Legendary Upside

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3 hr 6 min

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Amon-Ra St. BrownBraelon AllenBreece HallCaleb DouglasChris BellCooper KuppCyrus AllenEmmett JohnsonHunter HenryIsaiah WilliamsJahmyr GibbsJake FergusonJameson WilliamsKenneth Walker III

Player analysis

Player insights

Amon-Ra St. Brown

PositiveProjection5:20

St. Brown is the clear focal point of the Lions offense with a 39% first-rate target share and 24% first-target rate. On play action specifically, he posts a 10.3 ADOT and 2.82 yards per route run—up from 8.1 ADOT and 2.06 on regular drop-backs—giving him elevated big-play potential. Against the Dolphins' vulnerability to play action (highest rate in the league), the source projects he is "set up to absolutely nuke here."

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Braelon Allen

NegativeUsage30:46

Allen has 2.37 yards per route run this year versus Hall's 0.65, demonstrating superior efficiency as a receiver and runner. However, his fantasy value is constrained by a split backfield with Hall; Allen is eating into Hall's rushing workload but may not catch passes if the split relegates him to goal-line duty only. His floor becomes Chris Rodriguez-like if he doesn't score touchdowns; upside is Blake Corum-level if the offense improves, but the Jets offense probably isn't good enough to support that ceiling.

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Breece Hall

NegativeUsage30:40

Breece Hall is returning from injury but will split the backfield with Braelon Allen, who has been too efficient as a runner for Hall to reclaim full ownership. Hall offers significantly more as a receiver (2.37 yards per route run versus Allen's 0.65) and the matchup is favorable, but Hall's primary concern is goal-line usage uncertainty; if he is shut out at the goal line while splitting rushing work, his fantasy value becomes problematic. The source is not super excited about playing him this week and would avoid him if possible.

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Caleb Douglas

PositiveBreakout16:26

Profiles as a legitimate field stretcher at 2.11 yards per route run and 12.6 yards per target; ranks as WR22 in yards per route run and WR26 in fantasy points per route run. Operates as an upside WR2 with the most routes on the team last week. The source identifies him as the favorite Dolphins play in this matchup; DJ Reid's absence for the Lions creates more deep shot opportunities. He's converted really well on deep attempts and matches well with Malik Willis's aggressive play style.

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Chris Bell

PositiveUsage15:50

Has underperformed with 0.99 yards per route run; moved into an underneath role with declining route participation: 8 routes two years ago, 4 routes last two weeks, 3.6 routes most recently. This role overlap with Malik Washington creates a crowded target tree in the Dolphins offense.

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Cooper Kupp

PositiveRole27:07

With Garrett Wilson out, Kupp is expected to bounce back as a volume-based play and playmaker. The source notes his target earning has been concerning outside of screen plays, but he has been highly efficient with the ball in hand and can create on his own without needing 12+ targets. The Chiefs allow 59% of receiver catches from the slot, which is a compelling matchup for Kupp's skill set. The source does not expect Kupp to be moved outside; instead, Tim Patrick or Isaiah Williams may fill depth roles.

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Cyrus Allen

PositiveUsage37:34

Cyrus Allen was up to 50% snap participation last week and could continue to grow from there; the source is not playing him this week but flagging him as something to monitor for future weeks as his role expands in the Chiefs offense.

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Emmett Johnson

PositiveUsage34:01

Emmet Johnson was a really awesome contributor last week with a 19% snap share and 25 PPR points, including a touchdown catch. However, his rushing volume is severely limited—he had only one carry (a 15-yard run) and just 4% of rushing attempts. The source was shocked by his snap share when pulling the data, suggesting his role may not be sustainable or may be limited to pass-catching and goal-line work rather than consistent rushing opportunities.

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Hunter Henry

NegativeInjury10:22

Hunter Henry had limited production last week with only 8 routes run, 3 catches for 30 yards, and then suffered an injury in that game, creating a real bummer for fantasy purposes.

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Isaiah Williams

NegativeDepth Chart28:28

Isaiah Williams is a depth option the Texans could deploy outside at receiver with Garrett Wilson sidelined. The source notes the team has already played Williams outside and could utilize him in that role, though the primary expectation is that Cooper Kupp remains in the slot and Mitchell steps into the number-one role.

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Jahmyr Gibbs

PositiveProjection7:26

Gibbs is the absolute best fantasy player available right now and the focal point of the Lions offense in any lead scenario. He has an 18% target share, is incredibly efficient as a receiver, and holds 33% targets per route run on play action. He maintains massive workload projection (23 carries last week, tracking toward 500+ touches over 17 games) and offers dual-threat upside. Against the Dolphins' high coverage base defense that concedes high target rates to running backs and weak run defense, Gibbs has dual-path upside: downside scenario involves running efficiently with 78% of team carries; upside scenario involves racking up targets in addition to efficient rushing, creating a "turbo nuke" outcome.

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Jake Ferguson

PositiveInjury40:12

Jake Ferguson is banged up heading into the Cowboys-Colts matchup, affecting the tight end depth chart and target distribution. With Ferguson's injury status uncertain, other Cowboys pass catchers like Brevin Spanford are positioned to see increased opportunity, though Spanford's full-time role last week did not produce fantasy value.

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Jameson Williams

PositiveMatchup7:03

Williams ranks 92nd percentile in open score and operates as a deep threat with a 15.9 ADOT. The source acknowledges a boom-bust profile but emphasizes this is "a really really good defensive matchup" against the Dolphins, who have surrendered elite EPA per play to multiple opposing quarterbacks (Purdy 100th, Mahomes 94th, Burrow 91st, Gino Smith 85th, Drake Maye 88th).

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Kenneth Walker III

PositiveUsage35:32

Kenneth Walker has been a huge addition to the Chiefs offense with elite home performance; he's averaging 139-191 total yards at home this season and the Chiefs are a 28-point team total at home as nearly double-digit favorites. Last week he had 81% snap share, 88% of carries, and 11% target share with 21.4 expected points per game (fourth highest of the year), though he was minus-nine fantasy points over expected due to inefficiency and goal-line struggles (2 of 19 goal-line conversions). Against the Jets defense, he's set up for a much better day despite recent road performances against tough defenses.

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Malik Washington

PositiveUsage16:09

Operates as an underneath target earner from the slot with 1.72 yards per route run, 96th percentile in open score, and a consistent 24% target share per route run. Despite some disappointment, he's been a reliable target earner and represents a safer bet for targets than Caleb Douglas.

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Malik Willis

NegativeProjection12:03

Willis has played significantly better over the last two games after a rough start to the season; he's QB3 in EPA per game at 12 EPA and QB3 in success rate at 56% over his last two games against Jets and Patriots. Against Lions defense ranked 24th in passing DVOA, 29th in EPA, and 28th in success rate, Willis faces a matchup where he could be inconsistent with big negative plays but also big positive plays. He plays aggressively, holds the ball long, and throws deep with a 16% deep pass rate and 9.3 ADOT.

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Mason Taylor

NegativeRole29:18

Mason Taylor's fantasy value is highly matchup-dependent and concerning due to a tighter split with Sadi Sadi. Taylor and Sadi are now closer to an even split, which made the source nervous about Taylor's workload. Taylor's production is concentrated in games against the Dolphins (his three career games with targets and fantasy points), while he is largely forgotten in other weeks. He also suffered a minor injury late in the recent game.

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Nico Collins

NegativeProjection26:41

Collins serves as a comparison benchmark for Jaylen Mitchell's current performance. Mitchell is operating at 2.52 yards per route run versus Collins' 2.16, and 23% targets per route run versus Collins' 22%, suggesting Mitchell is matching or exceeding an established star's efficiency in the downfield/number-one target earner role.

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Sam LaPorta

PositiveProjection6:08

LaPorta dropped to 73% snap participation last week (season low) against the Vikings, a team that makes pass-catching tight end roles difficult. However, he maintains 84% snap participation for the season and was at 91% two weeks prior. Critically, on play action he posts 28% targets per route run, up from 17% overall for the season. The source projects he is "set up to bounce back very nicely" against the Dolphins' play-action vulnerability.

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Tim Patrick

NegativeDepth Chart28:08

With Garrett Wilson out, Tim Patrick may see increased snaps as a depth/role player. The source suggests Patrick could function as a route-runner to allow other receivers to operate, similar to a supporting role. Patrick has already been deployed in this capacity when Mitchell was out, and the source would not be surprised to see him back up with Wilson sidelined.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

1,921

0:00Welcome to the Legendary Upside podcast and YouTube channel. My name is Pat Crarane. You can follow my content at legendaryupside.com.

0:06With me today, Rich Reebar for our angles and upside pod. Reeves, how's it going?

0:12>> It's going good, man. The halfway point of the season. It feels like we're getting kind of a a week 18 week in the

0:17mid-season uh with all these quarterback change, all these backup quarterbacks.

0:21>> Yeah, week 18 is just the second half of the year now with all these quarterbacks. So, it is uh we we'll get

0:28into it. There are some good games though and there's there's some interesting games in the back half of the slate. The four o'clock four o'clock

0:36window is pretty strong.

0:37>> Um but also some good games up top and then there's kind of this this middle class of games that's not not really

0:43much of a middle this the middle of the sandwich is pretty pretty nasty.

0:49>> We we'll get to that. Um, before I before I do, I'll just say, you know, for at this point, you're probably

0:55familiar with what we're doing here, but I will mention, you know, I wrote up all the games at Legendary Upside in the

1:00walkthrough. Reeves writes them all up at Sharp Football Analysis in the worksheet. Please check out the written articles, uh, you know, supporting

1:08Rich's work and my work is is what allows us to to do this podcast. So, appreciate everyone for subscribing and and reading what we have over there. I

1:16also narrate the walkthrough if you're interested in listening to it. you might be if you're uh if you're the type of

1:20person who listens to a three and a half hour podcast. So, um um but we'll uh we'll go ahead and dive

1:28in here starting with the Lions at Dolphins. And last week we had some success with just getting the wagon of

1:38the week right off at the at the top of the show um and matching what I had for the cover boy uh last week, which was

1:46Jamar Chase and the Bengals offense. So, we can't pick the Bengals again when when you know someone succeeds as the wagon. We we try to stick with them. But

1:54the Bengals are in Madrid. They're not on this slate. We're not covering them.

1:57So, they can't be the wagon of the week.

1:59But the Lions, who actually held up reasonably well on offense against the Vikings, now take on the Dolphins, and they are our wagon of the week.

2:07>> This is our wagon, baby. The wagon of the week.

2:09>> The team's just rolling right now. This team is just They're a wagon.

2:13>> They are [ __ ] wagon.

2:15>> We're going to have a nice old picnic.

2:16load that wagon up like we're whatever you need to put in that wagon.

2:19>> They're a wagon.

2:20>> Yeah, this is our wagon of the week, baby. What does that mean? What does wagon mean?

2:25>> The Lions are I mean, this is a wagon team because they're not great on defense. Uh, as we'll get to, you know,

2:32this the Dolphins could kind of push back here. But let me throw this to you first on the Lions and what you saw from

2:38them last week. Uh, you know, we talked about it. Really interesting setup for the Lions against the Vikings.

2:44Yeah, we're starting to see too, we were kind of wondering it's like how are teams going to start like really what's

2:48the counter for like team the Vikings doing and two games in a row we started to see like teams are just like what if

2:53we just play power football against you and like really try to wear you down and uh the Lions really swerve into that the

3:00second half of that game they really had a lot of success rushing and it wasn't just Jir Gibbs you know it was Son Vaky

3:06too like absolutely getting loose too so something very interesting to see like moving forward especially now that the Vikings like offense

3:13doesn't really run away from anyone.

3:15Maybe Carson Wines changes that, but the fact that they can't >> Yeah, exactly. But the fact that they can't script people out of the run uh is

3:23might be like kind of the thing that is like kind of their undoing a little bit, it'll be something interesting to

3:27follow. Uh, but you can't ask for a better spot to like face that style of defense and then come and go to South

3:35Beach in the 80° sunshine and face this Miami Dolphins defense that, you know, is blitzing at the second lowest rate in

3:42the NFL. They don't pressure the quarterback. And these pocket passers have have really been like their undoing all year, right? like the guys that are

3:52like Brock Pery, uh, you know, this so like Jared Goff like fits right into like what you expect like a guy like

3:59absolutely dissect these guys, right?

4:02High completion rate, high success rate throwers like Joe Burrow like this is this is these are the guys that cook this defense and I expect Jared Goff to

4:11absolutely be hyper efficient here. I mean the the Dolphins have also been killed in the play action game like repeatedly.

4:17>> Yeah, dude. 80% completion rate on play action passes like number one or 32 I should say in yards per completion yards

4:24per pass temp like this is set up for just the Lions offense to be just hyper efficient anytime they throw the

4:30football here.

4:31>> One thing I really like to look at is you know the efficiency on uh things like play action of course but also the

4:38rate that teams are seeing against it.

4:40We see this too with like, you know, oh, this team's really uh they're they're not that efficient against the pass, but

4:46maybe they don't look that bad. And then you see like but everyone's throwing on them, you know, like they're they're >> Yeah.

4:52>> What teams are doing is also important.

4:54And the Dolphins are seeing play action at the highest rate in the league.

4:59>> So, this is like not, you know, just a couple plays that have gone against them. This is this is a true

5:05vulnerability that teams are swerving into. And the Lions have the third highest play action rate this season.

5:11They're the third most efficient play action team for, you know, kind of under the entire Dan Campbell era. Play action has been a staple. Um, when you look at

5:20like how this game unfolds, you know, more specifically, Aman St. Brown has a 39% first rate target share, 24% first

5:31target rate. He's he's the clear focal point of the offense generally. But then when you look at him on play action, he

5:39has a 10.3 ADOT, 2.82 yards per route run. That's up from 8.1 AOT and 2.06 on regular drop backs. Play action's

5:48helping him get a little bit more big plays in in the mix. Like he's going to get fed targets either way, but when you

5:55think about what makes St. Brown go from just like a a kind of steady Eddie to a guy you kind of needed to play that

6:02week, I think play action is a pretty big factor there. He's he's set up to absolutely nuke here.

6:08>> And then when you think about the difference from last week to this week, probably no one jumps out more than Sam

6:13Laora, who was it 73% round participation last week, season low. We talked about it. We predicted it. It's it's going to happen. It's just what the

6:21the Vikings do.

6:22>> They make that pass catching tight end role really difficult. Dalton Concincaid is is gonna, you know, I haven't I haven't written that one up yet, but I'm

6:30I'm uh I'm assuming I'm going to say some things about Concaid not maybe not playing as much because that's just the

6:36way it tends to go. But Leaporta, you know, has 84% round participation for the season. He was at 91% two weeks ago

6:43against the Packers. And he is a huge part of what they're doing on play action. Yep.

6:49>> So, you know, 28% targets per outr run on play action. that's up from 17% uh in his overall, you know, target per

6:58out run for the season. So, he's actually set up to bounce back very nicely. Those are the the kind of the

7:03two weapons that jump out. But Jameson Williams is also like he is 92nd percentile and open score and he's very much a deep threat with a 15.9 ADOT

7:12here. He's going to be, you know, a bit boom bust with that. But this is a really really good defensive match up.

7:19One one thing too you mentioned like G is set up to succeed here as kind of a pocket passer and I completely agree but

7:25like kind of everyone has torched this defense >> struggled in week one 37th percentile in EPA per play and then Kyler Murray

7:33struggled uh in week four 30 31st percentile but Brock Pury was 100th Mahomes 94th Burough 91st Gino Smith

7:4285th Drake May started off slow and then still got there pretty easily 88th percentile last week. So, like it's kind they kind

7:52of just can't stop the pass is is really what it is. And if you give them enough opportunities, uh if you give an an

7:59opposing offense enough opportunities, they they're going to get there. The the Lions have had a tilt to the run this year. You mentioned they went really run

8:08heavy last week. They were also run heavy against the Packers, minus 6% POE two weeks ago, 52% pass rate. So, probably the biggest concern I have for

8:18the Lions offense is that >> yeah, >> they they just run the ball a bunch and they should be playing from ahead. The

8:24Dolphins have been really bad against the run uh as well. So, I mean that that's probably your your biggest concern. And I think, you know, when we

8:32talk about what the fourth quarter looks like, the Lions probably are running a bunch, but um what what are your thoughts on kind of the Lions uh

8:40aggressiveness in this game, which is probably the biggest risk to the offense?

8:46>> Yeah, 100%. Uh you know, just just swerving into being able to run the football here and having success with Jir Gibbs and you know, we'll see if the

8:54Vaky thing is uh shortlived or not. I mean, the the two guys that like we keep waiting for to have a reduction in

9:00opportunity, Kenneth Walker and Jir Gibbs, like you keep looking at their projection like over uh 17 games and you're like, there's no way these dudes

9:07are getting 500 touches. Like when does it finally like start to come off like at least alleviation?

9:12>> Did it really come off last week? He had 23 carries.

9:14>> I know. Yeah. And same thing with like Walker, too. It's like they just keep these guys just keep getting massive

9:20workloads. You're like there's no way they're going to get 480 touches, though, right? Uh but we keep getting there. Uh for sure. Uh so we'll watch

9:28and see if like Vaky works his way in in some of these games that maybe they're they're heavier scripts where to the run

9:33and they're ahead scoreboard which could be here in the second half. But any type of lead that the Lions build is going to

9:40involve Jir Gibbs like to a te the absolute like best fantasy player in that you can have right now. And he's

9:47also awesome in the pass game against a lot of the stuff that the Dolphins do too as well. I mean, Dolphins also face

9:53like a high a really high rate of targets to running backs because they play like so much too high coverage in

9:58base defense. So, Gibbs is going to be a guy I think that's just a really focal point of them bleed building in the

10:04first place.

10:04>> So, I'm not necessarily um concerned about uh you know him conceding any touches in the fourth quarter or anything. But yeah, for for a passing

10:12game stance, like there's this is a game where you could run into like a finite just target count. Uh if you know, we

10:18have 20 say 23 completions, right? Like how did we dissect them around the four guys we really want to play?

10:25>> Yeah, it just you just run into a numbers game in that regard. But I'm with you. I I think this is a great

10:30bounceback spot for Leaporta in particular coming off of two like really hard matchups for tight ends and then getting into a really cushy one. We were

10:37going to get paid out on Hunter Henry last week. I mean, he dude ran three three uh eight routes and had three

10:43catches for 30 yards and then got hurt and it was a real bummer um in that game. So, I think this is a good

10:48bounceback spot for him in particular.

10:52Yeah, I'd also say for Gibbs like you have the setup is there. We expect this team to score points and play from ahead

10:59and maybe run the ball too much against a bad run run run defense with one of the most efficient and explosive runners

11:05in football who leads the NFL with 78% of his team's carries. And that's kind of the downside scenario. And then the

11:12upside scenario is he this guy has an 18% target share.

11:18Incredibly efficient receiver and he has a 33% targets per out run on play action. And you mentioned the Dolphins are conceding a lot of receptions to

11:27running backs. So if the if the Dolphins push back, then we're looking at a guy who's like racking up targets in

11:32addition to probably running pretty efficiently. And that's how you just get like an absolute turbo nuke. So, I mean, Gibbs is it's it's kind of unreal how

11:43like the the range of outcomes for him.

11:46You know, other people's ceiling scenarios are are kind of like when you get disappointed, uh, you know, as far as how the game plays out. So,

11:56um, it's really wild. The Dolphin side of this, Malik Willis has played a lot better over the last two weeks. Um he

12:05was he was pretty rough to begin the season, but over the last two weeks or last three weeks, last two games for

12:10him. Uh he's quarterback three in EPA per game at 12 EPA per game, quarterback three in success rate at 56%. So he has

12:17played a lot better against the Jets and the Patriots. And then he gets a Lions defense that's 24th in in passing DVOA,

12:2429th in EPA, 28th in success rate. They have a really good pass rush. Uh Ali McNeel and Aiden Hutchinson are both

12:33playing awesome this year, but they're not like super blitzheavy, and they're pretty bad in coverage. So, it's the type of game where you could see Willis

12:45probably be pretty inconsistent, probably have some big negative plays, but he could also have some big positive plays. He is playing aggressive. He

12:52holds the ball for for a long time, but he throws deep.

12:56>> 16% deep pass rate, 9.3 ADOT. So, it's like and then the other thing is the Lions or the uh the Dolphins, although

13:04they have, you know, been very tilted to the run, they're getting this Lions pass defense that is like pass funnel underells it like this is an aggression

13:12funnel. Um opponents have a 69% pass rate and they're playing with the highest pace in the league. So, you got like everyone knows, we we've talked

13:23about this for weeks, like you have to put up points if if you're going to make a serious attempt to win a game against

13:28the Lions. Uh, what are your thoughts on how much the Dolphins can hang here?

13:33>> Yeah, I mean the we talked about it when Josh Jacobs come back and just like I just feel like teams inherently know when they face the

13:40Lions like they need to score like and they they have that mindset, you know?

13:44So, hopefully Bobby Slo is part of the group that understands that as well.

13:47like you you need to score points against the Detroit Lions and you have to approach that you're going to outscore them as well and you you are a

13:55team that you if you're the Dolphins too like you have to be thinking internally like we're not stopping these guys >> like you know you could try to slow the

14:02game down all you want but like you're just going to give up points basically every drive in this game or most of them

14:06um unless something fluky happens. Uh the Lions are pretty banged up coming into this game too. They were starting to get some guys back. Obviously we had

14:14the scary Jack Campbell injury. Uh DJ Wanom and Brian Branch, I believe, are still in concussion protocol. I don't think either one is cleared this week.

14:23Uh but it looks like Kirby Joseph's going to still be a week away, too. So, they're missing some guys coming into

14:29this game as well. And the Dolphins have at least found a way to score some points on some on uh some some good

14:35defenses like the Patriots last week.

14:37It's like they were never really like a threat to like win that game, but they were just good enough to push a little

14:41bit back. And that's like all we really want here at all. Uh they've been really good on third downs the past three

14:46weeks. Um they're second in the league in converting third downs. They've just been a little bit better and not being like super behind the sticks and they're

14:53actually seventh in touchdown rate per drive the past three weeks too when they were dead last before. So if we can just

14:58get like if if the Dolphins somehow like flirt with 20 points, which I do believe is possible against this team, uh this

15:05defense especially. I think their implied total is like 22 like right around there. That's like more than enough to I think drive the Lions to

15:11potentially put up like 40. Yeah. Yeah.

15:14Yeah. That's the thing because the Lions are kind of like they're kind of nuts.

15:18Like if you if you push back a little, you know, that that can kind of keep them uh keep them aggressive. Yeah. Last

15:24I saw was 21.75 for for the Dolphins. So I mean, >> you know, this is not this is not 15, you know, this is not uh 18, right? Like

15:34there's a big difference to get up into the 20s.

15:36>> Yeah. They were scoring like the first month it was like they scored like 10 10 to 13 points every game. Like it was

15:40just like a like this is unserious operation. And now they actually look like while we wouldn't like label them a good offense, like they're at least like

15:48functional compared to some other teams.

