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PodcastFrom The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast

1123: Week 1 Sleepers

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

20 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 10, 2026
Published
Thu, September 10, 2026
16
Player insights
16
Players mentioned
Topics
Baker MayfieldCade OttonChris RodriguezDalton SchultzDeebo SamuelDylan SampsonGeno SmithJalen CokerJuwan JohnsonKeaton MitchellKenneth GainwellMalik WillisMatthew GoldenMichael Mayer
Player analysis

Player insights

16

Baker Mayfield

NegativeProjection3:37

JJ Zachariason is less bullish than consensus on Mayfield's Week 1 matchup due to an improved Cincinnati defense and secondary, though the strong game environment (23.5 implied total, 50+ game total) and an 8th-ranked matchup per adjusted points allowed suggest he should be fine.

Insight page

Cade Otton

PositiveUsage26:50

Otten is a streaming option against the Bengals, who are ranked as the second-best matchup for fantasy tight ends; he maintains a high route share in the Buccaneers' offense.

Insight page

Chris Rodriguez

PositiveRole6:48

Zachariason expects a 50-50 or 60-40 backfield split for the Jaguars, making Rodriguez a potential sleeper as a big favorite against the Browns; he offers workload capacity to drain the clock, despite his yards-after-contact efficiency being situationally adjusted.

Insight page

Dalton Schultz

PositiveProjection21:47

Schultz is a safe PPR play against the Bills; he benefits from the Texans' increased 12-personnel usage and his consistent target share from last season.

Insight page

Deebo Samuel

NegativeRole19:08

Samuel is a speculative play who may see a low-aDOT role to avoid Rams pressure; he is expected to operate as the 49ers' WR2.

Insight page

Dylan Sampson

PositiveUsage23:52

Sampson is a deep-league monitor as a potential pass-catching back for the Browns, especially if a negative game script hits against the Jaguars.

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Geno Smith

NegativeProjection22:29

Smith is a viable Superflex option against the Titans, who rank 30th in PFF's secondary rankings, despite his poor fantasy points per dropback last year.

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Jalen Coker

PositiveUsage8:50

Coker is a sleeper against the Bears due to expected negative game script; he ranked 15th in PPR points per route run against man coverage last year, and Chicago plays man at a high rate.

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Juwan Johnson

PositiveProjection10:41

Johnson is a strong tight end play in a high-scoring Saints-Lions environment; he was highly efficient in Tyler Shuck's starts last year, ranking among the top tight ends in yards per route run and PPR points per route run from Week 8-17.

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Keaton Mitchell

PositiveUsage15:35

Mitchell is an intriguing dart throw as he returns from injury; the Chargers are expected to manufacture touches for him due to his elite speed and yards-per-rush efficiency.

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Kenneth Gainwell

PositiveUsage4:52

Gainwell is a potential sleeper if the Buccaneers face a negative game script against the Bengals, as he ranked 7th among RBs in route share when trailing by a touchdown or more last year; he could see increased pass-catching work if Sean Tucker is limited.

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Malik Willis

PositiveProjection13:31

Willis is a sleeper due to his rushing profile, which historically leads to QB1 fantasy finishes; he faces a bottom-tier Raiders secondary, making him a strong streaming option.

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Matthew Golden

PositiveRole8:08

Zachariason expects Golden to operate as a perimeter player in Green Bay's 11-personnel sets, projecting him for volume against a Vikings secondary ranked 22nd by PFF.

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Michael Mayer

PositiveProjection27:24

Mayer is a great play against the Dolphins; he ranks 6th in targets per route run among tight ends and plays in a tight-end-friendly offense.

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Terrance Ferguson

PositiveSleeper20:25

Ferguson is a dart-throw sleeper who may see significant slot usage for the Rams; he has shown high-aDOT potential and hit double-digit PPR points in high-route-share games.

Insight page

Tre Tucker

PositiveRole18:27

Tucker is expected to lead Raiders WRs in routes run; he is a strong play against the Dolphins' league-worst secondary, especially with Brock Bowers' injury news.

