah you try to factor in Vikings. Uh but I don't

117:27think any of their running backs are particularly good. Uh and I know the offensive line isn't good but you know who I know is good. Jordan Love,

117:34Christian Watson, Tucker Craft, maybe Matthew Golden.

117:38>> Maybe Matthew Golden. So, I think they I think they have I think they're going to be forced to at least until this Josh

117:44Jacobs stuff gets resolved and maybe it it doesn't it doesn't and we don't like I think they're the strength of this

117:50>> going to get resolved at this point.

117:51Don't you think?

117:51>> Yeah. I mean, but just >> I think it gets I think he misses six games or whatever whether it's a

117:56>> but these are the best like these are the best players in their offense are these the guys we just rattled off.

118:02>> Yeah. Yeah, and Golden um 2.38 yards per out run and he had like per PFF he had 26 expected points in that game. He

118:11scores 15.5. So, you know, disappointing there. Left 10.5 points on the field. Uh I think that was the most of the week.

118:18But you know what? Like if he keeps getting a ton of volume, he's going to he's going to have some really awesome

118:24days. 28% first read target rate, which is super elite. Now, that goes to what I was saying earlier where Jordan Love had

118:31the highest first read attempt rate of the of the week. It was just to get the ball out very quickly. And so, Christian

118:37Watson, Jaden Reed, and Matthew Golden all saw a lot of first read targets as a result. But still, I mean, for him to be

118:45included in that is is really bullish.

118:48And Reed was at 63% round participation with Matthew Golden at 87%. So, he's clearly ahead of Reed in terms of the

118:54playing time. He had a 12.2 two ADOTs who's getting targeted downfield. Um and then you know Watson had a great game,

119:02had that awesome play. Uh his ADOT was was 16 and maybe isn't going to be like ultra ultra deep, but he does look like

119:09kind of the more true field stretcher.

119:11So Golden is your intermediate outside wide receiver and you know maybe he's got a little more more juice than than Romeo Dobs in that role. like he could

119:21be this Golden looks like and not a guy I was taking a lot of but Golden looks like he could be a pretty big hit where

119:26he was going in the kind of late single digits. Uh it was pretty encouraging to see his role week one.

119:31>> Yeah. And I same I didn't really love him as a prospect but I was just drafting him on principal because I said

119:36like I was playing the Packers through they're they're going to throw more. So I just was a proxy taking Golden just

119:42like not being bullish on the player but just taking a cheap player in an environment by and uh yeah so I'm happy.

119:48I'm already I'm I'm putting him in lineups this week like you know oh yeah I'm going to get him in I'm getting him

119:52active right away whereas I didn't need like uh to wait. I'm a little concerned big picture about Jaden Reed and it's

120:00because I think the guys surrounding him are a problem for him. Um I think when we get to 10,000 foot view and we're in

120:07January, I think we're going to look back and all these Packers guys are probably going to be like 17 to 22%

120:12target share guys uh if they're all healthy. But my my problem with Jay Reed is early in his career he was we always

120:19known he's been like an 11 personnel player but early in his career he was like he would get vertical targets and

120:23he was like a high a dot slot player and I don't know if we're going to get that version back now because the other guys

120:30do earn like Craft Watson and even Golden I think are just earning more downfield targets than him and it's only one game but this goes into last year

120:38too like his ADOT completely shrunk and it's uh something I'm just monitoring uh early in the season because if he's if

120:46he's not going to get like that high juice of depth of target, I don't think he's going to have the raw target share

120:50to maybe overcome that. Uh he's going to look a lot like Packers Khil Shakir and maybe not even this version.

120:57>> That's a fair comp. Yeah.

120:58>> Like not even this version of Khlo Shakir because the bear the Bills look like they're just ready to wing this

121:02downfield. But >> right, >> but I worry that he's going to get like access to like the targets we want a

121:08limited player in terms of route participation to get. That seems that Yeah, I could totally see that playing out like that. Uh I will note he had 13

121:16expected points in this game.

121:17>> Yeah.

121:18>> Um and then scored five. So, you know, he he also >> seven targets.

121:22>> Yeah, he had he had a lot of volume. Uh Watson was the guy who actually paid off on it. But

121:27>> um >> and he's that type of play. He's just like that's what you get. You're going to have games or Watson. That's why the

121:33whole thesis behind him, right? This is the thesis. This was the thesis.

121:37>> Totally. Yeah.

121:39I I think Reed Reed I mean 24% targets per out run he he will he will have better days than he did last week. Last

121:47week was obviously disappointing. And then the route participation for him I think is is concerning. Tucker Craft by the way only at 48% but looked awesome

121:55when he was on the field. He's obviously going to ramp up from there and I think he will make you know the bullishness on

122:02Golden um and the bearishness on Reed.

122:05you know, he kind of he kind of moves things in a bearish direction for both players.

122:08>> Mhm.

122:09>> Where it's just like he can play and he's going to play more often as the season goes on. So, it does this is an

122:15offense that's going to work to get the ball to its best players more than it used to, but there's four of them. Like

122:22the dumb stuff they were doing were like bring on Bo Melton and stuff. Yeah. Like like glad you're not doing that anymore,

122:28but you still do have four guys here.

122:30So, um it's going to be hard for it to be concentrated.

122:34Yeah, for sure. Like I said, I think when we do get to the end, it like the target like no one's going to blow

122:39anyone away, I think, in terms of target share.

122:42>> But I do think there's efficiency here for these guys and and a chance for just more overall routes and throws because

122:47of the offense, you know, barring how we see this team develop when they eventually get Jacobs back.

122:54I haven't looked at Lloyd, you know, in DFS or anything and probably like on DraftKings, he's not a great fit, but I

122:59would I would say like I think this is a bounceback spot for him where he had he had he was running back eight in Carrie

123:06Sher last week and if this ends up being I mean this being like a high-scoring game, if the Jets offense is a little bit for

123:16real is not a bad thing, you know, um I could see Lloyd punching in a touchdown or two like he he looks to be pretty

123:25ahead of Chris Brooks when it comes to actually carrying the ball. Brooks had 56% of the snaps.

123:30>> Brooks is George Hani.

123:32>> Brooks is George Helani. Yeah, but Lloyd I mean Lloyd looked like a much worse version of Jarian Price.

123:38>> 100%.

123:40>> But he was playing the Vikings. So, I think going from we it is way too soon to say like we know anything for sure

123:47about Marshon Lloyd, but we do know that he just got a bunch of carries >> and we do know that he plays for a team

123:52that that could score a lot of points this week and that likes to run the ball too much.

123:57>> So, I mean, Lloyd >> could be a turnaround.

124:02>> Don't don't I would not panic on Marshall Lloyd. I have him as a high-end RB3. You know, he's he's going to need

124:07to score a touchdown, I think. But, >> uh I I do think that's quite >> possible. And you're right about the

124:12game environment if the Jets are not that good. Uh which we don't know obviously because because week one say they >> Jets could stink. They're the Jets.

124:22>> They are the Jets.

124:24>> Like the Raiders the Raiders beat the Patriots in week one last year, right?

124:28>> Oh yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Uh yeah. My thesis behind the Jets was like Gino Smith hyper sensitive to pressure was going to

124:34be in a spot with a better offensive line. um y >> you know and has good players around him like in Bree Hall and Garrett Wilson who

124:40I still believe are very good at football >> and it's like oh this could work and then you had good young players right

124:45like you're like oh Adai Mitchell could be something Omar Cooper is something Kenny something like you're like this could work like this could actually kind

124:51of like >> work and so I'm still open to that idea and that's kind of where I say like this game could still be fun because if the

124:57Jets are competent and playing above base rate and then the Packers are are are pushed and they're throwing like we got fun it could it could be fun.

125:06>> It could be fun. I I I think this game has some kind of I'm not sure what we're going to get because I could see it

125:11being really kind of gross. I could see it being 13 like >> totally. I was going to say a lower score.

125:18>> Did you see the Did you see the Jets ran a play at five tight ends last week?

125:21>> No. God.

125:23>> Yeah. They ran a play with five tight ends.

125:24>> That's how they have to get Mason Taylor on the field.

125:26>> Sadique was in the back field. I mean, they had everyone all I didn't even know a team had played a bunch. I didn't even

125:31know who had a team like who has five tight ends to play.

125:34>> Yeah, Rucker. Rucker. Uh I I think I can only go three deep on Jets tight ends.

125:39I'm not sure who the fourth and fifth were.

125:41>> Um >> it's just like what is happening out here? But uh yeah, you know, >> do they still have Zack Coun the Galani

125:47Woods? Gelani Woods there. Andrew Beck.

125:51Uh >> Andrew Beck. Okay.

125:54the the Smith profile. He had 3.12 seconds time to throw last week, which is not quick, but then a 6.7 ADOT and 4%

126:04deep pass rate. He didn't have a single pass attempt over the middle of the field that was 10 plus yards downfield.