15:50Now, >> what's interesting is that um you look at their receivers, Chris Bell has not really delivered 0.99 yards per route

15:59run. He's moved into this underneath role eights the last two years, four last two weeks, sorry, four and 3.6. Um, and

16:09that's not ideal because you also have Malik Washington is is kind of a more underneath target earner out of the slot. Uh, so he's been a disappointment.

16:17But Greg Doulich has been playing more recently. He's at 1.68 yards per route run. Malik Washington's at 1.72.

16:26He's 96th percentile in open score as well and has been a really consistent target earner. 24% targets per out run.

16:32And then Caleb Douglas is at 2.11 yards per route run. and profiling as a legit field stretcher. Um, you know, maybe

16:39he's, as far as we think about like what does he look like in two or three years, I'm not sure like how much more leveling

16:45up there is for Douglas, but he's doing the thing he does well. And when I think about like what this matchup could look

16:54like, again, I'm not like real sold that Willis can be super consistent here, but >> can he have big plays?

17:03>> Probably. Will he get a lot of attempts?

17:05You know, yeah, probably if they're if the Dolphins are serious about about trying to win. And then so Caleb Douglas, you know, could have a few more

17:13deep shots in this game than than we normally see. And he's converted really well so far. He's at 12.6 yards per

17:19target. Like he's he's actually been a good deep threat for this team. So he jumps out as um you know, a fairly

17:26interesting option on the Dolphins side.

17:28And and Malik Washington's been good, too. I I don't want to underell what he's doing. He's probably a safer bet just for targets, but I think Caleb

17:35Douglas is a little more interesting when you think about, you know, getting loose for for some big plays.

17:40>> Yeah, Caleb Douglas is my favorite Dolphins play in this game. I know, you know, obviously the flowchart will guide everyone to Dulich, who I think no push

17:47back at Dulich either. You play follow the flowchart, but uh especially because I forgot to DJ Reid is out for this game

17:54too for the Lions. Uh so that that is huge for Caleb Douglas too. Uh, you know, like you said, he's just been he

18:01he's rolled like a good match for for Malik Willis's play style. Um, talked about it for a couple weeks ago. I mean,

18:07he's also I mean, he's the wide receiver 26 in fantasy points per out run. You said the wide receiver 22 in yards per

18:12out run. Like, he's delivering >> u as kind of like this, you know, upside wide receiver two role. He he also ran

18:19the most routes on the team last week.

18:20It just didn't really show up in the box score because he got Christian Gonzalez the most of the guys. He had a nice

18:25>> He was also double teamed 35% of the time, which is a fairly high rate.

18:29>> He had a Yeah, it's basically we talk about the Patriots like they're one of two. Like you either get Christian

18:33Gonzalez or you get double teamed if you're an outsider. Like it's one of the two if you're an outside receiver. Like

18:38you either see Christian Gonzalez that play or you see two guys, which will be fun when we get to the Packers stuff.

18:43>> Uh >> but with DJ Reed being out too and in this matchup, I mean Dolph uh Lions are already 31st in points allowed per game

18:51to wide receiver one targets. And if you want to take umbrage of who that is, that's fine. He did run the most routes

18:55of the guys last week and he plays like more of the vertical outside role anyways. So, I do think that they were

19:01kind of easing him back in two weeks ago and then last week was like no, they were going back to the plan I think that

19:06we were going to see in week one that he was kind of the guy that they were going to build this passing game around a

19:11little bit. Um, but they their team when you look at it's like all these young receivers are playing, the pass catchers

19:17are playing, but I like him the most of the guys here. And then like you said, Washington more of like a a floor-based

19:23guy who you could definitely play in this game and we're expecting more volume.

19:26>> Um he did get the touchdown last week, but you know, he typically is more of a a lower A dot guy uh that's going to

19:33give you like, you know, that four to six catches that you'll play.

19:37>> Yeah, he's more like kind of a fill-in option in in season long. more like I mean he could certainly get there in DFS

19:44especially if the >> the game is like really really high volume and there's just like you know you're actually getting there on

19:50reception volume in a way that's unusual for a Dolphins receiver but because of his target earning skill set maybe maybe you know not that farfetched for him but

20:00yeah I I like Douglas more too and then Doulich you know the the flowchart you need a guy to actually be playing uh for

20:08the flowchart to work but he he was at 69% rappers participation against the Jets and then 72% against the Patriots.

20:15He's had uh 28% targets per out run and 23% targets per out runs over those two weeks. 4.78 and 1.65 yards per route

20:23run. So, he's been getting targets and delivering, you know, pretty efficiently over this span. And this coincides with when Willis has played better. It also

20:34coincides with them coming out of their week six buy. So, you know, like it seems like Doulich has maybe consolidated a little bit more of the of

20:42the role here. He's at 1.68 yards per out run for the season, 60th percentile in open score. Like, you know, he's he's

20:50not amazing, but it seems like he's kind of settled in as like a a number one tight end now. Um, in a way that we can

20:59maybe rely on. We'll see if he if he flops here, we're like, well, goodbye.

21:05Yeah. The one the one worry is he he hasn't had like high utilization in the red zone. Like I mean he's three red

21:10zone targets, one end zone target like so they haven't really gotten him involved in that area. And sometimes that archetype of tight end does get

21:17kind of froze out in the red zone because you're going heavy you're playing heavier stuff in the red zone, heavier offense and he's not that he's

21:24not that guy. So maybe the flowchart doesn't get there because you look at like the last two weeks they the Lions

21:28didn't give up a lot of yards to Hawinson and Craft, but those are the guys that play in the red zone and they

21:33were able to get through and get that get that touchdown.

21:36>> Yeah, he's he's kind of gassiki-esque, right? And so you're going to have >> you know who scored last was it

21:42injuries? Who who was it?

21:43>> Uh yeah, injuries and Yeah. Yeah. So >> well Gazi scores every week so apparently he's >> Yeah. like a blocking tight end uh you

21:56know might end up scoring a touchdown here instead of Dulich. But >> yeah, who's it? Is it uh Will Kmar or

22:01whatever?

22:02>> Dude from Ohio State.

22:03>> Yeah.

22:04>> Yeah. Um I I wonder if uh Davis will have uh first touchdown. Will Will Kasmar.

22:12>> A He should, man. He should.

22:13>> He should. Right. He's he's been doing uh low probability touchdown props all year. That that one might actually might actually connect.

22:23Uh Ali Gordon, any thoughts on him against a a Lions run defense that's kind of middling below average? Gordon's been dominating snaps and he's coming

22:32off 79% of attempts against the Patriots.

22:35>> Yeah, a fine volume plays the RB RB2 needs touchdown uh because he's not catching the ball at all like like no

22:44impact in the pass game whatsoever. But dominating snaps and and backfield touches. It's just that they're all runs. So, you need him to get in the

22:51box. We said, we talked about him last week. We're like, hey, we know it's been good. He's been run hot in touchdowns,

22:57like when he finally doesn't score a touchdown, like the floor is pretty low here and finally happened. But he is just a guy that you could play through

23:05volume. And if this game is going to have an increased opportunity for scoring chances overall, >> like, you know, you just hope he gets in

23:12the box >> 100%. He he also has some breakaway ability.

23:17>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Um, and so yeah, he's kind of he's kind of boom bust like higher play volume overall. I really

23:23just hope the Dolphins don't try to like sit on the ball and limit possessions and stuff. That's actually not >> that great for Gordon because he's not

23:30like this consistent chunk runner type guy. He's he's more of a boom bust. He's like a big boom bust runner.

23:38>> Um, all right, let's move to the Jets at Chiefs.

23:43uh thoughts on uh the the Jets offense here against a a Chiefs defense that looked the Chiefs defense has either

23:53been like really good or like very vulnerable. And uh we've seen we've seen uh three quarterbacks below the 30th percentile on EPA per play against them,

24:04which was Bo Nicks in week one, Malik Willis in week three, and Justin Herbert uh in week six. And then three

24:12quarterbacks, 70th percentile or better, which was Daniel Jones in week two, Kirk Cousins in week four, and Bo Knicks again, actually four quarterbacks. Bon

24:21Knicks again last week, and then Sam Darnold in week seven. One thing that jumps out to me there is like this team

24:26has not faced a particularly difficult quarterback schedule.

24:29>> No, they have.

24:30>> They have shut some guys down, but they've also gotten uh lit up by by some quarterbacks as well. And they really

24:37haven't faced any of the best quarterbacks in the league. So, you know, this defense doesn't look particularly great, but what are what

24:44are your thoughts on the Jets offense?

24:46>> Yeah, I I still feel pretty optimistic.

24:48I know that the, you know, it's not a great spot, right? You're on the road in Arrowheads. You don't have a high team

24:53total and you don't have Garrett Wilson.

24:54Like, I'm not going to say like I'm I'm bullish on the Jets, but I do think Gino Smith is playing to a level where he can

25:01complete passes and this is a I for two weeks we've been saying, "All right, Bruce Hall's coming back." And he hasn't. I think he is coming back this

25:08week. We'll see. uh when we turn over the cards, but if Bree Hall's back, I think you have a capable run game and

25:13you still have viable pass catchers.

25:15Like in the past without Garrett Wilson, we'd be like, "Holy [ __ ] like these guys got nothing." Uh but, you know,

25:20with Adai Mitchell and Omar Cooper uh able to able to be up. You've got some you got some really nice guys I think

25:27that could be reserved, especially when we're going to increase volume because we think they're going to have to throw here, too. Uh, I'm so optimistic that

25:33they won't completely flatline here and it won't be a complete dog walking of the Chiefs defense versus this offense.

25:40I think they're going to be able to move the football a little bit and put up some points. Um, definitely don't

25:45wouldn't pick them to win this game or anything, but I do think that Cooper and Adai Mitchell can can have success here

25:50through value.

25:52>> I do too. Cooper has been pretty involved on screens. Um, and you know, they're trying to get him the ball. uh

26:01except last week when he when he didn't get a target, but you know, he's obviously going to be part of the plan

26:08here to try to make up for for Wilson being out.

26:11>> Mhm.

26:12>> Mitchell, I think, is is really the key because he's been he's been really good this year as an actual like real life

26:20receiver. Watching that game last week, he was just a getting open downfield.

26:26>> He's always got like the film bros said like this dude gets open. Yeah, I mean his an open score, he's 90th percentile

26:34this year. Garrett Wilson's 97th and you know that that dude's going to just earn targets about as well as anybody in the

26:41league year in year out. But but Mitchell operates a lot further downfield. He has an 18.2 ADOT.

26:47comparing him to like Nico Collins, you know, a little bit is is what he could be, you know, uh, without Wilson where

26:56you're like talking about the number one target earner and, uh, a downfield threat. Now, you know, Mitchell's had a nice run here. Collins is an established

27:06star, but Mitchell's at 2.52 yards per outr run this year, uh, which is above Nico 2.16. He's got a 23% targets per

27:14outr run, which is above Nico at 22%.

27:16like he's he's doing Nico Collins stuff right now. I don't know if it's going to hold up, but it's it's pretty impressive

27:22where he's at and I think he's going to be like the clear the true number one for the offense. Tara McLaren comes to

27:30mind as well as like the kind of the deep threat >> also number one guy with Wilson out. I think that's what Mitchell's going to

27:38try to step into. Um, but yeah, I think Cooper should bounce back here as as kind of a volume based play slash

27:47ballinand playmaker. I mean, he's not his target earning has been a little concerning outside of the screen stuff, but he's been really really efficient

27:54when he has the ball in his hand. So, Cooper I do like as well. Um, yeah, that's what I like about him is that he

28:01can create on his own. Like he doesn't necessarily need to always have the 12 targets, right? like for maybe like a

28:09typical like >> and we haven't really seen we see we got to see some of it in the Miami game but

28:13like we still haven't even seen the fully like unccoring of like this the yak the yak stuff that this guy can

28:19create. Um and this would be a good spot to to utilize him too. I mean Chiefs have been pretty vulnerable to slot

28:25receivers. I mean 59% of the catches they allow to receivers have been from the slot. I think that's the comp the

28:30compelling part here is I don't think they're going to throw him out with Wilson out. I don't think they're just going to throw him outside. I wouldn't

28:36be surprised if we see Tim Patrick back up.

28:39>> Yeah.

28:40>> And him just like be like the Ogan Bali of receivers that we always talk about like this dude's just out here running

28:45routes, man. So the other guys could do their thing. Uh I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen. Uh they've also

28:51played Isaiah Williams a little bit outside too. So they could just throw Isaiah Williams out there, too. But I don't think because Wilson's out that

28:58they're just gonna like make Cooper play different position, so to speak.

29:02>> Yeah. No, that makes a ton of sense. And they have they've already like done Patrick's been out there and run a bunch

29:07of routes >> when Mitchell was out and stuff. So >> that's Yeah.

29:10>> He was last week, but I wonder if now that Wilson's out like they'll bring him back up and just >> I I would guess so. Yeah. Uh any

29:18thoughts on the tight end position where where Taylor was um Taylor and Sadi are kind of closer to an even split. It

29:24mostly just made me nervous about Taylor.

29:26>> Yeah, 100%. He got banged up towards the end of the game, too, but uh yeah, it was a little bit it was a little bit

29:32tighter. We talked about it going into that game. It's like, well, just always want to play Mason Taylor against the Dolphins. Like those are his three

29:37career games for uh targets and fantasy points and then every other week we just kind of forget he exists.

29:43>> It's like Jake Ferguson against the Commanders.

29:46>> That's it, man. That's the only time.

29:48But yeah, Sadi was getting a little more ramped up a little bit last week, too.

29:51So, we could see him play, too. I mean, like I said, the Chiefs have been a little bit more of an interior funnel,

29:55but like you said, like uh I'm at least holding uh like holding out to say like I don't know how sticky that is because

30:02of some of the quarterbacks and teams that they face, too.

30:04>> Yeah.

30:04>> So, just kind of keeping an open mind out like there are some teams where we know like they're an interior funnel

30:09like and it makes sense like the like the Bengals, right? Because you have DJ Turner on the outside, you have bad

30:14linebackers. Like we understand why that's happening. Colts, same reason.

30:18Like, you know, we understand why they're an interior funnel as well. The Chiefs I'm still waiting to see. I know Monser Delane is is a good young player,

30:25but I'm waiting to see still if like maybe they just some of these quarterbacks will challenge them outside a little bit more because we saw

30:30Seahawks do it, but that's again you just you can't check JSN, so what are you going to do, >> right? Um in the back field, Chiefs look

30:40decent against the run. It's a good week to get Bree Hall back though because, you know, he offers so much more as a

30:46receiver than Brilin Allen. Uh he has 2.37 yards per route run this year with Allen at 0.65.

30:53So adding that versatility back to the backfield would be pretty key here. It does look like Hall's going to play, but

30:59then of course Hall and Allen are going to be splitting. Allen's been too efficient as a runner for them to just

31:05go back to Hall owning this backfield.

31:07It has to be a split going forward, I think, unless Hall can, you know, maybe he can earn back a bigger role with

31:14better efficiency on the ground. But for now, you'd have to think Allen is is eating into the rushing workload. But um

31:22at the same time, the matchup is better for for Hall. And you know, he was the starter before he got hurt. So

31:29>> your road dogs.

31:30>> Any interest in either of these guys?

31:31>> Yeah. And your road dogs. I mean, the the big thing is just going to see like if it's where Hall is completely like

31:37shut out at the goal line. That's the worry, right? That's because if you have it where Hall is a guy that can get you

31:43some explosives, but they're splitting some rushing work, but he just can't score touchdowns, that's that's problematic. And then if you have it in

31:50in attach that where Bray Allen's not catching any passes, but he is only like relying on them getting like inside the

31:56five to get you over. It is kind of a potential nightmare split for fantasy gamers. A decent problem for the real

32:02Jets, but for us, it seems like it could be a little bit of a frustrating split for us.

32:06>> Yeah. Brilan Allen's floor now becomes like Chris Rodriguez or something, right?

32:10>> You know, it gets it and it should be better than that, but that's >> it's like guy doesn't score a touchdown.

32:17It gets that's rough quick.

32:19>> Yeah. Yeah. I mean, you're hoping maybe you could say like he's Blake Cororum, but the offense probably isn't good enough to to to say.

32:26>> That's the upside is he's Blake Cororm, >> right?

32:28>> Yeah.

32:30But yeah, I think Hall is someone I'm trying not to play this week if I can help it. But I think, you know, in some

32:38spots I think I'll I'll throw him in there as like a >> Yeah. And a lot of people might not have

32:42that luxury, >> right? Exactly. I There are some teams I'm thinking about where I'm like, I'm going to end up playing Hall

32:49>> 100%.

32:50>> But yeah, not not super excited about it. Chief side, Chiefs are are getting more and more pass heavy it looks like

32:57to me. I mean, they literally just had a a rematch with the Broncos in week one.

33:03They had a 0% pass rate of expected both overall and on first and 10. Um, and then last week they were at 7% overall

33:12and 9% on first and 10. That's uh second highest uh on the on the year in both of those. and they're up to a 4% pass rate

33:22of expected on the season, which is the third highest rate behind the Bengals and the Packers. So, we're we're seeing the Chiefs start to look like the

33:31Chiefs. They got Rashi Rice back last week. Um, you know, this is not like they still don't like I hope they're

33:41calling about Brian Thomas. I really hope they're calling about Brian Thomas.

33:44Um Josh Downs maybe, but that you know they kind of need the field stretcher element back. But even with them not

33:52being like the most exciting passing game, they still are passing a lot. Em EMTT Johnson obviously was was a really awesome contributor last week.

34:01>> He looked amazing. Jeez, >> he looked amazing. Unlimited volume. I was shocked when I when I pulled it up.

34:06I was like, "Oh, he had a 19% snap share. Scored 25 BPR points." But uh yeah, but anyway, >> he I know he had like the uh the

34:16awesome, you know, touchdown catch, but he he had one carry. It was like the best 15 yard run I ever seen. But I was

34:23like holy >> 4% of attempts though, he he was barely used at all.

34:27>> No, if you go to like cuz like you know, you would think like there we might start to see him how he's looked like

34:33some like Kale and Black type sneaking in, but there's been none of that. Like he he he is he has one or zero carries

34:40in I think three of the past four games.

34:42Yeah, it's wild. Uh the Jets have um against the past this year, they're 26th in DBA, 28th in EPA, 24th in success

34:52rate. They started out reasonably well against the pass. But the last three games they've played, Drake May was 87th percentile in EPA per play. Then Malik

35:01Willis 98th percentile and Kurt Cousins was just 98th percentile. So I mean Tyson Beant was good against this defense. Jared Goff cooked them back in

35:12week three. Um, I'm not sure like what happened like why Jordan Love wasn't amazing against them. I kind of know what happened when Cam Ward and Deshun

35:22Watson didn't play well against them.

35:24But like this defense, it it's bad. And it's like one of those ones where we thought for a second it might not be bad

35:32and now it's just it's like I think lean into like no no, this defense is is one to attack. you're getting an offense

35:40that is very much looking to attack through the air. You know, that kind of the classic Chiefs Benemy style. I I do

35:48expect them to attack where the Jets are weakest and where they're strongest, even though, you know, Kenneth Walker has been a huge addition to the to the

35:55offense.

35:56>> Yeah, that this one they could have been in contention, I think, for for wagon status, too. They just aren't as good.

36:01They're not as bankable as the Lions are. Uh, but they're in a great spot because they faced a couple of tough

36:06defenses in a row on the road and now you come home against this Jets defense.

36:12Uh, it feels like a really strong spot for them to to basically score a lot of points. Uh, particularly, you know,

36:18through through the way of Patrick Mahomes, who who I thought played one of his better games of the season last Sunday, especially in the first half. I

36:24don't know if it was just getting Rashi Rice back was enough to make this offense kind of work a little bit

36:28better, but they did play a lot better until the very end of that game.

36:32>> Until the very end. until the very end.

36:35>> Yeah, I mean, you know, that was obviously pretty disappointing uh that they're not able to punch on that touchdown, lose the game. He was still

36:4272nd percentile in EPA per play and you would have like he lost EPA on that on that final drive like he's you're

36:50supposed to score there.

36:52>> Um their win percentage like absolutely tanked. They were most teams are going to win the game in that situation and they and they did

37:00blow that but he was still he's still at 11.1 EPA last week which is quarterback 8 52% success rate quarterback 10.

37:07>> So Mahomes did have a really nice game last week and Rashi Rice being back helped. He was kind of back in the the

37:14more like typical Rashi Rice role 2.4 A dot. Um, but yeah, I do think that, you know, there's nothing like Kelsey kind

37:23of doing Kelsey things, Rice doing Rice things worthy not mattering like >> this offense is kind of what you expect

37:34it to be, I think. Um, I will note Cyrus Allen was up to 50% round participation last week and and could continue to grow

37:40from there. I not playing him at all this week, but something to keep an eye on. Mhm.

37:44>> Um, >> but yeah, nothing too crazy to say about the the Chiefs passing game other than I do think they they put up a lot of

37:52points. They might not have to pass like that high of a percentage though, depending on how much the Jets push them. But again, the the Chiefs defense

37:59has really had some let down. So, this this has the potential to to be, you know, a real back and forth game um if

38:07the Jets can can put up points without Garrett Wilson, >> right? Yeah. 100%. Yeah.

38:14Kenneth Walker, any any thoughts on him coming off this game where, you know, he only scores 12.4 points, 9.7 the week

38:22before against Seattle. Um, any notes on him?

38:27>> I mean, just like again, you face two good defenses on the road. You know, I don't want to look too much into it. Uh,

38:32beyond that, I mean, he's still getting a super high workload. The the only thing I would say is like, you know,

38:37there is some like underlying stuff that he was getting away with early in the season because he's Kenneth Walker where like the Chief's offensive line clearly

38:44still isn't a good run blocking unit, but he creates so much on his own. Like he was able to mask some of that. But

38:50he's been awesome at home this year.

38:52Like the the the first first home game 191 total yards, second 178 total yards, sec 139 yards at home this season.

39:00They're they're 20 28 point team total at home as nearly double digit favorites. like these are the spots you just lock in. He also the other thing

39:07that too I think ties into the offensive line. The one little thing I think you can nitpick him is he's terrible at the

39:12goal line. Um and that's something that has followed him a little bit in his career, but he's only converted two of

39:1819 goal to go runs now. Uh the only back worst is uh Ashton J who's one for 10.

39:24It's funny if you can combine Mike Washington who's 0 for eight. Like that's pretty bad overall. Uh but uh yeah, that's the one little nitpick is

39:32maybe like that there's that, but this is a spot where you look at objectively and you're like he's going to get back

39:37going here it looks like.

39:39>> Yeah. And under the hood even last week, uh pull up Kenneth Walker, 81% of snaps, 88% of carries, and 11% target share,

39:49which I was surprised at how high that was given that Emma Johnson, I believe, was at 14%. Yeah, he was at 14% last

39:55week. And then Walker had 21.4 expected points per game, which is his fourth highest of the year because he's had really strong workloads. But that's a

40:05that's a good workload for running back.

