1124: Mailbag - Jadarian Price's Debut, Michael Mayer's Outlook, and More
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
22 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 11, 2026
Published
Fri, September 11, 2026
9
Player insights
9
Players mentioned
Topics
Dalton KincaidDontayvion WicksIsaac TeSlaaJadarian PriceJahan DotsonJakobi MeyersKenneth Walker IIIMatthew GoldenMichael Mayer
Player analysis
Player insights
Dalton Kincaid
PositiveValue17:19
JJ Zachariason reveals Kincaid is his most-drafted player, citing his elite yards per route run and PPR efficiency. Even with injury history, Kincaid's role in a good offense makes him a high-upside target at his current low cost.
Insight pageDontayvion Wicks
PositiveSleeper14:13
JJ Zachariason is bullish on Wicks as a WR3 option, highlighting his career efficiency metrics, which consistently rank above the 70th percentile in yards, targets, and fantasy points per route run.
Insight pageIsaac TeSlaa
PositiveUsage11:54
JJ Zachariason expects Tesla to finish fifth in target share on his team behind Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, and Jahmyr Gibbs. He is not a reliable fantasy starter without an injury to a teammate, with a projected ceiling of around 50 targets.
Insight pageJadarian Price
NegativeUsage1:54
JJ Zachariason notes that while Price looked explosive on the ground, his Week 1 usage was disappointing for fantasy, playing only 50% of snaps, exclusively on first and second down, with a 41% route share and no third-down work. He is currently a hold as the team's backfield usage remains unpredictable and potentially more crowded once Zach Charbonnet returns.
Insight pageJahan Dotson
NegativeBust15:11
JJ Zachariason warns against overrating Dotson simply because he is listed as a WR2 on the depth chart. He faces significant target competition from Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson, and the team's quarterback play is a concern, making him unlikely to be fantasy-relevant.
Insight pageJakobi Meyers
NegativeUsage13:59
JJ Zachariason notes that while Meyers led Jacksonville in route and target share from Week 10 onward last year, his current market value is suppressed due to the emergence of Parker Washington and the presence of Brian Thomas Jr.
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
PositiveProjection6:54
JJ Zachariason is bullish on Walker's potential for a top-five finish, citing his high yards per route run (11th among RBs over the last three years) and the potential for increased target share in the Chiefs' scheme. The offense's tendency to face light defensive boxes (top-eight in 2024) provides a favorable environment for him to exceed his previous RB2 baseline.
Insight pageMatthew Golden
PositiveValue12:35
JJ Zachariason ranks Golden as his top WR3 target, noting he is expected to start as Green Bay's X-receiver. While there is some uncertainty regarding his year-one performance, his attractive ADP makes him a value pick.
Insight pageMichael Mayer
PositiveValue18:46
With Brock Bowers sidelined, JJ Zachariason views Mayer as a must-add TE1. Mayer has historically performed well in this role, averaging 12 PPR points per game and maintaining high target-per-route-run rates when Bowers was out last season.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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0:46Zacharysen. J.J. Zacharysen. What's up, everyone? It's J.J. Zacharysen in this episode 1124 of the Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast.
0:53Thanks for tuning in. Before getting into the mailbag questions this week, I want to remind you guys to check out LateRound.com.
1:00We've got brand new offerings this year for members.
1:03A much better interface for the weekly and rest of season rankings, new metrics in the data dump, and so much more.
1:10You can learn more about becoming a member by heading to LateRound.com.
1:14The first question this week is from Chris from the Members Hub.
1:18It says, J.J., now that we got to see Jadarian Price play an NFL game, what are your thoughts about his fantasy outlook moving forward?
1:26Seemed to me that he looked really good. So yeah, usually on this mailbag episode, I'm not able to talk about games that were just played.
1:34I record this show every week on Thursday. That way it can be in your podcast feed on Friday morning.
1:41So I try to avoid talking about Thursday Night Football.
1:44I get my Thursday Night Football takes out there on the Late Round show, which is recorded at 1pm Eastern every Friday on YouTube.
1:52But we had a Wednesday game this week, so I can talk about Jadarian Price.
1:57And I'm sure aside from the injuries from that game, this is probably the number one talking point.
2:02I honestly walked away from that game thinking that my projection for Price was pretty good overall.
