The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast on Matthew Stafford

PodcastThe Show: Alarming Stats, Wide Receiver Hit Rates, and MoreCaptured June 18, 2026

From the episode

Matthew Stafford at a 17.7% touchdown rate... 16 quarterbacks since 2014 with a touchdown rate in their previous season above 7%... They've underperformed versus expectation by 1.7 points per game... I would almost guarantee you that when you do your home league drafts... this August Stafford is going to be a fringe top 10 guy, if not a top 10 guy. And that's when you know that you should probably be avoiding him.

Mentioned at 0:43 – 0:44

STACKED’s take

Negative signalProjection

Stafford's 17.7% touchdown rate is concerning because 16 QBs since 2014 with prior-season TD rates above 7% underperformed expectations by 1.7 PPR points per game the following year. The analyst expects Stafford to be drafted as a fringe top-10 QB in home leagues despite this regression pattern, making him a fade.