40:07So, you know, he was really inefficient.

40:09Minus nine fantasy points over expected, which is his worst mark of the year.

40:13>> And then all those goal line carries goal line stuff. Yeah.

40:16>> All those expected points.

40:18>> That's rough. But I mean, he should have had a much better day and is set up for a much better day here. Uh I I'm going

40:26right back to Walker. I'm not I'm not worried about him.

40:30>> Uh Cowboys at Colts.

40:32One of the the interesting things here is you're getting a lot of man coverage um from the Colts, which you know, they

40:39have Sash Gardner back now and you know, Travarius Ward has played well as well.

40:45Um you talk about them being an interior funnel. Uh Jake Ferguson's banged up.

40:52Brevin Span forward got a full-time role last week. That didn't really do anything for us.

40:57>> Um, could that help CD Lamb who's who's pretty good against man and also can play in the slot and and move around?

41:04Uh, what are your thoughts for how this sets up for the Colts passing or for the uh the Cowboys passing game?

41:10>> Yeah, big time spot it looks like uh for CD Lamb who's just run like really weird. Like the last four weeks he has a

41:1750% uh catch rate. 20% of his targets have been inaccurate. Uh if you just chop the season in half, the first four

41:23weeks he had an 80% catch rate and 4% inacurate target rate. I'm pretty sure those are going to meet in the middle

41:28somewhere. Uh he's number two in the NFL in target share behind JSN. And I know that the the owner and coach have talked

41:36about getting George Pickkins the football more, but you know, Pickkins is banged up now. On top of the shoulder injury, he has a hamstring coming into

41:43this weekend. And the matchup's just not great for him. He we talk about like the Colt he's played 92% of his snaps out

41:48wide where the Colts they don't face a lot of pass volume because they're bad in the first place. Uh but it they're

41:56when you look under the hood underneath the volume like they're third and catch rate allowed outside receivers, second in yards for target. So those guys are

42:01legitimately doing good job. Sarder is like the third lowest targeted cornerback in terms of uh snaps too uh in coverage. And then also Pickkins

42:10hasn't been good against man coverage this year in in general. Uh 1.2 2 yards per out run. He's only seeing target on

42:1621% of his routes against man coverage.

42:18So, even when I wrote this up, I was like, damn, are they like are the Cowboys going to do a dumbass Cowboys

42:22thing where like we got to get pickings the ball more in a matchup that doesn't even that doesn't even is even good for

42:28him when it's clearly good for, you know, uh your your star wide receiver that's already earning targets and, you know, and you know, Fenoy, too, because

42:36a lot of people think of Fenoy as just the slot only guy, but like him and Lamb mix up, especially in 11 personnel where

42:42that's where CDI Lamb starts to get in some of his routes from the slot, too.

42:46So, those are the two guys I look at it from saying like you have a clear advantage for these two players. Uh what

42:51if we didn't just try to jam the ball into George Pickkins here?

42:55>> Yeah, I completely agree. Um and you you have, you know, the potential for like you can get Lamb into the slot and have

43:03him not going against Gardner or Ward.

43:07Um Wall-E is their their slot corner.

43:09He's been a liability. And so, yeah, this this could be a really nice setup for for CD Lamb. And and then Ryan

43:17Florenoi hasn't really done a ton over the last few weeks, but he's like so clearly the number three option now with

43:26with Ferguson falling off. And >> like I said, Span Forward had more of a role last week, 74% route participation, but had a 14% targets per out run.

43:35he was coming on the field and then getting targeted at a really high rate um in in very low route participation

43:43type of roles.

43:44>> And that can kind of go one of two ways.

43:46It's like, oh, you're we have like a little you we have some plays for you when when you're on the field or it

43:52could just be kind of noise and then that can just evaporate or it can be a sign of like no no this is a guy they

43:57really like his pass catcher kind of seems like the former there where he's not >> a huge part of what they're trying to

44:04do. Um, you know, from a from a game level sense, from an entire from an entire game's worth of snaps, >> right?

44:10>> Um, Florenoi hasn't been like anything real special, but 17% targets per outr run, 1.33 yards per outr run. He's not

44:20nothing either, so he's kind of interesting here. As you mentioned, he could be in the slot some or outside. I mean, he was only 32% slot rate last

44:28week. Uh, so he's predominantly outside actually against the the Cardinals.

44:32>> Yeah. say like when they're going to 11, that's when they're usually getting Lamb like inside. Like they're moving Lamb into stacks and getting him around uh

44:39moving him around. Um >> but yeah, he's kind of doing like the poor man's Jaylen Null thing where >> he's like giving you some touchdowns,

44:47he's making a play, he's getting you he's like logging like top top 40 weeks and then when you you're like, "Oh,

44:53well, he hasn't had more than four targets in a game, you know, like >> Yeah.

44:57>> You know what I mean? Like kind of like that. So like I'm not expecting the world of him either. He's kind of more

45:01of like a matchup like I expect him to throw. Hopefully maybe Pickkins is banged up to the point too where like he

45:06has to have a little more on his plate and then um the fact that you know Jake Ferguson's not playing and Brevin Span

45:12forward. We haven't seen him. I don't know if they've thrown a forward pass to Brevin Spanford yet you know more than

45:18more than two yards downfield.

45:21>> Yeah. His A dots over the last three weeks have been 5.8 1.5 and 2.5. But before that was Yeah. minus two against

45:29the Texans, minus three against minus3.

45:34>> Um the when I look at how Lamb doesn't get there, I I'm less nervous about Pickkins and more nervous about Javvante

45:42Williams because you have the Colts terrible against the runs run. They're 30 30th in DVOA, 29th in EPA, 20th in success rate.

45:52>> Um and then the the Cowboys, they were really run heavy against the Eagles. They were tilted to the run last

45:59week against the Cardinals.

46:02We talked about it last week, you know, they shift to the run, they win on prime time against division rival. Troy Aman's

46:10calling the game. It's like, oh my god, this is amaz like this is football. This is what football's supposed to be. You

46:17know, Dak Prescott had been inefficient.

46:19He he bounces back really efficient game, but they're they're leaning on the run, unlocking the passing efficiency.

46:26They were like a lock to have a negative pass rate over expected last week. They didn't go crazy, but they were minus 3%

46:30and then they then they blow a game for the Cardinals >> and they lose the game.

46:34>> And they lose a game in a game where they bench their starting quarterback.

46:39>> How does that happen? So, I'm hopeful now that they've been kind of like, oh, uh, simply running the ball isn't going

46:48to just lead to wins. Um, it's more complicated than that. So my my hope is that they are, you know, not like overly

46:56tempted to run run the ball. It's fine obviously to run the ball against a bad run defense, but >> Dak Prescott is the engine of this

47:04offense and I and I kind of hope they get back to that here, but there is a risk uh with the Colts being a run

47:10funnel. The Jags in week eight, they had a 40% pass rate against the Colts, minus 15% pass rate of expected, and had no

47:18trouble with them. And you know that we could see that here and that would obviously hurt CD Lamb and the rest of

47:24the pass catchers. It would help Javvante Williams who had an an expected points workload last week of 20.6 scores 6.7 points. So he completely flops

47:35against the Cardinals. But they could go back to him here and you know he's set up for a pretty strong game I would say.

47:43>> Yeah, I I would agree. It's it's like you know people always talk when we talk about passation like we we don't we

47:50encourage you if you're running well to keep running like if you're running like they were two weeks ago. It's when you

47:54do stuff like last week and you're like well we're going to run and you're like all right cool. How's it going? Well our

48:00guy has 24 carries for 56 yards and his longest run is six yards. Well maybe you shouldn't do that. Like like

48:07>> Yeah. Also, like when you're burning runs on first down and then you're not passing well, but it's like you're starting at second and nine every time,

48:14is that maybe hurting the passing game?

48:18>> Yeah, we don't care if you're lining up and ripping off eight run. Like, go ahead, keep running, man. Keep running

48:22by all means. Uh, and that's the concern, right? Because we saw the first game without DeForest Buckner and they got absolutely just cooked like just

48:30absolutely like the Jaguars backfield like 230 yards uh against them. Uh, so that's the one concern like you said is if you know they do have success running

48:40early, do they kind of stick with it? I feel like they do need to get Dak going though. Uh, Dak's having a really weird

48:46year. Um, where if like you look at the top down metrics the Cowboys, you're like, "Oh, the offense is still good,

48:50right?" And it is like they they show up as a good they're a top 10 team in scoring. They're averaging points a

48:55game, but like Dak is on a career low trajectory now for yards or pass attempt. Uh, he's thrown one or fewer

49:01touchdowns in five of his past six games. It's like there's just it just feels like too when you watch the Cowboys like it just something just

49:07doesn't feel right with their offense and Dak is usually a guy like you like even when it's going bad you're like Dak

49:13is really good. You're like Dak's good like something just feels off with the passing game right now and this would be

49:19a spot for them to really get going because the Colts have no pass rush.

49:22>> Uh they don't care really right now like you know uh so it's like and then when they don't they don't breathe on the

49:29quarterback they've been really bad uh as well. So, you keep Dak from a clean pocket, you feel like he would be able

49:34to be efficient here. But I would have said that last week, too, and it wasn't the case.

49:39>> One thing that's interesting about the Cowboys is they have been getting blitzed a lot. Um, and Dak usually cooks the blitz, but they haven't been great

49:47against the Blitz this year, and there's been certain games like against the Bucks where >> the Packers and Bucks game.

49:52>> Yeah. Just like what's going on? like Dak is there they are blitzing Dak with the idea like with that he's not going

50:00to be able to handle it which is not what we usually see um you know that's not how teams treat Dak Prescott

50:08typically for for good reason that that's generally not effective. So yeah, to me that's um whatever's going on there is like I think part of why the

50:18Cowboys don't really look like the Cowboys. The Colts blitz at a really low rate. They're they're 29th in blitz per drop back. So I This is a game where,

50:26you know, to the extent that the blitz is part of the, you know, um, Dak struggles, he should be fine here. He's not going

50:33to, you're not going to see a ton of it.

50:35>> Yeah. I think I think this is a spot that where he gets back some efficiency.

50:38Should be able to like I mean, the Colts just look like this team like right like they've openly told us like they're not

50:44trying anymore to win g like really to win games at this point. Uh, so >> yeah, >> I expect them to be a team we just kind

50:52of look at every week and it's just like, well, who what offense is playing these guys?

50:56>> It's crazy, man. They were the original wagon.

50:59>> They were such a wagon that we were like, what what is a wagon? Who is a who is going to be a wagon in the future? We

51:08>> entered the leagon because of this theme.

51:10>> Yeah, they're the reason because I forget who had the original quote. They were like calling him a wagon. We were

51:15like, what is that? Like, what are we talking?

51:16>> Everyone. No, just like every single football like commentator main it's like mainstream real football was just like the culture wagon. I was like what was

51:26their memo that went out?

51:30But uh but now the Colts defense is the wagon maker. Like going against the Colts defense makes you a wagon.

51:37>> Um Cowboys defense isn't great though either. Uh they have been a pretty big

51:45runfunnel now. Um and the Colts are the Colts are really trying. I mean they went against the Vikings and did what you were talking

51:54about with with the uh with the Lions where they're going really runheavy. The Colts may have have been doing that less

52:02as like a strategy and more of like the this is going to be really rough. Let's just run the ball. Um but they had a

52:07minus 15% proe against the Jags. minus 2% passer of expected there.

52:14You know, it's a little it's capitulation ball, but it's also like a fairly effective strategy actually in this particular matchup because the

52:21Cowboys 29th in rushing DBA, 29th EPA, 17th in success rate if Jonathan Taylor was locked in as the clear-cut guy here.

52:29This would be a really nice setup for him. Uh he isn't because they might trade him and they can't seem to figure

52:36out what they're doing. Like are they showcasing him? Are they trying to protect him from getting hurt? Like they're kind of doing both. They keep

52:43kind of half playing him. He had 31% of the attempts last week, but a 14% target share, 62% snap share. So, it's really

52:50hard to know what to do with this backfield like because because the Colts don't know what to do with this backfield.

52:56>> Yeah, it's it's really weird. And you know, some of that was the the blowout too last week, but even the week before

53:01he only he played sub 70% of the snaps and had 62% of the backfield touches.

53:06And that also just might be too like a Vikings thing we see forward. Like I'll be real curious to see if Ray D if Ray

53:11Davis starts getting touches on Monday night like we might be on to something like where like this is like actual thing like because Seth McGawan had a

53:17bunch of touches against the Vikings and Vaky did last week. I'm like is this going to be a thing like that they

53:22actually face? That might be a reveal because I don't think Ray did >> back up running back >> has touched. Yeah. Well, it's like

53:28because you can't give the starting running back 35 carries, >> right? Right.

53:31>> Like you know so it's like we need a guy to get like 12 of these. Maybe he'll just be Josh Allen. It'll just be the

53:37talent >> might be Josh. Yeah.

53:39>> Uh but that it's like Yeah. Do we see Ray Davis get the dozen carries on Monday night? It' be kind of funny.

53:44Yeah. This would be a smash spot for John Terry. I'm still like I talked on the show the show I did like he's like

53:51going to be like 4% owned. I'm going to play him just for the hell of it just to see and understand like I understand

53:58like he could get nothing but just in case cuz like if he gets even 16 touches against this defense I mean he might be

54:05able to do something with it like so and if he some if they somehow played him and gave him like the home fans a

54:11sendoff which I mean complete narrative street [ __ ] but uh who knows like what like happened but like they shouldn't play him at all to be real

54:20like that's like >> No that's the thing they shouldn't play him at He's not retiring, by the way.

54:24And they haven't worked out a a trade yet. So like giving him the sounds fun until you're like, but >> yeah,

54:32>> this might not be his last game, >> right? You haven't actually traded him.

54:37They don't seem >> I think they'd be down. I think they're down to trade him if they can get a huge

54:41package for him, but because they don't know if they can, then they're not making him inactive. And then it's like, well, Shane Stiken's coaching for his

54:49job. What? He's not gonna play Jonathan Taylor. Like if you're gonna let him play him, he'll play him.

54:54>> Yeah, exactly. Yeah. Yeah. If you're gonna if you still they do because Downs Downs ran a route on 90% of the

55:00dropbacks last week. Dude was just out there still.

55:03>> Well, DS needs to be out there because they don't seem real motivated to actually trade him.

55:08>> They're probably not getting a ton. Like the offers are getting back, I assume, aren't knocking their socks off. So, >> but

55:14>> and they shouldn't be, right? Like, he's out the door. Like, every team knows they can't keep him or retain him into

55:19next year.

55:19>> Yeah. you got to give him a new contract right away. Uh so >> yeah, and you and you paid out Pierce.

55:24Uh like I I feel like he's the one that's like what are you really waiting for? Like Taylor I get because he's

55:31under contract. He's not like he's he's expensive for a running back but not crazy expensive and and the optics look bad if you don't get really anything for

55:38him to the fan base, right? Uh because he's just been the face of the franchise. Like when you trade DeForest Buckner and you trade Quinton Nelson,

55:46those are good players, but like the fan you could tell the fan base like, "Hey, these dudes are making a bunch of money

55:50the rest of the year and we weren't going to have them next year, >> right?"

55:53>> But like Taylor's a little different, right? Like so definitely so there's definitely some optics going on too and we don't know that any truth to like the

56:01actual offers they're getting. We've heard a bunch of scuttlebutt like different offers uh that are here. But if they actually don't trade this dude

56:09and like you said they're going to dress him like Shane Stiken's going to be incentivized to play him as well and

56:15like we just saw Tyler Oier >> put up 190 against this defense. We've seen a couple weeks ago Bucky Irving put

56:20up 180 and two touchdowns against these guys. Like if Jonathan Taylor is playing in this game, odds are he's going to be

56:26probably effective.

56:29Yeah. I mean, and if you're stiking and you're starting to have some success and this ends up being a competitive game, I mean, and that the

56:38Cowboys just lost to Gardner Mchu and the Cardinals, like that's not far-fetched at all. Then why wouldn't you just kind of keep leaning on Taylor?

56:47>> I mean, they have a 22point team total, 23, like just under 23. Like, like someone's projecting them to score.

56:55>> Yeah. Yeah. I like it. I like it as a DFS play. Uh it is it is interesting because it's fragile. It's not comfy.

57:01It's super fragile. Fragile. Yeah, it's super fragile. But yeah, but you got you're trying to trying to I played Kyle Williams last week, you know, and uh

57:08>> got there, baby. Got there.

57:10>> Got you. You know what? That's two years in a row. We were on the Kyle Williams get a long touchdown.

57:16>> That's right. Now, if his knee hits the the football like a split second earlier, it doesn't get there. But but

57:24hey, he didn't he didn't knee out the football until right after he crossed the goal line, so it was a good play.

57:30That makes it a good play.

57:32Uh Josh DS, you mentioned um 92% round participation last week, 93% against the Vikings. So, he's had uh double coverage

57:44rates of going back to week three, 55% then 17, 60% then 18, then 60% again, and then 44%

57:54last week. Um, this is really wild. Uh, the Cowboys have been not particularly aggressive in their use of double

58:03coverage. Um, best quarterback, Joey Porter Jr.'s outside. Uh Caleb DS looking likely to miss this game with a concussion. So

58:15this could be the Josh Downs showcase game. You know, I think the Colts >> You think he would have told his brother

58:23to just let him get one?

58:26>> Yeah, maybe maybe it's bearish.

58:34>> Hey man, I need to I need to get out of here.

58:36>> I need to get out of here. Maybe I'll come to Dallas.

58:40>> The way Caleb Dallas has been playing, he might not even need to let him either.

58:43>> Yeah, for real. Um I know. I was writing that up. I was like, "Oh, this is actually a vulnerability."

58:48>> Did you see McBride like dog him like cuz McBride was miked up?

58:52>> Oh, yeah. The first round pick comment.

58:54>> Yeah. Like McBride is miked up and like cooked him on like an hour route.

58:57>> Yeah. I think I think Mike Evans with uh looking at the jersey has has really started some epic epic [ __ ] dog this

59:04year.

59:05>> It is.

59:05>> Um >> but you're right. This is a spot for downs though if if if the if Daniel Jones can do anything.

59:11>> Yeah. And it's not like with with Taylor who talked about it being weird. It's not weird. Like everyone's aligned here.

59:16Like it it makes first of all downs like it would be helpful to the offense if he can get going. Defenses are clearly

59:24treating him like someone that they need to take away. Um, we're seeing Casey Conpsion get get kind of treated like this where it's like this is this is

59:33like maybe the the kind of the easy guy like the easy button target slash he can actually do stuff after the catch where

59:40Keenan Allen >> let him catch the ball you want.

59:44>> Yeah, he's not going to burn us for explosives.

59:48You know, the Yak isn't really a concern at this point. So, you know, 28% targets per hour for him. teams teams are kind

59:54of letting that happen uh more than they are with downs. Although to be honest, Allen was at a 38% double coverage rate

60:01last last week because defenses know where the Colts are going with the ball.

60:05But but still the um the the matchup sets up very nicely here for DS. It makes sense for the Colts to utilize

60:12him. It makes sense for the Colts to try to trade him. He is a free agent after the year. He's not coming back. So if

60:17they could get anything of value for him, that's huge for them. And then DS is trying to get out of Indianapolis.

60:22So, he's highly motivated to showcase his skills. So, I do think this is an intriguing spot for Downs.

60:29>> Yeah, 100%.

60:31>> Uh Tyler Warren, any any thoughts on him? And we know he's going to be involved. He he's he's got equity in the

60:39red zone. It's just, you know, you need Daniel Jones to play better. And also he needs this is actually a spot maybe

60:45where we could actually see him actually be better if Jonathan Taylor's playing and running because just so much of his efficiencies tied to the play action

60:51game. Uh it's been kind of ongoing since he entered the the NFL. But uh you know that's why we would like to see Jonathan

60:58Taylor running against this defense. I mean it's a it's a good spot for him.

61:01Cowboys are 20th in receptions allowed the tight ends. Uh 30th in catch rate, 20th in touchdown rate. Uh we would just

61:07like to see some more downfield targets for him. We were we were going to get it. It looked like the Pitts Pittsburgh

61:12was the game he got hurt. The game he had the Pittsburgh game and the game after that and it's like all right he's

61:17finally starting some targets downfield then he got hurt and then last week you know you have the game in the rain the

61:21offense is obviously just in the toilet and he was back to just being like kind of uh uh everything near the line of

61:28scrimmage again. So we just we need more just downfield targets for him. Uh you would hope that maybe if they're able to

61:34do some stuff in the play action game that would be cool to unlock some of that things with the matchup. Uh, but

61:39definitely he's not like a guy he's like a guy you're playing because one you where you draft him, you probably don't

61:44have a lot of pivots on your roster and he's still getting volume so like you're living with it. But like I've adjusted

61:49and I just basically am treating him as like a floor tight end one like a kind of like a floor-based dude instead of

61:54like really thinking he's got like a men's ceiling right now. I would love for that to come back >> which was kind of true last year even

61:59when he was he was doing well.

62:01>> Yeah.

62:01>> So that's kind of just how I'm treating him. So, even in a good matchup, because the big problem is is we need the

62:05quarterback to play well, >> right?

62:09>> Which could happen here. You >> It could happen. The Colts or the uh the Cowboys defense is not good against the

62:14pass either. So, >> I mean, Daniel Jones has had a couple of these like he's faced the Commanders and he's faced the Titans and been bad in

62:21both games. So, it's just real hard to like even believe, >> right? Yeah. Yeah. It's true. And it's funny because Brat was 12th percentile

62:32in EPA per play last week and then Mchu was 99th. So it's like it's just like the Cowboys in a nutshell are like sometimes they're

62:42like surprisingly good on defense and then a lot of the time they're terrible.

62:48Uh and so in the same game they they did both.

62:53Also that's what you're getting. That is like what the Ravens are getting. I know it's better than Fenano, but the Brassette was really bad this year.

63:01>> Yeah. I mean, I think in overall efficiency, he's still like kind of middle. He's still actually uh very similar to Tyler Shuck in uh

63:12very similar to uh even more similar to Deshun Watson, which brings us to our next game.

63:17>> That makes that makes sense.

63:18>> Yeah. um where we're actually I think a little concerned that Deshun Watson is out at least I am and we have

63:27Shador Sanders and and what that does for the Browns offense because I mean obvious Watson was not good this year one EPA per game that's quarterback 26

63:3847% success rate that's quarterback 18 but Shador Sanders last year was averaging minus 6.2 two EPA per game, which is the worst mark in the NFL. He

63:47had a 37% success rate, which was only better than Dylan Gabriel, uh, who was worse in the same offense, significantly worse than Cam Ward last year, who was

63:57the second worst. Um, those two guys were kind of in like a tier of their own as far as inconsistent play last season.

