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Think Javonte Williams falls under the same umbrella as a Kyren Williams in round 3. The home-run level explosiveness is limited (outside top 20 RBs in % of 20 and 30 yard runs even last year in bounce back season) as is the receiving work (35th among RBs in target share, worse when ceedee was active). Williams also tailed off in the back half of last year (4.4% explosive rate, 4.3 YPC), for what that’s worth. He had no competition for most of last year but there’s a decent chance his lacking...

Arguably the biggest misconception in fantasy football is that drafting players for “floor” is a legitimate strategy. I wrote an article about why this is just a poor understanding of what really matters in fantasy, using 3rd round Kyren Williams as example. Link in replies⬇️

The 3 RBs last year with 5 or more targets 15+ yards downfield, per @​FantasyPtsData: Bijan Robinson (5) De'Von Achane (6) And... Rhamondre Stevenson (6) Stevenson also led all RBs in receiving yards (92), air yards (126), and TDs (2) on these 15+ air yard throws.

The 3 RBs last year with 5 or more targets 15+ yards downfield, per @​FantasyPtsData: Bijan Robinson (5) De'Von Achane (6) And... Rhamondre Stevenson (6) Stevenson also led all RBs in receiving yards (92), air yards (126), and TDs (2) on these 15+ air yard throws.

The 3 RBs last year with 5 or more targets 15+ yards downfield, per @​FantasyPtsData: Bijan Robinson (5) De'Von Achane (6) And... Rhamondre Stevenson (6) Stevenson also led all RBs in receiving yards (92), air yards (126), and TDs (2) on these 15+ air yard throws.

Josh Downs, among 74 WRs who have run 450+ routes out of 11 personnel in the past 2 years, ranks top 10 in both TPRR and 1D/RR when in 11p. The other WRs across the NFL who were top 10 in both: Puka Nacua Ja'Marr Chase Amon-Ra St. Brown AJ Brown Drake London Mike Evans

Josh Downs, among 74 WRs who have run 450+ routes out of 11 personnel in the past 2 years, ranks top 10 in both TPRR and 1D/RR when in 11p. The other WRs across the NFL who were top 10 in both: Puka Nacua Ja'Marr Chase Amon-Ra St. Brown AJ Brown Drake London Mike Evans

Josh Downs, among 74 WRs who have run 450+ routes out of 11 personnel in the past 2 years, ranks top 10 in both TPRR and 1D/RR when in 11p. The other WRs across the NFL who were top 10 in both: Puka Nacua Ja'Marr Chase Amon-Ra St. Brown AJ Brown Drake London Mike Evans

Arguably the biggest misconception in fantasy football is that drafting players for “floor” is a legitimate strategy. I wrote an article about why this is just a poor understanding of what really matters in fantasy, using 3rd round Kyren Williams as example. Link in replies⬇️

Arguably the biggest misconception in fantasy football is that drafting players for “floor” is a legitimate strategy. I wrote an article about why this is just a poor understanding of what really matters in fantasy, using 3rd round Kyren Williams as example. Link in replies⬇️

Chris Godwin in 2024, before coming off an ankle dislocation AND suffering a fibula fracture in 2025, per @​FantasyPtsData: + 0.28 targets per route run (10th/103 WRs) + 2.62 yards per route run (7th) + 26.1% target share (8th) + 82.3 receiving YPG (6th) + 19.7 PPR FP/G (2nd)

Been getting a good bit of R18 Vidal (8%) and very little Keaton (less than 1%). Seems pretty clear that ~180 pound Keaton Mitchell is not going to have a massive/clear 1A role should Hampton go down, Vidal profiles much more clearly for that (and showed he could handle it quite well last year). Vidal impressed when given volume last year (over 100 scrimmage yards in ALL 5 gms w/ 15+ touches last year, 4.8 YPC in these games) and was clearly trusted in pass-pro even when Hampton returned (pla...

Something that seems to always not be included in the Travis Hunter discussion is the triple-injury contingent value he has. Sure he’s not going to open the season projecting for a near full time route share. But we’re getting plenty of confirmation that he’s still going to play a good bit of offense (allowing for spikes), and if any of the Jags perceived top 3 he’s likely immediately in line for a much larger share of the routes. We start drafting clear RB2s even earlier then Hunter’s ADP pr...

Raiders are on team I expect to comfortably outperform expectation offensively (implied PPG rank of 29th). Should be a massive scheme improvement from the disaster that was this 2025 offense, # 1 overall pick QB, Bowers healthy, and additions to the OL (mainly Linderbaum). Comfortable projecting LV much closer to a league-average offense rather than a bottom-tier one.

