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Post from SleeperNFL
Lloyd lacks track record and faces committee risk and tough Vikings defense.
Lloyd has catapulted up fantasy rankings since Josh Jacobs was placed on the Commissioner's Exempt List, but faces a tough divisional matchup at the Vikings in Week 1. Minnesota allowed the tenth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs last season. Green Bay added Kaleb Johnson and has Chris Brooks available to take meaningful snaps, with a report indicating the Packers could deploy a committee to start the season, creating a legitimate threat to Lloyd's workload. Lloyd has played only one regular-season game (six carries for 15 yards) and hasn't played an NFL regular-season snap since 2024, leaving no strong track record to trust in Week 1.
Lloyd best held as volatile FLEX; limited trade market value.
MarShawn Lloyd profiles best as a volatile FLEX option in Week 1 and likely doesn't have a robust trade market. Gamers are best served by holding him to see how things shake out after a few weeks rather than attempting to trade him.
Lloyd's dynamic college production could spark a breakout if he gets early touches.
MarShawn Lloyd was a top-100 pick (88th overall) because he possesses dynamic home-run ability. At USC in his final collegiate campaign, Lloyd produced 816 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns on 115 carries (7.1 yards per carry) in 11 games, plus 18 targets and 13 receptions on 190 routes for 232 receiving yards and 1.22 yards per route run. While injuries have limited his NFL availability (one game since 2024 draft), a hot start could push him to the top of the Packers' running back committee.
Lloyd may be benched in passing situations due to Brooks' pass-blocking role.
MarShawn Lloyd could be game-script dependent and limited in passing situations because Chris Brooks is a trusted pass-blocking back, potentially keeping Lloyd off the field when the Packers need pass protection. The Packers are 1.5-point underdogs against the Vikings, which could further limit Lloyd's opportunities.
Lloyd faces Vikings' elite run defense and blitz-heavy scheme in Week 1.
MarShawn Lloyd faces a brutal Week 1 matchup against the Vikings, who allowed only 18.4 half-PPR points per game to running backs last season and held the position to 3.90 yards per carry, 4.73 yards per target, 3.9 targets per game (tied for 31st), 3.1 receptions per game, and 18.6 receiving yards per game. Brian Flores' Vikings led the NFL in blitz rate at 44.7% (league average 27.2%), and Minnesota's 46% blitz rate since 2023 is the highest in the NFL at 5.2% above second place, which could keep Lloyd off the field in passing situations.
Lloyd offers value in committee with upside for goal-line work and carries.
Lloyd offers plenty of appeal as a cost-effective back at $4,800 DraftKings/$4,900 FanDuel. While the Packers stated they plan to use a committee, that doesn't mean Lloyd can't show as the most effective back and get the most carries with goal line preference. Unlike teams like Seattle who use a committee by design, the Packers have been dedicated to a true three-down back since the arrival of Josh Jacobs. Lloyd is built to handle early-down work, is powerful enough for goal line work and can handle checkdowns.
Lloyd is a high-upside, low-owned value play at 4,800.
Marshawn Lloyd is a strong value play at 4,800 with only 4% projected ownership. While there are concerns about a split backfield with Caleb Johnson and potential pass-protection issues against the Vikings' blitz-heavy defense, Lloyd was an elite per-touch prospect in college with high yards-after-contact metrics. He is the best cheap running back option on the slate, especially if the Packers lean into the run.
Lloyd positioned as low-end RB2 if he assumes Josh Jacobs role in Week 1.
Lloyd, who has been plagued by injuries and only carried the ball six times in 2024, is being watched closely to see if he can settle into the Josh Jacobs role in Week 1. Dwain McFarland has called him "a lock in 12-team leagues with two flex options" as a low-end RB2. Fantasy projections show median 11.9 PPR points with ceiling of 19.5.
Marshawn Lloyd's Week 1 start depends on draft position; consider benching to see backfield split.
Kendall Valenzuela is on the fence about starting Marshawn Lloyd in Week 1, noting the decision depends on draft capital. He suggests that if Lloyd was drafted in the sixth or seventh round, it may be difficult to start him over Ashton Jeanty. Valenzuela recommends benching Lloyd if possible to see how the backfield split develops.