64:05And so moving from like a middling success rate and very middling uh EPA to like the worst in the NFL type stuff is

64:16obviously a huge downgrade. Now Sanders might not be that bad in his second season uh in a new offense, but that is

64:24kind of the floor case here. Um he does at least get a Saints pass defense that not only is bad, but is really bad at

64:32getting pressure. And the Browns have not protected. Well, they're not as bad as last year on the offensive line, but they're not a good offensive line

64:40either.

64:42Deshaawn Watson holds the ball a long time. He has three seconds to throw this season. But, uh, Sanders was at 3.32

64:50seconds as a rookie. So, he was holding the ball even longer than Watson has this >> create his own pressure.

64:56>> He creates his own pressure and and Watson has a 9% quarterback allowed pressure rate, which is one of the highest in the league. So, he is already

65:02doing that. And then Sanders actually looks like he'll make that problem worse, not better. So, it's hard it's hard for me to see anything about

65:11Sanders that that could be an improvement. But, the matchup could help, you know, alleviate some of those concerns just because the the Saints are

65:20they're second worst in pressure in quick pressure rate and dead last in pressure rate, which, you know, if that if protection is is one of the biggest

65:28concerns here, that that should help there.

65:30>> Yeah. Basically the the the pro side to even take with Shador is just it's what with Watson, right? It's just like

65:36coming this year Watson was objectively just a disaster with the Browns and he's had, you know, moments where he shouldn't be thought of as like a the

65:46franchise savior, but like he's had moments where like this offense was functional and there's more young talent here to maybe support uh you know,

65:55Shador just making an improvement. I think the big thing here though is that the Browns really want to do something here. They can just line up and run

66:02Quinchon Judkins. Like if they this Saints the Saints pass defense is bad, but oh boy is their run defense even worse. Uh like they're they're allowing

66:12the most rushing points per game to running backs. They're 30th in yards per carry. They have the worst success rate against running back runs. They're

66:18allowing the most rushing yards per game to running backs. Like they allow first down or touchdown at the highest rate per run to running backs. So, if you

66:24really are worried about Shar Sanders, just line up and run Quinn Sean Judkins.

66:28Like, this is a total spot for it.

66:32>> I'm worried about Quinchan Judkins, though, from like he looks a lot like Genty to me as far as, you know, the the

66:40rushing efficiency. Um, >> well, two weeks ago we did see him at least against the Titans look good.

66:46>> He looked good there. Yeah, but his, you know, he he's at 1.68 68 yards per route run, 29% targets per out run. He's been

66:55really good there. He's minus four rush yards over expected per game, which is running back 57. And he hasn't been consistent either.

67:01>> Yeah.

67:01>> So, the thing that I worry about with Genty is that since Dylan Samson has been back, his target shares have

67:09cratered at three and five% targets.

67:13>> Not running any routes. Dylan Samson just completely took that away. Samson's at nine and 16% target shares in in his

67:19first two games and actually had 56% of the snaps last week in a game where you know they had to pass a bunch.

67:26>> They didn't pass.

67:27>> Quincon Judkins was at 39% of the snaps.

67:30Score 6.9 points. He got phased out. He was inefficient as well. His workload wasn't wasn't terrible actually. 12.8 expected points but he got scripted out

67:39um where he's not running routes. He's not seeing snaps because they just have Samson out there in in pass heavy script. And then you have on the other

67:47side of this, the Saints have been pretty aggressive at times this year.

67:51They got away from the pass for a couple weeks against the Steelers in week seven before the buy. They had a 9% proe and a

67:5923% proe on first and 10. So they got back to that pass heavy style. Um, and then Shuck was 75th percentile in EPA

68:07per play against the Steelers as well, which was his best mark of the season.

68:12So, the Saints passing game got going.

68:15>> That's what makes this matchup so weird, right? Like is cuz do you want to beat the Browns by running? And they kind of

68:21aren't good at running.

68:22>> They're kind of aren't good. That's the nicest thing anyone's ever said about the Saints run game.

68:27>> Kind of aren't good.

68:31>> Yeah. So, I mean, and inversely, the Browns, like the way to beat the Saints, I mean, to be fair, they're a bad pass

68:36defense, too. But like, yeah, you could beat up the Saints with a run game, and maybe they're not built to do that. And

68:42the other side, the same inverse.

68:45>> Yeah, this is an interesting game where both both teams are kind of what they do well or best anyway, is is not the way

68:54you attack the other team. How do you think this ultimately ends up playing out?

68:59probably kind of a like like a like a slog probably where you have Tyler Shuck playing against the defense that structurally like he probably has some

69:08issues with because they're not running the football tremendously great.

69:13>> A couple there's like some a couple of his guys has some good matchups like Vle has a decent matchup if he's uh running

69:19on slot but you don't want to like build the whole plane out of Devon Ble carrying the offense either. Um, and

69:25then on the other side, like you said, it's just a leap of faith with Shar Sanders if they're not running the

69:30football and you know, Sanders is playing inefficient football or taking negative plays. So, like there's a lot of volatility here. It also could turn

69:38to be like where these teams are just kind of fun. They're like the right level of like where they the the matchup

69:43is, right? like what Browns and Titans were kind of like this a couple weeks ago where like it's just like the right

69:48pocket of the opponent where like the game could be like kind of fun bad.

69:54>> Yeah. It's just harder for me to see that with Sanders. But >> it is. Yeah. Oh, no. No doubt.

69:59>> I mean, like I said, the only thing you could talk about is when when you look at the Browns, you're like, they got

70:03good young players and hopefully that's enough to to carry. But >> one thing I'd say too, uh Jordan Tyson may make his debut this week. um limited

70:14Wednesday and Thursday. Uh don't have his practice status yet, but listen, >> they labeled him questionable. Yeah.

70:21Yeah.

70:21>> Yeah. So, if he's back, Vele, I I'm not really interested in him because he's just been such a volume merchant um and

70:32running a ton of routes. I mean, he has 92% round participation this season, which is 95th percentile.

70:39I think Tyson would kind of eat into that at least a little bit. And then, you know, you're looking at additional

70:46target competition as well, which Veil, I do not want that for Vle.

70:50>> No. Uh, right place, right time kind of kind of receiver.

70:53>> We've seen it. I mean, he didn't get going last year until Shahed was off the team and they haven't had a second guy

71:00this year. Um, so once Tyson established himself and I'm sure they're going to kids gloves Tyson, but even even snaps are snaps that aren't he's that are

71:09gonna >> impact file. Tyson is gonna have like 35% route participation >> if he even if he plays right.

71:16>> Yeah. And he could be and he could have high target per route stuff too. I would expect so the problem that's the problem

71:21where you say well you're like well Bryce Bryce Lance has been playing. Well Bryce Lance ain't earning any targets when he's out there. He's out here

71:27running around. But if Tyson's on the field I'm pretty sure he's going to earn some targets.

71:32>> Yeah. Or they just won't play him.

71:35>> Right. Correct. Correct.

71:36>> Yeah. So yeah jumps out to me as like at least you know what you're getting. But that's more of like a seasonl long thing

71:43of like, yeah, you're gonna you're not too worried about him. I >> Yeah, both Browns guys have been good in coverage. And that's not a a fade a lot,

71:51I think. You know, you know, like you said, you know what you're getting. It's just they're like kind of like the

71:54Colts. Like these two outside guys have been the defense like largely like it's they're the pass defense. Like Campbell and Ward have both been really good this

72:03year. Um give don't give up a lot of efficiency. They will give up a big play or two though. So maybe we'll cash one

72:09in with a lav that way.

72:12Uh the Browns pass catchers. Um you mentioned it's going to be probably them trying to run the ball. Um but they have

72:22like the Browns have not been afraid when when these games get really >> Yeah, they're not going to lean into it.

72:28>> He'll lean into it. You know, if it's if it's a pass heavy script, he'll lean into it. 78% pass rate last week, which

72:33is a season high, and was 3% above expected. So you can kind of push them into pass heavy script and um that would

72:41be good for Casey against Epsion. It would be good for Harold Fannon who was banged up on Thursday but returned to

72:47practice today. So I think he should probably be all right. Fannon's been really good the last couple weeks. 3.14 and 3.67 yards per route run.

72:55>> Um and you know this it's like for the season now he's up to 1.59 yards per route run. Obviously the quarterback

73:05downgrade hurts him. He's at least played with Sanders before. Um, which is something, but what are your thoughts on Conpsio and Boston and Fannon?

73:15>> Yeah, I didn't want to just lean into the Sanders target share stuff with Fannon because they were they just had

73:20no wide receivers last year. You know, I've seen that like cited a few times like, well, sure targeted fan in this

73:25much. And it could just be static because the last two games he's been an engine anyways. And like you said, with

73:31Conception drawing some more attention, it's it's actually kind of helped him kind of be like the to get some of the

73:36the volume back in in his corner where Conception was probably hurting him a little bit to start the year. Uh but

73:41then when Conception had that huge game against the Titans, it was like, oh, cool. Like, all right, maybe, you know, he's going to draw some attention. Like

73:47last week, 10 for 154. But the I didn't want to lean into just the splits with Sanders because you know he was sharing

73:53the field with Isaiah Bond and >> you Jerry Judy last year. So it's like >> you know Boston and and Conception are

74:02way better players. But it's nice to see Fannon at least getting back to where we were last year in terms of offering us

74:08upside that just wasn't touchdown related because he was really only getting over in the weeks he scored a touchdown. And this was this is a very

74:15promising you know trend here. But I like I've you and I have talked about this anyways with the Browns in general.

74:19I just don't think that their offense at this stage, even though we like all three players is good. There's just gonna be volatility here with these

74:25guys. Like it's just not gonna be consistent with these guy. Like they're all going to pop up and have spots where

74:30they're good because they're good players, but the offense isn't good enough on a weekly basis to support multiple multiple of these guys every

74:36week or have any consistency. So, I think if you like if you have these Browns guys and you've been playing them, you kind of just have to live with

74:44the bitter and the sweet with these guys or you're going to just drive yourself crazy trying to get it right.

74:48>> Yep.

74:50Um, all right. Giants at Eagles. This game >> like it is week nine and we are we are about to talk about a JJ McCarthy vers

75:01Joe Milton game.

75:03>> Uh, pretty pretty wild stuff, man. They were both Michigan quarterbacks at one point.

75:08>> Oh, I didn't realize Milton had a Michigan stand.

75:11>> That's when uh McCarthy talked about it.

75:13There's a quote from McCarthy that said when he got to the campus and like their first like practice or whatever and he

75:18saw Milton throw, he's like, "Holy [ __ ] I'm never going to play here." And then and Milton then Milton transferred, but

75:24like he saw that dude like cuz Milton's like one of these dudes like going to practice. He watches dude throw. Like

75:28he's like the long drive dude, the dude that goes like the long drive competitions. You're just like, "Oh, like look." You think that's why

75:34McCarthy throws the way he does?

75:36>> He saw Milton and was like, "I have to throw 99 miles an hour every time or I'll never play football."

75:42>> Could be, man. But yeah, that was like he had a thing where he talked about like get on campus and he was like, "Oh,

75:47dude, like look at this dude." Like I >> That's crazy. That's crazy. Uh do you want to start on the Eagle side? Like

75:56what are what are your thoughts on the McKe to Milton switch?

76:02We have a guy that works for us that covers the Eagles. His name's Tucker Tucker Bagley. He works for He writes

76:07the injury stuff for us. And he thought that he thought internally like this was a a transition because M they can't play

76:13like any under center stuff with McKe and they thought maybe they could do some more like QB design stuff with with

76:19uh Milton like in the run game. And maybe we're going to see some of that which is funny because they drafted

76:24freaking Cole Payton and like this >> Yeah. What happened to Cole Payton?

76:26>> This dude can't play. No, that's >> like it's a it's a real bummer. But supposedly he said like that was a big

76:33like part of the driving process was they wanted to start to do some more of like this stuff in the run game that

76:38they just couldn't get to with McKe like having to play under center. So we'll see if they do any more of that stuff.

76:43But definitely a fun player like I like I don't know what's g the bummer is we don't have Devonte Smith. We don't have

76:51Dvonte Dantavian Wixs and we definitely don't have 100% Saquon Barkley and that's like you need insulation for a guy like Joe Milton like he's going to

76:59be playing a preseason game out here still like this offense has been a preseason offense but fun player howitzer for an arm uh and will run like

77:10yeah >> this this dude from like a points per drop back stance stands out but it's because he has no drop backs and he will

77:16run around like he's in the NFL he scrambled on 9% of his drop backs very small sample size, but even going back

77:21to college, this was a dude that will run around. So, at least that's a wild card here is >> totally >> he he could get you some points running

77:31around. U I I mean, you're two QB stuff only. Like, you're not obviously.

77:35>> No, no, no, >> no. It is.

77:40>> Well, it's just like I don't think this is going to work, but at least it's different. And you know, McKe, he had um

77:48he, you know, kind of point guard, pocket passer type of guy. 2.61 time to throw. That's that's very quick. Pretty shallow 7.0 ADOT. Uh first read attempt

78:00rate of of 62%. Very much kind of a a pocket passer guy. I mean, he could he's like semi mobile, but not in an exciting

78:08way. And it just it's just one of those it was just so depressing to watch because like the offense is, you know,

78:16it's like, oh, we're running the offense kind of as designed sort of, but then you're getting a 40% success rate, no

78:23efficiency in any of the games, uh, negative minus four EPA per game. So, it's like if you're gonna play that way,

78:32like at least rip it, you know, some.

78:35And yeah, so it was just like a really tough watch. Milton will be at least more fun. He has a 10.3 A DOT, 3.16

78:45second time to throw. So he's holding the ball, scrambling around. 35 scramble yards on 59 career drop backs. To your point there, I mean, he he is mobile. He

78:54is looking to create with his legs. It's kind of like we went from I don't even know who to compare McKe to, but uh Mike

79:02Glennin, maybe Mike Glennin to Malik Willis, you know, but probably not Malik Willis. I think that Malik Willis is maybe maybe too bullish of a comp, but

79:12you know, stylistically we're moving um you know toward that at least. So, it'll be it'll be interesting to see. Uh the

79:20Giants defense is is okay. They've been solid in coverage. Abdul Carter quietly is having an awesome year. Uh their pass

79:29rush is not that great overall. They're 30th in pressure rate, but they're up to ninth in quick pressure rate. Um after

79:37losing Brian Burns, you know, this this defense is never going to be great at getting pressure, but they but Carter looks like uh you know, he's going to

79:45pay off on that on that draft pick. Um what what are your thoughts on Giants defense and if the Eagles can get

79:51anything going here? sneakily a really good defense this year. I was kind of like waiting for it to like some of

79:57things to catch up to their personnel, but even before the buy, they hold CJ Strad to five and a half yards for pass

80:03attempt. A hot CJ Strad like was coming into that game hot. Um they face some guys that that aren't good, but then you

80:10like they held Dak Prescott to 5.1 yards per pass attempt, right? Like uh the only game they got absolutely torched was Matthew Stafford game and that they

80:19were missing Deontay Banks and Greg New that game. like they were missing multiple dudes in the back end. Uh Greg Newsome just got extended. Deontay Banks

80:26has been really good this year too. It's just like they've been a good defense. U they've held up. So that's the other

80:32element too. It's like you don't want to be super bullish on Milton because the defense has been good too. They haven't

80:36given up any The only guy to even throw for 200 yards against them was Stafford in that game. and uh he's like it's just

80:44like I don't I don't really I'm just not expecting much here when you look at what the Eagles are bringing to the

80:48party in terms of surrounding skill players cuz you would also say like cuz Lemon at least McKe was like giving Lemon life as like a floor-based guy but

80:57I don't think >> how's Mil how is he going to gel with Milton dude like >> I couldn't tell so with Lemon there was

81:05this play they kept running where he would like he'd be running across the middle of the field and there's like the

81:10first window and McKe wouldn't throw the on the first window and then he's coming across so he's got to clear like two

81:16linebackers and then now he's like in a completely different window like between like the hashes and the sideline >> and McKe would sometimes hit him there

81:25and then he has time to bend and go up field or he would take a sack while he looked at him run that route the entire

81:32time just I'm like like I'm not sure feels like the ball should have been out in the first window and then but you

81:39just watch run the rest of the route.

81:41Um, and and maybe it's not cuz because you know he's able to get Yak. Anyway, I just it was a really weird offense to

81:50watch. I'm like it doesn't feel like this is the way it's supposed to work.

81:55But I don't know. I mean Milton Milton could be way worse for Lemon. Uh, you know, he could just hang on to the ball

82:02forever. It could be scramble drill stuff. Like Lemon, you would want, you know, things to be operating in rhythm.

82:08I think uh that's where he would be at his best. I I would assume although Lemon has not been very good this year,

82:13so it's unclear >> what you know what role he would excel in.

82:19>> It's funny as we talk about the Dolphins and it's like well they have these guys that clearly work with like where Malik

82:25Willis excels and what the Eagles are going to put on the field Sunday. I can't find a guy I'm like oh like this

82:31dude will like this dude will [ __ ] with Joe Melton. Like I don't they don't have any Dvonte Smith would. Yeah, Dvonte

82:36Smith would totally. But uh even Wix, even Wix, I think like Yeah, but Wix being out too and just it's just Lemon

82:44and Gddard and Darius Cooper.

82:47>> I mean, I will say Lemon was a pretty decent deep receiver in college. They they started out the first iteration of

82:53Lemon was >> But he's not like a get this guy blown up on a screen. That was their first idea.

83:00>> But he's not like an I'm gonna go 50 yards downfield dude like even for being a good deep threat. True.

83:06>> It was like more timing based stuff like >> you know what I mean? Like like >> this Joe Milton just wants to throw the

83:12football as far as he can, >> right? He's trying to throw it over the mountains.

83:16>> Throw it over the mountains.

83:19>> Yeah. Uh yeah. I don't know. I mean it's Lemon is running a lot of routes, you know. He's running a lot of routes. He

83:27he's 78th percentile in open score, too.

83:30So there is like a thing with Lemon where I'm still like slightly optimistic that he's like significantly better than

83:40this. I don't know how you're like really optimistic about production from Lemon this week though given the quarterback situation or going forward

83:48because >> what's his best case scenario? You know that Joe Milton's kind of good. I guess that seems thin. Cole Payton. They

83:57should have been playing Cole Payton this whole time. That seems really thin.

84:00>> They've clearly watched Cole Payton practice and do stuff and they're just like they're because they're not even they didn't even entertain it.

84:08>> Yeah, it's not good. Them trading for Jacobe Brassette was was maybe the best case scenario. That's gone. Maybe they can trade for Mchu when uh when the

84:16Cardinals start back.

84:23The Eagles are just it's it's it's a bad place here.

84:28>> It's crazy that we're talking about again a JJ McCarthy game and we're like this quarterback situation is atrocious.

84:35All right, let's move on and talk about the Giants.

84:39This quarterback situation seems maybe okay. I I'm I'm nervous about McCarthy.

84:45I'm not a McCarthy guy. People know that. I think he stinks.

84:49He had the lowest success rate of the of the uh week last week with at 31%. He turned in 5.1 EPA. Uh they win the game.

85:00>> You know, he got there. He had the highest success rate of the week uh in that, you know, limited time against the

85:07Saints.

85:08>> Yeah.

85:09>> 61% success rate there, but that was like garbage time type stuff. I think >> they literally threw two balls that

85:15should have been intercepted in that game.

85:17>> Yeah. I I think McCarthy is an extremely inconsistent quarterback, >> right?

85:22>> Who can occasionally do some cool stuff and depending on how cool you think that stuff was, he might even convince you

85:30that he's good, but he's but he's not he's not he's not able to do it consistently. Maybe maybe over time, you

85:37know, he he stopped he kind of shifts that um and and you know, the good plays outweigh the bad eventually, but we're

85:44pretty far from that. And it's not he he's an interesting I what I will say is this offense looks designed to like make the most of

85:54inconsistent quarterback play. He has a 2.49 second time to throw. So getting the ball out lightning quick but a 12.3 A dot an 18% deep pass rate and he's

86:04throwing on to his first read at a fairly high rate. So in order for this all to work the coaching staff has

86:11bought in on we're going to attack deep.

86:14We're gonna play really aggressive.

86:16We're not gonna kind of do this like, you know, dink and dunk like high success rate, avoid mistakes football.

86:24It's like old school, you know. Uh they're they're like like Carrie Collins would was would, you know, would be happy to play in this offense. You know

86:33what I'm saying?

86:34>> Um Vinnie Testaverdie could could come play for Matt Naggie right now.

86:38>> Jamus Winston had the same style. So, I know we have a limited sample on McCarthy, but Jameus Winston 64% first

86:45rate attempt rate, even higher than McCarthy. Uh 9.18, 15% deep pass rate.

86:51Okay. And a 2.69 second time to throw.

86:54So, also pretty quick. So, this offense, I think I feel pretty strongly designed to play like this. Uh McCarthy's

87:04particular brew is a little uh a little hot. it's it's gonna, you know, his time to throw is going to go up, his deep

87:11pass rate's going to go down, but the kind of the general vibe of the offense, I think it like it's backed up by what

87:18Matt Naggie is actually designing. Uh, which is good because I do really believe that McCarthy is going to be inconsistent, but if he's consistently

87:27taking shots downfield, that's really good for Malik Neighbors, who has an 86th percentile open score and has an 11.6 AOT. So he he is getting a lot of

87:37downfield looks. He had a 13.8 ADOT last week, 3.83 yards per route run. Um boom bust quarterback. I would like a

87:47guy to be running high leverage downfield routes and we are getting that from neighbors. So I'm still into neighbors as much as I uh do have my

87:55worries about McCarthy.

87:57>> Yeah. Same. Eagles have been vulnerable downfield too. just an untypical, you know, Vic Fangio defense this year. Uh, you know, say same as what we saw

88:08against when McCarthy faced the Texans, right? And we were kind of like, well, defense should be good, but they keep giving up big plays and they exploited

88:15them with downfield plays. Eagles are 27th in completion rate on throws, 10 or more yards downfield this year. Uh, they they've struggled to to prevent some of

88:24those big plays. So, definitely still on the table here for Malik Neighbors. you just, you know, you're keep playing him for for upside. Likely is more of a wild

88:33card with McCarthy now, I think, because McCarthy is also a guy like we're really like "Hey >> I'll jam the ball to Malik Neighbors."

88:39Like, absolutely. Uh, Likely is a little probably more touchandgo. We need to see the sample size flush out a little bit.

88:45I still think the offense wants to get the ball to Likely a lot. It's really those two guys.

88:49>> It's just not It's also not a great matchups. The one thing the Eagles still have done good is defend tight ends. You

88:54know, Zack Bond still really good in that capacity. So, little bit of volatility. I mean, you're probably playing likely in a lot of spots where

89:00you have him anyways, just because by default, but you know, by default. Uh, and he still is running a ton of routes.

89:06Like even >> that's the thing, man.

89:08>> 94 or 90% route participation over the last two weeks. Like, if you just told me that alone, like I have a tight end

89:13for you.