2:08I had talked about this on shows over the summer.
2:11We can sit here and say, oh, it doesn't make any sense to use George Helani or some other running back when
2:18they spent a 30-second overall pick on Price. And to you and to me, it really doesn't make any sense.
2:25But don't forget, we're all sitting in mom and dad's basement.
2:28We're not in the front office. We're not with this coaching staff.
2:32The Seahawks are coming off a season where they played what we all thought was the superior running back in a limiting role.
2:40I mean, it's a reason that Kenneth Walker left Seattle this offseason.
2:44And the Seahawks were rewarded in the end. That can't be lost here.
2:48They won the freaking Super Bowl last year. And the player who won Super Bowl MVP was that running back who they
2:55didn't give that bell cow workload to. Don't you think that kind of confirms to them that what they did last year was smart and correct?
3:03That's why I didn't think that we could just totally dismiss all that noise during the offseason about George Helani playing a role in that backfield.
3:12But even from a prospecting perspective, Janarian Price had a limited production profile for obvious reasons.
3:17He played behind Jeremiah Love. But there were real concerns about his pass catching and his pass protection.
3:23So there was always a chance that maybe Price would be limited as a pass catcher at least to start the season.
3:30And the question was, what about the goal line?
3:33What would they do in short yardage situations? Well, a lot of reports said that Emmanuel Wilson or George Helani might play that role too.
3:41So there was always this chance that Price, despite being the most explosive back in that backfield, would lose out on the
3:48most important touches for fantasy football purposes. It didn't mean that he was some egregious pick.
3:53It just meant that we had to weigh the negatives with the positives.
3:58It's why I ended up just being one running back spot below consensus with Janarian Price.
4:03He wasn't a fade for me, but he wasn't a target for me.
4:07The upside was evident. And there are market related trends that I talked about in the draft guide that actually did favor Price.
4:14But there was also downside, which was a cap ceiling because Seattle would do Seattle things.
4:20And those Seattle things led to a Super Bowl win last year.
4:24Now look, week one is just week one. A workload that we see this week is not necessarily the workload that we're
4:31going to see in week eight or week nine or something.
4:34But I do think the workload that we saw for Janarian Price is not really the workload that we want from our fantasy football running backs.
4:43Price ended up playing half of Seattle's offensive snaps, and they were all on first and second down.
4:48He did see two thirds of those types of snaps, but he didn't play on third down at all.
4:55That resulted in a slightly lower route share than we'd ideally won.
4:59It was 41%. But let's give these numbers some context.
5:02Price had a 50% offensive snap rate among running backs with eight or more games played last year that would have ranked 33rd in the league.
5:10Price's rush share, his rush attempts divided by the team's rush attempts, sat at 45.5%.
5:15That would have ranked 20th among the same running backs last year.
5:19And it's pretty interesting because Kenneth Walker was right in that range in 2025.
5:24And then Price's route share of about 41%. That would have ranked 28th last season among all running backs.
5:30And then more anecdotally, we did see him come off the field on a play in the green zone before the Seahawks were penalized.
5:37So it seemed clear that they were taking him off in short down and distance situations.
5:43So we're looking at a player based only on week one's usage who's in a fantasy football RB3 type role.
5:49And obviously drafters want more than that. The good news is that I did think he looked really explosive.
5:55A lot of that ground game stuff that we saw in college looked like it was translating.
6:01I mean, look, it's a small sample, so we'll see.
6:04But I was at least encouraged by what I saw on the ground with Janarian Price.
6:09My consistent issue is that that team, the Seahawks, they're not playing fantasy football.
6:14They don't care about Janarian Price scoring 12 times or getting a lot of work through the air.
6:20And the more they win, the more their biases are just going to be confirmed, which is not necessarily good news for Janarian Price.
6:27So right now, I think overall, he's just a hold.
6:31We just have to cross our fingers that Seattle continues to give him more work.
6:36And I think they will. The issue is that eventually, Zach Charbonnet is probably going to be back.
6:41And that's just going to make things even more convoluted.
6:45This next question is from Andrew. It says, hey, JJ, drafts are essentially all done.
6:50So this question comes a bit late. Kenneth Walker was never a first round pick in fantasy while in Seattle.