Lloyd gets workhorse role with Jacobs out; Minnesota's weak run defense offers Week 1 upside.
Lloyd is primed to enter Week 1 as the Packers' workhorse back with Josh Jacobs on the commissioner-exempt list. His college tape is strong: in his final two seasons, he ranked 20th and 16th in yards after contact per attempt, third and 18th in breakaway rate, and fourth and 15th in elusive rating (per PFF, minimum 100 carries). Minnesota's run defense lost parts and added Caleb Banks, Domonique Orange, and Jake Golday this offseason. Derek Brown notes Minnesota ranked 16th in explosive run rate and 15th in yards after contact per attempt last year while giving up the sixth-highest rushing success rate and fourth-lowest stuff rate, suggesting Lloyd can exploit the matchup.
Post from SleeperNFL
Lloyd owners should be nervous due to Josh Jacobs' status
Ian Hartitz suggests that fantasy managers who own MarShawn Lloyd should be nervous given the ongoing uncertainty surrounding Josh Jacobs' status and potential suspension.
Marshawn Lloyd is the cheapest viable RB with significant workload upside.
Marshawn Lloyd is the cheapest viable running back on the slate at $4,800, with the potential to secure a 65% rush share and 12-14% target share.
Lloyd starts for injured Packers but faces snap-share with Brooks; high-end RB3 ranking.
With Josh Jacobs on the Commissioner's Exempt List, MarShawn Lloyd is expected to operate as Green Bay's lead back when the Packers visit the Vikings on Sunday. Lloyd has been plagued by injuries throughout his college career and the early part of his NFL career, but he's healthy now and reportedly had a terrific training camp. However, the more experienced Chris Brooks is going to get a good number of running back snaps for the Packers, too, and Packers head coach Matt LaFleur probably isn't letting the oft-injured Lloyd handle a Derrick Henry-esque workload. The source regards Lloyd as a high-end RB3.
Lloyd gets first shot as Packers starter with most explosive playmaking ability.
Lloyd will get the first opportunity to replace Josh Jacobs as the Packers' starter in Week 1 against the Vikings. While Brian Flores' defense always puts up a good fight, this is a much different defensive line than the Vikings had last year and the impact could be felt in their run defense. Even though a committee approach is likely for Green Bay's RBs, Lloyd is the most explosive playmaker of the group.
Lloyd's role is capped by Jacobs news but remains Week 1 starter vs. Vikings.
Lloyd's long-term upside is now capped with Josh Jacobs getting favorable news this week; however, Lloyd still enters Week 1 as the presumed lynchpin in the Green Bay backfield against the Vikings, who have chaotic blitz packages but gettable run defense.
Sit; expect to be scripted out vs Vikings' aggressive gap-mugging scheme
Sit in Week 1. the source is significantly lower on Lloyd than industry consensus. Expected to get scripted out of the game and not receive passing-down work. Tough matchup against Vikings' aggressive Brian Flores-led defense that constantly mugs the A gaps; if Packers' interior offensive line holds up, Lloyd could exploit the aggressive scheme for explosive plays, but if beaten up by the double mug A gap look, expect a quiet day.
Lloyd gets lead-back opportunity; Packers shifting to zone-run scheme for his style.
RB MarShawn Lloyd, a former third-round pick by the Packers in 2024, is now the apparent lead back after Josh Jacobs was placed on the Commissioner's Exempt list; despite having played only 10 regular-season snaps in his three-year NFL career and suffering from unfortunate injuries early in his career, Lloyd now has an opportunity at redemption. His different rushing style will invite changes to the offensive scheme, with the Packers leaning into the outside/mid zone scheme more heavily, transitioning back to what the offense looked like in earlier LaFleur years.
GPP-only tournament play in MIN vs. GB.
Listed as GPP Only pick for MIN vs. GB matchup, indicating a tournament-specific play rather than a core cash-game recommendation.
Lloyd positioned as Packers workhorse with Jacobs out; faces vulnerable Vikings run defense.