89:15>> Probably count on run 90% plus routes.

89:17>> I'd be like, >> with no more information, he's he's a tight end one%.

89:23>> Now, I'm going to adjust based on what you told me next. But yeah.

89:27>> Yeah. Yeah. Absolutely. And so that's I think how you treat him. And then you know as much as like you know you might

89:32like Malachi Fields coming out of the buy or anything like it's I think asking JJ McCarthy to one support one of these

89:38guys at a high degree is enough to ask and and two is enough. We get the the third and fourth guys.

89:45Not not really going there. And the backfield is going to be a oneman show this week. It looks like at least we're

89:50going to get they play on Thursday next week. So I don't think they're going to play Cam Scatteroo. All the Beats seem

89:55to think he's not gonna play. So, they're down to just Devin Singleary, uh, Gregory D. Rosier, uh, if that's how we say his name. I'm not 100% sure. And

90:04then Eric Gray from the practice squad.

90:06So, I would expect, it's gross, but out of these guys that are elevated this week, like if you're talking about like

90:13Tyler Algier, like versus Devin Singleary, like I'm pretty clearly going to the Deon Singleary side of this dude's going to get 20 plus touches.

90:20They're favored.

90:22See what happens.

90:24The Eagles have not been good against the run either.

90:26>> Yeah.

90:26>> And this is what Devin Singleary lives for. He lives to just be a backfield.

90:31>> Be a backfield.

90:32>> Like the second that Singleary remained on the roster, like Scataboo was screwed. Tracy was screwed. Like >> this guy takes over backfields one way

90:41or another. It's just destiny, man. It's destiny.

90:46>> Yeah, I'm with you. I I think I mean the matchup for Algier is so so much worse and you're kind of looking at you know a

90:52similar type of thing. I Singleary's not really been targeted and Scataboo hasn't been targeted and I don't think McCarthy is going to be great for running back

91:02>> receptions. Um Singleary got the most receptions last week, 12% target share.

91:08So, you know, maybe maybe I'm underelling that part of it, but I I think mostly you're just like he's going to get he's just going to dominate the

91:15carries and this is actually a spot where the Giants, you know, should be able to play from ahead.

91:21>> And the other thing we know with the Giants too that's inconsistent even when they're bad at it, like they will keep

91:26giving the football to the running back, >> right? Totally.

91:31Yeah. I I like where when I wrote it up, I wasn't sure if Singleary was going to be out. Where where do you landing on

91:37Singleary? Uh like running back two or >> Yeah, I still have him as an RB2, but I >> Yeah, >> I mean I could totally see where he like

91:46outproduces some guys, you know?

91:49You know, I think when you look at like there's like we have him, we have Woody Marks, we have Alier, like kind of all

91:55in that same bucket, right, of like Well, >> I think I prefer Marks >> like we're passing.

92:00>> Yeah, I have Marks ahead of him, too.

92:02And I have him ahead of Alier like of the three guys like of the the the Russian nesting ball nesting doll like

92:09of like the similar archetype. But if you told me like Single Terry outscored dudes like I like got in the box and

92:17outscored some guys I'd be like yeah like absolutely.

92:20>> Yeah, totally. Jonah Coleman I I prefer uh to Single Terry for sure. But yeah, um, as far as guys who are getting

92:30elevated, but he's elevating himself really.

92:34Uh, all right. I think anything to say on Saquon? I mean, it's just it's it's kind of a worse version of the Taylor

92:40situation because it's health. We just >> Yeah, he's definitely just not right.

92:43It's a bummer cuz actually of all the guys, like he's actually been pretty good.

92:48>> Yeah, he has been good.

92:50>> And that's the bummer. Like he's actually playing pretty good football, but he's just clearly not healthy.

92:55Well, they keep saying he's he's never played through a hamstring injury before. And I'm like, yeah, because this is not what you do.

93:02>> Just like clearly you haven't because you you're supposed to rest, dude. This is like one of the most reinjury risk

93:10injuries out there. Please stop playing through it. Just sit down for a couple weeks man.

93:17>> Yeah. And they have a buy next week.

93:18Like, >> yeah, dude.

93:20>> What are we doing?

93:21>> What are we doing here? I mean, the season's lost, too. Like, just please don't create a long-term hamstring problem.

93:29Anyway, Dallas GDart, tight end one. Anything else to say?

93:35>> Yeah. All right. Rams at Commanders, uh, hey, two quarterbacks who were the intended week one starters for their

93:43team will be facing off in this game.

93:48What a relief. What a joy. Uh unfortunately the Rams wide receivers are are hurt. Uh you know Puka Nakua is good to go but uh Dvonte Adams being out

93:58has really changed the offense. Nua 1.5 AOT last week had a 48% targets per route run. I I called it the the rashi

94:07riceification of Puka Nua.

94:10>> Yep. And you know what I it it started to happen for a couple weeks. Uh and now we finally got the reveal of why it's

94:17happening. Uh that Matthew Stafford has an elbow injury. I was like, "Oh, all right."

94:22>> And Devonte Adams isn't isn't available, which >> Yeah. Yeah. I mean, you're throwing more to running backs, throwing more to the

94:27tight ends. Um and then, yeah, they said he got hurt in the He's had this elbow injury since the Denver game supposedly.

94:34Um so, it's like that. And we we are getting Terrence Ferguson back, which is nice.

94:39>> Is he playing? Yeah, he is. McA he expects him to play. So that is that's fun in in a big part of the offense

94:45because the la and Parkinson probably won't play. He's looking doubtful. They did list him as questionable, but no one thinks he seems like he's actually going

94:52to play, >> but the the last time Ferguson played without Puka and Adams played, he had a 30% target share. So it's like, all

95:00right, this dude's probably the the second option in the pass game. uh if he's playing a full a lotment of snaps

95:07and it's a great spot for Terrence Ferguson to come back to too against the Commanders who have really struggled against tight ends, specifically tight

95:15ends too that line up uh not in line.

95:17So, he's exciting. It's an exciting piece to get back for a team that's been really banged up. Uh there looks like

95:24they're Miles Garrett back too, but then they they lost Jaylen Watson for the season and Trent McDuffy didn't practice again today either. So, it's like the

95:30Rams just like have been through the ringer this this year with some injuries.

95:35Yeah, and Ferguson has been a field stretcher for them. So, uh obviously the the elbow injury not ideal, but they need like they they so badly need

95:44someone who can threaten deep in any way. Um so Ferguson's really big for the offense. Uh you know, not obviously the

95:53same type of role as as Adams, but just the ability to get downfield.

95:58>> I mean, Canada Mumfield has been really really doing nothing. Um, his ADOT is 14.9. So, he is their kind of dedicated

96:08field stretcher right now. He was at 12 last week, but >> yeah, 22 had a big play last week. That was like their only big play in the past

96:14game outside of the stuff that Puko's creating after the catch, >> right? So, Ferguson Yeah, Ferguson has some juice. He He looked good.

96:22>> Yeah.

96:22>> Um before getting hurt. So, I I agree that's exciting that they have him back.

96:27Uh, >> I had a league la last week where uh I had a tight end spot and I needed a tight end spot, but my titans were KD

96:34and him and I just took a zero because I didn't want to let another team have Ferguson.

96:40>> Nice.

96:41>> I was just like I it was a team I do with my son and he was like what should we do? And I was like honestly I don't

96:46want another team to have him. Like let's just let's take it. Let's just eat it.

96:50>> Did you win?

96:51>> Yeah, we still won. We were still good.

96:52Yeah, it's it's an allplay league. So you play all 11 you play all 11 other teams and like we went seven and four so

96:58it was fine like uh >> nice >> but I was like I don't want another team to get him for the rest of the year.

97:03>> Yeah. No, he's I mean >> if Adams comes back that it changes things a little bit.

97:08>> Absolutely. I I'm not expecting I don't think he's coming back but I also a doctor but I don't >> his hamstring was off the bone. today.

97:16So, >> well, it's I whatever surgery the um the guy that helps out with injuries at at LegUP was saying there's not been a ton

97:24of football players with this, but in other sports, >> okay, >> the six to 10 week timeline is like in line with that. So, I don't know. Um I I

97:33think he ends up coming back, but like for like week 15 or something.

97:36>> Yeah, it's still a little ways off if it does happen.

97:40uh thoughts on the backfield here because the the Rams are in position to to really establish it, but as we talked

97:46about that can sometimes mean more >> cororum >> uh than than Kiran if they're if they're you know kind of salting the game away.

97:54>> Yeah, and that's what we saw. Uh it was it it was a lot of Cororm early and then Kairen was the closer. Uh 11 of his

98:02touches came in the fourth quarter last week. Corm had the nice long touchdown run to open the game. This is an

98:08interesting spot because the Commanders are a little bit of a team you want to throw more against and not really line

98:14up and run the ball, but they just lost Don Payne for the season. They lost Javon Kinlaw as well. So maybe that

98:20opens up where they're a little bit worse and a little bit more v vulnerable than Also, the Rams are a team that are

98:24generally good at running on everybody.

98:26Uh >> they're really good at running right now. Yeah, >> you know, they're just it kind of they're not really matchup dependent.

98:32Like they can usually run. They're a tough run game to defend regardless. So maybe they're just going to lean into it

98:36too here anyways and they're able to run the football. But I expect it unless the game script goes ary, which I don't

98:42really think it will. Very thin, especially when you look at what the commanders are bringing uh in terms of who they're have available on offense. I

98:48have a hard time seeing them really even with the Rams injuries on defense. I have a hard time seeing the Commanders

98:53like lighting up the Rams and like pulling ahead. So I would expect a similar backfield split where you're getting it capped. Kairen's a guy every

99:00week when I go to like the industry rankings that I'm just like he's like ranked as like a top six guy and I'm

99:05like are you guys not like paying attention to what's going on here? Like when they're in these games it's a 50-50

99:11split and yeah he's still getting his touchdown too.

99:14>> I have an RB12.

99:15>> Yeah.

99:16>> Yeah. That's where I like I have him hang around like this like that RB like the low-end RB1 highend RB2 stuff,

99:22right?

99:23because he also has the out of like if something goes ary, he then becomes the foxhole guy.

99:29>> That's why that's why I always treat him that way. But again, I expect similar things that we've seen happen in recent

99:35weeks because when the Rams are in these games where they're favorites, you see more quorum.

99:41>> Yeah. Yeah.

99:43I think um too that the the Commanders run defense. They're 31st in success rate against the run and the Rams have

99:52run so consistently and then they also have, you know, big plays in the run game as well, but but primarily they're

99:58just able to like pound the rock in a really effective way. The Commanders don't look very well set up to stop

100:04that. This could be one of those games that kind of changes the way we view the Commanders run defense. like I could I could see us

100:11coming out of this game being like, "Oh, you can definitely run on the Commanders."

100:15>> Um, you can kind of do whatever you want. Actually, >> uh, on the Rams side or in the the Commanders offensive side and the Rams

100:24defensive side, the injuries um are Watson, they they they lose um Jaylen Watson for the year. Uh, he's been

100:35playing really well. Trent McDuffy uh I was assuming would be out. Has he been officially ruled out?

100:41>> He did practice today. They listed him as questionable, but he also did not practice today. So you you know how this

100:46game usually goes.

100:48>> Yeah. Concussion, right? So he's he he'll be out. Um >> and the the Rams are notoriously pretty cautious with injuries, too. They're

100:54like a team that So I would be surprised if he's he's active.

100:58>> Is it concussion or what does he have?

100:59No, >> he's a back injury, right?

101:02>> Back injury. My bad. Yeah. Um, but yeah, I was assuming he'd be out and then uh >> and Cam Cur and Cam Curl is looking like

101:11he's not practice, too. So, >> I what I noted is because I was looking at kind of the way they they played it.

101:17Um, and because they have so Emanuel Forbes has been really good on the outside. Uh, and then the slot corner Josh Wallace has been good too. But if

101:27they're out McDuffy and definitely Watson, then we're talking about Wallace has played some outside and it looks like maybe they'll actually we'll see

101:39Quinton Lake um >> is playing more slot corner. So, the way it kind of looked to me actually is that

101:48they're losing their outside corners, but that actually the slot might become the vulnerable point if Josh Wallace moves outside. Um, and so it kind of had

101:59me thinking that this is a kind of a sneaky spot for Stefon Diggs, who's been operating primarily from the slots, 70%

102:06slot rate against the Eagles. Uh it's possible that's not how they play it, but but Josh Walsh did play more outside

102:13last week >> and so I'm assuming that he plays more outside. Now >> the the you know, Diggs is clearly the

102:22number one wide receiver for the Commanders right now with McLaren done for the year. So maybe the Rams just put Wallace on him and deal with a worse

102:32outside cornerback as a result. Move >> around. No, I mean Diggs moves around.

102:36>> Diggs does move around some. Yeah, I mean 65% of his snaps in the slot. So yeah, he moves around. That's 95th

102:42percentile, but he no one literally only plays in the slot. Um >> I'm pretty sure like his every touchdown he's had has come on that slot fade.

102:51That's >> Yeah, it's like that's the diggs route.

102:54Like you like picture Diggs running around right now. We all we're all picturing the same route.

102:59>> Um but yeah, I mean I think this is kind of an interesting match up for Diggs and and again where the commander should be

103:05playing from behind. there should be pass volume. He's that consistent target earner. He has uh 22% first read target rate, 92nd percentile, 25% targets per

103:14outr run as like a volumebased option, but one who could actually get in the end zone, do a little bit after the

103:20catch. Kind of intrigued by Diggs.

103:23>> Yeah, I like I like both pass catchers here because it's just going to be so concentrated in a game where they're

103:28going to have to throw, I believe. Uh so I like Diggs and Antonio Williams both a lot here with no no trail on Burks.

103:34Diami Brown got hurt practice today, too. So, it's I mean, it's going to be Diggs, Williams, and Aconqu. And the Rams are so good against tight ends that

103:43>> Wait, is Burk's out? I didn't I didn't see that.

103:44>> He's he didn't practice again today. So, it's looking he's looking doubtful. So, I like both these guys uh just based on

103:51product of like extension what we talked about with the Jets, right? Like even if you thought it wasn't a good matchup, I

103:55just think they're going to have to throw and the volume's going here. Uh I'm treating Antonio Williams this week a lot like I think we treated Jonah

104:02Coleman last week. like you might not be in love with the matchup, but I just think the opportunity is here for this

104:07guy to play a lot and be involved and I'm just gonna bet on a guy that I think is pretty solid player. Um

104:13>> Yeah.

104:13>> Yeah. So, I I'm in on both these guys just based on I don't think they're going to run the ball and then we're out

104:18of bodies.

104:20>> Yeah, man. Yeah. I I kind of for Diggs I I'm disappointed to hear Burks is out because I feel like having that field

104:28stretching is actually helpful for him.

104:30Obviously, it's a big a big boost for Antonio Williams because targets just have to consolidate.

104:35>> Yeah. Uh but I do think that both Diggs, I think, is still just a good player, a good enough player. I don't He's not in

104:40the Keenan Allen zone for me yet. Like when you watch Diggs and you watched him last year for the Patriots, >> like he's still he's still good. He's

104:46still >> He's fluid. He's still very fluid.

104:49>> He's the player receiver still.

104:51>> It's like you can't play him all the time. He's more like I mean >> Yeah. Honestly, >> it's not going to work for a lot of

104:56people, but he kind of reminds more of Evans where it's like the issue is how much you can put him on.

105:02>> The durability. Yeah.

105:03>> Yeah. The durability and the availability, but like when he's on the field in that play, you're like, "Oh, he's open. Look, that's good."

105:09>> Yep. I mean, we're we're honestly probably going to see Antonio like Antonio Williams might have 100% route participation here. Like pretty damn

105:16close to it.

105:17>> Yeah. Yeah. I I could see that for sure.

105:20What else are they going to do?

105:21>> Yeah, exactly.

105:22>> I mean, it was at 88% last week.

105:25So yeah, um Cha Conquo 82% ra participation last week, 85 the week before. He'll have to play a bunch too.

105:34>> Yeah, he's going to play a lot. Uh so you can do a volume based thing. Rams are just a team like I always circle

105:39like they're so good against tight ends.

105:42>> And that's what Aono had happen last week is he faced a he had the part he almost made a a gnarly touchdown catch.

105:48I don't you saw like a one-hand touchdown catch. He he had a sick one-handed catch in the game first of all and then almost had a one-handed

105:54touchdown. But same boat, he's in the same boat. Like the opportunities here for him to run a lot of routes, but the

105:59he runs into another matchup because he had the Eagles. Like we just talked about the Eagles versus tight ends again. He gets another one here with the

106:06with the Rams.

106:09>> Uh >> although Cam Curl being out could could help him.

106:12>> Yeah, the backfield. I mean, White's gonna lead the way, but this is sort of it's getting like Chargersy. It is very

106:20Chargers. Well, the problem is White's not good.

106:22>> White's not good. Yeah. Bad news about a Marian Hampton.

106:29>> Uh, all right. Broncos at Panthers.

106:32Um, Bon Knicks little more success over the last couple weeks. Um, but the success rate has been has been pretty poor. And the Panthers pass rush is is

106:43definitely a bit of a concern here. They blitz a lot. They are getting to the passer, but you do have Jaylen Waddle

106:49probably in a full-time role. He's been practicing in full. Pat Bryant returning to the offense. Thoughts on the uh the Broncos passing game against Panthers

106:59defense that has been definitely letting up a little more efficient efficiency recently. Jordan Love quite efficient against them last week.

107:06>> Yeah. And you know, they just fired Aziro uh off of the mini buy so to speak with the the long walk. So Todd Wash is

107:14taking over. We haven't seen him call play since he's with the Jaguars uh 2016 to 2020. It's going to be interesting to see what is implemented

107:21here or what they can even do because they're still down, you know, JC Horn and Mike Jackson. Aver was one of these

107:26guys that we like from a fantasy football stance because he just did the same thing every game and like I we

107:32always love those guys, right? Like we could count on them for static stuff.

107:35It's like all right, cool. we can lean into what they're doing because they don't change for opponent and maybe that's a reason why he got fired also.

107:43So I'm be interested to see if you know what was changes if there's any wrinkles here what he brings to the table.

107:47They're a little bit handcuffed like I said from a personnel stance. Um they haven't faced a lot of good quarterbacks either which is right like they've had a

107:56really kind of favorable schedule like they faced Cooper Rush and Jack Strand combination that only Deshun Watson Tanner McKe Baker Mayfield didn't even

108:03have to throw two weeks against them. Uh but when they faced, you know, Caleb Williams, Jared Goff, and Jordan Love.

108:10>> Yeah.

108:10>> And I don't know where Bon Knicks falls in that spectrum. He definitely ain't in the latter group either, but >> but uh

108:18>> he's not Cooper Rush, you know.

108:20>> Yeah, he's not Cooper Rush either. I know he >> McKe.

108:23>> So I'm optimistic about the the Denver off as optimistic as you can be about the Denver offense.

108:30>> I am too. I think Brian >> in context in context. Troy Franklin's been real real bad. Like he's just empty

108:37routes.

108:38>> Sutton's been tough terrible.

108:39>> Sutton's been terrible. And and so you kind of have honestly like with with Brian off the field, it's sort of like

108:45two Suttons and Franklin and and Sutton just like field stretching. Um not really drawing targets. It's a little rude to Sutton, but not that rude. He's

108:55at 0.95 yards per route run. Uh Franklin's at 0.59. So he's another step down, but it's still both guys been pretty bad. Pat Bryan's at 1.46 yards

109:05per hour and plays more of like possession receiver, shallow A dot kind of role, 7.4 A dot. So I do think he's

109:12he's helpful.

109:15Sorry. So I just You guys hear how cool that that person was?

109:19>> What was that?

109:21>> Some really dumb loud car. Yeah.

109:24>> Wow, you're so cool.

109:28Uh Jaylen Wadd. Um yeah, I I you know, they're trying to get Jaylen Wadd the ball. They're really trying to get him

109:38the ball. And uh it mostly hasn't worked, but it's going to work at some point. It's not going to work nearly as

109:45often as we were hoping it would when we were drafting him in the fourth round, which was very I was very much included

109:50in that.

109:51>> But uh 24% targets per outr run, 19% first read target rate, 28% first read target share. That's 84th percentile.

109:59Like the offense is so much worse than we were hoping and he's not, you know, making it much better unfortunately, but

110:06the offense is designed to go through him and uh I I share some of your optimism for what the Broncos can

110:12potentially do here. So, yeah, like if if you're the type of person who might need to play Waddle, this would be one

110:17of the weeks.

110:18>> Yeah. And without those quarterbacks down, they've given up production receivers. Uh Jameson Williams went over 100 yards against them. Dvonte Smith

110:26seven for seven in the first McKe start.

110:28Uh and then both Packers guys got there last week against him too. So um definitely like that and and if if the

110:36if Todd Wash doesn't change anything and they continue just to run the offense that Averro was running that like big static you know single high approach

110:44that's where Wadd has 30% of the team's targets against those looks. It's just you know asterisk that we might see some

110:50new wrinkles from this defense because that guy got fired for a reason.

110:55Yeah, but it's only one week.

110:56>> It is. Yeah. And you how much can you and you're you don't have you're missing some of your best players still on

111:01defense. Like, >> right.

111:03>> What can you really do? Like if you have JC Horn and you have Mike Jack, you're like, "Oh, well, we maybe we can do some

111:08exotic stuff because we've got these guys in the the the boundary that can make some plays, but you still don't you

111:14don't have you're out those guys."

111:15>> Exactly. Uh Panthers run defense has also not been great. Jonah Coleman led the way on the ground last week. Jacob

111:24Dobins has been really really bad. Like it's finally the injury.

111:28>> Did you see the play that like I think kind did him in?

111:31>> No.

111:32>> Well, it was like a a dead 50-50 split to start out and there was a play where JK Dobbins like the play was dead the

111:39initial play call. Like he was supposed to take like a run to the left side and he was going to like lose two yards on

111:44the play. But instead of just surrendering the two- yard loss, JK Dobbins of all people thought he was gonna turn around and run and reverse

111:52field and try to get and try to beat the defense like 50 yards sideways. Ended up losing I think nine yards on the play.

111:59Never touched the ball again after that play.

112:02>> Like that was it. Just >> wow.

112:04>> They're like, "No thank you, sir. You were out of the game."

112:09>> That's wild. And then that was the door because when you and I did the show, we found out Harvey got hurt at practice

112:15and was going like, "All right, there's one more domino out of the way because Coleman can catch the ball." So like

112:21he's got like the like he can definitely get in his way into some of the passing game stuff. And we're like, "All right,

112:27one more domino to fall. He just needs to get over JK Dobbins." And JK Dobbins kind of just put the the only nails

112:34coffin and Coleman won the game for them last week. Like his play, the 51 yard catch and run was what won them the

112:42game.

112:42>> Yeah.

112:43>> Like they got to go back like you can't put this you can't put him back in the bottle.