Insight page
Full transcript

Episode Transcript

217
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. With help from Lowe's, official partner of the NFL.
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0:12Hurry in before this limited time offer is gone.
0:15Tax, gratuity, beverage and dessert not included. This is the Late-Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zacharyarysen.
0:20What's up everyone? It's JJ Zachariasen. This episode 11-23 of the Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast.
0:25Thanks for tuning in. I'll be doing this Sleepers episode every single week, and I have to be upfront.
0:31This is not a start-sit show. Instead, I'm just trying to give you guys some players who are readily available on the
0:38waiver wire who you might want to consider starting in that given week.
0:43If I call a player out on this show, it doesn't mean that you're starting him no matter what.
0:49It just means that I like his matchup, I like his situation, maybe I like the player himself, and I could see
0:56him coming through with a usable day. But in the end, we're talking about lower-tiered players on this episode every single week.
1:03I'm happy to just hit on like 30% of them.
1:06Most of them will not hit. Now, I'll do what I did last year and bucket players into three categories.
1:13Players rostered in 50-80% of Yahoo! Leagues, players rostered in 20-50% of them, and then players rostered in fewer than 20% of them.
1:20As you'd guess, that last category won't see a ton of hits this year.
1:25But these ranges of roster exposure allow for everyone to get a little bit of something from this episode.
1:31We'll get to that first group in just a second.
1:34First, I do want to remind you once again to check out LATEROUND.com.
1:38We've got brand new offerings this year for members.
1:41We have a much better interface for weekly and rest-of-season rankings, new metrics in the data dump, and so much more.
1:48You can learn more about it and what it means to be a LATEROUND Fantasy Football member by just heading to LATEROUND.com.
1:55Now let's get to these sleepers. Week 1 is always one of the toughest sleeper shows because we just don't have that
2:02much information on how these teams are going to perform.
2:06How they're going to play. As the season goes on, this show should get better and better.
2:11That's the goal at least. We'll kick things off by looking at players rostered in 50-80% of Yahoo!
2:17Leagues, and we'll start at quarterback with Baker Mayfield.
2:20Now I'm probably a little bit less bullish about this matchup for Mayfield versus Consensus.
2:25Mostly because I think Cincinnati's defense got better compared to last year, and their secondary in particular is not that bad.
2:32DJ Turner is legit. But this game environment should be really strong.
2:36The Bucs have a 23.5 point implied team total, and the game total is over 50 points.
2:41Our adjusted points allowed numbers have this as the 8th best matchup for Baker.
2:46So he should be fine. Just don't be surprised if Cincinnati's defense is better this year than last year.
2:52Now in that same game, I'm intrigued by Kenny Gainwell.
2:55The Bengals are 3.5 point favorites, so a negative game script is possible for Tampa Bay.
3:00Sean Tucker's also iffy for that game. And even though he's not going to play a massive role this year, that does
3:07limit the Bucs backfield to basically two players. If that negative game script hits, it would make sense for Gainwell to see more work as a pass catcher.
3:16Last year with Pittsburgh, Gainwell ranked 7th among running backs in route share when the team was trailing by a touchdown or more.
3:24And what's interesting is that Rashad White ranked 8th within that metric, obviously Rashad White having played for the Buccaneers.
3:30When specifically looking at the 4th quarter, so when the team is definitely trailing and they're in comeback mode, White had the 5th highest route share.
3:39Gainwell, he ranked 9th. This is all to say that Gainwell could just naturally get some work, but maybe there's a slight
3:46boost if the game script goes a certain way.
3:49But it is week 1. Game script is even more difficult to project than usual, just to be clear.
3:55Speaking of game script, I think one game that we probably feel best about this week is Jacksonville against Cleveland.
4:02The Jags are 7.5 point favorites, which could lead to a more ground and pound approach overall for their offense.
4:08And that means both Bashal Tootin and Chris Rodriguez might be useful, specifically for this episode, Chris Rodriguez.
4:14Now we still don't know how this backfield is going to be split, but my guess is that we get close to
4:21a 50-50, maybe 60-40 split to start the season.
