Becoming a Best Ball Bro: It's Already Over?
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 11 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 2, 2026
Published
Wed, September 2, 2026
49
Player insights
45
Players mentioned
Topics
Keenan AllenChris GodwinMarShawn LloydA.J. BrownAshton JeantyBaker MayfieldBrock BowersBrock PurdyBucky IrvingChris RodriguezChuba HubbardDe'Von AchaneDrake MayeEmmett Johnson
Player analysis
Player insights
A.J. Brown
PositiveValue33:07
Zachariason notes that A.J. Brown's value increased significantly after his move to the Patriots, jumping from a mid-third-round pick to a mid-second-round pick.
Insight pageAshton Jeanty
NegativeInjury26:40
Zachariason discusses the uncertainty surrounding Ashton Jenty's injury, noting that while his range of outcomes widened to include bad scenarios, his high-ceiling outcomes remained, making him a better draft value in the ninth round than reaching for his backup.
Insight pageBaker Mayfield
PositiveUsage35:38
Baker Mayfield is Zachariason's most-rostered quarterback in the Millie at 16%, primarily because he is drafted as part of a stack rather than as an individual asset.
Insight pageBrock Bowers
PositiveValue54:18
JJ Zachariason holds 11% exposure to Brock Bowers, viewing him as the elite tight end option who could go 'nuclear' this season. He prefers Bowers over McBride despite the opportunity cost.
Insight pageBrock Purdy
PositiveValue39:14
Zachariason believes Brock Purdy was undervalued throughout the summer, though he notes that stacking him is more complex due to the variety of available partners like Kittle, Evans, and McCaffrey.
Insight pageBucky Irving
NegativeValue48:55
JJ Zachariason has 5% exposure to Bucky Irving, noting that while he has bought into Irving more over the last month, he still considers Kenny Gainwell a better value.
Insight pageChris Godwin
PositiveValue41:01
JJ Zachariason holds 17% exposure to Chris Godwin, citing good CLV as he drafted him at an average of 82 overall compared to his current 69 ADP. Zachariason also notes that Godwin benefits from his overall positive outlook on the Buccaneers' offense.
Insight pagePositiveValue41:07
Zachariason holds 17% exposure to Chris Godwin, noting that he provided good CLV (Closing Line Value) throughout the drafting process.
Insight pageChris Rodriguez
NegativeValue14:34
JJ Zachariason considers Chris Rodriguez a better investment for best ball than season-long due to his lack of receiving upside, though he remains a viable late-round dart throw in both formats.
Insight pageChuba Hubbard
NegativeValue9:52
Chuba Hubbard is currently being drafted in round 11, a significant discount compared to Jonathan Brooks, despite the expectation that Hubbard will be healthy for Week 1.
Insight pageDe'Von Achane
NegativeValue48:28
JJ Zachariason maintains a 5% exposure to Devon Achane, which he describes as a 'blanket' rather than a full fade. He notes that he only drafts Achane when he falls to the later parts of the second round.
Insight pageDrake Maye
NegativeValue37:37
Zachariason has 14% exposure to Drake Maye, noting that while he expects some regression, Maye frequently fell into his lap in the sixth-to-seventh-round range.
Insight pageEmmett Johnson
PositiveBreakout15:22
JJ Zachariason regrets not being more aggressive on Emmett Johnson, noting he is a prospect he liked and believes will be the RB2, wishing he had 6-7% exposure instead of 4-5%.
Insight pageEvan Engram
PositiveRole45:18
JJ Zachariason views the release of Justin Jolie as a significant positive for Evan Engram, positioning him to be the primary pass-catcher in the Jaguars' offense under a new coordinator.
Insight pageJ.K. Dobbins
NegativeValue66:59
JJ Zachariason compares Chris Rodriguez to J.K. Dobbins, noting they offer a similar experience regarding target share and early-down usage, making Rodriguez an arbitrage play.
Insight pageJalen Hurts
NegativeValue23:28
Jalen Hurts had unfavorable CLV in JJ Zachariason's early July drafts compared to his current market ADP.
Insight pageJames Cook
PositiveProjection44:36
JJ Zachariason holds 12% exposure to James Cook, preferring him over Jonathan Taylor in the 109 range. Zachariason is specifically betting on a boost in Cook's receiving production this season.
Insight pageJayden Daniels
NegativeValue23:28
JJ Zachariason noted that Jaden Daniels had unfavorable CLV in his early July drafts, as he was taken at pick 67, which is earlier than his current market price.
Insight pageJaylen Waddle
PositiveValue60:50
JJ Zachariason holds 12% exposure to Jalen Waddle, noting positive CLV as he drafted him at an average of 44 overall compared to his 34 ADP.
Insight pageJoe Burrow
NegativeValue25:33
Zachariason notes that drafting Joe Burrow in the third round after securing Ja'Marr Chase in the first is a poor strategy that likely leads to a dead team, whereas getting Burrow past ADP in the sixth round is a value.
Insight pageJonah Coleman
PositiveUsage42:45
JJ Zachariason has 17% exposure to Jonah Coleman, noting that while much of this was drafted earlier in the offseason, he remains a high-priority target for his rosters.
Insight pageJonathon Brooks
PositiveValue9:52
JJ Zachariason remains high on Jonathan Brooks, noting he was a target in his draft guide; while the market has reacted violently by pushing him to round 6, Zachariason believes he has a strong positive range of outcomes.
Insight pageJordan Addison
PositiveValue34:14
Zachariason recalls waiting to draft Jordan Addison last year until after his suspension news dropped, which allowed him to acquire the player at a lower ADP.
Insight pageJordan Mason
PositiveValue67:47
JJ Zachariason notes that the market has become sharper in elevating Jordan Mason's value, making him a player he is more open to drafting in both season-long and best ball formats.
Insight pageJosh Jacobs
NegativeUsage8:11
Josh Jacobs' status is uncertain due to his placement on the commissioner's exempt list, creating significant variance and shifting backfield expectations in Dallas.
Insight pageJustin Jefferson
NegativeBust51:02
JJ Zachariason is concerned about his 5% exposure to Justin Jefferson, citing risk regarding the Vikings' offensive environment and quarterback situation compared to CeeDee Lamb.
Insight pageKaelon Black
NegativeUsage62:55
JJ Zachariason holds 4% exposure to Kalon Black as part of a broader strategy to roster handcuffs without being over-leveraged on any single injury situation.
Insight pageKeenan Allen
PositiveValue33:26
Zachariason highlights Keenan Allen as a player who gained significant CLV (Closing Line Value) after signing, noting he was draftable in the 20th round prior to the move.
Insight pagePositiveValue40:28
Keenan Allen is Zachariason's most-rostered wide receiver and top player overall in the Millie at 21% exposure.
Insight pagePositiveValue40:47
JJ Zachariason holds 21% exposure to Keenan Allen, noting significant closing line value (CLV) as he drafted him at an average pick of 219 overall compared to his current ADP of 153. Zachariason notes that if Allen finishes as a WR3, it will be a highly successful outcome for his portfolio.
Insight pageKenneth Gainwell
PositiveValue43:56
JJ Zachariason has 13% exposure to Kenny Gainwell, valuing him as a pass-catching floor play in full PPR formats. Zachariason prefers Gainwell's value over Bucky Irving's in the current draft landscape.
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
PositiveValue20:11
JJ Zachariason remains bullish on Kenneth Walker, noting he is overweight on the player at 11% exposure but regrets not being closer to 13% due to shifting draft position availability throughout the summer.
Insight pageMalik Davis
PositiveDepth Chart8:17
Following the release of Deuce Vaughn, Malik Davis is expected to step into the RB2 role for the Dallas Cowboys.
Insight pageMalik Nabers
PositiveValue28:26
Zachariason admits he was underweight on Malik Nabers due to concerns about a potential PUP stint, which he now considers a mistake as Nabers has risen to a second-round pick.
Insight pageMalik Willis
PositiveUsage38:06
Zachariason has 14% exposure to Malik Willis, valuing him as an easy click for QB2 or QB3 spots because his rushing ability makes him stack-agnostic.
Insight pageMarShawn Lloyd
PositiveValue27:46
JJ Zachariason notes that drafters are heavily overweight on Marshawn Lloyd as a hedge against the uncertainty surrounding Josh Jacobs.
Insight pagePositiveValue60:04
JJ Zachariason holds 10% exposure to Marshawn Lloyd, noting excellent CLV as he drafted him at an average pick of 191, while his ADP has since risen to 110.
Insight pageMatthew Stafford
NegativeUsage24:09
Zachariason criticizes drafting Matthew Stafford in the seventh round without stacking him with key targets like Devante Adams or the available tight ends, labeling it irrational best ball behavior.
Insight pageMichael Mayer
PositiveValue45:34
JJ Zachariason holds 13% exposure to Michael Mayer, identifying him as one of the best values in best ball. He cites the Raiders' lack of pass-catching depth, the expected usage of 12 personnel, and contingent upside should Brock Bowers miss time.
Insight pageMike Washington Jr.
NegativeValue26:40
Zachariason argues that drafting Mike Washington in the fifth or seventh round based on Ashton Jenty's injury uncertainty was poor game theory, as Washington's ceiling outcomes did not justify those prices.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveValue41:57
JJ Zachariason maintains 14% exposure to Parker Washington, having drafted him at an average of 60th overall before his ADP rose to 49. Zachariason continues to force the issue by drafting him because he believes the current ADP remains reasonable despite the player's meteoric rise.
Insight pagePat Bryant
PositiveValue14:08
Pat Bryant has been a gradual riser in ADP but remains a valuable and draftable player in best ball formats.
Insight pageRashod Bateman
PositiveRole14:55
JJ Zachariason expects Rashad Bateman to serve as the WR2 for the Ravens to start the season.
Insight pageRhamondre Stevenson
PositiveDepth Chart67:47
JJ Zachariason emphasizes that Rhamondre Stevenson is clearly the RB1 in New England and that the market was slow to react to this reality.