112:48>> No. And I don't think they really want to. I mean >> Yeah.

112:52>> You kind of you you like you can't from like meaning you really should not, but also like they literally cannot because

113:00Harvey's out, right? Harvey's on IR. So >> yeah, >> they need a passcatching running back. I mean, I guess they could play Tyler

113:08Bedet or whatever, but like 3.13 yards per out run for Coleman this year. He has a 29% targets per out run.

113:16>> It's very I mean, we talked about him like he's he's kind of scam Cam Scataboo adjacent >> except, you know, they're actually using

113:24him in space. They're not just asking him to run through brick walls and stuff, you know, and but by the way, he

113:30can do that. He is an a consistent runner.

113:32>> Yes.

113:33>> 47% success rate on the ground. that's running back 11. And he's he's got like a little bit of juice, but he's he's

113:39like a bigger Kairen Williams kind of type as a as a runner. Um, but he's a really good pass catcher, you know, one of these bigger pass

113:48catchers like Scataboo was as a rookie.

113:51>> And so, yeah, I mean, he's I have him as a lowend RB1. Like, I I'm pretty excited about Coleman this week. Uh, how high

113:58are you on him?

113:59>> I have him just like right outside there, but uh no issues like with him being there. Uh I have him as a high in

114:05two just just because of the the Shawn Payeyton hijink stuff just to see but it's like >> I have been glad

114:13>> I have him right between Kairen's one spot ahead and Josh Jacobs is one spot behind which I think like archetypally

114:19like that's what I'm thinking of him as like he's he is like kind of those players >> that's that's exactly where that like

114:25the same group of dudes that I that I have him in with as well. So yeah, uh I I think this is and this is a spot too

114:32where like I like I probably ranked him a little more conservative, but like I definitely wrote that up of like I am

114:38doing this like I I definitely look conservative here as well. I'm into the upside angle in this spot for sure, right? He can catch the ball. We're

114:46hoping the offense is doing a little bit better job here against the defense that they should be able to move the football

114:52against. You're just hoping that they give us the consistency we're looking for, right? Like I was just pricing in some of the hey this offense hasn't

114:58really been good and >> uh and um could Shawn Peyton do something stupid which >> no he never does it.

115:06>> So uh but no I'm in I'm in here. I think this is uh you feel really great about if you were holding him on benches and

115:13getting him and you were kind of hesitant to use him last week because you just weren't sure and then honestly it proved to be like taking the

115:19conservative approach was fine. It just he got all his points on one drive, but you feel really bullish about him taking

115:24the backfield over at this point.

115:26>> Yeah, for sure. And in a pretty high value way because Harvey was seeing really nice. He had I think a 17% target

115:33share before he was >> Yeah, we talked about just how good he looked in his role like >> Yeah, he looked great.

115:38>> Was that Rolls was doing the Darren Sprouls thing, >> right? Right. Yeah. Yeah, if he can kind of I mean obviously he's not going to

115:45have like the full Harvey role because Harvey is a very explosive pass catcher in a way that Coleman even though he's

115:50good isn't he's not Harvey is a pass catcher you know from the the explosion that he gives you but >> but that designed play to him was I mean

115:57to him to turn into a 50 yard gain and catch and run that's like all right we're talking now >> you can get moving man.

116:03>> Yeah.

116:04>> Um all right Panthers side I noted weeks one through six Bryce Young had 9.7 EPA per game. He did have a 45% success

116:13rate, which is not great. So, he looked like a little bit, especially in retrospect now as a negative aggression candidate. He's since been at minus4.2

116:22EPA per game over his last two games.

116:24That's the worst mark uh in the league over that span. And then a 37% success rate, which is really, really bad.

116:34Uh over this span though, you'd say he looks actually like a little bit of a positive aggression candidate. uh he's he's just been so bad in EPA and the

116:43success rate is is bad but not like insanely bad. Um what are your thoughts on kind of what happened here because

116:49Young was one of the big surprises the early part of the season and it's just been so bad over the last two weeks.

116:54>> Yeah, I think this is just pretty clear.

116:55It's the it's the the state of the offensive line right now. Uh the the offensive line is just >> both tackles out

117:01>> both I mean he both tackles have been problemmed areas like all year, but like literally 50% of his pressures this year

117:08are from both tackle spots.

117:10>> Uh he's been pressured on 46% of his drop backs now. It's the second highest rate in the league. I mean these last

117:18two games just under siege and he has an ankle injury now on top of it. They're talking about trying to shake up some of

117:24this offensive line, but the guys behind these guys aren't good. like these guys are playing for a reason. It's cuz the

117:29guys behind them are bad. Like they're talking about potentially having to play Stone Foresight who's been absolutely terrible the past two years when he's

117:36played. Um we talk about him he's he's got this ankle knee injury too. Uh and he's scrambling less because of it. Like

117:44so >> he looks he does look worse, you know.

117:46>> Yeah, he's only scrambled on 2% of his dropbacks because his mobility is way down. I mean he's been when he's been

117:52pressured the past five weeks, he's 24th in completion rate. He's 20th in yards per pass attempt and he's 18th in sack

117:59rate. The past two games just against the Bucks and Packers under pressure.

118:03He's 10 of 26 for four yards or pass and 11 sacks when pressured. Like and they're aware of this. Like last week

118:10they knew they couldn't pass protect.

118:12They actually called for the first time a runheavy game plan >> to kind of protect himself. So it's a bummer because they were looking fun.

118:19like they were doing the stuff we like you would want to do for a guy you picked up on a fifth year option and you

118:24wanted to throw him to the fire and he was responding well to it and it feels like this is going to be roadblocked now

118:30especially against the freaking Denver Broncos.

118:33>> That's the thing >> like this is and they have a they have a game with the Vikings coming up too and

118:37it's just like this is it feels like this is just getting obliterated. the fun we were we were potentially going to

118:42have for this offense outside of Chuba Hubard being like a volume based like play just looks like it's falling apart on us.

118:50>> It does. And like one of the nice things about this offense is how condensed it is. And you're seeing Tedo McMillan, you

118:58know, 1.33 yards per hour and against the Bucks, which was another bad game and a run a runheavy game as well um for

119:05the Panthers. And then 1.29 29 yards per hour run against the Packers and he's the better of the two over that span.

119:13Jaylen Coker 030 and 0.84 yards per out run. Um so it's just been brutal.

119:20There's just been no production. Um like we we kind of do know where the targets are going to go but but we can't get any

119:26production out of it. Um Chuba Hubard is at least totally owning the backfield.

119:3396% of the team carries last week. 26% target share. He's kind of benefiting, I think, a little bit from the immobility

119:40and the the inability to protect Young where they're just they're actually starting to involve him as a receiver.

119:4519% target share against the Bucks, then 26% last week. He's not a good pass catcher, but you know, this offense is

119:55flailing and I Yeah, the Broncos are an awesome defense. They get pressure really effectively, frequently, quickly.

120:02They blitz a lot. Um, this is not a good situation for the Panthers to find themselves. So, it's really kind of

120:09volume based play. Chupa >> Hubard.

120:13I think he gets a lot of volume though and the Broncos are worse against the run and we've just seen the the Panthers

120:18pivot to the run as you mentioned and I think they continue to do that here.

120:22>> Yeah. And you're and you're still probably playing T. We dock him. Coker's a guy I think you can probably get away

120:26from at this point if you have alternatives like we just tal I would play Antonio Williams I think over Coker.

120:32uh in this in this spot.

120:34>> I mean, it's just so it's been you're saying we're getting like zero like we're getting close to zeros. Like >> I mean like this could be like it's just

120:44really rough. Like the the production's that low. Like the range of outcomes are that low.

120:51>> Yeah, it is. It's really I don't think I'm quite that low on Coker, but I'm I just lowered him a few

121:00spots. And >> that was the the lack of push back that I had on that was like, "Yeah, I'm going to lower him."

121:07>> I mean, he saved that game. He saved his game last week with that like that awesome catch and run for his touchdown

121:13and he still didn't and he still didn't even have 10 PPR points.

121:17>> I know, man.

121:21>> Like, >> I've been helping my wife with uh with the knockout. It's like, you know, guillotine league, but it's >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. ESPN, they call it

121:31knockout. Um, and so they it's like AJ Brown, DJ Moore, you know, all these banged up receivers. I'm like, let's just let's just pick up Jaylen Coker and

121:40play him and and make sure we get some points in the lineup. And so for the vast majority of that game, I was like,

121:45oh no, they're going to get going to get eliminated and it's going to be my fault.

121:50>> Um, so that catch and run was I don't think it actually the team's pretty good. So Coker could have could have

121:55been a zero. It would have been fine actually, but uh I didn't know that at the time. It was Thursday night.

122:00>> Yeah, Thursday night that zero. Listen, when you catch that zero when your guys you ever we've all been here and also

122:05the inverse like when a guy scores on you, I guess I can't win this week.

122:10>> [ __ ] >> What am I going to do? None of my guys have played, but I lost.

122:18>> Yeah.

122:19>> Oh man. Yeah, that's that's the tilting island game experience >> for sure.

122:24>> But yeah, it's I think it's just real tough to be bullish on any anyone here outside of like, you know, uh you know,

122:31hover from a volume based play and then like I said, you're probably in a spot to bench Ted, >> but it's not good. It don't look good.

122:38>> I don't think I'd start him in in an guillotine league, right? Not >> look good, man. I mean, against Patrick

122:45Certan, >> it doesn't look good.

122:49Yeah.

122:50>> Yeah. And this is another one of those offenses that you watch and you're just like, man, this is not this is not

122:55working.

122:57>> It's just it's unfortunate because, you know, the offensive line is already like a weak league position. If you have one

123:02bad offensive lineman, like it could make a good unit look bad and they have four bad offensive linemen. looks like.

123:11>> Yeah, it is one of those ones where the inseason injuries when they start to pile up and it's funny because it's it

123:17can it's one of those positions where you can kind of work around it until you can't like if you lose a guard and then

123:24you have like kind of a bad guard and it's like ah we'll be all right. But then if like you lose the tackle next to

123:30that guard >> and it sounds like they're gonna try to move some chairs here uh and see if maybe they can find a combination that

123:38works better, but it's it's just a real tough spot. And the quarterback's hurt, too. Like like I said, the quarterback's clearly banged up too on top of it.

123:48>> Yeah. And he needs to be able to like scramble around and, you know, buy a little time and and all that. Um

123:57Yeah. All right, Texans at Chargers. Um, Chargers defense kind of good.

124:05Maybe real good.

124:10>> Yeah, they're >> Yeah, they're the defense that they they Well, the Chargers in general are just a a team that sucks the life out of a game

124:19because now the defense is like pretty good. They make teams the past defense has been good. It makes teams want to

124:25run because the pass defense is good and then the team is bad. So teams are also want to run because they're ahead and

124:30then the Chargers are running the ball because they're trying to simulate to end. Although I will say they threw the ball more efficiently last week than the

124:41well the outside of the two books that Herbert threw. But Herbert completed 75% of his passes when it was eight yards

124:47per pass attempt. Both were season highs. Uh Kurt Warner I thought had a really good breakdown on why this isn't working especially when the intercept

124:56because when you see >> I saw that he was the he was Madison Beer's Instagram he pulled up >> because when you when you see these

125:09interceptions he's throwing it's like to the football average football fan you're like how the [ __ ] did anyone throw that

125:14like >> Yeah. Yeah.

125:15>> Like what the hell? like he I mean literally threw the ball two at two Rams like right at two Rams guys and like

125:22Kurt Warner was basically talking about how in the other the previous offenses that he was in he was taught to read

125:28defenders to like kind of dictate where the ball goes in Mike McDaniel's offense is you dictate the receiver. So like he's watching the receiver as a key and

125:36he's like this guy's open has no idea the defender is where he's it it where he's at. So he's like oh [ __ ] I was my

125:43key was to the receiver. I just threw a ball right at a dude that I didn't know existed and that wasn't it's it's just

125:48like a bummer because like none of this is working like all these changes they've made and we you know I not

125:53everyone thought this was going to work but I definitely was like I was excited.

125:57>> I was too.

125:58>> I was excited about it. I was excited about it and it's been a colossal disaster and a failure on every level

126:05cuz >> it's a bummer because like Herbert was already a polarizing player and you know for the general public but like dude he

126:12was never this [ __ ] bad like even if you even if you were a detractor and you even this was never the argument. The

126:19argument was >> he was a good player >> who people would hold up as if he was an elite player.

126:25>> Yeah. If you thought if if you're like if you were anti-Herbert, it's because you basically thought he was like >> CJ Strad with with like better with a

126:35better, you know, PR agent.

126:37>> Yeah, better PR.

126:38>> Yeah, better PR.

126:40>> And this dude, he's just I mean, he's playing at a level where this is clearly like the worst. Like, it's just

126:46terrible, man. It's it's absolutely horrible.

126:49>> It's uh I mean, you you kind of laid out some bright spots. Last week he was ninth percentile in EPA per play. That

126:55was that's the worst he's been all year.

126:57>> Well, because those those turnovers are that like they're just gonna nuke EPA.

127:02>> Yeah, >> that's true.

127:05>> Especially when they turn into touchdowns immediately like that, you know, they're getting rubbed back.

127:08You're throwing them on your side of the field and >> Well, yeah. He was 20th percentile on success rate, which is also horrendous.

127:15>> Yeah.

127:17>> So, I don't know, man. It's just it's pretty bad. Texans defense is >> I wrote the Texans def I wrote Texans

127:24defense up as the Justin Herbert of past defenses this year.

127:27>> You are the Justin Herbert of past defenses.

127:30>> So can Justin Herbert beat the Justin Herbert of past defenses?

127:33>> I don't think so. I think that Justin Herbert of pass defense is a better bet to bounce back than Justin Herbert

127:38himself >> in part because the the the Texan or the um the Chargers are not >> passing the ball minus 7% poe last week.

127:49uh they are playing a ton like the Dolphins where you have I mean this is just I have a chart where you look at

127:55you know expected pass rate pass rate over expected and and then pass rate and you end up in the in the top left if

128:04you're just in really high expected pass rates and still just refusing to pass ball. like an Arthur Smith Falcons kind of kind of zone and it's the Dolphins

128:13and the Chargers are the two team two teams there and it's just that to me is one of the most depressing parts about

128:19this Chargers season. It's like dude you have Justin Herbert >> and you're acting like you know you're going to need to I mean this they look

128:29like a team that doesn't have a quarterback that needs to draft a new quarterback, right? Like I'm not saying they do. I'm I think they need a new

128:36coach, you know, and get this figured out again with Herbert because we've seen him be so much better than this.

128:40But but just it's to a level of a team that's in the quarterback wilderness.

128:46And it's like how how is this where we're at with Justin Herbert as your quarterback? Because I mean, yeah, I I

128:52have not been a Herbert is Herbert's efficiency has never been amazing. He's more been like good efficiency and you can load him up with volume, which I

129:01which is good. Like I think that is sometimes an underrated part of quarterback play, you know, compared to like a Jimmy Garopppolo where it's like

129:07as long as we like curate this and manage it just right, he'll be really efficient. But the second that we need

129:12him to step up and take a game over, we're going to lose that game.

129:15>> Yeah.

129:16>> You know, and Herbert's like the opposite where >> it was never like a perfect system, but you could make him the engine of it and

129:22you'd get there. Kind of more like like Dak Prescott or something like that. But I don't I don't think he's as good as

129:28Dak certainly anymore. Um, and probably probably he never never was. But, you know, it's just to see it looking this

129:38badly is is is kind of crazy. And I think they'll probably run the ball a bunch and not really challenge um he can't I mean

129:49>> more vulnerable defense than you would have expected.

129:51>> I guess I guess they gave up a bunch yard to the Giants, but they typically this was a good run defense before that

129:56Giants game. Um that's like that was like the one saving grace is that they were good against Ron and they were just

130:02giving up so many explosives. Uh they're not a bad defense from like a success rate stance either. It's just the explosives are killing them. Like

130:10they're just >> they're they're third best against the past the Texans uh in success rate.

130:17>> Yeah. Just from a success rate standoint.

130:19>> Yeah. It's just the the hu they've allowed 51 pass plays of 15 or more yards of 29 pass plays of 20 or more

130:25yards. That's 31st and 30th and they've had a buy like >> wow. Uh like yo that's what's killing that's just what killing them like third

130:34downs uh and just these big plays man and the Charters aren't getting many big plays so maybe it won't matter but JJ

130:42McCarthy was seven of 12 uh and throws 10 or more yards against them before the buy for 200 yards again you're at at

130:51this point like I don't know who's starting any Chargers outside of LAD but >> I'm starting Lad and >> that's it right like

130:58>> like >> Hampton is going to get more touches apparently according to McDaniel. But it's that's almost bearish because I feel like Videll would be the best

131:06option if they just loaded him. If I could like pick someone to just get all the touches this week, I think I'd pick

131:12Videl.

131:12>> And also when he's telling us that is is he just telling us they're planning to run more because they're not throwing

131:18the Hampton like >> Yeah. Yeah, that's a good point. That's actually bearish for the offense.

131:26Yeah, it's uh it's pretty brutal. Um Texans side of this. Uh we we don't have Jaylen Null out with a season ending

131:37turf toe injury. Um Marvin Harrison's now had the by-week to get more up to speed. I imagine he'll be kind of in the

131:4450 to 60% round participation range at this point.

131:47>> Uh Kahan Booty is still like in the the 40s in round participation, so there's routes he can take directly from Booty.

131:55Um, null is a slot receiver and so doesn't directly open up routes for Harrison, but I think Harrison will, you know, be able to basically Booty's been

132:02keeping a seat warm there. And then Xavier Hutchinson, I guess, will probably >> be the starting slot, but they do, they

132:09did have Tank Dell back last week. He was at 21% round participation. You could see him kind of more in the 40 to

132:1650% range this week as well. probably playing more on the outside, but that would allow Nico to kick into the slot a

132:23bit, Harrison to kick into the slot.

132:24Harrison's played 30 and 33% of his snaps in the slot with uh the Texans.

132:29So, he can play inside some and I think Dell will see the field some. So, basically, the way I wrote it up is I

132:35think it's kind of like Nico for sure and then probably Harrison are like your two receivers that you care about now.

132:43Um, and Harrison's obviously a little bit speculative because we don't know how much he's going to play. Uh, but Hutchson and Dell I think are going to

132:50kind of cannibalize each other.

132:52>> Yeah, I don't think they're going to have like a set slot like a slot like a slot only guy like Null was kind of a

132:57slot only guy. He was like 75%. I don't think they're going to we're going to have anyone like that. I think you're

133:03going to have a lot of guys moonlighting in the slot >> um to kind of replace that.

133:07>> Harrison big slot could actually be pretty fun.

133:10>> Yeah, it could be fun. Um I the thing I'm really curious to see coming out of the buy is how Nico Collins looks. Um,

133:18I'm I'm pretty sure he hasn't been healthy. Uh, I pulled up three different places and they all checked out. Uh, he's dead last in ESPN's open score.

133:30>> Yep.

133:30>> At fantasy point separation score, he's 23rd percentile. He's historically been like around in the 80th percentile. And then at nextg stats, he's the fifth

133:38lowest separation per target. So like you take a grain of salt with however you want to decide. All three of these

133:44are coming to the same conclusion that this guy's not getting open, >> right?

133:48>> And I don't like, you know, he had the hamstring injury, came back. Uh so I'm physically I want to see what he looks

133:55like here and if he >> he doesn't get like like an open score because I pulled it up last year. He

134:00wasn't like great last year.

134:02>> Yeah. But he was good in like the other that's why I started cross reference referencing the other sites too because

134:08like fantasy points had him in 2025 like as a really good separation score >> and I was like all right and then but

134:16they're all arriving at the same point this year that he's not getting open >> and he hasn't been earning targets because he's not getting everyone's like

134:22well what happened to his target share.

134:24It would explain a lot why his targets are going down. It's not just the guys like there's more bodies. He he probably

134:29isn't getting uncovering as much either.

134:32And it's pretty dramatic where so he was um 27% targets per out run in week one, misses two games, comes back 27%

134:41>> and then uh 1913 and 21 >> over the last three three weeks. So yeah, it has dropped off considerably since since the Cowboys game.

134:50>> Yeah. So I just want to see how he looks. I mean, I figure he's he's still the guy that's like the one guy that's

134:55playing all the time out of all of these guys. So, >> right, >> I I really want to say because we don't

135:02want this whole situation to deteriorate to the point where we can't trust anybody in the offense either. Like, we still want to be able to trust him and

135:11his yards for runner still good on the season. So, like I don't it's this is I'm not throwing anything out and saying

135:16like the sky is falling. I just >> Stout does trust him, right?

135:20>> I want to see him bounce back though physically. I want to see him look better out of here. And it honestly, we

135:25might not get a full reveal if the Chargers pass defense is still good and they don't face any targets. They're third they face the third fewest targets

135:31because they don't face a lot of pass volume, >> right?

135:36Yeah. And I don't have a ton of faith in in the Chargers here, unfortunately. I wish I did. Like it it would be fun. I

135:42mean, Her Herbert, it's it's been such a bummer because like Herbert, we can't we didn't have a good quarterback to give

135:49up, right? Yeah, >> like this is a league where we're like I just watched Joe Fano play last year, >> especially one that has like no like

135:56he's not getting benched or anything like so you just have to like live with bad quarterback play here.

136:01>> Yeah, it's so it's so brutal. Um Daltton Schultz all know was up to 72% round participation against the Giants but 53%

136:09against the Jags the week before that and then 56% against the the Titans. So that's a little bit of a risk and as you

136:16mentioned I mean we can't expect a ton of overall drop back volume here. So, >> yeah, >> it's uh I have him as a high-end Titan,

136:23too, but not not very excited about him, >> right?

136:28>> All right, moving to um I promised a good four:00 window, but uh that's not the best the best game of the four

136:36o'clock window, >> you might as well do Cardinal Seahawks and then we'll do the two better.

136:41>> Yeah. Okay, let's go to Cardinal Seahawks and get it out of the way.

136:44>> Um another game I mean, let's talk Seahawks. another game where we have uh a backup quarterback

136:52or did or is was the guy who just uh has a has a quad injury, a very serious quad injury.

137:00>> Rib injury.

137:03>> Uh Darnold has been struggling. He's at minus 0.2 EPA per game. So basically neutral in EPA, which is not good. Your,

137:13you know, passing game is supposed to be efficient. He he hasn't been. 45% success rate. Pretty pretty rough stuff.

137:19Um, you know, not terrible, but but below what you would expect. And then Drew Lockach, 52% pass uh 52% success rate, which is quarterback six. 12.5 EPA

137:29per game this year, which is quarterback two behind only Josh Allen. So, he's played shockingly well. Um, I think that doesn't reflect how he'll play going

137:38forward. And frankly, I think the way Darnold's played, you know, I would bet on Darnold to beat the baseline he set

137:43so far once he's healthy again. Um, so kind of somewhere in the middle of those two numbers is where I'd expect Drew

137:50Lock to fall here normally, but he gets a Cardinals pass defense that's pretty bad. So, what are your thoughts on how

137:56Drew Lock's going to perform here taking over for Darnold this week?