6:56And now he's a one two turn pick. Is the situation in Kansas City actually that much better?
7:02Or is his rise in ADP a reflection of winning bias?
7:05I just can't bring myself to think the offense that Casey has become is such a significant improvement as to fundamentally change Kenneth Walker's value.
7:14Thanks. So this is year five for Kenneth Walker.
7:16In his previous four seasons, he scored more than 14 PPR points per game just once.
7:22That was in 2024, where his target share was 13.8%.
7:25In his other three seasons, he had never gotten to 8%.
7:28On one hand, you can say, why would we expect things to be different?
7:33On the other, right there, you can see that there's some room for growth.
7:38What if his target share is higher? What if it is well over 8%?
7:42The one year that it was, he was awesome in fantasy football.
7:46And since his rookie season, Walker's had really good yards per out run rates.
7:51In fact, among 56 running backs with 300 or more routes run over the last three years, Walker's yards per out run ranks 11th.
7:58A little uptick in target share can go a long way.
8:02So that's one reason to be more bullish. The Chiefs could just use him more as a receiver.
8:08And there's been a lot of chatter that they are going to use him more as a receiver.
8:14So then we look at the ground game work.
8:17Walker's been 11th in the NFL on rush attempt share since he joined the league.
8:21But there's even some wiggle room there. Last year, that fell to like 43-44%.
8:26That was his rate. That was his rush share.
8:29That's way below a bell cow back. We just talked about that with Janarian Price.
8:34So to put that all another way, there's still a little room for growth for Walker in terms of just capturing more on the ground for his team.
8:43And then there's the overall situation. A huge reason to love Walker is because he's now with Patrick Mahomes and he's now with Andy Reid in that scheme.
8:52And even though Mahomes has not been the same Mahomes over the last few years, defenses are still respecting him and this scheme.
8:59Last year, the Chiefs ranked sixth in percentage of rushes with five or fewer defenders in the box.
9:05They were fourth in percentage of plays just run in general with five or fewer defenders in the box.
9:11In 2024, they were top eight in both categories.
9:14So the idea with Kenneth Walker is that he can do more as a receiver, which in the past has gone a long way for him.
9:23But at the same time, given the scheme, given Patrick Mahomes, he could also see better defensive fronts, all while not being in a massively split backfield.
9:31It's all hypothetical. There's projection. There's forecasting going on here.
9:35That's the case for a lot of those running backs in that range this year, aside from like Chase Brown.
9:41But that baseline should still make him an RB too.
9:44And then the upside can make him legitimately a top five player at the position in fantasy football.
9:50If it all comes together. This next question is from Ben Smith on Blue Sky.
9:55It says, based on the reports of picking up the playbook quickly, do you think Kayshawn Booty will be able to make
10:02a relevant impact in the first half of the season?
10:06Look, I have no idea if Kayshawn Booty is picking up that playbook.
10:10I have no clue. I have no insight to that.
10:13But I'll reiterate some of the things that I said about Nico Collins the other day on the 10 trends episode, and just relate it to Kayshawn Booty.
10:22Because it's relevant for him too. If Booty wins that job opposite of Nico Collins, and I think he's the clear favorite.
10:29Look at who else they have. They have Jalen Knoll, who's more of a slot, and Xavier Hutchinson, who isn't very good.
10:36There's definitely some intrigue for Booty as a result.
10:39I'm anticipating the Texans playing less out of 11 personnel this year.
10:43They currently have as many tight ends on their roster as they do wide receivers.
10:48They were 6th in 11 personnel use last year.
10:51And they ran out of 12 personnel at just a 7.7% rate.
10:55That was second lowest in the league. And they, like most teams, barely played out of 13.
11:00That resulted in Houston running with 2 or fewer wide receivers on the field at once at a sub 30% rate.
11:07That was the lowest mark in the league. Nico Collins has thrived in that kind of environment.
11:13Most wide receivers are going to be better, more efficient when there are 2 or fewer wide receivers on the field.
11:20Because they're not competing with a lot of great pass catchers.
11:23They're just competing with one other wide receiver and then some tight ends or maybe a fullback and a running back.
11:30So if we get Kayshawn Booty playing on the outside, and if we see an uptick from Houston in their use of
11:3712 personnel, which I do think is kind of a lock, it could make him a really interesting player in fantasy football.