Derek Brown views MarShawn Lloyd as primed to enter Week 1 as the Packers' workhorse back with Josh Jacobs on the commissioner-exempt list. Lloyd showed strong collegiate production in his final two seasons: 20th and 16th in yards after contact per attempt, 3rd and 18th in breakaway rate, and 4th and 15th in elusive rating (per PFF, minimum 100 carries). The matchup is favorable: Minnesota's run defense lost some parts and added Caleb Banks, Domonique Orange, and Jake Golday this offseason. Last year, Minnesota ranked 16th in explosive run rate, 15th in yards before contact per attempt, gave up the sixth-highest rushing success rate, and allowed the fourth-lowest stuff rate.
MarShawn Lloyd is a risky Week 1 play for Packers.
Packers running back is considered a risky play for Week 1, suggesting caution for fantasy managers considering him in their lineups.
Lloyd projects as RB27 in Week 1 amid committee approach.
Lloyd is projected as RB27 in Week 1 specifically, reflecting his limited role in the committee approach and short-term window before Jacobs returns from suspension.
Lloyd is a clear sell at 120th pick; Week 1 performance could crater his value.
Lloyd would be closer to the 120th pick if drafts were held today, as a short-term RB2/FLEX candidate. He's a very clear sell, as confidence around his value could tank with an opening clunker in Week 1. It doesn't appear he'll be in the mix for starts for very long either.
Lloyd likely starts Week 1 but faces committee approach with Johnson and Brooks.
Packers OC Adam Stenavich said the team will use a committee approach in Week 1 against the Vikings' unique defense. Lloyd likely gets the start but newly-acquired Kaleb Johnson should get carries in an offense built for his style. Lloyd's role is expected to be short-term only, as he won't be in the mix for starts for very long once Jacobs returns.
Lloyd's preseason snap share and role suggest starting value despite limited career carries.
Lloyd presents two sides: one tells you he's the RB1 on a good offense with very little competition for carries; the other brings up that he has only six carries in two career years. The combination of limited experience with the Minnesota defense makes him more of an average flex play for Week 1 as his long-term role is figured out. However, Smyth still thinks if you drafted him before filling out your bench, he's a worthy start. In Green Bay's preseason, Lloyd was getting 100% of the snaps with the starters, was included in the passing game, and with only Kaleb Johnson as true competition for early down work, Smyth expects Lloyd to have that important role.
Lloyd elevated to Packers RB1 with Jacobs sidelined by legal proceedings.
With Josh Jacobs progressing through judicial proceedings related to a misdemeanor battery and criminal damage to property charge, MarShawn Lloyd is positioned as the Packers' RB1 in the coming weeks; fantasy players can deploy Lloyd as an RB2 in Week 1 against the Vikings.
Lloyd's pass protection will be crucial for Love against Vikings blitzes.
The source identifies Lloyd as a key contributor to keeping Jordan Love upright against the Vikings' blitz-heavy defense; Lloyd's performance in pass protection will be critical for the Packers' offensive line effort in Week 1.
Lloyd needed for pass protection against Vikings' exotic blitz scheme.
Lloyd's role in Week 1 against the Vikings extends beyond traditional running back duties; the source explicitly notes that the Packers will need a strong effort from Lloyd to help keep Jordan Love on his feet through pass protection, indicating he will be relied upon for blitz pickup and protection responsibilities against Flores' aggressive defensive scheme.
Lloyd projects far better than RB38 ADP at RB22 with Jacobs out and Vikings run defense weakened.
Lloyd is a low-end RB2 in Week 1 and should be in starting lineups in most 12-team leagues with 2 RBs and one flex spot; he is a lock in 12-team leagues with two flex options. With Josh Jacobs on the Commissioner's Exempt List, Lloyd is the favorite to lead the Packers backfield. Though highly unproven with only six career attempts, he resides in a potent offense committed to balance. The Packers project the No. 11 team total (24.0) in a close game (0.5 spread). The Vikings were a stout run defense in 2025 but lost Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave in the interior, with Caleb Banks currently slotted as a backup. Lloyd settled as RB38 in drafts but projects far better in Week 1, landing in the same tier as Bucky Irving and Cam Skattebo and ahead of Jaylen Warren, Bhayshul Tuten, Jordan Mason, and J.K. Dobbins. He is RB22 in consensus ranks.