The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast

Burden, like Kalief Raymond, has averaged up targets below eight yards and benefits from the Bears' short-area passing attack against the Jets. With Caleb Williams out, the Bears are expected to employ a similar approach as week three, which matches up well against New York's weakness on short throws (12th worst in completion rate on 0-10 air yard passes).

Raymond has a 23% target share in the Bears offense and a respectable 68% route share, serving as a nice outlet in the short and intermediate area of the field through three weeks. With Caleb Williams out again, the Bears should employ a similar approach as week three. Against the Jets, who give up the fifth lowest average depth of target and rank 12th worst in completion rate on 0-10 air yard throws, Raymond's short-area role matches up well. The Jets are second best in completion rate allowed on 10+ air yard passes, suggesting the Bears will continue targeting Raymond underneath.

Allen is leading his team in targets per route run for a third straight year. Against Washington, who rank third in adjusted points allowed to wide receivers per game, seventh highest in target share allowed, and among only three teams giving up higher catch rate over expected, Allen has a favorable matchup. Washington has given up the most points to perimeter wide receivers by a wide margin, and Allen runs 63% of his routes on the perimeter, positioning him well in this offense without Alec Pierce.

Davis is a deep play this week for the exact same reasons as Braylon Allen—the Bears' weak run defense. The backfield may get split up more than expected, but Davis has not been a bad running back throughout his career, making him a potential value play if the Falcons distribute carries.

Allen is the obvious play in the running back tier this week against the Bears. Chicago ranks fifth best in adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs, sixth worst in expected rushing yards per rush allowed, and has given up higher than average success rate to running backs, making this a premium matchup for Allen.

Kamara is the only Saints running back worth using this week despite Atlanta's strong run defense (best in success rate allowed). However, Atlanta ranks eighth best in adjusted target share allowed to running backs, and Kamara has doubled up Kendry Miller and CJ Donaldson in routes run over the last two weeks. With Atlanta facing the highest pass rate over expected this season, Kamara has receiving upside in this matchup.

Robinson has been really good this year, seeing about 30% of the Falcons' rush attempts; his Week 4 matchup against the Saints is favorable, as New Orleans ranks dead last in defensive rushing success rate and has been a strong matchup for running backs.

Jones is Zachariason's preferred quarterback streamer for Week 4, facing Washington's elite-level weak secondary; Washington is allowing almost 27 adjusted points per game to opposing quarterbacks (second worst), is average in pressure rate, and third worst in pass defense success rate; the Colts have a favorable total over 25 points, making this an attractive matchup.

Darnold is a floor play rather than a ceiling play in Week 4 against the Chargers; the Chargers are bottom 6th in success rate allowed through the air and middle of the road in adjusted points allowed to quarterbacks (13th in fantasy points per drop back allowed), but Seattle's near 25-point implied team total provides some confidence, though Zachariason prefers other quarterback options this week.

Schultz has a favorable Week 4 matchup against Dallas in a potential high-scoring game; despite underperforming last week in a good matchup, Schultz has actually seen a higher targets per route run rate when Nico Collins has been on the field since the start of 2025, and Dallas has given up the fourth most adjusted points to tight ends this year.

Wilson is positioned to benefit from Arizona's best-in-league pressure rate matchup against the Giants this week; with an average depth of target of 9.5 yards (shorter than Harrison Jr.'s 17.7), Wilson should see consistent opportunities in a game where the Cardinals have extended time to throw.

Despite a slow start to the season, Harrison Jr. has a favorable Week 4 matchup against the Giants, who rank third worst in points per game allowed to perimeter receivers and bottom four in percentage of points allowed to slot receivers; the Giants have the second worst pressure rate in the league, and Arizona has the best pressure rate matchup this week, which could benefit Harrison Jr. given his 17.7-yard average depth of target versus Michael Wilson's 9.5 yards.

Alave has a strong Week 4 matchup against Atlanta, which has faced the highest pass rate over expected to start the season and has struggled more against perimeter receivers; JJ Zachariason expects Alave to "really eat in this matchup."

Alvin Kamara (referred to as 'Vele' in the transcript, likely a transcription error for Kamara or another Saints receiver) has played a little bit more in the slot, but there could be enough volume in the Saints' passing attack against Atlanta to make him usable.

Chris Alave could really eat in the matchup against Atlanta. The Saints are top half of the league in pass rate over expected in neutral situations and have run at the second fastest pace in the league. Atlanta has faced the highest pass rate over expected to start the season and has struggled more against the perimeter, making Alave a strong candidate to benefit from the volume.

