The Show: Injury News, Early Waiver Wire Adds, and More
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 4 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 3, 2026
Published
Thu, September 3, 2026
23
Player insights
21
Players mentioned
Topics
Chris BellMalik NabersAlec PierceChris GodwinChuba HubbardD.J. MooreD'Andre SwiftGeorge KittleJake FergusonJavonte WilliamsJonah ColemanJonathon BrooksJosh DownsJosh Jacobs
Player analysis
Player insights
Alec Pierce
PositiveValue40:05
JJ Zachariason is buying more into Alec Pierce than previously, noting that he is falling in drafts and belongs in the same tier as other late-round wide receivers like Cortland Sutton and Michael Wilson. He views Pierce as a potential value.
Insight pageChris Bell
PositiveSleeper54:52
Chris Bell is described as an intriguing day-two wide receiver with a strong production profile, including an 86th percentile contested catch rate. Despite injury recovery concerns, he is a viable stash given the open depth chart in Miami.
Insight pagePositiveSleeper55:33
JJ Zachariason likes Chris Bell as a prospect, citing his strong analytical profile (84th percentile target share) and potential to emerge in the Dolphins' offense. He recommends stashing him in deep leagues.
Insight pageChris Godwin
PositiveRole35:13
JJ Zachariason is high on Chris Godwin, noting his strong historical production without Mike Evans and his status as a high-rostered player in best ball. Godwin's value increases further if Emeka Ibuka or Jalen McMillan miss time due to injury.
Insight pageChuba Hubbard
PositiveValue16:20
Chuba Hubbard is an undervalued asset in best ball drafts, currently available in the 11th round. Despite a poor receiving profile and lack of explosive runs last year, he is expected to see significant work in the Panthers' offense, especially while Jonathan Brooks deals with injury soreness.
Insight pageD.J. Moore
NegativeBust63:42
JJ Zachariason is a soft fade on DJ Moore, citing historical data showing that wide receivers over 28 with back-to-back seasons of sub-1.5 to 1.7 yards per route run rarely produce league-winning fantasy numbers.
Insight pageD'Andre Swift
NegativeValue49:02
JJ Zachariason notes that DeAndre Swift's ADP is rising into the fourth round due to injury news surrounding his teammates, but he personally would not pay that high of a price given the expected backfield split.
Insight pageGeorge Kittle
PositiveInjury17:43
George Kittle is trending toward playing in Week 1 and is traveling with the team. While he may not be at 100%, he remains a start-worthy tight end. JJ Zachariason has been aggressive in drafting him, noting that his Achilles injury was not the 'bad kind' according to medical reports.
Insight pageJake Ferguson
NegativeProjection62:00
JJ Zachariason notes that Jake Ferguson lacks top-three fantasy upside unless an injury occurs to teammates, similar to the outlook for Terrence Ferguson.
Insight pageJavonte Williams
NegativeRole52:11
JJ Zachariason views the addition of Emari Demercado as a potential threat to Javonte Williams, noting that Williams has a questionable receiving profile and is in a fragile situation.
Insight pageJonah Coleman
PositiveBreakout46:12
Jonah Coleman is highlighted as a high-upside stash with an elite production profile, including 89th percentile marks in avoided tackles and yards after contact per attempt. While he lacks elite explosive speed, his do-it-all skill set makes him a strong long-term stash in Denver's backfield.
Insight pageJonathon Brooks
NegativeInjury15:40
Jonathan Brooks is dealing with 'soreness' and working with trainers, which is concerning given his injury history. While JJ Zachariason still prefers him over Chuba Hubbard for his upside and receiving profile, the ADP gap between the two has been too wide, and they should likely meet in the middle.
Insight pageJosh Downs
PositiveRole42:08
JJ Zachariason is bullish on Josh Downs, citing Dan Graziano's prediction that Downs could emerge as the Colts' top wide receiver. Zachariason notes he has been targeting Downs all summer.
Insight pageJosh Jacobs
NegativeInjury7:14
Josh Jacobs was placed on the commissioner's exempt list, creating significant uncertainty regarding his availability. JJ Zachariason notes that the NFL likely has damning information, and there is a non-zero chance he does not play football again. If suspended, games missed on the exempt list count toward the total suspension duration.
Insight pageKeenan Allen
NegativeBust38:51
JJ Zachariason expresses concern regarding Keenan Allen's recent DUI arrest, noting that while a suspension might not happen this year, the situation adds uncertainty. He prefers to avoid Allen in managed leagues, viewing him more as a best ball option.
Insight pageKenyon Sadiq
PositiveSleeper59:06
Kenyon Sadiq is an elite athlete and round-one tight end who is currently undervalued in fantasy. Despite injury concerns, he is a strong stash candidate in a tight-end-friendly offense, possessing an above-average age-adjusted production profile.
Insight pageLuther Burden
PositiveValue43:59
JJ Zachariason defends Luther Burden's ADP, arguing that he is not being drafted as high as some analysts claim and that he belongs in his current tier. He encourages drafting Burden despite the anti-hype.
Insight pageMalik Davis
NegativeValue49:16
Malik Davis is suggested as a deep-league stash because he is the number two back in a high-powered offense. JJ Zachariason notes that while he is not a primary target, he is a reasonable handcuff to hold if a roster spot is available.
Insight pageMalik Nabers
NegativeInjury19:29
Malik Nabers is dealing with soreness, creating concern about his availability for Week 1. While he is still worth drafting at the 2/3 turn, his ADP should theoretically lower. He remains in the same tier as Chris Olave and Nico Collins, and his absence is easier to manage early in the season due to fresh benches and no bye weeks.
Insight pagePositiveValue33:48
JJ Zachariason suggests drafting Malik Nabers at the 2/3 turn despite potential week one injury concerns, noting that early-season roster management is easier due to fewer injuries and no bye weeks.
Insight pageMalik Willis
PositiveProjection41:52
JJ Zachariason highlights Malik Willis as a viable waiver wire stash with significant upside, citing his 11.8 rushing points per game last year and 0.88 fantasy points per drop back over the last two seasons. Despite uncertainty regarding his passing ability, he is considered a fringe top-15 quarterback for Week 1 against the Raiders.
Insight pageMarShawn Lloyd
PositiveRole7:21
Marshawn Lloyd is elevated by the Josh Jacobs situation; he is a fringe top-20 running back if Jacobs is out for the year. Lloyd possesses a 90th percentile avoided tackles per attempt rate and 84th percentile explosive run rate, paired with 4.46 speed at 220 pounds. He is expected to get the first crack at the 1A role in Green Bay's offense.
Insight pageTerrance Ferguson
PositiveBreakout61:08
Terrence Ferguson is a recommended stash who could emerge as a fringe top-10 tight end. He doubled the rest of the position in slot rate last year and had a high aDOT, suggesting he could serve as a de facto wide receiver three in his offense.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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0:19That's LifeLock.com, code FOOTBALL. You're about to listen to the Late Round Fantasy Football Show, which originally aired on YouTube.
0:26If you'd like to catch the show live this offseason, you can head to the Late Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel, YouTube.com slash atLateroundFF.
0:33We'll be live each Wednesday at noon Eastern. Without further ado, here's this week's episode.
0:38Welcome in, welcome in. It's the Late Round Fantasy Football Show sponsored by DraftKings.
0:42David Kitchen here with my quant, my goat, my boss, my friend, JJ Zacharyarysen.
0:46JJ, how are you doing? Eight days away from the season starting.
0:50Technically seven, right? Because we get a Wednesday game next week.
0:53Yeah. Technically. I know that you're on an East Coast time, so it's a little bit different.
0:59You guys count things differently and you're way far behind where we are.
1:03But technically a week, right? Until things go. Yeah.