126:10So, >> yeah, it's but it's it's a point.

126:13>> That's all we want.

126:13>> It's old man point guard. He's taking his time. There's some there's some extra dribbles, you know? It's like the guy he's he's kind of got to put it

126:21between his legs a couple times and you're just like everyone's sort of just sort of like can you can you pass it and

126:26then he passes it but it's not cool. He passes just like a little he disses it off to the guy behind the three-point

126:32line. You're like great you could have done that sooner.

126:37>> So that's that's the that's the style we're dealing with and it's a style that's susceptible to a better defense.

126:43Now the Packers, you know, without Parsons don't look like a great defense and maybe he gets away with it here. But

126:48I I think we are going to see some Gino gets exposed games.

126:52>> Oh yeah.

126:52>> Because of his style and then also like >> uh I mean the Jet the Jets offensive line is much better than the Raiders

127:00offensive line. So he he probably gets away with it more often. But yeah, depending on kind of how if there's some

127:06breakdowns on the offensive line or the defensive line's just playing out of its mind in a given game, Gino's going to

127:12going to have some pretty he's got a low floor in any given >> 100%. I I my whole thing is I just want

127:18him to make Garrett Wilson and Bree Hall good fantasy players.

127:21>> Me too. Me too.

127:23>> It's just what that's all that's really my that's all I want.

127:25>> And Omar Cooper when he gets back uh looked kind of cool until he hurt his ankle on the one play he got. Um that

127:33was fun for about a split second. Yeah, Bree Hall uh didn't dominate from a but this is the opposite of um the Saints

127:43stuff where like hey might want to use the rates here because they ran a ton of plays. Bree Hall had 22 carries last

127:52week. So the the rate I think kind of undersells like he had 56% of the attempts.

127:58>> Yeah, but they >> but he had 22 carries. Y >> that's that's pretty nice. Um so there, you know, now maybe if they run the ball

128:07a lot less, he'll only have like 12 carries and this the rate will stay the same, but it gets to the point where

128:12like if you're giving Bree Hall 22 carries, it it really does make sense to like give him a breather, bring in

128:16Brailen Allen and let him let him run too. And so there, you know, there's going to be a bit of a committee here,

128:22but I think Hall might have maybe more of a control. You know, he's running back 16 right now in in Carrie Sher.

128:27think he might be kind of closer to 12 or something like that over the course of the year when they're actually

128:33running a little less. So, we'll see.

128:35But, uh, two yards per route run for Hall got targeted. Uh, he had 9% of the the team's targets. Does have, you know,

128:43a a receiving role and maybe the Jets have to pass more, which would actually be pretty bullish for him. So, looked

128:49good for him. Garrett Wilson uh, dominated targets. 33% targets per out run, 30% target share. So that was that was what we were expecting.

128:57>> Yeah. Would have looked a lot better if there was any push, I think, for Garrett Wilson. 100%.

129:02>> Yeah. Yeah. Um All right. So, we're moving to the later games here.

129:09What do you think about the Jaguars, >> buddy?

129:12>> As our wagon of the week, >> I I could probably get on board.

129:18>> I mean, it's a it's a tougher matchup.

129:20>> Here's the thing is, are we considering the wagon a top down? everyone gets a piece of the pie or is this just like a

129:27a Trevor Lawrence uh Parker Washington wagon?

129:32>> I just think this is a this is like so cuz you know another consideration was the Cowboys but the Cowboys weren't

129:39they're coming off a loss. So I feel like to be a wagon >> you need to be rolling along >> and then you need to be you you need to

129:48be steamrolling >> the people. Now also consider I don't really know what a wagon is. This is a term that we've stolen from a lot of

129:55other people who kept saying it about the cults last year. So, I'm actually not sure what the definition is, but I

130:01think it should be it it it conotes momentum, right? Like there should be like a >> you need Yeah.

130:08>> Yeah. So, >> you can't you can't hit the gas on a wagon, >> right? Right. You need to already be

130:14barreling kind of at a fast rate and then like anything in your way like I can't stop. I'm I'm a wagon, bro.

130:21>> Right. Yeah. You can't stop me. You can't stop me. We're already moving.

130:25>> We're already moving.

130:26>> So, yeah, >> I think that's what it is. But that, you know, the Jaguars kind of fit that bill.

130:31And I think >> I don't think the Broncos are stopping them, dude. The Broncos have, you know, we thought a pretty good defense, but

130:37this this defense did not actually look very good last week. And frankly, as much as I do think that that Trevor

130:45Lawrence and Park Washington will have a good game here, I think the run game could could get gone. I think Tutin

130:50Rodriguez like downhill against this Denver Broncos run defense that did not stop Kenneth Walker at all. And then you have uh the the Jaguars leaning into the

131:00run last week with a 46% pass rate.

131:02Obviously, they were in straight up garbage time last week. So, you know, they're I'm not saying they're super conservative, but they will run the ball

131:10if as needed. And this could be a game where they're going to be efficient through the air, but also really efficient on the ground and and having a

131:19a balanced attack. So, it's not just uh Trevor and and Washington, but but also uh maybe a little toot.

131:27>> What do you What do you say?

131:28>> Could be. Yeah, I can get on board.

131:30>> All right.

131:32In in that case, the Jaguars are our wagon of the week.

131:36>> This is our wagon, baby. The wagon of the week.

131:38>> The team's just rolling right now. This team is just they're wagging. They are wagon. We're to have a nice old

131:44picnic. Load that wagon up. Like we're whatever you need to put in that wagon.

131:48>> They're a wagon.

131:49>> Yeah. This is our wagon of the week, baby. What does that mean? What does wagon mean?

131:54>> Still makes me smile. Still makes me smile.

131:56>> What does wagon mean? Is a great way to >> We're still just debating it a year later.

132:00>> We still don't know.

132:04>> But it doesn't matter because the Jags are the wagon of the week. What What are your thoughts on the Jags offense after

132:08week one?

132:08>> Uh man, smoke show, man. Absolutely.

132:11They are a wagon. Uh but we you know when they had the draft and I was critical of this myself and you know

132:17when they had the quotes from from James Gladstone they take you know boricature in the second round and they're uh they

132:23take co criticize that >> and and you know but you know he's just like but his his the way he um

132:30approached it when asked the question he's like well the league is doing it so like we thought we should do and I was

132:35like wait that's not like just because a bunch of teams are doing it doesn't mean you should do it but they did. They came

132:40out.

132:40>> That's how we started doing the wagon thing, which is fine for a bit, >> but it's not a great way to draft.

132:46>> But dude, they came out last week. They They were in 12 personnel, a league high 39% of the time. Uh they uh in 2025, it

132:55was 18%. Trevor Lawrence had his highest play rate under center of his career. He used play action uh at the his highest

133:01rate in a game since 2024. Like they kind of used they kind of did the [ __ ] like with the tight end stuff that they

133:07should do. Uh, so I can't even criticize him. I can't Yeah, I can't I take it back. They looked absolutely incredible.

133:15Uh, and again, Browns, new defensive coordinator, Buzz Show, but like that's what you want a wagon to do is to roll

133:21over those teams. Uh, the Denver Browns are on a short week. Trevor Lawrence went into Denver last year, so they scored 34 points. Trevor Lawrence had 30

133:30fantasy points in that game. Uh, Denver, I think, does have a run problem, uh, run defensive problem. So, because they lose two guys, they lose John Franklin

133:40Myers and then Jonathan Cooper uh due to the off field stuff. They they're small.

133:46They're they're def their whole thing is predicated like they they have small defensive linements. It's why they always struggle with the Bills, right?

133:52Like when the Bills play them is because the Bills have a big gnarly offensive line and they're all bigger. All their

133:56defensive linemen are like 300 or sub 300. Like they don't have a lot of beef.

134:01That's how they build that's how they built their defense. And they did actually play the run better than it looked in the box score last week, but

134:10Kenneth Walker just like absolutely broke. So, dude, we're not talking about that because they don't play on the slate. Kenneth Walker had 16 force mixed

134:18tackles. Last year, Kareem Hunt led the team with 16 missed tackles.

134:24>> Oh my god. Oh my god. That's crazy.

134:27>> Kenneth Walker had >> one game.

134:29>> Kenneth Walker had two 20 yard runs.

134:32Last year the Chiefs running back said one 20 yard run like like but I do think that if if they're gonna play big the

134:40Jags that I think they will have a chance to run in this game a little bit uh because like again they added more

134:45beef. They're going to play a little heavier. The Broncos are light but Parker Washington man that Parker Washington.

134:52>> Yeah he looked great. He really looked great.

134:55>> Trevor Lawrence was the lead. I mean Trevor Lawrence dude he was throwing balls that were like don't throw that man. He just like got

135:02just laser beams.

135:04>> I will say Brian Thomas also looked good.

135:06>> Yeah, >> he got banged up. That's my I hate that Parker Washington because Myers and Thomas are both They're going to play,

135:11but they're they're both kind of banged up.

