From the video
Houston could just spread the field with Nico Marv and Null largely abandon their toothless run game... plays where CJ Strad has Nico Collins on the field. He's top five in EPA per play... Nico Collins having to play Pure X like he's always done means that he's going to probably still be in that 18 19 point per game range... can he ascend to the Aman and all of these guys of the world probably not in this role
STACKED’s take
Collins capped at 18–19 PPG in pure X role with Harrison Jr. added
Collins is returning from injury to a Texans offense spreading the field with him, Marvin Harrison Jr., and others while abandoning the run game. Ron Stewart cites Nate Ty's stat from Football 301 that in plays where CJ Stroud has Collins on the field, he's top five in EPA per play. With Harrison Jr. added, Collins remains a pure X receiver running static downfield routes where he can win against corners; Stewart projects Collins will stay in the 18–19 PPG range (17–19 PPG historically) rather than ascending to 20+ PPG like JSN, because Harrison Jr. will handle intermediate/short routes and motion work. Collins is top-five in EPA per play when on field with Stroud and can still be effective deep, but his ceiling is capped by the new role distribution.
Nico CollinsWR · HOUPlayer page — value, ADP, projections, and every insight