Insight pageRicky Pearsall
NegativeInjury20:50
Ricky Pearsall is confirmed to be out for the season, which negatively impacts teams that drafted him earlier in the offseason.
Insight pageStefon Diggs
PositiveValue17:10
Stefon Diggs provided excellent closing line value (CLV) for drafters who secured him in rounds 12-13 earlier in the offseason, as he is now consistently drafted in rounds 7-8.
Insight pageTank Bigsby
NegativeValue63:30
JJ Zachariason holds 6% exposure to Tank Bigsby, noting that while he is a valuable handcuff if Saquon Barkley were to miss time, he avoids being overweight on him to manage volatility.
Insight pageTre Harris
PositiveValue40:54
Trey Harris is Zachariason's second-highest rostered wide receiver at 19%, serving as a cheap piece to gain exposure to the Chargers offense.
Insight pageTrey McBride
NegativeBust53:33
JJ Zachariason is fading Trey McBride (3% exposure), citing concerns over regression in routes run, a drop in efficiency with Marvin Harrison Jr. on the field, and a likely decrease in touchdown production compared to his historic 2023 season.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. How do you turn 16 games, injury reports, team notes, betting lines, and matchup trends into one clear weekend preview?
0:08ChatGPT work can help. Give it the goal, plus real inputs like notes, files, data, and project plans.
0:14It can help turn them into an analysis, tracker, deck outline, or workflow you can keep shaping.
0:19You stay in control reviewing the work and choosing the final result.
0:22Put ChatGPT to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects.
0:26Get started at ChatGPT.com by selecting Work Mode. Available on Plus and Pro Plans.
0:30I love my phone, but not my carrier. What do I do?
0:34Well, there are 250 reasons to join T-Mobile. Like what?
0:37You can keep your phone and your number and T-Mobile helps pay it off.
0:41Up to $800 per line. So I wouldn't have to buy a new phone?
0:45Yep. Plus, your plan price stays the same for five years on experience plans.
0:50Nice. Find your reason at T-Mobile.com. Be a virtual pre-bid card.
0:53Card typically takes 15 days after rebate. Submission price guarantee on talk text and 5G data.
0:58Exclusions like taxes and fees apply. JJ, this past weekend, I had my long time high school fantasy football draft in New Jersey.
1:05On the way there from LAX, we get grounded in Chicago.
1:08I have to spend a night overnight in a hotel.
1:11Finally get there late. On the way back, my plane gets delayed overnight again.
1:15I have to stay at an airport hotel in Newark.
1:18But, it's all worth it. Because as we know, banners fly forever.
1:22I'm JJ, and over the last couple of years, I've been doing everything I can to be a best ball bro.
1:28And last season, things finally fell into place. I got 40th in the DraftKings Millie contest, taking home $20,000.
1:34Maybe I became a best ball bro, but I'm still looking to learn more about this game.
1:39And I still want others to come on this ride with me.
1:43So even if you consider me a best ball bro, this could be your year.
1:48This could be the year that you officially become a best ball bro.
1:52This episode is sponsored by DraftKings. We've partnered up with DraftKings again this year for best ball.
1:57And we've got a can't miss offer on their biggest best ball contest ever.
2:01$20 million in total prizes. It's draft one, get one.
2:04Draft your team once, no weekly lineup management, and your top scorers start automatically each week, all season long.
2:10Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and sign up with promo code LATEROUND.
2:14Enter a lineup in the $20 million best ball contest for $25 and get a bonus ticket for a second entry.
2:20Two shots at the title. Draft one, get one, only on DraftKings.
2:24The crown is yours. Welcome into another episode of Becoming a Best Ball Bro, the season finale of season three.
2:30I'm JJ Zacharyarysen and joined as always by Rich Rebar.
2:33Rich, how's it going, buddy? JJ, I was thinking of you this past weekend at our fantasy football draft, not during the
2:40draft portion, but during my first round of golf, because you always use the golf analogy when you talk about regression.
2:46And I am horrific. I have what they deemed to have a 36 handicap.
2:50And on the third hole of the first round, I get a true par on a par five, which was the third handicapped hole on the course.
2:58So I scored a double eagle. And I'll tell you what, JJ, I'm not going out tomorrow and scoring any double.
3:05Exactly. Exactly. There's some nice, some nice regression for you.
3:08I'm hoping that I don't get any regression in the best ball streets this year, even though it's probably inevitable.
3:14We are going to go over some of the lessons that I learned slash kind of reinforced, I'd say is a better
3:21word this season while drafting 150 milli drafts. Cause I am officially finished with those.
3:25And then this is on top of drafting a ton of others.
3:29I think that I'll close out around 350 to 400 drafts this year.
3:33Best ball. Some, some, you know, a lot of them fast.
3:36I did all fast drafts for the milli. Some of them slow, but you know, I just want to break it all
3:43down so that we can, we can talk through what happened this summer and what's to come.
3:48You know, last year I hit well in the final got 40th as, as you know, we've talked about.
3:54And then on top of that, I had a good advance rate at 48 of the one 50 advanced when, you know,
4:00you're hoping for 25, which is, which is what expectation would say.
4:04Cause two out of 12 are advancing. So one out of six are advancing.
4:08So one out of six would equate to the 25 out of 150.
4:12So we'll see what happens this year. I feel okay.
4:15I feel like I felt more confident last year because there were some players that I had been really heavy on that were rising in terms of CLV.
4:24And then, you know, I had last year, some of the big hits that I had within my best ball portfolio were
4:31like Kyle, man, guy had a lot of Rico doubt old, like an absurd amount of Rico doubt, which really helped those
4:37spiked weeks to kind of get me into the playoffs.
4:40And obviously once you're in the playoffs, you're just hoping that that one of those teams can really hit.
4:46Yeah. We've had a late surge of some, some weird shifting, uh, at the running back position, obviously with whatever is going to happen with Josh Jacobs.
4:54And now, uh, to obviously a lower extent, somebody like Jane blue getting cut and now Malik Davis stepping into what assumes
5:01to be the RB two role there in Dallas.
5:04But I feel like when you talk about things like the Mononga, I doubt all of last year, that was just you
5:10attacking an ambiguous backfield that, you know, had some success this year.
5:14I feel like a lot of that has just, it's just been kind of random.
5:19And I feel like there's a lot of things that are just teetering on the knife's edge right now that it's hard
5:25to predict which way it's going to go in, in either direction.
5:29So it does feel like there's a lot of variance.
5:32That's going to come rushing our way. Once the ball gets kicked next week.
5:36And this is completely anecdotal, but it did feel like the market was reacting in a much stronger way this year than
5:43it has in years past that I've experienced. You know, this is season three of the show.
5:48And I don't remember seeing some of like the very harsh reactions.
5:52Like I said, to some of these like backfields, especially like I'm looking at Jonathan Brooks versus Chuba Hubbard and Jonathan Brooks ended up.
5:59It was essentially based off of him being healthy and Chuba Hubbard having an injury where he's supposed to be back in week one.
6:06Right. And Brooks ended up going like he goes in round six consistently now and Chuba Hubbard, you get in round 11 consistently now.
6:14Straight up. I'm taking Jonathan Brooks. I've been on Jonathan Brooks all summer.
6:18Like he was part of the draft guide as a player to target right away.
6:22But in season long, that gap is so much smaller.
6:25It's not even remotely. It's like basically back to back for those guys.
6:29Whereas in best ball, you're seeing this very, very harsh reaction to it.
6:33Right. And I think that's part of why this season was a little bit more difficult for me is that it's hard
6:40to really balance how far you should lean into a storyline like that.
6:44You know, you could point to a Dejan Stribbling as an example of this.
6:48Like how far do you go with that? Mike Washington with his preseason and obviously that blip of time where we didn't
6:55know how long Ash and Gentry was going to be out.
6:58There are all these and there are all these like stories and it's been kind of hard for me and hopefully for
7:05everybody else, too, because I don't want to be on an island here to kind of like understand how.
7:10Much we should push these players if they're not part of our portfolio already.
7:15Like that's been a that was probably the most difficult part of this draft season for me.
7:20Yeah. And I think to the at the end of it, it's kind of like what we've been always talking about, sometimes
7:27reacting to your room and in this case, in a macro sense, reacting to the market because you're you're right.
7:33That is the way the market is treated. Brooks Chuba is a bit extreme, right?
7:37Yeah. And to be clear, to be clear, I think that Brooks could absolutely live up to that.
7:43I'm not even like faulting the market per se.
7:45I'm just saying that it's a much it's just a much stronger stance than I think the market has ever taken before and something like that.
7:53Correct. We all know Brooks is talent, right? And his profile coming in.
7:57So, yeah, there's no discounting the positive range of outcomes where he just absolutely smashes.
8:02Yeah. It's just to your point how yeah, how violent the market has reacted to to some of these things.
8:08And honestly, it makes the game more fun when it does things like this.
8:12It makes it it makes it. But like another really good example of this is Jacoby Lane.
8:17I if Jacoby Lane smashes this year, I'm probably a little bit screwed because I did not go heavy lane in round
8:2420 when he was going that late. Like some guys rise very gradually, right?
8:28Some players like Pat Bryant, for instance, was a very gradual riser.
8:32And he's still to a point, in my opinion, where he's very valuable and draftable and best ball.
8:37But, you know, despite the steam with Pat Bryant, he didn't rise to a point where it was just so unbelievably difficult to acquire him.
8:45Whereas when you're looking at someone like Jacoby Lane, it is difficult to to grab him, you know, in that that round
8:5213 type area because there's a lot of ambiguity there.
8:55And I still think Rashad Bateman is going to play the wide receiver to rule to start the season.
9:00And, you know, Jacoby Lane, who I thought was an OK prospect, not an elite.
9:05So I'm weighing all these factors in and I'm like round 13 like that, like he's in a in a run first offense more than likely.
9:13He's probably not going to be the wide receiver to right away.