135:14>> Yeah, Myers is dealing with this thumb thing. Not super serious, but you know, he also just wasn't particularly good last week. So, it does look like

135:25>> touchdown. Yeah, but so did uh who's the other guys? Josh Cameron.

135:30>> Yeah, Josh Cameron.

135:31>> Yeah. So, uh but yeah, I mean it's I thought to I thought Thomas looked good and was getting targeted um which

135:40was encouraging, but but Washington clearly the the top target here um and is in his setup pretty well. He played 50% of his snaps in the slot. It could

135:50be kind of like a um last week. I mean, it could be kind of a situation where do you think they're kind of bringing him

135:57in the slot? How do you think they attack this, you know, with Patan and and the Broncos pass defense, which I

136:02mean, the pass defense held up pretty well last week, actually.

136:05>> Yeah, I mean, they're going to get challenged downfield a lot more than m, you know, Mahomes did than a really

136:11weird game for the Chiefs passing game.

136:13Like a really weird game. Uh Mahome I mean Mahomes had the lowest uh yards air yards per completed pass in the NFL last

136:21week and was still like 12% below pass rate completion like >> a really really weird dynamic uh that occurrence there. Uh they're not on this

136:31slate but uh I I just like Parker Washington. His versatility just opens him up uh to get away from Certan probably the most of the three. But I'm

136:39curious to see if Denver kind of takes really because he he ate their lunch last year. he had 145 yards and a

136:44touchdown against them. I wonder if they're just saying like maybe we want to make the other guys beat us at this

136:50point. I wonder if other teams will start doing that even to a degree. But I think I'm just so in love with like what

136:57Liam Cohen is doing that I don't know.

136:59I'm I just have I have more faith in Liam Cohen like making adjustments than anyone against him at this point. So,

137:06even that game against the playoff game against the Bills last year, they had the the fourth down if like Trevor Lawrence doesn't slide short of that,

137:12like that game's in a completely different game state and they maybe are pull that off and they turnover, but like we have like a whole half season of

137:19a sample and then coming into this year they pick up right where they left off.

137:22Like, >> yeah, >> man. Dude, they they look like an absolute wagon.

137:27>> And here's the thing, like Thomas, so 14.7 AOT, he had 2.86 yards per route run. I don't think you can like not

137:35treat him as the number one if you're the Broncos, >> right?

137:40>> Which helps Washington from a fantasy point of view, right? Like if if you wanted to, you know, say who's the most

137:47likely to if you were taking it from like who's the most likely to have the most yards in this game, >> let's try to take that guy away. You'd

137:54probably go let's take away Parker Washington. Right.

137:57>> That creates a real downside for the Broncos because Brian Thomas is a big play outside receiver.

138:04You want Riley Moss on Brian Thomas J.

138:06>> No. No. I don't think they're going to do that. I mean, I think that's some of the value to um I guess, you know, some

138:12of the value to the offense that Brian Thomas brings.

138:16>> Are you saying Parker Washington's a Brian Thomas merchant?

138:21I I mean I think Brian Thomas helps open up the field for I think I'm saying that Brian Thomas is like fancy Alec Pierce

138:28but u offense like what he >> for the offense.

138:30>> Yeah. Yeah. And we saw that at the end of last year like when these they had these three guys and they committed to

138:34these three guys being the receivers.

138:37That was the role that was the role he was in.

138:39>> Yep. Um All right. I'm going to throw it to you on the back field and then I got to I think my wife's locked out here.

138:46>> Oh yeah. Go ahead. I'll talk about the back field a little bit and then you'll probably come in.

138:49Uh generally, you know, you have to feel really good, I think, about what you saw from Toutin in week one. There is some

138:56volatility here in terms of roles, but if you were bullish on Toutin, the player and the offense, you I think you

139:01came away on the positive end. 16 touches, 88 yards. He did only have the one catch, but he completely dominated touches versus Chris Rodriguez. It's

139:10just that Chris Rodriguez played enough of the ancillary role stuff to be like an immediate thorn, but I think that's >> and Abdullah played.

139:18>> Yeah. But that's something I think that well if Totin is doing what he did in week one where like he was already

139:23getting this many touches and he's creating this many yards after contact.

139:26He's constantly getting yards after contact.

139:28>> Yeah.

139:29>> Like this I think there short term I still think like this is a little bit of a headache because Rodriguez is playing

139:34in the pass game and near the goal line.

139:37Although they only had one goal line touch. I still think there could be some fluidity there. U but I you you feel

139:45good about what you saw from Tuton. like he looked the part and the offense is an absolute like that looked the part. So I

139:51think you're still like big picture the long view you should be optimistic of what this means big picture for Tuton even if maybe these first few weeks he's

139:59in like a role where it's like rushing efficiency only uh because I think that he proved that he's he still he's a good

140:05player. It's a bet on talent play with Tuton and it's ambiguous backfield. Take the talented guy and the and then then

140:12when that hits it can be really really high upside. It's basically the Chase Brown bet but you had to pay you know

140:19like three three four rounds of a premium on it because because of how hard Brown hit the last time we had this

140:25>> type of bet. And it's in a potentially elite offense as well which is why I think Tutin was never cheap. But yeah, I

140:32mean today or not today, oh right after the game, Liam Cohen talked up Bashalt Tutin with his yards after contact.

140:40Thought, you know, was talking about how he's trusting his reads, getting outside on some of the outside zone runs. Just uh he's like, I think maybe we could

140:46have gotten more to that. Um we executed a screen to him as well. He's like, I thought he really showed up. Then like

140:52later in the week, he's talking about how he ran he ran his tail off, man. He ran hard. I don't think he missed many

140:58reads. I thought he ran through arm tackles a ton.

141:01um talking about how he wants him to get in space a little more, but like basically did everything that they were

141:05looking for him. And then he also was talking about uh yesterday about how he's breaking tackles, falling forwards.

141:13That is just something that is insane, that is innate. Um there's certainly an element of that to it. It's also credit to his hard work in

141:20the weight room. He's in the facility all the time working on his body, getting strong, getting faster. So, he's just like repeatedly all week um just

141:29talking up to. So, I think Tutin is going to get like one reason that I care about rushing efficiency, which you know

141:37we know is not like especially predictive of itself.

141:42>> But coaches do like when the players perform well. And so if you've got a guy who was inefficient and then another guy

141:49who was was efficient and in a way that was very consistent and he had he in the rushards overexpected model he was

141:56running back seven in success rate there 53% mark and he was very consistent last year as well. It's ironically been the

142:05big play stuff with him that hasn't hit yet but he was running back five and elusive rating uh last week breaking a

142:12breaking a ton of t tackles. So that showed up in the metrics and then and then you're hearing the coach being

142:17like, I thought he was really consistent and he broke a ton ton of tackles. It's like, well, that's like statistically accurate. That is what

142:25>> he got 16 touches. That's why he got 16 touches, man.

142:28>> Yeah. So, I think, you know, he's going to I think he's going to see more work and probably pretty soon, you know, I

142:35think in this game we could see him get, you know, a step towards being the lead back. Now ultimately I think he's going

142:41to probably be in kind of a Bucky Irvineses, you know, role where he's like more of a 1A. He's I I don't expect like we're

142:49getting 80% snapshot Balt tootin at any point.

142:51>> No. Because well, he can't pass block, >> right? So you're going to have him be in a role that's like somewhat unidal,

142:59but that role is going to be on the Jaguars, which is potentially >> unbelievable.

143:07So, and this this this game could be part of that. Like, I I think Toutin is, you know, somewhat speculative this

143:14week, but he's he's a pretty interesting guy in his own right. I have him in that high-end RB3 mix as well. Like, I think

143:21he actually has a few more outs though than some of the other guys we talked about in that range. Like, he could get

143:26a little bit more receiving like, you know, some of the the dump off Bucky stuff that we saw last week. Mhm.

143:31>> Um, and then he could also have a he could finally have some break breakaway runs because he has a he's literally

143:37runs a 4-32 or he could just like be ripping off chunk plays which we've actually seen him do at the NFL level uh

143:44multiple times. So anyway, I I think he is he's a pretty intriguing play as part of this wagon.