Justin Jefferson's status for this weekend is currently unknown, which creates uncertainty for Minnesota's passing game in week four against Miami.

Jordan Addison can be considered in week four regardless of Justin Jefferson's status. Minnesota has a 24.5-point total against Miami, and while the Dolphins are a middle-of-the-road matchup for wide receivers by adjusted fantasy points allowed, they've allowed the highest catch rate over expected and no team allows higher yards per route run to opposing wide receivers. This means Addison can be usable off just a handful of plays.

Woody Marks has appeal in week four against Dallas despite his snap share dropping to 35% in week three. Dallas is bottom 10 in rush success rate allowed and ranks as the fifth best matchup in adjusted rushing yards allowed to running backs. Early in the season, Marks has better yards per rush, better success rate, and better yards after contact per attempt than David Montgomery.

RJ Harvey has sneaky appeal in week four against the 49ers. San Francisco has allowed the second highest adjusted target share to running backs; Harvey is at the 18th highest route share of any running back this season and has seen the fifth highest target share at 19% on the season. JJ Zachariason worries about seeing more Tyler Bidet if the 49ers get off to a big lead, but still likes Harvey's appeal.

Nico Collins is expected to return this week, which will provide a nice boost to the Houston passing game and make CJ Stroud a more attractive sleeper option against Dallas.

Houston gets Dallas this week in a dome game with a 25-point implied team total. The Cowboys rank sixth best matchup for quarterbacks by adjusted fantasy points allowed and are below average in pressure rate defensively. Nico Collins is expected to return, which will boost the passing game. JJ Zachariason identifies Stroud as a good sleeper in this matchup.

Carolina on Sunday has a 50.5-point total; Carolina is top five in pass rate over expected this year, and Detroit is the 11th fastest paced team, creating a lot of plays in this matchup. JJ Zachariason likes Bryce Young in this tier, though the injury to Jalen Coker makes things less appealing.

Bryce Young was disappointing in week three but is in a good spot in week four against the Lions; Detroit ranks 28th in pass defense success rates and only four teams allow a higher fantasy points per drop back rate; the game has a 50.5 point total; Carolina is a top five team in pass rate over expected and Detroit is the 11th fastest paced team while Carolina is first, suggesting plenty of plays in this matchup.

Keaton Mitchell was a good sleeper call in week three.

AJ Barner was usable in week three, one of JJ Zachariason's successful sleeper picks.

Geno Smith smashed in week three, one of JJ Zachariason's successful sleeper picks.

Jordan Love was fine for fantasy purposes in week three.

Kenyon Sadiq had a monster 23.5 PPR point performance in week three, one of JJ Zachariason's successful sleeper picks.

Xavier Worthy didn't come together in week three as a sleeper pick.

Dalton Schultz wasn't great in week three as a sleeper pick.

Emmitt Johnson didn't get the game script that JJ Zachariason wanted in week three, failing to deliver on the sleeper pick.

Kalief Raymond didn't get the game script that JJ Zachariason wanted in week three, failing to deliver on the sleeper pick.

Kyler Murray lost Justin Jefferson and scored only about 11 points in week three, disappointing in a sleeper context.

When contact is made after the line of scrimmage, Jadarian Price's performance flips significantly, suggesting his struggles are specific to short-yardage situations and his efficiency improves in space.

Chase Brown ranks worst in success rate on rushes when hit at or behind the line of scrimmage, indicating severe struggles with contact balance and power in short-yardage situations.

Jadarian Price is second worst in success rate on rushes when hit at or behind the line of scrimmage (ahead of only Chase Brown) and ranks dead last in rushing yards per attempt on those types of runs, indicating severe struggles with contact balance and power in short-yardage situations.

Javante Williams ranks in the bottom five in yards after contact per attempt when hit at or behind the line of scrimmage and is sixth worst in success rate on those rushes, indicating struggles with contact balance and power in short-yardage situations.

Aaron Jones ranks in the bottom five in yards after contact per attempt when hit at or behind the line of scrimmage and is fourth worst in success rate on those rushes, indicating struggles with contact balance and power in short-yardage situations.

DeAndre Swift ranks in the bottom five in yards after contact per attempt when hit at or behind the line of scrimmage, indicating struggles with contact balance and power in short-yardage situations.

Derrick Henry ranks in the bottom five in yards after contact per attempt when hit at or behind the line of scrimmage and has been bad in success rate on those rushes, indicating struggles with contact balance and power in short-yardage situations.