9:17There's going to be some time. And I do think that he's one of those players that probably looks a little bit better in training camp.
9:24I'm not saying definitively that, like, this is not going to work out for Jacoby Lane.
9:29I'm saying that it became hard when you see a jump go from round 20 to round 13 seemingly overnight, whereas some
9:36of the gradual, you know, buildups is a lot easier to attack those players.
9:40And something you've you've brought up in the last couple of episodes with regards to the CLV, which is your first main point today is does it hurt?
9:49How much does it hurt? Right. To pain you in a multi month draft like the Millie to eat some of that rise in CLV.
9:56Right. You know, do we just swallow it and just be OK with it and just trust that the market is making
10:03proper macro decisions or do we just believe in what was set?
10:07A couple of weeks ago and not buy into this rush of CLV value.
10:11And yeah, it's it's challenging, man. Yeah. I mean, I think that that's been probably my biggest takeaway this year and just
10:18thinking about CLV on a deeper level than I did previously.
10:21And for the record, everyone CLV being closing line value.
10:24So we're talking about players where they're drafted today versus or where you drafted them versus where they're drafted today.
10:30Right. That's essentially what we're saying. So like, you know, Stefan Diggs, I was drafting him a lot in round 12 and
10:37round 13, and now he's a round seven, eight type player.
10:40And so obviously that's good closing line value because you got a four or five round discount on Stefan Diggs earlier this
10:47offseason than where he's going right now. So the teams that are drafting Diggs back then have an eighth round player that they got in the 12th round.
10:55That would imply that those teams are better on paper than than the other teams that are drafting now.
11:01The problem with that thinking in the way that I've there's two reasons.
11:05Number one, there are so many iterations with how things can go down in a single best ball lineup and single fantasy
11:12football season that to assume that the highest CLV teams are going to advance, I think is a little bit foolish given
11:18the variance that is involved in fantasy football. If the guy that you get is the guy that is going to be good, then that's it.
11:26That's all that matters. Right. Like if it doesn't matter, right?
11:30It doesn't matter where Kyle Pitts was drafted last year.
11:33He smashed when it mattered. Right. Exactly. If you reached for Kyle Pitts last year by two rounds and then you got
11:39him in that what week 15 game or week 16 game, whatever it was, and you had him there or Derrick Henry, right?
11:46Like you were able to advance like my lineup had Derrick Henry into the final and then he was the one that you needed to smash.
11:54So like there's that side of it that I think is very, very important to wrap your head around.
12:00But then look, I'm not saying that CLV is bad.
12:03CLV is good. I've never done full blown research on it because I don't have the data to do so.
12:09I would imagine that if you know Mike Leone out there who does work for ETR establish the run.
12:15I think he's done this some of this research and has shown that, you know, better CLV value like teams and ADP
12:22value does help you in the best ball game like you want to have those values.
12:27So I'm not dismissing it. Right. But the other piece of this with CLV is the fact that when you're getting that
12:33CLV, it's usually going to come earlier in the offseason.
12:36Right. Because we're talking about closing line value, meaning the end of the offseason, the end of we're ready for the season
12:43to start when you're drafting in May and June, you have incomplete information.
12:47And so, yes, I'm getting really good Stefan Diggs teams.
12:50But guess what? I was drafting some Ricky Pearsall, you know, and we don't have that.
12:55I mean, now we know that that Ricky Pearsall is not playing this year.
12:59So the team, if I had a Pearsall digs team back in May or June or something where I got digs in
13:06round 13 and Pearsall in round nine or 10, then all of a sudden the team that drafts digs in round eight
13:12actually is at an advantage to that other team more than likely.
13:16You know, I'm not doing I'm just doing the quick math in my head about how that would look, but I would
13:23imagine that the team with digs without that dead player on the team is at some sort of an advantage.
13:29So I'm trying to not overstate CLV. It's fun to look at, you know, I went did the live stream, my final milli draft.
13:36And at the end of it, I pulled up a roster that I could I could pull up right now if you
13:43guys are curious, but it's a roster of my best CLV team this year.
13:47And I look at it and I'm like, yeah, this team is sick.
13:51I love it. And I wish that all my teams looked like that.
13:55But realistically, the chance that this is the team that wins me, you know, $2 million, I think is pretty slim, right?
14:02Or does even the best of any of my team.
14:05So I'll just read you the team. I just pulled it up.
14:08Okay. It's Jaden Daniels and Jalen hurts. Actually, both of them had had unfavorable CLVs because I got Jaden Daniels at 67 overall at the six seven.
14:17So he goes later than that. But then yeah, for audio listeners, rich, the six seven motion that no one does anymore, but we're dads.
14:24So at running back, I got Chris McCaffrey, Amarian Hampton at pick 19, which is somewhat a little bit of a gain.
14:31Blake Corum at 102, which is a gain. Ja'Cory Krosky-Merritt at 126.
14:34Chris Rodriguez at 150. And then George Helani at 235.
14:38So this was a this is an early July draft.
14:41It's July 5th is when I drafted this. And then at wide receiver, Zay Flowers, Terry McLaurin, Devontae Adams, Makai Lemon also
14:47had actually pretty bad CLV on this team. But then I had Stefan Diggs.
14:51So again, Zay Flowers, Terry McLaurin, Devontae Adams, Makai Lemon, Stefan Diggs.
14:55Nailed the stack too. So I nailed the stack.
14:58This is before we knew, I think, yeah, had it have been before we knew Diggs being in Washington.
15:04So I had McLaurin and Diggs with Jaden Daniels.
15:06Dontavian Wicks is on this team. I was drafting a lot of Wicks whenever he was cheaper.
15:12Dazon Stripling is on this team at 187 overall.
15:14Taequann Thornton and then Kayshawn Booty at the 1906 is when I got Booty.
15:19And then at tight end, all three of the guys are at discounts.
15:22I got Dalton Kincaid at the 1007, Jawan Johnson at the 1407, and Terrence Ferguson at the 1706.
15:28So that team on paper right now staring at it, I love that team.
15:32Taequann Thornton is maybe somewhat iffy, but that's the only player on that team that looks like they're in a worse situation
15:39now than when I drafted the team, essentially. Stripling going 100 picks later for those.
15:43Yeah, yeah. Stripling in this case is going 100 picks later.
15:47And so I stare at that team and I'm like, yeah, this team is awesome on paper.
15:52I really like it. But who knows how that's going to go down?
15:56Like we don't know for sure that this is going to be a really good team.
16:01I could track it this year and see, and I would almost guarantee you that it doesn't even advance.
16:07You know, like the odds are not in its favor to advance.
16:10So I do think that I've taken a step back and thought about CLV a little bit differently because I think the
16:17best ball analyst and the best ball industry and market and the way people communicate about best ball, I think that it's way too CLV focused.
16:25It's way too much. You know, immediately when someone gets injured, people are sharing screenshots of their exposure, which is why I
16:31sent that tweet out earlier this week when the Josh Jacobs ruling came out and I said, wow, not a single best
16:38ball drafter is overweight on Josh Jacobs. Crazy, you know, because when that stuff goes down, no one is tweeting that they have 18% Josh Jacobs.
16:46They're like, oh, I got 35% Marshawn Lloyd and I haven't drafted Josh Jacobs once.
16:51It's like, okay, congratulations. You know, like we, like, I just don't think it's that big of a deal.
16:56I mean, that kind of thing obviously is, but I mean, that's where people's brains go.
17:01And they think about CLV in that way, obviously in a really, really harsh situation, like Ricky Pierce all going down, Josh
17:08Jacobs being on the commissioner exempt list, like that stuff matters, but that's the way that the, the best ball industry sort of like thinks about things.
17:16I think it's a little bit overstated. Yeah. I think to me, it comes down to, yes, we should be hunting what
17:23we perceive to be closing value down the line.
17:26You did so very well, especially with the two veteran receivers.
17:29This is something we're looking at with contingent upside running backs whose value could change throughout the summer via coaching or injury.
17:36But on the flip side, I think we do just need to not be so hesitant to continue to buy these players while they steam up.
17:44And of course, some may steam up to a spot that is not comfortable in taking them.
17:49That's fair. But I think where people might be getting themselves in trouble is just being completely stubborn and saying like the
17:55frequency with which I'm taking this player now that they've steamed up because I want to protect whatever CLV bags I have, I'm not going to take them.
18:04And I think that's where we start to get into a lot of trouble.
18:08Yeah. I had a hard time with that in a way with Jonathan Brooks because I had a lot of Jonathan Brooks early on.
18:15And the thing that I had to remind myself is that your combinations also are going to be going to look a lot different.
18:23You know, like one thing that I want to be better at next year is drafting.
18:28Like I get into certain players over a period of time.
18:31Like there was a two or three week window where I was so into Ashton Gentry this summer, like so into him.
18:38And that's, you know, I mean, I'll talk about him in a second, but I was so into Ashton Gentry.
18:44I was taking him around where, you know, like James Cook is and Jonathan Taylor is now.
18:49I wasn't really thinking twice and I regretted that, especially not, it has nothing to do with the injury.
18:55I think he's going to be fine too anyway.
18:57But like, I regretted that because when you then become that overweight on certain players, you're then tempted to not draft them later on in the off season.
19:06When you're not drafting them later on in the off season, you're getting, you're, you're just drafting the same type of roster
19:13over and over again at certain pockets of the C of the, of the summer.
19:17Right. Jonathan Brooks is very similar there where I got a lot of good CLV with Jonathan Brooks.
19:23And admittedly, I didn't draft him that much in round six, if at all, you know, where, where he was and ended up being steamed up.
19:31I think that's probably going to end up being a mistake in the end, you know, like to think about who I
19:37would be drafting him with and the, the, the abundance of, of new information and more accurate information I have now versus
19:44when I was drafted Jonathan Brooks back in May.