143:51>> I like it, man. I like that, too. This game I'm definitely interested in playing through like a Lawrence Parker Washington uh you know Jaylen Wadd angle

144:00because I think Jaylen Wadd's going to get more involved than we saw on >> it can't be worse, right? Like it can't

144:06be worse. Uh but but yeah, Davis Webb obviously, you know, kind of he was one of those guys that kind of failed that

144:13first test. Uh and you he was going against Steve Spagnolo. Steve Spagnolo's made a lot of good play callers that have been seasoned look really bad. Uh,

144:20so there's a couple of those guys I'm at least willing to let the sample flesh out on. David Blau when we get to him,

144:25you know, going against Vic Fangio his first game too as a play caller. Uh, but it couldn't have gone worse for the

144:30Denver Broncos. But I think when you look at the Jaguars, I still from a top down predictive stance believe they're going to be a pass funnel. I think their

144:37run defense is good. I have a lot of questions about their secondary. Uh, you know, they just faced the Browns in week

144:42one. Uh, so I'm not really willing to say like that's going to be the approach a lot of teams take. When these teams

144:47played last year, the Broncos had a 9.6% 6% pass rate over expectation. Bonick's due for 350 yards. I know that Davis

144:54Webb is calling plays now and there's but I do think that they're going to have a lot more drop backs in this game

144:59and there's a chance for this game to be more back and forth because I also don't think the Broncos are as bad as we saw

145:03on Monday either. Uh I think they have too much collective talent. The offensive line's too good. Yeah, I think that they answer back and score some

145:11points in this game and that what's that's what makes this game maybe a little bit sneaky because the imprint of our minds obviously the last thing we

145:18saw of football happened was the Denver Broncos offense and it was pretty bad but uh I think that's going to be

145:23overindexed a little bit here. I don't think they're going to be that bad.

145:27>> I like that call. I think so. Jaylen Waddle 82% round participation, Sutton 88 and then Bryant was 64% but Brian

145:35Bryant ends up with with a 24% target share. Yeah. 12% to Waddle, 16% to Sutton. Brian had a 19% first read

145:43target rate, which is pretty good. So, you know, especially for a guy you think of as as being the number three. I I do

145:50not think that his involvement was a fluke. Like, I think he's a a key part of what they're doing and like kind of

145:56their true wide receiver three and potentially challenging Sutton, who I've been kind of worried about heading into.

146:04I really didn't draft him at all.

146:06Waddle, you know, a pretty bearish debut for him, but you have to imagine both Wadd and Sutton, who uh, you know,

146:14combined for 28% target share will will be a huge, you know, be a huge priority to get them more involved. Both of them,

146:21I would say this week. I I'm more bullish on Waddle.

146:25>> Yeah, 100%. At home, the guy you traded a first round pick four only gets three targets in the first game. You get asked

146:31a bunch of questions, Shawn Payeyton afterwards. I think there there will be an emphasis some of these guys right like that we saw have these low because

146:37because there's a lot of these games if these happen in week seven it's a blip for all of us right like we don't

146:42acknowledge it even that much but like the Cle Raymond the Kendrick Bourne game this even Pat Bryant to the Greek when

146:48you look at his route share like u we talked about the one tight end earlier Mikei uh like >> it's like a DFS note of like did anyone

146:56play Khalif Raymond this week he's he's in the optimal you know or whatever >> but I I think when we look at the when

147:01we get to week and we look at like Jaylen Wadd's, you know, game log of target shares, like week one is definitely probably either

147:09the lowest or like one of like the three lowest when we get there.

147:13>> I think I think you're right. Any thoughts on the running game here?

147:18>> I haven't seen I meant to check to see if RJ Harvey was practicing or not. I know they gave they played on Monday, so

147:23he >> he was off. He played through the game but apparently had like a a little >> estimated >> Yeah, because it was type of thing

147:32>> and they were West Coast. I don't I haven't I haven't seen as we're recording this if he's he was practicing

147:36or not. Uh but I the Jags are an awesome run defense and I like it's just a proof of sample of a season and then one game.

147:44But they came out again and nuked the run in week one. Going back to last year, there's only been three running

147:50backs to rush for over 62 yards in a game against them and no one's gone over 75. And two of those guys are Jonathan

147:55Taylor. So like I don't have a ton of confidence that like Denver's just going to line up and run the ball. They do

148:00have, you know, a good offensive line and you would say if they could if they're a team like this would be one.

148:05But I think they're going to have a high drop back rate in this game and I also think they're going to have a high drop

148:09back rate game. Not just because the Jags can stop the run because I think the Jags are going to score as well. So

148:14I'm more more bullish on probably Wadd being the dude versus the other guys, but I think that they're going to have a

148:20high number of dropbacks. So maybe you do get a little bit of run. I think the Jags corners are still a big question

148:25mark. I definitely do. So if you do have a Sutton even like I could see him even being a guy that could get in the box or

148:32maybe even have you know six to eight targets in this game and maybe in heave as like a viable like wide receiver for

148:38flex and if you get a touchdown even more than it.

148:41One note on uh on Travis Hunter, he he only had 56% of the snaps on defense.

148:48So, he's interesting where I think he's probably ramping up overall.

148:54>> Um, I think he had 12% route participation, then 57% snaps of the defense. He played 33 snaps in total. In

149:022025, he had a minimum of 47 snaps in every game, and he had 80 plus snaps in four of seven games. So, I think, you

149:09know, more of a defensive note right now, but he probably will be playing more uh as time goes on and certainly

149:17helps the defense as that happens. And then potentially just being a headache for, you know, the again the concentration of this this offense

149:27>> um affecting Meyers, I would say, the most even or Thomas depending on who he like literally is on the field for in that

149:35particular play. But uh his his lack of playing time was was also felt on defense and I think probably a ramp up plan coming off

149:45injury is is in play here um to some extent. The Raiders and the Chargers um we have half an hour for four games. So

149:55I I told you we'd get behind at some point.

150:01>> We started talking about wagons. You know >> Yeah, wagons. We Yeah, 15 minutes of wagons will do that. Um, all right. So,

150:07the RA I think maybe we switched we were in a we were on the highway in a car and then we switch it to a wagon which you

150:12don't get the MPH on a wagon. Uh, Raiders at Chargers the Raiders I mean this is pretty simple. We got Bowers

150:19out. We got uh Mayor filling in for him and you know kind of doing a decent enough impression for you know him being

150:28a super cheap fill in. 77% round participation 24% target share. But the big thing with the Raiders um was Genty

150:3721% target share just he had an expected points workload of 22.9 points which is really high uh and he delivered on that.

150:46Scored 32.7 PPR points. He ran well, ran really consistently. He had some burst.

150:53This this receiving role is, you know, it's just it wasn't a given. It's obvious like it makes a ton of sense.

150:59They don't have any weapons.

151:01You're like, "Clink Kubiaak's a sharp guy. Surely he'll have plays drawn up for Genty." But then he did. You know, he was actually like getting Genty the

151:08ball in in creative ways. Like, >> you can't ever count on that, >> even if it makes all the sense in the

151:14world for for a coach to do it. And seeing him deliver on that is is awesome. It just frankly fun. Like it's

151:21it's fun when football is actually fun.

151:23And so, you know, they're they're working to get their best player of the ball or at least their best player while

151:28Bowers is out. and it worked really well. So, you know, and they get they get a win. So, you know, now they go

151:35against this Chargers defense that just not only lost to the Cardinals, but like lost the time of possession battle badly. And you have to think the Raiders

151:45are looking at what the Cardinals did and being like, "Yes, that that is what we want to do." You know, they're

151:51they're happy to do that. They're happy to just try to control the ball and not let Justin Herbert have it at all and

151:57try to win a lowscoring game. So, the Raiders, you know, this actually sets up a lot better for them than we would have

152:04thought a couple weeks ago.

152:05>> Yeah, we talk a lot about like the the the offensive coordinators because we're, you know, we come from a fantasy

152:10lands, but man, I thought Chris Oir, the defensive coordinator that took over the Chargers was absolutely horrendous. Like absolutely awful. Like he was so sub he

152:19was willing to just lay down for Jacobe Brassette. like cuz ju just let him just just play shell coverage, not put any

152:27pressure on him and just let him complete like six to eight yard passes like and just like you said control the

152:32game. And that's exactly what the Raiders want to do.

152:36>> That's exactly what they want to do.

152:37Yeah.

152:37>> Like Kurt Cousins threw the ball 10 or more yards downfield on 24% of his passes. On those throws, he was one of

152:44seven with two interceptions. Like they don't want they don't want Kurt Cousins drop. They don't first they don't have the dudes to like to win down there and

152:52then and Kurt Cousins at the state like isn't going to be pushing the rocks like this is exactly like what they want to

152:58do. So does Chris Olri change anything in week two? Uh remains to be seen but this is exactly how the Raiders want to

153:05operate.

153:08>> Yeah. I mean and and it's from a fantasy perspective it's Mayor and and Bowers.

153:13Um >> and I think both of them are pretty good starts. Like if you are in a position where you need to start

153:19>> Oh, I said Bowers because because I'm sad that he's not playing. I do mean Jensy.

153:23>> But hey, Jens, you know, the prayer circle worked for Genty. At least the prayer circle did work.

153:27>> Yeah, Jenty's Jensie's a jam here. Just a straight up RB1 against the Chargers, which is which is pretty fun, >> you know. Um Chargers side, what do we

153:37make of this? I mean, we had these guys as our wagon, dude. Talk about broken down in a ditch.

153:42>> Yeah, it's awful. Uh Herbert played bad.

153:45the interior offensive, dude. They were rotating guards. Like I never had seen like that before. Uh they were just They're not doing it this week because

153:53Trey Pipkets is out. Trey Pipkin should never put a football helmet on again.