1:05A week. Yeah, it is. Yeah. Crazy. Crazy. I'll update it.
1:09But are you doing okay? Like with a week left until the season starts?
1:13It's the latest possible start of the NFL season with the way the calendar falls.
1:18Yeah, I'm all right. I got a every Labor Day.
1:21We do a little lake weekend with my wife and her family.
1:25And so we got that going this weekend. I got one more draft guide update that we're doing for Friday.
1:31And then the draft guide updates, unless something like very, very dramatic happens.
1:35I don't know. I feel like it's the calm before the storm.
1:38But I'm excited. You're ready. Yeah, we have the draft guide that you can still purchase at late round dot com.
1:45Also, we're getting into when the season starts. We're going to have some changes.
1:49Matt asked, do you get the live show during the season as well?
1:53Friday, 1 p.m. Eastern. Bookmark your calendars. That will be the time of this show live on YouTube during the season.
2:00Yeah. Yeah. During the season. So starting. I mean, it starts next week.
2:04Starts next week. So this is our last Wednesday show until next week is the Friday show.
2:09And that show is going to be the same content that we did last year.
2:14Or I go over some sleepers players. I'm higher and lower on versus expert consensus rankings.
2:19We still do news. We do today's data. But the main event changes into, you know, the standard rankings and shit like
2:25where I'm where my stuff is higher than consensus.
2:28And then also sleepers. I was going to say shift there.
2:32I think that I stopped myself in the middle of the sentence.
2:35But just to be clear to the kids out there, I was going to say shift.
2:40And to the audio listeners, that will be dropped in your podcast feed on Saturdays going forward.
2:45But during the season also, we will have a lot of stuff up for our members.
2:50LateRound.com. Become an insider member or an all access member.
2:53And join us. We'll have weekly Q&As. We'll have our weekly rankings.
2:57We'll have rest of season rankings. We'll have a Discord chat.
3:01All the good stuff going on there, JJ. So excited about that.
3:04Also want to give a shout out to our sponsor, DraftKings.
3:08You know, we have seven days left. The milli is filling up.
3:11You just finished your 150th, which is the final, the max entries that you can do in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker.
3:18But there's still time for people to enter promo code LATEROUND.
3:21You can get to draft one. Get one promotion that they have going on.
3:26Huge prize pool. But they also have $3 prizes, $5 prizes.
3:29So just a good way. If you've already done your draft, you just get in a few extra sweats for this upcoming season.
3:36JJ, are you going to be doing any more best ball drafts now that you're done with the 150?
3:42Yeah, I mean, I have some slows going on.
3:45I'll try to enter some of the other ones that are out there.
3:49But I focus a lot more on season-long stuff.
3:51You know, I've got a draft tomorrow night. I think I'm taking tonight off, which is going to be nice because I
3:58haven't been able to do that really recently. It's basically like every night there seems to be something.
4:04So, yeah. I mean, I'm like a 7.5 out of 10 happy that I was able to get the portfolio that I did in best ball this year.
4:12And you can listen to what is in that portfolio by listening to the most recent Becoming a Best Ball Bro episode.
4:19Yeah. Lots of stuff going on, JJ. Let's get into it.
4:23It's today's news. Today's fantasy news! All right. Let's start off with the nuclear fantasy bomb that happened on, I guess it was Sunday.
4:30It seems like Sundays have been the big fantasy news bomb day.
4:34The action gente day too, right? Right. So, Sunday, we got word that Josh Jacobs put on the commissioner's exempt list, meaning
4:41that he is not going to be playing. And we don't know for how long, but that definitely elevates Marshawn Lloyd.
4:47Yeah. I think that Lloyd belongs sort of like ahead of Jalen Warren, maybe right after the New England guys.
4:53Otherwise, you could argue him over, I think, Atravion.
4:56I'd still be taking Ramondre over Marshawn Lloyd personally, just because, you know, in Jadarian Price, I'd take over Marshawn Lloyd.
5:02There's still like a lot up in the air with this Josh Jacobs situation in general where this doesn't mean that he's out for the year.
5:10I think some people are treating him as he's out for the year.
5:14I do think that there is a chance that he doesn't play football.
5:18I think there's a chance he doesn't play football ever again.
5:22Like there's a chance because we don't know what exactly, you know, Drew Davenport does really good breakdowns of this stuff.
5:28And one of the things that he brought up that I think is very valid is the fact that like if the
5:35NFL is making this move and they more than likely would not be making this move without more information than what the public has right now.
5:43And so that more information would hypothetically be the fact that there's this video out there that might show something that could
5:50be very damning and bad for the NFL brand.
5:53Which, you know, unfortunately in the end is something that they have to think about from a PR standpoint.
5:59Obviously, the bigger deal here is that this is even a thing and that domestic violence occurs and that this is something that we have to talk about.
6:07But there, you know, as business people are thinking about that and we just have to be realistic about what the NFL
6:14is like when we're trying to manage our fantasy team.
6:17We have to think about what the party's interests are that are involved, right?
6:21And so they put Josh Jacobs on this exempt list.
6:25He could be suspended for six games. Now, to be clear, when you're on the exempt list, whatever games you miss go towards your suspension.
6:32So if he is suspended for six games and he serves five, he only has one more game to serve until he can come back from that suspension.
6:41So the way I kind of see it with Marshawn Lloyd is if Jacobs were to be out for the year, I
6:48think Lloyd would be a fringe top 20 type running back, you know, maybe a little bit later.
6:53But like, I think there's a chance that's still happening.
6:56I'm just ranking him in a spot where I think there's a big drop off at running back, which is basically right
7:03around where Jalen Warren gets drafted, you know, around that area.
7:06Some would even put Tony Pollard there. I'm very low on Tony Pollard, so I don't have him ranked there.
7:13But I think that you can draft Lloyd sort of in that range.
7:17When I look at his prospect profile, you know, and you can read his prospect profile from a couple years ago when he came out.
7:24I wasn't like jumping for joy about Marshawn Lloyd.
7:27I didn't think he was an amazing prospect. He was older, 23, over 23 years old when drafted.
7:33He had a prorated best season reception share in the 38th percentile, adjusted yards per team play and adjusted yards per team
7:39pass attempt in the 48th and 55th percentile. So pretty average production profile when looking strictly at the things that go into the running back zap model.
7:48But that being said, he had a 90th percentile avoided tackles per attempt across his career, and he had an 84th percentile explosive run rate.
7:56And that plays into how well he did running that.
7:59What was it? A 44640 at 220 pounds. Like he's a very compact runner and build, and he's very fast.
8:05Like if you watch him play, he's super, super shifty.
8:08And so I do like that when we have a good speed score matching with a good explosive run rate, which is
8:15one of the things that I had questions about with Mike Washington.
8:18Mike Washington was the opposite of this, where he had a really good speed score, unbelievable speed score, one of the best we've ever seen.
8:26But his explosive run rate really wasn't there in college.
8:29It might be there in the system and, you know, it can still happen.
8:33I'm just saying that it's a lot easier when, and Bashal Tootin had a really good explosive run rate while also being explosive at the combine.
8:42Like you like that all paired together. So I think Marshawn Lloyd is going to get first crack, kind of be the
8:481A because he's never really carried a massive workload.
8:51But, you know, in a world and in a league where backfields are split, I think there's a lot of value in
8:58that, especially because it's Green Bay and it's an offense that we generally want to invest in.
9:03Okay. With that, Caleb Johnson, noted fantasy football bust from last year, traded to the Packers for a pack of peanuts, basically.
9:10I would imagine that Caleb Johnson is not going to get a crack at playing time early on here.
9:16I think that this is more of like a good to late season type of thing just to see like what goes down and such.
9:23I look, I don't think that rushing production metrics are unbelievably predictive, you know, year in and year out.