19:47This is where, and to bring a poker aspect into this, like if you have similar guys in a tier and honestly,
19:53like the time of day is like the reason why you make a decision as to one or two or three guys
20:00that are valued similarly, randomizing might be the way to go.
20:03Right. And just letting, letting variants take, take its course.
20:06Right. Like taking yourself completely away from the decision.
20:09This happens a lot in poker where you get into a spot and a solver will tell you certain frequencies you should
20:16raise certain frequencies you should call, et cetera. And in live poker.
20:19And when people were playing online, they will literally look at a clock, literally look at a clock and split it into
20:26thirds or something and say, if it's in this third, I'm going to make this decision.
20:31Yeah. Like this might sound crazy to some people listening or watching, but when you have players graded so similarly that the
20:38decision is quite literally like whatever pops into your brain, like sometimes just randomizing might be the way to go.
20:44Yeah. No, I think it is. Like I, it's something that I need to think about next year, uh, in more detail while I'm drafting.
20:51Cause I, I also think that like, there's a, in a lore of when you're drafting in May and June to sort
20:58of like stake a claim and try to obtain some of that CLV.
21:02The action gente thing is just silly though, because it's not like he was ever going to rise any more than, than
21:09where he was going, you know, but there's some players where that would be the case where you were able, you would
21:15be able to, you know, gain some of that value by drafting them a lot early on.
21:21It's just a lot easier to do that in the later rounds than it is in the, in the early rounds of drafts.
21:28Yeah. To me, this exercise feels like it's more relevant towards the end of the first round and through the second round
21:34where values are just so smushed together that whatever personal opinion you've developed in that time period, you're just going to decide
21:41to pick one player over another, but they're so tightly valued that what really is the difference between these players.
21:47And the other thing too, that I ran into is that doing 150 drafts, if I look at my distribution of like
21:54where I was getting picks, I got a ton of later round picks, like, you know, let's say one Oh seven onward
22:00in the early parts of, of the Millie, you know, in, in May and June.
22:05And then I started getting front half ones. And when I got the front half ones, my stances were changing.
22:11Like I liked Kenneth Walker when he signed for a, when, when he signed in Kansas city, did the free agent episode
22:18on it, you know, throughout some of the success rate stats, whatever, you know, I was very bullish on Kenneth Walker.
22:24And then there was a period of time in May where I'm like, man, people are even more bullish than I am.
22:31And then I did a little bit more research in like late June or into early July.
22:36And I'm like, Oh wow. I really like Kenneth Walker.
22:39But by the time that I liked him again, it was at a point where I wasn't getting those back half of the first round picks as much.
22:47And so, you know, I'm still overweight on Walker, but I wish I was even more, you know, I'm not like 11%.
22:54I wish I was like 13%. You know, it's just those small things really happened throughout the summer that I want to
23:01be more cognizant of, you know, as I'm, as I'm drafting next year, I want to also talk about a rational drafting.
23:08There was that one clip of me with the Tyler Shuck stack, you know, I, that, that new Orleans stack.
23:14And there was this guy who, or this person, you know, it could be a girl as well, who was drafting at
23:20the turn or at least on the other side of the board and reached a pretty decent bit to get Tyler Shuck,
23:27despite already having unstacked, I think Trevor Lawrence and Matthew Stafford.
23:30And like, I put on a little bit of a show for it, admittedly, you know, I'm, I'm doing a live stream content.
23:37Yeah. I got to be bored while you were making content, right?
23:41People, people like took it seriously. Like, Oh man, you're taking this way too seriously.
23:46This is what's wrong with. Yeah. You're just an old man yelling at people just having fun playing fan.
23:51I'm like, guys, this isn't that serious. It was just for fun.
23:55I like to do that. That's my personality. I do it all the time with my friends, just go over the top and have fun with it.
24:03Right. And so, uh, in the end, realistically, when I look at people being what I think is irrational during best ball
24:10drafts and taking, you know, naked Matthew Stafford, when there's only Terrence Ferguson basically, or one of the tight ends late to
24:17stack with him, you know, you didn't get who can a cool, you didn't get Devante Adams and you're drafting Matthew Stafford
24:23in the seventh round ahead of ADP without either of those wide receivers.
24:27That to me is a rational drafting in best ball.
24:30It's just not rational. With that being said, this is what Adam Levitan really focused on last year when I talked to him on the show.
24:38And I think is really important because there was like a Joe Burrow versus Jalen Hurts discussion that was often going on
24:45and like the round five, round six area. And Levitan made the point that you shouldn't be mad at those people because
24:51they're irrational, which means you're facing easier competition. And so realistically, you go from a U verse 11 to a U verse
24:5810 to a U verse nine, and you have better odds of advancing as long as you can recover from that person taking that player, you know?
25:06And I, I think that if you listen to the show, if you draft a lot of best ball teams, if you're
25:13consuming other best ball content, wherever, right, you're going to be better than the average player at reacting to things going down
25:20in drafts because immediately your brain can say, Oh yeah, I didn't get Tyler Shuck, but I can get Malik Willis and
25:26have a back stack with like Caleb Douglas or Chris Bell or something.
25:30And then all of a sudden I still have a decent stack that has a lot of upside.
25:36So that's something I've, I've really tried to focus on as well is just, you know, if, if people are irrational and
25:43they're stealing your stacks, first off, don't expect teams to not steal your stacks.
25:47If you're just like pushing it. That's the one thing that does annoy me is when people are like, Oh, I had,
25:53I took Jamar chase one Oh three and Joe burrow was snipe for me.
25:58One pick before I was picking in the sixth round.
26:01It's like, dude, you're getting them past ADP. You know, that's, that's different than someone taking burrow in round three after you
26:07got Jamar chase in round one, right? Overall, those drafters, if someone's taking Joe burrow in round three, that's more than likely
26:14going to end up being a dead team more than likely, of course, crazy things can happen, but let's embrace the fact that you're, you're facing easier competition.
26:23Mark Garcia said it last week too, when it comes to stacking and expectations, game theory, optimal state can only be met if everybody's playing optimal.
26:31And I promise you being in these draft rooms, ain't everybody playing up.
26:35They're definitely not. They're definitely not. I also want to talk about making assumptions about player situations, Josh Jacobs, you know, that,
26:41that was kind of up in the air, but then there's certain parts of the summer where you're like, Oh, I can draft them confidently.
26:49Or now obviously we can't draft them confidently. There was even that six hour window where I, I kind of wish I
26:55did fire off a take during the, the Mike Washington, Ashton, Gentie, you know, Gentie being, being sidelined and, you know, the
27:02prayer circle stuff and ended up being an ankle sprain.
27:05But I do think that from a game theory perspective, if your initial reaction was to say, I'm going to draft Mike
27:12Washington in round six or in round five or something like that, when we had no idea as to, to when Gentie
27:19or like, like what was going on with Gentie, I think that's just bad game theory in a contest where, you know,
27:25you're, you're looking for, for upside, you're looking for first, you know, you getting Mike Washington in round five versus, or let's
27:32just say round seven, you know, you getting him there.
27:35I think it's different once you get into like round nine, round 10, because there's a different opportunity cost and such.
27:41You getting Mike Washington in round seven in that case versus his ADP settling in round six, maybe round five.
27:47Let's just say, let's just be super optimistic about Washington and how the market viewed him.
27:52Let's say that if Gentie were out for the year, he'd settle in as a round five pick.
27:58Okay. Which I think is, is pretty bullish on, on Mike Washington and you got him in round seven.
28:04You can't tell me that that value gain is greater than the chance that Gentie is okay while drafting Gentie in the ninth round.
28:11You know, like very clearly the Gentie side is going to be the more, and I'm saying this all in hindsight.
28:17I understand, but I do think that that's part of the way that we should be thinking about this stuff.
28:23And I made the mistake with this with Malik neighbors.
28:26I a hundred percent made the mistake with this where I said to myself, I think he's going to end up on
28:33pup because beat writers are saying this and things are trending this way.
28:37And this is just the way that things go when you get that second operation, et cetera.
28:42And so I was very underweight through like 80 drafts with Malik neighbors.
28:46And he was going at the, in the end of round four often, and I'm passing on him for Luther burden or whomever.
28:53Right. And that was a mistake because now he's a round two guy.
28:57I'd rather have Malik neighbors than Luther burden. And so I'm not saying this, like, you know, sitting all high and mighty,
29:04like I know exactly how to react and how to do this, but I do think I want to take a little
29:10bit more time to be thoughtful and how I'm making those decisions.
29:14This is one of the reasons why you do the prospect guide, because at the end of the day, talent matters.
29:20How many times, and we'll see this in redraft, a running back's going to get hurt and everyone's going to be saying wheels up for the backup.
29:29He's in there. He's just going to assume the workload at the same quality as the starter.
29:34And we've just seen this time and time and time again.
29:37When that incident happened, Ashton Jenty's range of outcomes widened to increase, to include some really bad outcomes.
29:43Right. But not knowing that he was for sure out, his high range outcomes were still in there somewhere.
29:48Right. Mike Washington's range of outcomes kind of shifted down the paradigm a little bit, but it's not like they suddenly widened
29:55to the point that Mike Washington had these ceiling outcomes that could in any way justify the types of prices we're talking about.
30:02Like I clicked his name and in a couple of slows in like the late ninth into the 10th round during that
30:09time, that was the only, that was the only exposure I was able during that six hour period that I was able to do.
30:16I couldn't fire up a draft. I was with the kids and that was the only exposure I could get was a
30:23couple of ninth round into 10th round picks because I figured even if this Jenty thing isn't that big of a deal.
30:29And, you know, I didn't think he was going to play week one, like no matter what, just based on it.
30:36But, you know, now we're, it's like 50, 50, it sounds like, but regardless, Washington would probably settle in as like a
30:4311th to 13th round pick, even if Ashton Jenty were like moderately okay.
30:46And then obviously there's the upside of, okay, if Jenty's out of, out for the season.
30:51And then on top of that, I just needed more Mike Washington.