4:24Tootin has more pass catching upside given Rodriguez's history, but that may not matter that much in this matchup.
4:30Rodriguez was second in the NFL in yards after contact per attempt last year, though that was knocked down to 14th or so when adjusted for situation.
4:39Even still, he's got the ability to handle a big workload and help drain clock.
4:44And that could lead to fantasy production as big favorites against the Browns.
4:48Moving to wide receiver, I'm expecting Matthew Golden to be out there in two wide receiver sets for Green Bay right away.
4:55He's still under that 80% rostered mark too. In the preseason, Jaden Reed ran all of his routes with Jordan Love out of the slot.
5:03Golden was 90% out wide. I think Green Bay is going to lean into 11 personnel quite a bit given their personnel, given their build.
5:11But they're going to give Golden every opportunity to be that perimeter player for them.
5:16So this is really just a potential volume play for week one.
5:20The Packers get the Vikings in the game with an okay enough total, and it's being played indoors.
5:26PFF has Minnesota's secondary ranked 22nd entering the season.
5:29So I think Golden works in this tier. I also like Jalen Coker this week.
5:34The Panthers are home underdogs against the Bears, and Chicago's got one of the better offenses in football.
5:40Carolina's going to have to keep pace. They also are facing a Bears secondary that ranks as average according to PFF.
5:46And for what it's worth, Chicago played man at the 11th highest rate last year.
5:51Among wide receivers with 200 or more routes run last season, Jalen Coker was 15th in PPR points per route run against man defense.
5:59The Panthers will have to keep pace, like I said.
6:02That could mean a little bit extra volume for Jalen Coker.
6:06For similar negative game script reasons, I'm excited to see what Casey Concepcion is going to do against the Jags this week.
6:13My guess is that Cleveland's going to do a lot to try to get him the ball.
6:19He lined up all over the field throughout his time in college, and they've talked about his versatility all camp long.
6:25So that call out is mostly the fact that Cleveland should see a negative game script against Jacksonville, and even if they
6:32want to run the rock, they might not be able to.
6:36And Concepcion could benefit as a result. I've got one tight end in this tier.
6:41It's Jawan Johnson. The Saints-Lions game could be fireworks offensively.
6:44And Johnson was kind of sweet last year when Tyler Shuck was under center.
6:49Johnson had a solid 1.71 yards per route run rate last year, but it was 1.91 in Tyler Shuck starts.
6:55From week 8 through week 17, only George Kittle, Colson Loveland, and Trey McBride had a higher yards per route run rate at tight end.
7:03And Johnson's .41 PPR points per route run over that stretch was 8th best at tight end.
7:09It trailed only George Kittle, Harold Fannin, Trey McBride, Brock Bowers, Colson Loveland, Kyle Pitts, and Dallas Goddard.
7:15Like I said, this environment looks strong, even if we have Detroit entering the season as a slightly below average matchup for tight ends.
7:22This next tier of players consists of guys rostered in 20-50% of Yahoo!
7:27Leagues, and we'll start with Jawan Johnson's quarterback, Tyler Shuck.
7:30Shuck is playing in this Kellanmore offense that ranked in the top 10 in plays run per game every year that he was offensive coordinator.
7:38Last year with the Saints, they ranked 11th, and that was on a team with inexperienced quarterback play and not a lot of efficiency.
7:46But Shuck turned it on down the stretch last year.
7:49He averaged 15.8 PPR points per game in his starts, but it was 19.6 over his final 6 games.
7:55He can give you that rushing juice, and that's always what we're looking for.
8:00Now the Saints get the Lions in a game with a 49.5 point total, and Detroit's secondary is a below average one.
8:07It's a good spot for Tyler Shuck. I also don't mind Malik Willis.
8:11I've said it so many times on the show by now, but players with his potential rushing profile almost always finish as QB1s in fantasy.
8:19Even Justin Fields and Anthony Richardson have been top 8 in fantasy points per dropback over the last handful of seasons.
8:26They just couldn't hold on to their job. And Malik Willis probably won't lose his job in one game.
8:32They get the Raiders this week, and the Raiders have a bottom-tiered secondary.
8:37So I think Malik Willis should be able to produce.
8:40I think there's a real chance that Tyler Algier gets game-scripted out this week.
8:44It's a possibility. But with Jeremiah Love maybe not totally being 100%, the Cardinals don't have that much to rely on in their backfield.
8:52But yeah, the game-script aspect against the Chargers is very scary.