9:29And I've said this before, but with the year two model, when I'm projecting year two to four production for running backs
9:36versus, you know, after seeing what they did as rookies.
9:39And when I, when I project year two to four output, I'm looking at their ZAP model score.
9:45And I'm also looking at what they did year one at running backs.
9:49That model score is a lot more predictive than anything that players do in year one.
9:54Like realistically, it's a way different at wide receiver where year one production is pretty predictive, but at running back, it's not overly predictive.
10:01So I'm not like, look, I think Caleb Johnson's probably dust.
10:05I mean, the chance that he's going to become something, some star or something is very, very, very, very slim.
10:11But with that being said, I do think that he could be like, I mean, we saw Tank Bigsby kind of go
10:17from being someone that no one really wanted to somebody.
10:21Oh, wow. He was actually really efficient in year two.
10:24And now he's someone that, you know, people like to handcuff.
10:27Like I could see that kind of trajectory for Caleb Johnson because he wasn't, in my opinion, that bad of a prospect.
10:34I don't think he was like flawless and great, but he definitely was not that bad of a prospect.
10:40When you give context of the offense that he was playing in, in the age adjusted stuff that I tend to look at.
10:47So, yeah, I mean, like if you want to stash him in a deep league at the end of your bench, I think that's fine.
10:55I wouldn't expect a whole lot right away. I think Chris Brooks will probably get some run.
11:00There was some Pierre Strong talk I saw there, which, you know, we can't dismiss that because all of these guys are unknowns at this point.
11:08I don't want to say they're Jags because we just don't know if they're good or not.
11:13So with Caleb Johnson right now, I would just stash, cross your fingers, and I would only do it in a deep league.
11:20Yeah. And for those unks out there, Jags means just a guy.
11:24That's what Jags, not the Jaguars. All right. We have Ashton Gentry trending in the right direction.
11:29Woo. Let's go. I was nervous. He's a bit nervous.
11:32Just a little scare. But he's back on the practice field.
11:36How are you feeling? Washington played himself into some more work than what otherwise we would.
11:40We will never know. We'll have no idea. Right.
11:43Because we don't know this. There's an alternate universe out there where Mike Washington was crap in the preseason.
11:49And, you know, they don't they don't think that he's like any good.
11:53But I do think that he maybe played himself in a more early down stuff.
11:58But I think Gentry is still the guy who's going to see all the pass catching work, which is really, really important
12:05for fantasy and really, really important for those early round guys.
12:08Because chances are Gentry will get some of the most of the goal line stuff.
12:13And then he'll still see a large chunk of the early down work.
12:17So I moved him back up into a tier with us because I think there is some risk.
12:22Right. With this injury with Mike Washington, there's a there's there's more risk today than there was a month ago with Ash and Gentry.
12:30So whereas before I kind of had him above these guys, I have him with these guys and that those guys being Saquon, Chase Brown and Kenneth Walker.
12:38And then ahead of the tier of like Amari and Hampton, Devon HN and Derek Henry and have PPR leagues.
12:44That's where I'm placing Ash and Gentry right now.
12:47So, OK, next on the list, we have Travion not yet cleared for practice.
12:51This is a little bit scary. I mean, scary for people who drafted Travion Henderson, maybe.
12:56Yes, not not scary for these Ramondre bags over here.
12:59Yeah, I mean, look, if Travion doesn't play or if he misses, then obviously Ramondre Stevenson is even more of a bell cow.
13:07I think Ramondre is the clear one one a in that backfield to start the season.
13:12And this is sort of like the theme that I'm getting to with Marshawn Lloyd, with even a Ramondre.
13:17Like I'm trying to, you know, when when when I'm focused on like the draft guide and with your draft, right?
13:24Like that's what the draft guide is about. It's how to win your draft and do well in your draft.
13:30I'm trying to put less emphasis on what's going to happen in November and December for your fantasy teams because you can manage things, right?
13:38This isn't best ball where you draft a team and you're done.
13:41You're never touching that lineup again. And so what that means is, is that we don't necessarily have to.
13:47Obviously, if you want Travion Henderson, you got to draft Travion Henderson because no one's he's not going to go undrafted.
13:54But if you're in an active league that trades, I do think that there are going to be ebbs and flows with
14:01some players where their high might be around the draft.
14:04They might hit a low in October and then you can buy again and then get into that player and have him on your roster.
14:11I think Travion could end up being one of those types of players this year.
14:16You know, I still like Ramondre a lot more just in general.
14:20But but with that being said, like at least versus cost.
14:23With that being said, though, I think there's a path where Travion as the season goes on, he just improves and they
14:30want to use him more and he's more explosive and yada, yada, yada.
14:34I don't think there was that much evidence of that last year aside from his really big plays.
14:39But basically what I'm saying here is, is that the reason I'm into like players like Ramondre or like Marshawn Lloyd, you
14:46might have heard where I'm ranking him and be like, wow, that seems really aggressive.
14:51I don't think it's really aggressive versus what the market's been doing, number one.
14:55But number two, I want to win September. You know, I want to I want to win early on and then that
15:02way I can have play more of that bully ball within my league and be able to put together a really great
15:09roster for that playoff push as opposed to, you know, historically there have been times where I've been buying into rookies for
15:16second year, second half of the year breakouts. And I think if I'm being honest with myself as an analyst and helping
15:22you guys, a lot of it is no, let's let's try to win right out the gate while also understanding what's to come later.
15:30But maybe being able to play those ebbs and flows a little bit better on, you know, from a transaction standpoint.
15:36All right. I'm actually going to bump up this little news bit.
15:40The title is, oh, no, JB has a little soreness.
15:43That's what it was yesterday. And then reading today from Mike K.
15:47Jonathan Brooks working to the side with trainer again.
15:50Dave Canales said that he had soreness, quote unquote, yesterday, but wouldn't specify where.
15:54I wonder where that soreness could be, JJ. This has to concern people just a little bit.
15:59Right. Maybe finger finger soreness is what. Yeah. Yeah.
16:02A little wrist soreness. Yeah. I mean, maybe for all we know, he's dealing with hemorrhoids.
16:07Right. We have no idea what's going on with Jonathan Brooks.
16:10So, yeah, I mean, like I have said this on this show.
16:14I've said I'm becoming a best ball bro in higher stakes slash best best ball contests and best ball drafts.
16:20The gap between Jonathan Brooks and Shuba Hubbard over the last couple of weeks has been way too big.
16:26And that's me saying as someone who chases upside, who likes Jonathan Brooks more than Shuba.
16:31I'm still recognizing the range of outcomes here and the probability of how this thing goes down.
16:36And Shuba, you were getting him in the 11th round and you still are in best ball drafts right now.
16:42Like that is insane. When you figure he's going to get some work in this offense.
16:47I think we're just overstating this like early season injury for Shuba.
16:51And look, Shuba was not very good last year.
16:54Bad receiving profile the last few years. Last year didn't have explosive runs.
16:58You know, he just was not really doing it, getting it done, you know, whether through the ground or through the air
17:05on the ground or through the air. This Jonathan Brooks thing is a little bit scary because Brooks has the history that he has.
17:12So I would expect these ADPs to kind of meet in the middle a little bit more.
17:17I'd still be drafting Brooks over Hubbard because the upside rests with him.
17:21In my opinion, he was a better prospect, good receiving profile.
17:25I think they use him more as a pass catcher.
17:28But there's obvious fear that, you know, there could be this could be something.
17:32We just have no information on it right now because Dave Canales isn't telling us anything.
17:37Okay. Kittle throwing another shrimp on the barbie. Wanted to do this because it looks like he might play.
17:43At least he's going to travel with the team.
17:46This is your Australian Australian. Yeah. You know, but that's all we think about people out from Australia.