30:55I had not been heavy enough on Mike Washington for a lot of reasons.
30:59And so it's just very important to think through what those range of outcomes actually are before just kind of having this
31:06like snap judgment of where we should be drafting these players.
31:09The NFL never stops and neither does its newest podcast.
31:12The NFL Report hosted by me, Andrew Siciliano. It is your home for everything football.
31:17Williams, drifting, sprinting for space, in all kinds of trouble, putting it up for next.
31:21He is up! We're tapping the biggest news stories, giving you expert analysis, fantasy previews, game picks, and more.
31:27We fly around every single place. We dominate every single place.
31:31Want to hear from the league's top stars ahead of the biggest matchups?
31:35We've got you covered. They're a really good football team.
31:38We got to have all hands on deck. Join me and an all-star cast of analysts for everything you need to know from around the league.
31:45Get new episodes of the NFL Report Monday through Friday, all season long.
31:49Listen to the NFL Report podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
31:55Hey everyone, I'm Mike Yam. And I'm Trevor Sikama.
31:58And together, we host the NFL Fantasy Football Show.
32:00Fantasy season is upon us. Are you ready to dominate your league?
32:04Because if you aren't locked in with us on the NFL Fantasy Football Show, you're already playing from behind.
32:10Every episode, we're going to dive into the biggest fantasy headlines.
32:13Injury updates that you'll need before kickoff. The best starts and sits across every position.
32:18And matchups you can exploit to destroy your league mates.
32:21We're talking sleepers, breakout stars, and the guys you cannot afford to bench.
32:25From rookies on the rise to longtime stars still at it, we cover it all.
32:29Whether you're a first-time player or a grizzled vet chasing another championship, we give you the advantage and the confidence you need to make every move count.
32:37Weekly analysis, hot takes, and unique insider knowledge all in one place.
32:41Does fantasy dominance sound appealing to you? Listen to the NFL Fantasy Football Show on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
32:49Last thing I want to say is that I do think that we all need to just accept the fact that, and
32:56this is not really a learning for me this year, but I leaned into it more this year, so I benefited from it more this year.
33:04The market will always move after a transaction actually occurs.
33:07It started with A.J. Brown this summer. You mean A.J.
33:10Brown's going to the Patriots? Yeah, yeah. A.J. Brown was a mid-third-round pick to start the offseason, and then he went to
33:16the Patriots, and you get him in the mid-second round.
33:19That's a huge, huge jump in overall value. And then you had Keenan Allen, who I was getting in the 20th round, who ended up signing.
33:27Now, I will say, I think Keenan Allen, Stefan Diggs, Debo Samuel probably couldn't have found a better spot for those three guys just in general.
33:35So I do think that that has to come into consideration.
33:39But even if Keenan Allen went to an iffier spot, he'd be a 15th round pick or a 16th round pick.
33:45He'd still gain some CLV. Stefan Diggs, he'd still gain some CLV even if he didn't go to Washington, which I think
33:52is one of the better spots that he could have gone to.
33:55And Debo Samuel, obviously he hit the best spot for him, but he's going to rise in ADP.
34:01So these are good situations, but when these players actually sign somewhere, they do go up in price.
34:06And the same thing happened last year. I had a lot of discussions on the live streams when Jordan Addison was iffy about the suspension.
34:14We didn't know how long he was going to be out for, like when it was going to drop or whatever.
34:20And I waited to draft Addison last year until after the suspension actually dropped and hit.
34:25And his ADP fell. It dropped because the market just reacts to actual news.
34:29So I think we saw it a little bit with the market was kind of factoring in the Josh Jacobs stuff because
34:36that was kind of lingering a little bit. But most of the time when these players are free agents and we know
34:43they're going to move somewhere, we should act on it before they actually move somewhere.
34:47Believe it or not, people, there are folks out there who don't eat, sleep, and breathe all of this.
34:53And don't form an opinion until the Schefter notification hits their phone that something happened.
34:58Yes. Yes, exactly. Exactly. All right. Let's get into the...
35:01This is what people were in the chat today during the live stream were asking about exposures.
35:06So I'll just walk through them. I got the top guys at each position, some players that I'm nervous could really burn
35:12me this year, and then some best CLV type stuff.
35:15So I'll start with quarterback. And Rich, I'm excited to just hear your reaction to these because we talked about players, obviously,
35:22throughout the summer, but seeing the actual exposure next to their name might invoke some sort of response from you.
35:28So I'm curious to hear what you think. So at quarterback, this is only the Millie.
35:33Okay? This is only the Millie. But my top roster quarterback is Baker Mayfield at 16%.
35:38Did we say Baker Mayfield's name once on this?
35:41Can we... Somebody, Claude, get on this. Go through every minute of the podcast this summer.
35:46This is just a really good example of why...
35:48Of how best ball works is that you're not really drafting the quarterback.
35:52You're drafting the stack, right? And I'll get to this in a second as to why Baker is the top quarterback.
35:59But Baker at 16%. Jalen Hurts at 15%. Jackson Dart at 15%.
36:02And that scares the living crap out of me.
36:05Admittedly. I'm very scared. But I'm shooting for upside a little bit here.
36:09I have three quarterback builds probably in like 95% of my rosters.
36:13And so my thought process with Jackson Dart was there were a few things happening.
36:17Number one, I think the upside is there for him to hit.
36:21I think the downside is there, but the upside is there also.
36:24We saw it last year. He has really good rushing numbers.
36:28If they continue to allow him to run the way that he did last year, he can certainly live up to ADP if not more.
36:35Like he can have a top three ceiling, top four ceiling in fantasy football.
36:40But the other reason why I was drafting a lot of Jackson Dart is because there's a three quarterback build.
36:46And oftentimes when you were in that like round 10 range where there weren't a lot of players that you were super,
36:52super excited about, I would just click Jackson Dart as a backstack quarterback because you could get, you know, Malachi Fields if you wanted to.
37:00Isaiah Likely. Like there were non Malik neighbors players that you could stack with Jackson Dart.
37:05So that's why I have Jackson Dart at 15% right now.
37:08I wish it was more like 12% probably to be a little bit more cautious about the downside risk.
37:14But I think he's going to play throughout the season.
37:17Like I don't think there's like much risk of, I mean, there's injury risk, but there's not risk of like him being benched or something like that.
37:25So I say that we'll clip this if it happens like week 11 or something like that, just to show how big of a moron I am.
37:33My number four, I was kind of shocked by it's Drake May.
37:37May I'm not even like high on like super, super high because I think there's going to be a little bit of regression.
37:44But I think this is a combination of I have a decent amount of AJ Brown.
37:49I was drafting Drake May with AJ Brown even before that trade went down.
37:53And then also it's just that pocket of quarterbacks and I'll get the falling quarterback.
37:58And oftentimes just ended up being Drake May and that like round six to seven range.
38:03And then unsurprisingly, my number five is Malik Willis at 14%.
38:06So those are the only guys above 14% in their 14 to 16%.
38:10No major quarterback is under 4%. That's just the way it works in best balls that you're drafting these players based on
38:17your wide receivers, not based on them themselves necessarily.
38:19So the Jackson Dart thing, he's down two rounds.
38:22I know. I didn't get a good CLV on Jackson Dart and I'll think in the end.
38:27But that's it's so odd to me because I think that's just people with a poor taste in their mouth about coaching him getting sacked once and Harbaugh.
38:36Yeah, I think it's coaching staff. But I think when you're talking about somebody like Dart who is likely going to generate
38:42points with his athleticism and mobility, I think we're counting on that when we take him.
38:47Those types of players are kind of agnostic to an extent of coaching.
38:51And sometimes even things like offensive line or situation because being athletic, you can still scramble and run and score points.
38:58So I don't know in this territory of Jordan Love and Kyler Murray, like I think it's still a fine enough click.
39:04I do love love. I think the Packers passing attack is going to be really fun this year.
39:10And then, you know, like Brock Purdy, I thought was really undervalued throughout the summer.
39:14The thing is that like you have to have like it's easier to get a player like Jackson Dart when there's only
39:21one partner that are that people are really going to stack him with in the early rounds.
39:26Whereas with Brock Purdy, you add, you know, people like forcing it with Kittle a little bit.
39:31And then Mike Evans, obviously earlier, Christian McCaffrey, even you could stack with.
39:35And then obviously towards the end, it became Dazon Stribbling or Dajon.
39:39I keep saying Dajon. It's definitely Dajon Stribbling. You have Dajon Stribbling that's going there too.
39:44And so like I'm higher. I think I'm at like 12, 13 percent Purdy.
39:48But yeah, I mean, like that's that's why Jackson Dart is where he is.
39:52And Malik Willis to an extent too. Willis is a very easy click as a QB3 or QB2, knowing that you're going
39:59to get, you know, a Daniel Jones or something as your QB3 or Aaron Rodgers or whomever, because you know that you
40:06don't really need to even stack him. I mean, he could get it done just with his legs alone.
40:12So that's where the quarterback stuff is. I guess I'm going to go straight to wide receiver really quick because it'll make
40:18sense as to why the quarterbacks look the way they do.
40:22So at wide receiver, Keenan Allen is my number one wide receiver, actually number one player in the Millie at 20.
40:28He's the only one over 20 percent. He's at 21 percent.
40:31Did you guys go out and celebrate on Saturday night?
40:34Oh, my gosh. My gosh. Yes. By the way, if anyone's like thinking about drinking and driving, don't.
40:40Please don't. It's especially if you're an athlete. That goes without saying.
40:43Yeah. I mean, well, not even especially. Just don't do it, please.
40:47Don't do it. But Keenan Allen, 21 percent. Trey Harris is my second wide receiver at 19 percent, which is a play
40:54on the Chargers offense and just getting a cheap piece in that offense.
40:58Luther Burden at 18 percent. That's not going to surprise anybody.
41:01And here's why the Baker exposure is as high as it is, because I have Chris Godwin at 17 percent.
41:07Good CLV on Chris Godwin, too. I'll get to that in a little bit.