11:44He's not someone that you can trust just yet, but he's worth having on your bench.
11:49This has questions from Twitter, it's from at Gregory L Kellogg, friend of the show.
11:54He says, realistically, how many targets can we expect Isaac Tesla to get this season?
11:59And who are your top 3 wide receiver 3's?
12:02The wide receiver 3 on their team like Tesla.
12:05So I don't think we're going to be starting Isaac Tesla with that much confidence without an injury to someone in that offense.
12:12He's more than likely going to finish 5th on that team in target share.
12:17You have Aminra St. Brown, there's Jamison Williams, there's Sam Laporta, and there's Jameer Gibbs.
12:22That's a lot of firepower to overcome. If everyone's healthy, we're probably looking at a max like 50 targets.
12:28Now in terms of my favorite team wide receiver 3's, I'll just go by ADP to determine who's a wide receiver 3.
12:35Because not all wide receiver 3's are built the same.
12:38Some might consider a wide receiver 3 as the primary slot player, like a Jaden Reed.
12:44But Reed had an ADP above Matthew Golden. So to me, based on that logic, I'll say that Golden is the wide receiver 3.
12:51He was the 3rd wide receiver drafted who was on the Packers.
12:55And using that logic, I think Golden is at the top of that list.
13:00I talked about it on yesterday's Sleeper Show, but Golden is more than likely going to have every opportunity in the world
13:07to start the season as Green Bay's ex. He'll play on the outside.
13:11I think we'll see a lot of 11 personnel from the Packers, but Golden is going to get his chance.
13:18I'm still a little iffy if he can really take advantage, given his prospect profile and how he performed in year 1.
13:25But his price was actually attractive this year. The entire market just seemed iffy.
13:29So Golden found himself on some of my teams, and I'm hoping that he takes that step forward just selfishly.
13:36But there are definitely some other candidates here too.
13:39Jacoby Myers should at least get some work. I'm just concerned about what his production might look like, given Brian Thomas Jr.
13:46and Parker Washington look to be ahead of him from a target share perspective.
13:50But we got to keep in mind, Myers was traded into Week 10 last year.
13:55From Week 10 onward, he led Jacksonville in both route share and target share.
14:00The market's just lower on Myers because Brian Thomas was hurt last year, and Parker Washington emerged as a very legit weapon.
14:07But Myers probably has to be on this list.
14:10And I'll say my third one for immediate production, Dontavian Wicks.
14:13Just to throw a little curveball in there. I'm bullish about what he might be able to do to start the season.
14:21And over his career, he's been above the 70th percentile in all the major per route run metrics that we care about.
14:28Yards, targets, fantasy points per route run. I think other candidates here though would be Debo Samuel, who by the time you're listening to this, he's already played.
14:37Pat Bryant's an interesting breakout candidate. Trey Harris has the potential to dig into Quentin Johnson's work.
14:42And then as like a pure handcuff type, Ryan Flannoy.
14:46He came on last year, and if we see either CeeDee Lamb or George Pickens get hurt, Flannoy becomes a really attractive option.
14:53And then maybe Jalen McMillan too. But I'll say Matthew Golden as far and away the number one here.
14:59Then Jacoby Myers, then Dontavian Wicks is sort of my curveball.
15:03But I do think the others are interesting too, and hopefully I didn't miss anyone.
15:08This next one's from Twitter. It says, curious why nobody cares about Jahan Dotson as the wide receiver 2 on Atlanta.
15:14LMAO, is he slash Atlanta that bad? In my opinion, the fantasy football community just really, really, really overrates depth charts.
15:21I actually ranted about this on a members only live stream earlier this week.
15:26I do a waiver wire stream with members every week, and you'll usually get one or two rants out of me during
15:33that hour, hour and a half timeframe. But like Jahan Dotson being the wide receiver 2 just doesn't mean the same thing
15:40at all as some other wide receiver on another team being their wide receiver 2, regardless of the talent level.
15:47Team environment, teammate competition, all of that matters. We know we're looking for volume in fantasy football.
15:52There are some teams where a wide receiver could be the team's wide receiver 2, but he could still be walking into
15:59like a 21-22% target share or higher. Just look at Dallas.