17:51We just talk about shrimp on the barbie, right?
17:54Yeah. And it's for those that don't know, it means an outdoor cookout with seafood in Australia.
17:59Yes. I thought it's good. It's a good thing that he is look trending towards playing because otherwise we'd be saying our nar.
18:06Right. About Kittle. No, I'm excited. I'm excited about Kittle being able to play.
18:11I don't think he's going to be at 100%, of course.
18:14But, I mean, everything's been trending in this direction throughout the offseason.
18:18And apparently the Achilles injury that he had was not like the bad kind.
18:22I don't know anything about that and what it means from a medical standpoint.
18:26But that's the way that a lot of docs were sort of phrasing it and such.
18:31So, I've had him ranked relatively high and aggressive.
18:34And, you know, I've drafted him on plenty of teams.
18:37I think we drafted him in our late round team that we did together.
18:41Me, you, and Godula for members. So, I think he's on that tight end premium team.
18:46We got a nice discount. So, yeah. I mean, I think if he's playing, he's probably going to end up being a start-worthy-ish tight end in week one.
18:55Just because that's what George Kittle does. Not the best matchup in the world.
18:59I'm a little bit afraid of anyone facing the Rams at this point.
19:03But, yeah. I mean, it's obviously good news. Yeah.
19:06I'm already ready for it. Because even in my home league, I drafted Kittle.
19:10But I also drafted Dallas Goddard just, like, later on in case he didn't play.
19:15And we're going to get those questions next week, left and right, depending on if Kittle's going to play or not.
19:22Should I play him? Should I play him? All right.
19:25Won't you please play my neighbors? Malik neighbors is dealing, also dealing with some soreness, JJ.
19:30And this is a tad bit concerning. Yeah. I had to change that O to an E in there.
19:35Sorry. Yeah. You're doing what I tweeted about the other day, about how no one spells neighbor's name correctly.
19:41No one ever spells it correctly. What if I did it on purpose?
19:45Yeah. Just to put me on tilt. Again, this is another one of those things where I'm a little bit nervous about,
19:52you know, what all of this means with his injury and him not being 100% yet.
19:57And I think there's some chance that he doesn't play week one.
20:01The thing that's always really weird to me is like when players are banged up and they're like, oh, we can't play
20:08week one, but week two is looking good. Like one week out of this really long time frame is making this massive
20:14difference between whether or not this guy could be on the field.
20:18That's always been weird to me. But yeah, I mean, like, I think you got to monitor this situation because obviously we've
20:25been drafting him at like the two, three turn.
20:28And if he's not playing week one, you got to find someone to fill in.
20:32I still think that he's worthwhile to draft at the two, three turn.
20:36Just be, I think, you know, I have like a lava and Nico above him, but I do think that they're, you
20:43know, they're in the same tier and such. I think you can still draft him there because early on in the season
20:50is one of the easiest times to replace players because no one's on by no one's hurt aside from, you know, the guy that you're replacing.
20:58You just have fewer injuries, no by weeks. Your bench is is fresher and easier to throw someone in there.
21:04So it's another reason why you can still draft neighbors.
21:07But yes, this is something that should lower his ADP hypothetically.
21:10The fact that this news item is out there.
21:13Okay. Chris Godwin might be in a pretty good spot.
21:16We already have drafted him quite a bit on this show.
21:20But Emeka Ibuka, there is video of him today.
21:22Yeah. I Peter report. I saw in the, in the news channel in our late round discord of him working out during
21:29warmups, but I still am skeptical that he will be ready for week one.
21:34We hope that Ibuka will be ready for week one, but if not Godwin is his value week.
21:39One's going to go up. I think Godwin's a great pick regardless.
21:43He's one of my highest rostered wide receivers in best ball this year.
21:47You know, you can kind of explain away what happened last year due to the injury and coming back from the injury before that injury happened.
21:55He was literally a top five wide receiver in fantasy.
21:58He was destroying in fantasy. And so I'm in on Godwin without Mike Evans.
22:02His splits without Evans are obviously good and solid.
22:05So I think that you should be drafting him regardless, but I think it just makes it even more enticing.
22:11The fact that Ibuka may not play week one.
22:14I think he probably will, but even if he does, it's an injury that can kind of linger.
22:20So I'm, I'm in on Godwin this year. I think that he's a good pick at ADP.
22:25Yeah. Jalen McMillan also with his knee not fully cleared.
22:28So again, just plenty of room for Chris Godwin.
22:31And Ken Allen reportedly is playing week one, bro.
22:33What are you doing? Yeah. I mean, look, I said this on becoming a best ball bro.
22:39I'll say it now. Don't, don't drive while intoxicated.
22:41Don't be in a car like that in the driver's seat with the key in the, in the ignition, the way that
22:48he was, I know he allegedly was parked, but that's still, you know, it shows intent and I'm sure, you know, maybe
22:55he was or whatever he was doing before that, probably not the best decision.
22:59Uh, and I, he would probably agree with that.
23:02So, you know, it's one of those things where there are unfortunately way worse things that are going on in the NFL with some of these players.
23:11And we, we unfortunately do see DUIs quite frequently.
23:13The weird thing with Keenan Allen is that usually these won't come to fruition in terms of suspension or anything until the,
23:20the, the court system, like everything plays out in the court system.
23:24And that might not be until like a suspension happening next year, but what happens if Keenan Allen just says, peace out, I'm retiring, you know?
23:32Like what, what if he's, what if he's just done and he doesn't have to serve that suspension.
23:37So like I, from, from what I can gather, I don't think he's going to be suspended this year.
23:43You know, Chris Ballard said something like along the lines of like, he's had a very clean record until this one bad incident.
23:50And I am, uh, uh, you know, I, I do think that people deserve second chances and we can't just judge them based on one bad decision.
23:59Uh, with that being said, it was a bad decision and it was a stupid decision and nobody should be doing that.
24:05What he did. Okay. Yeah. And Alec Pierce just staying on the Colts out, pure still not ready for week one.
24:12We're assuming he did not get put on IR.
24:15Yeah. I don't know what to do about. I kind of am thinking though, that he's like, I drafted him last night in the league cause he's falling.
24:23Uh, I saw Dr. Chow tweet something like his ankle didn't look as bad as people probably think.
24:29Uh, and so I'm kind of buying more into Alec Pierce than where I was before.
24:34The problem is I'm at the point now where after the top 30 wide receivers are gone, you then there, you see like a teardrop.
24:42Maybe it's like after Parker Washington or something from an ADP perspective, you see this teardrop into like the Godwin range.
24:48And then, you know, you get into like the Cortland Suttons and Michael Wilson's and Jordan Madison's and design Dajon Striblings and, uh, players like Casey Concepcion.
24:56I, I, I like a lot of those guys.
24:59I think Alec Pierce belongs with those players at this point.
25:03Whereas before it was more of just a, we got to avoid the situation.
25:07I think you can argue to take him over a lot of those guys.
25:11If you want to, if you want to get risky and take a chance, you know, so, um, definitely monitor that, but
25:18I think he might end up being a value in some draft, some individual draft ADP might not show it, but in
25:25some individual drafts, he's probably going to drop too far.
25:28Uh, Dan Graziano had his, uh, surprising predictions for each NFL team.
25:32Um, for the Colts, don't be surprised if Josh Downs is the team's top wide receiver.
25:36And with that talked about Pierce, not being able to fully expand his route tree.
25:41Yeah. I mean, I think that like, you know, Downs has been a target in the draft guide all summer.
25:47So I'm, I'm, I'm in on Downs, you know, I'm not really drafting Keenan Allen in a managed league.
25:53I think it's more of a best ball situation.