153:56Like to be honest.

153:58>> Uh but >> you think he could have made more money if he if he set out this year. He should

154:02have done the >> Tua. Don't put any film on. Don't put any more film out. He see he put too much film out there. All right. Like

154:07it's it's out, man. Uh Cole Strange was awful, too. A lot of team high five pressures. Herbert was bad. Also, the

154:15one disappointment I have like to being excited about this marriage, I wanted to see the the Mike McDaniel offense married with the Herbert style. I don't

154:23want to see Herbert run the two offense like like I there's got to be like it's got to be a little more open, right?

154:30Like we can't do all that. We're in pistol all the time. Uh and you're making first read throws like let you

154:37got to let Justin Herbert play a little bit too. Uh you can't turn him into a robot. So that all stems down to like

154:45they didn't have the football. The offensive line didn't play well and then Lad Maki got hurt because when Lad Maki was on the field, the Chargers were

154:52averaging six and a half yards per play.

154:53They had a 41 and a half% success rate.

154:56They were cooking. They were fine on like a like they just they were still moving the ball. And then when LA left

155:02the game, they had a 33% success rate, 4.2 yards per play. I do worry big picture if the run game is ever going to

155:08be like the one thing that I do did want to note and I think I am making a small calibration for is Omar and Hampton.

155:15Yeah, he didn't have the usage we wanted. The interior offensive line looks to be a problem.

155:21>> Um and they didn't it was Herbert's target.

155:24>> First game of Herbert's career, he didn't throw a pass to a running back >> like like what are like I think Mike

155:31McDaniel failed some of the tests. I was think Herbert played bad. I'm not looking to make excuse for Herbert.

155:35might not be that dude either. Uh but uh it was a systemic fail. I think it was a systemic fail on defense. I think it was

155:41systemic fail on offense. This is how you lose to a team you should beat. Like all around.

155:46>> Yeah. But I I I agree that the the Hampton stuff is what I came away.

155:51>> That's what I came around the biggest adjustment.

155:54>> Yeah. I mean, he like he looks like an RB2, you know, like and I have I have him as a high-end RB2 this

156:01week, but like you look at his profile and he's not dominating carries. He's running back 15 in carry share last week. He was pretty solid, but didn't

156:11have a ton of ton of burst in that game.

156:14And you know, maybe that's related to the offensive line, whatever. And it's also just one game.

156:18>> Yeah, he was hit at he was hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on eight of his 12 carries. But the thing with

156:24Hampton that's that is tough and I not this is a guy I wasn't taking a ton of in a way that I like felt wrong because

156:30I'm like he checked so many boxes of what I look for >> except the player like when you get down to like if you just look at like how old

156:39is he and like what you know is he in a good enough offense? Does he have the potential to be in a really good

156:42offensive line? Does it potential get thrown to a lot? Does potential to score a lot of touchdowns? Like yes yes yes

156:49but like who is he? And yeah, he was a first- round pick, but I don't think he was nearly the level of prospect that

156:55Genty was. And they didn't have that great of a rookie season from the perspective of a guy who's then going to

157:01go become a superstar running back. And then they bring in Keith Mitchell, who they're clearly interested in, you know, having a role, you know, even if I'm a

157:09little skeptical it'll be some incredible role, but it I wasn't skeptical that it could be a pain in Hampton's ass. Right.

157:16>> So, this is where you're like, if he's not going to get thrown to, and then if Mitchell's not getting thrown to,

157:25>> does the offense not throw to the running back very much? And then if it does, is that to Hampton or is it to

157:29Mitchell? Like, if there's not that many running back targets to go around, >> yeah, >> then then Mitchell becomes even more of

157:35a problem, assuming he has a receiving role there. So, I think Hampton, you know, he's he's in an offense that will

157:42score more points going forward. And his his touchdown upside is definitely intriguing, but he that's kind of RB2 stuff, right? Where you're like, hey,

157:51the weeks when he scores touchdowns are going to be really fun. Um, but unless the receiving stuff comes around and it's it is just one game, so, you know,

158:00yeah, >> football's weird. He could have six targets this week, >> right? Yeah, I would assume that they do throw more than what that one pass goes

158:06to a running back this week.

158:08>> I would I would hope so.

158:10>> To be fair, they did have one throw to Mitchell. It gained zero yards and it had a holding penalty and that's why the

158:16game came back your stats intact.

158:19>> Yeah. So, I just want to let that be clear because like well they threw it didn't count. It didn't get no

158:23registered not a registered target.

158:25>> Um but yeah, he was the guy that I made the biggest adjustment for. I try to say like >> could this be this last year's Patriots

158:31situation? But the difference between this Chargers team and the Patriots is like they have a brutal schedule going forward after this week. And the

158:37Patriots have a good defense and I don't know if this defense is going to be good. I think Jesse Mter probably was

158:42elevating a lot of talent here. Um and it there's a lot of there's question marks. Like I said, they were fine on

158:48offense uh when Lad was playing. It's just they didn't have the football, which could maybe is a problem for them year round, right? Like maybe this

158:54defense is just struggles to get off the field and that's going to be a problem going forward, especially when they play

158:58better teams like going forward. But it was a big- time bummer uh the first game uh for all these guys. Lad Maki looked

159:07incredible though. And he practiced today. They're calling him questionable.

159:12I don't know like I I don't know if it's going to be like a thing where it's like a decoy thing, but dude, I mean he first

159:17drive of the game came out three catches, 60 yards. Like we saw the he was the one guy where like proof of

159:23concept like it was paying off and then he got he took that terrible shot. Uh >> yeah, he looked like they're going to

159:31run run the offense through him. So, >> and the question with him always was does he have the body type to sustain

159:37like a high target share and for one week we ran into them for problem again, >> right? Yeah. But I mean 4.56 yards per

159:45hour run. It's sort of like, hey, as long as he's healthy and on the field, I'm going to I'm going to want to want

159:49to play him. He's >> He was naked, dude. Like they were He was And I know it's Cardinals, but like that was what we were looking for. like

159:55the motion stuff, like him getting first read, like >> all of it was all of it was on display.

160:01>> All right, Commanders at Cowboys. Um, Cowboys were actually really efficient last week, but they didn't win the game.

160:09Dart was even better and then they were able to kind of control the ball at the end of the game there. Um, Dallas ended

160:15up having the third worst time of possession ahead of only the Chargers.

160:19>> Did you see the CD Lamb interview?

160:21>> No. Well, they they so they only had two possessions in the second half and they asked CD Lamb about it and he didn't

160:26even know. He like he thought they were lying to him.

160:29>> That is crazy.

160:30>> He was like, "What do you mean?" He's like, "Wait." He said, "We had the ball more than twice a second." They're like,

160:33"No, man. You had two drives." He's like, "Oh, I guess >> that does make sense.

160:38>> That's really funny."

160:41>> Yeah. I mean, I kind of this this team like I think this is a bounceback spot big time like and and Pickkins too. like

160:50Pickkins 18 AOT uh he had three 20 plus yard targets. All three of them fell incomplete. Uh his other three targets

160:57had an eight out of 7.3. Those those three that fell incomplete had an eight out of 28.7. So it's like he doesn't get

161:03the easy stuff. Even his like easy stuff is like kind of nor it's like normal stuff or super long stuff. Yeah. So he

161:10he could just you know when when it hits it's going to hit big with Pickins and I think he'll have >> you know some really really nice games

161:17this year. This could could easily be one of them going against Commander defense. Lamb, his role was what you were hoping for. Didn't have a huge

161:24game, but they only two drives in the second half. Yeah. So, so I think uh I think this is a potential big-time

161:33fantasy bounceback for the for the Cowboys slash we learned that like normally when a quarterback has 17.4 EPA in a game that like leads to an awesome

161:43fantasy day for his receivers. In this case, it did not. But I think Prescott could have yet another really efficient game here and uh and the Cowboys can

161:53maybe be in wagon contention as we as we head into next week.

161:56>> Yeah, I think this is a huge bounceback spot for the Cowboys going back at home.

162:00Dak, they had four drops. They also drew another 70 yards and pass interference penalties in that game. So like there's a lot left uh uh that could have been

162:09statistically like in the box score for some of these guys. Uh Dak Prescott has faced Dan Quinn three times. They've scored 40, 44, and 30 points in those

162:17games. And the Commanders were complete boomer bust defense in week one. They lived and died by the blitz. And they can't do that here. Like, so they're I

162:26think they're just between a rock and a hard place. Like >> that's a great point.

162:29>> They when they they blitzed at the eighth highest rate in week one and they actually had a the fourth highest

162:34pressure rate when they blitzed and you can blitz Jaylen Herz. He was three of eight on those blitzes.

162:39>> But you ain't blitzing blitz. Not this is the past five years.