137:59>> Yeah, Cardinals uh have surprisingly been a little bit better in recent weeks. You know, Stafford was at 6.7 yards for pass attempt against them. Bo

138:08Nicks uh got there from a fantasy point perspective, but really wasn't really good in that game. And then last week, Dak 6.7 yards for pass attempt.

138:17>> Uh they went from allowing 20 passing points per game to 13.9 the past three weeks. But overall, like when you still

138:24look at like top down, like they still are a defense that I don't want to lean into that small sample and say they're

138:29good defense either that we should avoid. Like I would say if you had Darnold and you picked up Lock or you

138:34picked up Lock in your 2QB league, there's still upside here, right? Uh you know, Arizona is they don't get any pressure on the quarterback. uh they're

138:43really bad against play action. Like these are this is like a structure of an offense that gives them trouble. Uh we

138:49saw that with Lock in the first game where Lock had 20 fantasy points against them. So I'm I'm still optimistic. He

138:54has an elbow injury, too, which is just something else to price in a little bit for variance, but I'm still optimistic

139:00that he'll be effective, not turn the ball over to the degree Darnold had been turning the ball over and be able to

139:06keep this thing on track. I also think it helps him in this spot that the defense just had their worst performance

139:12of maybe two years with when when when they've been healthy and they are going to pistol whip Gardner Mchu in this game

139:20like I would expect that like in Seattle like >> the gunslinger gets pistol whipped. The other thing too that we love about uh

139:29Lockach in these backup quarterbacks, we're gonna see it with Wentz especially because Went funny, they interviewed Wentz and he's like, "Listen man, I'm

139:35throwing the Justin Jefferson as much as I can." Lock when he came in the sample that we saw him play, you know what he

139:41did?

139:41>> He just threw jacks with a jigma like >> he he he ran 47 routes with Drew Lock in the basically it was it was basically

139:50two full games, right? Because Darnold got hurt in the season got hurt immedately. Yeah. like I u he he was targeted on 45% of his routes

139:58>> with Drew Lock 5.6 yards per out rod uh in seven career games against Nick Rollis defenses Jackson Smith and Jigba

140:0619.4 four fantasy points per game. And this includes like when he was playing with like DK that sounds >> that's how that's how crazy he's been.

140:14When you said 19, anything that below 20, I was like >> Yeah. Seven touchdown.

140:20>> 3.3 yards for out run. Yeah. And in the the last two match ups that they faced, you know, 42 and 50% target shares.

140:27>> So, >> he's checking in like an early DFS stuff not to be popular. And it's like I remember we were in this spot in week

140:35two and everyone was like not playing him and I'm like man still kind of want to play him.

140:41>> I have him as the number one receiver this week. I had him above um Puka even.

140:44I think he's like >> he's gonna he's going to get there guys.

140:49He always gets there. Uh he's going to be >> and Arizona's been getting flooded by wide receiver ones. So you know outside

140:56of him as well you know removing him from it. So I think the planes built out of him. I will say one thing to note

141:02though is the last two times these teams have played and one was a Drew lock start is the running backs have gotten a

141:10zillion touches. Uh Seattle running backs have 38 and 35 runs in the last two matchups between these teams. So I

141:19know like there's a split here but it's a split where I think both guys could have a significant number of touches.

141:27>> I agree. They patted Emanuel Wilson on the ass last week and said, "Thanks for your service. Thanks for holding down

141:33the floor."

141:34>> Exactly. Yeah. No, it's it's Charbanet was kind of the second complimentary runner, but but more of a passing game role and Price was the primary guy on

141:43the ground, but you know, Price hasn't run that well and you know, Charbanet will be in a second game back. So, I

141:48could certainly see the case if you had Charbanet as like an RB, you know, in your RB2 spot where if you don't have a

141:55better option, I could I could see playing him here for sure. Uh, the Cardinals are like worse against the pass than the run, but it's the

142:03Seahawks. You know, the Seahawks love to run the ball. I'm not again worried about JSN because they're going to be the whole passing game. He's going to

142:11have like a 50% target share potentially, so like he'll be he'll be all right. Um, I mentioned that if I was

142:17going to play a uh like a and I don't know how deep a league this would have to be, but if I was going to play a

142:24nonJSN wide receiver, I actually think Tory Horton's a little more interesting in this matchup because you would just kind of be hoping to catch a deep bomb,

142:32uh, the volume, like a volume based nonJSN play like that doesn't work because JSN's taking all the volume. Um yeah, on on the Cardinal side, uh

142:43Michael Wilson's now banged up.

142:46>> Um Trey McBride has actually had some production against the Seahawks in the past. Uh he was reasonably productive in week two.

142:54>> He had a 40% targets per out run in that game. Just a 4.3 ADOT, though.

142:59>> Um in week 10 of last year, he had 23.2 two PPR points. Uh 28% targets per outr run. Uh you you've talked about this

143:10with McBride kind of being able to rack up stuff underneath against the Seahawks and them not like super worried about that.

143:17>> They're not they're just like go ahead.

143:19>> Yeah. So that's I mean f like great, you know, that works for us.

143:24>> Everyone's happy. Um, but if if Wilson's banged up, I mean that becomes a pro like you would certainly want Wilson to be playing in this game if

143:34you're playing McBride because you need >> the Seahawks to be viewing McBride as sort of like, yeah, that's fine. But if

143:40it's just McBride, they'll just take away McBride >> and then the offense crumbles.

143:47>> Yeah, 100%. And you we lost Kendrick Bourne last week, too. Jaylen Brooks has already been out. It's they're absolutely uh struggling here. And I I

143:57think too when you come off of uh that and Ben Johnson, man, and and what what a great game plan that they had that

144:04them to have that type of showing too on prime time. I wouldn't want to be going up against this defense this week. Like

144:10it feels like this is >> feel it feels like a real rough spot for you know the the Cardinals. Uh you know,

144:18you don't have Jeremiah Love like Alier coming off that game like this. They're like it just I'm outside of McBride even

144:25Wil like Wilson I I'm not even super bullish on either. Uh but obviously you know targets got to go somewhere. So I I

144:32understand the game as well. But two two catches for 18 yards and these teams played earlier in the year. I think it's

144:38largely McBride's the only guy I'm interested in even able to be like have like a floor I believe in in this spot.

144:44And if you if you do need a body for Algier like I get it right. Like if you're hey you're pinned down. I just

144:49needed a a a warm body touching the football. I get it.

144:53>> The the thing about the Alir spot is that like in almost any other situation, you'd be looking at him as like a

145:00high-end RB2. Just like this guy's a backfield, >> you know, and that's worth a ton, but I have him as a highend RB3

145:08>> because it's like I mean that's how big a deal I think this matchup is um as far as docking him. So yeah, I mean this is

145:16going to be ugly I think. And do like do you think we could see Beck next week?

145:21>> They're getting ramped up in practice.

145:23Uh I thought their schedule still had a couple more like real bad spots because I always thought that we >> get the Rams at home.

145:30>> Okay.

145:30>> Next, which is not as bad as you would have thought.

145:33>> I remember writing this up in the preseason about them and saying I I expected all three quarterbacks to play because they had the late by-eek and

145:40they had a really tough schedule and I was like there's not really a great spot to onboard Beck until the end of the

145:45season. So I always thought it was going to be like a brassette to Mchu to Beck and it's kind of right what's happening

145:50because I mean dude you could start him at home against the Rams then you go at Kansas City I would say the next two

145:57that after the Kansas City game he starts right at home commanders at home Eagles >> at home Jets after that. Yeah that's a

146:04good spot. I would say a I would say Mchu gets these next three weeks. You give them all these you give them

146:08practice reps as the two for three weeks and then commanders Eagles and maybe it's expedited if it's just that bad and

146:14they >> you're also probably three and eight after those three games because they're three and five now.

146:19>> So you lose the next three games, you're three and eight, you're not making the playoffs, you're at home for three

146:25straight games. That's probably where we see back.

146:27>> Yeah, that that seems like the best place because he had been kind of banged up too and was dealing with some kind of

146:32back injury.

146:34Uh, I will say too before you transition to this game, as we went live, the Rams rolled Terrence Ferguson out.

146:40>> No, >> someone's listening to that in real time, that whole segment and like you dummy.

146:48>> Well, what what are your thoughts on I mean, I had Higgby I got to move Higgby back up a little.

146:56>> I have Higgby as a tight end, too.

146:57>> You dummy. But I had Ferguson was like I mean it was Yeah, Canada Mumfield is their field stretcher now.

147:07>> Yeah, >> I tell you what, I feel better about that that puka take that I uh I mean obviously gonna get fed, but

147:13>> yeah, low low a dot. It's going to be all low a dot stuff.

147:17>> Yep. Yep.

147:19Um All right.

147:24What's the Oh, the uh that was the last game that I had there. So, let me let me get to another game we haven't covered.

147:31Do you want to do Packers at Patriots or Raiders at 49ers, too?

147:34>> Whichever one is fine to me.

147:36>> All right, let's um let's do Raiders at 49ers first. This game's pretty fun because we got the the tight end

147:42showdown here.

147:43>> Mhm.

147:44>> KD and Bowers. Bowowers. Um >> last week, >> what' you say?

147:50>> One's a tight end.

147:51>> One's a tight end. Yeah, exactly.

147:53Bowowers did have a season high rate of inline snaps last week. 24% of his snaps in line. Um but then he also had a

148:04season high 55% of his snaps out wide.

148:07>> So he just didn't play the slot a lot.

148:09They're moving him around.

148:12>> It's great. Like I I don't like you like >> this is I this is a great situation to be in because you're like it's so clear

148:18that Clint Kubak has like a plan for that specific matchup. he's going to utilize Bowers. He also changed like during the Rams game, the usage kind of

148:27shifted over the course of the game. He wasn't working to have him outside so much. So, he's brought back more in the

148:32slot. And >> um even though he didn't play in line at all, he was still moving around 60% of his snaps in the slot against the Rams,

148:38which was a season high there. Um you know, as we talked about their slot corner, um is good, but not quite as

148:46good as McDuffy. So anyway, we have Bowowers is going to be moved around and like Clint, you figure it out. Like

148:54that's you're paid a lot of money to do like you're going to do that better than me, but it's nice to see that he is

149:00doing it right. So, uh, you know, just feel a lot of confidence about Bowowers kind of being able to get there

149:06regardless of the matchup. And that the 49ers pass rush hasn't looked very good this year. Um, normally you'd maybe be a

149:13little bit nervous about a tight end against the 49ers, but in this case, I don't think I mean, Bowers isn't a tight

149:19end. That's a that's a Michael Mayer problem.

149:21>> I mean, his his low games have been like six for 70. It's like it's it's hard to really say like, all right, where's the

149:30floor here, right? Like, it's it's just been really rock solid. He's the only pass catcher you can count on uh in this

149:36offense. Now, now that Clint Kubak kind of said there was going to be changes going to last week and obviously the big

149:41one was the back field, but he also ghosted Trey Tucker who had been playing well.

149:46>> Yeah, weirdly. Yeah, 63% round participation.

149:49>> Yeah, they played Jack Bash and a lot of the heavy personnel stuff and Tucker lost those snaps and like I said, Tucker

149:54had been playing well before then. So, that was kind of an interesting spot here. Um, 49ers getting really healthy out of the buy. They obviously traded

150:04for DeForest Buckner. Nick Bosa looks like he's on track to play. Upton Stout is also coming back. They just straight up cut Jack Jones during the buy. They

150:12were like, "Nah, man." Like we're not like he had he was having to play and was awful. They cut him. Uh defensively,

150:19they look pretty good. Like this is a good team. Like outside of Bowers, I think this is a trap spot for a lot of

150:24the other guys. And it could I could be wrong because the Raiders have just been getting there. And maybe Kubak, you

150:29know, a lot of familiarity here on both coaching staffs. So maybe it's enough to where they're able to design some stuff

150:35that's getting open. But defensively, like all the stuff Raheem Morris is doing is anti the stuff that's successful for Kurt Cousins. And we've

150:43already seen them play Matthew Stafford and Sam Darnold and take away that stuff against both of those guys.

150:49>> Uh you know, the 49ers, they face the lowest throw rate on throws between the numbers. They make you throw everything

150:53short and outside the numbers.

150:55>> And that's like not what Kirk Cousins wants to do at all. At all, man. Uh, so it looks on paper to be a bad matchup,

151:03but the Raiders have been finding a way to be productive and and push production in these. Sometimes in garbage time, but

151:09sometimes in garbage, we don't care about that. We don't We'll take it.

151:12We'll take it.

151:13>> We will definitely take it.

151:15>> But so yeah, they keep finding a way to get there. Vegas is also pricing this in. Like their team total is is

151:21significantly lower than what they typically score. So like they're kind of counting this against them, too.

151:27>> Yeah. But when you look at the 49ers team total, it's very high. 30.5.

151:34>> Oh yeah, baby.

151:35>> So I mean, you are talking about negative game script and that's great for like Bowers. We just, you know, we

151:42want pass volume. We know he's going to get a really high target rate. He'll be fine. Mayor's a checkdown option really

151:48when he succeeded. Same deal last week against the Jets. He had a 30% targets per out run, but only a 15% first read

151:54target rate. So, you know, underneath checkown option, 6.2 A dot last week when he did the same thing against the Bills. He was at a 4.3 A DOT. Um, very

152:04efficient in both games, not scoring a ton of PPR points, but, you know, kind of just like PPR scamming his way. I

152:09think he set up, you know, reasonably well for that. Again, Trey Tucker was really strange last week as we mentioned. I mean, just not out there a

152:17ton, but he's been so good that I I do think if you're looking at him like, hey, I need a guy who can kind of get

152:24loose and >> the plan can't get Jack Bash reps.

152:29>> It can't be. And they're just not in position where like, okay, you're going against the Jets. It's going to be this

152:34big, you know, back and forth battle as it turns out, but one where you can still run the ball.

152:41>> Yeah, true. That's true. you know, and and it's also the Mike Washington audition game, which like woof. But 76% of the carries for for Washington. Jensy

152:52was at 6%. Uh Washington had 22.9 expected points last week. Uh scored 8.3. Uh pretty pretty rough stuff for

153:02Washington, but that's just like not where they're going to be at this week.

153:05Like they're not they're going to have to be chucking it a bunch.

153:08>> Yeah. So, I mean, Gent's obviously taken a huge hit from, you know, what we were thinking he was, but he

153:16maybe he's closer to Bree Hall in in kind of the the role this week, but they're going to have to >> this could be a throw you though.

153:25>> What do you mean?

153:26>> And just like remember Scott who got benched at one game and it's like maybe >> just like sending a message.

153:30>> Yeah. Well, he had the remember he had the comments too before the game against the Jets and I don't think that like

153:36Kubak seemed to be perturbed by that a little bit too. Uh, also Mike Washington was trash. It was shocking.

153:42>> He was so bad.

153:43>> Well, I mean like Mike Washington tricked people for a couple runs against light boxes. I was like, "Oh, like he

153:49does look better than JT, right?" And just like no, man. So, he finally had to run against big boy defenses like on

153:54early downs and and we also found out we knew though also we know the problem is not really either of these guys, right?

154:02Like it's your run game is awful.

154:06>> Well, Gent's like been he looks he still looks so good as a receiver.

154:10>> I know that's what we talked about like why doesn't it compute to the run game, but we've also known that the run game

154:15isn't just Jy's fault, >> right? Right.

154:19>> And and we found we got more confirmation about that last week.

154:23>> Yeah. Exactly. Exactly. Um but it's almost irrelevant this week.

154:27>> It is. It's completely irrelevant. I mean, he does the thing that's weird about this matchup, and I've seen some people talk about this too, is like how

154:34the 49ers are giving up all these catches to running backs, but JT is a a weird he gets like downfield targets

154:41>> and the 49ers like for just force a bunch of checkdowns, >> right? So, it's a kind of a unique dynamic even in that sense.

154:49>> That is interesting. Maybe maybe will get get fed again, but it's like there's not real much upside to mayor. So,

154:55>> no. No. But you think about like like you're not cuz you're also not going to get like JT on like wheel routes against

155:01Fred freaking Warner like >> No. And that's what I think is really compelling about this matchup too from that regard because it's like oh like

155:07typically we'd be like oh we'll smash the receiving role in this which you so can but it's usually the types of

155:12checkdown stuff where JT's been like cooking downfield.

155:16>> Yeah.

155:17Yeah. It's so strange because because when with the running stuff you're like oh maybe he's not healthy but then when you see

155:22>> No, he looks electric in the past.

155:23>> He looks electric. Yeah.

155:25>> I don't get it.

155:27>> Is it's it's just a bizarre thing man.

155:28And we're not expecting them to want even game surprise the ball like 49ers like said getting Buckner and Bosa back >> could change the complete dynamics what

155:38we're even dealing with here.

155:40>> Yeah.

155:42One thing that maybe like maybe could change this game a little bit um and make it more competitive um is if the

155:5149ers are are really conservative here because the Raiders really uh bad against the run >> uh dead last DBA >> 23rd EPA 24th success rate.

156:02>> Um you know Kalin Black could get uh more run here. McCaffry's banged up. um he'll play but you know they they've

156:12been >> but they've always kept his they've always even cons they've consistently kept McCaffry's rushing attempts where like they've been static with that it's

156:22the receiving stuff he gets a bump with Evans out but the rushing like you can expect Kayn Black >> from a percentage stance like it has not

156:29moved like from percentage of rushes like when they both played >> well it went up last week as >> well because Mcaffrey left the middle of

156:37the game but even even when McAffrey had like that like the big touch game against Washington from a rushing percentage stance. It it was it ne

156:46nothing moved. It was all the receiving it was the receiving stuff that changed.

156:51>> Right. And that's what's kind of interesting about this match up because um the Raiders are also awful against the pass. 27th in TVA, 25th EPA, 30th

157:01success rate. You have Brock Pury uh at 11.1 EPA per game. hasn't been quite as efficient over the last few weeks. You

157:10know, was bad against Seattle, bounced back against the Commanders, kind of middling against the Falcons in week seven. But I mean, the guy like

157:17literally doesn't have any receivers.

157:18His top three receivers this week are going to be Brandon Cooks, Jordan Watkins, and Jacob Cowing.

157:23>> No, Demarcus Robinson's back.

157:25>> Oh, >> I take I take it all back.

157:29>> Be excited about that. Be excited about that.

157:33>> I'm not I'm not excited. And you can't make me excited. Uh George KD, I mean, obviously, is is somehow just better

157:40than he was before he tore his Achilles.

157:42Um which is awesome. And you know, we're excited about him this week for sure. I mean, he he could >> Oh, yeah.

157:48>> He could absolutely smash. But I mean, there's no there's literally no receivers unless you're a big uh Demarcus Robinson head. Mhm.

157:56>> I'm a little more bullish on him than you, but in the context of like >> maybe as like a if you're playing pretty

158:02and DFS as a cheaper stack option, not a guy outside of like 14 team leagues to be excited about. But because we saw

158:09when he was going to start that game against the Dolphins, I mean, he was targeted three times in seven routes, had 34 yards, and that's when he got the

158:15ankle injury. So, I >> it's helpful to have him back. Um, >> yeah, >> I I don't think it's >> I mean, he's he's just better than what

158:23Brandon Cooks was giving them is all bas that's the the crux of my stance on it.

158:28But I think they're going to throw a lot to KD and McCaffrey.

158:31>> Yeah, I think you're right. I think you're right. Yeah, I think pretty much everyone thinks that and they're all right

158:38>> 100%. And I don't think Perie will be effective. He's just got to protect the football better against Atlanta. Like he

158:43he was still really good in the Atlanta game. It was the turnovers that got him.

158:47Uh, you know, Jesse Bates had that real sick interception on the sideline, but just got to just got to protect football.

158:55>> Um, what are your thoughts on McAffrey here as far as like he's set up well? Is he set up like extremely well? I I ended

159:03up ranking Kenneth Walker ahead of him like for example >> and I think that'll probably be against industry consensus but >> I did too as well just just because of

159:13the well one he the rushing stuff's been static like they've been really managing his rush attempts but I am bullish on

159:19the stance from like the receiver stuff and the matchup's good but I also want to just price in some of the hamstring

159:25stuff like they're they're big favorites here man like they >> they have been doing we we talked about our favorite DD like he's been doing

159:32been a thing this year. Like he's been he's been understanding the assignment.

159:35You know that someone tried to buy him a shot a couple times. He said, "Oh, I could have turned it down. I got the

159:40keys."

159:41>> He hasn't turned them all down.

159:43>> He's kind of loose a couple times.

159:44>> Yeah. You know, you he's he's taken like a a Cosmo of two. Like, you know, he No hard stuff though. Like no hard stuff.

159:53Well, >> no hard stuff. He's vodka. I got >> Well, I can drive a one beer. I'll I'll drink one beer.

159:59>> I'll drink one beer.

160:01Uh, but this is a spot where you would say like, yeah, >> it's not it's not hard alcohol if you put fruit in it.

160:09>> Yeah, butter.

160:13>> Oh, man.

160:13>> But I do think he's going to be involved as a pass catcher by default because he anytime Evans has been off the field,

160:18he's really getting targeted a lot. Even in that game, dude, he came back in the game and still just was like getting

160:25peppered with targets. He thund yards in a game he missed two quarters in.

160:32That's wild, man.

160:34>> But it's all receiving stuff. Like Kaylin Black definitely like longest rush props or even maybe from like uh I he's probably set in like the low30s,

160:42but this defense against running backs.

160:46I don't know if people know this, but they gave up 115 rushing yards to Amarian Hampton. I don't know if there's

160:51people that know Marian Hampton had 100 yards in a game or in the season.

160:56>> Yeah, >> they real bad. This game has like a little bit of on the 49ers side like I could see it being a little bit like the

161:03Jaguars were last night where >> they just like put up a ton of points, but it doesn't become a huge fantasy

161:09game for like any >> one player outside of KD. I'm pretty bullish on KD here. I think he'll he'll >> probably have a great game. But, you

161:17know, when we think about McCaffrey, like what we saw with Toutin last night, we're like Toutin, he gets a touchdown, they doesn't run that efficiently, they

161:26don't need to pass, and then by the end of the game, they're like, "Yeah, well, he's not healthy. What are we going to

161:30We're going to run him for no reason."

161:32Like, I could see it going to Kale Black at the end, assaulted away. That would be pretty It would be truly irrespon He

161:38has moved on from Cosmos to to, you know, he's drinking straight whiskey.

161:43Whiskey neat. Whiskey need. if we see McCaffrey in the fourth quarter.

161:51>> Um, >> but if we if the Raiders do push though, like it it is definitely a spot where he could catch, you know, eight to 10

161:58passes.

