Josh Allen fantasy football insight from Hayden Winks - PPR Rankings

Allen has finished as the QB1 (24.6 points per game), QB3 (23.7), QB1 (25.8), and QB1 (26.4) in recent seasons. The last two years were his worst fantasy years in a long time, and he still separated from the mid and low-end fantasy QB1s. In terms of overall finishes using fantasy points over replacement per game in half PPR, Allen has been 30th, 18th, 30th, and 19th. It'll be a tier worse than that in full PPR, but the Round 2-3 baseline value is hard to argue with. Enter D.J. Moore and a hopefully healthier Dalton Kincaid for 2026. The Bills pass-catching groups since the Stefon Diggs departure have been underwhelming, and the offense has been more run heavy and less explosive because of it. If forced to guess if the Bills offense will be better or worse this year, I'd guess better. There is a case for worse with a new OL coach and the OL getting another year older, but a notable decline in any way would be a surprise. Where things get trickiest is evaluating the opportunity cost of Allen in redraft leagues, particularly in full PPR. This year's QB2-QB6 offer strong passing numbers with a great rushing ceiling, yet come 2-4 rounds cheaper. Then the borderline QB1 range goes as deep as I can remember, possibly to QB20 if the Jordan Love to Malik Willis group hits their ceilings. There's a case to be made to double dip in the Herbert, Stafford, Nix, Murray, etc. tier this year in redraft.