162:44He has the highest completion rate in the NFL against the Blitz. 33 touchdowns to eight interceptions. So then you say, "All right, we can't blitz Dak

162:50Prescott." Well, when you decided not to blitz Jaylen Herz, he went 11 of 17 with 11 yards for pass attempt. What do you

162:56think the Dallas Cowboys are going to do if you drop back a coverage? Like I mean, I just don't think I feel it's

163:02like a lose-lose situation for Dan Quinn. Like what does he do? I think they just You do the Dan Campbell thing

163:07like we better score every drive. We better score every drive on Sunday. Like >> that's how I view it. I think the

163:14Cowboys are going to absolutely just roll here.

163:17>> I do too. And I I think, you know, Javvante is going to be a part of that.

163:20He he's got control of the backfield very very clearly.

163:23>> Uh running back four and and Carrie Share, you know, 21.9 expected points.

163:29>> Dude, I was taking him and it felt so gross. Like I understand why you weren't, but like >> but it's this was the thesis, man. Like

163:36>> this was the thesis. I didn't want to believe and I was drafting him. It's just like you're like >> what a run out, man.

163:43>> I know. Seriously. Um >> it's the it's the he it's the uh the the Travis CTN thing of last year.

163:51>> Yeah.

163:51>> Like just >> Yeah. Like eventually he'll be a bad pick, but this year he wasn't.

163:55>> Nope.

163:58>> Yeah, I know. It's kind of wild. Um but yeah, I mean he's he's he's in a really strong position. He's got a ton of

164:03touchdown equity here. Commander side.

164:06Um the the JCM thing I I have this from coach peak index by the way when I was reading the toot and stuff that was from

164:14coach peak index and I pulled this from uh from the discord as well.

164:17>> Oh yeah need to hear some stuff here.

164:19>> So this is on whether Katron Allen in the game after sorry on whether putting Kron Allen in the game after Bill Crosky

164:25Merritt's fumble was a conscious decision because Quinn wanted Allen in the game or it was in response to Krosky Meritt's fumble. Quote it was both.

164:38He got benched for fumbling.

164:42So that's not ideal. Uh but Rashad White was pretty bad. Bill Crosky Merritt was actually pretty consistent in that in that game. And uh goes against this

164:54Dallas run defense that like why were the Giants able to hold the ball that long? Like in part because they were

165:01just like getting chunk gains with Cam Scataboo. And I think I think Commanders could move the ball here on the ground.

165:08Bill is obviously a very fragile play.

165:10Um but, you know, has some some appeal in this spot. And then I think potentially a bounceback spot for uh for

165:17Jaden Daniels. You know, goes from the Eagles defense to the Cowboys defense.

165:22You know, obviously Terry McLaren had this total no-show last week, but Diggs showed up and Antonio Williams showed up, although he only had 29% round

165:29participation. So, I would be a little bit careful about way >> actually playing him >> for a couple reasons.

165:35>> One, they played Antonio or Diami Dam Brown played early >> and then they they pulled him and then Chika Konquo got hurt.

165:44>> Chaquo got hurt. Yeah, >> Chikaquo was out. So, Williams ran one route with Chikao in the game and then he was on the field 64% of the time

165:52afterwards. Uh, and then also Diami Brown stopped playing in the fourth quarter. I mean, he was creating separation at will. He looked great.

166:00>> Um, I liked him as a prospect, too. So, maybe it's just me being like copious.

166:03>> I didn't like him as a prospect. He looked great.

166:08>> But yeah, I mean, I was encouraged by a lot of things. Uh, that the the way the receivers played, they just played the

166:13Eagles, right? Like, I'm willing to give a little bit of a cart blanch to, you know, the the offense maybe not looking

166:18particularly good going against Vicio.

166:20There was I would like to see more easy buttons. They did run motion at the lowest rate. They were at the bottom of

166:24play action rate. I would like to see more of that going forward. But Terry McLaren, who I didn't expect to have a

166:30good game because he's he's never had a good game against Quinty Mitchell, but I like the routes he was running. I like

166:36his usage and I think it's going to show up a lot better here than it did in week one. Uh I mean he was running crossing

166:42routes 25% of the time and that Cliff Kingsbury where he just lined up and ran hitches and at left wide receiver 10%

166:4813% post like middle of the field. He was running a lot more middle of the field routes and I think in better

166:54matchups that will show up. Could be here. Right. We saw Malik Neighbors have a lot of those catches in week one when

166:59he got on the field uh where Dart was layering in those balls. So, it's a little nebulous because Terry McLaren >> historically has gone up against

167:08non-target earners in the offense and Diggs obviously is always going to be a target earner. He basically played the same role he did with the Patriots uh

167:15last year. The exact same role.

167:18And dude, he was undressing Cooper De like >> Yeah, he looked good.

167:22>> Like looked really good. I mean, it's Stefon Digs, man. That's what he does.

167:25you just got to deal with the other [ __ ] with him. But >> right, >> so I do worry a little bit in the sense

167:29of like Terry McCorin probably isn't going to have a lot of like these 30 to 35% target share games. I do think he

167:34could have some upside here on a per target basis though in this matchup. So I think all these guys are in play. Um I

167:41like going back to McLaren just have like a bounceback spot. But I do think all him and Diggs are like definitely in

167:47play. And then I could think you can get cute with a Conquo being out that Williams in a game where they have to

167:52throw, right? Like we are assuming they're going to have to chase points that he is in a game environment that can nurture his 65% route participation

168:00turning into like actual raw routes that maybe are like in the 20s.

168:05>> Yeah, I could I could see it with a conquo out for sure. Mhm.

168:09>> Um all right, let's go to the Seahawks and Cardinals. Um Cardinals obviously are getting a much

168:19more difficult test than they did last week. Um Brassette uh only played the Seahawks once last year. Kyler Murray played uh in the first Seattle game. It

168:29was a 42 to22 loss. Brassette posted minus 10.2 EPA and a 45% success rate.

168:37Last week he was at 12.7 EPA and a 57% success rate. Uh, you know, this is going to be I I would anticipate maybe

168:44he's not as bad as he was last year, but it's going to be kind of a a rude awakening here for the Cardinals

168:50offense.

168:52>> Um, is is that your read as well?

168:54>> Yeah, the one thing they have is just like the Drew Lock factor, right? That's like the one thing you can hope for is

168:59just the variance of uh, you know, which Drew Lock do you get? But I think if Drew Lock is going to be like ever just

169:05come in and manage the game, this is it, right? Like do his thing. And he >> That's what he did last year. Last week

169:10he he his out was six.

169:12>> Yep.

169:13>> Last week his uh time to throw was 2.81.

169:17Like he wasn't holding on the ball super long. His first rate attempt rate was 67%. So he's getting the ball out

169:22quickly to the first read and generally shallowly. So he wasn't doing a bunch of like, you know, sometimes he plays like

169:30he's Will Levis or something. You know what I mean? It's like kind of the that's not what he was doing. I I I

169:34think he probably plays game manager here.

169:37>> Yeah. And I think he can uh against Nick Railless like you know who did what we kind of thought he did. Very passive,

169:42play zone, not really blitz a lot like that. It just kind of lines up for Drew Lock to continue to facilitate and I

169:49think he'll be able to do that. Came away really excited about Brian Flurry though in week one. Not the fact the

169:56fact that his quarterback got hurt five snaps into the game, >> but what he did with Jackson Smith and Jigba, >> I was like, "Oh, again, do you pass the

170:05test?" Like, you're going into a spot that's objectively hard. Like, this is the best quarterbacks in the NFL.

170:09>> He might be better for JSN Kubak was, >> dude. He had eight catches. Not one came in Christian Gonzalez's coverage. He

170:18played two snaps in the back field, 13 snaps in the slot. It was his highest snap share in the slot uh since the

170:24second year. 15 snaps at left wide receiver, 15 snaps at right wide receiver. The dude was everywhere. And then on top of it all, JSN has a turbo

170:34has the the second most yak he's ever had in a game in his career. Like if he's going to start adding [ __ ] like

170:38this to his game, >> like holy, what do we do, man? I was one of these people. I was like, "Hey,

170:43>> he might be like this year Saquin just because like he's gonna be good, but like you just can't replicate like what

170:48you did." And then in week one against a good defense, he comes out and has >> an exact replication.

170:54>> 46% of the targets, 52% of the area yards, and he's getting used creatively, and he's adding Yak to his game. Like,

171:01what are we like?

171:03>> Yeah, man. It's really wild. And he had a 38% first rate target rate. So, like so much of it was just literally like

171:09the design of the offense. over a third of the design of the of the offense was just like, "Hey, >> let's get this guy the ball

171:18>> against a good defense."

171:20>> Against the good defense. Yeah.

171:22>> And a guy that just got paid to be the high I think deserve >> not against him to your point. I mean,

171:27that's that's the beauty of it.

171:28>> Yeah. And that's those are things that I look at and I'm like, this guy knew the assignment.

171:33>> Yeah. Yeah. Thoughts on uh the running the running game here for Seattle? I mean, Jadarian Price only running back 27 in carry share last week, 45% of the

171:44carries, but he ran well.