25:56And then Alec Pierce, if you want to throw that dart, the upside is clearly there, but I do think missing time
26:03when you needed this player to take a step forward from a route tree perspective, it makes a lot of sense as
26:09to why Graziano would say something like that. What I discovered in my home league draft from this past weekend is we
26:16spend all this time in our, you know, summer best ball redraft high stakes bubble.
26:21And then we got there, I got to the auction and like no one wanted Josh Downs.
26:26Yeah. Oh yeah. I've gotten to every home league.
26:29I got, I get Josh Downs in like the 12th round.
26:32Yeah. Right. So some things translated, uh, some things did not, I will say we'll go ahead and, and skip to, uh,
26:39to Luther burden because he went for a crazy price.
26:42I couldn't even get them. And I'm like, this is ridiculous.
26:46Yeah. But here's, here's the thing with, here's the thing with burden.
26:49I see all that. Like to me, there's been more anti-burden talk than, than pro burden talk from analysts at this point.
26:56Like there's more people that are like, I don't understand this ADP.
27:00Go look at his ADP. It's not nearly as high as what you think.
27:04Like people are acting like he's being drafted ahead of like Devante Smith.
27:08And so he's not like, he's in the tier that I think he objectively belongs.
27:13And I'm higher than where he gets drafted for sure.
27:16I like Luther burden, but like, you're going to find an individual draft, especially an auction, all you need in an auction
27:23are two people that really like a player, you know, that can bid a player up.
27:28And then it just, you know, he goes crazy and goes for a lot of money.
27:32And then obviously in a, in a season long league, you just need that one person.
27:37But, um, there, there are enough people that don't like Luther burden and don't like buying into the ambiguity.
27:43And that's why his ADP is like low end wide receiver to range.
27:47It's not, you know, it's like, I see a lot of people talking about him being in like the third round.
27:54He's not a third round player. I've not seen him go in the third round, even in best ball and maybe even all summer.
28:01You know, it's just not happening the way that people are making it seem like it's happening.
28:06So I still think that you can, you should, and can be going after Luther burden and drafts despite, you know, obviously,
28:13like you said, kitchen, like in your draft, he goes higher, that's going to happen in some drafts.
28:19You know, it's, it's not, you know, like I, we were talking to somebody in the discord or I was earlier today
28:26where they were like, man, Chris Alave is probably gonna be a player for you player to target in your draft guide this week.
28:33Huh? Because I've been seeing Chris Alave go at the end of the third round.
28:38And I'm like, but he's not going at the end of the third round and the vast majority, like that's your experience.
28:44Totally get it. And that could be happening in your leagues.
28:48I'm not discounting that, but average draft position is average draft position.
28:51You're taking thousands and thousands of drafts to come up with that number.
28:56Staying in Chicago, common guy week to week. He did not land on IR and you can see on the screen, the
29:02list of players that are on IR. Well, kind of, sort of.
29:06Zach Charbonnet, Isaiah Pacheco, James Conner, Adam Randall, Trey Benson, Tank Dell, Christian Kirk, Jordan Tyson.
29:11And that's it. There are two other guys that were, I think were free agents.
29:16That's not the only one. Don't worry about those two guys.
29:19Yeah. I mean like, yeah, that's great. The Isaiah Pacheco stuff is just as crazy too, because he just has had this injury lingering.
29:26And then like, someone asked him if he was going to play this year and they were like, yeah, we think so.
29:33We think he's going to, and it's like, whoa.
29:36Okay. So this is like a pretty serious thing.
29:39But yeah, the Mononga week to week thing, it's just rising DeAndre Swift's ADP into that like very firm fourth round.
29:45I saw him last night. I did a draft team in the third round, DeAndre Swift.
29:50So at RB 14, I don't think that I'd pay that high of a price because I do think Mononga will be back eventually.
29:58And obviously there's going to be some somewhat of a split backfield, but I think DeAndre Swift's a good player.
30:04And so I'm not going to fault anyone for, for reaching a little bit to get that, that kind of running back.
30:10Yeah. Last year, you know, I got, I got screwed by a few different players.
30:15Marshawn Lloyd drafting so much of him. Roshan Johnson, the bears.
30:19Now I've got those situations flip-flopped. Also last year, I drafted a ton of Jaden blue.
30:23Jaden blue. Did not this year. So, uh, one for three Jaden blue cut by the Cowboys, re-signed with the Eagles practice squad.
30:31That was crazy. The cope has been so funny.
30:33Like, like you people on Twitter are like, well, this could actually be a good thing for Jaden guys.
30:39It's not a good thing for Jaden blue. He sat with the Eagles probably for like Intel purposes and he's being cut
30:46by his team after being drafted last year. And this is from coming from someone that my stance on Jaden blue is
30:53actually, I didn't mind him as a prospect. Like that was a wrong evaluation.
30:57Clearly I got it wrong, you know? Uh, but like, I think a lot of people were only buying into the situation.
31:04And then obviously there's the, the, uh, the reverse side of that, where then people yell at the people who are just buying in a situation.
31:12I'm like, no, I actually thought that he was a pretty interesting prospect, like really good, uh, speed, good pass catcher.
31:18If that comes together, that's, that's valuable in a, in a, in fantasy football.
31:23Obviously it has not come together. And so now we're looking at Malik Davis being one of the higher end handcuffs at this point in fantasy.
31:31And then here's the other thing, kitchen that I want to throw this take out there.
31:36I'm just going to get a lob it out there.
31:39Let people kind of consume it a little bit.
31:42Yeah. I think that them getting Amari DiMarcado might end up being a worse thing for Javante Williams than them just having Jaden blue.
31:49If we now, now that we know what Jaden blue was likely going to be for them.
31:54Right. Which was nothing. Right. Right. So like them having Amari DiMarcado, who's played a third down role historically and has shown off actually some burst at time.
32:03Remember that really long touchdown he had? Well, almost had.
32:06And then the one that, that he dropped right before he walked into the end zone.
32:11Yeah. Yeah. We won't talk about that. But yeah.
32:14I mean, like, like DiMarcado, I think could end up being kind of a thorn eventually if they, if they want to
32:20deploy him more in a, in a committee, like as he gets acclimated to the offense and stuff, because he's played that
32:27role in Javante Williams, his biggest, like I haven't faded Javante at all.
32:31I've actually been, I think a couple of spots higher than the market on Javante this off season, which is not standard for me to go out.
32:40And I like to, to be higher on a player like this because his receiving profile is incredibly questionable.
32:45Like he is a standard like dead zone type running back profile that I've been okay with just because of situation that can definitely, definitely bite me.
32:54So I think this is a more fragile situation for Javante Williams in the market might think because after Jaden blue gets
33:01cut, Javante is going to end up being a right after Nico Collins type pick or above a breeze hall type player, which he's been actually pretty consistently.
33:09I'm not there because I don't think there's really a difference between Jaden blue and Amari Di Mercado and Malik Davis could obviously get some work too.
33:17Yes. That was a thing is they also cut Phil Moffa.
33:21And so people just thought it was just those two.
33:24Then they sign. Yeah. I mean, no team is going to go into a season with two running backs, right?
33:30Potential fly in the ointment with Di Mercado. All right.
33:33Last on the list. Dolphins ring that bell for week one.
33:37Chris Bell. Good for him, man. Yeah. I think he's expected to play week one.
33:41I really liked Chris Bell. Um, and now he seems like he's trending in the right direction.
33:47We thought that it was going to be a while before he even saw the field.
33:51Look, I'll say this. I was very, people know this.
33:55I was very skeptical about the day two wide receivers this year in the NFL draft.
33:59A lot of mid profiles, a lot of guys who, you know, were seemingly overdrafted based on their analytical profiles.
34:06But as I was saying over and over again, someone's going to emerge that we don't expect to emerge.