8:56They're the biggest favorites on this week's slate, so the Cardinals are the biggest underdogs.
9:01And Algier ranked 75th last year in route share while trailing by 7 or more points.
9:06Now obviously that wasn't a backfield with Bijan Robinson.
9:09But we've always seen Algier as more of a bruiser.
9:12Not quite as much as a pass catcher. Even still, when you're this deep in the free agency pool, it's tough to find guaranteed volume.
9:20And I do think that Algier could get double-digit touches in this game.
9:24And it's an average, just below-average matchup according to late-round numbers.
9:28Now in that same game and at that same position, as long as he's healthy, you could look at Keaton Mitchell.
9:35Mitchell's practicing. I think he's trending towards playing at this point.
9:38And not only could the game flow be nice for the Chargers' backfield, but I think we're going to see a lot
9:45of forced, manufactured touches for Keaton Mitchell every single week.
9:49We kind of got a glimpse of that in the preseason.
9:52Mitchell ran three of his six routes out of the slot.
9:56Now, that's not going to translate to the season.
9:59He's not going to have a 50% slot rate.
10:02That's not why I'm calling this out. I'm just saying that the Chargers were clearly testing things out.
10:07And they were testing things out with the fastest running back in the game, who's second in the NFL in yards per
10:15rush since entering the league among 87 runners with 100 or more carries.
10:19We know Mike McDaniel loves speed. And we know that he can scheme his guys into easy touches.
10:25So as a dart throw, I think Mitchell's intriguing this week.
10:28I talked about Tajay Spears on the 15 Transaction Show earlier in the week.
10:33And while I do think this week against the Jets sets up more as like a Tony Pollard game, I also think
10:40there's a chance that this backfield is just split more than we anticipate.
10:44Like I said, in the preseason, Spears played with Cam Ward just as much as Tony Pollard did, even on early downs.
10:51But Spears has more to win in fantasy if the game script ever does go south.
10:56It's a good matchup on paper. And like I said, I do like Tony Pollard more this week.
11:02But keep an eye on Tajay Spears. At wide receiver, what about Trey Tucker?
11:07I think he's going to start the season running the most routes for the Raiders at wide receiver.
11:13And the Raiders are more than likely going to play out of 12 personnel.
11:17A lot. He saw his yards per route run last year go from 1.21 to 1.47 when in situations with two or fewer wide receivers on the field.
11:26The Raiders get a Miami team that's essentially just like actively tanking.
11:30According to PFF's rankings, no team has a worse secondary entering the season than the Miami Dolphins.
11:36So if Tucker is running a good number of routes, we should expect him to get some fantasy production.
11:42Now this next one's kind of ugly, but I'm curious to see what happens with Debo Samuel this week in Australia.
11:49The Rams will be able to generate pressure this year.
11:52And we've seen Debo play more of that low average depth of target role for the 49ers in the past.
11:58So I can see a scenario where they're getting the ball out quick in order to avoid that pressure.
12:05And on a team that might not run a ton of 11 personnel, I do expect Debo Samuel to be their wide receiver too.
12:12To be out there ahead of Dajon Stribling. So there is at least a little bit of intrigue there.
12:19At tight end in this tier, I've got two guys.
12:22One of them is in that same game. It's Terrence Ferguson.
12:25Shocker. This is mostly a dart throw though. We still don't know exactly how they're going to deploy Ferguson.
12:32But without a real slot player on that team, I would not be surprised if they use him a lot there right away.
12:39And it's a team in the Rams that will more than likely rank towards the top of the league this year in heavy personnel use.
12:47Last year, Ferguson had an average up to target over 17 yards.
12:51And he hit 12 PPR points in two of his top three route share games.
12:56I hope you don't have to dig this deep for week one, but he is an option.
13:01If you want to play it a little bit safer, you could go to Dalton Schultz.
13:07I mentioned it on the 10 trends episode yesterday, but I'm anticipating the Texans playing out of more 12 personnel this year.
13:14But not only that, Schultz was 16th in route share last year and 10th in target share.
13:19We also don't even know how they're going to deploy Kayshawn Booty or that wide receiver too on the team.
13:26Just given he just got there. In a game against the Bills that's indoors and where the Texans will have to keep
13:33pace, which isn't the case all the time given that defense.
13:36Schultz could PPR scam his way into a top 12 week.