171:46>> Helani was abysmal. You have to think that they they give Price more work, right?

171:50>> Brian Flurry said that he deserved more work. What that means remains to be seen. We always hear these coach quotes,

171:56right? And then you're just like, "All right, well, what does that mean?" Like, no one specifically said, "Will he play in short yardage? Will he play at the

172:02goal line?" Because Emanuel Wilson came in for the short yardage opportunities, too. like buddy like he played the Kenneth Walker role to a te like you

172:10weren't running routes you were looked efficient as a runner but like it was all empty calorie stuff for fantasy like >> yeah's gone like you don't have to use

172:17the new Kenneth Walker role watch the Chiefs game again I'm begging these coaches just put on they weren't on red zone in fairness to flurry but

172:24>> the best thing I think we saw is that the other two guys just didn't do anything like >> like Helani and Emanuel Wilson didn't do

172:30anything where you say like oh they should be in these roles like that so the door is open.

172:36>> So, yeah. So, this would be a spot where you you'd think that they control things defensively. Maybe they don't blow him

172:42out like last time because of the Drew Lock factor, but you give him more of these opportunities and you hope some

172:47things are added on to his plate that weren't there in week one because he did look the part. The Patriots did play a

172:53lot of sub package stuff, too. Like, so some of the efficiency stuff was based on like they were willing to concede

172:58some rushing yards uh early on and then they tightened up as the game went on.

173:02But >> guess they're like, "We can't stop JSN anyway."

173:04>> Yeah. Like, but but dude, we're talking about George Helani and Emanuel Wilson.

173:08Like, this isn't Zack Charbanet. Like, this isn't like like Zack Charban was a second round pick, like a pretty solid prospect. Like, we're talking about

173:15dudes. We talking about guys in the NFL, right? Like, >> dudes. Dudes derogatory. The uh Jere Jeremiah Love on the other side. I

173:26mean, another situation where rookie, this guy's clearly the better of the two guys, but he was running back 40 in in

173:33Carrie Shar last week. He's ramping up as, you know, he recovers from this ankle injury, but um any thoughts on on

173:40this backfield split. Do you think we're still going to get plenty of Algier here? Well, there was no way in week one

173:45after what they did in the preseason that they were going to give him like any type of extended role, but he

173:50already came on the field in the goal line at the goal line and he looked apart too as well. But I mean, I don't

173:57play dudes like with any type of ceiling optimism for Seattle against Seattle.

174:02Like you need to have 100% of your backfield to like get over as like a volume based RB2 against them.

174:07>> Totally. And like yeah, that's that's just where they're so dominant against run. Even even in week one, they had no

174:14Emanuel War like they they were just dominant again uh against the run.

174:19>> Did you see that Ian tweet where he is just Raandre getting absolutely blown up in the back field because Trayvon

174:25Henderson scores on this?

174:26>> He's like scores.

174:30The one area you have against Seattle is they will give up some receiving points to running backs, but uh >> yeah,

174:36>> it was still like kind of an even split between those guys. I think that favors love, but there's just no way I have any

174:42like sealing expectations here. Like you're just hoping you get some kind of volume based flex worthy stuff, right?

174:48Like >> totally. I mean, the whole offense I think it's basically Trey McBride just betting on an insane role for him. He

174:54had a 32% first read target rate, 35% target rate, 34% target share. It's like he has clearly installed Wilson can be

175:03in like the puka nakua role, I guess, but that's not actually what he's in. Um I think Trey McBride is is very very

175:11clearly the focal point. Marvin Harrison's role was real real rough. Uh I called him uh if we're comparing it to the Rams the Allen Robinson role.

175:21>> Yeah. Yeah, I mean he's a guy him and I think when you look at these guys when they come into the NFL like they just

175:27have no he has like no movement to the like he just he can only run straight.

175:31He's big and run straight and like that stuff can work at college when you're better than all the other athletes. But

175:37it's just been a problem in the NFL like he just has no fluidity to him at all.

175:42We seem this be a problem for Kyle Pittz too a little bit uh who is a dominant college player but like just struggles

175:48like with any type of like fluid movement. Um, yeah, it's hard to play any of these guys against Seattle.

175:54McBride sneakily against Mike McDonald averages 29 PPR points per game in five games. He's had seven catches in every game against Mike McDonald.

176:02>> Okay, that's pretty sweet.

176:04>> 35% target share, 2.3 yards per round.

176:07This is includes a Baltimore game, Mike McDonald game, too, uh, when he was there. So like even though you see Seattle, I think

176:15Trey McBride still I'm willing to still confidently play him and no one's benching him anyways, but I actually think he's kind of maybe even a sneaky

176:21DFS play because of that.

176:24>> I mean, he's he's it's kind of the right kind of DFS play where it's like this guy's awesome. He's the focal point of

176:31of an entire offense and maybe, you know, people are off him because of the defense. Everyone's everyone this week's just going to do the same thing as last

176:38week and play Schultz and Mayor for the >> right. Um, all right. Dolphins at 49ers.

176:45Uh, and we got to get through this relatively quickly.

176:49>> This will be We can do that. I think >> we can do it. I I'll I'll start off on Malik Willis. Eight out of 12, deep pass

176:55rate of 15%, time to throw a 3.47. So, hold the ball, go deep. That is not really what Malik Washington has ever

177:03done. He's been a more of a shallower intermediate AOT guy. It is what Caleb Douglas did in college. His lowest AOT

177:10in four seasons of college was 12.8. He was a 13.6 this past year. Um it he's a good I don't he was not a good prospect

177:18in my opinion, but hey, he's running a ton of routes. He was 86% route participation last week. Chris Bell's not healthy yet. You know, he's out

177:26there, but he's he was at 54% routicipation. He's ramping up and Douglas fits what the offense is. So, I think Douglas would have a 24% target

177:35share last week. 2.94 yards per out run.

177:39He's intriguing is kind of he's the way I'd play this. Like, you know, if you're trying to project this out, it's going

177:45to be a little uncertain right now who's going to actually get targets. And, you know, Washington could certainly out target Douglas, but I think Douglas is

177:53just like in a role that actually suits his skill set. So, his ability to deliver on volume I feel a lot more

177:58confident about. Um, and so, you know, he moves now from the Raiders to the 49ers, who were actually pretty good on

178:06defense against the Rams. They both sit back. They have Fred Warner back. They actually look like they could be a good

178:11defense. So, the answer here could be no one. But, if it is someone, it's it looks to me like Caleb Douglas. And, um,

178:18you know, he's, you know, he's at least a little bit intriguing here. Kind of a deeper dart throw guy, DFS play.

178:26>> Yeah. I mean, he's the may again >> I am a wide receiver four, by the way.

178:29Not not anything too too deep down in the ranks.

178:31>> And like you said, he I don't I didn't think as an overall prospect he was particularly good, but I think the one

178:35thing that he is good at just aligns with what Malik will this play style.

178:39So, I was like kind of always open to him in this situation. I was like, well, this kind like yeah, he's not a good

178:44prospect, but he does the thing this guy does well. So, like >> right, you know, absolutely.

178:48>> I end up taking some of them late when it when it became clear he was actually like live to start right away. And Miami

178:54did throw the ball at least over expectations. Uh so like you can I think get some volume here out of him. And

179:00Malik Willis I think is just gonna give all these guys like chances, right? Like it's like he's I don't know. It's like

179:06not he runs a lot more than Sher Sanders, but like he has the same play style where like he wants to hold the

179:10ball. He'll take a ton of sacks, but like he'll when he does throw like he's gonna like have >> chunk gains like chunk gain completions.

179:18Uh so that aligns with Caleb Douglas as well. I mean, he's kind of doing what Watson is doing, but it's like a little

179:24more >> better. It's probably better. Yeah.

179:26Deshawn >> Watson is better. It's not that much better, but it is. It's It's better because he's like he is an actually good

179:35runner.

179:35>> Yes.

179:36>> You know, he can challenge the defense with his legs in a way Watson's no longer really doing. And the bummer is

179:42we saw proof of everything we were worried about with Devon Han like immediately was >> well he had a 16% target share so you

179:50know that part of it and I think it was four targets so it wasn't you know it wasn't like 16% and two targets

179:56>> but he had a he he he had his target rate per out run would be a career low >> uh just they didn't have a lot of throws

180:03the Dolphins ran 39 plays down double digits only the Browns ran more in week one so we were always worried about the

180:10game script stuff with him. Uh the >> it's 78% round participation though and 85% snap share.

180:17>> No, we knew this though. Like we knew that like the the snap share and the control of backfield stuff was going to

180:23be there. Like we knew that we're going to suck the fire. Yes.

180:27>> The per route but like give this guy enough snaps man.

