The Late-Round Fantasy Football PodcastSource
The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast artwork
PodcastFrom The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast

1122: 10 Trends for Week 1

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

16 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 9, 2026
Published
Wed, September 9, 2026
12
Player insights
12
Players mentioned
Topics
Blake CorumBraelon AllenBucky IrvingDrake MayeJayden ReedJaylen WarrenJosh DownsKyren WilliamsLadd McConkeyNico CollinsPatrick MahomesPuka Nacua
Player analysis

Player insights

12

Blake Corum

PositiveUsage2:33

Blake Corum's role expanded significantly, with his rush share rising from 13% in 2024 to 33% in 2025. He outperformed Kyron Williams in adjusted yards after contact per rush (4.1 vs 3.9) and 10-plus yard run rate (16% vs 10%).

Insight page

Braelon Allen

PositiveValue17:18

Despite negative sentiment regarding his ADP, Braelon Allen was efficient last year, ranking 11th in adjusted yards after contact per attempt among 49 RBs with 100+ carries. A better offensive line should improve his yards before contact.

Insight page

Bucky Irving

NegativeUsage15:17

Bucky Irving's snap share dropped from 76% to 55% after returning from injury last season, and he failed to record a goal-line rush. His fantasy value depends on how the Buccaneers divvy up work near the end zone.

Insight page

Drake Maye

PositiveProjection10:52

Despite being the QB2 in PPG last year, Drake Maye struggled with fourth-quarter scoring (2.9 PPG). JJ Zachariason suggests he could maintain fantasy dominance even with efficiency regression if the Patriots face tougher game scripts leading to more passing.

Insight page

Jayden Reed

NegativeRole8:23

Jaden Reed has run only 8 routes out of 12/13 personnel in his career, with about 27% of his routes coming from the outside. JJ Zachariason is watching to see if his deployment shifts in 2025.

Insight page

Jaylen Warren

PositiveUsage14:13

Jalen Warren is a strong candidate for value in the Steelers backfield due to his receiving ability, ranking top-7 in yards per route run among 85 qualified running backs over the last 5 years.

Insight page

Josh Downs

NegativeRole8:23

Josh Downs has run only 33 routes out of 12/13 personnel in his career and rarely lines up outside. JJ Zachariason is monitoring if he sees a shift in deployment this year while competing with Keenan Allen and Alec Pierce.

Insight page

Kyren Williams

NegativeUsage2:05

Kyron Williams saw his rush share drop from 74% in 2024 to 56% last year, with his snap share falling from 87% to 68% and PPR points per game dipping from 17 to 15.5 as Blake Corum earned more work.

Insight page

Ladd McConkey

PositiveBreakout20:19

Ladd McConkey is a breakout candidate under new OC Mike McDaniel, who historically uses fewer 11-personnel sets. McConkey has shown high efficiency (2.52 YPRR) when playing with two or fewer wide receivers on the field.

Insight page

Nico Collins

PositiveBreakout22:24

Nico Collins is a strong target who could 'go absolutely nuts' if Houston shifts to more heavy personnel. He has averaged 3 yards per route run on plays with two or fewer wide receivers over the last two years.

Insight page

Patrick Mahomes

NegativeProjection23:52

Patrick Mahomes has struggled with efficiency, ranking 37th in completion percentage on 20+ air yard throws and 36th on 0-10 yard throws among 40 QBs with 500+ dropbacks over the last three seasons.

Insight page

Puka Nacua

PositiveUsage6:39

Puka Nacua dominated as the WR1 but lacked goal-line usage, ranking behind Malik Washington and Sterling Shepard in Green Zone route share. A small shift in end-zone target ratio compared to Davante Adams could make him even more dominant.