In 2026, I'm doubling down on my single worst stance of the 2025 season: Fading Jonathan Taylor Link in replies for the article on why I'm doing so, and offering up an RB going after him that I think is just the better version of what you want JT to be⬇️

Caleb Williams value still is pretty puzzling to me, as I think he should align much more closely with the Dak/Herbert tier than the Maye/Daniels/Burrow tier (currently QB6 w/ late round 6 ADP). I don't see the path to Caleb outperforming ADP without a pretty major leap as a passer. He's mobile, but not the hyper-mobile type that has top ~3 QB upside on the back of his rushing ability (outside top 10 in rush att/gm and YPG last year). And as a passer, despite a big year 2 improvement overall,...

Caleb Williams value still is pretty puzzling to me, as I think he should align much more closely with the Dak/Herbert tier than the Maye/Daniels/Burrow tier (currently QB6 w/ late round 6 ADP). I don't see the path to Caleb outperforming ADP without a pretty major leap as a passer. He's mobile, but not the hyper-mobile type that has top ~3 QB upside on the back of his rushing ability (outside top 10 in rush att/gm and YPG last year). And as a passer, despite a big year 2 improvement overall,...

Caleb Williams value still is pretty puzzling to me, as I think he should align much more closely with the Dak/Herbert tier than the Maye/Daniels/Burrow tier (currently QB6 w/ late round 6 ADP). I don't see the path to Caleb outperforming ADP without a pretty major leap as a passer. He's mobile, but not the hyper-mobile type that has top ~3 QB upside on the back of his rushing ability (outside top 10 in rush att/gm and YPG last year). And as a passer, despite a big year 2 improvement overall,...

Caleb Williams value still is pretty puzzling to me, as I think he should align much more closely with the Dak/Herbert tier than the Maye/Daniels/Burrow tier (currently QB6 w/ late round 6 ADP). I don't see the path to Caleb outperforming ADP without a pretty major leap as a passer. He's mobile, but not the hyper-mobile type that has top ~3 QB upside on the back of his rushing ability (outside top 10 in rush att/gm and YPG last year). And as a passer, despite a big year 2 improvement overall,...

Caleb Williams value still is pretty puzzling to me, as I think he should align much more closely with the Dak/Herbert tier than the Maye/Daniels/Burrow tier (currently QB6 w/ late round 6 ADP). I don't see the path to Caleb outperforming ADP without a pretty major leap as a passer. He's mobile, but not the hyper-mobile type that has top ~3 QB upside on the back of his rushing ability (outside top 10 in rush att/gm and YPG last year). And as a passer, despite a big year 2 improvement overall,...

*Highly talented and explosive WR massively outperforms his expected FP/G (volume) in multiple games as a rookie* "Fools Gold"

Being able to scoop Burden and Loveland at the 4/5 turn is so nasty Gotten it 3 times in last few days, seems to be where the prices are headed (would be great with Waddle now firmly out of that range). (screenshots from by best ball exposure tool⬇️)

Being able to scoop Burden and Loveland at the 4/5 turn is so nasty Gotten it 3 times in last few days, seems to be where the prices are headed (would be great with Waddle now firmly out of that range). (screenshots from by best ball exposure tool⬇️)

In 2026, I'm doubling down on my single worst stance of the 2025 season: Fading Jonathan Taylor Link in replies for the article on why I'm doing so, and offering up an RB going after him that I think is just the better version of what you want JT to be⬇️

In 2026, I'm doubling down on my single worst stance of the 2025 season: Fading Jonathan Taylor Link in replies for the article on why I'm doing so, and offering up an RB going after him that I think is just the better version of what you want JT to be⬇️

Early in the offseason (March 14th), I wrote about why I though Tuten was such a high-upside pick and why the Rodriguez addition should NOT stop you from being in at a round 5 price. Some of the specific ADP talking points might be slightly dated now, but the larger points about the types of RBs we want to be targeting in fantasy football are evergreen (ie: Projected-lead RBs in good offenses that are explosive with pass-catching upside, aka Tuten). I made some updates to that article today o...

In 2026, I'm doubling down on my single worst stance of the 2025 season: Fading Jonathan Taylor Link in replies for the article on why I'm doing so, and offering up an RB going after him that I think is just the better version of what you want JT to be⬇️

Another thing here that has me more bearish than most on the Chargers. Both ADP (1 of 4 teams with 7 players in top 15 rds, only team with top 24 overall pick RB and another inside top 12 rounds) and the public sentiment are treating the Chargers like they’re a top ~5 projecting offense. In terms of implied PPG based off preseason lines, the Chargers are expected to score just the 14th most PPG this year. Obviously more pieces to the puzzle than points per game, but the offensive strength is...

Another thing here that has me more bearish than most on the Chargers. Both ADP (1 of 4 teams with 7 players in top 15 rds, only team with top 24 overall pick RB and another inside top 12 rounds) and the public sentiment are treating the Chargers like they’re a top ~5 projecting offense. In terms of implied PPG based off preseason lines, the Chargers are expected to score just the 14th most PPG this year. Obviously more pieces to the puzzle than points per game, but the offensive strength is...