180:31>> Also because he plays the rushing bad >> and because he plays at Mc Willis he faced eight men in the box on 46% of his

180:38runs which would be careerhigh. So you don't have Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Wadd or stationary quarterback. So teams are playing more guys up the line of

180:45scrimmage because you have to account for Malik Willis running around. And then also Malik Willis did the thing. He scrambled on 14% of his drop backs. So

180:53you don't get the checkdowns, right?

180:54That's why he had the he had the great route participation, but the routes per target weren't that great. He did get

181:00some design stuff. So >> it's going to be a bad team. Remember this was against the Raiders, by the way, too. Like this is a bad team that

181:08didn't score points on the Raiders.

181:09Everything we were worried about was like accentuated in in year in this first week one. Uh so it's hard to feel

181:16like overly bullish here. But what are you going to do if you if you got in bed to this point? Like what are you

181:23supposed to do?

181:24>> Yeah, I have him as a low end RB1. I mean, I don't think it's good, but you know, he's going to play a ton. And I do

181:33think when the next time we hear someone like we're going to give this guy I'm going to what was I'm going to have to

181:39carry him off the field after the game and then remember the >> the CJ Spiller >> the CJ Spiller you know he's going to be

181:44throwing up after the game that we have to adjust the ranks bearish on that on that like this because it sounds so you

181:54know obviously even at the time you're like well yeah but your team that team's going to suck but you're kind of like

181:59well he is going to man he's he's so locked in for volume But when you see the volume actually play out, it is a

182:05reminder of like, oh, this volume sucks.

182:07>> Yeah, >> I don't like this volume.

182:10>> No, >> so yeah. All right, 49ers side. Speaking of volume, we lost volume for Christian McCaffrey. I was not particularly

182:20concerned um from the perspective of hey I like to you know have guys be peing at the end of the season and if you have a

182:2930-year-old running back maybe he doesn't need >> to have an insane amount of carries >> um right out of the gate. Uh and then of

182:38course we have Kaylin Black now came popped up yesterday with a groin injury.

182:41I haven't seen what status today he's practicing. Okay. Um, so even if basically I was like McCaffrey, if Black doesn't play, I'm going to have him as

182:50an elite RB1. And if he does play, I'm going to have McCaffrey as a high-end RB1. Like he's going to he's going to

182:56project awesome either way. It's just like >> he won't project as awesome. But I still think McCaffrey is going to be like just

183:03fine with Kalin Black taking some of the rushing work. And then I'm not even sure that this sustains like this.

183:10>> That's a variable. It's like what's what is even real that happened cuz you >> it feels like a man being responsible,

183:17you know, rather than cuz Kaylin Black running back 38 in rush yards over expected, running back 33 in in the ROE

183:24success rate. He was running back six in the EPA success rate, but tied with McCaffrey. He didn't have a breakaway run. He was running back 51 in elusive

183:32rating. He had 3% target share, 0.42 yards per out run. His expected points total was 8.2, too, which is enough to

183:40like suck for McAffrey, but I don't Black didn't do anything against the Rams. We were like, "Oh [ __ ] he looked

183:47good to my eyes." Like I was like, "Oh, this guy looks pretty good." But like by the metrics actually not that

183:52impressive. And then McCaffrey, who also looked really good when I was watching the game, he was running back eight in rush yards over expected, running back

184:00four in Roe success rate, running back six in EPA success rate. Uh he had he had a breakaway run with uh 16 breakaway

184:08yards. He was running back 19 elusive rating. He was getting targeted non-stop. He had a 24% target share. So like I don't know. I'm pretty McAffrey

184:17is going to he's going to do his thing.

184:19>> Yeah. He didn't lose any high value touches, was more efficient. Whether you want to give it credit to the the

184:24workload or what he he just was. He had he was fourth in rushing yards rate of runs over expectation. uh you know had

184:30his highest yards per rush on a a game with double digit carry since 2023. Um yeah, it's just hard to parse out like

184:37what the actual reasoning was. Was it Shanahan being responsible? I would argue I don't know because Christian McAffrey in a game that was 27 to7 in

184:46the fourth quarter was getting the football. So I don't know if like >> he had stopped being responsible. My whole thing with Shanahan is that he's a

184:52he's able to like be responsible for like >> he can never be your DD. Like he's the friend you can never let be the DD. Like

185:00cuz then you look over and you're like, "Holy [ __ ] he's got a beer." You're like, "God damn it." Like

185:05>> like, "Oh my god." Like >> where he's like he's just like ripping a bong.

185:10>> Yeah. It's like, "Oh, you son of a man. You think you were all right. You were all right."

185:15>> You said you wouldn't drink. I'm not.

185:18>> And honestly, that's what happened to the 49ers in the playoffs every year.

185:21Like >> you were doing so good, man. You were doing so good. You understood the assignment until it's midnight and we're

185:31all like you're ripping box, man. Like godamn.

185:36>> Yeah, that that's what I'm saying. I just I have a lot of faith in my lack of faith for Shannon,

185:43you know, like he's not going to come through for us and be responsible over the long term. He's going to relapse and

185:50just give the ball to McCaffrey a ton.

185:53Like that that's his happy place. I also think just the receiving stuff's going to hold here because KD is still not

185:59going to be full-time. You lose Tanis, you lose dribbling. Um there will be a bump like Debo and and Demarcus Robbins

186:07had big bumps, but I also don't even think Evans goes to like a full aotment of snaps yet either.

186:12>> Probably not. Yeah.

186:13>> So, I think the McAffrey rece I think he's still going to have a really high target share. And if you're telling me I

186:17can get double digit runs, even if it's the low end, plus still six to eight targets against the Miami Dolphins, I

186:23think it's probably going to work out.

186:26>> Yeah, I do think like so Pertie is coming off 9 EPA against the Rams.

186:31Obviously, Miles Garrett was playing through injury. He's now gotten surgery.

186:35Um, but still, I mean, Pertie had a 60% success rate and and nine EPA had a great game. He's been really efficient

186:42for years now. I don't think we're going to get a ton of volume here because they are playing the Dolphins and their

186:49defense looks pretty good now. Uh the 49ers, I mean, and so volume is a problem. Efficiency though, like Evans could could get there.

186:58>> Yeah, >> Debo could get there. Demarcus Robinson could could even get there on efficiency. Um and with KD probably, >> you know, maybe he's at 60% round

187:07participation up from up from 47 to open the season, but I don't think he'll be in like a full-time role. So

187:13>> there's, you know, a good chance for um for these guys to to have an efficient game. It's it's tough for,

187:21you know, how is the 49ers going to like sustain a ton of uh production here? It would take I think the Dolphins pushing

187:27back in a way that I think is pretty unrealistic, but one of these guys could have a a pretty strong game, I think.

187:33What What are your thoughts on the passing game?

187:34>> Yeah, I think Pertie now going back to last year's averaged 21 fantasy points his last eight starts. That includes like a Seattle game in there, too. like

187:41he wasn't particularly good in that game. It just lowered the average. But this guy's been really good for from from a fantasy floor and upside stance

187:48for literally half a season since he came back from that foot injury. Uh and then the other thing here about this

187:53matchup in particular is we just saw the Miami Dolphins go against Clint Kubak.

187:57This is this it's it's it's a it's a similar offensive scheme but with better pass catchers. And the Miami Dolphins because you know they have Jacob

188:06Rodriguez playing all these snaps and Jordan Brooks playing snaps. They played sub packages at a league low 31% of the time. This is what Kyle Shanahan wants

188:13you to do. Like he's going to invite this and pretty since you're in the NFL against base defenses, 71% completion rate, 9.7 yards per pass attempt, 8.3%

188:24touchdown rate like you like you're right. It we're probably not getting like even to 30 pass attempts. But I think Pertie in this game, even on 20 to

188:3324 pass attempts, probably could still throw two to three touchdowns and he's probably gonna average maybe double digit yards per pass attempt in this

188:39game.

188:40>> Yeah, I I could totally see that. Um but yeah, so predicting exactly where it's going to go stuff, but but I think Evans

188:45and Debo like all these guys have upside.

188:48>> Um it's just >> Well, Evans was all high leverage, dude.

188:52I mean, he every single his all seven targets was third down or endzone. every all of his stuff was >> he's 97th percentile right now in first

189:01down per route run.

189:02>> He was that's he was >> and he dropped the one his one was a drop. He would have been >> he would have been 100%.

189:08>> He would have been 100. He would have been 100.

189:11>> Um all right. I got to run. Um >> let's do it.

189:14>> But uh yeah, tell the people what you got going on at Sharp Football Analysis.

189:18Tell >> Football Analysis. We're building it sample size. We're writing up every game of the week. I look forward to, you

189:23know, diagnosing what from week one wasn't real in week two.

189:26I know it's fun. Uh check out the walkthrough at Legendary Upside and uh join us here for week three angles and

189:35upside uh next week. We're excited to uh to have more stuff to analyze. Pretty soon we're going to be able to look at

189:41some trends. Reeves.

189:42>> Yeah. Uh yeah. All right. Thanks, guys.

189:45See you next time.

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