34:12Someone's going to hit that we don't expect to hit.
34:15It's just, uh, just the law of numbers. There's just a lot of players that were being drafted in that top 100 range.
34:22A lot of wide receivers. Chris Bell though, actually had a decent analytical profile.
34:2669th percentile breakout score is not that bad for a day two guy.
34:30Um, you know, a lot of his like per route run numbers are above average.
34:35He had a, a max adjusted yards per team pass attempt season in the 68th percentile.
34:40His max target share was 32%, which is an 84th percentile number.
34:43Um, and he was really good in, uh, contested situations as well in college, which does signal that there might be a separation issue for him.
34:51And that's something that I think Matt Harmon had charted a little bit.
34:55So I don't, I don't think this is like, uh, he's AJ Brown because that's what his build is.
35:01If you want to get an idea of like the frame of Chris Bell, I don't think he's AJ Brown because AJ
35:08Brown had, had a better age adjusted production profile.
35:11But when Chris Bell was drafted, he was not 22 years old yet.
35:15I mean, like there's a lot of good to Chris Bell's profile.
35:18I think straight up Bell is a much better prospect than Caleb Douglas, uh, for, for what we're looking at from a fantasy football perspective.
35:26So I think if you have an IR spot, if he, if he ends up like being out week one, you know, you can throw him on there.
35:35Uh, once he, he gets that designation, but if he plays, uh, I still think that in a deep league, you can,
35:42you can stash him because there's a lot up in the air in that Miami offense right now.
35:47Yeah. Uh, Caleb Douglas is going way ahead of Bell in your, your draft Kings, your best ball drafts.
35:53Uh, now they're pretty similar. And also Bell would be a really good keeper.
35:57Almost got him as a keeper. And so those, those leagues, uh, speaking of best ball drafts right after this show, Brandon
36:04Godula and myself will be drafting a team. You'll be redirected to that stream.
36:08So I'm a few drafts away from finishing my one 50.
36:12Brandon still has a little bit more. Uh, so we'll probably draft one of his teams and hopefully I won't convince him to draft a bad team.
36:20Like he says I did last time. So that's hopefully the NFL never stops and neither does its newest podcast.
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38:00All right, JJ. It is unk season. Are you ready for this?
38:04Yeah. All right. Let's get into today's data. Today's data.
38:07All right. We've got older wide receiver production after multiple down yards per route run seasons.
38:12JJ, you were so excited to debut this. This is just a fun little, little query.
38:17This is all this is. Okay. And yes, this is a DJ more table because I was just curious.
38:22I thought to myself, Hey, what happens to wide receivers if they're entering, if they're, if they're past age 28 and they
38:29had back-to-back seasons where one of the seasons was sub 1.7 yards per route run, which is well above where DJ more's better season was at.
38:37And then the other one was sub 1.5 in either order.
38:41It doesn't matter when those seasons happen. And DJ more was well below those marks.
38:45Okay. So I queried this and I looked through it and I sifted through the data.
38:50And since 2016, there has only been two players who have scored that, that fit this criteria that ran a hundred or
38:57more routes in each of those seasons as well, who have scored over 13 PPR points per game after those two down seasons.
39:04So the TLDR, the explain like I'm five of this is essentially these wide receivers had two bad yards per route run seasons in a row.
39:12They're then 28 years or older entering that third season.
39:15And they've run a hundred or more routes in all three of those years.
39:19And in that third season, how often they actually give us like league winning production.
39:24And the answer to that is not very frequently at all.
39:27You very rarely even get 10 or more PPR points per game.
39:31This is a DJ more thing. I mean, the other thing too, is that eight of the 14 that you see listed
39:38here on a per route run basis were over the 17% targets per route run rate mark in both of their, those
39:45two seasons that we're analyzing DJ more was not in one of them.
39:49So there's also that going against him. He was really bad on a per route run basis.
39:54And so I'm looking at this list and it's another reason why I can't be super, super bullish on DJ more this year.
40:01I think that he has a unique situation where a lot of these guys are not necessarily seeing the same ADP.
40:08The market isn't reacting, you know, they're, they're not all traded to a team like the bills.
40:13Like there's obviously a lot of stuff that's not gonna be captured in something like this, but, and, and just the, the,
40:20you know, looking at trends and seeing how things have generally gone, it's not good news for DJ more overall.
40:26I thought it was interesting. I just wanted to share this doesn't complete my DJ more take where I think DJ more is like a soft fade.
40:34Like I have them in the same tier as a lot of guys.
40:38So like, but basically like there are the top 30 wide receivers, I think are very good wide receivers this year.
40:45None of them in my full blown fading, but some of them I have ranked differently within a tier, right?
40:51So DJ more goes ahead of a lot of players that are in his tier that I would just, you know, I
40:58would take those players ahead of DJ more. That's really what this comes down to.
41:02But I do think that he's going to have to be somewhat of an outlier to really hit this year from a, from a fantasy perspective.
41:10Yeah. John Brown, a name that the chat is talking about bringing back memories.
41:15Lots of good, lots of good names on there.
41:17Damien, Danny Amendola, Mac Collins, this Tyler Boyd boy, he, he went downhill fast.
41:22So yeah, Randall Cobb on there twice, but he didn't do anything in those two seasons.
41:27Yeah. Yeah. A few people, John Brown, Randall Cobb and Amendola all on there twice.
41:31Yeah. And the reason for that is because obviously these guys played into like their thirties and stuff.
41:37So they had the ability to have multiple seasons where they were down.
41:41And then obviously that third season, they were above that 28 years old mark.
41:45All right, JJ, let's get into some waiver wire stashes.
41:48Yeah. I looked at a Yahoo percent roster numbers.
41:51No, I looked at, I looked at Yahoo percent roster numbers and tried to give you guys some realistic options that could
41:58be sitting on your, on your waiver wire right now.
42:01Quarterback. You really don't have anyone that is usable at all.
42:04Hopefully you drafted a quarterback that you can use in week one, but that that's, you know, in like that 20% range or whatever.
42:12So I have two of them that are around the 40% range, Malik Willis being one of them.
42:17I've said it so many times over the last month, but he had 11.8 rushing points per game last year, a 0.88
42:24fantasy points per drop back over his last two seasons.
42:27Lamar Jackson second on that list at 0.71. So there's upside here.
42:31I don't know how people can deny the upside.
42:34You can say the downside is certainly there. Yeah, I agree.
42:37We have no idea if Malik Willis is good or not, but the upside is obviously there and the opening schedule is not bad.
42:44They get the Raiders in week one. They follow that up with the 49ers, which could be a good matchup.
42:51The chiefs, the Vikings, the Bengals, the jets. It's not, you know, unbelievable.
42:55Cause I think like the Bengals secondary is a lot better than people would imagine.
42:59Um, you know, the Vikings are obviously a defense, uh, with, with Flores that that's just generally scary, but you know, you get the jets in there.
43:08I think the 49ers could be a fun one for, for the dolphins.
43:12Uh, and then obviously the Raiders in week one.
43:14So I think there's a scenario where Malik Willis is like a top 15 core.
43:19I haven't done my rankings yet, but he's like a fringe ish top 15 quarterback in week one, all things considered.
43:25Yeah. Also Raiders just announced Kirk cousins name. In quarterback.
43:29So not surprising. No surprise there. All right. Next on the list, another quarterback, Tyler shot.
43:33Yeah. Look, when he became started last year, he was 15th and points per drop back 11th and rushing points per game.
43:40He's a year two player. There's a lot of upside with year two players.
43:45It's a good ecosystem. They run at a fast pace.
43:48There's a lot of passing volume in it. And he starts the season against Detroit, Baltimore, Vegas, and Atlanta.
43:54So maybe you don't play him against Baltimore. I can understand that, but week one against Detroit, he's a great play.