Insight page
Full transcript

Episode Transcript

166
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Guaranteed Human.
0:03The Applebee's 2-for-25 menu offers abundant value, craveable portions, and great variety at an unbeatable price.
0:09Choose one full-size appetizer and two full-size entrees for only $25.
0:13Hurry in before this limited-time offer is gone. Tax, gratuity, beverage, and dessert not included.
0:18What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zacharyarysen in this episode 1122 of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast.
0:24Thanks for tuning in. This 10 trends episode is going to be the shortest one that you get all week, but it's still packed full of information.
0:34As the title suggests, I go through 10 different trends that should help you out with your roster management.
0:40A lot of times the things I talk about on here, they're not immediately actionable like the 15 transactions list.
0:47But they're things that you may want to keep an eye on because they might become super actionable if the trends continue.
0:55Now before we get into that first trend this week, I do want to remind you guys to check out LateRound.com at
1:03some point this week before the games really get going.
1:06We've got brand new offerings this year for members, a much better interface for the weekly and rest of season rankings, new
1:14metrics in the data dump, and so much more.
1:17You can learn more about what it means to be a Late Round Fantasy Football member by just going to Lateround.com.
1:25Now let's get to trend number one. I'm really interested to see what happens with the Rams backfield split this year.
1:32Kyron Williams ended up seeing about 56% of the Rams rushes last year, which was down from the 74% mark that he saw in 2024.
1:41In 2024, his snap share was almost 87%, last year 68%, and his PPR points per game fell from 17 to 15.5.
1:49He was still good last year, but not nearly as dominant.
1:53As we know, a lot of that extra work went to Blake Corum.
1:57Corum saw his snap share rise to about 29% across the entirety of the season, with his rush share going from 13% in 2024 to 33% in 2025.
2:07A split like this is not uncommon in today's NFL, but what I'm interested to see is if the Rams lean into
2:15Corum even more this year than they did last year.
2:18I think it's very possible, because last year, Corum had an adjusted yards after contact per rush of 4.1.
2:25Williams was at 3.9. We saw Corum hit a 10-plus yard run at a 16% rate.
2:31Kyron Williams at a 10% rate. And Corum outperformed him in 20-plus yard run rate as well.
2:37Corum played really well on the ground last year.
2:40Now, we should have a little bit of context here and understand that he didn't have quite the same workload as Kyron
2:48Williams, so maybe general rest had something to do with that.
2:52But it's interesting nonetheless. Where I do think Kyron will still win out is through the air.
2:58Even last year, we're talking about a 53% route share for Williams versus a 17% route share for Corum.
3:04And Corum had a pretty pathetic .34 yards per out run.
3:08Kyron Williams, .84. This is all to say that yes, Kyron Williams did indeed see a dip in production last year, with Corum digging into his workload more.
3:18And given Blake Corum's ground game work, I do wonder if he sees even more work this year than he did last year.
3:26One area where Williams is probably safe though is as a receiver.
3:30The problem is that this McVay offense has traditionally not been friendly for running back targets.
3:36So that may or may not be that big of a boost for Williams as it would be in another offense.
3:43I'm not moving either player right now. If I have one of them, I'm just holding.
3:49This is not a transaction. I'm just really anxious to see how this Rams backfield ends up being split.
3:56Because things have been trending away from Kyron Williams.
3:59Sticking with the Rams, one of the weirder things about fantasy football last year was that Puka Nakua dominated.
4:06He was the wide receiver one. But he wasn't really used that close to the end zone.
4:12Nakua ranked behind players like Malik Washington and Sterling Shepard last year and Green Zone Route Share.
4:18Which is route share on dropbacks within the opponent's 10-yard line.
4:22The Rams use a lot of heavy personnel. And Devontae Adams, he was their main go-to wide receiver at the goal line last year.
4:30Which is why he finished with 28 end zone targets to Nakua's 6.
4:35Adams had 14 touchdowns on targets that came to him while in the end zone.
4:40Nakua had only 3. This is partially a load management thing for Puka.
4:45Because he's borderline reckless with his body when he's playing.
4:48But even a small shift in that ratio between himself and Devontae Adams can go a seriously long way for Nakua being
4:56even more dominant in fantasy football year over year.
4:59Which is crazy to even imagine. Another thing I'm looking forward to seeing this year is how the Packers and Colts end
5:07up deploying Josh Downs and Jaden Reed. Get this, both players entered the NFL in 2023.
5:12So they played 3 seasons in the league. Jaden Reed has run just 8 routes out of 12 and 13 personnel throughout his career.
5:21Downs has only run 33. Now Reed's run roughly 27% of his routes from the outside.