Another thing here that has me more bearish than most on the Chargers. Both ADP (1 of 4 teams with 7 players in top 15 rds, only team with top 24 overall pick RB and another inside top 12 rounds) and the public sentiment are treating the Chargers like they’re a top ~5 projecting offense. In terms of implied PPG based off preseason lines, the Chargers are expected to score just the 14th most PPG this year. Obviously more pieces to the puzzle than points per game, but the offensive strength is...

In 2026, I'm doubling down on my single worst stance of the 2025 season: Fading Jonathan Taylor Link in replies for the article on why I'm doing so, and offering up an RB going after him that I think is just the better version of what you want JT to be⬇️

Size is NOT the only determinant of goal line work, yet many like to operate as though this is just automatically the case (for Tuten v. Rodriguez discussions). Bhayshul Tuten probably showed the most as a short-yardage runner in year 1 compared to any other aspect of his game, yet the anti-Tuten crowd declares C-Rod the definitive goal line back simply because he’s a bit bigger. Tuten is not necessarily small either, as 5’9” 210 lbs is quite dense. And it should not go overlooked how Rodrigu...

More on the short-yardage runs for Tuten vs. Rodriguez: Among 52 RBs with min. 20 short-yardage attempts (3 or less yds to go) per @​FantasyPtsData, Tuten was: + 7th in success rate (76.2%) + 2nd in stuffed run rate (23.8%) + 1st in % of runs converted into TD or 1D (90.5%) This was despite being left with very little room to run on these attempts, DEAD LAST in yards before contact/attempt on short-yardage runs (0.29). For reference, C-Rod was: + 30th in success rate (65.4%) + 19th in stuffed...

Been getting a good bit of Round 18 Jack Bech shares (11% exposure). Seems like a much better fit in the condensed Kubiak system where he’ll likely be used in the F role (was miscast out wide as an X receiver for roughly 80% of routes last year). Bech was solid as a separator in year 1 (>60th percentile vs. zone and press per Reception Perception), and is just a year removed from being a round 2 pick. In what’s probably the least established WR room in the NFL, I like taking stabs on Bech to...

IMO, it’s fair to put some of (if not a lot of) the blame for Emeka Egbuka’s drop-off in the middle of the season on injury (to both himself and Baker). The more troubling part to me was that multiple months removed from his injury (which he didn’t miss any time for btw), he was running as the WR4 on his own team in route share in the most important games of the season. Obviously the route issue won’t happen this year with Evans gone, but do think there’s heavy concern he doesn’t stand out as...

IMO, it’s fair to put some of (if not a lot of) the blame for Emeka Egbuka’s drop-off in the middle of the season on injury (to both himself and Baker). The more troubling part to me was that multiple months removed from his injury (which he didn’t miss any time for btw), he was running as the WR4 on his own team in route share in the most important games of the season. Obviously the route issue won’t happen this year with Evans gone, but do think there’s heavy concern he doesn’t stand out as...

IMO, it’s fair to put some of (if not a lot of) the blame for Emeka Egbuka’s drop-off in the middle of the season on injury (to both himself and Baker). The more troubling part to me was that multiple months removed from his injury (which he didn’t miss any time for btw), he was running as the WR4 on his own team in route share in the most important games of the season. Obviously the route issue won’t happen this year with Evans gone, but do think there’s heavy concern he doesn’t stand out as...

In the 3 games in the quoted (Wk1, 2, 7), we saw Skattebo and Tracy splitting touches basically evenly (36 to 30), so a peak of RB19 finish for Tracy (other two outsde top 30) hardly seems like this bullish of a point (Tracy averaged 7.4 FP/G in these weeks) I can’t really get there on Tyrone Tracy, feels like a classic case of what do you win when you win. For one, Skattebo almost assuredly takes on a larger role than he had in the 1st 2 games of his career (probably closer to Wk7, out-touch...

In the 3 games in the quoted (Wk1, 2, 7), we saw Skattebo and Tracy splitting touches basically evenly (36 to 30), so a peak of RB19 finish for Tracy (other two outsde top 30) hardly seems like this bullish of a point (Tracy averaged 7.4 FP/G in these weeks) I can’t really get there on Tyrone Tracy, feels like a classic case of what do you win when you win. For one, Skattebo almost assuredly takes on a larger role than he had in the 1st 2 games of his career (probably closer to Wk7, out-touch...

Not trying to quote dunk but this brings up some of my main issues with the Jadarian Price debate. For one, pattern matching is just a poor way to evaluate IMO. Every situation is different and this highlights clear outliers rather than the norm (7 examples since 2018). On that note, 4 out of 7 of these guys didn’t come near Price’s capital, so they’re pretty irrelevant here. And most of these backfields had much more established competition than 2026 Seattle does. Not to mention, I would arg...