161:59>> For sure. For sure. There's there's definitely upside. There's definitely upside. It's just a little bit >> more of a, you know, little lower floor

162:07with how the game could play out. He'll be fine. Like when I say lower floor, I'm like, "Oh, Macaffrey, he only scored

162:12nine points." Like, he'll be fine.

162:14>> But I wrote him up. He's tracking to be kind of one of the more popular DFS plays because he's a little cheaper than

162:19both guys.

162:20>> This is this is the reason I'm talking about this. Yeah.

162:22>> Yeah. I wrote him up as more of a being a tournament play versus uh like a a small field and more cash game play. I

162:30think the other two guys come with more insulation, >> right, >> than he does.

162:34>> I agree. I agree. All right. Packers and Patriots. Um you you mentioned you were curious to see how this plays out with

162:42the way the Patriots are playing defense. They have Christian Gonzalez back. They do double team a lot. Um, and it's very clear uh, you know, that these

162:51two wide receivers are the are the key for the Packers. They haven't seen a ton of double coverage this year though. Uh,

162:58Matthew Golden the last three weeks, 1712, 27% double coverage rates. He was at 37% against the Bears back in week five, 35% against the Vikings in week

163:07one. So, it's not like he's never been double covered, but um it'll be I I agree it'll be interesting to see how

163:12the Patriots play this. What are what are your thoughts?

163:15>> Yeah, this is a game where on surface I went the right up and I was like really excited. We got two guys that want to

163:20push the ball downfield and we still get there also, but I kept finding just like point like pull down points on each

163:26side. Uh you know, for Jordan Love in particular, uh you know, he has had a really nice run of good opponents here.

163:35here and we're we'll get to the the May side in a little bit too about this, but I he's a string of facing pretty bad

163:41defenses. We're getting kind of a a heat ca heat gauge check on both guys, but particularly the way the Patriots play

163:48defense is problematic, I think, for the Packers. Uh against man coverage this year, Jordan Love is 25th in completion rate. He's 18th in yards for pass

163:57attempt. Uh Christian Watson has been awful against man coverage this year.

164:03Uh, and that could be problematic for him.

164:05>> Percentile on open score. He's he's been he's >> that tracks then. It tracks because even last week I wrote it up as a spot for

164:11him because he was going against like a real zonebased single high team and the Patriots some of their top down metrics

164:17don't look as good because they've been missing both cornerbacks at different times. But they're going to have both Carlton Davis and

164:25>> Christian Gonzalez here. It would, I think, make sense structurally for them to have Christian Gonzalez guard Watson more because of just the the size

164:32advantage, but I think he's going to be on both guys anyways. Um, but it I do think it's problematic for Christian

164:38Watson, the more of the two because dude 065 yards per out run against man coverage this year for him, not very good. And if

164:48you could even take one of these guys away in the offense in a game, like it's problematic for this offense because

164:54they can't run. like they just can't run the football and it's also a bad matchup for Tucker Craft. So, I was just like,

165:01"Oo, this seems like it's a like a real pull down spot where it's just like kind of volatile for the Packers." Like very

165:08volatile for them on offense.

165:12>> The one thing I think the Packers have going for them is they will throw.

165:15>> They will throw. They're They have I mean, this is this is a floor like this is they're not supposed to to do this,

165:23you know? I'm supposed to be pissed off when I when I look at their pass rate over expected. It's It's kind of

165:28awesome. They're They have a 5% POE.

165:31That's the second highest in the league.

165:32They're they're in between the Bengals and the Chiefs and pass rate over expected. It's It's pretty wild. And they've been, you know,

165:39earlier in the year. You're like, well, what else are they supposed to do? Well, earlier in the year is when they're

165:43actually running the ball. You know, minus 3% pass would have expected against the Vikings, minus 2% against the Jets. Since then, they've been

165:49positive in every game. 12 26 8 six and 7% in their game since. They've had Josh Jacobs back for a few games now. Josh

165:59Jacobs has not run well, but he's been a good pass catcher. He's operating as a high volume receiver out of the back

166:05field. 37% targets per out run for him.

166:08Uh 1.94 yards per out run. So even from, you know, if you're playing Jacobs, like them throwing is awesome for you because

166:15he's he he is looking very very Genty. I mean, he's been much worse than Genty, actually. Minus 17 rush yards over

166:22expected per game. Like, he's been horrendous. I mean, the offensive line is is awful and no one has run the ball

166:27well >> for the Packers. Um, but, you know, Josh Jacobs not saving the day there. He's just >> No, his after contact stuff is bad, too.

166:36>> Yeah. Yeah. So, you you want them throwing and it feels like they've kind of just made peace with the fact that

166:43they have to throw. You're seeing Jordan Love with a much lower success rate than he had last year. I mean, he's had a

166:50really high success rate, right? But they're kind of offloading some of these like look, I think about this sometimes with the the 49ers and less so with Pury, but

167:00you know, the kind of the Garopolo era 49ers, like some of these offenses that end up having the the uh the uh Seahawks

167:07last year would be an example, too, where you have like a super high success rate in the pass, but the team's running

167:12the ball all the time. And it's like, well, yeah. I mean, if you like pick your spots effectively about when to

167:19pass it and you set the defense up for like, okay, they're not expecting me to pass it. I'm going to pass it now. You

167:24know, favorable looks. I'm going to pass it. Then it's going to juice your success rate for the pass. But like, what about the success rate for the

167:32offense? Cuz you're running the ball a lot and your success rate is going to be lower when you run the ball. You're

167:38going to, you know, fewer explosives as well. Like the the the efficiency of the offense will be lower generally when you

167:44when you're running the ball a ton. So, like the Packers are still way better off. Like Jordan loves success rate falling and then they're they're

167:52throwing a lot more. They're still so much better off that way than if if they were to just slam the ball into the line

167:58and get two yards on first down. You know what I mean? Like >> this is just the way it is. Like yeah,

168:03if they had a great offensive line, they'd be playing differently, but I I think they are going to have to pass a

168:08lot here. And you know, I think that's that's the way to play this matchup because the Patriots are I think going

168:14to be able to to put up points. May might not be super efficient here as we'll get to, but um this is a you know,

168:22this is a game where they're going to have to score. They're road dogs.

168:24>> They can't just lean on the run.

168:26>> Yeah, 100%. Yeah, that's a Yeah, I said they're road dogs. Uh yeah, I I wrote Love Up as kind of just like a more like

168:33like fringe QB1 from a volume based stance.

168:36>> That's how I have them. That's that's like what how I'm handling him because I am expecting the volume to be here for

168:41lots of reasons. It's just I'm expecting it also to come with a lot of volatility. Like there might be a stretch of this game where like they

168:47just don't really do anything and then they they hit enough big plays because they will take their shots too.

168:52>> Well, that's the thing. So, I wrote this up. I was like, you know what, man? I'm going to be honest.

168:57You're if you're playing Watson and you're playing Golden, you're hoping you see Love drop back. He has that extra beat to throw. He looks deep. rips it

169:06and then you're waiting for the camera to pan and hope that your guys on the right side of that target. Like that's

169:13really what this comes down to. And like I can't tell you, but I think the I think that there will be those plays. I

169:21think there I think the Packers will be aggressive enough kind of like we talked about with like Malik Willis and stuff

169:26where like there's >> there's going to be some some volatility the passing game but there should be enough of those drop backs where you're

169:33going to get you know deep shots and Watson and and Golden are just so condensed right now as far as the

169:41downfield targets. I mean Tucker Craft gets his but Tucker Craft has a really shallow AOT of of 5.6. Watson's at 14.2

169:50two. Golden's at 14.8. So, if you're thinking about like, hey, this production is going to come in fits and starts and mostly we're going to care

169:58about it when it's like a 10 15 plus yard target. I mean, that's all going to be Watson and Golden. And it's just sort

170:03of like which one of those how many of those high leverage targets connect into who and that's pretty hard to predict.

170:08So, >> yeah. I I mean, Golden I think just from a the way he plays wide receiver probably I think has a chance to uncover better

170:18and earn targets. Hopefully he catches him.

170:21>> His open score is way better.

170:22>> Yeah. And I'm a little more optimistic on him in this spot. I'm not as bullish as others on just like citing his man

170:28coverage stats. So like I'm fine with citing Christian Watson's man coverage stats against bad teams because he's not getting up against bad teams. But like

170:36so like one of the things that I always one of my pet peeves and I'm guilty of this too by the way like I'm including

170:41myself but I brought this up with you times or two is like when we like hey this this this team runs this coverage

170:47and this is this guy's stats this coverage and it's like yeah well we talked about with golf last week it's like he's awesome versus the blitz like

170:52yeah he's great against the Cardinals blitz right like and that's that's how Matthew Golden's man coverage stats are like Matthew Golden is crushing man

171:00coverage yeah dude they faced the freaking Panthers Lions Cowboys Bears Falcons Jets like cool like you know like >> I would hope

171:09>> I would hope that's why I'm more when I bring up Christian Watson I'm like I don't know man this don't look good

171:16you ain't getting open by none of these guys I don't know so I do think though Golden is uh the archetype of receiver

171:24though that like is a little bit more suited to to earn targets here >> I have the same tier but I I do prefer

171:30Golden as well.

171:31>> Yeah and I don't I don't have Wat I didn't like Barry Watson either. It's just, you know, I'm treating him more as

171:37a uh because he still can catch touchdowns. Like if you're betting, like that's the other thing, too. It's like you can still get a touchdown and be

171:44saved.

171:44>> The yak on Watson can be pretty fun.

171:46>> Yeah.

171:47>> Yeah.

171:48>> Yeah. And so you could The Patriots will still give up big plays because they're aggressive. Like they are aggressive. So

171:53they will give up big plays, too.

171:56>> Yep.

171:57>> Uh >> and both of these guys, I say both guys do get into the slot a little bit too.

172:02And that is also beneficial here.

172:05>> That Oh, yeah. That's a great point. The the slot, that's the place to attack the Patriots, but I mean, they both get in

172:12the slot a little.

172:13>> Yeah.

172:14>> But not a ton.

172:15>> Just a little.

172:16>> Just a little.

172:17>> But you only need as a receiver for fantasy football, we only need a couple plays. Really?

172:21>> That's true. That's true.

172:23>> Really? That's why we never like leaned into the hard like cornerback versus wide receiver stuff heavy because I was like, dude, at receiver, you only need

172:29one, man. Give me one. Yeah. more about the whole coverage. You know, where's the weak spot? I mean, could cuz coverage is weak link as well, like like

172:36offensive line.

172:38>> Yep.

172:38>> You can have the best corner ever. If the other two corners stink, you're going to be in trouble.

172:43>> Um, you mentioned this not a great match up for Craft. Any other thoughts on him?

172:47>> No, I mean, same thing. He's probably more of just like a you're still playing him as a as a tight end, won a

172:51touchdown, but I mean both of these teams have been awesome against tight ends all year and they've faced some good ones too on both sides. So,

172:59Patriots been really tough on tight ends. Packers even more so. But, uh, also Craft is another one of these guys.

173:04When we talk about those opponents, he's his man coverage stuff's been real bad, too.

173:11>> Yeah. Um, >> 0.35 yards per out run against man coverage. I mean, only been targeted on 10% of his routes. And that tracks for

173:20some tight ends, right? Like you're more zone based, you know? Yeah. You're getting targeted more in the middle of the field.

173:25>> He He's a yak guy. He's not really like the target earning for him has been okay.

173:30>> Um but but really he's been more about >> Yeah.

173:33>> He started to look better in terms of phys physical uh ability lately too.

173:39Looks like he's getting back to that.

173:41>> Yeah.

173:42>> Which makes sense which, you know, should be expected, >> right? Got in the end zone the last couple weeks, which is which is nice.

173:48Any other thoughts on on Josh Jacobs? I I have him as kind of the low end RB1 >> kind of range

173:55on the targets. Yep. Yep. Just bet on volume and touchdown equity.

173:59>> Yep. Um All right. Patriots side.

174:03Uh do we have Matt Collins for this game?

174:08>> I meant to look up their thing and I totally forgot about it. Their p uh their report cuz uh Hunter Henry also

174:15practiced today.

174:16>> Oh, >> and I'm assuming they want to see how he responds.

174:21Um I have it up here right now. Hunter Henry questionable, but Mac was limited, limited, limited, so I assume he's going

174:27to be a go.

174:29>> Okay. I wrote it up like he'll be a go.

174:30I mean, I think >> Yeah, me too.

174:31>> One of one of Hollands or Henry is like kind of important, I think, for this matchup >> because May really likes that big body,

174:40you know, reliable possession guy. And uh >> you're not going to have AJ Brown here.

174:46So, you know, to the extent that he can fill that role, you don't have that.

174:49Henry helps fill that role. Hollands helps fill that role, too. I mean, Holland's um 2.30 yards per out run, >> you know.

174:57>> Listen, this is the This is my Demarcus Robinson argument. This is my same thing.

175:02>> Yeah. Yeah, that's fair.

175:03>> So, I can't let you have >> That's the best way. That's the best push back. We've got to find common

175:09ground here.

175:09>> No, you're right. You're right. I'll concede the Robinson point. If you're saying he's their M Collins, I'll give you that. I'll give you that. Honestly

175:17though, Matt Collins I think is more important here if there's no Henry just because like we're running out of guys on the off.

175:22>> Exactly.

175:23>> We're running out of guys. Like >> been kind of good. He's been very Hunter Henryes. I mean you don't have the same

175:29level of confidence in him, but he's been solid >> and they said the matchup is I think really bad for him.

175:35>> Yeah.

175:36Um >> but we're running out of guys. We're running out of pass catchers.

175:41>> We are. We are. It's crazy though. like May, you know, he keeps getting there.

175:46Like, >> yeah, >> uh 88th percentile. I mean, I know it's against the Dolphins, but 88th percentile in EPA per play, uh against

175:54the Dolphins. He was 83rd percentile two weeks ago against the Bears. The Bears are a good defense like that. That was I

176:00mean, I know there was uh the Raandre checkdown, Hail Mary sort of whatever that was touchdown. Um he had some some

176:07kind of like down two scores, garbage-ish time production as well. But like, you know, he was, it's not purely the schedule, although the schedule did

176:18lighten up a lot uh after the early part of the season, but still, I mean, May over the last since week four, May has

176:26uh 17.4 EPA per game, which is the highest in the league. So, it's been really, really good. And it's, you know,

176:33Brown has come back for a second, got hurt again. Uh Henry's been banged up.

176:39Hollands has been out. Uh Deario Douglas is kind of the number one guy. I wrote this up though is like Douglas has a

176:47little bit of the the deep threat slot thing going on. And um when I wrote this game up, I was like, you know, the way

176:54this looks to me >> is that they're probably going to have to like check the ball down a bunch because the Packers have been really

177:02good in coverage.

177:04>> Uh not a great pass rush. May is really good. like if you give him enough time, he can buy a little extra time, he can

177:11scramble and then he can he can get the ball out. Um you know whether that's to uh the running back or you know find

177:22find an outlet receiver along the sideline like whatever. That's where I think like having Hollands would be really nice.

177:28>> But I mean with Henderson out I could see Raandre catching a bunch of balls in this game. uh he's been a big checkdown

177:37guy for them and you know Henderson is is going to be out again. So he he's coming off backto-back 17% target

177:43shares. He has a 36% targets per out run when May moves off his first read. So I think we could be looking at you know

177:53again again with the Packers performing quite well in coverage uh just forcing a checkdown. I I like Raandre here as a as

178:00a kind of a volume based receiving option actually. And then obviously he he'll have the back field mostly to himself as a runner.

178:05>> Yeah. Yeah. I I like Raandre here too of running the offense. And that's how I approached May too. It wasn't so much

178:11like look at the schedule stuff. It was it was more of how he's beating that schedule and how it aligns with the

178:17Packers. Like he's been really crushing his ceiling again. And this is why he was able to get over on the Bears too,

178:24who are the better of the defenses that he's faced over the past month. is all on the downfield stuff. Like he's been

178:30absolutely cooking like the the May deep ball experience like that we had last year has been back.

178:35>> Yeah, it was back. Yeah.

178:36>> Like I mean throws 10 or more yards downfield the past five weeks. He's 36 of 53, second in the league. He's 15

178:43yards for pass attempt throws 10 touchdowns, one interception. He has seven touchdowns on throws 20 or more yards downfield uh the past five weeks.

178:52Packers uh fourth in completion rate allowed on throws 10 or more yards downfield. only two passing touchdowns.

178:57They have seven interceptions on the throws. They've allowed one touchdown on throw 20 or more yards down field. And that's where I would was pulling down on

179:04treating May not as a top five guy, but more as like a mid-range QB1 because you still get the rushing outs too with him

179:10too. That's the other great thing about May is >> that's why I am treating him still as as like a locked in

179:16>> kind of highend quarterback one because I think he's going to run. and you get the rushing with him, but I was like the

179:21way he's getting his ceiling is on these vertical throws and like those might be removed from the the the game plan here

179:29and we're just out of guys at this point. Like we're just you can only take away so many players from an offense to

179:35where it finally catches up to you and it's just like man like we're we're down AJ Brown. We're already down Dos. If

179:41we're down Hunter Hunter, getting Hunter Henry back I think helps this match up.

179:44If he plays, even though it's a tough match up for tight ends, it gives you a more reliable intermediate target in

179:50>> I do like if Holland is back here, if Holland doesn't play, then I would >> I think he is, but

179:55>> I would lower May a little, but I think having Holland's back, like if you if you're telling me, I know it's it's kind

180:02of crazy given that they, you know, spent a ton of money on Romeo Dobs, trade a first for AJ Brown, and I'm now

180:08going to make the case that like they're actually fine because they have Matt Collins, Deario Douglas, and then Chisum and and Williams. But I think they are

180:15fine with those guys. Like they had uh no Hollands last week. You know, Chisum Chisum's been like a fine enough kind of

180:23possession receiver and then Williams struggles to draw targets, but like he he is running down. He's going to play like even

180:34>> he'll have a 40% round participation, 50% round participation, something like that. And he's going to run a bunch of deep routes. the thing like you look at

180:40um you know the way Bryce Young looked last week against this defense just awful um and it's like okay they move

180:47him off his first read he doesn't have the mobility at this point with the with the ankle >> right >> and then they don't have the protection

180:56and the Patriots offensive line is not good but it's not a total disaster and May is so much more mobile right now

181:03than Young and that's the way he's been playing he's got a 323 second time to throw only Caleb Williams has a has a longer

181:11time to throw. They're kind of playing similar similar styles. Um May has a 14% deep pass rate, 9.8 A dot, and he's been

181:19really efficient when working off his his first read. So, I still believe in May here to buy some time, figure out

181:27where to go with the ball. That's going to include some rushing. That's going to include some dump offs to Raandre. I do

181:32think it includes some deep passes though. Like there's they're not going to be the the way we talk about JJ McCarthy like drops back ball out and

181:39it's 15 plus yards downfield. I I don't see a lot of that here. But I think you are going to see May, you know, by the

181:47he's going to move up into the pocket diagonally. He's going to move over and then rip it downfield and we're, you

181:51know, maybe those don't connect, but I think we'll get some of that. I think he's he's better positioned to challenge this offense deep or this sorry this

181:57defense deep um you know than than most the other quarterbacks they've played.

182:03I mean they haven't had that hard of a schedule by the way.

182:06>> No. No. But the good quarterbacks they faced, they've been really good against Till too.

182:09>> That's true.

182:10>> That's the you know we always when we do the the context stuff it's like Yeah.

182:14Like Well, the good quarterbacks they faced, they also were good, you know, but they were good against uh you know Dak and Golf.

182:19>> Very good against Dak. Yeah.

182:21>> Yeah. Yeah.

182:23Um, but yeah, I still have May rank pretty high. Just >> I still have I think I have QB7. Like, you know, that's definitely probably

182:30lower than you have him, but uh I wrote too. I was like, you know, not you don't have to stream for him. Like, it's not a

182:36>> Well, I So, I have a a Dynasty League with May and Allen and >> I think Yeah, I would I think I would

182:43too, >> but maybe that's more of an Allen concern than >> Yeah. And there's also like Deion Dawkins didn't practice today and they

182:52still have one more day to get him back on the field, but like they might be down two linemen too on Monday night.

182:57So, >> o but yeah, like Mahomes, >> but they're also the team, >> we're not like breaking down that game, but it's funny where we talk about how

183:04teams have to change to play the Vikings and it's like the Bills are the one team that don't like all the stuff that

183:10>> teams have to do to the Vikings, it's like well the Bills already do all this stuff. This is like their base offense.

183:16>> They don't play 11 personnel. Is that bearish though?

183:18>> I don't know. I don't know.

183:20>> If you're acting like you're always playing the Vikings, is that a good thing?

183:22>> I don't know. But that's like It's funny though cuz we talk about like, oh, this team is a scrap 11 personnel. Play more

183:27tight ends. It's like, well, that's all the [ __ ] that the >> that's all they do. Although I don't know. Playing more Daltton Concaid is

183:33not the way to beat uh Brian Flores, I don't think. But we'll see.

183:37>> No, no, no. He won't be. He won't be.

183:39But, you know, but they they play Jackson Haw and they already play.

183:42>> Jackson Halls is playing this week.

183:44Jackson Haw first touchdown.

183:45>> But he already plays. you already.

183:48>> That's what's funny. It's like uh I was like, "Oh, yeah." I was like, "They're gonna like this is the one team that

183:53just is like, "Oh, we're this is what we we do all this stuff anyways."

183:56>> Yeah. No, that's a good point.

183:58>> You want us to be run heavy and just like play heavy personnel? Like, cool.

184:02>> Cool. We have the best quarterback in the league and that's what we do at baseline.

184:09>> Love it.

184:10>> Yeah. All right. We uh we did it.

184:12>> Yeah, we did it. That was pretty good for us.

184:13>> That was pretty good. I know. We uh you know, part of me was like, if we can't be a little quicker than normal with

184:19this many backup quarterbacks playing, then we're then we're doomed. So, I'm glad to see we we carved about 20 minutes off the pod. Um all all it takes

184:28is five backups.

184:34>> All right, man. Uh tell the people what you got going on at Sharp Football Analysis.

184:37>> Yeah, Sharp Football wrote up all these games. If somehow we didn't touch on something that you were curious on, uh I

184:43definitely wrote about it. Uh we definitely, you know, like like Pat said, support the work that we're doing.

184:48As a reminder, too, all the prime time games I should let people know those are all free, too. Those are always on

184:53they're not pay they're never paywalled, which I never bring up, but you can go read those.

184:58>> Nice. Um yeah, check out the everything we got going on at Legendary Upside, including the walkthrough and then the uh the island writeups I'll be working

185:06on. Uh by the time you you are actually hearing this, they'll be done. Uh I haven't I haven't written them yet, but

185:11uh I'm about to write them. But yeah, check check all that stuff out. Got a rankings waiverwire article from from Steph Miller, which is absolutely

185:19excellent. Uh hope you guys are checking that out. Hope you guys are doing great in your leagues. We'll see you back here

185:24for the week 10 angles and upside double digits next week. Uh good luck in week nine.

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