41:11And then I also have at 15 percent. Zay Flowers, Pat Bryant, Stefan Diggs.
41:16And then at 14 percent, I have Rashid Shahid, Dontavian Wicks and Parker Washington.
41:20So those are my highest exposed wide receivers. There's actually some pretty good CLV with those guys, especially, you know, I'll get to that in a little bit.
41:28So that's wide receiver. Any any any surprises for you on the wide receiver list, Rich?
41:33No, based on our discussions, everything looks to be on par.
41:37I'm interested in one player in Parker Washington. Anecdotally, I know you don't have the data in front of you and might be a challenge to answer.
41:45But anecdotally, do you think you were drafting most of Washington before his meteoric rise or do you think it was throughout the summer more evenly?
41:53Well, I can tell you when I get to the best CLV portion, Parker Washington is on that list.
41:59He's number five on that list that I have listed.
42:02So I'm at 14 percent exposure. My average pick for Parker Washington was 60th overall.
42:06And right now he's 49th overall. So I was getting him at the at the five, six turn pretty consistently.
42:12I mean, that's nice. Yeah. So like a lot of sixth round Parker Washington, you know, late fifth if it's a wide receiver heavy draft.
42:20And then now he goes to the four or five turns.
42:23So I was getting him before the rise really happened.
42:26But I still have drafted him a couple of times even in the in the early 50s, you know, just because I think he's he's a good pick.
42:35But the Parker Washington thing has has the two I've done to quote unquote hometown drafts, redrafts and Parker Washington is getting drafted.
42:42People like don't think you're going to walk into your drafts and have Parker Washington.
42:46It's wild. You it's wild because there's like everyone has a different Parker Washington experience.
42:51And I look at ADP and like it's still very reasonable where he goes, you know, like where he's listed on these platforms.
42:58So I have to continue to force the issue like draft Parker Washington based on these numbers.
43:03I think it's a little, you know, this is why next year with the draft guy, we're doing things a lot differently.
43:10It's going to be a lot more consumable from the standpoint of like players to target and stuff like that.
43:16But it makes it really hard to even put up a list of players to target because ADP is just so different
43:22with every draft and with every platform. All right.
43:25Running back. Number one. Jonah Coleman at 17%. I got a lot of Jonah.
43:29Most of the Jonah Coleman is from earlier this offseason.
43:32So I, again, I wish I was drafting him a little bit more later, but I kept getting to that point in
43:39the draft and being like, I don't want to, you know, I wanted to get exposure to these other guys.
43:45And I already have enough Jonah Coleman ended up at 17%.
43:49Second one is Tajay Spears at 15%. The reason for that is I think there's going to be more of a split
43:55in the Tennessee backfield and he's a pass catcher.
43:58I think they'll deploy him as a pass catcher and they're going to probably be a bad team.
44:03Number three, no surprise, Ramondre Stevenson at 14%. Number four, bad CLV, but Ashton Gentry at 13%.
44:09That's kind of scary. That's why I was, I was borderline puking whenever Ashton Gentry was hurt a couple of weeks ago.
44:15Jalen Warren at 13% also. Chase Brown at 13% and Kenny Gainwell at 13% because I think that he's going to play
44:22some role, be a pass catcher, full PPR platform.
44:25You know, it's a solid, solid enough pick. I don't have like high hopes for Gainwell, but I do think you can catch a lot of passes.
44:33And then the last one is James Cook at 12%.
44:36So I made a stance that I'm drafting more.
44:39I think I ended up with 6% Jonathan Taylor.
44:41So I have more James Cook than Jonathan Taylor.
44:44I just picked him over Taylor for the most part in, you know, that, that 109 range or wherever.
44:50So I have 12% James Cook. I'm hoping for that boost in receiving production.
44:54Gainwell continuing with the, the Bucks correlation. So again, we've talked about this all summer.
44:59Like sometimes the people that we select is just because of the way the roster is constructed and, and thus the, the
45:05other players are going to be rising as well.
45:08Exactly. And then at tight end, I feel pretty good about the tight end room.
45:13Actually, uh, Terrence Ferguson at 19% Kenyon Sadiq at 17% Evan Ingram, who they cut Justin Jolie this past week, which I
45:19think is actually a pretty big deal for Evan Ingram to be their primary pass catcher.
45:24Brand new, like not brand new offense, but they have a new coordinator and such Kate Otten at 13%.
45:30It looks like I need the Bucks offense to be good this year.
45:34And then the last one who I think has been one of the best values in best ball is Michael Mayer, where,
45:41you know, you're going to get a lot of 12 personnel in Vegas.
45:45They don't have good pass catchers. Uh, and obviously there's contingent upside as well for mayor with Brock Bowers going down.
45:51Mayor could just have some spiked weeks himself, I think.
45:54So I have 13% Michael Mayer. We'll say for the last time I get to have this platform, Kenyon Sadiq doing tight end drills yesterday.
46:02The plan all along was to get him ready for week one.
46:05I think it's going to be wheels up for him.
46:08I'm hoping Jets offense. I'm hoping. The NFL never stops and neither does its newest podcast.
46:13The NFL report hosted by me, Andrew Siciliano. It is your home for everything football.
46:18Williams drifting. Sprinted for space. In all kinds of trouble.
46:21Put it up against the end of time. We're tapping the biggest news stories, giving you expert analysis, fantasy previews, game picks, and more.
46:28We fly around every single play. We dominate every single play.
46:31Want to hear from the league's top stars ahead of the biggest matchups?
46:35We've got you covered. They're a really good football team.
46:38We got to have all hands on deck. Join me and an all-star cast of analysts for everything you need to know from around the league.
46:46Get new episodes of the NFL Report Monday through Friday all season long.
46:50Listen to the NFL Report podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
46:56Hey, everyone. I'm Mike Yam. And I'm Trevor Sikama.
46:59And together, we host the NFL Fantasy Football Show.
47:01Fantasy season is upon us. Are you ready to dominate your league?
47:05Because if you aren't locked in with us on the NFL Fantasy Football Show, you're already playing from behind.
47:11Every episode, we're going to dive into the biggest fantasy headlines.
47:14Injury updates that you'll need before kickoff. The best starts and sits across every position.
47:19And matchups you can exploit to destroy your league mates.
47:22We're talking sleepers, breakout stars, and the guys you cannot afford to bench.
47:26From rookies on the rise to longtime stars still at it, we cover it all.
47:30Whether you're a first-time player or a grizzled vet chasing another championship, we give you the advantage and the confidence you need to make every move count.
47:38Weekly analysis, hot takes, and unique insider knowledge all in one place.
47:42Does fantasy dominance sound appealing to you? Listen to the NFL Fantasy Football Show on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
47:50Let's go through some players who might burn me.
47:53Running back, I have 2% Tony Pollard, which is not a surprise to anyone who's listened to my content this summer.
47:593% J.K. Dobbins, which I think Dobbins is actually a better and best ball type player, but I kind of want to
48:06just take a stand and say, you know, I think that R.J.
48:09Harvey and Jonah Coleman are better at clicks, technically.
48:12Travion Henderson, not really a big surprise if I'm at 14% Ramondre Stevenson.
48:16I have 4.7% Travion Henderson. And I was scared with the Henderson stuff, but then I was able to click his name
48:23a couple more times because his ADP started falling.
48:25Devon Achan at 5%, that's very scary. Very scary.
48:28Unbelievably scary. But the 5% blanket feels okay, though.
48:31You know? Like, it wasn't a full fade at all for Achan.
48:35And I got him when he was falling to the later parts of the second round instead of having to take him,
48:41you know, in the early parts of the second round.
48:44So, like, a 5% blanket on a player that I do have, you know, that I am lower on than, like, the season-long ADP market feels okay.
48:53And then Bucky Irving, I'm only at 5% as well.
48:56Not surprising with the Kenneth Gainwell stuff. I think Gainwell is a better value than Bucky.
49:00But I have bought more and more into Bucky Irving over the last month or so.
49:05You know, I put him in that same tier now with, like, Bashal Tootin, David Montgomery.
49:10Like, I think he belongs in that tier. He's at the bottom, more towards the bottom of that tier.
49:16But I do have Bucky Irving at 5%. He could screw me, too.
49:20It's kind of funny because that's a Buccaneer. And I have clearly a lot of guys.
49:25I think I'm overweight in Nabucca, too. So, I have Baker, Godwin, Otten.
49:29You know, I have McMillan. I know I have some, you know, I've drafted him.
49:33Ted Hurst even has dart throws. But Bucky's the one that I've been underweight on, which is definitely a little bit scary.
49:40We need tail outcomes to have success in this thing.
49:43And I like the fact that there's correlation with who you're overweight on and who you're underweight on, right?
49:49You didn't split the difference. Like, if you have a stance on somebody, have a stance on somebody.
49:54It's like Hubbard and Dowdle. It's like Hubbard and Dowdle last year, remember?
49:58Correct. In this very show. I was at like 13%, 14% Dowdle and like 1% Chuba Hubbard, 2% Chuba Hubbard.
50:04And yeah, I mean, like that was a stand that I took.
50:08Even it's not even like a conscious stand that you're making oftentimes, right?
50:12It's just this is the way that the drafts are falling.
50:15And I've liked Gainwell's value because I think he's going to be involved.
50:19He's a pass catcher. He's going to give you a nice floor, especially for like a hero RB build.
50:25If you're in like Gibbs, Bijon range and you're at that like 8-9 turn and Gainwell's there, I loved getting Gainwell there.
50:32And then like the Bucky stuff, there's just a lot of good wide receivers in that range.
50:37Like so many good wide receivers. So it was hard for me to draft him a lot.
50:42But I did get Bucky at times at like the late 5th into the 6th round.
50:47There's only two wide receivers I'm really concerned about because my wide receiver exposure is a little bit flatter.
50:53And because I liked that range so much in that round 4-5 area, I'm only at 3% DJ Moore, which is scary.