16:03The reason George Pickens is so attractive in fantasy football is a combination of the fact that he's good, sure.
16:09But it's also a lack of competition elsewhere on that team.
16:13There's CeeDee Lamb, but everyone else in that team isn't commanding massive volume the way that George Pickens can.
16:19They won't target their running backs at a super high rate.
16:23And obviously, the offensive environment should be good in general with Dak Prescott and a high number of pass attempts.
16:29With Atlanta, Jahan Dotson's on a team with Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijon Robinson.
16:34So because he's not a George Pickens-like talent, he's not able to just leapfrog other good players in the offense.
16:40And that offense could have very bad quarterback play.
16:43And we're also not even including the fact that a player like Zachariah Branch could eventually just take over and see more work than Jahan Dotson.
16:52So could Dotson have usable weeks here and there?
16:55Sure, of course. If he's on the field, if he's running routes, that's always a possibility.
17:00But is he as a wide receiver 2 on a depth chart going to be super relevant in fantasy?
17:06Probably not. That's at least the bet that I'm making.
17:09This is asked questions from Paul from the Members Hub.
17:13It says, JJ, now that season-long drafts are done, was there anyone who you drafted a lot of and it surprised you?
17:20Or is your portfolio mostly as expected? So I had this player as a target all summer long, so it's not a surprise that I drafted him.
17:29But I am surprised by how much I drafted him.
17:32In my auctions, I was getting him for a couple of bucks.
17:36In my snake drafts, I was getting him as a double-digit round pick.
17:40The guy that I have more of than any other player in fantasy football this year is freaking Dalton Kincaid.
17:46What could go wrong, right? The logic behind Kincaid is really just math-driven.
17:51He had an elite yards per route run rate last year that's only been hit six other times since 2011.
17:57He's been one of the better tight ends in PPR points per route run since he entered the league.
18:03But he dealt with injuries the last couple of years.
18:06And that could be a reason that he's been outside the top 30 in route share.
18:12Even if he's just like 15th in route share this year, that can go a super long way given his per-route run effectiveness.
18:19And you're attaching him to a good offense where he could easily be a top two target on that team.
18:26And the nice part is that even if it doesn't work out, I'm not screwed.
18:30It was a later round pick. It was low cost in my auctions.
18:35So yeah, crazy enough, it's Dalton Kincaid. That wasn't quite the case in best ball this year, but it's definitely the case in my managed leagues.
18:43The last question this week is from Patrick. It says with Brock Bowers now sidelined for what they're saying is one to two games.
18:51How are you feeling about Michael Mayer? Yeah, super annoying news came out this week about Brock Bowers getting that procedure.
18:58And most of the fantasy football doctors that I follow, they think it's going to be longer than just a couple of games.
19:05So we'll see if you have Bowers be prepared.
19:08And one very easy way to prepare is simply by using Michael Mayer.
19:12Mayer is a good player among tight ends last year with 200 or more routes run.
19:18He's 6th in targets per route run. Bowers missed four fantasy relevant games last year.
19:22In those contests, Mayer averaged 12 PPR points per game, saw target on over 28% of his routes run, and had a 2.22 yards per route run rate.
19:31If he were to hypothetically do that across the season, he would have been 6th in points per game, 3rd in yards
19:39per route run, and 1st in targets per route run.
19:42So I have him ranked as a tight end one this week.
19:46It's a good matchup, and he's a good player who's shown up when this exact scenario has already occurred.
19:52And we have a tight end friendly system now with Clint Kubiak.
19:56So if you can still get Michael Mayer, go get Michael Mayer.
20:00That's it for today's show though. Thanks to all of you for listening.
20:04If you had subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast, make sure you are researching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found.
20:12And don't forget to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky, at LateRoundQB.
20:17Thanks for listening this week everyone, I greatly appreciate it.
20:20You get an episode of Late Round Perspectives dropping later today, and we'll also be live on the YouTube channel, youtube.com slash
20:27at LateRoundFF for the Late Round Fantasy Football show at 1pm Eastern.
20:31If you miss it, you can go back and watch it, but it will also find itself in this podcast feed every Saturday morning.
20:39But again, thanks for listening, and enjoy week one.
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