5:27It's not like he's never lined up there. It's just that it's come in 11 personnel mostly.
5:33And for Josh Downs, his split is even more intense.
5:36He's played even less on the outside. It's all interesting to me because there's at least some chance we see a shift with those players this year.
5:46Downs is competing with an age Keenan Allen and Alec Pierce who's coming off that ankle injury.
5:52The Packers want Matthew Golden to be that primary perimeter guy.
5:55He'll get every shot to do so with Christian Watson.
5:59But what happens if his 2025 just moves right into 2026 where it just wasn't that effective?
6:05It's all something I'm going to be monitoring very closely.
6:09The Patriots finished 2025 with a plays run while trailing rate of just 27.6%.
6:13That was a bottom 20 rate since 2016 and it was technically the lowest in football last year.
6:20New England's 2024 to 2025 swing and percentage of plays run while trailing was the fourth biggest shift that we've seen over the last 10 years.
6:29That's not that surprising though. They went from a team with very little hope to AFC champions in one season.
6:36The thing is those numbers tend to regress. New England faced a very easy schedule last year when looking at opponent win percentage.
6:44So things will naturally just be tougher this year.
6:47And if they're trailing more that means more passing and more passing volume overall.
6:52It's interesting. Drake May was the number two quarterback in points per game last year.
6:58But he averages 2.9 fourth quarter points per game.
7:01That ranked outside the top 30 at the position.
7:04For context, the QB won last year, Josh Allen.
7:07He averaged over 8.5 points per game in the fourth quarter.
7:11Matthew Stafford, the QB 3, was at 5.1. Now obviously part of the reason for this is May himself.
7:18So it's not as simple as, Drake May will score 4 more points per game this year because of his lack of fourth quarter scoring last year.
7:27They were in those positions largely because of Drake May.
7:31But that's what makes the bet on May a little bit easier this year.
7:36He's more than likely going to regress a bit on the efficiency front.
7:40Even with improved pass catchers. But he could hypothetically maintain fantasy dominance with fewer positive game scripts.
7:46If the efficiency drops, he'll more than likely be relevant in fantasy throughout the entirety of games.
7:52Not just in the beginning. In 2025, the Steelers targeted the running back position at the second highest rate in football.
8:00In 2024, the Jets ranked 7th in running back target share.
8:04You can probably see where I'm going with this.
8:07Over the last two seasons, among 32 quarterbacks with 500 or more dropbacks, only Tua Tungavailoa, Russell Wilson, and Mack Jones have
8:15targeted the running back position at a higher rate than Aaron Rodgers has.
8:19We have a lot of debate about who's the RB1 in the backfield, but a lot of times, people treat that more like a depth chart.
8:28I really don't care what a depth chart says.
8:31Depth charts are not scoring fantasy points. The RB1 on one team depth chart can see a massively different workload than the RB1 on another.
8:40In the case of Pittsburgh, whoever sees more work through the air has a chance to be the most valuable player in that backfield.
8:49Or probably will be the most valuable player in that backfield.
8:53Regardless of the depth chart. And the market's been on that with Jalen Warren, who's been top 7 in yards per route
9:00run among 85 qualified running backs over the last 5 years.
9:04This isn't even an anti-Rico Dowdle trend, just for the record.
9:08This is mostly just to say that I think both will be involved in this offense, given Aaron Rodgers' tendencies.
9:15A big lower key storyline for me this week is Bucky Irving's workload.
9:20We saw him with an awesome workload to start last season before his injury, then when he returned, things changed a little bit.
9:28From week 1 through week 3, he was injured in week 4, we'll remove that game from our sample.
9:35Bucky Irving saw a 76% snap rate and 15 expected fantasy points per game.
9:40When he returned in week 13, through the end of the fantasy season, that snap share fell to 55%.
9:46His expected fantasy points per game went from 15 to 11.3.
9:50Now part of the problem with Irving is that he failed to see a goal line rush last year.
9:57Sean Tucker started playing that role more down the stretch, and then Rashad White, he had 40% of the team's goal line rushes.
10:05Irving didn't have any. And even when you look within the 10 yard line, his rush share was only 20%.
10:12Meanwhile, the Bucks added Kenneth Gainwell to compliment Irving as a receiver.
10:16Sean Tucker's status is up in the air apparently for week 1.
10:21So I would expect Irving to see that work if Tucker's out.
10:25But if Tucker's in, that's where I'm really interested to see how the Bucks divvy up their work close to the end zone.
10:33This could be the reason that Bucky Irving either lives up to ADP or doesn't.
10:38There's definitely a sentiment out there that Amari and Hampton isn't nearly as good as his ADP indicated this summer.
10:45And while I do think that we have to project a lot for Amari and Hampton, clearly situation was a huge part of his ADP.
10:54But I really don't think the metrics say that Amari and Hampton was like bad or even an average player last year.