50:59Very scary. And I'm only at 5% Justin Jefferson.
51:02So I decided to get a little bit more CD lamb.
51:05And I don't know. I mean, obviously Justin Jefferson can go off.
51:09I have him on some season long teams where he's fallen a bit.
51:13I'm still a little bit concerned about Kyler's fit in this offense and what that might look like.
51:18It's not me sitting here saying don't draft Justin Jefferson.
51:21It's not even me saying don't draft DJ Moore that much.
51:25I have him as an avoid in the draft guy, but it's a confidence level of 1, which is basically like I have guys in his tier.
51:33He's in the same tier as these guys. I just have him towards the bottom of that tier is what that really means.
51:40So the DJ Moore thing was difficult for me because he would always get boosted up in ADP with Josh Allen because of Josh Allen.
51:48And I've noticed that in season long drafts, I've actually drafted DJ Moore a few times because you're not getting that same
51:54stacking force, if you will, in a regular season long draft as you are in best ball.
51:59Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. The CD lamb and Jetta sit right there in that massive running back run.
52:05So when you take one of those two players there, you are deciding to go against the grain with the running back run.
52:12I think that click is a lot easier for CD because of the offensive environment and the quarterback.
52:17Right. And you're taking a leap if you take Jettis.
52:20I mean, we love the player. We absolutely do.
52:23And we're confident that Kevin O'Connell has done some good stuff, but I think it is much more of a risk than CD.
52:30So I understand the Jettis thing, but he is he's just such a tremendous player that.
52:35Yeah. Yeah. He's he's probably the most right to be on this list of who you're scared.
52:40Yes. I'm scared out of my mind about having 5% Justin Jefferson.
52:44The other thing, too, is that that back half of the first over the last couple of weeks has become easier to click.
52:51Like even on today's stream, I took CD lamb.
52:53It's been easier because they're like Brees Hall falls to the fourth consistently now.
52:57Or I got Javante on that team at the end of the third just to get some.
53:03I needed a little bit more exposure to Javante and I had CD lamb.
53:07So like it became a little bit easier in a best ball environment to do that.
53:12It's way harder in a regular season long environment to not go RBRB when you're in the back half of the first round.
53:19It's way, way harder because once you get into round three, you're not going to have a choice at running back.
53:25And there's going to going to be very good wide receivers to choose from there.
53:30So keep that in mind. Tight end 3% Trey McBride.
53:33That's scary. I love this, though. I love this.
53:35I went into the summer leaning towards I think the market is wrong.
53:39And I think that Bowers, I think there should be a discernible difference between Bowers and McBride.
53:45Yes. And just the more the summer continued and the more negative things came out of Arizona.
53:50I mean, I've seen Nate Hackett firsthand. I just started getting more and more worried about Trey McBride.
53:55And I this is a stand that I like, especially because we talked about the tight end meta and the ability to
54:02get a bunch of guys late and just have a deep tight end room with a bunch of upside with a bunch of athletic guys.
54:10I think if you're going to bite the bullet, Bowers is the elite guy.
54:14And I think I think leaning into fading Trey McBride is absolutely the right way.
54:18Yeah. And I had I think I have 11% Bowers, which feels good because tight end to me, like tight end is
54:25like the guy needs to go absolutely nuclear to be worthwhile and in a best ball environment.
54:30And so I wanted to be overweight on Bowers because I think there's a chance that he does do that this year.
54:37But there the opportunity cost is not insignificant in that range of drafts that I didn't want to be up to like the 15, 16% range.
54:45If you are more power to you, I get it because I understand the upside with Bowers.
54:50But I just wanted to play more of like the this is what fantasy football is kind of game where you're only
54:57starting one tight end, you know, et cetera, et cetera.
55:00So I'm overweight on Bowers, but I'm not massively overweight on Bowers.
55:03I'm at like 11%, which is kind of a decent bit overweight for me in the way that I handle my portfolio.
55:10But still, and then Colson Loveland, I'm at like 9%.
55:13So I'm a little bit overweight with with Loveland.
55:16Tyler Warren, I think I'm at like eight or 9% as well.
55:19It was just McBride. I just I couldn't make the click.
55:23All the things I've talked about with him were, you know, he he had 120 more routes than any other tight end last year.
55:30I talked about this in the bold predictions episode, but his his fantasy points per route run last year is 0.46 with Marvin Harrison Jr.
55:38On the field, it was 0.41. So it did drop a little bit.
55:42So you're taking away like there's going to be regression in terms of raw routes run.
55:46And then there's also going to be regression in terms of just the the sheer.
55:51I mean, he had more end zone targets than all but one tight end last year since 2016.
55:57Like he's he's not going to score as many touchdowns, which means his PPR points per game per route run is going to lower.
56:04And if you're going to run fewer routes, it all compounds to potentially being like four fewer PPR points per game year over year.
56:11And that scares me with Trey McBride. It's so funny talking about Trey McBride in that respect, too, because he was always
56:18the guy who was crushing it efficiently and not getting in the end zone and then just has this insane spike touchdowns.
56:24Yeah. And then the other guy's Harold Fannin at three percent.
56:28And, you know, I love his mom, but and I love him.
56:31I love him, too. I love Harold Fannin, but I do worry about obviously offensive situation, new coordinator.
56:37I think they're going to be tight end friendly.
56:40But regardless, there's more competition on that team. Like Fannin was crushing towards the end of last year because he was seeing
56:46a 30 percent, 31 percent target share in that offense.
56:49I just don't think that's going to happen again.
56:52And admittedly, I was drafting, you know, like waiting around, waiting around and a half throughout the summer.
56:58I know that their ADPs have converged a little bit more and just getting Dalton Kincaid instead of Harold Fannin.
57:04Like I think Kincaid has a very similar upside case, if not a better upside case.
57:09And so I just went that direction. If I'm if I was going to draft a tight end in that range, it was Kincaid or even Kittle.
57:17Like I was going after Kittle at a lower cost than Fannin.
57:20But Fannin's ADP has fallen a little bit over the last couple of weeks, I think more anecdotally.
57:26So we didn't see Josh Allen on the players who could burn me list.
57:30So I'm assuming catching up on Josh Allen, the domino of that was also picking picking some more Dalton Kincaid as well.
57:37Yeah, I had a lot of Kincaid. I had a lot of Kincaid in general because I just like his case.
57:43Like I have 10 percent Kincaid this year. Josh Allen, I ended up getting 5.3 percent, which nice.
57:49I think feels feels pretty good for an early round quarterback and how that looks.
57:53You know, again, I wish I had more DJ more, but I had a really hard time when I drafted Josh Allen
58:00clicking DJ because I would I would only get Josh Allen when he fell to the late third round.
58:06And then I had a really hard time drafting DJ more at the beginning of that wide receiver tier when there are
58:12so many good wide receivers that I just I just straight up like more like Jalen Waddle or even like a Ted Arro McMillan or whomever.
58:20And so that was the reason why it was just harder for me to get to more with those stacks.
58:26You know, do I wish it was more even like 5 percent?
58:30Yeah, sure. Instead of like a 3 percent more.
58:33But, you know, I'm underweight on both, but I am overweight on Dalton Kincaid overall.
58:37All right. Let's talk about your biggest CLV winners.
58:40So I have eight guys that I want to talk through from a CLV perspective.
58:45Again, closing line value. These are the players that when I drafted them, they were being drafted way later than where they're being drafted right now.
58:53And I'll tell you, this is not a like an aggregate of like overall value gained by these guys in terms of
58:59like me weighing my exposure with them. It's just when I drafted them versus where they're drafted now.
59:05And I'll tell you my exposure to each of these guys.
59:08They're all pretty high exposure, except for Dejan Stribbling.
59:11I got on average at 156 overall. He's 84 currently and I have met 7 percent.
59:16That's a regret of mine. I wish I was not as stupid as I was back in May and June.
59:22And I was gobbling him up a little bit more in that like final round.
59:26Obviously, I have my my the team that I read off earlier has Dejan Stribbling.
59:31So it's not like I wasn't drafting him, but I do wish I was obviously overweight on Dejan Stribbling right now.
59:37And I'm not. I'm a little bit below market.
59:40It scares me. Don't love that. Could have easily put him on the wide receiver list, but I did get really good CLV with him.
59:48So I do think that evens out a little bit here where the 7 percent Stribbling at 156 overall is probably better
59:54than an 8.3 percent Stribbling at an 84 overall.
59:57Yeah. What's better? The 7 percent combos you have or whatever, 10 to 12 percent, 15 percent combos that other people have.
60:04Right. Marshawn Lloyd. I have 10 percent Lloyd and that is at an average pick of 191.
60:09He's at 110 now and he's rising at the moment.
60:12So I was going to say that's going to we're going to be sub 100 tomorrow.
60:17Yes, that's so that's good. That's good. CLV at 10 percent.
60:20Stefan Diggs. I'm at 15 percent. Like I said earlier, I had an average pick for Diggs at 129.
60:26He goes 85th overall. Keenan Allen. His average pick right now is 153.
60:30I got him on average at 219 and I have 21 percent of if Keenan Allen is like a wide receiver three in fantasy.
60:37It's going to be a beautiful thing. I don't think it's going to happen, but it'll be beautiful.
60:43Parker Washington. I talked about this earlier. Average pick 60th.
60:46He's now at 49 as an ADP and I have 14 percent Parker Washington.
60:50Jalen Waddell, guy that I've been very into this summer.
60:5334 is his ADP. I got him on average at 44 and I have 12 percent Jalen Waddell.
60:58Ramondre Stevenson. I average a 77 overall pick for Ramondre when he goes 64th overall.
61:03Now I have 14 percent Ramondre. And then Chris Godwin, 82 overall on average.
61:07He's at 69 now. And I have 17 percent Chris Godwin.
61:11So I tell people to rate my drafts rich at the end of every draft on the live stream out of 10.