44:00And then you get Vegas and Atlanta weeks three and four.
44:03So I, you know, Tyler Shuck is out there.
44:06I think he's going to have a good first month of the season.
44:10Okay. Next. Tajay Spears, JJ. Your boy. Yeah. Your boy, Tajay Spears.
44:14I mean, this is, this is just more anti Tony Pollard propaganda for me in the end.
44:19He look, I don't know how much noise there is to this, but he played more with Cam Ward in the preseason than Tony Pollard did.
44:27And that includes early down stuff. This is not just a, they were trail.
44:31I mean, not that you would like play hurry up in a, in the first quarter of games or whatever, but this
44:38wasn't like they were just deploying Tajay Spears on third down or in like a hurry up offense or anything like that.
44:45Like he was getting early down work in the offense.
44:48Maybe that means nothing, but it's a new coaching staff.
44:51We don't know how this backfield is going to be divvied up and no offense to the, to the Titans hat wearing
44:58co-hosts that I have, but they're probably not going to be very good this year.
45:03And if they're not very good this year, then all of a sudden Tajay Spears, who's been the, the satellite, the third
45:09down, the hurry up back could be on the field a lot more than what we would probably expect.
45:15So I think Spears is kind of a good stash just to see how that backfield is, is split up in week one.
45:22You know, he's more going to be like, there's, there's almost no chance he's got like, unless Tony Pollard gets hurt, does he have like RB two upside?
45:31But I do think that he could maybe be a flex in PPR formats.
45:35Yeah. He's an explosive player. I think that the concern I've always had is just longevity, but as far as like a stash for shorter or.
45:43Is this where we remind everyone that he doesn't have ACLs?
45:47Yeah. Yeah. He doesn't have, oh, he's got one.
45:50Yeah. He doesn't have one ACL. Yeah. Heinz Ward, you know, Heinz Ward has zero ACLs.
45:54I didn't, I did not know that. Yeah. Heinz Ward doesn't have any ACLs.
45:59I've got one and a half. I've got one that works partially.
46:02Yeah. So. I have two. I have two. I think I've never got them, you know, MRI directs or anything like that.
46:09Must be nice. All right. Next on this list.
46:12Jonah Coleman. Yeah, man. I look. Jonah Coleman had a very good production.
46:16There are two running backs in this draft class that I thought had genuinely, aside from Jeremiah love that I thought had genuinely good production profiles.
46:24That one was Jonah Coleman. The other was Emma Johnson.
46:27Jonah Coleman's downside was that he wasn't the most explosive player in the world from a, you know, like 40, you know, weight adjusted 40 time type standpoint.
46:36Um, but his production profile is really good. Obviously the situation, Denver's intriguing.
46:40He's a do it all back. Dobbins has durability concerns.
46:43Harvey was bottom of the league and rushing yards over expected per rush last year.
46:48But listen to this college production, 72nd percentile, best season reception share, 88th percentile adjusted yards per team pass attempt, 89th percentile
46:54avoided tackles per attempt, 89th percentile yards after contact per attempt.
46:58Like he had very, very good running them rushing numbers while also being a good pass catcher in college.
47:04So I, I, I do wonder what things are going to look like in week one because they kept Tyler Beatty, sorry, bidet.
47:11I just see the word Beatty on my sheet and I just say it, you know, how it's, how it's should be said, but sorry, bidet.
47:19They kept Tyler bidet. And I wonder what that might look like week one.
47:23Like I'm assuming Jonah Coleman's going to be dressed, but you know, keep an eye on, uh, on it.
47:29Like we've been surprised before with how teams handle rookies, you know, like Devon H and wasn't playing for instance, to start his NFL career too.
47:37So be on the lookout for that. With that being said, I do like Jonah Coleman long-term as a stash.
47:43Yeah. And that Graziano article, as far as someone that might help you during the fancy playoffs, if you're a late round customer, you already know.
47:51Emma Johnson next on the list. Yeah. Jonah Coleman, my highest rostered running back in best ball this year.
47:57Yeah. Went over that in the, uh, on the show.
48:00Emma Johnson, the other guy, uh, he's a do it all back, likely more of a stash.
48:05Very similar to what I just said with Jonah Coleman.
48:08Uh, I want to see what that backfield just generally looks like behind Kenneth Walker.
48:13And if Emma Johnson sees work with Kenneth Walker, even in the backfield, his collegiate production.
48:18Very, very good from a receiving standpoint. 94th percentile best season reception share.
48:2295th percentile adjusted yards per team play. 89th percentile adjusted receiving yards per team past them.
48:27Those are all three metrics that go directly into the running back zap model.
48:31The downside, he lacks explosion even more than Jonah Coleman does, at least from an explosive run rate perspective.
48:37He had a 19th percentile explosive run rate last year, but that pairs really well with Kenneth Walker.
48:43He's a good pass catcher, you know, kind of a do it all guy, like a grinder, like can, can get what he needs.
48:50Whereas Kenneth Walker is that home run hitter who, you know, I love Kenneth Walker this year.
48:55I think he's going to be featured, but it is going to be interesting to see how they split that backfield or
49:02how they deploy a player like Emma Johnson. Maybe not right away, but as the season goes on.
49:08So if you have a deep enough league, you can stash him.
49:11Okay. Next on the list, the guy that we just talked about Malik Davis.
49:16He's the number two back in a high powered offense.
49:19That's what this comes down to. And I already talked about this with Javante Williams, where I don't think that he was
49:26especially like amazing last year as a receiver. And that does have pretty bad year over year predictiveness for, in terms of being a good fantasy asset.
49:34So Malik Davis, I think, you know, I'm not a big, big draft handcuffed guy, but I think that if you have
49:41an empty roster spot, he's not a bad guy to just have back there to see how they split their backfield too.
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51:28All right, Jacoby Lane. I'm still hesitant to say that Jacoby Lane is going to smash.
51:33Yeah. And I say that not because I think that what they're saying out of Baltimore is false.
51:39I understand the upside case for him, but he's a very acrobatic player.
51:43And I think those types of players generally come out and look better in camp than the alternatives do.
51:49And so with Lane, there were some okay arcs.
51:52Like, he's an early declare, pretty average breakout scorer.
51:54He wasn't like one of those day three picks where I'm like, why did that team just do that?
52:00That's a wild pick. Like, I'm not surprised that, you know, he's younger.
52:04He played with NFL competition in college. But I do question how much passing volume this offense is going to see.
52:11And then also, I still think Rashad Bateman is going to play ahead of him to start the year.
52:17So, I think there is a chance that Jacoby Lane ends up being a drop for some teams after the first couple
52:23weeks of the season when his route share is not there or if his route share is not there, etc.
52:29But look, if you want to see, like, what if he surprises and he just comes out and he plays as the wide receiver, too?
52:37That's in his range of outcomes. So, if your league's deep enough, I think you can stash him.
52:43He's only rostered in 18% of leagues. Yeah, one of those guys that if you're plugged into X or social media, you've
52:50seen plenty of highlights, but maybe your league hasn't.
52:52So, we'll see. Another guy, Dontavian Wicks. I love Dontavian Wicks this year.
52:56As a player that, like, if you went running back heavy and you just need some, like, a wide receiver four or
53:03five or something like that to fill a flex spot early in the season, I think Wicks can play that role.
53:10He had 71st, like, since he entered the league, 71st percentile yards per route run.
53:14So, this is since 2023. 76th percentile fantasy points per route run.
53:1881st percentile targets per route run. Like, he's been efficient per route run.
53:22He's just not run a ton of routes. But Kyle Lemon off to a slow start could be playing a slot-only role
53:29in that offense with Dontavian Wicks playing on the outside opposite of Devontae Smith.