13:40We're now looking at players rostered in fewer than 20% of Yahoo League, so we're digging very deep here.
13:46At quarterback, Geno Smith is one. He's a quarterback.
13:49But I do think he's viable against the Titans this week, at least more in a super flex format.
13:55The Titans rank 30th in PFF's preseason secondary rankings.
13:58And yes, Geno was second to last in 2025 in fantasy points per drop back.
14:03Not great. But he's closer to just below average in that statistic when you look at his two seasons prior.
14:10And he's at least got some dynamic weapons and a good offensive line in front of him this year.
14:16Or at least a better offensive line. I'm just not that scared of this Titans matchup in general.
14:22Though I will say, a 19 point implied team total, that's very, very scary for the New York Jets.
14:28Now at running back, I only have one of them for you.
14:32It's Dylan Sampson. We have no idea how the Browns are going to divvy up that backfield.
14:37Especially if a negative game script hits. But we do know that Todd Munkin has historically split up that pass catching role.
14:44And Sampson, he beat out Quinshawn Judkins last year in fourth quarter route share by about 10 percentage points.
14:51Now we talked about this possible game script earlier.
14:53They get Jacksonville. That may lead to more Dylan Sampson.
14:57I cannot imagine that you're digging this deep. But hey, it's a fun little call out to monitor.
15:03At wide receiver in this tier, I actually do like Dontavian Wicks this week.
15:07Makai Lemon missed a lot of camp. He struggled in the preseason.
15:11And since it's early in the season, I'm expecting Wicks to run as Philly's number two wide receiver.
15:17And that's against a bottom five secondary in Washington.
15:20And Philly also has a 25 point implied team total.
15:23That's one of the higher marks you're going to find across the league this week.
15:28So I don't mind Wicks at all as a dart throw.
15:31And then another one to shout out here, another 15 transactions player, Devon Vele.
15:36There's a lot to like about this matchup against Detroit.
15:39There's a decent game total, a secondary that's below average, and an opposing offense where the Saints will have to keep pace.
15:46As I said on that show, on the 15 transactions show, Devon Vele actually had pretty decent per route run numbers last year after Rashid Shahid was traded.
15:55And he's probably going to run as the clear number two wide receiver behind Chris Alave this week.
16:01He's still out there in well over 95% of leagues.
16:05He definitely qualifies for this list. And then at tight end, I want to shout out Cade Otten.
16:10Good old cardio Cade. Otten had the fourth highest route share among all tight ends last season.
16:16And given their depth chart, he's probably in store for a lot of work again.
16:21Now, it hasn't translated to amazing production. But remember how bad Cincinnati was last year against tight ends?
16:27It may not totally translate year over year. But our numbers currently have Cincinnati as the second best matchup for fantasy tight ends.
16:34It's a game we want to target this week.
16:37So throwing the dart Otten's way makes sense. And then the other tight end to call out here, it's a pretty obvious one.
16:44It's Michael Mayer. Now, I didn't mention the Brock Bowers injury earlier when talking about Trey Tucker because I had recorded that before the injury news dropped.
16:53Before we learned that he had this procedure. But it makes Tucker an even better play too.
16:59But Michael Mayer is a very capable tight end.
17:02We saw him with a top 20 yards per out run rate last year in a bad offense.
17:08And he actually ranks sixth in the NFL in targets per out run.
17:12That's among tight ends. It's a tight end friendly offense.
17:15And they're facing a Dolphins team that's very beatable defensively.
17:18I think Michael Mayer is a great play. As for streaming defenses this week, I mentioned on the 15 transactions episode, it's
17:25tough to find good options in week one. And that's still very much true.
17:30I don't mind Dallas against the Giants. I don't mind the Bills against the Texans, given that offensive line could still be a problem this year for Houston.
17:39And if you want, you could just roll with the Jets and the Titans.
17:44Both of them in that game. It's a tough week for streaming though.
17:48It'll be better next week. And speaking of that, if you tune into the late round fantasy football show, I do a
17:55look ahead waiver wire segment every week. That's live on YouTube every Friday at 1 p.m.
18:00Eastern. And it'll hit your podcast feeds on Saturday morning.
18:03That's it for today's show though. Thanks to all of you for listening.
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