11:02Last season, Hampton ranked 11th out of 49 running backs with 100 or more carries and adjusted yards after contact per attempt.
11:10He was 21st, so above average in success rate.
11:13I think there was room for him to do more on the ground, but the offensive line just didn't allow for it.
11:21He ranked 47th out of those 49 running backs and adjusted yards before contact per attempt.
11:26Meaning he was doing a lot after he was touched, but he didn't get a lot of room on each carry.
11:34Now that we've got a new offensive coordinator and a healthier offensive line, I'm excited to see what Hampton can do in year 2.
11:42That yards before contact number should be much improved year over year.
11:46Speaking of the Chargers, Mike McDaniel, he's that new offensive coordinator, as we all know.
11:52During his 4 years in Miami, the Dolphins ran nearly 55% of their plays with 2 or fewer wide receivers on the field.
12:00They didn't run 11 personnel at a very high rate at all.
12:04When that's the case, the wide receivers who are actually on the field tend to see better efficiency metrics.
12:11That's because they're competing with fewer capable pass catchers.
12:14Oftentimes, instead of a wide receiver, it's either another tight end or it's a fullback.
12:19This could be really big for Ladd McConkie this year.
12:23Last season, McConkie ranked 76th in routes run with 2 or fewer wide receivers on the field.
12:29But on those plays over the last 2 seasons, he's seen a 2.52 yards per route run rate.
12:35Significantly higher than his 1.83 yards per route run rate with 3 or more wide outs on the field.
12:42This is a key reason that we could see a big Ladd McConkie season.
12:47Now I'm going to shift to another team, but within this same topic.
12:51Let's talk about the Houston Texans. Jaden Higgins going down sucks for fantasy football on a lot of levels.
12:58He was going to be their clear number 2.
13:01He had a really promising camp. There was a lot to like.
13:05But one other reason to have been in on Higgins is what I just talked about with Ladd McConkie.
13:12The Texans actually ranked 1st in the league in plays with 3 or more wide receivers in the field last year.
13:20There's been a lot of talk about Houston running more 12-13 personnel.
13:24That could be big because they ran out of heavy at the 2nd lowest rate in the league last year.
13:31Now this obviously could be big for someone like Kayshaun Booty if he ends up winning that wide receiver 2 role on the outside.
13:39But the real winner here, let's just be real, it's Nico Collins.
13:44Collins really flew under the radar during draft season because there were just sexier round 2-3 turn picks for most people.
13:51Whether it be Malik Neighbors or Chris Alave without Jordan Tyson.
13:55But I'm pretty bullish on Collins this year. I actually wouldn't be surprised if he goes absolutely nuts.
14:01On plays over the last 2 years with 2 or fewer wide receivers on the field, Nico Collins has averaged 3 yards per route run.
14:10Meanwhile, he's ranked 49th in routes run in that kind of environment.
14:14He's one spot ahead of Calvin Austin and one behind Ricky Pearsall.
14:18If we see fewer wide outs on the field this year for Houston, which I think we will, I'd expect Nico Collins
14:26to really, really thrive in fantasy football. The last trend this week is about Patrick Mahomes.
14:32Over the last 3 seasons, there have been 40 quarterbacks with 500 or more dropbacks.
14:37Among those quarterbacks, Patrick Mahomes ranks 27th in percentage of pass attempts that traveled 20 or more air yards.
14:44So he's been below average in just 20 plus air yard rate.
14:48But get this, on those throws, on those throws that travel 20 or more air yards, he ranks 37th out of those 40 quarterbacks in completion percentage.
14:58And the wild part is that he's been 36th in completion percentage on throws that travel 0 to 10 air yards.
15:05I think we're all crossing our fingers that the Kenneth Walker move is going to force the Chiefs to be a little
15:13bit more balanced, which will force teams to stop playing too high against them so much.
15:18But there's no doubt about it. Patrick Mahomes has not been Patrick Mahomes over the last few years.
15:25That's it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening.
15:29If you yet subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast, make sure you are budgeting for it.
15:36Pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. And definitely follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at LateRoundQB.
15:42Thanks for listening, everyone. I'll be back in your ears tomorrow with the weekly Sleepers episode.
15:48What does Drew Barrymore reach for at home? A Minky Couture blanket, the ultra-soft throw that stops you mid-sentence.
15:55Featured on her show and loved in real life, Minky Couture wraps you in premium plush fabric, signature stretch, and award-winning craftsmanship.
16:03The blanket that turns every couch into your favorite seat in the house.
16:07Drew Barrymore's blanket, only at Minky Couture. Shop now at minkycouture.com.
16:11That's Minky, M-I-N-K-Y, couture, C-O-U-T-U-R-E dot com. This is an iHeart Podcast.
16:15Guaranteed Human.

More episodes from The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast

6