53:33We could also see a lot of heavy personnel in that offense, hypothetically.
53:37And so, that could also boost the target share for a player like Wicks.
53:41I just think he's a great pick right now at the end of your draft and a good player to stash.
53:48Okay. Next on the list, the guy we just talked about, Chris Bell.
53:52Already talked about him. All this stuff. I thought he was the most intriguing day two wide receiver this year.
53:5869th percentile breakout score. He's 6'2", 222. Above average yak profile.
54:0186th percentile contested catch rate. Which, again, could show separation issues, but also could also just show that he's a dog.
54:08Right? I do worry about the injury recovery and that separation.
54:11But I am fine with stashing him given the open depth chart in Miami.
54:16All right. Next on the list, Jalen Knoll and Kayshaun Booty.
54:19Yeah. I think Jalen Knoll could be very sneaky this year.
54:22Second half breakout kind of player. He was very, in my opinion, pretty good last year.
54:271.45 yards per route run. He got six of eight deep balls.
54:31He was second on that team in deep ball catches despite the lack of routes run behind only Nico Collins.
54:37So I think Knoll is going to play slot to start.
54:41Maybe that builds into something more. Kayshaun Booty ran a lot of just go routes last year.
54:46And he might end up playing a similar role for Houston.
54:49And that's why they went after him. But I don't think Booty necessarily belongs in that kind of...
54:55I think they can move him around a little bit too.
54:58I like both these players. Like, I think they're both...
55:01I like them both as prospects. And what they've shown in the NFL, I think, is a little bit underrated and undervalued.
55:08So I'll say stash both of them. I think if you want to go with a safer one, it's Booty.
55:14But if you want to go with the upside one in a deep league, just go with Jalen Knoll.
55:20Okay. Next, we have another boom bust receiver, Devon Bailey.
55:23I think Bailey could actually get some production for your teams early in the season.
55:28We talked about that schedule with Tyler Shuck. And obviously, that aligns with Jordan Tyson being sidelined.
55:33And Devon Bailey last year with Shuck had a 1.58 yards per outrun rate.
55:37That's not bad at all. Almost a 19% targets per outrun rate.
55:41We even see some on-off splits with Bailey and Chris Alave, where Alave was not seeing quite as big of a target
55:48share when Bailey was on the field, which tells you that maybe he's good enough to take some of those looks.
55:54So I think Bailey, 2% rostered right now, if you just need a dart throw week one against Detroit, I think he could work.
56:02Okay. We have Kenyon Sadiq next. And boy, do I hope he is a stash that pays off.
56:07Well, I just think that people are overthinking this and they're so worried about early season injury stuff and not thinking about it.
56:14Because he could be ready week one, number one.
56:17But number two, we're talking about a round one tight end.
56:21Middle of round one, bad draft class, sure. But he would have gone late round one if not.
56:26Okay. Elite athlete. One of the best we've ever seen at the Combine.
56:30And he's an afterthought. No one cares about him in fantasy football.
56:34I don't understand. He had an above average age-adjusted production profile.
56:37He's young. There's a lot to like about Sadiq, despite the fact that he's not a Brock Bowers type prospect.
56:43He's still a good prospect. I think that we should be throwing darts in that direction when we're talking about really elite
56:50players and elite prospects who get good draft capital.
56:53And in offense, by the way, Frank Reich's offenses have been very tight end friendly.
56:58So I don't want to overthink it. I think Kenyon Sadiq's a good player and a good pick in fantasy right now.
57:04All right. We have Terrence Ferguson next on this list.
57:08Yeah. The last one, Terrence Ferguson. Someone emailed because I had him as a bold prediction.
57:12I said that he would be the highest scoring Ferguson tight end this year in fantasy football.
57:18So obviously ahead of Jake Ferguson. Someone emailed back and a lot of people have been like, where is Terrence Ferguson's upside really going to come from?
57:26And I would agree to an extent about like top three upside, right?
57:30Like, but you can make the exact same argument for Jake Ferguson where he doesn't have top three upside either unless an injury occurs.
57:37Well, the same thing with Terrence Ferguson. If an injury occurs to Pukunakua or Devante Adams, we could see a lot more upside for Terrence Ferguson.
57:45Now I know that there's seems like there's too many mouths to feed a tight end in LA, but I'm just going
57:52with the player that I like last year doubled up the rest of the position in slot rate, which is really predictive
57:59or pretty predictive for later round tight end breakouts.
58:02He had an a dot that was six yards higher than any other tight end in football last year.
58:08They move them all over the formation. He's kind of their de facto or he could be their de facto wide receiver three.
58:15So if you get like a 15 or 16% target share, which is in his range of outcomes, if that happens for
58:22Terrence Ferguson, he can definitely pay off and be like a fringe top 10 tight end this year.
58:27So I think these are good stash. See how they deploy that tight end room and specifically him in week one and then kind of go from there.
58:36Okay. And then last we have the defenses. I would also, before you get on, on these during the season, we have our look ahead waiver wire.
58:44So make sure you tune into that show because it's a, we have way where our stashes now, but it looks ahead to the following week.
58:52So you can get ahead of those that save some fab on your, in your league.
58:57Yeah. So with defenses right now, it's really hard to find ones with like, obviously good mat, like good defensive with obviously
59:04good matchups because everyone was drafting for that in their draft.
59:07So I had the Cowboys against the giants and the Cowboys defense could be a little bit better this year.
59:13The bills against the Texans because the Texans offensive line, we don't know if that's going to look, you know, incredibly improved.
59:20And then I do have the Packers against the Vikings, which I'm not like a hundred percent sold on, but they do
59:27get the jets and the Falcons in weeks two and three.
59:30If you don't have, you know, if you have like transaction limits or something like that within your league, but there's a huge drop to these defenses.
59:39They're all 26% or lower. Every other defense is like all the ones that are, that are like usable are 50% or higher right now over on Yahoo.
59:47So it's just a really difficult position pre week one to call out and say, this defense is going to be great as streamers.
59:55Whereas, you know, people aren't thinking about week two right now.
59:58They're only thinking about week one. So after week one is over, we should have more options for defenses.
60:04All right. It's time to sign off on this show.
60:07But again, right after this, we'll be having the draft Kings Millie maker drafts like we do during the week.
60:13Uh, if you're listening on demand, you go back and watch that on our YouTube channel.
60:18Go ahead and subscribe while you're doing that. And JJ, we talked about it at the beginning of the show, but some might've missed it next week.
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60:29Yes. So, and there'll be, it'll be in the podcast feed Saturday mornings.
60:33Yes. Saturday morning on the podcast feed, but we'd love if you would join us during the, uh, the show on Fridays.
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60:49If you have it, sign up for the late round newsletter, JJ, you just sent out the bonus transactions, uh, not transactions.
60:56What's that? Bold predictions, bold predictions, 15 bold predictions, but we do have our transactions coming up.
61:01Yes. Yes. Yes. We have the transaction. Yeah. And yes, uh, in chat every week, Friday through the football season, there won't
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61:47Uh, if you're into, you know, if this is, if this is your hobby, which I'm assuming it is for a lot of you.
61:54Um, so, so definitely check out the late round newsletter for absolutely free over on late round.com.
62:00Still have a lot of stuff, uh, happening. Lots of people doing their drafts.
62:04So if you need a draft guide, go to late round.com.
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62:21that member Q and A's all that stuff. So with that being said, JJ final thoughts, just ready for a, well, I'm
62:28ready for the weekend to chill out a little bit, you know, be able to relax before the, uh, the amazing football season starts.
62:35I know it's going to be great. I love doing this.
62:39I love you guys. And I appreciate you for allowing me to do this.
62:43Yeah. All right. Uh, we like JJ said, we love you and we appreciate you and we'll see you next time here
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