61:17When you look at this portfolio, not knowing anything else, just knowing that I'm hopefully structurally drafting well.
61:23Right. That I'm not that I'm that I'm allocating resources properly per position.
61:27What would you rate this out of 10? This this portfolio?
61:30Feels like a solid like 8.3. I'll take it.
61:33There's there's probably some people out there that went nuts with like stripling, for example.
61:37And we're all about them that that might have some some minor advantages.
61:41But overall, like I'm not seeing I feel like there were some landmines, some real landmines in previous years in the overweight
61:48section where early on in the process there were.
61:51And maybe this is playing into the current meta where there were some running back specifically that we're just taking chances on
61:57in early summer, hoping things break our way. And I think that there might have been more of a concentration on early
62:04to mid round running backs such that like I'm not seeing Jaden Blue as one of your most.
62:09No. Owned running backs, which is which is a realistic outcome for you.
62:13My Jaden Blue exposure is under four percent in the Millie, which is great because he's he's drafted in pretty much every draft and not not anymore, obviously.
62:22But I'm still seeing him get drafted because of of where his ADP is sitting.
62:26But yeah, like I feel good about some of that stuff, you know, like the the guys who didn't make teams or
62:33like, you know, but there are some players where I do wish I had more like I and I loved Emmett Johnson coming out.
62:40Like I wish I had more. I'm only at like four or five percent Emmett Johnson because there was so much up
62:47in the air and I don't want to lock into a rookie take because it's very easy to inflate rookie production, you know, for these guys.
62:55But like I wish I was at like six, seven percent Emmett Johnson because I think he's going to be the RB
63:02to should have leaned into my analysis a little bit more because I really liked him as a prospect, you know.
63:08But then, you know, there's like guys like, you know, Kalon Black.
63:12I'm at four percent Kalon Black. I don't know.
63:15A lot of the a lot of the handcuffs, my approach has been to get them for sure.
63:20But I don't want to be massively overweight on a certain handcuff when there is something that needs to go down in
63:27order for those guys to probably be useful in some way.
63:30And, you know, a guy like Johnson, I didn't even know for a lot of the summer, like if he was for sure going to be that handcuff.
63:39Obviously, I wish that I leaned into the evaluation part a little bit more.
63:43But yeah, what I did notice is that a lot of the handcuffs, for instance, like a like a tank Bigsby.
63:49I'm at six percent tank Bigsby. OK, he was a guy that everyone was drafting.
63:54Like people have like 15 percent tank Bigsby. And I, you know, do I wish I wish I had 15 percent tank Bigsby if Saquon Barkley goes down?
64:02Yes. You know, like if that happens. But there are so many situations across the league that I don't think I'm overweight on any handcuff.
64:10But I have exposure to all of these handcuffs.
64:13Right. I'm trying to approach it in a way where if this one thing happens, I'm going to see something from it.
64:19But I'm not putting all my eggs in one injury basket because that just feels like just just embracing volatility way too much in the end.
64:27And most handcuff situations are such because there is a talent discrepancy between the two players.
64:32Right. Whereas ambiguous backfields that we target, there's not as much of a talent discrepancy, obviously.
64:37And I would say in most instances, the two ambiguous running backs are going to have a talent level that is going
64:44to supersede that of your traditional handcuff. Handcuff. Right.
64:46Right. A guy who even if they assume the volume because of an injury or something happening in front of them at
64:53the depth chart might not be able to be as efficient with those touches.
64:57Yeah. As somebody who's shown enough talent to the point where an NFL team says, we're comfortable giving you 40 percent of the workload anyway.
65:05Yeah. So you're talented enough to meet that threshold.
65:08And then if something happens, you get a ton of volume on top of that.
65:12A good example of that. And I want to throw this out there so that people know how I acted with.
65:19I've been talking about the Jacksonville backfield all summer.
65:21OK, ever since they got Chris Rodriguez, it's been a big fantasy football battle.
65:26And I think it's good to end this this season of becoming a basketball bro talking about Bayshall Tootin and Chris Rodriguez.
65:32All roads, because I feel like I feel like that's how the show started, probably, you know, this this summer.
65:38But I think that there and this is my general philosophy of best ball versus redraft and why I took the stance.
65:45And I've said all summer that Chris Rodriguez is a better in best ball type investment because Rodriguez is going to see work in this backfield.
65:53OK, he's he's going to they might be 50 50 in week one.
65:57The difference, though, is that I don't think he has a receiving upside.
66:01And Bayshall Tootin has more explosive upside. The pass catching upside is there.
66:05He's younger. There's more ambiguity to Bayshall Tootin's profile.
66:07And so in a regular managed season long league, you're going to have a very hard time, more than likely.
66:14Knowing exactly when to start Chris Rodriguez, I think it's going to be a pain in the butt.
66:19You might actually run into that with Bayshall Tootin as well.
66:22You very might well like have the exact same issue with him.
66:26The difference, though, is I see a path to upside of being a legit RB to into RB one territory in managed season long fantasy football.
66:34But this is me putting my money where my mouth is in terms of the analysis that I'm giving.
66:40I have nine point three percent Bayshall Tootin and I have nine point three percent Chris Rodriguez in best ball right now.
66:46OK, so like this is not a like I will sit here all day and say that you should be targeting Bayshall
66:53Tootin in the fifth to sixth round of your season long draft all day because the upside case rests in him.
66:59Chris Rodriguez, I actually think he's not that undervalued.
67:02So maybe it's a terrible like not the best example.
67:05I think that you can still throw that dart at him late because he's just still going as late as he is.
67:12Like realistically, I don't think there's a massive, massive difference between Chris Rodriguez and J.K.
67:16Dobbins. You know, it's a very similar experience from a target share standpoint early down running.
67:21Maybe Rodriguez sees the goal line work similar offense in terms of what we're expecting from them scoring wise.
67:27Because it's an arbitrage off of J.K. Dobbins, right?
67:30So I think Chris Rodriguez is fine late and I have him as a dart throw in the draft guide.
67:36But in best ball, this is a situation where I'm drafting more of those Chris Rodriguez types, which is why I should have probably drafted more J.K.
67:44Dobbins. But, you know, I more Jordan Mason in.
67:47But again, Mason's one of those guys where the markets got into a place where it's become smarter and elevating the upside,
67:54which is why for the summer Travion Henderson was elevated above Ramondre Stevenson, which I think was kind of a sharp thing
68:00to do initially until, you know, people were just completely stubborn with their Travion Henderson take.
68:05And they're not reacting to what's coming out of New England and saying, guys, Ramondre Stevenson's the RB1.
68:11Ramondre Stevenson's the RB1. Like, stop doing this, right?
68:13And so I do think the market's getting sharper and it's something that we have to keep in mind.
68:19But with that being said, what that means is that some of those early down runners are becoming more values late.
68:25And I'm going to be more open then to drafting Jordan Mason types, Chris Rodriguez types in both season long and in best ball.
68:33It's just easier in best ball, which is why I have that 9.3% mark with both Bashaw Tootin and Chris Rodriguez.
68:39So much easier when we don't have to pick.
68:42This is the week that somebody gets tackled within the three yard line and Chris Rodriguez gets the ball.
68:48We don't have to. We don't have to predict that in best ball.
68:52It just happens for us. And look, it might be a pain in the butt with Bashaw Tootin and season long.
68:58It really might be. But I am fine in that part of your draft just shooting for upset.
69:03And I think he's the one that has more upside within that backfield.
69:07But Rich, this was awesome, as always. Another season in the books.
69:11Love doing the show with you. Hopefully we get to do it again next year.
69:16But until then, let everyone know what you're working on, where they can find you, and where they can see your Jets takes, too.
69:23I'm working on keeping this in Southern California and not having to bring it back to New Jersey next summer.
69:29This being his trophy for the audio listeners. For the audio listeners out there, this janky trophy where the top cup is starting to fall off.
69:37Yes. But yes, I am over at Gridiron Gamble.
69:40We will be tackling all the betting angles for the season.
69:43We're actually launching a Survivor-focused show only as well this fall.
69:46So very excited about that. And then, yeah, if you want some Jets takes, if you are a Jets fan out there,
69:53if you like pain, if you are a sports masochist, which is what I am, the Badlands crew, I will feature over there throughout the season as well.
70:02That's at Badlands, like the Bruce Springsteen song. Nice.
70:04As always, check out LateRound.com. Make sure you guys are subscribed to the podcast feed and to the YouTube channel, YouTube.com slash at LateRoundFF.
70:12You know, this is releasing on a Wednesday. By the time next week hits, we are in the season, in-season content.
70:18I'll be doing 15 transactions, 10 trends episode, et cetera, et cetera.
70:22So make sure you're subscribed. Otherwise, everyone, thanks for tuning in.
70:25Whether you're a seasoned NFL fan or new to the game, there's one place to keep up with all of it.
70:31The league's newest podcast, The NFL Report, hosted by me, Andrew Siciliano.
70:35It is your home for everything football, breaking news, expert analysis, game picks, and hear from your favorite players, too.
70:41Join me and an all-star cast of experts for everything you need to know from around the league.
70:46Get new episodes of The NFL Report Monday through Friday, all season long.
70:50Listen to The NFL Report podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
70:56Hey, I'm Mike Yam. And I'm Trevor Sikama. And together, we host the NFL Fantasy Football Show.
71:01Are you ready to dominate your fantasy league this season?
71:04Because if you aren't locked in with us on the NFL Fantasy Football Show, you're already playing from behind.
71:10Whether you're a first-time player or a grizzled vet chasing another championship, we give you the advantage and the confidence you need to make every move count.
71:18Listen to The NFL Fantasy Football Show on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
71:24This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed human.
More episodes from The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast
1123: Week 1 Sleepers
Sep 10, 2026
1122: 10 Trends for Week 1
Sep 9, 2026
1121: 15 Transactions for Week 1
Sep 8, 2026
Late-Round Perspectives: Matthew Berry
Sep 4, 2026
